I work with statisticians. This looks like variation due to imprecise reporting and perhaps a lack of rigor when interpreting results. With so few churches reporting and so much variation in number reporting the best you’ll get is an estimate. A statistician could analyze the data and collection methods and probably give you a confidence interval and other metrics that would make it meaningful. To me, the big Takeaway from this story is that we should all learn more about statistics.
It’s pretty obvious that they estimate unreported churches as having the membership equal to the average value of reporting churches in the region. They sampled a large church and applied the size across the population of unreported churches.
I don't see any reason to trust any religion on reporting it's membership. Everyone knows religious belief is in a serious decline, and about time too.
@@ShankarSivarajan well they only had a sample population of 1 so median and mean would have yielded the same estimated value. What I think they should have done is found YoY shrinkage in the reporting population and applied it to the non-reporting population to get a more accurate membership estimate
Very strange. It seems that if all churches within the denomination are not reporting their membership then the numbers aren't accurate anyway, but this is truly a mystery. I hope to see a follow-up video with the answer in the future.
This is likely common, especially in Baptist Conventions that are all losely organized on a very voluntary basis. Members aren't required to provide data to anyone, as Conventions can't really *require* a church to do anything. If a church doesn't think they need to give their data to anyone, then they just don't. So people have to try to fill the gaps as well as they can with what they have. So, yeah. I wouldn't hold too tightly to numbers coming from Baptist denominations. Of course, lower reporting implies errors in totals are more likely to make them look smaller than reality rather than larger. I would assume so anyway.
That's probably the case. I think the best way to find out is some quick division to see the average number of members per congregation. It seems to only be going up and in 2018, when the spike occurred, the ABC USA still reported a net loss of churches within the association which to me, indicates exactly what you said: a lot of small churches are leaving the association, while a few megachurches are joining
@@splaar The American Baptist Church is a liberal - AKA, mainline, denomination. I can't think of anything that would attract (previously independent) megachurches to join them - the ABC's liberal theology would be problematic for most megachurches.
Spent a while researching today and couldn't find any such megachurches. They'd need to be in Kansas, Arkansas, or Oklahoma, as those are the states in the Central Region. The increase is also too big for a single megachurch unless it's one of the biggest in America. For my theory to work, there'd need to be at least 9 megachurches that are just barely too small for Wikipedia's list, and the partial stats I found for 2018 don't show that kind of turnover. Admittedly, Wikipedia is going off weekly attendance instead of membership, but it's still a reach. Michael's point about theology is good too. I'm pretty sure my theory is wrong.
Sounds like my town. As of the 2020 census, we had lost about 500 people, with a projected drop of 1% per year. Three years later, the signs haven't changed.
I was part of the American Baptist Church (ABCUSA) denomination several years ago. The church I was part of was in Southern California, which was a much more conservative region for that denomination. The denomination tends to be liberal, but by far and large, the Southern California and Arizona churches were biblically conservative. In the mid 2000's we all voted whether to remain in the ABCUSA or start our own more conservative affiliation of churches, and most of us voted the latter. The conservative former American Baptist Churches in Southern California and Arizona formed a new group called Transformation Ministries. It was interesting to be part of that whole process.
Enjoyed that video. Thank you for keeping track of things that we don't have the ability to do or the time and I hope they will report to you for an update. I'm looking forward to hearing. Keep up the good work to keep us all in the loop on the overall Christian picture in our day.
I looked at those reports, and the problem actually started in 2017 with "resident members." Whatever that means (active members?), it jumped in 2017 to double the actual membership (an impossible 60K out of 30K), and then in 2018 the actual membership jumped to match it (60K out of 110K makes more sense). So the first clue might be in 2017.
I noticed the strange "resident members" too (though I didn't notice the 2017 jump, only the 2018 one) and I assume that something weird is going on there also. I couldn't find a definition of what that even is, but I think youa re right that it plays a part.
@@ReadyToHarvest For some years to now, most of those so called "mainline" Protestant Churches have started what they call "open communion", on what it means that whomever else is present at a particular service, no matter their actual Church affiliation are highly encouraged to take full participation on that service at the point of taking communion if they so desire. That ultimately may be leading a certain degree of "informal membership" that may spreading around those Churches, because; yeah; why would I to become a formal member if I have the same benefits of a true member at a "low cost" setting? That poses obviously the question of "where should we to count those informal members?" from those Churches leaders! Either way: If the mainline Churches are now surviving over very difficult to accurately count regular informal members at a point of them being a large portion (to not say a majority in some of them) of their Church goers, then it would be at least safe to say that the mainstream Churches are now not as dead as some may think about, and that this problem will only to enlarge as times goes. Those "resident members" might very well to be those informal members for that particular denomination.
I grew up in this denomination in the 90s and was even part of a state-wide youth leadership training program where the denomination was attempting to train the next generation of pastors and leaders. Out of the 30 different kids that were in this program with me over the two years I participated, only a handful still keep the faith while only two of us, myself and another, ever got ordained (I wasn’t even ordained in this denomination). So out of 30ish supposed future leaders that were being trained at the state level in this denomination, only one actually became a legitimate leader within the denomination. It was as if overnight in the early 2000s that the entire youth for this denomination in my state lost faith and left this denomination completely. Now the ABC in my state is all but dead.
A very thorough report, thanks for sharing. I wouldn't be shocked to see some modest growth in a few areas of the country while sharp declines are still happening in metropolitan regions. I think some of this growth, if true, may be happening out of desperation as society sees how far we've drifted into secularism. Our family values are in crisis, our schools are failing, and our government has no answers. People seem to be getting frustrated and longing for a change. Some of them may be reconnecting with the church they grew up in when they were kids as now they realize that they're not happy with their current lifestyle.
If I was involved in any denomination, I'd try to keep the movement or ministry away from political conflict. Ralph Reed of the Faith & Freedom Coalition made people more theocratic, and more obsessed with orientation change efforts. If that wasn't playing with enough fire, a movement named the Prosperity Gospel, also known most derisively as Blab It And Grab It, turned out over several decades to have transferred billions of Dollars into ministry hierarchs' hands, and even many other big-name ministers considered it a blasphemy. That new direction United Statish churches were going in couldn't last forever, and those changes have bled church attendance more than anything in recent decades.
Well, the independent Baptist Churches seem to be doing well from my perspective in central tidewater Virginia. In our rather small population county there are three independent thriving Baptist churches. I don't remember even seeing an "affiliated" Baptist Church.
That seems a good possibility. If so, instead of 100 churches reporting an average of 150 members, it's just one larger church reporting nearly 600 members. Since the increase was maintained, does that mean only that one church continued to report? Joshua didn't mention it, but went and checked for myself, and yes, since then no more than one in that region has reported. 0 reported in 2019, and 1 in 2020. The 0 reporting does kind of mess up the formula you had, so it could be something else, but perhaps they just do something else in that case?
@WooperSlim Yeah, I looked at the page for 2020. There are too many lines with 0 churches reporting, but memberships are listed. Also, there are so many churches with no expenses. Basically, the data makes no sense.
@@WooperSlim Very likely that simple indeed, but also there's no reason to guess if that's it because it's easily checked. Do the actual numbers bear this out? All the data is right there to check. No need to guess.
@@kirin347 Not "makes no sense" but rather "wildly incomplete." However this is likely all done by volunteers so - ya know, ya get what ya get. That's not a criticism, that's just a reality.
I'm not sure we're capable of that. As humans we are preoccupied with statistics, documents and regulations. The Bible is full of info on things like taxes, tax collecting, census taking, government regulations and the like.
Based on my church experience I think it is very likely that they had very old numbers for some area, not updated from decades. And then they reported the new numbers suddenly, and of course churches where going up some 25 years ago, the number was bigger then they had in the books. It is very common church to not update their denominational numbers until there is new data. If there is no data taken for some state or area, then it can stay the same number for 20 years...
My father was an ABC pastor for 40 years. I think it would be fair to,say the denomination has struggled over the years for becoming too liberal. The ABC church I attended in college was young and vibrant. Full house every Sunday. Today, they have to take out pews to make room for more wheelchairs and walkers. The massive, mostly empty building is for sale, and they are looking for a smaller location. That church was in the Midwest. In the Pacific Northwest, my sisters used to attend an ABC church. During the pandemic, it closed for a long time. Very few members returned, as they found churches that were not afraid. I recently saw a John Crist video. He attends church wherever he has a show. It was the ABC church in downtown Portland. Beautiful old building. All but empty on Sunday morning. So very sad. My father would not recognize it today.
