Who Will Harris Pick For VP? | 538 Politics Podcast
Вставка
- Опубліковано 21 жов 2024
- In this installment of the 538 Politics podcast, the crew drafts potential running mates for expected Democratic presidential nominee Kamala Harris. Who will the veep choose for veep?
Website: fivethirtyeight...
Merch: fivethirtyeight...
Twitter: / fivethirtyeight
Facebook: / fivethirtyeight
Podcast: itunes.apple.c...
still no video :(
I hope abc has put video on hiatus while they are gearing up to get them in a real studio
I’d be very curious about how important the VP pick is in relation to the presidential candidate’s perceived health. I think part of the reason Palin hurt McCain is because McCain was old and a Palin presidency was seen as a real possibility. I would say the same probably applies to Trump/Vance.
It is hard to imagine that Trump would be able to do a full four year term. His health seems to be in decline as well. So Vance is very much a possible president if you vote for Trump.
Yah this needs to be discussed
@@rolanddeschain965 McCain wasn't despised in his old age.
@@butchjohnson9736I mean maybe. I wouldn’t say it’s hard to imagine though. He will cling to power if he can and I don’t feel like he exerts a lot of effort when he’s president. He just does what he always does, walks around and screams and plays golf. I doubt he’d decline to a point where the decision is made to replace him because he won’t let them make that decision, so it just comes down to if he has a health emergency and that is very unpredictable for a 78-82 year old even if they are showing decline.
@@krishadyn5211no, he was very respected and popular. The point though is that he was old in 2008, so people were looking at whether he would make it to 2012 and thus whether they could stomach the idea of Palin becoming President by inheritance.
Andy Beshear for VP
I swear the comparison of Tim Walz to Tim Kaine was purely triggered by sharing the same first name...
Tim Walz would be amazing a draw working class voters from all the rust belt states.
Haven't listened to all of it yet. But that is insane. Kaine was a charisma black hole and didn't appeal to blue collar/rural at all. Walz has super Uncle of America vibes and appeals to those obtainable voters.
I disagree that the VP pick doesn't matter. Having a popular Governor focused in the Rust belt states campaigning everyday could get the 5,000 votes which could flip this election.
😂😅😂😅😂😅
Was this before Cooper declined VP
The way Buttigieg has been slamming Vance in interviews practically every day for the last week makes me thing he's auditioning for the role, he seems to think he has a good shot at it.
IMO it's a similar identity politics risk as having Whitmer on the ticket. Leaning hard into youth and identities that are too far from what swing state Americans would vote for. Also, Buttigieg polled terribly with black voters in 2020, which is probably why he made a deal with the Biden administration to get some reflected influence. Although Kamala will boost black voter interest, Buttigieg could weigh it back down.
God I hope not. He has a *very* bright future but not right now.
@@icarusridickerus Jim Clyburn, who single handedly handed South Carolina to Biden in the 2020 primaries with his endorsement, has spoken twice in the past week on potential VP picks, and both times, he greatly praised Pete over the other candidates to the point it was essentially an endorsement.
If Clyburn says Pete is OK, I don't think black democrats are going to fight him on it. Yes he's just one man but his opinion matters more than anyone else I can think of when it comes to reassuring black voters that white politicians actually care about the issues that affect them.
@@icarusridickerus Saying the Harris VP choice has to be a white straight man is MOST definitely a DEI hire and identity politics. Better just pick someone who going to be best at the job.
They mentioned Shapiro as someone who might be perceived to be too slick and swarmy, and honestly I think Buttigieg is the swarmiest of them all. As a gay man, I can say that I don't think he will add anything to the ticket.
Should be Beshear or Walz
Beshear!
shapiro or kelly
@@peterrobinson1041No to anti-union Kelly or Genocide Josh.
@@blackmesa232323it will be Josh. Cope and vote to be American bebe.
