The Strange Pattern of US Presidents Dying in Office
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- Опубліковано 8 лис 2023
- Since 1840, seven consecutive US presidents died in office. This curse came to be known as the Curse of Tippecanoe. President Reagan was the first to supposedly break the curse when he managed to survive his assassination attempt.
References:
[1] R. K. Bluhm, "Battle of Tippecanoe," Britannica, 31 October 2022. [Online]. Available: www.britannica.com/event/Batt.... [Accessed October 2023].
[2] J. Shepherd, "Warfare History Network," Warfare History Network, February 2011. [Online]. Available: warfarehistorynetwork.com/art.... [Accessed November 2023].
[3] R. C. Wilson, Tecumseh's Revange The Curse of Tippecanoe, Smashwords Edition, 2022.
[4] Wikipedia, "Curse of Tippecanoe," Wikipedia, 13 September 2023. [Online]. Available: en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Curse_o.... [Accessed 4 October 2023].
[5] M. Kelly, "Did Tecumseh’s Curse Kill Seven US Presidents?," ThoughtCo., 16 February 2021. [Online]. Available: www.thoughtco.com/tecumsehs-c.... [Accessed October 2023].
[6] ABC News, "fivethirtyeight," ABC News Internet Ventures, 8 11 2023. [Online]. Available: projects.fivethirtyeight.com/.... [Accessed 11 2023]. - Розваги
This do have something to do with engineering: Statistics! If you flip a coin 1000 times (some times less) you will notice impossible patterns like getting the same result 10 or 20 times in a row. Well, it is not impossible, it is just less likely than us humans would like to understand.
Also, the presidents did not die every 20 years. They were elected every 20 years, which is quite likely to hit when a full term is 4 years. The fact that they roughly died every 20 years was then fixed by picking a random date that fit a pattern: The year of election. Other dates could have been picked, like year of birth, year of finishing education, year of whatever.
When taking this much freedom it only takes a bit of lucky statistics (or unlucky for the presidents) to get a perfect pattern.
And if the presidents did not fit, other public persons could have been put into something in a similar way.
Humans are great at finding patterns, even if they are not there. It's a good survival tactic to run from anything that looks like a lion; it is much more expensive to be eaten by a lion 1 time than to run away from a shadow 1000 times.
Love this answer, absolutely on point! pinned 📌
@@TheEngineeringHubthanks for covering this i believe this curse has merit although tenkskwatawa,s prediction of stopping the bullets from harming his warriors didnt come true,he seems to have placed this hex out of grief some say he placed this curse after tecumseh was killed in 1813 by harrisons army also the shawnee where forced off their land afterwards tenkskwatwa,also united other tribes with his philosophy,in abstaining from white culture he had tecumseh created a broad alliance to resist william H harrison,maybe the prophet in a explosion of grief not only for the shawnee but other tribes who where removed did begin this hex our curse its believed that the list of presidents who fell to this pattern came from our where born our a senator in which the shawnee and the other tribes lived in the midwest🤔
@@TheEngineeringHub ive been reading about tecumseh ,theres not only the famous eclipse🌑of 1806,that was a backlash on Harrison but in 1811 going into 1812 ,its said Tecumseh predicted a rare earthquake that shook the whole midwest ,creating havoc i think its called The Madrid quake as well il research it further 🤔
The idea is right, but still, the sequence is an outlier. The election year is quite natural when speaking of a president; if you choose the inauguration year instead, you still land at an arith. progression by 20. These are the two most prominent dates. The age at marriage evenly dividing 20 would be, of course, a stretch. There was one more president who died in office, so P(died in office|elected in a year dividing 20)=6/7, quite abnormal, if we accept P(elected in a year dividing 20)=1/5, which is not much of a stretch. The take-home is outliers happen. We have to consider, of course, also P(NOT died in office|elected in a year dividing 20). I'm leaving this to you as an exercise. :-)
You significantly overestimated the coin toss. A fair coin run lengths obey geometric distribution PDF=$p(1-p)^n$ with p=1/2, where n is the length of a run of identical outcomes. For n=10, this is 1/2048, you should expect about 1/2 of a run of length 10 in every 1000-long coin toss sequence. The probability of a run of 20 identical outcomes is 2^{-11}, so you expect to find approximately 1/2000 20-runs in a 1000-long fair coin sequence, or about 1 in a sequence of 2 million tosses. Here are 1000 tosses:
coin = RandomInteger[{0, 1}, 1000];
Tally[coin]
=>> {{0, 504}, {1, 496}}
Length /@ Split[coin] // Tally/*Sort
=>> {{1, 253}, {2, 129}, {3, 76}, {4, 34}, {5, 10}, {6, 6}, {7, 3}, {8, 1}, {10, 1}}
The first number in a pair is the length, the second the count of runs of that length. See the pattern: EV for the length n=1 is 1/4, for 2, 1/8, for 3, 1/16, and-bingo-we got one 10-run, which we should expect about half the time. We got no n=9 tho (EV≈1) and got short of runs of length n=8's EV (EV≈2). I also threw a coin in a few sequences of 1,000,000, and 20 occurs in about half of the sequences of tosses, as expected. The probability of getting the length of _20 or more_ is, obviously, twice as high as that of n=20 exactly (from well-known properties of the sum of consecutive 2^{-n}, a geometric progression, 1-CDF(19)=PDF(19); 1-CDF(n)=PDF(n) and PDF(n-1)=2‧PDF(n) is true for any n for this particular distribution). Here's the last experimental run:
coin = RandomInteger[{0, 1}, 1000000];
Tally[coin]
=>> {{1, 500527}, {0, 499473}}
(Length /@ Split[coin] // Tally/*Sort)[[-5 ;;]]
{{15, 12}, {16, 9}, {17, 4}, {18, 2}, {25, 1}}
On this run, I didn't get the length of exactly 20 (EV≈1/2), but got 1 of the length 20 or more (EV≈1). I got 1 n=20 on 2 other runs each. Quite unremarkable for EV≈1/2.
Read my other comment about the bald-hairy pattern. Freak patterns do occur. :-)
Interesting history there! Cool to see a departure from your regular topics
Leon Csolgosz is a personal hero of mine :)
are you sure you uploaded this to the right channel?
Oh s*it ... wrong channel
@@TheEngineeringHubHaha, where was it supposed to go?
Waiting this theory if it proofs 2020)))
COULD YOU DO A VIDEO ON YOUR COUSIN, ''MADS''
hey now, i think todays "elected" officials ought to still lead us into battle.
There is a fascinating pattern regarding luxurious hair alternating with complete or nearly complete absence thereof, sported by the leaders of Russia, spanning hereditary monarchs, heads (no pun intended) of the short-living Russian Republic, then Soviet leaders, and then Russian presidents, unbroken since 1825 to this day, for nearly 100 years. It's quite a rigid pattern: you may exclude those who were in power for less than a year-and it still continues unbroken. Set the plank arbitrarily at 6 months, and the pattern still holds: when a baldie held the highest office for less than 6 months, the career of his hairy-headed successor was equally short. Wikipedia has the list (easy to confirm using other sources): en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Bald-hairy.
I did not know this, very interesting. Sometimes, our ability to notice/look for patterns really amazes me. If anything, it proves that we have evolved around this ability.
Trump missed his chance.
I demand we elect Amy Schumer during the 2040 presidential election
HA! HA! hmmmmm
🙅👋
No gracias.
Thought this was a BS free channel. unsubbed.
Apparently he posted it here accidentally.
😭😭😭😭😭