Apparently they weren't 'afraid' of infecting their fellow 'christians' with a potentially deadly disease, which is code for 'they didn't care if they infected others'. Doesn't sound very Christ-like to me.
Church membership in America is declining because they're aligning themselves with the far-right. If anything churches should have no political leaning and accept anyone through their doors.
My guess, total members = (number of members reported/number of churches reporting) * total churches. So that if only one above average church reported that would skew the numbers greatly.
Hello there, I think it is interesting that the reporting region sheet did not include the American Baptist Churches of the South which runs through the Eastern Southern States beginning with Maryland and then from Florida west to Texas.
Assuming for argument's sake that the numbers are right, it could be several unpopular churches left or stopped reporting while one very popular church from outside joined. Unlikely, but possible. The names of the reporting churches from each year would provide useful data.
I send those web page response requests ALL THE TIME! From insurance, to supermarkets, to real estate, to sundry items, to produce... hundreds of them. No responses, EVER!
It seems like maybe there’s some algorithm to estimate membership based on the reporting churches and the fact only 1 church reported made the estimate really wonky.
You mean a completely made up doctrine that was nowhere in our founding documents? While we will always be a secular government, God is mentioned so often because we are simply a Christian Nation. You see, freedom of religion is not the same thing as freedom from religion. Freedom of religion is a constitutionally-protected right. Freedom from religion is not.
@@richardbullwood5941 Thank you for your response. The information you share is powerful and insightful at the same time. For years I've heard how religion is protected by the founding document. How churches are autonomous. At what point does a secular government under the founding document intercede? What is the watermark that justifies interaction? For me these are questions that I don't find with trusted sites that clarify. Thank you again for your excellent knowledge on these matters and the presentations.
I wonder if you could narrow down the regions that had the spikes or if it was an overall shift. If the percentage is across the board then we can safely assume it's an administrative adjustment. If it's real then we could find where the spikes happened
In the video, he says it is ABCCR. It has to be some data error. Either they changed a program or someone just messed up data entry. I am familiar with the region and the people running it.
@@fredbecker607 I know nothing of the region, the people, or ABC. But I know something about data... 40 years of something... and I agree. It's pretty obviously a data problem, some way or another. Probably a messup, followed by an attempt to fix the messup. It's not exactly praiseworthy - but neither is it likely to be malicious or otherwise "evil." And the attempt to fix it? That is praiseworthy. That is certainly better than burying it. The worst you could probably accuse them of, is sloppy reporting. And that happens.
Have you tried contacting "American Baptist Church of the Central Region" directly? They have a couple people listed on their webpage you could contact directly.
What other factors contributed to the increase of reported members being increased between 2017 and 2019? Also, the question WHY, is secondary, but may shed light on it as well.
As a data source, it should be considered suspect if there is no methodology reported. Is there a definition of a "member" and do all regions use that same definition? From year to year? Do United Mission numbers reflect the actual trend? As I understand the report, this amount is not self reported but comes from the amount received by the ABC.
I WENT TO A BAPTIST CHURCH CLOSE TO ME. I REAL NEEDED SOMEONE TO TALK TO. MY HEAD WAS IN A BAD PLACE. THE PASTOR SAID I DON'T TIME FOR YOU AND WALKED AWAY. I WAS BORN AND RAISED IN THE BAPTIST CHURCH. I HATE TO SAY THIS BUT IT SEEMS THEY HAVE LOST THEIR WAY. THAT WAS THE FIRST IN ALONG TIME. I WANTED TO SPEAK TO A PASTOR. THAT WAS THE FIRST TIME IN SINCE MY FATHER DIED. PEOPLE IN THE CHURCH I KNEW MY WHOLE LIFE TURN THERE BACK ON ME. BECAUSE OF LIES MY MOTHER TOLD THEM. THE PASTOR TOLD TO WALK AWAY FROM A UNBORN CHILD. I RAISED MY SON BY MYSELF. HIS WALKED AWAY FROM THE BOTH OF USE.
@@bobbytutton3270 I HAVE SEEN SO MUCH IN THE BAPTIST CHURCH OVER THE YEARS. One of the first things I seen when I was a child. Where the pastor was having an affair with a Deacon's wife. Another one was where the pastor told all the ladies of the church had nothing to say in a church and keep their mouth shut. I've seen a lot of evil in the church
Churches that are that large probably don't have a handle on exactly how many members they have. My guess is people guessed at some point and that reflects either the large growth or large loses. I always figured that any denomination that knows exactly how many members they have probably doesn't many members.
The answer's probably in existing churches that joined the ABC and dual aligned churches. It may be worth checking into the DC Baptist Convention. They had been aligned with the ABC and the SBC, but I think the SBC ended that.
@@jameswoodard4304 the difference between one year's number of churches and the next is not just churches that left or closed. That number is probably greater. They're still adding new churches.
I go to a Baptist church but for me it doesn’t matter as long as the church preaches the Bible and is all about repentance and following Jesus Christ and his commandments, and not being woke and following the ways of the world
I really don't know enough about the ABC to say this specifically applies, but there's a reason so many denominations are dying off: they abandoned age-old biblical truths for the sake of inclusivity and fitting in with the secular worldview. If you tell people that what belief one embraces - or doesn't embrace - doesn't matter, and that God fully accepts them no matter what their behavior, those receiving that message will internalize it. They'll say, "I'm perfect just as I am; why would I need to join any church?"
Yep. When you reject Biblical Truths in favor of what modern society thinks is "correct" or "important", that is a recipe for failure. People now WANT to hear the Truth! And the churches that are preaching it are the ones who experience true growth.
I remember back in the 80s tree huggers wanted to stop logging so they grabbed a mascot, the spotted owl. They said their were only 5000 birds and the numbers were declining fast. The logging industry counted and they said, we've tagged 12000 of the birds. This debate went on for several years until the government forced a third party count and it was revealed there were over 20,000 owls. There was no decline or disappearance of species. So why the discrepancy? Money! In a churches case, the collection plate is passed and tithes collected. But if the money brought into the coffers doesn't match the attendance then people in suits with big pencils gets nervous. If a pastor is inflating numbers? Follow the money!
The place where the typo is seems fairly obvious. The 2018 Central Region report only shows one church reporting (where over 100 churches had reported in previous years), yet there's a huge increase in membership. There's obviously something wrong with the numbers there.
This video is a testimony to churches being Corporation's, these Corporation's will go through the time of Jacob's trouble, the Great Tribulation. The members of these Corporation's who are in the body of Christ Church the Apostle Paul tells "but you brethren are not appointed to wrath " . Make sure, first and foremost you are in Christ, the body of Christ Church. Your Justification then Christ in you your Santification.
This really could be a typo. Because they seem to be assuming that numbers are unchanged unless reported otherwise, it’s possible that one church accidentally pretended a number to their report and hasn’t submitted one since, causing the error to linger.
Some random thoughts: 1. Are they measuring members, or average attendance? 2. Does the church remove people who seldom or never attend from the lists? Many churches seldom revise their membership lists, it would be too depressing. They probably have dead people on them. 3. Many people today grew up in the anti-organization 1970's, so may attend occasionally but don't want to formally "join" a church - or any other organization for that matter. Secular organizations are having the same problems. Yet Jesus himself and His disciples set the church up as an organization with a chain of command. Without organization little gets done and even less lasts. 4. Churches that have abandoned the Bible as their basis have left themselves with little to offer - secular organizations can "do good" without requiring anything of anyone. 5. Is "a charismatic man/woman" bringing in crowds for a year or two and then moving on, or falling into sin and driving people away? That could account for short term blips.
I served as music director for an ABC church in Michigan about 20 years ago. It had once been a thriving congregation, the oldest church in that city, with a sanctuary seating over 500 and a 4-storey Sunday school wing. But it was dwindling by the time I arrived. At the time I left, average attendance was down to c. 90 per Sunday. A year later, I was told that it was down to half that. Now the church survives only by sharing the building with a group of other non-profit organizations.
