Thank you Anthony! Please continue with this as it is very important. In many countries people are just starting to get alarmed. Though this disease is the worst in 100 years. Strenght and knowledge to all helping with saving humans!
Yes, Thailand's health system is a great model for efficient service and strong primary health care. I think in the future I will do a series on the health system, as well. Thanks for the comment!
Fantastic work Anthony! I have been looking for a clear definition of 'Patients Under Investigation' and how it relates to statistics generally reported worldwide. Your modeling actually helps reduce anxiety as it is better to know the projected real numbers than having to deal with the x factor. Please continue :)
A more transparent case study to compare will be South Korea > South Korea reported Saturday an eight-fold jump in COVID-19 cases in four days to 433, most of them linked to a church and a hospital.
I am confused how you are able to use the Ministry of Health data to come up with a benchmark of 20% if the confirmed cases have been suspect all along. How can you validate this benchmark if the confirmed case have been suspect all along? I mean, if I look at every single day of reporting I see no days where 20% of PUI match the confirmed case number. I am confused...can you explain? Are you perhaps using data from Singapore as a benchmark and I somehow am not knowing this from the video? I really like what you have done in presenting this, but I just can't figure this out.
Yes, I mention briefly in the video that up until Feb 2, the Ministry reported detailed diagnoses of all PUIs. For example, what % were ultimately diagnosed with Influenza A, Influenza B, COVID-19, etc. From that information, which only covers the first ~60 PUIs, it was about 25% of PUIs were ultimately diagnosed with COVID-19, while the other ~80% were diagnosed with other diseases. Since then, such detailed information has no longer been provided.
@@AnthonyKuster Maybe I ma computing incorrectly. If I take 14 Jan, there are 15 PUI and 1 confirmed case. 20% of PUI would be 3, not 1 If I take 25 Jan there are 84 PUI and 5 confirmed. 20% would be 17 cases, not the reported 5 cases. This is what confuses me. What data are you able to use that validates the relationship between PUI and expected cases. I'm lost on how you are arriving at any sort of benchmark for "anticipated" cases
SInce the data is much more reliable coming from Singapore, I originally thought you were using that data to create a relationship between PUI and anticipated cases, but you are not doing that...correct? If so, then my point is...how do you use data from Thai Ministry to create a benchmark when you can't tell what data of theirs is reliable and what is not.
@@steveturner6732 It's not based on PUIs. It's based on completed lab diagnostics (a sub-set of PUIs). Some PUIs did not have lab diagnostics completed on them. Especially at the beginning, there was a significant lag time in results and a limit in the testing capacity. That has probably improved, but we don't have the exact data to know to what extent. Up until February 2, MoPH reported complete diagnostic results completed. You can see that info here: ddc.moph.go.th/viralpneumonia/eng/file/situation/situation-no30-020263_1.pdf What you see is that 80 diagnostics were completed. 61 were non-COVID-19. 19 were confirmed cases. 19/80 is ~24%. To be clear, my assumption of 20% is exactly that. It's an assumption. Because we don't have information on the number of diagnostics actually completed, we can't assume that we have the results on all PUIs. Does that answer your question?
You better study Iran. I’m a thai and find my country’s situation not interesting at all. I’m already over informed by local news and the health ministry.
just wait...Italy , Iran lie about infected then spread like a wildfire because gov lie and people don't protect themself. They didn't told people how to protect and careful from virus.
Thank you Anthony! Please continue with this as it is very important. In many countries people are just starting to get alarmed. Though this disease is the worst in 100 years. Strenght and knowledge to all helping with saving humans!
By the way, our country ranked #6 in medical service , better than most of europian country.
Yes, Thailand's health system is a great model for efficient service and strong primary health care. I think in the future I will do a series on the health system, as well. Thanks for the comment!
Fantastic work Anthony! I have been looking for a clear definition of 'Patients Under Investigation' and how it relates to statistics generally reported worldwide. Your modeling actually helps reduce anxiety as it is better to know the projected real numbers than having to deal with the x factor. Please continue :)
Thanks! I'll try to have an update every few days, depending on how often interesting information comes out.
