SpaceX Goes All In On The Big Freaking Rocket. Humans To Mars by 2024?
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- Опубліковано 10 жов 2017
- Elon Musk gave us an update on SpaceX’s plans to send humans to Mars, going all in on their new launch vehicle: the BFR.
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Team: Fraser Cain - @fcain / frasercain@gmail.com
Karla Thompson - @karlaii / ua-cam.com/channels/EIt.html...
Chad Weber - weber.chad@gmail.com
Chloe Cain - Instagram: @chloegwen2001
For the last couple of episodes, we’ve talked about NASA’s plans to explore deep space, with the Space Launch System and the Deep Space Gateway. That’s fine and all, but many of you wanted to know how all this would compare to what SpaceX is planning for the colonization of space.
It had been a while since we got an update from Elon Musk, but on Friday we got a big announcement from the SpaceX CEO, and it kind of makes your head spin.
At the International Astronautical Congress in Australia - the home of the newly announced Australian Space Agency, congrats Australia, you totally deserved it. What what I saying? Oh right, at the IAC, Elon Musk announced what they’ve been working on since last year’s announcement of the Interplanetary Transport Ship.
All of SpaceX’s current rocket fleet: the Falcon 9, the Falcon Heavy, the Dragon spacecraft, it’s all going to be made obsolete by their “all in” investment to build the one rocket that’ll do everything: the BFR. - Наука та технологія
![Elon Musk: Elon Musk's Vision for the Future [Entire Talk]](/img/n.gif)
I love Spacex... they keep my dreams alive. Just fantastic!
they suck, just fyi
Ever had sex with them? You might wanna change channels or actually go find some real facts on space travel; What was shown here is no better than opening the garage door and not even putting your car in reverse as far as space travel is concerned.
What you might wanna do is look at all the huge telescopoes, both on the earth and going into space; These next generation scopes are gonna let us view planets way out there; Of course the photons we view will be thousands \ millions \billions of yrs old but better than what we have currently,, These pics might be a little sexy!
Elon explained that SpaceX has close to 50% of all commercial launches in 2017. The figure is at around 65% for 2018. One can see how SpaceX will fund the BFR. Not only is SpaceX rapidly gaining market shares, but the (delivered) promise of affordable launches will drive market expansion. By building the BFR, SpaceX will exponentially drive market expansion in all grids with previously unthinkable payload sizes and weights, at unimaginable low prices.
Yup, and I'm fine if it takes SpaceX and extra decade to get this tech working. :-)
Fraser Cain, I don't see what specific tech is 'missing' to make the BFR a reality in 5 years. Would love to hear your thoughts or wait for an upcoming video on this topic. Keep up the good work!
Presumably the composite tanks (specifically qualifying them for LOX - they've only tested on cryo LN2 so far), autogenous pressurization, developing the larger Raptor engines for the production vehicle, the giant PICA heat shield (and qualifying work for that), the methalox thrusters for the BFS, and so on.
Ambient Morality, I agree there is a lot a stuff that needs to be tested, qualified, etc. But if I'm not mistaken there is nothing in the BFR that has not been already tested and proved on a smaller scale. As for the Raptor engine, Elon stated it was very comparable in size to the Merlin and that SpaceX was very confident in it's large-scale manufacturing capabilities for the Raptor. BTW, I'm referring to the BFR as the platform that replaces all Falcons... not the BFR that goes to Mars because that will require new stuff.
There simple solution for payload sizes and weights, construct them in space or even on the moon and only Russia seriously thinking about building infrastructure like that
Sorry for the delay, we had a problem with our editing computer. Things are back online, with a bunch of episodes piled up.
Bigger than anything in space? Bigger than the ISS?
Little enough to ask. Always worth waiting for, Fraser.
colinp2238
Now the new station would have to be bigger to.
It has more internal space than ISS.
Just imagine, 20 years and a lot of money, and now (in a few years) Elon could send few of BFRs just like that, park them in spokes pattern and put up a sign "vacancy". Sometimes I really like the times I live in.
As for the psychological issues... In the time of Orville and Wilbur, the idea of flying around the planet was probably seen as ludicrous. Nevertheless, international aerial flights have been ubiquitous for decades. Same will happen with rockets and space flights: it's human nature.