A study of religious history shows that believers from one chunk of time, say the 1300s, hold many drastically different beliefs than their predecessors a few hundred years previously and the same for generations after them. The beliefs aren't consistent through time. It's crap. It isn't real. It doesn't reflect reality. And millions each year globally are coming to this conclusion.
Where did everybody go? Which churches did you hear they joined? How much was people dying off? How many people continued to profess Christianity but did not attend church anywhere? Was there no church discipline or membership?
I’m pretty sure it’s the other way around. People are leaving megachurches in droves, and small little rural churches are bursting at the seems with life and youth.
@@mcgheebentle1958 If what you believe is true, it does not make what @ladnit.......dad said any less true. Without transfer of membership forms being filled out, a person could belong to as many churches as they choose to join, inflating the memberships of all those churches, even thought that person isn't likely attending all of them.
@@normanacree1635 I don’t disagree, I’m just saying that I don’t think that the small church to megachurch is the movement right now. I think it’s megachurch to small church. Which still corroborates the double-counting theory, which I think is a solid explanation.
I was just having a conversation about this type of trend earlier this week. Seems to me that the more liberal communities are losing members to the more conservative and traditional ones. I'm Catholic and you won't see more young couples with big families anywhere than the Traditional Latin or Ordinariate parishes. Similar for the protestant communities I'm connected with through friends, it seems like all of the mega communities that stream their services or are liberal are shrinking while the conservative and more traditional ones are growing. People who want the liberal stuff aren't going to church as much and the people who don't are going to places they feel are more in line with Scripture and traditional beliefs. This combined with online attendance causing communities to shrink and giving to decrease is all culminating is a growth of traditional and conservative communities and the death of the more liberal and mega ones. That's my take on the limited data and anecdotal evidence I've seen.
true. seems like a lot of young, liberal people just leave the Church and do there own thing, while conservative people become more hardliner. I know a lot of people who become pagan or non-religious because there's less rules attached compared to the Church and they find it more freeing.
We just ended 4 years of seeing the true nature of many 'christians' who embraced a leader who is the antithesis of what it means to be Christian. This 'selling of their souls' for short term gains (federal judges, supreme court decisions, etc.) turned many Christians off and they simply left, realizing their church had sold out to this scam artist. The ones remaining were left to join those other conservative churches who are still more than happy to embrace the extreme right wingers in their attempts to 'return' this country back into what they describe as a 'Christian nation'. Problem is: who gets to decide the meaning of 'Christian'?
Hmm....could the pandemic have something to do with those numbers? A lot of churches went to online only, and stepped up their streaming game. If not actual membership, maybe they were counting people tuning in to watch as potential members?
Ask a Baptist what baptism is for. You'd think they'd know (seeing as how it's in the name and all) but I haven't met a single Baptist who confesses (i.e. says the same thing) about baptism that the New Testament teaches. No, not one.
IIRC they're the Northern side of the Baptist split that occurred during the US Civil War. Is that correct? FWIW, they've got some very beautiful churches on some very pricy real estate here in Connecticut. And while they might be theologically liberal, I don't think I've seen their buildings festooned with rainbow and trans rights flags, as is otherwise a VERY common decoration on Protestant churches around here. (Methodist, Congregationalist, etc. )
Actually the ABC did not become a denomination until 1907. The SBC formed out of the Tri-annual committee because they would not allow slave owners to be missionaries. Then in 1932 the GARBC broke off the ABC due to liberalism, and in 1945 - the CBA left the ABC over doctrine.
The "1 church reporting" is obviously an anomaly, which calls into question the rest of the numbers. I don't think this was malicious, someone just messed up the spreadsheet. Why only 1 church reporting with huge jump in total members? It's just a mistake.
a baptist church had a squirrel inhabiting the sanctuary. the new preacher vowed to take care of it. so he saved and baptised it and it never returned.
When referring to churches or denominations, what is your working definition of "mainline"? It seems possible that you are using a different definition than some other writers and publishers are using.
I categorize a denomination as mainline if it is generally considered so by pollsters and religion reporters. I give a lot more details in this video: ua-cam.com/video/k4R1UVQamsY/v-deo.html
@@ReadyToHarvestAs I was re-watching the video you suggested, it occured to me that one of the things that may be skewing the numbers of different categories of denominations is the whole concept of membership. An example of this is a baptist congregation near where we lived some years ago. When I learned that a small orchestra was accompanying the singing of that congregation, I "got myself invited" to attend the orchestra rehearsals. After a few weeks, that led to be being invited to play with the orchestra on Sundays. Neither my wife nor I ever considered ourselves "baptists" but I figured I needed the practice so I played during services about twice a month for a couple of years. One day someone gave us a "church directory". Imagine our surprise to discover that our names and contact information was listed. But here's the wrinkle. I'm almost certain that most baptists agree that "the church" consists of believers, i.e. the church may be organized but no organization of the church IS the church. But, at the bottom of the page where was this explanation for why some names were identified with an asterisk as "church members" - which almost certainly was a reference to people who met specific behavior or doctrinal criteria and were, therefore, eligible to vote, hold elected offices, etc. Do you think there are denominations that continue to keep people's names "on the books" even after they have indicated a desire to disaffiliate?
I think that his definition is the generally accepted one. Really a "mainline Protestant denomination" is one that an editor of the New York Times could attend without being ridiculed for it around the coffee machine.
@@rogermetzger7335 I'm Methodist & have been all my life. In our denomination, you are considered a "member" only if you choose to officially become a member - you tell the pastor that you wish to join the church as a member. There is a short ceremonial event during a church service when there are new members joining. I've belonged to about 6 different churches in different places I've lived, & when they are putting out a new directory, they announce it in advance in the bulletin and church newsletter. Anyone can agree to be included - both official members and those who attend but for whatever reason have not become official members. It seems pretty weird to me that any church would include someone in their church directory without asking permission.
Your right because they now sing in their songs concerning Jehovah as their jireh meaning provider when it is the Almighty God our Father JESUS the very CHRIST!!!! They said if we are teaching you anything but the truth you must tell us so I did and for the truth they literally kicked me out from being amongst themselves to this very day and that was 8years ago. REPENT YOU BAPTISTS !!!!! For the Lord will not count you as his own if you don't repent . EXODUS 6:3 JOHN 8: 56 ,57 AND REVELATION 21: 22
Amen! People do not realize this (because they fail to show diligence in order to be approved by Jesus Christ), but the names “Jehovah” and “Yahweh” are derived from the Tetragrammaton (YHWH or YHVH). The Tetragrammaton is NOT Biblical. It comes from the Kabbalah. I discovered this by reading a large portion of A.E. Waite’s book, “The Holy Kabbalah.” It dedicates a huge emphasis on the ESOTERIC knowledge (and the Tetragrammaton is, indeed, esoteric) instead of the EXOTERIC knowledge found in trusting and calling upon the Name of Jesus Christ. I praise Jesus Christ for releasing me from the bonds of a Ruckmanite Baptist Church around June 2023! 🙏🏻 I will NEVER backslide from this position, and these cult members are “praying” for my swift return. I ask Jesus Christ every day to bounce those prayers right off of me! They will not work! I will never “play the harlot” again!
@@vixenrevitup Let us keep Looking up always for the return of the Lord our God who will take us up and out of arms way before he comes to Judge the World for it's offences. Love you 💕 God bless you in Christ I pray my sister. 👍✝️🥲✌️
@@william1863 Absolutely! The return of the Lord will be so much swifter if we in America follow 2 Chronicles 7:14: “and My people who are called by My name humble themselves and pray and seek My face and turn from their wicked ways, then I will hear from heaven, will forgive their sin and will heal their land.” National repentance will please the Lord our God! We, as a nation, are to seek His Kingdom here on Earth, follow His Commandments, and turn away from fleshly desires. The more people realize this truth, the sooner He will return! I send my prayers and my love to you also, brother! 🙏🏻💖
most baptist churches do not count individuals as members until they are born again and then baptized. Personally, I would not ever consider baptizing someone under the age of 8.
Have you considered the possibility the membership has fallen due to pastors failing to teach God's word? I attended Baptist church years ago, quit going because I wasn't getting the meat of God's word, rather what I heard was talk about a rapture which is a falsehood. If a church is based on falsehoods God will not bless them.