No union Kelly no. Not gonna happen
@@noshttaken If it is Josh, c'est la vie, he adds a lot to the ticket. I just hope people remember when the next primaries come around that his foreign policy and education views do not represent the views of the future of America.
.
💙 VOTE HARRIS 💙
Jon Stewart ain't happening but it would be the galaxy brain choice.
Those third round picks weren't that spicy at all. A spicy third round pick would be Stacy Abrams. She delivered Georgia while she wasn't even on the ticket.
But she lost the governors race
@@thatgirlray2765 She lost due to illegal voter suppression. But the courts ruled they couldn't do anything retroactively even if they agreed it was illegal. And unlike Trump she gracefully conceded.
Hoping for Tim Walz!
Andy Beshear man
It would be an awesome pick
From PA and I like Andy. We need Shapiro in PA, selfishly.
😂😅😂😅😂😅
The fact that he was like a third round pick here is insane. He's the perfect foil to JD Vance
Number 1 VP pick Walz for me as he has strong Mid West and blue collar appeal with his down to earth style, won house seat in rural district Trump won by +15, veteran, strong on labor, excites younger and female voters with his policies. Strong speaker, coined the “weird” meme. Followed by Beshear and Pritzker. While Shapiro helps with Pen he might hurt Michigan and Wisconsin and parts of the base because of some of the perception against him and his charter school stance. Kelly if you want to go very centrist, which I don't think is the right move, and mediocre speaker. Mayor Pete I don’t think the country is ready for yet unfortunately as well as his McKinsey, Ivy League vibes for blue collar voters.
Not sure when this was recorded but Cooper has announced he's not available for this job...
Walz! Walz! Walz!
We are using UA-cam for this, why is there no video? Everybody wants it back
Because they want the increased exposure youtube gives them without the expense of paying a video editor. It's super lame. Should be against YT TOS.
@@steveyoung9687 it’s kind of odd because they have clips of the podcast with video on ABC news, so it seems they’re taping, but they are only editing video together for excerpts and not the whole podcast
Just saw Tim Waltz and he is perfect.
His name is Tim Walz
Tim Walz 🤞🏽
I’m hoping for Beshear I think he could help suppress a Red Fever in the south east. Winning Kentucky twice is no small feat.
Shapiro may help her win PA and lose Michigan. I agree about Tim Walz! Yes.
there are enough arab voters in Pennsylvania to tank the state too
Jon Stewart would win them the election. Arguably the only better communicator on hostile turf than Pete B, is very supportive rather than being a hog w/regard to charisma being higher, injects a ton of energy into the race where needed, has the track record of lobbying for 9/11 vets, has the ability to spread a few percentage point gains across the country due to his name recognition. If it’s Kelly ultimately, though, they need to lean into the Astronaut thing as NASA is one of the few favorable government “brands.” Not many people buy IRS or DOT merch for fashion. If Kelly and Harris speak to increasing NASA’s ambition it would win a lot of engagement in many demographic groups. Oddly didn’t hear anyone talk about the manor in which the names on the yard signs would sound, which seems like an at least relevant part of strategy. Shallow, but so often are the unconscious motivators of the electorate.
Nathaniel had the benefit of the first round pick, which was huge. But I think he made all the right choices.
I love the episodes with Mary!
It seems weird to me to hear someone actually say it's "unusual" for Vance to have started underwater in polling. It's almost as if it's an odd concept for people to actually know who Vance really is.
Jon Stewart? He certainly knows how to work an audience, but I'm not sure he'd be thrilled with the pay cut and the cruddy hours. Very good discussion on everyone's top two picks, though.
Even during the 2016 election, I could not remember who Clinton’s running mate was.
You guys have the smartest news show. I'm so glad you posted this.
538 smartest? Lol 😂😆
😂😂😂
Pete Buttigieg!
when was this recorded? Whitmer and Cooper both already took themselves out of the veepstakes
22:20 I was actually a massive fan of the Tim Kaine pick and think he seemed to gel w HC's style very well. I am sad that history and conspiracy robbed us of picking that ticket.