Yeah, I'm not that concerned about the psychology issues, just the physical hazards of space travel.
Are these physical hazards that different than those intrinsic to aerial travel?
Absolutely. The acceleration rates for the travel times he proposed will be intense. The other hazards are somewhat analogous to travel by cruise ship vs travel by submarine at the bottom of the ocean.
Ian Slatas, I haven't done any calculations but I imagine the g-forces on take-off and landing can be somewhat managed for passager comfort, even if it adds 1-2 minutes to the flight. I'm not sure I agree with your cruise ship v. submarine analogy... although I believe I get what your saying: sudden depressurization in airplane, not necessarily fatal... sudden depressurization in spaceship, very likely fatal.
Ian Slatas who cares when we become transhuman (and we will) these problems will just fade away at least until we hit another wall that is
As for the technical issues... If NASA had announced in 1973 (after Saturn V was retired) plans for a BFR, no one would have doubted the project's feasibility. How could BFR's feasibility be an issue 50 years later in 2022?
The Saturn V was completely disposable. To build a rocket that big AND have it be completely reusable? That's the mindbending part.
I agree... but I meant if NASA had announced in 1973 that the successor to the Saturn V would be just as big but also reusable, folks back then would have thought it totally logical and feasible.
why mindbending? just put some more powerful thrusters for atitude control, and some gyros. the engines and gridfins will do the rest of the business.
You think it's that easy in that times? :p
No they wouldn't. There wasn't even enough support for Nova C-8 as a followup Mars mission in the 1970s. Now imagine an even larger rocket at that time period, with reusability that nobody had even attempted yet. Wouldn't have ever happened.
U can do it elon!
NO bro the realities of what he's talking about pretty much guarantee he cannot do it ...... NOT in that timeframe.
don't see that as a reason to not try. It is money well spent keeping the USA space industry on top.
who said anything about not trying mr pointlessly jingoistic (how much Russian kit is being used in current programs? quite a lot.) .... read more carefully ... i said NOT in the stated timeframe. and making unrealistic claims publicly can damage the projects credibility and turn investors off.
Mr. Jellybean yes je can, 😎👍
Blowfeld20k Not in that timeframe, no, but there is no reason they can't be flying in six or eight years, on the Moon in ten, and on Mars in fifteen or twenty. Completely revolutionizing space travel as they go.
Well seeing as how Nasa put us on the moon in a short time frame in the 60's i definetly think he can pull it off with our current technology and abilities. Could you imagine if Nasa in the 60's had the same attitude of decades to get to the moon? When the right people put their minds to it, it can be done
as those with clue have stated NOT in the stated timeframe. Going to the moon was like a trip to the local shops .... sending men to Mars is more like circumnavigating the globe. Its orders of magnitude beyond the moon shot.
Blowfeld20k - the difference is MARS is achievable with current technology, if you are willing to take a higher radiation risk. In 1960 the US had not even had a manned suborbital spaceflight! The difference between the upper atmosphere and a manned mission to the moon in 1960 is much less than the difference between mars and the moon. We already have long term presence in space, we already understand how to land spacecraft on mars, we have the engines required.
bro ..... please. one minor accident and the whole program gets derailed. not to mention certification ... cannot just throw people in anything and launch with your fingers crossed!! Then there is the life support and crew systems that need to be more reliable than anything we have produced before. people seem to mistake skepticism of some of Musks claims with lack of faith in the overall project .... not the same thing. i have firm faith in Musks overall vision .... but this timeframe is unrealistic.
so is the idea of suborbitals to earth destinations, the gees pulled on launch mean a pretty unpleasant experience for anyone and possibly health risk for many. Even more so with hyperloop that project will never carry commercial passengers any kind of failure and everyone dies in a very spectacular fashion.
once you start dealing wth people on these systems you CANNOT just keep taking risks to push ahead.
what really concerns me is how sober investors will view this ..... am scared making claims like this will turn investors away and damage Musks credibility which would do the same to the long term project. which is what i care about.