I was raised in a southern baptist church. In my late 20s, I was invited to an Assembly of God church. During "worship," you could feel the presence of God in that place. There is a difference between hearing and experiencing. Many churches in my area are going nondenominational,even the AoG.
Look, the biggest problem with any of these religions is man himself. These preachers that head congregations usually only give sermons on what they think is important. Also, many of these religious leaders like to push fear and even hate of others! For example, the love and respect for others that Jesus taught is seldom part of many sermons.
I am not surprised at all if it was accurate. In my city, churches have been shifting members for many reasons 1. A Pastor retires and half the congregation leaves. 2. A Church shuts its doors and combines with another church. 3. A Pastor has a scandal causing a big exodus. They might all end up at the Baptist church because it is close in style, their friends went there, they followed a Pastor there, the youth went there and parents wanted their kids to continue with same friend group.
Church membership rolls are among the most inaccurate records anywhere. People frequently move, but telling their church, with whom the relationship may have been estranged for a long time, is the last thing these on-paper members are going to do. It’s a shot in the dark, like trying to guess the number of jelly beans in a jar.
My denomination records members in a church wide database, therefore not depending on congregational reporting. And then it doesn’t matter where a member lives or goes to church.
@@keithwilson6060 Methodist here. In our denomination a member is a person who specifically decides to join the church as an official member & goes through a ceremony for it & is then recorded as such. Some people attend for years and choose not to ever become a member. If you move away & join another Methodist church, the pastor at the new church officially transfers your membership from the church you were last a member at. If you don't officially join/become a member at a new church, you are still on the membership roll at the prior church.
@@playhooky You might be surprised to learn that a lot of evangelical denominations have a similar record keeping system. But that doesn’t speak to its accuracy.
Here's a question: How do the institutional reports by various religions, align with self-reporting by various polling organizations and by the Census and other such functions? I wouldn't expect exact matches - they happen on different time schedules, and pollsters and census-takers only sample and may use different categories. But still, I'd like to think that they line up "pretty good" - - - I would be fascinated if you could do a video about this, comparing institutional self-reports with outside counting methods?
@@jamesparson I'm curious about how different, and if they differ regionally. Some might count "high" and some "low" and some might be inconsistent between regions. That would tell us the difference between self-identification and institutional claims. And that would be fascinating. Why wouldn't I want to know? Unsurprisingly I'm most interested in knowing about "my" group. But I'd be fascinated to learn about all of them. I assume you understand that self-published statistics that aren't corroborated or audited, aren't really anything. It's not even dishonesty, it's mostly simple sloppiness or laziness. In the US, religious statistics come in two basic varieties: Input to intra-denominational funding distribution, and general public bragging rights. In most of Europe, it's all about government funding distribution (In most of the world outside the US, the government picks up most of the costs of most religions. Here they only pick up the amount they exempt from taxes, so we get to pretend that the government doesn't pay for religion, but it surely does anyhow, or at least a hefty percentage of whatever is collected.) Sorry, but these are the plain cold facts. Tax breaks are as good as payments - just ask any tax accountant. I'd bet money that the ones who get more from the central institution based on headcount, make sure to count every head. And those who don't, don't spend anything like the same effort counting heads. In fact I do bet money on this, I just call it contributing to my own congregation. I'm just curious to know if I'm guessing right or not. And in that very same sense, I bet that you make the same bet on yours. I just don't know if you realized it or not. Whatever it is that you pray to, doesn't actually need your institution to keep stats - that's not religious in nature, it's just administrative and managerial. Apologies if you thought otherwise. Mind you, without the administration and management, nobody would fix the roof when it leaks. Allowing the roof to keep leaking would not be very pious at all, I don't care who or Who or what you think sent the rain in the first place. I take back the apology. Sorry not sorry. My religion, and I assume yours, values honesty.
Speaking in my personal capacity as an ABCUSA pastor, I have experience with our reporting forms. As a trained program evaluator, the method for collecting data isn't quite as precise as one might like. They are sent individually by the regions to the churches, who in turn fill them out and return them to the region. They are usually signed by a pastor and a church officer. Some church records are loosely kept. Some pastors ignore the paper in their inboxes. Membership can be defined differently from place to place. That we cannot get clean, fully accurate counts of membership is an artifact of the congregational polity and voluntary association principles. There are also many points along the route to the national office in which an input error can occur. We're not highly centralized like connectional polity churches.
I wonder how much these numbers might be affected by liberal interest groups affiliating with American Baptist Churches. I left the ABC after 34 years. I could not reconcile not only what was being preached, but the very low view of Scripture that I experienced in the preaching, with my convictions. In my opinion, there is nothing unifying American Baptists except their desire to support ungodly, unbiblical causes. Back to my point, I wonder how many non-Christian, liberal individuals unite around liberal causes, and use the covering of a "Christian" denomination to accomplish their political goals.
I work with statisticians. This looks like variation due to imprecise reporting and perhaps a lack of rigor when interpreting results. With so few churches reporting and so much variation in number reporting the best you’ll get is an estimate. A statistician could analyze the data and collection methods and probably give you a confidence interval and other metrics that would make it meaningful. To me, the big Takeaway from this story is that we should all learn more about statistics.
Imagine if all that happened was an intern hit a 2 on the keyboard instead of a 1
I feel like that is what must have happened.
I guarantee that is the case.
1:10 he covered that
Not 3 years in a row. No mistake.
⌛⚖️🔥
Membership doesn't always mean attendence, but a single church reporting 86k members more than the entire r gion HAS to be a typo!
Or...a lie!
It’s pretty obvious that they estimate unreported churches as having the membership equal to the average value of reporting churches in the region. They sampled a large church and applied the size across the population of unreported churches.
That was my guess!
I don't see any reason to trust any religion on reporting it's membership.
Everyone knows religious belief is in a serious decline, and about time too.
or they lost 7 churches and gained a megachurch, though that is less likely
If this is the problem, as seems reasonable, this is an excellent example of why they ought to be using the median instead of the mean.
@@ShankarSivarajan well they only had a sample population of 1 so median and mean would have yielded the same estimated value. What I think they should have done is found YoY shrinkage in the reporting population and applied it to the non-reporting population to get a more accurate membership estimate
Very strange. It seems that if all churches within the denomination are not reporting their membership then the numbers aren't accurate anyway, but this is truly a mystery. I hope to see a follow-up video with the answer in the future.
This is likely common, especially in Baptist Conventions that are all losely organized on a very voluntary basis. Members aren't required to provide data to anyone, as Conventions can't really *require* a church to do anything. If a church doesn't think they need to give their data to anyone, then they just don't. So people have to try to fill the gaps as well as they can with what they have.
So, yeah. I wouldn't hold too tightly to numbers coming from Baptist denominations. Of course, lower reporting implies errors in totals are more likely to make them look smaller than reality rather than larger. I would assume so anyway.
Wondering if a few megachurches joined ABC USA. The total number of churches could still go down if a bunch of smaller congregations leave.
The uptick is surely large enough to be called a gigachurch.
That's probably the case. I think the best way to find out is some quick division to see the average number of members per congregation. It seems to only be going up and in 2018, when the spike occurred, the ABC USA still reported a net loss of churches within the association which to me, indicates exactly what you said: a lot of small churches are leaving the association, while a few megachurches are joining
@@splaar The American Baptist Church is a liberal - AKA, mainline, denomination. I can't think of anything that would attract (previously independent) megachurches to join them - the ABC's liberal theology would be problematic for most megachurches.
Spent a while researching today and couldn't find any such megachurches. They'd need to be in Kansas, Arkansas, or Oklahoma, as those are the states in the Central Region. The increase is also too big for a single megachurch unless it's one of the biggest in America. For my theory to work, there'd need to be at least 9 megachurches that are just barely too small for Wikipedia's list, and the partial stats I found for 2018 don't show that kind of turnover. Admittedly, Wikipedia is going off weekly attendance instead of membership, but it's still a reach. Michael's point about theology is good too. I'm pretty sure my theory is wrong.
Sounds like my town. As of the 2020 census, we had lost about 500 people, with a projected drop of 1% per year. Three years later, the signs haven't changed.
