James Douma On Tesla’s Future, XPeng Copies Tesla & BYD’s $1B Deal!
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- Опубліковано 9 лип 2024
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Edited by: Roshan Khatiwada
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I had problem comprehending trading in general. I tried watching other UA-cam trading channels, but they made the concepts more complicated. I was almost giving up until when i discovered content and explain everything in detail. The videos are easy to follow
I will advise you should stop trading on your own if you keep losing.
If you can, then get a professional to trade for you i think that way your assets are more secure
I'd recommend Cassandra Robert , her profit is great even when there's a dip
I'm also a huge beneficiary of her 😊
😊She has made success easier than we thought
When I clicked on this program I thought James Douma was on the program. Hans image should be there instead. Jeannine
Are you saying Hans < James?
@@d.r.656 stupid
@@d.r.656no
Indeed.. goes for most videos lately
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Herbert: If you are going to milk James Douma’s article, at least provide a link to that article!
We have some of the BRIGHTEST PEOPLE in our TESLA COMMUNITY!!
Also some of the best click baiters too
It's sadly ironic that the Chinese government seems to have a much more pragmatic and therefore supportive attitude to Elon Musk's technology aproaches than the US government.
There's an upside and a downside for countries run by autocrats. If the autocrats are wise and take good care of the populace then the country is able to advance quickly. The downside is that only some autocrats are 'good' rulers. Some are terrible, some even start good but turn bad as power goes to their heads.
China is run by engineer types who are fact based and can do math. That's the up side.
It's disgusting how much the US has worked against Tesla , due to oil and gas
US is weaken by their internal politic...
I thought this is an interview with James :(
It's not James !!
Link to James Douma's article?
Haven’t seen James around much lately, good to see him around.
Um he isn’t in this😂
You should try to get James again on your show. It is the right time now with FSD 12.3.4 out, it would be good to have his opinion on it.
Why doesn't he know that Geely is manufacturing the car for Waymo for $27,000 with all sensors included?
One of the keys to cracking FSD is having a large volume of video data to train on. That has been a Tesla moat up until now. I don't think it is much of a stretch to imagine the CCP mandating the upload of video data from every Chinese EV on the road in China regardless of manufacturer to a common repository used to train a Chinese FSD model.
I can’t tell you how many times I have been click-baited by James Doumas face 😂😂
Xpeng whrre the ones that stole early FSD code.
There will 2 dmoniant systems, Tesla being Apple abd Xpeng being Android.
I dont hear anyone talking about this but ive been watching the euro finals and copa americas cup. All ive seen for the last month has been advertising for BYD. 2or 3 aditional Continents they are coming for!!!
What happens to vision only during no light times. Are driving lights sufficient?
Herbert doesn’t know the history of XPEV, no way that Tesla will license FSD to Xpev first.
Speaking of Skype. When Microsoft took it over I never used it again. They disabled my skype login and tried to force me to used my Microsoft credentials for skype. I lost all my old contacts and data. I never used it again and I will never use it.
"..." means more to come.
another key issue with Lidar and cameras is device perception contention. The Lidar 'sees' something on the road, but the camera does not (or vice versa). How does the software decide which device to 'believe'.
lidar has significantly higher latency also than cameras
The title a bit misleading, james Douma is not in the video, although his twitter article is being discussed. Also, Communist Party of China (CPC) is the official party name, not CCP.
common guys, $200k for Waymo and cruise is a Prototype testing cost. U should both know that the cost will be reduced at Volume Production level. Right now they also using donor cars and ANY vehicle can be used later. None of us know what the end game plan is, Maybe a specific Robotaxi is built and tech inserted at Manufacturing ?
This is correct and they shouldn't be saying that.
They should be able to reduce the cost of a special made Waymo taxi down to not importantly more than a Tesla robotaxi. Spread over a few hundred thousand miles the amount wouldn't meaningfully impact profits. But the issue may well be operating costs. If Waymo has to spend money making and maintaining detailed maps and has to keep remote drivers on hand to deal with unmapped issues, that costs.
Tesla is likely to win big on opex. And, because of no need for detailed maps and setting up remote driver services, should expand very quickly giving them the 'first mover' advantage.
How will they auto charge?
Speed of innovation keeps Tesla in front of Chinese competitors
I cant wait for robotaxis in Australia. When i use Uber. Mostly for a 50km trip in important times. I will get a service that accepts then declines. Calls me and offers the service at a greater price. Sometimes that is double.
Hey Hans. It’s not CCP. It’s “CPC.”
Who will own the fleet of cars? I have several friends with teslas and NONE of them will lend out their car to another user.