Like apparently 87% of Americans, I had no idea who Tim Walz was, but first speech from him was an absolute banger, so first impression is good!
please include the video
honestly 100% on board with stewart! harris/stewart 2024
If I were her, I'd pick Shapiro. He's popular even among Republicans, he can balance the ticket, and he's from Pennsylvania, which is very important to win for both candidates, the biggest swing state with 19 Electoral Votes.
When will you guys update the election forecast with Harris as the Democratic Nominee?
The putative negative of Vance combined with the putative positive of Shapiro means President Harris in 2025
Really tired of the old argument that the Dems wont risk the AZ Senate seat. It's been explained a ton. The Governor replaces the empty seat with a member of their party. Kelly's seat would be filled by a Dem and there would be a special election in 2026.
That’s all true but could the replacement win in the special election? Can never tell in AZ
Not even their party. Even if the governor is an R it has to be same party as the one leaving. The worry is the special election 2 years later. And Kelly's extreme centrism hurts more then it helps. As the supposed centrist voters are a very small sliver of obtainable voters in the swing states. Applauding Bibi's speech a couple of times alone could lose you Michigan, Wisconsin and Minnesota possibly.
Shapiro is the worst option, in my opinion. He brings Pennsylvania, but doesn't appeal to the Rust Belt broadly. He furthermore, risks losing Michigan completely and totally. Lastly, he doesn't help in the Sun Belt, and may be a liability in the South (in otherwords: Georgia) due to bigotry.
Kelly is a bit better, but his anti-union position will hurt the ticket in the Rust Belt, which is the most important region in this election. The same conservatively leaning, pro-labor, uneducated, white voters, who Kamala needs to pick a VP to bring over to her camp, are the same ones who could be offended by the fact that Kelly is bad on labor, and has unions actively speaking out against picking.
Walz I think is coming up fast as being really charismatic and a good messenger, and he has great politics that can transform Kamala's ticket into a pro-family, very common-sense progressive ticket. He's the kind of guy that can be significantly more left leaning than Kamala, and still seem moderate, purely based on race and gender and regional optics. I think he has national appeal, because of his grandfatherly, and happy appearance, while having a strong message for suburban whites.
Beshear is similar to Walz, in my estimation. He is inoffensive to everyone, and is extremely white and extremely southern and extremely Christian, which will do heavy lifting in reducing votes nationally for Trump. It won't bring over southern states, but it will give many people permission to vote for Kamala, who wouldn't otherwise. I think Beshear has the strongest down-ballot effect for Democrats. Georgia, being the only in-play Southern State, is already probably a toss-up, if not lean blue, but I think Beshear knocks it another category more safe for Democrats. I think he does zero harm nationally. I think his nearness to Pennsylvania helps him to deliver that state along with Shaprio as a surrogate. I think the Rust Belt breaks even, but definitely favors him over Kelly. I think the Sunbelt, his southern twang will help just as much, maybe more, than Kelly. As a final long-shot: Beshear could make Texas and Florida competitive. Still likely to lean R, but you never know. Abortion and Weed are on the ballot in Florida, and Texas has consistently tracked further left each cycle.
Very intuitive. I’m leaning Walz as I feel he will attract working class voters across all the rust belt states and he does no harm. Kelly is pretty flat as a speaker and may throw a wet blanket on the enthusiasm . Shapiro is an excellent speaker but could be harmful because of his stance on Gaza and dampen college aged voters and Michigan voters. Pete would be amazing but could harm because of Bigotry.
Yup Walz and Beshear are probably the best. Even if Shapiro and Kelly are the obvious ones. All in the end are pretty good though. Even if personally disagree with some.
Hey, i just got back from a 2 week vacation as well. Anything happen while I was out?
I know that Mark Kelly was an astronaut - but does he have enough gravity as a candidate?
I think Tim Kaine was a good pick, but the campaign told him to go out and be aggressive, which was not his thing at all.