I was part of the American Baptist Church (ABCUSA) denomination several years ago. The church I was part of was in Southern California, which was a much more conservative region for that denomination. The denomination tends to be liberal, but by far and large, the Southern California and Arizona churches were biblically conservative. In the mid 2000's we all voted whether to remain in the ABCUSA or start our own more conservative affiliation of churches, and most of us voted the latter. The conservative former American Baptist Churches in Southern California and Arizona formed a new group called Transformation Ministries. It was interesting to be part of that whole process.
Why didn't your church join the SBC?
Enjoyed that video. Thank you for keeping track of things that we don't have the ability to do or the time and I hope they will report to you for an update. I'm looking forward to hearing.
Keep up the good work to keep us all in the loop on the overall Christian picture in our day.
I looked at those reports, and the problem actually started in 2017 with "resident members." Whatever that means (active members?), it jumped in 2017 to double the actual membership (an impossible 60K out of 30K), and then in 2018 the actual membership jumped to match it (60K out of 110K makes more sense). So the first clue might be in 2017.
I noticed the strange "resident members" too (though I didn't notice the 2017 jump, only the 2018 one) and I assume that something weird is going on there also. I couldn't find a definition of what that even is, but I think youa re right that it plays a part.
@@ReadyToHarvest For some years to now, most of those so called "mainline" Protestant Churches have started what they call "open communion", on what it means that whomever else is present at a particular service, no matter their actual Church affiliation are highly encouraged to take full participation on that service at the point of taking communion if they so desire. That ultimately may be leading a certain degree of "informal membership" that may spreading around those Churches, because; yeah; why would I to become a formal member if I have the same benefits of a true member at a "low cost" setting? That poses obviously the question of "where should we to count those informal members?" from those Churches leaders! Either way: If the mainline Churches are now surviving over very difficult to accurately count regular informal members at a point of them being a large portion (to not say a majority in some of them) of their Church goers, then it would be at least safe to say that the mainstream Churches are now not as dead as some may think about, and that this problem will only to enlarge as times goes. Those "resident members" might very well to be those informal members for that particular denomination.
Strange how simple statistics, delivered in a matter of fact way, on a remote subject, is soothing.
UA-cam suggested this video to me - excellent reporting. I have now subscribed to your channel and am looking forward to watching the others.
Your delivery today reminds me of that wonderful candor of local news.
I truly enjoy your channel. Thank you 🙏
"There are three kinds of lies: lies, damned lies, and statistics." - Benjamin Disraeli
Great reporting Joshua, there's definitely something funky in there.
Thank you for sharing this information. I love your channel. Thank you again for making such greatly done and well thought out videos.
Great work. Thanks much.
Very good and very informative 👍
Fantastic reporting here!
I grew up in this denomination in the 90s and was even part of a state-wide youth leadership training program where the denomination was attempting to train the next generation of pastors and leaders. Out of the 30 different kids that were in this program with me over the two years I participated, only a handful still keep the faith while only two of us, myself and another, ever got ordained (I wasn’t even ordained in this denomination). So out of 30ish supposed future leaders that were being trained at the state level in this denomination, only one actually became a legitimate leader within the denomination. It was as if overnight in the early 2000s that the entire youth for this denomination in my state lost faith and left this denomination completely. Now the ABC in my state is all but dead.
Why do you think this happened? What state? Were they mostly liberals or conservatives?
My local church is a member of ABC of greater Indianapolis. We're growing, after losing older members & losses during the pandemic of 2020.
Got sent over here from Ruslan. Keep up your good work! ☝️🙌
A very thorough report, thanks for sharing. I wouldn't be shocked to see some modest growth in a few areas of the country while sharp declines are still happening in metropolitan regions. I think some of this growth, if true, may be happening out of desperation as society sees how far we've drifted into secularism. Our family values are in crisis, our schools are failing, and our government has no answers. People seem to be getting frustrated and longing for a change. Some of them may be reconnecting with the church they grew up in when they were kids as now they realize that they're not happy with their current lifestyle.
If I was involved in any denomination, I'd try to keep the movement or ministry away from political conflict. Ralph Reed of the Faith & Freedom Coalition made people more theocratic, and more obsessed with orientation change efforts. If that wasn't playing with enough fire, a movement named the Prosperity Gospel, also known most derisively as Blab It And Grab It, turned out over several decades to have transferred billions of Dollars into ministry hierarchs' hands, and even many other big-name ministers considered it a blasphemy. That new direction United Statish churches were going in couldn't last forever, and those changes have bled church attendance more than anything in recent decades.
Good insight. Something to think about for certain.
Perhaps the decline in metropolitan churches is because they're possibly more likely to be less Biblical? And/or people moving away from cities?
I have a suggestion. Could you make a video about Indonesian Churches in US? or any other Asian based churches in the US.
Good job keeping us informed
thank you as usual.
I'm not particularly denominational but I really enjoy your content and information. I find it infinitely interesting
VERY interesting indeed! I hope no malfeasance is to blame for this "anomaly."
Are churches capable of malfeasance?
It wasn't. Just common sense says something is wrong. Only one church with that many members? I am in the region and those numbers make no sense.
@@fredbecker607 Is ~600 members implausibly large? The average using the previous years' data is ~150.
Well, the independent Baptist Churches seem to be doing well from my perspective in central tidewater Virginia. In our rather small population county there are three independent thriving Baptist churches. I don't remember even seeing an "affiliated" Baptist Church.
It is easy to explain. When you go to a Baptist church they preach politics from the pulpit and it gets old
Then you have not visited my church - I do not preach politics! and there are many pastors like me.
Hi, did you ever think about doing a video about the Mariavite Church?
Likely as simple as:
P=Total Reported Members
C=Total Reporting Churches
D=Total Member Churches
M=Projected Membership
M=(P/C)×D
That seems a good possibility. If so, instead of 100 churches reporting an average of 150 members, it's just one larger church reporting nearly 600 members. Since the increase was maintained, does that mean only that one church continued to report?
Joshua didn't mention it, but went and checked for myself, and yes, since then no more than one in that region has reported. 0 reported in 2019, and 1 in 2020. The 0 reporting does kind of mess up the formula you had, so it could be something else, but perhaps they just do something else in that case?
@WooperSlim Yeah, I looked at the page for 2020. There are too many lines with 0 churches reporting, but memberships are listed. Also, there are so many churches with no expenses. Basically, the data makes no sense.
@@WooperSlim Very likely that simple indeed, but also there's no reason to guess if that's it because it's easily checked. Do the actual numbers bear this out? All the data is right there to check. No need to guess.
@@kirin347 Not "makes no sense" but rather "wildly incomplete." However this is likely all done by volunteers so - ya know, ya get what ya get. That's not a criticism, that's just a reality.
Imagine if no churches kept track of numbers and statistical data and just came together to worship and fellowship
Imagine if the biggest Dog And Pony Show in the Service wasn't the Offering Plate.
I'm not sure we're capable of that. As humans we are preoccupied with statistics, documents and regulations. The Bible is full of info on things like taxes, tax collecting, census taking, government regulations and the like.
Many congregations would lose their buildings if they had to pay property tax. Maintaining tax free status requires record keeping.
God desires quality and not quantity.
@@wjdyr6261 God desires everyone to be saved. He loves us so much that He won't force anyone to accept His free gift of Salvation.
Based on my church experience I think it is very likely that they had very old numbers for some area, not updated from decades. And then they reported the new numbers suddenly, and of course churches where going up some 25 years ago, the number was bigger then they had in the books. It is very common church to not update their denominational numbers until there is new data. If there is no data taken for some state or area, then it can stay the same number for 20 years...
Has a follow up video been posted yet?
My father was an ABC pastor for 40 years. I think it would be fair to,say the denomination has struggled over the years for becoming too liberal. The ABC church I attended in college was young and vibrant. Full house every Sunday. Today, they have to take out pews to make room for more wheelchairs and walkers. The massive, mostly empty building is for sale, and they are looking for a smaller location. That church was in the Midwest. In the Pacific Northwest, my sisters used to attend an ABC church. During the pandemic, it closed for a long time. Very few members returned, as they found churches that were not afraid. I recently saw a John Crist video. He attends church wherever he has a show. It was the ABC church in downtown Portland. Beautiful old building. All but empty on Sunday morning. So very sad. My father would not recognize it today.