A more transparent case study to compare will be South Korea >
South Korea reported Saturday an eight-fold jump in COVID-19 cases in four days to 433, most of them linked to a church and a hospital.
They don’t test hence the Low numbers. Their neighbour Malaysia already hit 200k and tiny Singapore 60k. Who’s gonna believe their numbers reported?
I am confused how you are able to use the Ministry of Health data to come up with a benchmark of 20% if the confirmed cases have been suspect all along. How can you validate this benchmark if the confirmed case have been suspect all along? I mean, if I look at every single day of reporting I see no days where 20% of PUI match the confirmed case number. I am confused...can you explain?
Are you perhaps using data from Singapore as a benchmark and I somehow am not knowing this from the video?
I really like what you have done in presenting this, but I just can't figure this out.
Yes, I mention briefly in the video that up until Feb 2, the Ministry reported detailed diagnoses of all PUIs. For example, what % were ultimately diagnosed with Influenza A, Influenza B, COVID-19, etc. From that information, which only covers the first ~60 PUIs, it was about 25% of PUIs were ultimately diagnosed with COVID-19, while the other ~80% were diagnosed with other diseases. Since then, such detailed information has no longer been provided.
@@AnthonyKuster Maybe I ma computing incorrectly. If I take 14 Jan, there are 15 PUI and 1 confirmed case. 20% of PUI would be 3, not 1 If I take 25 Jan there are 84 PUI and 5 confirmed. 20% would be 17 cases, not the reported 5 cases. This is what confuses me. What data are you able to use that validates the relationship between PUI and expected cases. I'm lost on how you are arriving at any sort of benchmark for "anticipated" cases
@@AnthonyKuster I still do not understand what it is int he data that enables you to set a benchmark of 20% or 25%
SInce the data is much more reliable coming from Singapore, I originally thought you were using that data to create a relationship between PUI and anticipated cases, but you are not doing that...correct? If so, then my point is...how do you use data from Thai Ministry to create a benchmark when you can't tell what data of theirs is reliable and what is not.
@@steveturner6732 It's not based on PUIs. It's based on completed lab diagnostics (a sub-set of PUIs). Some PUIs did not have lab diagnostics completed on them. Especially at the beginning, there was a significant lag time in results and a limit in the testing capacity. That has probably improved, but we don't have the exact data to know to what extent.
Up until February 2, MoPH reported complete diagnostic results completed. You can see that info here: ddc.moph.go.th/viralpneumonia/eng/file/situation/situation-no30-020263_1.pdf
What you see is that 80 diagnostics were completed. 61 were non-COVID-19. 19 were confirmed cases. 19/80 is ~24%.
To be clear, my assumption of 20% is exactly that. It's an assumption. Because we don't have information on the number of diagnostics actually completed, we can't assume that we have the results on all PUIs. Does that answer your question?
They’re just not truthful, simple as that
You better study Iran. I’m a thai and find my country’s situation not interesting at all. I’m already over informed by local news and the health ministry.
Unlucky Thailand, here.. Indonesia, with 270 million people, still no case reported. Thanks Allah!!
just wait...Italy , Iran lie about infected then spread like a wildfire because gov lie and people don't protect themself. They didn't told people how to protect and careful from virus.
Somebody else read the report I did with the "SARS-cov-2" hmm weird right? Have a good one
ช่วงต้นปีที่ผ่านมาอากาศเมืองไทยเช้าอากาศเย็นกลางวันร้อนมากไม่มีฝนเลยความชื้นน้อย ละอองน้ำในอากาศซึ่งเป็นที่เกาะจับของตัวไวรัสไม่มี
จะเปรียบกับสิงคโปร์ก็ไม่ได้สิงคโปร์เป็นเกาะสถานที่คับแคบมีตึกสูงเยอะทุกตึกมีระบบ
ปรับอากาศประกอบได้รับไอน้ำจากทะเลด้วย
Yes, in my next video, I plan to talk about the possible role of weather and climate in the spread of the virus