A lot of people really need to get over the Tony Stark BS ... Musk is NOT some utterly infallible ascended being ... he's a very clever committed guy who seems genuinely focused on mankind's deep future.
if that was true, (never if 1 accident) we would not have trains, planes and automobiles. planes are thin composite materials flying at 36000ft, the engine blades have a microscopic flow of cool air being the only thing stopping the engine exploding.
if you noticed elons rapture engine has 1200 seconds running time, or 20 min and it takes 3 min for falcon 9 to reach LEO? but with no air resistance and a second stage rapture engine to land again 3 min running time. both could do 6 landings and launches. that's at present where spacex are in the testing phase? The RR Trent 1000 engine is expected to fly for 20,000 hours before its first overhaul, so they need to reach an equivalence. as long as the passengers can escape and the running time for the engine is economical there should be no reason to shut it down as unsafe.
problem was it was at any cost? luckily materials and automation have now made it feasible.
I do think a colony on mars sometime in the 2030's or 40's is more realistic. But the BFR will probably be built relatively close to schedule, and have many other uses. By relatively close I mean within 5 or so years. They are in the process of building it now, so maybe it will be on schedule I don't really know.
Niclas Dahl Aabo: Wake-up-call... it's 2021 and nowhere near the objective set by the "optimistic" Musk. His stocks have done well though - no doubt much of his hyperbole is needed to keep his stock prices up.
I love the optimism, but it took them a while to be able to land and reuse the Falcon 9 rockets. I really can't see them being able to build this new gigantic spaceship, well 6 of them, by 2024 and have them on Mars. Like with anything new in Space flight. There is likely to be faults or upsets at some point. And if you blow up one of those BFR's I suspect it won't be a case of ordering another one on Amazon Prime. It'll be months of work and money to rebuild it. But if Elon and Spacex can prove me wrong, it's a win win in my books.
I'm just so happy that I may see humans on Mars in my lifetime. I wasn't born during the Moon landings. So to witness humans stepping foot on a Planet will be an awe inspiring experience. All of human history, leading to that one pinnacle moment when a Human stands on another world....(That's assuming we didn't originally derive from Mars via Panspermia of course 😁). But I honestly hope SpaceX can exceed all expectations and do what all world governments never bothered to do. It wouldn't be a success for an American government, or any countries government in fact. It would be success for all of mankind and human scientific history.
Actually they'll need only one booster and one spaceship for all the satellites launches, ISS servicing and moon missions up till 2022. During this period, everything except Mars will be done with just one highly reusable rocket system, so that would enable them to pay for 2 ships in 2022 and 4 in 2024.
Elon said that Mars by 2024 was aspirational. That means he's dreaming and he knows it. A more likely timeline is that they will do their first test flights some time in the mid 2020s, be conducting various paid flights in cis-lunar space after that, and get to Mars, probably with NASA funding, some time in the 2030s. However long it takes, it will be glorious.
SpaceX is on the frontier of space industry and people always looking up to the top. Just like Tesla accelerate transition from combustion car to electric car, SpaceX make space cool again! and gave so much inspiration to whole industry. Colonize Mars will be one of our species greatest achievement. SpaceX can't do this alone. However, by being the industry leader, they're in position to gather a support from all sides and as long as Elon pushing forward, the whole industry will follow.
getting to space has always been fraught with risk, astronauts of olde knew that they had a fairly even chance of never making it home. sailors of olde knew the same thing too, and as they say, ships are safe at home in the harbour... but that's not what they're made for
High Overlord Snarffie Beagle no failure huh, I should cancel my flight to la today
The special thing about Musk is the way he tells us about his plans.
Hardly anyone else dares to talk about a project they haven't been able to fully foresee first.
Elon talks about his plans as he is forging them. The delays the Falcon heavy had only came to our attention because he told us about it early on.
This is not necessarily better, but it surely is more interesting ^^
A goal is not always meant to be reached, it often serves simply as something to aim at. That is how SpaceX timelines work.
Yup, whenever he mentions a plan or a deadline, I double it and add a few years, but I always anticipate that he's going to reach it. We call it "Musk time".
"A goal is not always meant to be reached..."
That's a Bruce Lee quote. Interesting juxtaposition.
Thank you for the information and good analysis.
Love your presentation, very informative !
Mars by 2024,
Snickers by 2030.
Milky Way by 2035?
India superpower by2020
@@frasercain Cardiac Arrest by 2036
Half life 3
When the big freeze occurs?
i just wanted to say that
you are awesome and
i love your videos ! :)
keep it up !