A few yrs ago Elon mentioned possibly bringing back radar that’s less expensive. This may enhance FSD performance and safety in heavy fog and rain. Wondering if this might be still under consideration? Enjoying your content Mr. Ong, thanks!
There was a problem with phantom breaking , that radar would have helped with but j think it's solved now
When you use "they", "their", "them" over and over we get confused on who you're talking about.
I wonder if the ban on exporting high tech to China is still in effect and if it is still in effect, how will this affect Tesla licensing FSD to Chinese firms?
Tesla car computers are already in China. Tesla might be required to keep their training supercomputer(s) out of China. But that seems to already be arranged. China has agreed to allow data to flow to the US. I suspect they are excluding certain types of data such as what cars are entering/parking at military sites.
Most American Tesla personal car owners are not going to be willing to let their car be occupied by strangers to taxi around. Get real. It will only work if the car was bought for the purpose.
Dear Herbert. I bet Robotaxi is the future. But we must realize that at the present moment(2024) only the compelling 25K$ compact, can create a demand of 5 mill units a year. That figure were claimed by the very person(EM) who have actually seen and probably tested the car, and who in the end decides, what the Gigas are going to pump out in 2024, and whats possible comming down down the road. Legislature are a worldvide huge roadblock, that even a Tesla may repect. Per in Denmark 😎🇩🇰
love the logical breakdown of historical tech innovatiion and market share adoption caopared to Tesla robo taxi moat
Waymo costs way more !! Lol ! Really good one herbert ...
I could be completely wrong but I think HD Radar is likely, as it could give FSD superpowers, like driving in heavy fog. There are also non-human biological analogs to this, like beluga whales and bats. Possibly, it would still be unsafe to drive in heavy fog, even with it?
Bend/Medford a nail biter. Medford/Brookings, only has a 6 slot station in Crescent City with no other stations north til Bandon.
Herbert turn your mic up,please
N. Tesla's Birthday today
MAYA makes a new product technology introduction successful: Most Advanced, Yet Acceptable
Couple of problems. Interventions will have to be zero so they’ll need drivers to begin with or telematics.
They’ll be unable to price lower than Uber because of the cost of the driver and lack of operating experience.
Therefore they’ll be losing a lot of money for a few years probably especially if they have to undercut to get a foothold.
The Mexico factory construction is on hold so that’s 2 years waiting to start to meet the proposed huge demand.
Texas has been under construction for 4 years this month and still is only producing about 375,000 vehicles.
Assembling supply lines can only increase at a max rate of probably 300,000 vehicles per year per factory with excess capacity so annual 50% growth isn’t happening again I don’t think.
Chapters would be useful. Where is James Douma?
Lower cost than Uber, yes. It is yet to be shown whether it's less expensive than owning your own car.
Conhecimento e vida
FSD + C-V2X is better than FSD alone. C-V2X is a superpower quasi sensor because it can see behind obstacles and through fog unlike cameras. Plus vehicles talking to each other can communicate their intentions, speed, and direction to each other. Cell phones canned incorporate C-V2X to protect pedestrians, bikes, ... C-V2X needs to be fast-tracked!
How much "through fog" is actually needed? Cameras apparently see into fog better than humans. Computers are smart and won't drive faster than their ability to stop if something appears out of the fog. You don't want your car blasting through fog if a number of other drivers are using only human eyes.
At some point we may be able to control traffic by cars talking to each other. But to do that we'd have to get all the "mute and deaf" cars off roads. That's a couple decades away.
I doubt that Tesla would be allowed to partner with a Chinese company since it would mean the transfer of technology and computer hardware for each vehicle.
England Country side is full of chinese electrics, feels like they match the amount of Tesla i see.
An AI computer will think up the complex problems to feed the high speed Aurora computer.
China wants to be a major player in the future automobile world, which is all about robotaxis. A huge hurdle aside from tariff barriers will be to provide acceptable data warehouse security for western countries, and licensing Tesla FSD/robotaxi S/W would be a tidy solution given that Elon and Tesla have already proved their data security to the Chinese leadership. Licensing Tesla FSD/robotaxis will enable the Chinese to flood the world with robotaxi fleets, and tariffs will have an insignificant impact. The next decade will be wild.
GM had over 50% USA market share into the early 1970's, Japanese brands properly trimmed that then Euro brands too.
Detroit is an information silo. They don't see what is happening outside their "We're the Best" bubble very well. That may be the general progress of great companies that have risen and fallen throughout history.
@@bobwallace9753 I think if Tesla remains engineering led, it will always be a good business. The MBAs and marketing/sales people killed GE, HP, and Boeing.