Or mostly people are just leaving your religion all together
@@marcusburrows19 Not in Asia and Africa they aren't 😛 these continents are the ones that will matter.
Apparently they weren't 'afraid' of infecting their fellow 'christians' with a potentially deadly disease, which is code for 'they didn't care if they infected others'. Doesn't sound very Christ-like to me.
Church membership in America is declining because they're aligning themselves with the far-right. If anything churches should have no political leaning and accept anyone through their doors.
Damn wheelchair users roasted 🤣🧑🦽🔥
How many were CBF churches that may have become cooperative churches?
Great video, as always
My guess, total members = (number of members reported/number of churches reporting) * total churches. So that if only one above average church reported that would skew the numbers greatly.
Agreed
Looking at the numbers at 2:34, 117,163 is not divisible by 197. So whatever they're doing is at least a little bit better than you're thinking.
Hello there, I think it is interesting that the reporting region sheet did not include the American Baptist Churches of the South which runs through the Eastern Southern States beginning with Maryland and then from Florida west to Texas.
Assuming for argument's sake that the numbers are right, it could be several unpopular churches left or stopped reporting while one very popular church from outside joined. Unlikely, but possible. The names of the reporting churches from each year would provide useful data.
I send those web page response requests ALL THE TIME! From insurance, to supermarkets, to real estate, to sundry items, to produce... hundreds of them. No responses, EVER!
If five loaves and two fishes could feed 5,000, no explanation is necessary.
It seems like maybe there’s some algorithm to estimate membership based on the reporting churches and the fact only 1 church reported made the estimate really wonky.
Great information. Could you cover the topic of "Separation of Church and State"?
You mean a completely made up doctrine that was nowhere in our founding documents? While we will always be a secular government, God is mentioned so often because we are simply a Christian Nation. You see, freedom of religion is not the same thing as freedom from religion. Freedom of religion is a constitutionally-protected right. Freedom from religion is not.
@@richardbullwood5941 Thank you for your response. The information you share is powerful and insightful at the same time. For years I've heard how religion is protected by the founding document. How churches are autonomous. At what point does a secular government under the founding document intercede? What is the watermark that justifies interaction? For me these are questions that I don't find with trusted sites that clarify. Thank you again for your excellent knowledge on these matters and the presentations.
I wonder if you could narrow down the regions that had the spikes or if it was an overall shift. If the percentage is across the board then we can safely assume it's an administrative adjustment. If it's real then we could find where the spikes happened
In the video, he says it is ABCCR. It has to be some data error. Either they changed a program or someone just messed up data entry. I am familiar with the region and the people running it.
@@fredbecker607 I know nothing of the region, the people, or ABC. But I know something about data... 40 years of something... and I agree. It's pretty obviously a data problem, some way or another. Probably a messup, followed by an attempt to fix the messup. It's not exactly praiseworthy - but neither is it likely to be malicious or otherwise "evil." And the attempt to fix it? That is praiseworthy. That is certainly better than burying it. The worst you could probably accuse them of, is sloppy reporting. And that happens.
@@metsfan1873 There is usually a church role book, and ushers count the people in the pews on sunday. It is by no means scientific
Watching all this, I had trouble trying to figure out what point you were trying to make.
Have you tried contacting "American Baptist Church of the Central Region" directly? They have a couple people listed on their webpage you could contact directly.
I have contacted one and will try the others if I don't hear back.
What other factors contributed to the increase of reported members being increased between 2017 and 2019? Also, the question WHY, is secondary, but may shed light on it as well.
As a data source, it should be considered suspect if there is no methodology reported. Is there a definition of a "member" and do all regions use that same definition? From year to year? Do United Mission numbers reflect the actual trend? As I understand the report, this amount is not self reported but comes from the amount received by the ABC.
Maybe on-line membership? That would explain the fewer churches and more members.
Picking up a number of dis-affected UMC (Methodist) members-likely. But probably not to that extent.
I WENT TO A BAPTIST CHURCH CLOSE TO ME. I REAL NEEDED SOMEONE TO TALK TO. MY HEAD WAS IN A BAD PLACE. THE PASTOR SAID I DON'T TIME FOR YOU AND WALKED AWAY.
I WAS BORN AND RAISED IN THE BAPTIST CHURCH. I HATE TO SAY THIS BUT IT SEEMS THEY HAVE LOST THEIR WAY. THAT WAS THE FIRST IN ALONG TIME. I WANTED TO SPEAK TO A PASTOR.
THAT WAS THE FIRST TIME IN SINCE MY FATHER DIED. PEOPLE IN THE CHURCH I KNEW MY WHOLE LIFE TURN THERE BACK ON ME. BECAUSE OF LIES MY MOTHER TOLD THEM. THE PASTOR TOLD TO WALK AWAY FROM A UNBORN CHILD. I RAISED MY SON BY MYSELF. HIS WALKED AWAY FROM THE BOTH OF USE.
Not all baptist churches are like that - many have very concerned pastors that want to help.
@@bobbytutton3270 I HAVE SEEN SO MUCH IN THE BAPTIST CHURCH OVER THE YEARS. One of the first things I seen when I was a child. Where the pastor was having an affair with a Deacon's wife. Another one was where the pastor told all the ladies of the church had nothing to say in a church and keep their mouth shut. I've seen a lot of evil in the church
No matter the denomination, all churches are reluctant to scrub their rolls for attendance.
Churches that are that large probably don't have a handle on exactly how many members they have. My guess is people guessed at some point and that reflects either the large growth or large loses. I always figured that any denomination that knows exactly how many members they have probably doesn't many members.
Trust me, it is a data error. Could be a program change or someone put in bad data. Their are no churches even close to that size in ABCCR.
Good find! Sounds like a typo of a regional admin...
The answer's probably in existing churches that joined the ABC and dual aligned churches.
It may be worth checking into the DC Baptist Convention. They had been aligned with the ABC and the SBC, but I think the SBC ended that.
That would show up in "# of Churces," but doesn't.
@@jameswoodard4304 the difference between one year's number of churches and the next is not just churches that left or closed. That number is probably greater. They're still adding new churches.
I go to a Baptist church but for me it doesn’t matter as long as the church preaches the Bible and is all about repentance and following Jesus Christ and his commandments, and not being woke and following the ways of the world
I really don't know enough about the ABC to say this specifically applies, but there's a reason so many denominations are dying off: they abandoned age-old biblical truths for the sake of inclusivity and fitting in with the secular worldview. If you tell people that what belief one embraces - or doesn't embrace - doesn't matter, and that God fully accepts them no matter what their behavior, those receiving that message will internalize it. They'll say, "I'm perfect just as I am; why would I need to join any church?"
Yep. When you reject Biblical Truths in favor of what modern society thinks is "correct" or "important", that is a recipe for failure. People now WANT to hear the Truth! And the churches that are preaching it are the ones who experience true growth.
as an atheist but very interested in all things religion, this is an extremely informative video. thank you
I remember back in the 80s tree huggers wanted to stop logging so they grabbed a mascot, the spotted owl.
They said their were only 5000 birds and the numbers were declining fast.
The logging industry counted and they said, we've tagged 12000 of the birds.
This debate went on for several years until the government forced a third party count and it was revealed there were over 20,000 owls.
There was no decline or disappearance of species.
So why the discrepancy?
Money!
In a churches case, the collection plate is passed and tithes collected.
But if the money brought into the coffers doesn't match the attendance then people in suits with big pencils gets nervous.
If a pastor is inflating numbers? Follow the money!
That would be a huge typo. I just can’t see it being anything else.
The place where the typo is seems fairly obvious. The 2018 Central Region report only shows one church reporting (where over 100 churches had reported in previous years), yet there's a huge increase in membership. There's obviously something wrong with the numbers there.
This video is a testimony to churches being Corporation's, these Corporation's will go through the time of Jacob's trouble, the Great Tribulation. The members of these Corporation's who are in the body of Christ Church the Apostle Paul tells "but you brethren are not appointed to wrath " . Make sure, first and foremost you are in Christ, the body of Christ Church. Your Justification then Christ in you your Santification.
This really could be a typo. Because they seem to be assuming that numbers are unchanged unless reported otherwise, it’s possible that one church accidentally pretended a number to their report and hasn’t submitted one since, causing the error to linger.