Thanks a lot, I'm glad you enjoy them.
Hi Frazer,
Extremely good, informative and exciting contributions!
Thanks for watching, I'm glad you enjoyed it.
I would love to see this happen but it sounds like a dream to me. Colour me skeptical, very skeptical, extremely skeptical, hell Thomas sounds like an optimist compared to my doubts on this. Please, please prove wrong Elon, make that massive leap forward.
Yup, I'm very skeptical, but willing to let him give it a try. :-)
Hari Q it's an aspiration a dream he literally said it was a dream if he pulls it off congrats if he does it after the timeline he set still congrats because he did it
Thanks for using metric units only. This is a science show after all. Oh, I like that you do your shows in front of live forest scenery. Science and nature coming together :)
I would love to be able to travel the world in an affordable and efficient manner. 30 minutes is less than many daily commutes to work and back. Please make it work!
What about the cost of the rocket fuel though? Is that not a significant cost driver too?
We use both, we put up imperial units on the screen. :-)
Loved the video. Just wanted to point out that I believe Elon's Earth-to-Earth transport concept was presented as more of an aspirational goal than a concrete business plan. I don't believe they are counting on Earth-to-Earth transport to contribute to their bottom line anytime in the next decade (at least transporting humans). On the other hand, there's no reason they couldn't generate revenue transporting non-human cargo around the planet in a much shorter timeframe.
Yup, I don't think anyone expects to take it seriously, but then they set themselves up for a lot of scrutiny. I would have gone with the internet from space idea, but I'm not on their marketing team.
Point-to-point in around 30 minutes to anywhere... who really needs stuff that fast to be willing to pay the huge cost of it? Air freight is, thankfully, not that common, fairly cheap and already manages anywhere-to-anywhere in about a day. BFR freight would still need to build lots of ports near potential markets compared with airports that are nearly everywhere already.
Lenard hit it on the head - why would you need to transport goods around the world in 30 minutes? The only things that need to get somewhere fast, and are willing to pay thousands and thousands per journey, are humans. Personally, I don't see it EVER being feasible - hypersonic flight can do roughly the same thing, use existing infrastructure, not use a rocket and not pull a million Gs when you take off.
Personally I think its a headline grabber. They just need to concentrate on getting the thing flying and putting satellites in orbit by the mid 2020s. 2027 would be great, amazing in fact.
Hey Fraser, I love your videos... Keep the good work going. I wanna ask what is the current positions you could find about the spaceX future mars mission and BFR test flight after the successful launch of Falcon heavy. I still wanna know, about the limitations and problems SpaceX is going to face while doing the first Mars launch in 2022. Thanks.
The next big tests come next year when they start launching the Big Falcon Spaceship, with orbital tests the year after that.
Thank you for this. I love this channel.
Thanks a lot, I'm glad you enjoyed it.
Will spaceX be the first humans on mars?
Yes.
Will they be the first private company to offer commercial tickets to mars?
Yes.
Will they do it by 2024?
I doubt it, but 2034 and you can guarantee you can get there and back with less money than a nice sports car.
IneptOrange nope, can't come back, what a waste of money
IneptOrange *Will SpaceX be the first humans on Mars?* lmao. Dude, SpaceX is a company
Golden 47 You knew what I meant. Arguement pointless.
There will delays in the schedule in SpaceX's Mars Missions, that's for sure. Probably in the end, a 10 year delay in the launch of actual manned flight to Mars. For example, in the Mars One Missions, the landing of crew 1 was originally 2024, as of 2014, when I first read about it. But now, it's scheduled for 8 years later in 2032. But a delay of a few years doesn't matter too much, as long as the missions to Mars are carried out with the required groundwork, so that they have a greater chance of success. I guess we'll just have a wait see what happens in the next decade, which will be very exciting, I hope.
IneptOrange The Falcon Heavy took 5x as much time as it planned.
And I doubt retiring the Falcon 9 and Heavy are good ideas. Satellites don’t need a rocket more powerful than the Saturn V. Even if it is cheaper per kg, it’s not going to be cheaper per launch.
I have constant back pain. would being in space help with the compression and back pain? I am surprised this isn't asked as much as How do astronauts go to the bathroom.
