Ominous Clouds Forming in China's Economic Data
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- Опубліковано 14 лип 2024
- China’s recent economic numbers are the second worst in its history?!
Leland Miller, CEO of China Beige Book, argues this using his firm’s proprietary data from the third quarter of 2019.
He breaks down the discrepancies between the data his firm has collected and the official narrative espoused by the Chinese authorities.
Miller shares his prediction for the maximum upside and downside scenarios for the Chinese economy over the next decade. Filmed on September 26, 2019, in New York.
TIMESTAMPS:
00:01:40 What Differentiates China Beige Book?
00:02:38 How Does China Beige Book Collect Chinese Economic Data?
00:03:27 What Does The Data Suggest is Happening Now?
00:04:50 What has Changed in the Data?
00:08:23 Problems with the Official Story
00:09:29 When will Economic Slowdown cause Chinese Leadership to Panic?
00:11:31 What's the Real Impact of Trade Wars on the Chinese Economy?
00:13:14 How will Beijing Rewrite the Growth Narrative?
00:14:59 Which Countries Are the Most Vulnerable to A Chinese Demand Drought?
00:15:52 How Does the Trump Administration Fit into the Narrative?
00:19:46 What is the Impact of the Breakdown of the Original Trade Deal?
00:22:07 What are the Chances of a New Deal?
00:24:55 What's the Maximum Upside and Maximum Downside?
#China #macroeconomics #RealVision
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TIMESTAMPS:
00:01:40 What Differentiates China Beige Book?
00:02:38 How Does China Beige Book Collect Chinese Economic Data?
00:03:27 What Does The Data Suggest is Happening Now?
00:04:50 What has Changed in the Data?
00:08:23 Problems with the Official Story
00:09:29 When will Economic Slowdown cause Chinese Leadership to Panic?
00:11:31 What's the Real Impact of Trade Wars on the Chinese Economy?
00:13:14 How will Beijing Rewrite the Growth Narrative?
00:14:59 Which Countries Are the Most Vulnerable to A Chinese Demand Drought?
00:15:52 How Does the Trump Administration Fit into the Narrative?
00:19:46 What is the Impact of the Breakdown of the Original Trade Deal?
00:22:07 What are the Chances of a New Deal?
00:24:55 What's the Maximum Upside and Maximum Downside?
👉 Do you want even more content like this? And to see this video before we release it here? Become a member of Real Vision -- get started here: rvtv.io/membership
Amazing channel, but you got to change the sound in between every question its really annoying .
@@alexleanh Excellent point. In fact, this YT channel smells propagandistic from a mile away
@@alexleanh Are you going to do your own research then? What is China's actual YoY% GDP growth? What is the actual U.S. inflation rate? Do I even need to keep going or is this starting to make sense?
@@luckyone7878 We made the change recently for premium subscribers. Because our youtube channel features old videos it will b a while until you see it here. Soon enough!
The one thing American capitalists do not see is that the Chinese leaderships are atheistic Communists. This means they do not believe in the afterlife and are therefore inclined to making their heaven here on earth rather than set a course for China that would be beneficial for the coming generations. So what you’re seeing in China are lottery type decisions whereby they use up China’s assets hoping for quick returns in order that they reap the benefits and be a great and powerful part of that China in their lifetime.
i avoid buying "made in china" and chinese brands even if i have to pay more. I get much better quality.
Diego Suplado best comment in here 👍🏻🤓
@@MayaAMorella thank you Maya!
@dominic k i have not seen latin made products here, but i would buy latino made instead of china anything out of principle and for 100% better quality.
Diego Suplado I love hespanic 💕 ❤️
@@Bobelponge123 muchos gracias usted!
Enormous amounts of credit to those who can't pay it back? Where have I heard this before....
I believe the CEO's could care less after cashing out after sending there stock prices up with all that debt the corporation can never pay back. I believe I heard that same story with the mortgages and there secured bonds in 2007/08. I will NEVER happen again right...?
