Preventing a Financial Crisis: Why China Won't Open Its Economy (w/ Chris Balding)
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- Опубліковано 11 вер 2024
- For Chris Balding's updated interview on China, published on Real Vision on September 6, 2019, visit: www.realvision...
Chris Balding, Associate Professor at Peking University, discusses the intersection of finance and politics, China trade policy, and China's big data challenges. Balding drills down into the deleveraging of Chinese debt, and sheds light on how the Chinese leadership views the risk of a future financial crisis. Filmed on May 29, 2018 in New York.
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Preventing a Financial Crisis: Why China Won't Open Its Economy (w/ Chris Balding)
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For the transcript visit: rvtv.io/2ISs6L6
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US rejected MoneyGram being sold to ANT, US Reason: National Security
China rejected MasterCard/ Visa in China, China Reason: National Security or Market Access Restriction?
Tech restriction is one thing, market access restrictions are quite another.
haha the double standard of Americans couldn't be more clear.
@Donald Kasper
Yes and China is broke no more dollars pouring in cause of the "trade war" nd you need to have the U.S. dollar to trade legitimately anyway so that's what it the "Trade War" was and shall remain all about they CAN NOT open up capital accounts cause they do CCP will collapse completely the secound they do! FACTS😁
@William Scott
I know I sent a huge reply to you but if you read it and want to check some videos out that will teach you some of the dirtiest secrets message me back I will put together some of the best ones I've been helped with that taught me all this and woke me to the truth and drove me to figure that China conclusion of why they are on the world hot plate now then let me know I'll right them down then message the titles to you cause this is a war against them a war of knowledge for if we all knew this they would crumble into nothing overnight cause they would not be able to have anyone to pay to do their bidding anymore cause they would realize they were building them up and protecting them for NOTHING!
@@SarahSmith-hd8kd Hi Sarah, please do share as this is interesting to me.
Very interesting talk by a well informed China insider. My only question is how the CCP can successfully prevent a major financial crisis from occurring as debt continues to pile up across consumer, banking, public (i.e., local governments), and some corporate sectors. Try as they might to control events and keeping it from happening, there comes a point where some major series of catastrophies (e.g., a collapse in consumer faith in the survival of their property equities across the major cities, a series of closely timed large bank failures) will exceed even the party's and central bank's ability to keep the deck of cards from collapsing in on itself.
Debt can reach astronomical levels relative to the size of an economy as long as the debt is held internally and the country's economy can provide most goods and services. Japan has proven that. Money is simply a medium of exchange with no intrinsic value. It's essentially digits on computers. The problem is when external debt gets to be too great relative to the size of a country's economy or inflation happens too quickly and people lose faith in their money.
John Blackburn you can do it when the banking system is state owned and when you have $27 trillion in saving deposits
You can ask the exact same question for US dollar.
China don't depend on stock as much as US. Huawei is not even listed.
藏富于民
He was a professor and living at Shenzhen.
After this interview came out, he will be fired and his visa will be cancelled.
He's at Fulbright in Vietnam now.
Vietnam is now the next platform to promote American influence
Invest in America.
@@lance8080 Exactly. The Globalists and their wonks who gutted out our industrial base are shocked because China has a nationalist economic and industrial policies putting the long-term interest of their people ahead of those of foreign capital...
@@zurinarctus1329 American influence = dollars
Kick them out of the WTO for breaching conditions of entry!
The professor has some very accurate and in-depth view of China economy. He is absolutely right about one thing - Beijing will prevent a financial crisis with all costs. For people out there wishing for a sudden collapse of China, sorry folks, it won’t happen. CCP will spread all the financial risks, debts or suffering to its common people. It’s a simple trick to pull on its people. And the best part is no matter what the government do, people will cheer and appraise it even though they could suffer financially or be starved to death. Chinese population is very obedient and easy to manipulate. It makes the government’s job to prevent any crisis much easier. Plus they have the control of the media, the banks, the police, the military, the schools, the hospitals. You name it they have it. So no, China won’t fall overnight. CCP will survive for a long time. And the people will go with whatever the decision the CCP makes. They will go down together like in a grinder.