@@machoopichoo2
If Tesla remains engineer-driven. But what happens if the majority of stockholders decide they want more cash out than growth? Then they elect board members who appoint an MBA type as CEO. There are ways that even the strongest company can fail over time.
@@bobwallace9753 At some point divvies and/or buybacks will be appropriate, when profits are so massive that there isn't enough growth imaginable to spend it on. I expect that by end of decade.
That doesn't mean an MBA for CEO and w half the shareholder base being us retailers, who've so far been over 90% on Elon's side, that's likely a long way off but we have to stay engaged.
@@bobwallace9753 Completely fair. Hopefully, because of the unusually high retail investor base, other companies like NVIDIA proving engineer led companies are great, and the debacles of past, "adult in the room" CEO appointments (e.g., Apple, admittedly jobs wasn't an engineer but a visionary and he knew more about tech than people think) and orgs like HP, boards have learned their lesson. But probably not.
Can you believe Apple had a CEO who was head of sales at a sugar water company? He wasn't even from tech.
This robotaxi is going to be the public transportation that people will be willing to use. In the future people will have vehicles, but they will be specilized vehiles that they drive on the weekend, or to special events. Driving to Sonic in a 67 GTO will be far cooler than being there in a Robotaxi, or more likely just waiting for the Tesla BOT and Tesla taxi to bring your your food from Sonic.
It's going to be better than the hyperloop
@@patricaomas8750 I can see high speed train being great for city to city and then take a RoboTaxi when you get there.
..and how is the company going to fund it? Remember can already raid the defoliating money tree 😁😁😁
If Tesla licenses FSD to other companies, fairly early, it might cause other companies to not invest money to create their own FSD. Tesla could end up with a modest share of every robotaxi mile profit in the world.
I like his 1K foot view. The details is infrastructure were the United States is way behind
The militarily applications for this is MASSIVE - CCP isn’t stupid, I’m not sure why no one is seeing this
If James Douma's FSD moat analysis is accurate why don't we see EV and legacy automakers lining up to license FSD?
Pride. Oh, and not wanting to be fired for backing the wrong horse.
We don't see things until after they happen, in general. I'd bet heavily that Tesla has already talked to multiple companies about licensing FSD once it's complete. I think Ford might have had serious talks as Farley has mentioned Ford's EVs will have eight cameras, which sounds Tesla-compatible. But the deal will almost certainly be signed before it's made public.
XPeng won't be able to come up with its own FSD without copying from Tesla, period
LIDAR is not just about cost, its about functionality. Name a aerospace or military redundancy that is worse than the main system. It doesn't exist, redundancy doesn't work that way. A camera is much more information-rich than LIDAR so using LIDAR as backup doesn't make sense. Using it as a "confirmation" tool is even worse, because if the information doesn't align, what should the system believe? The high information stream camera, or the less capable LIDAR?
LIDAR is simpler from an engineering standpoint: it outputs XYZ coordinates of a cloud of points. Engineers can do math on that information even in Excel. THAT was the mistake: making it easy for engineers to treat data doesn't really mean it will end up being a more capable system, because the data stream is much poorer than cameras.
Can Xpeng (or any other manufacturer) replicate the video AI learning model that Tesla employed and eventually "catch up" when FSD has already been fully solved? I know they won't be Tesla to solving it, but who's to say that FSD will be monopolized by Tesla forever. All others have the benefit of learning from Tesla's mistakes as well as more powerful GPU's, compute, lower training costs in the future. Tesla could very well solve it, and then 3 years later other manufacturers copy the same training method and also solve it.
It's all about the data. Tesla has incredible amounts of video of good drivers driving well in all sorts of conditions and situations. If you don't have data then you don't have anything for your AI supercomputer to learn from.
@@bobwallace9753 I understand Tesla has the data advantage. Let's say Tesla fully solves FSD in 2026. They started full on video based training what was it, last year? So 2023-2026, years of training with 6million vehicles on the road. From 2026 onwards, other car companies must license FSD from Tesla to still be able to sell vehicles and they install cameras just like Tesla has right now. Let's say a few more years down the road, the other successful companies Ie. maybe BYD, Geely, Zeekr, Xpeng float to the top and end up having 6million+ vehicles on the road covered in cameras. Now they have the hindsight of knowing it can be done, how to do it and probably have lower compute/training costs in the future as GPU's get more advanced. At that point it could just be a matter of 3 years or less of video training and all of a sudden the competitors also have a fully solved FSD. What's stopping that from happening?