Beshear seems to be the best at speaking well about common decency - coming back home to a healed America.
We need some Minnesota nice on the ticket. TIM WALZ!!!!!
It sounds like y'all are sayin "waltz" instead of walz.
I thought this was about who will Harris pick?
Stewart would be an inspired pick.
Picking Beshear so late is going to age poorly here lol
How are you not talking about Trumps age when it comes to Vance?
I don’t think that the argument that Buttigieg will hurt the ticket because he’s gay holds water. I have talked to many of my friends who are former Trump voters who say that his sexual orientation doesn’t matter, and all of them admire his competence. Furthermore, Buttigieg will bring in more.
Josh Shapiro's voice when he gets excited gives me vibes of an excited Howard Dean. Needs to practice a more stoic voice, lower it an octave. Obviously works well in Pennsylvania, not so much in other regions. Otherwise very acceptable VP. Could handle debate with Shay-Dee Vance on his bad day IMHO.
Shapiro will decrease Harrises chance in Michigan because of his views on Gaza. Kelly won’t help either because of his views on labor. Walz and Buttigieg are the best choices.
Im feeling Walz I don’t think it’s Pete’s time. He would be amazing too though
@@shelshele Yeah Pete can be secretary of state and can then run in a strong 2032 field. With Walz, Shapiro, Wes Moore, Beshear, Whitmer, Pritzker, AOC etc.
Bit disappointed that Buttigieg didn’t come up until the very end of the second round…
Love. Tim. Walz.
Need the video back please!!!
Mark Kelly would be a great match up against the Trump ticket: military experience, wife was almost assassinated, astronaut, Southernwest border legitimacy & nuance.
We need him in his senate seat and he’s no the greatest speaker.
@@shelshele And extremely centrist like to an unhealthy degree. (Although that might just be because Arizona). And those are just a very small sliver of the obtainable voters this election.
Walz! Plz let it be Walz!!!
Sorry to do this have 538 said anything about of no video anymore?
Tim ryan from Ohio. Outperformed biden and Clinton. He has Midwest appeal and the dems don't create a vacancy. He also has more federal experience than kamala but is younger
I think I was convinced by the North Carolina governor.
Coop is cool, but he withdrew.
I really like Brittany, hope she comes on the pod again.
Mitt Romney would be the VP that would unite the anti Trump factions
Bring back the video.
I like shapiro but his charisma comes from sounding just like obama. I noticed it and then the daily show confirmed it so i wasn’t imagining it
It’s def Kelly
They need to impeach her now
John Stewart for president 😂
No video??
My guess is Mark Kelly, he's a genaric Democrat that won't distract from Kamala. Everyone else is saying Josh Shapiro so maybe everybody else is right.
I thought Kelly for sure until today
Everyone else??? Lots of hype for Walz as well.
It has to be Shapiro. We MUST carry Pennsylvania to win. If he's disqualified for some reason, Walz. Still rust belt, older but not too old, appeals to old white men who are anxious about Kamala.
Keep Pete and Kelly in their roles as excellent surrogates.
I'm from PA and many younger voters don't like his views on Gaza, and parents don't like his support for school vouchers. I'd rather Pete Buttigieg cos we need his sharp mind and excellent communication skills to continue the enthusiasm.
Walz then Shapiro. Walz would bring no harm to the ticket but Shapiro could harm the ticket. Many young voters would not vote if Shapiro is on the ticket due to his stance on GAZA.
@@rebeccamoll8779 Not just younger voters. Big Muslim American populations in Michigan, Wisconsin and Minnesota. Walz can speak to the blue collar and rural swing voters, who are the biggest group, in the whole Mid West without the baggage. And he keeps the younger voters etc happy. Shapiro can then focus on Pennsylvania.
lol yall can be down on Pete all u want. He will be VP pick this year or Presidential candidate/nominee in 2028/2032
Mark Kelly. No one else but mark.
Neil DeGrasse Tyson?