Weimin Sun facts!!
King Kemet 25 the facts are buried in the chinese history and chinese culture. If you understand the chinese history, the culture and psychic of the people, you will make the same conclusion. It’s very obvious in the average chinese’ mind.
Weimin Sun lol facts is USA slang it means I agree with you
King Kemet 25 ok. I didn’t realize these are exclamation marks not question marks 😆😆😆
Weimin Sun lol
Saying that it is a "once in a century event, Beijing will do everything they can from allowing it to happen," and "it would change everything we know about China overnight" doesn't actually offer any legitimate reasoning as to why there won't be a financial crisis in China. Actually, there arguably already is a financial crisis in China that has increasingly become worse over the past few years and seems to be accelerating. Wages for skilled workers are higher than what companies are willing to pay, housing prices are absolutely astronomical and still skyrocketing, various food prices are exactly the same as more "expensive," developed countries and in some cases higher, the majority of middle class workers barely make enough to cover their bills, and families have to pool their money just to get a car or down payment to buy a house for their son (or sometimes daughter).
I have no idea when the feces is going to strike the fan in China, but I can tell you this much: there are a lot of crazy, out of control things getting worse and, ironically related to his point, I believe it will be the Party's very own "control" that causes it to come apart.
Australians have to pool resources for young adult children to buy a residential property too.
b/c the s will hit the fan in china, we need to decouple our economy from theirs, pronto.
@@zenden6564 Because China has bid up your property prices.
@@jeffreykalb9752 - very true combined with extremely high immigration levels pumping property demand.
Make America Great Again
80's Nostalgia Guy ...America was great... then a group of people elected a circus clown , TV personality with ZERO experience in public policy, and ZERO experience in international negotiations. We have lost our place in the world, lost our ground intelligence assets and now we have lost a lot of greatness and what’s worse we lost our class to a big baby narcissist.
Cary Clan Love Trump or hate him, just get over it and let us unite to strengthen our country and stand strong against our competitors. The US doesn’t need any more divisiveness, regardless of who else might being doing it (even potentially a President).
Cary Clan USA lost its place when Obama stepped off the back of the plane, be proud this clown has faithful supporters or you’d be sipping from communist cup singing praises to glorious China rule homeless.
Another narrative from a New Zealand perspective.
New Zealand goods exports to China have quadrupled since a free trade agreement was signed and entered into force in 2008. China is now New Zealand’s largest trading partner, with two-way trade valued at over NZ$28 billion in 2018. NZ has a trade surplus of $5.1 billion with China.
Tariffs are now eliminated for over 97% of New Zealand goods exports to China. In 2018, all exports other than dairy (some products remain subject to tariffs and safeguards that will be phased out by 2024), and a small number of products that were excluded from the FTA are eligible for tariff-free access into China.
Better access to high quality Chinese goods for New Zealand businesses and consumers. In 2018, all imports from China are eligible for tariff-free access.
Improved access to Chinese markets for New Zealand service providers, including future-proofing rules that ensure service exporters in some sectors will benefit from any improved access that China grants to other FTA partners.
Faster and easier temporary entry to China for business people through improved visa processing.
Greater cooperation in areas such as sanitary and phytosanitary measures and technical barriers to trade.
A clear process for settling disputes related to the FTA.
Dedicated agreements on environment and labour that provide for more effective discussion and cooperation.
Reduced red tape, including an easier and less costly route for New Zealand exporters of certain electrical and electronic equipment products to comply with Chinese certification requirements.
Q: Where do you find your keys? A: The last place you look.
One thing that is missing in every discussion about Chinese debt is the huge amount of income that China is creating with its Belt and Road program. Granted there is the possibility of a large portion of that projected income being rather shakey but it is well protected by the assets that guarantee the loans. Those guaranteed assets if they become Chinese properties such as ports or railways will more than cover the lost income if repayment fails. Those assets would become perpetual sources of income as well as strategic values.
The parallels between China today and Japan in the late 1980s are striking.