Lending Money to Nations in the knowledge that they cannot repay the loan, is a sure way to gain control over such nations. Malaya has already been ringing those alarm bells and warning the Philippines, with its Build Build Build program.
Finally, a realistic look at the status of the Chinese economy.
I suppose it's better to dream than to accept reality.
I really like when the truth is being spoken!
I don't. I kinda like my bubble.
@@alexleanh he doesn't
I have been to China several times in the last few years. The country is doing just fine. Go there to see with your own eyes. Don't just believe in this kind of propaganda.
“The truth” 😆😆😆😆
Everyone knows China’s economy is filled with fake numbers, but the question is how bad are the numbers being padded?
It’s only a matter of time that China runs into serious trouble.
One of the most informative and substantive interviews on the US-China trade war.
This is one of my favorite UA-cam channels!
Thank god RealVision uploaded a video actually filmed recently 🙏
I think they want you to pay to see recent videos.
Kenyon Scales Get a subscription and stop whining.
Great information for anyone trying to understand foreign market, and marcoeconmics. Thank you Real Vision Finance!
Marko-economics?
Piotr Kurczewski Polo-economics!
Nay, what you need to pay, I getit free. Too bad, the person I trust only speak mandarin.
Enjoyed the video.
Bring back our jobs and our money!
Tariff to 100% like India does for all imported items viewed as luxury!
stop comparing India with China.If you push India then we will ally with China and you guys will be in real trouble.
@meaturama Kanye West is going to bring 100% of Yeezy Supply manufacturing back to the United States (Wyoming). Foxconn has a long planned plant being built in Wisconsin to manufacture consumer electronics like the iPhone. A larger percentage of foreign cars (BMW, for example) are now being manufactured in the United States. Tesla is manufacturing all of it's electric vehicles in the United States. The U.S. steel, construction, and aviation businesses are generating record profits (e.g. Caterpillar, Boeing, etc). Not to mention military contractors are helping keep us safe from global threats like the Chinese Communist Party! Even apparel companies are coming back to America.
It's not $0.50 an hour. And cheap labor isn't the only point to consider when determining the supply chain of a product or company.
There's no place like America! U.S.A. !
@Huawei is a criminal organization. not what he means. He means copy India's strategy, put tariffs on luxury imports at a high level.
Great info, wonderful interview. And thank you!
Upnloaded a day before the Wuhon outbreak was announced
In China .
So if I use this guy’s data, am I using “Beigeing” data?? 🤣
LOL!
To the top with this comment good sirs and madams for all the funnies shall be its.
Thats a lot of tan data.
Amen. It's so in your face, Hahahahahahaha
2drsdan I see what you did there 🤣
Maybe millionaires in China 🇨🇳 will disappear like the plane they never found ,they sound desperate
Real vision at its best! Informative, insightful, unbiased. Love the in depth analysis of the trade negotiations so far and forward looking predictions on the possible deal. Look forward to more interviews like this!
Great interview.
CCP single party rule in China is unsustainable. The CCP under Xi Jin Ping has turned itself into a new dynasty, and anyone familial with the dynamic of Chinese political tradition going back centuries is that dynasties have a life of their own. Once a dynasty is seen to be beginning to lose its grip, the people rebel, the Mandate of Heaven is withdrawn, and the country goes into a state of flux until a new internal power emerges. This current CCP dynasty has clearly over-reached with its repressive policies in Xinjiang and Tibet, with its Belt and Road expansionist program, and with its oppressive surveillance and social credit program for the Chinese people. Hong Kong is the beginning of the unraveling.
Wow, wonderful video. Very informative! :)
This is a very balanced and revealing interview putting an other light on internal works of China`s politics and economy.
Real Vision, reasonable experts that don't talk down or tell me how to think - Bravo
If you trust the Chinese words or even the comas, you already lose the negotiations
So Americans won't trust you too , because you have Chinese name.
Cos' they're Commanists?
very interesting insight. Thank you for the clarity Mr. Miller.
Awesome perspective!!
just look at xi, that face n those eyes. truly despicable n evil.