@@stryder1587
Tesla has been collecting data since ~2015. They've had pretty much a decade of discovering edge cases, the weird stuff that happens very infrequently but has to be dealt with by a good driver.
Tesla has recently said that they are still discovering new edge cases but they've become very infrequent. They have years of millions of their EVs and they've discovered large numbers of edge cases that a new company would need time to find.
Each version of Tesla FSD that is released is now a brand new version of FSD, created from scratch. They start with a 'dumb' supercomputer, feed in immense amounts of video, and let the computer train itself. It takes only a few weeks. It's not the learning time. It's the data collection time.
with robotaxi who needs a $14,000 car.
keep TESLA close makes it easier to copy, borrow, acquire.
Tesla to $1000 very soon.
Please don't partner with Chinese car maker(s) for FSD technology, Elon!
The LiDAR argument is not as simple as “you don’t need it”. It’s a fact that a car with cameras can drive on a very foggy road ONLY as fast as a human can see through the fog. That means driving at 20 or 25 mph on a 70 mph road. With LiDAR a car could continue to drive 70+ mph through the fog safely. But the point is, how many people can afford a $150k to $200k car just to drive fast through the fog? Very few, but perhaps a definite few! The vast majority need an affordable car that can drive autonomously through most conditions, with cameras. The camera argument is that the car can do most of what we need a car to do at an affordable price. But if you can afford a LiDAR equipped car to slice through the fog, then go for it!
Imagine. A road with a bunch of humans struggling to drive through fog at 25 MPH and suddenly a car appears, going 70 MPH.
@@bobwallace9753 That’s an extreme case. But it’s very likely to become normal with most highway driving eventually. This is why humans eventually may be restricted to drive only on uncrowded country roads where their slow human reaction time is not a problem. Only machines can operate within inches of tolerance between vehicles, etc. It’s why horses were further and further restricted as motor cars took over the highways.
@@flyshacker
People get in serious accidents all the time on uncrowded country roads. They, in fact, are likely more dangerous in foggy conditions than are highways.
It's going to take a couple decades to get non-smart cars off roads.
@@bobwallace9753If you have nearly all self-driving cars on the hwy and one drunk or sober human driver making mistakes, the other cars will have reaction times far beyond what is necessary to avoid the human hazard. FOR SAFETY ALONE, self-driving cars are likely to become prevalent far sooner. Who wants to coexist with the far higher risks of a human behind the wheel?? Go drive your old car with the steering wheel around a vacant track somewhere, just like you ride a horse for leisure today.
@@flyshacker
Apparently you do not understand politics.
I do see a future where all cars on public roads are self-driving. But that future is likely well more than 20 years from now. More likely, at least 20 years after the last non-FSD car is manufactured.
Hans says that if he were Elon, he would not partner with the Chinese. That’s because Hans has the usual American bias against the Chinese, whereas Elon is not like that. I also noticed Hans keeps referring to the Chinese government.CCP. It is actually CPC. But then, why not just say the Chinese government? Isn’t that easier?
Because Elon needs to play the game. China is all itself and its interests. Tesla's technology is a big part of that. Again, China wants to replace US globally and wants to devalue the USD. No bias but facts
Elon has a mission and in the end he is fine with it, when China handles the transformation to a clean energy future..... XPeng already stole Teslas FSD software. Now they do not need to steal it, they just get it handed over from the Chineses government......
”Knowing the enemy enables you to take the offensive, knowing yourself enables you to stand on the defensive …The Art of War .
Xi may look like Winnie-the-Pooh, but he's no teddy bear. 🙂
Look at the history of China with American companies. Once the technology is transferred they abandon the partnerships. Tesla is the only 100% owned company. And nowTesla has been approved to test FSD there. Only because Elon went to India to discuss building a factory there. China has 90 plus companies fighting for EV market. How many really make money? These companies are all subsidized from CPC. The whole strategy in my opinion is once they can have technology independently Tesla will be persona non gratis
So, do you like Tesla or what?
If you own Uber shares...time to sell.
THIS VIDEO IS BAIT AND SWITCH. JAMES DOUMA DOES NOT APPEAR IN IT. SHAME ON YOU HERBERT!!!
You can never compare BYD and Tesla. Chinese build quality is dreadful.
Hey it won’t matter if a consumer can buy a $14k vehicle with similar features compared to 25k. It’s mass market appeal and mass market share.
The difference from Spotify is that we are prepared to pay for convenient travelling! Spotify had users, but not so much income from those cheapskates. We will pay half of what Uber charges, to begin with.