@@uxpjsxu Democracy is anti-capitalist in every aspect. Democracy is a soft variant of Communism and rarely in the history of ideas has it been taken anything else.
@@uxpjsxu I'm gonna ignore the slanty eyes comment but - yeah, their political systems are different but their economic histories are surprisingly similar. Japan also went through an export driven period of very rapid growth. Japan also chose not to slow the growth at its peak and accumulated huge amounts of bad debt invested in zombie companies. Japan was also pointed to as the 'next big thing' in the 1980s, and commentators lamented the West's failure to keep up with Japan and debated when it would surpass the US economy. And when the music stopped in the mid 90s, Japan chose to bail out those zombie companies and avoid painful restructuring, partly because there was an interventionist policy consensus and partly because of their fiercely loyal corporate culture. For twenty years, Japan's paid for that, with negative interest rates, deflation, and sluggish growth. In some ways, it looks like China's going through the exact same thing.
That's what Balding was referring to when he said the CCP would rather be like Tokyo than Thailand.
China’s payment market is on wechat, everyone uses their phone to pay for products and services, they don’t use credit cards. In fact in many large cities don’t accept cash or cards. These cities are more advanced than US cities.
That doesn't mean they are more advanced. At all.
I’d much rather pay with cash or card, can you imagine not being able to buy something important if you’re phone dies lol? Plus phones are more easily hacked
Here is a person really understand China
Who really understands
Do you?
Don’t trade with Communist China, trade balance goes down and technology thief goes away. Factories and jobs stay in America.
Beijing will do everything possible to prevent a financial crash to their currency, but that doesn't mean it won't happen. It is a once in a century or maybe once every 70 years event, but it is still coming because in the last 2 years things seem to be getting more and more desperate for them. There doesn't seem to be any way they can stop it and even if they do hold on for a few more years, the situation will be even worse then.
In 2016, it looked really bad with the capital outflow, but they stabilized in 2017. Then in June 2018 with the start of the trade war, it started going badly again with even more corporate debt being added. Now things are even worse than 2016.
This RMB apocalypse is coming no matter how much they don't want it to happen.
又是个不懂啥是fiat currency的人。 美元40年没有黄金后盾后几乎是想印多少就多少。 我美国到你国买货， 付你美金（纸钞）， 你把你辛苦的成品换给他。 这还看不出来不对劲吗。 不是rmb爆，是美金爆了我们全世界人民怎么办。 美元是世界霸权的地位，问题是美联储需要时候想印就印， 黄金你可印不出来。 bitcoin 这种货币未必不是想解决这个现象。 现在经济是债务维持，大家得一直负债然后让那个未来的自己还， 那天系统崩溃了真不知道怎么办。 历史上还真没有那个纸钞搞的过黄金。
What kind of economy that doesn’t open reciprocal businesses to their partners in trade? You can’t have cake and eat them all and not get noticed
Should Beijing would allow it's financial. Crisis to get out of control, what will happen to its economy?
Can someone please explain to me how the tariffs affect the farmland in California of which China owns 90%?
TamBeauProductions Where’s your proof ???
@@lance8080 my family owns farmland. The information is not difficult to look up for one's self. I came across the information while looking for farming grants under one of the Veteran websites. It is no secret China has been buying up land in the US for years, but they do not allow anyone to own any of theirs.
Been hearing lots of fire sales by the Chinese party of many real estates in the states as if they needed the cash pronto to put out some fires
Thanks for making this.
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FINALLY, you invited someone actually know china.
chris balding was not at peking university anymore . his contract was not renewed, now he's at univesity in vietnam which he usedto say that working in communist country is to take a risk.
Gee who would have thought, Nazis are going to do what Nazis do, be Nazis, well this should go over smoothly in a WW3 scenario ;)
He is right, more Tokyo than Thailand. I see a long grinding "lost decade" with all the debt coupled with a pretty major demographic cliff. China will age faster than Japan by 2030 while USA ( due to immigrants) will continue to healthier demographics next 20 - 30 years. So for China, how will a shrinking population carry all that debt burden, plus given a wiser decoupled USA scenario
Send pics of Janet Yellen plz
Blown away, actual realism.