Sure, it would be great, but then your bones would de-calcify, so you'd have a harder time when you returned to Earth.
I can testify from personal experience that direct spinal decompression is only a temporary solution. As in space there is no vertical attraction force between any two vertebraes, the best way to simulate that is to... simply lie in bed. But that won't help you much. What would help you is strengthening your core and practicing daily movements so on your day to day activity there will be less tension on your spine. Of course all of that applies assuming you have disc problems, and not something else. In either case, I would be happy for us to trade experience about how each one of us deals with the constant pain.
Unless you've managed to stay in excellent physical health despite your back pains I suspect you wouldn't qualify for space flight. NASA astronauts have pretty stringent physical qualifications. In the Apollo days a simple cold was enough to bump an astronaut from flying.
What a strange thing to say.
I have the same problem. Reduced gravity would help, in the short term. What is really needed is more research to help people who are living with constant pain. More money to help people and less to kill people? What are the odds of that? :(
Hey Fraser, I dont know if you remember but we disagree on the plausibility of hiding dyson structures in the infrared and I found a little lecture that I think supports my case that it can be done. The title of the video is "Photonic crystals and their applications" by Speitv(I think) and the relevant info is from 6:00-8:45. I'm interested in your opinion on that.
I'm really excited about the prospect of building the BFR.
Why not be supportive and not so negative? We need more people like Elon!
I think the BFR is amazing, but I can't see it becoming a realistic mode of air travel. How many Gs does a sub orbital BFR launch pull? 4 Gs over 5 minutes? Can you see your grandmother enjoying that? And how many people would feel safe during a rocket launch as compared to a commercial air flight. The infrastructure would cost billions. I just don't see it happening. Love, love, love the system as a launch vehicle - it should be everything the shuttle was meant to be.
The Mercury Redstones pulled about 6G on launch and 10G on landing. Grandma would love that! ;-)
I could potentially see people taking medication to be out cold for that bullshit. Would that work? ;)
The Space Shuttle pulled a maximum of 3 Gs getting to orbit, therefore a suborbital flight will pull less, certainly no more.
I'm not sure it would pull less, but even 3Gs, how long is that main burn? 6, 7 minutes? I'm a 32 year old guy in decent shape, and I don't think I could handle that without puking everywhere. Try putting a toddler through it.
Hypersonic flight will be ale to do this kind of thing without the crazy G's. I just don't see the market.
@Tim Blizzard Since the trajectory is suborbital the energy needed is less so they can launch with a full tank but at a lower speed and still make it despite gravity losses. The lower speed would allow for lower Gs and with that a more enjoyable ride.
Another great video Fraser, they are getting noticeably better!
Really, REALLY exciting! Would love to see this happen while I'm still around.
Thanks for sharing.
Steve
I'd love it if SpaceX is successful, but I'm very happy they're attempting to land on mars regardless of red tape or skepticism. They just don't care about anything holding them back, they're going to innovate past their struggles, to me that's great.
Yup, every time I get a little skeptical, I watch their rockets land on their launch pads again and cut them a little slack. :-)
I'm skeptical about the mars mission. The BFR model is purely theoretical like the concept of the colony itself, and above all they havent explained anything of the ship's interiors (lower part aside) which makes me think they are still working on it.
A single mission like that would takes 2 years minimum, what about the consequences on human health? What about the radiations? What about the extremely dangerous elements on mars surface?
I want to believe in it, but man, looks very shaky.
Like I said, there are so many details that need to be thought through. That's what I think is going to keep people busy and delay the launches.
The interior would need to be different for the different uses (satellite deployment, space station cargo, refueling of other ships, people). This is probably why they didn't include it in the animation this time.
Your videos are great!!
Fraser - nice work as usual. Nobody seems to be addressing one jaw dropping-ly deal-breaking aspect of the BFR in point-to-point sub-orbital operations (long distance earth-to-earth scheduled services): The g loads experienced by passengers during ascent and descent will be health-challenging and stressful unless the self-loading cargo is very fit - not something those experienced flying the world's airlines typically face. Assuming cost and safety were equal, this alone limits the market size of potential passengers.
Another thought after watching your video... without legs or pre-existing ground "cradles," what will BFR land on during early missions to Mars and the moon?