With Cooper out, I'm all in for Mark Kelly. 🚀
Solid choice. I'm leaning towards Shapiro, but I'd be very happy with several of the candidates being discussed.
@@WarMonkeyPlays Walz better then both imho. However all three have merit. The other 2 have strong downsides though.
Andy Beshear is not a conservative democrat lol
as a young man who is a swing voter in the sense that i m either voting democrat or not at all, walz is the guy that gets me on board. last time i voted was obama and primary bernie sanders. hillary clinton and the democratic establishment that is now stanning for shapiro and kelly alienated me. clinton vilified me as as a women hating bernie bro. that was a turning point. shapiro called people that i sympathize with the kkk. therefore i am a kkk member. i am not antisemitic. if the democratic party sees me that way i am not going to vote for it. simple as that.
There is some incomplete information on Shapiro on that front though. As he specifically only called those with pro Hamas signs etc like white supremacists. Not the protesters as a whole and was even welcoming to the protests. Or did I already give you that information? As it seems we are both heavily invested in the VP pick. Walz still no1 though.
JD Vance matters because Trump is 78. We saw what happened to Biden. There's a significant chance Trump would not be able to serve a full term.
Does Cooper pronounce "boot" as "butt"?
The best pick for a fourth round would have been Hunter Biden
Let's get Pete Buttigieg and make history?
Harris for president 2024 🇺🇲💙
Freeeeedooooom!
Why not Adam Kinzinger for VP?
He’s Republican and although he has spoken out against Trump he still is conservative in his policy views would be my guess.
She’s going to pick Joe Biden for VP.
If Harris wants to lose, she should choose Pete or Shapiro. Or, she could actually choose someone who could help her win, like Walz or Beshear. It's not ONLY about being a smooth talker.
Hmmm, Shapiro is a forceful speaker from a must-have state that loves him. He is the man for VP.
@@chrisrecord5625 Do you understand how much young people care about what's happening in Gaza?
@@kelliott7864 How would the election of Trump over Harris help the situation in Gaza?
@@chrisrecord5625how would supporting a genocide help kamala win the election?
@kelliott7864 andthose people will let Trump win??? A Jewish person doesn't necessarily support Netanjahu, Trump does...
Your US phone plan doesn’t work in Canada? You work in media and turn your phone off because you’re in Canada? Full workplace commitment there dude.
When did y'all record?? Cooper is out. Walz has great energy and presence. Shapiro is the One.
She must pick Pete because her speaking skills suck, she needs him.
Stormy Daniel’s
Kelly's the strongest pick
>no views 47 seconds in
Bros and Brals fell off
How is him defending his wife putting a foot in his mouth?
“She black, but at least…” is nowhere a phrase that should be uttered when defending someone. 😜
@@dahbean2874 he didn’t say that. Literally a fake quote.
@@wa-bu3ke There's video. "..but I love her and she's a good mom."
@@krishadyn5211 Yeah the video he says a different thing then that person said. What was wrong with what he said? Nothing. He doesn’t say at least and he doesn’t call her black. He defended his wife. Cope
You don't understand that when you get a question: "Hey you are being attacked by white supremacists because of your wife". Answering: "Yeah she is not white, but I love her" is not defending her at all???? Look up the clip is you don't believe me.
Unity ticket = Kinzinger
Anyone except kelly and shapiro will be good
She will chose Mayo Pete
I’m sorry your candidate is terrible 😂
She isn't even the Democrat nominee you might think you are but that isn't what being talked about. They literally said if she doesn't raise enough votes, they will put someone else up at the Democratic Convention so it would be stupid to have a debate until August 19 and run through August 22. Democrats you made your bed we never wanted HARRIS.
who cares lol heels up harris isnt winning anything
Josh Shapiro is the best choice for Harris’s VP pick’s.💙💙💙💙💙💙💙💙💙💙🇺🇸🇺🇸🇺🇸🇺🇸🇺🇸🇺🇸🇺🇸🇺🇸🇺🇸🇺🇸