The original broadcast date??
China is the most protectionist economy in the history of money.l
What planet is this man living on? I am a Chinese from mainland China and all my cards are Mastercard and Visa. I obtained my first Visa card the day I registered at my university in Hubei province.
We wish him luck, particularly safety!
Mind & Qi are One
He will be safe ... don’t worry
Yea in Guantanamo Bay holiday resort
those who control
EURASIA
control the WORLD
-
john halford mackinder
-
What's up with this ?
this is up:
It's ImperativE
that no Eurasian challenger emerges capable of dominating EurasiA and thus of also challenging America
-
Zbignew Brzezinski
Chris all boil down to sinophobia, as simple as that. Using loosely vague law under the pretext of national security to target any countries is absurd. This is self-fear and wont make America great again.
Great interview. Full of detailed knowledge.
Mercedes and BMW sell 25% of their market only in china and this will increase as china's middle class grows larger. You said china is not opening its market or perhaps US companies are not competitive enough?? The Germans are getting in the chinese market, why can't you.
Apple sells more iphones in china than it does in the US. China is not opening its market?? Are u serious??
Genius guy!
Trump should hire this guy...
The end of the story, the conclusion is unclear. Wechatt credit-application and Japan / Thailand does not come together well.
All they need to do is print and who is to care. RMB is only used in China, they print and only devalues their money, the CCP doesn't care they are buying gold and trading in dollars if the RMB devalues then it's just much more cheaper labor and the CCP doesn't feel any pain but their people will.
So what you are saying basically is that we can order Peking duck but cannot eat in..
That's what a country should do.
C. Balding call himself a Prof. his opinion is not, in fact accurate, to be more precise he should have said China is not opening up faster than the West would have liked. The last 6-12mths China has already started to open more areas in which foreign investments can participate and the rules more relaxed, just look at Germany is taking advantage of. From China viewpoint, China needs to be sure what she is doing(opening up) is in fact for the benefits of the people, to opening up is a big statement, if it means wide open without restrictions then all the pure capitalists will just flog in an attempt to extract(to the extent of exploitations of Chinese labor and funneling of wealth out of China) the most out of China, China would NOT like to see that happening. Mr Balding is NOT being truthful, maybe China should fire him from Peking Uni.
Enjoying your fifty cents?
That's why you have black market money in the US and undeclared tax. In china, money inflows and outflows are controlled via wechat. It is a cashless society. You therefore need to pay your taxes as everything is on record. Unfortunately, there is no perfect world. You want privacy, then the US is the place to go
This guy lives and works in China, so imagine the pressure he must be under to tow the China line, and to me clouds the credibility of this video. Why doesn't Real Vision Finance realize this ? I don't know... maybe they get so caught up in detail that they loose sight of the big picture, but they can do better !
very bright and clearly explained.
Let's just return the favor and promise China that we will not go to war with them if they don't open up.
This channel makes me feel smart. I'd be a little nervous providing such real talk while living in China. Come back to LA (China West).
Maybe some countries should worry about their own financial crisis first ,shouldn’t they
He talks nonsense....Just walk around China cities and will see in all corners shops displaying US goods....McDonald, KFC, Starbuck, Nike, etc and etc.
Toon Pang Boon Communist Chinese CCP disinformation troll agent.
no crisis, worldwide collapse! The Heat of the Day Pat Metheny
What happened yesterday with the NY Fed?
WHAT I CANT POST?
They are facing a crisis either way, all countries have cycles, they will be fine.
The difference in case of China is the chinese people. Chinese people Can endure a lot of pains. So the cycle is much longer than western countries and the end result will be very brutal. No it’s not the same
@@sunwm2003 If they are going down like Japan did, they might not end up that bad.
finback2005 no, it won’t. Japan is a very orderly society. China is very chaotic under the cover. The entire country can go a million directions in any event. Westerners who live in China for extensive time know the facts.
How will they print the dollars? What about dollar debt? What about thier dollar swaps? the dollar squeeze will force many banks and institutions to kollaps.