So, this is just umlimitedly dumb. XPENG is ditching LIDAR on its Europe release to start with since the Lidars are to expensive to justify for an ADAS system. Vision with a Radar is sufficient for DRIVER ASSIST. XPENG is NOT, I repeat NOT building a robo taxi without LIDAR, that is not the story here. It is an impossible task, Tesla have proven this already. It backfired when the radar was ditched by Tesla but add a radar again and it will save lives as long the driver is paying attention to what the car misses. ADAS is for higway driving an adding safety to the drive. Benefits from LIDAR of course but most likeky not worth the cost and effort.
What will slow things down is the lack of charging stations and the need for power stations. These need to ramp up more quickly for this flash increase of EVs.
Tesla can pump out new charging stations as demand increases. Since Tesla is a very data driven company they are going to be able to project when and how many new chargers will be needed in plenty of time to get them installed.
And what we are likely to see is businesses like restaurants located close to highways begging Tesla to use part of their parking lots.
@@bobwallace9753 Second point is very true. It's a great way for a businesses to keep customers longer, build loyalty, attract affluent customers, and tout "green" credentials.
..and on what real estate. The growth in sales has far outgrown the infrastructure. Even as the company loses market share, the fad appeal of the EV sector wane. Who wants to own a EV when it takes hours to recharge. That’s find a station, wait to use it then Actually use it when a consumer can buy a hybrid for a fraction of the price. Refuel it in 5 minutes for another 600 or 700 mile journey.
100M’s live in high rise apartments. They won’t be charging EV’s at home. They’ll be looking for gas stations for their hybrids.
@@user-zm6kj4gn4v LOL, is that why China has already hit 50% NEV adoption, years prior to CCP mandates, in a country with ~10% single family home ownership?
"Fad appeal"? Like the smartphone or streaming services?
@@user-zm6kj4gn4v
People probably wouldn't want EVs if they had to wait hours for them to charge. But they don't. If you need a quick charge that takes about 20 minutes. While you're eating or peeing, which you do on long trips.
If you only have a low voltage outlet where you park does it really matter if your EV charges over a few hours while you sleep?
Where will chargers be located? Probably a lot of them will go into existing parking lots at restaurants and grocery stores. Places where people go and spend a half hour or so already.
EVs made up 18% of global new cars sales in 2023. So far, in 2024, they are about 22% of global new car sales. Their market share continues to rise.
Hybrids are just a desperation move by legacy companies that are unable to produce EVs that people want to buy. They have to cut their carbon footprint but rather than build vehicles that will let them survive long term, they are sticking a few batteries in ICEVs, improving their MGP numbers a bit, and sealing their doom. And they are spending billions of dollars convincing people that hybrids are better. Stick a filter on a cigarette and claim it's healthier for you.
wrr
I find this robotaxi stuff to be BS. I own a tesla. Im not letting anyone sit in my car without me being there. Is this robotaxi thing custom built cars managed 100% by Tesla? How does the csr charge when its low on charge? Who is going to plug it in...i dont think ppl are thinking thru all the issues.
These things have already been outlined, with even greater detail most likely coming on 8/8. It will be a combination of Tesla owned Robotaxi's, fleet operated Robotaxi's and individuals like yourself having their Tesla be a Robotaxi when their not using it. Obviously if you don't want yours to be a robotaxi that is completely your choice, but that will be the mix of Tesla Robotaxi's. In terms of who is going to charge it, etc., that's where these fleet operators come into play with cleaning and charging.
8/8
@@IanT85who’s going to be cleaning the mess when some drunk or drug users jumps in throws up and does anything else in the car. Then there’s couples who will do the obvious especially when there’s no one else in the car.
Who’s going to let their car out for more than half of the time when these things are more than likely to happen.
It’s going to be at night most of the time. The worse time for spillages of various kinds happen.
Good luck getting to work after a weekend of binge drinking and partying with all of the leftovers from 100’s of tanked individuals.
Something tells me the owner might be catching another form of transport not their own car…
@@user-zm6kj4gn4v Watch Herbert's video he published on July 1 titled "BREAKING: Tesla Executives DROP 5 Important News". It goes through in detail all the sanitation features they are implementing into these Robotaxi's. This is in addition to the sanitation services that would occur at the fleet depot's. And again, it is 100% up to an individual owner whether or not they want their Tesla in the Robotaxi network. Tesla is also building their own that will be owned by Tesla so they don't have to depend on private owners.
clickbait = dislike
But we do seem to be quite a ways from actual FSD. One intervention per year is one accident per year. That’s still wildly. Unacceptable.
An intervention is not equal to an accident.
Interventions are rarely critical, & your statement doesn't make any sense. However, there is definently room to improve.
Tesla is very small,Its a Joke of a company!