Some random thoughts: 1. Are they measuring members, or average attendance? 2. Does the church remove people who seldom or never attend from the lists? Many churches seldom revise their membership lists, it would be too depressing. They probably have dead people on them. 3. Many people today grew up in the anti-organization 1970's, so may attend occasionally but don't want to formally "join" a church - or any other organization for that matter. Secular organizations are having the same problems. Yet Jesus himself and His disciples set the church up as an organization with a chain of command. Without organization little gets done and even less lasts. 4. Churches that have abandoned the Bible as their basis have left themselves with little to offer - secular organizations can "do good" without requiring anything of anyone. 5. Is "a charismatic man/woman" bringing in crowds for a year or two and then moving on, or falling into sin and driving people away? That could account for short term blips.
Watching this channel reminded me this : Luke 11v17
I believe that’s why the Kingdom announced still isn’t established in this world.
Almost like government statistics.
Even a reply with something like, "We'll look into this and get back to you" would have been nice. In any case, they are almost certainly declining.
I served as music director for an ABC church in Michigan about 20 years ago. It had once been a thriving congregation, the oldest church in that city, with a sanctuary seating over 500 and a 4-storey Sunday school wing. But it was dwindling by the time I arrived. At the time I left, average attendance was down to c. 90 per Sunday. A year later, I was told that it was down to half that. Now the church survives only by sharing the building with a group of other non-profit organizations.
Very sad that this is happening in many denominations.
American Christianity is dying. Soon we will be singing "ding dong the witch is dead" and dancing in the street.
@@clydewillisStrange daysmany people are now atheist. I know black people are becoming and learning about Israelites.
A study of religious history shows that believers from one chunk of time, say the 1300s, hold many drastically different beliefs than their predecessors a few hundred years previously and the same for generations after them.
The beliefs aren't consistent through time. It's crap. It isn't real. It doesn't reflect reality. And millions each year globally are coming to this conclusion.
Where did everybody go? Which churches did you hear they joined? How much was people dying off? How many people continued to profess Christianity but did not attend church anywhere? Was there no church discipline or membership?
Is there any possibility that people who are leaving small rural churches to join suburban mega-churches were counted in both churches?
I’m pretty sure it’s the other way around.
People are leaving megachurches in droves, and small little rural churches are bursting at the seems with life and youth.
@@mcgheebentle1958 If what you believe is true, it does not make what @ladnit.......dad said any less true. Without transfer of membership forms being filled out, a person could belong to as many churches as they choose to join, inflating the memberships of all those churches, even thought that person isn't likely attending all of them.
@@normanacree1635 I don’t disagree, I’m just saying that I don’t think that the small church to megachurch is the movement right now. I think it’s megachurch to small church. Which still corroborates the double-counting theory, which I think is a solid explanation.
I was just having a conversation about this type of trend earlier this week. Seems to me that the more liberal communities are losing members to the more conservative and traditional ones. I'm Catholic and you won't see more young couples with big families anywhere than the Traditional Latin or Ordinariate parishes. Similar for the protestant communities I'm connected with through friends, it seems like all of the mega communities that stream their services or are liberal are shrinking while the conservative and more traditional ones are growing.
People who want the liberal stuff aren't going to church as much and the people who don't are going to places they feel are more in line with Scripture and traditional beliefs. This combined with online attendance causing communities to shrink and giving to decrease is all culminating is a growth of traditional and conservative communities and the death of the more liberal and mega ones. That's my take on the limited data and anecdotal evidence I've seen.
My Dad is the pastor of a small C&MA church in Nebraska. It's fairly conservative and more families joined the church last year than have in decades.
@@stevenreckling203 sounds about right. What is C&MA?
@@JudeMichaelPeterson Christian and Missionary Alliance
true. seems like a lot of young, liberal people just leave the Church and do there own thing, while conservative people become more hardliner. I know a lot of people who become pagan or non-religious because there's less rules attached compared to the Church and they find it more freeing.
We just ended 4 years of seeing the true nature of many 'christians' who embraced a leader who is the antithesis of what it means to be Christian. This 'selling of their souls' for short term gains (federal judges, supreme court decisions, etc.) turned many Christians off and they simply left, realizing their church had sold out to this scam artist. The ones remaining were left to join those other conservative churches who are still more than happy to embrace the extreme right wingers in their attempts to 'return' this country back into what they describe as a 'Christian nation'. Problem is: who gets to decide the meaning of 'Christian'?
This reminds me of Disraeli's comment about lies & statistics.
Hmm....could the pandemic have something to do with those numbers? A lot of churches went to online only, and stepped up their streaming game. If not actual membership, maybe they were counting people tuning in to watch as potential members?
Ask a Baptist what baptism is for. You'd think they'd know (seeing as how it's in the name and all) but I haven't met a single Baptist who confesses (i.e. says the same thing) about baptism that the New Testament teaches. No, not one.
IIRC they're the Northern side of the Baptist split that occurred during the US Civil War. Is that correct? FWIW, they've got some very beautiful churches on some very pricy real estate here in Connecticut. And while they might be theologically liberal, I don't think I've seen their buildings festooned with rainbow and trans rights flags, as is otherwise a VERY common decoration on Protestant churches around here. (Methodist, Congregationalist, etc. )
Actually the ABC did not become a denomination until 1907. The SBC formed out of the Tri-annual committee because they would not allow slave owners to be missionaries. Then in 1932 the GARBC broke off the ABC due to liberalism, and in 1945 - the CBA left the ABC over doctrine.
The "1 church reporting" is obviously an anomaly, which calls into question the rest of the numbers. I don't think this was malicious, someone just messed up the spreadsheet. Why only 1 church reporting with huge jump in total members? It's just a mistake.
a baptist church had a squirrel inhabiting the sanctuary. the new preacher vowed to take care of it.
so he saved and baptised it and it never returned.
Data science meet denominational politics! Fun!
What is the difference between the Southern Baptist and the American Baptist Churches USA
Here's hoping that you get a response from them ASAP... and then we'll see a follow up video from you I suspect! :)
How many SBC members are leaving?
When referring to churches or denominations, what is your working definition of "mainline"?
It seems possible that you are using a different definition than some other writers and publishers are using.
I categorize a denomination as mainline if it is generally considered so by pollsters and religion reporters. I give a lot more details in this video: ua-cam.com/video/k4R1UVQamsY/v-deo.html
@@ReadyToHarvestAs I was re-watching the video you suggested, it occured to me that one of the things that may be skewing the numbers of different categories of denominations is the whole concept of membership.
An example of this is a baptist congregation near where we lived some years ago. When I learned that a small orchestra was accompanying the singing of that congregation, I "got myself invited" to attend the orchestra rehearsals. After a few weeks, that led to be being invited to play with the orchestra on Sundays.
Neither my wife nor I ever considered ourselves "baptists" but I figured I needed the practice so I played during services about twice a month for a couple of years.
One day someone gave us a "church directory". Imagine our surprise to discover that our names and contact information was listed. But here's the wrinkle. I'm almost certain that most baptists agree that "the church" consists of believers, i.e. the church may be organized but no organization of the church IS the church. But, at the bottom of the page where was this explanation for why some names were identified with an asterisk as "church members" - which almost certainly was a reference to people who met specific behavior or doctrinal criteria and were, therefore, eligible to vote, hold elected offices, etc.
Do you think there are denominations that continue to keep people's names "on the books" even after they have indicated a desire to disaffiliate?
I think that his definition is the generally accepted one. Really a "mainline Protestant denomination" is one that an editor of the New York Times could attend without being ridiculed for it around the coffee machine.
@@rogermetzger7335 I'm Methodist & have been all my life. In our denomination, you are considered a "member" only if you choose to officially become a member - you tell the pastor that you wish to join the church as a member. There is a short ceremonial event during a church service when there are new members joining. I've belonged to about 6 different churches in different places I've lived, & when they are putting out a new directory, they announce it in advance in the bulletin and church newsletter. Anyone can agree to be included - both official members and those who attend but for whatever reason have not become official members. It seems pretty weird to me that any church would include someone in their church directory without asking permission.