Atm, all they can do to get dollars is to liquidate their foreign and dollar-denominated assets, which at this point are pretty considerable.
it's been 2 days. is he still alive?? I hope so!
He may be taken to Guantanamo Bay holiday resort
Cheep labor period
This guy is part of the problem. Has no idea what he is saying. He is the reason we are in this mess!
Thank you kindly for this analysis. These views parallel mine, however, there is so much China bashing that I lost my compass and sold all my positions, before they took a hit. I will continue to watch future events and look for a reentry point.
Kirstin Strand don’t buy from Communist China , invest in America.
Gee who would have thought, Nazis are going to do what Nazis do, be Nazis, well this should go over smoothly in a WW3 scenario ;)
US prevents hauwei from entering not only US markets but also globally every other country.
Yet china is the one being singled out for not allowing US to enter.
As soon as china has the capacity to compete with US companies, US stopped them entering. Whether steel, solar, 5g or anything else.
Hypocrisy much.
Living in chine make you a expert ?? Okay blaming chine for America’s failure
Salt is national security issue.
Armies can't fight and countries will demise, if they don't have enought salt.
Any American who would favor any other country above that of U.S. intrust are free to leave, Socialist Democrat rationalizing Globalist talking points. China economy is no more a concern to American taxpayers than the mortality of aborted babies are to Democratic Party. China needs America, not the other way around. Rather return to isolationism than be dependant on a competitive foreign nation. Trump 2020
From May, 2018.
I think it's not Peking University, it's Beijing University!!
The official name of the university in English is Peking University. Google is your friend!
wait a min, what's wrong with being like Thailand?
Being under authorgarian regime with fake governments who voilate human rights of the people?
Next to no economic growth.
Oligarchy driven economy.
Whats wrong? Not sure..
FUNNY THAT YOU ALMOST CA,T EVEN USE A CARDS IN CHINA
how much is this guy paid to spew bs?
China has seriously violated the international law-the Hong Kong 1997 Treaty by proposing Hong Kong's extradition bill. Also, practicing dumping in the US market and waging the unfair trade war against the US, China severely violated international laws and trade norms, while China has at the same time unashamedly filed complaints against the US for not complying with the international regulations to WTO! China is indeed the troublemaker. Since when China was in compliance with the international laws? The international tribunal in The Hague in the 2016 landmark case by Philippines against China, found that China's expansive claim to sovereignty over the waters in the Southeast Sea had no legal basis, and China blatantly ignored the ruling by illegally building artificial islands in the Southeast Sea. As a result, China intentionally violated the international law. Also, the United Nations reiterates Vietnam’s full sovereignty over Paracel and Spratly archipelagoes, based on 1982 UNCLOS (un.org) to which China is a signatory. By signing the 1982 UNCLOS, China solidified Vietnam's full sovereignty over Paracel and Spratly archipelagoes-an integral part of the territory of Vietnam, not China. By signing the 1982 UNCLOS, China reaffirmed that its nine dashed line map in 1947, was totally illegal and groundless. But China has been groundlessly claiming the Southeast Sea as its territory while intentionally ignoring the international laws. China has NEVER complied with the international regulations and trade norms, so why did China ask other countries, including the US to be incompliance with international laws?
It’s past time to stop babysitting the foolish Chinese
Then Corona happened..
looks nerd.sorry balding im your Twitter follower
As a kiwi this 5 eyes bs is disgusting
The second most senior counter-espionage official in Canada was arrested on charges of spying for China this week. That doesn't seem like BS.
bejing is going to do everything they can, but there is nothing they can do. Crash, Bam, Boom!
I do think that they will eventually fall. But it won't be pretty.
Old content, s usual with this channel. relevancy?
这真是个中国通
Mc donalds, kentucky, etc operate and make high profits in china
He’s better than Kyle. Sorry Kyle
lol
monmon mon 😂 lol
This is just an outcast, a defector if you will. From the west. They've always existed.
Que?
The chinese viewpoint presented by a selfdescibed Losangelino. Do we have to know more? It's the chinese guy talking in China. What a joke,...but he is a professor.