To me, he has always looked surprisingly, even disarmingly benign, for a ruthless dictator. But he also has somewhat of a poker-face. He keeps what he's thinking to himself.
When the Economy is looked at through the lenses of Finance...
Great questions and great answers, thank you!
Bright man........well explained, had to keep listening
very informative interview
You to are not allowed to drill deep on this issue.
SUPER INFORMATIVE !!! THANK VISION !!
Incredibly accessible explanation. Thank you!
The economic model of China is very dependent on exporting/importing trading; can her model last long-term when nations are reverting back to nationalism and internal self-sufficiency? What happens to nations dependent on trade if the US decides to no longer be responsible for the protection of world trade?
You are the only one in the comments who gets it. The world economy revolves around mfging. And the US is the main country who controls mfg. Since NAFTA, the corrupt politicians at the time shipped our wealth and jobs to China for cheap labor. He is bringing it back. It's called nationism. MAGA
I think I missed that lesson. Who said that US is responsible for World Trade (between Nations).
Are you referring to the
Petrodollar or NATO or...?
China knows they cant only depend on the US that is why they have the one belt one road initiative. Therefore there is the trade war because US cant let China get any stronger.
@@drivenauthority9169 this is your fantasy. Trump has no control of whom comes back. Corptocracy rules the US...not Trump.
@@kevinlee2959 this is how I see it, too. (Google removed my thumb) (Should I be offended?)
They must want me to either go away or speak up...I can't decide. What's your guess?
A deep and informed analysis of the trade situation and the Chinese economy. Thanks.
All of your videos are awesome !!! love them and I must thank you for all of your work with great questions all the time!!!! thumbs up to Real Vision Finance!!!!!
What a brilliant analysis!!
This was an outstanding and useful interview, thank you! Teza from Sydney Australia
Judaism is far more sinister and anti European than Islam is.
Jewberg Goldstein All four schools of Islamic law for the Sunni ( Plus the Shia) teach that anyone who leaves Islam; MUST BE KILLED! This law is obeyed even TODAY where it can be enforced. Also, Islam since the seventh century from it primary text teachers that it is at war with the ENTIRE non-Muslim world until the last day! Now is there an equivalent teaching in Judaism? NO, THERE IS ABSOLUTELY NOT! Furthermore, I ask you; have you ever read the Quran? Ignorance is not a necessarily bad thing unless it is wilful, is it wilful with you Jewberg Goldstein? Kind regards, Teza from Sydney Australia
@@jewberggoldstein7112are you on glue..?....
They printed money as they wish without international transparency. .?? How are we going to trust them. ???
Outstanding content. Thanks
Very informative interview. Thanks Real Vision Finance for an excellence information.
Excellent discussion
Not “Trumps Trade War”.... it’s “America’s Trade War”.
It's not even a trade war..it's negotiating..and miniscule in the big picture...
Why is China able to help many other countries with huge loans too huge so that the countries are unable to service the loan, then China request ownership of where their loans were spent.
Well spoken Leland. You and Mike Maloney would make a great team ! I liked the questioning format Real Vision ! Well done 👍
Well done. A non partisan assessment is so refreshing.
Actual content starts at 2:27. You're welcome.
Great info here, WOW!
Very interesting. Very good analysis.
He should disclose
more about the
‘impending famine’
datapoints ⚡️💀
Please explain if that's not to rude
@@radcow
Don't you mean "not too crude"?
@@larryelliott9157 nope I'm it's rude because I asked
@@radcow
Actually I should have proof read. I meant to type rude and was simply referring to the TO vs TOO issue. Sorry I spent way too many years in proofreading as a profession.
@@larryelliott9157 lol
European luxury goods companies are in deep trouble.
No doubt...hmmm. I wonder how NYC is holding up...is it true that many are leaving NYC?
Much of the trade systems in many countries that depended on the US being a big ticket buyer and also trade route protection system are in a panic.
@Nav V Savage Comment! So True!