Your right because they now sing in their songs concerning Jehovah as their jireh meaning provider when it is the Almighty God our Father JESUS the very CHRIST!!!! They said if we are teaching you anything but the truth you must tell us so I did and for the truth they literally kicked me out from being amongst themselves to this very day and that was 8years ago. REPENT YOU BAPTISTS !!!!! For the Lord will not count you as his own if you don't repent . EXODUS 6:3 JOHN 8: 56 ,57 AND REVELATION 21: 22
Amen! People do not realize this (because they fail to show diligence in order to be approved by Jesus Christ), but the names “Jehovah” and “Yahweh” are derived from the Tetragrammaton (YHWH or YHVH). The Tetragrammaton is NOT Biblical. It comes from the Kabbalah. I discovered this by reading a large portion of A.E. Waite’s book, “The Holy Kabbalah.” It dedicates a huge emphasis on the ESOTERIC knowledge (and the Tetragrammaton is, indeed, esoteric) instead of the EXOTERIC knowledge found in trusting and calling upon the Name of Jesus Christ.
I praise Jesus Christ for releasing me from the bonds of a Ruckmanite Baptist Church around June 2023! 🙏🏻 I will NEVER backslide from this position, and these cult members are “praying” for my swift return. I ask Jesus Christ every day to bounce those prayers right off of me! They will not work! I will never “play the harlot” again!
@@vixenrevitup Let us keep Looking up always for the return of the Lord our God who will take us up and out of arms way before he comes to Judge the World for it's offences. Love you 💕 God bless you in Christ I pray my sister. 👍✝️🥲✌️
@@william1863 Absolutely! The return of the Lord will be so much swifter if we in America follow 2 Chronicles 7:14:
“and My people who are called by My name humble themselves and pray and seek My face and turn from their wicked ways, then I will hear from heaven, will forgive their sin and will heal their land.”
National repentance will please the Lord our God! We, as a nation, are to seek His Kingdom here on Earth, follow His Commandments, and turn away from fleshly desires. The more people realize this truth, the sooner He will return!
I send my prayers and my love to you also, brother! 🙏🏻💖
at what age does the church start recording members children as members ?
most baptist churches do not count individuals as members until they are born again and then baptized. Personally, I would not ever consider baptizing someone under the age of 8.
Have you considered the possibility the membership has fallen due to pastors failing to teach God's word? I attended Baptist church years ago, quit going because I wasn't getting the meat of God's word, rather what I heard was talk about a rapture which is a falsehood. If a church is based on falsehoods God will not bless them.
I was raised in a southern baptist church. In my late 20s, I was invited to an Assembly of God church. During "worship," you could feel the presence of God in that place. There is a difference between hearing and experiencing. Many churches in my area are going nondenominational,even the AoG.
How would you demonstrate that what you felt was the presence of God?
when you say during "worship" are you talking about the music or the entire service?
if god is not there its no church
Random but can you do a church (denomination) explained on the Church of God of Prophecy
Look, the biggest problem with any of these religions is man himself. These preachers that head congregations usually only give sermons on what they think is important. Also, many of these religious leaders like to push fear and even hate of others! For example, the love and respect for others that Jesus taught is seldom part of many sermons.
Can anyone show me in their Holy Bible where their commandment of "Thou Shalt Not Lie" doesn't apply here?
I am not surprised at all if it was accurate. In my city, churches have been shifting members for many reasons 1. A Pastor retires and half the congregation leaves. 2. A Church shuts its doors and combines with another church. 3. A Pastor has a scandal causing a big exodus.
They might all end up at the Baptist church because it is close in style, their friends went there, they followed a Pastor there, the youth went there and parents wanted their kids to continue with same friend group.
Church membership rolls are among the most inaccurate records anywhere. People frequently move, but telling their church, with whom the relationship may have been estranged for a long time, is the last thing these on-paper members are going to do.
It’s a shot in the dark, like trying to guess the number of jelly beans in a jar.
My denomination records members in a church wide database, therefore not depending on congregational reporting. And then it doesn’t matter where a member lives or goes to church.
@@kevinmatthews7180
They first have to define “member,” though. That’s my whole point.
@@keithwilson6060 Methodist here. In our denomination a member is a person who specifically decides to join the church as an official member & goes through a ceremony for it & is then recorded as such. Some people attend for years and choose not to ever become a member. If you move away & join another Methodist church, the pastor at the new church officially transfers your membership from the church you were last a member at. If you don't officially join/become a member at a new church, you are still on the membership roll at the prior church.
@@playhooky
You might be surprised to learn that a lot of evangelical denominations have a similar record keeping system. But that doesn’t speak to its accuracy.
@@keithwilson6060 Nope, not surprised; figured they probably did.
As an engineer I greatly appreciate your video. It's a great example of looking for the truth under the data.
I went to one of these. It was
nice.
Here's a question: How do the institutional reports by various religions, align with self-reporting by various polling organizations and by the Census and other such functions? I wouldn't expect exact matches - they happen on different time schedules, and pollsters and census-takers only sample and may use different categories. But still, I'd like to think that they line up "pretty good" - - - I would be fascinated if you could do a video about this, comparing institutional self-reports with outside counting methods?
What would you hope to find besides they are all different
@@jamesparson I'm curious about how different, and if they differ regionally. Some might count "high" and some "low" and some might be inconsistent between regions. That would tell us the difference between self-identification and institutional claims. And that would be fascinating. Why wouldn't I want to know?
Unsurprisingly I'm most interested in knowing about "my" group. But I'd be fascinated to learn about all of them.
I assume you understand that self-published statistics that aren't corroborated or audited, aren't really anything. It's not even dishonesty, it's mostly simple sloppiness or laziness.
In the US, religious statistics come in two basic varieties: Input to intra-denominational funding distribution, and general public bragging rights. In most of Europe, it's all about government funding distribution (In most of the world outside the US, the government picks up most of the costs of most religions. Here they only pick up the amount they exempt from taxes, so we get to pretend that the government doesn't pay for religion, but it surely does anyhow, or at least a hefty percentage of whatever is collected.) Sorry, but these are the plain cold facts. Tax breaks are as good as payments - just ask any tax accountant.
I'd bet money that the ones who get more from the central institution based on headcount, make sure to count every head. And those who don't, don't spend anything like the same effort counting heads. In fact I do bet money on this, I just call it contributing to my own congregation. I'm just curious to know if I'm guessing right or not. And in that very same sense, I bet that you make the same bet on yours. I just don't know if you realized it or not.
Whatever it is that you pray to, doesn't actually need your institution to keep stats - that's not religious in nature, it's just administrative and managerial. Apologies if you thought otherwise.
Mind you, without the administration and management, nobody would fix the roof when it leaks. Allowing the roof to keep leaking would not be very pious at all, I don't care who or Who or what you think sent the rain in the first place.
I take back the apology. Sorry not sorry. My religion, and I assume yours, values honesty.
Thank God someone said it
Speaking in my personal capacity as an ABCUSA pastor, I have experience with our reporting forms. As a trained program evaluator, the method for collecting data isn't quite as precise as one might like. They are sent individually by the regions to the churches, who in turn fill them out and return them to the region. They are usually signed by a pastor and a church officer. Some church records are loosely kept. Some pastors ignore the paper in their inboxes. Membership can be defined differently from place to place. That we cannot get clean, fully accurate counts of membership is an artifact of the congregational polity and voluntary association principles. There are also many points along the route to the national office in which an input error can occur. We're not highly centralized like connectional polity churches.
Thanks for sharing. Hopefully this data issue gets worked through.
I wonder how much these numbers might be affected by liberal interest groups affiliating with American Baptist Churches. I left the ABC after 34 years. I could not reconcile not only what was being preached, but the very low view of Scripture that I experienced in the preaching, with my convictions. In my opinion, there is nothing unifying American Baptists except their desire to support ungodly, unbiblical causes. Back to my point, I wonder how many non-Christian, liberal individuals unite around liberal causes, and use the covering of a "Christian" denomination to accomplish their political goals.
what do they get in return?
Nothing. That's why this is explainable as a simple mistake and not a fraudulent scheme.
The thing(s) that are the matter with the Baptist Church are the same things that trouble any church, school, neighborhood bar...people.
You see a lot of United Methodist church buildings up for sale. I've not seen many ABC's though.
their members also were split on the gayy issue, clearly they didnt read or obey their Bibles.