They can send their goods back to China coz I am sure they were made in China
Meanwhile the US has to provide $200 billion per day to keep all the banks open next day
Excellent information.
"They have to stop supporting everybody" this is advice for which economy?
His advice for China would be well heeded by the U.S.
yes it would be nice to see the bs cut out of us data as well. see john williams of shadow stats. all govts are the same.
@General Luise Martinbanger americans lie too they are just much more creative about it. but the truth is very close to showing now so it wont be long to see it. over half of corp bonds are bb now and headed lower. be careful in zombie land.
GET THIS GUY ON MAINSTREAM MEDIA!!
As it is. Thanks for the video
Interesting, but why have we not seen about this Beige Book before?
China 🇨🇳 will have one trade Bat soup with hot spices
Thanks for the updates. (Grace)
Would appreciate info on the current perspective. Thanks.
China is the practice ground for a social credit system called TECHNOCRACY. the technology for their social credit system was invented in the U.S.A. NOT CHINA. but because u.s.a laws wouldn't allow it to happen in the u.s.a at the time, (the constitution needs to be changed first) they decided to trial it in china first. Basically what they have planned for china and then the rest of the world is a brand new economic system based on energy. where everybody is given so many energy credits every fortnight or month. Money, private property, etc will cease to exist. If you read the book brave new world youll get the drift. this is real this has been planned for decades. The corporations are a cartel,act universally and they are determined that this is going to happen.
If either Comey or Brennan go to jail it would be a big load off my mind. Barr gave a talk at The Federalist the other day and if those two walk he will never live it down.
spot on
Chinese promises - just like Molotov-Ribbentrop German-Soviet Pact of 1939 ....
Molotov-Ribbentrop German-Soviet Pact of 1939 actually worked well. And sides kept their promises )
You cannot sat this about US agreements. Trump or other presidents broke them by few seconds any time they like )
How about the double accounting books one internal economy and one external economy ?
As an economist, having lived (and worked) in China for near 15 years, I actually agree with their findings, because I discussed a different take on how to run the Chinese economy as early as 2005. The Chinese "economists" have found or will find out, that sand in your eyes about the facts, does not work.The fact is, that the Chinese government has been building growth on the imbalance of trade, collecting huge foreign money. That is coming to an end. I advocated a moderate Chinese growth in the 3-5 percent range, to give Chinese consumers purchasing power a chance to adjust.
*"Chinese law"* ...... hahahahahahaha
BEETLEJUUS …… hahahaha
“US president”.... hahahahaha
Jacob Mee what relationship does your comment have to Chinese Law Ha ha ha ? Should I write; Chinese little penises....... hahahaha? No, I shouldn’t write that, because the fact that Chinese men have the smallest penises of all the races on planet Earth, has nothing to do with the laughable Chinese Law. So, in summary, Chinese Law, American president and the small penises of Chinese men, whilst amusing and sad, the subjects are not related.
Western ‘democracy’ Ha Hahaha ha ha
Umesh Sonune Umesh. Sorry but you are not my intended respondent. It was a psychological trick, . The only people who would respond to my message are those men with small penises. ......Oops. You responded.🍌🤞🏿😂
I’m Asian and I support HK and Taiwan’s independence! I love 💖 Trump!
Theres only ONE china
I agree with you on all, but Trump! Unless you like Trump, just because he is aggravating Mainland China!?
@@zixuanquek9363 You wish! Taiwan is an independent Country! And Hong Kong should have stayed the way it was! Mainland has lost its cashcow now due to its punitive policies!
Taiwan is an independent country, everything else you might hear about Taiwan is just Desi formation to generate doubt and affect their democracy.
Yes they need their freedom from the evil
When does the Beige Book commercial end and the content begin?
THANK YOU SIR
Leave it to Real Vision to get another vibrant thread going. Big smile.
The way this gentleman talks, you'd think he has some senators on speed dial!
Possibly he works for the CIA
nope, they get their advice from Huffington Post and Breitbart
This is an outstanding presentation. We all know that the Chinese economy has been decreasing for years now but this presentation is re enforcing our believe. Thank you.
The most informed man in the Orient, Peking Tom.
Maybe should worry about 75 billion daily Repo, first
Yes nobody seams to see how the USA economy is crashing to
*ouch* That squealing "tranistion effect" sound hurts my ears!
Bravo! Another reason to celebrate!
I'd like to see an update for 2020.
That dude is a genius. Hats off. Fantastic interview.
Who pays to collect all this Data? That does not come cheap unless you use Chinese Data.
Is it just me, or does anybody else think that Leland Miller looks like Don Adams from the TV show, “Get Smart”?.
How do you acquire the data. Wouldn’t be illegal under China’s laws to collect and use this data without china’s permission?
It's hard to know the real story on the Chinese economy. They keep a stiff face but you will not get the real story ever. They keep 3 sets of books you will not get the real story. You can only try. I have never invested within the borders of China. Nor would I if I were a company build there eventually when things worsen they will nationalize what is in their borders. They make a deal and then don't keep their word on that deal
The outlook/projection path hereby described for the Chinese (the two possible outcomes discussed at the end), should scare us ALL as these scenarios would also cause tremendous pain to the US I would think. Think we all are headed south; the Chinese do not see eye to eye with us so BE READY for a mud wrestling match.
How ironic, since the US has decided since about 2001 to not protect the IP of inventors, which is a big untold story for why the US has not had any meaningful real economic growth in almost 2 decades.
I worked as a director for a state owned/managed company in China. My company was a subsidiary of the largest construction company in China. I had my own secret service agent following me around, met Chairman Mao's grandson (sad situation there) and knew the guy in charge of all foreign investment in Shanghai. I don't know if there have been any other westerners in that position before. This was about 15 years ago.
2 points:
Do not trust the stock exchange figures, the data used to calculate them is often flawed or manufactured.
The banks are insolvent to the point where there are cash convoys sitting in strategic locations around the country to deal with any rumours of bank difficulties.
The US growth rate at 2%, I wonder how much of that is somewhat exaggerated?
All of it 😆
The figures are all publicly accessible, and are bit-by-bit verified by investment analysts. Any GDP measure has problems and limitations, but it's not a behind the closed door "invention" as in China. Also note that we EXPECT China to have a higher growth rate as they are still at a very low status. China's per capita GDP is behind Mexico!
What they've done to the South Pacific is sad.
@5:46 he says the largest percentage of shadow banking, whilst the picture shows the opposite. Are the colours wrongly named?
Excellent Interview....I would like to see this gentleman and Steve Bannon on the same show
Bannon is a Rat. Turned on a real patriot,
China 🇨🇳 is not going to feed all her people for free remember they are communist ,there Bible is take ,take ,take 😂😂
5% to 1% growth will feel like sliding until you're well off the runway
I think I just 'beiged' my pants.
how many of the current loans are for payments on previous loans? there is no equity growth in that cycle. so how much?
16:18 - What if he did it to make it more difficult to outsource American jobs to China?
Smells like a "sales documentary". Why are they not mentioning Chinese borrowing and lending? Without this analysis is blind..
Because borrowing and lending arw irrelevant since the central bank is government owned
Google keeps all tracks of all humans using there phone
Why does the ccp always dress like theyre ready to attend a funeral
Chine must be rooting for trump to get impeached ASAP
Take everything you hear with a grain of salt.....too many people are lying to us..... Should I trust this guy? I do not know.
i just came back to china from the US west coast (currently on VPN right now).... I would say, China's activity and energy is much much more stronger than what the US media described.... word "vitality" still suits China.
@@lazydayB2B yeah, his dead along with a truckload of secrets.
I feel like I have to fact check everything nowadays. I am with you.
@小熊维尼 you still there?
I don’t believe what you just said. Are you lying?
I absolutely love the xi tumbnail(epic)
👍👍👍 excellent work good information 👍🇺🇸👍🇺🇸👍🇺🇸👍🇺🇸