All hail Musk. History goes to show that most good changes start with one persons. Musk has the passion and resources to really change the world and I'm looking forward to see what comes to pass.
Yup, even if things take longer, they do seem to happen. I'm looking forward to the next accomplishments.
So is the New Armstrong rocket going to able compete with the BFR.
Not in its current configuration. It's big, but not fully reusable. But I'm sure the Blue Origins folks are doing the math to see how they can compete.
New Armstrong will probably be fully reusable. New Glenn is not fully reusable, but it has enough excess performance to allow that (45mT to LEO with a reusable first stage means a lot of options are available).
Rowland No way... The Armstromg rocket will be a billion $ a copy.
BFR will be the cut-rate way to space!
It will go further, faster and cheaper than any govt ship.
BFRs will leave all the rest in the dust and make a profit doing it.
A taxable profit!!
Imagine: The first trip to mars will generate tax $ going INTO the govt!!!
@2:24 You put up BFG instead of BFR. I believe that was an animated movie. Awesome videos, Fraser!
Yeah, we were thinking of the video game DOOM, actually. :-)
It really is the BFR-mini now
Not by too much.
Yes, but not in the proposed time frame.
I have only huge problem with BFR earth transport. After the Concorde was cancelled it was discovered that it had a huge impact on the environment, manly destroying O-zone. Think about what using the BFR instead of planes would do to the environment... Then we would really need to move to mars ;)
They would be throwing a lot of carbon dioxide into the high atmosphere, but if they generate their fuel with solar power they'd be carbon neutral.
Where the pollution happens is important though. Nitrogen oxides in the upper atmosphere are much worse than at ground level (where they're by no means good). It has to do with the atmospheric pressure and how that affects the kinetics of various reactions. Not sure if these rockets would generate NOx compounds or not, but something that would need to be considered.
BFR is not an oil burner. It burns methane, possibly LNG. The stuff's quite pure, should burn making nearly pure H2O & CO2. The worst pollution should be ice crystals in the stratosphere.
That is the plan!
@@frasercain
There are alternate climate models that, unlike the models used at the Copenhagen summit, model the entire atmosphere for temperature and density, and are indicative that global warming is a redistribution, not a net rise, of thermal energy in Earth's atmosphere. Increasing temperatures in the lower atmosphere are offset by cooling and rarefaction in the trophosphere and ionosphere.
I do not know whether there is NOAA or NASA data to support or refute these models.
Hi Fraser, great video. Very crisp and concise.
You got yourself a new sub.
Sincerely
John
Thanks a lot, glad you enjoyed it.
I've said it before. I think the bfr Is way simpler to build than the falcon heavy. The reason being that you don't have to consider all the design changes in an existing system in order to handle new loads. This would be from scratch.
I'm skeptical about the timeline, but not about their ability to pull off mars landings if they can maintain funding and retain their best people. Imagine what it would feel like to be one of the people working on Falcon Heavy, now that it's considered old and busted before it even takes off. Not fun.
I'm sure they're fine with it. I'll bet the engineering problems they've had with the Falcon Heavy have contributed to their "all in" on the BFR.
I think it actually simplifies things from an engineering standpoint. Biggest issue would be getting all 31 engines working together. But it removes the hassle of dealing with side boosters, and the additional weight penalty of the mounting hardware.
BFR isn't anywhere in final design and FH is expected to launch not to far. So I don't think their best people have been "missing" the BFR train. As he said they would build ahead some rockets and then switch everything to BFR. Sounds fun that "everyone" gets to work on the new project and not maintain "legacy" system with updates.
@@jasonoutman420
It's still not the N1 . And there's been four decades of tech development since then. I'm not acutely concerned.
I will believe it when I see it work
Exactly.
Wow. It all sounds incredible cool.
All the best to SpaceX.
For space habitats, which is a better shape, cylinder or torus?
I hope they succeed but rarely in history has the initiator been the one to finally succeed.. i suspect they will eventually fail but what they devlop and the lessions they learn will be the back bone of the next wave of space explorers in 20 yrs time.
They've already dramatically changed the rocket industry, with Blue Origins following closely behind. And of course ULA is forced to change their methods too.
trelaineultima lol spacex is not going to fail it is already far ahead of the game and it's getting money like crazy
@@BustasGirl1 no things can always fail
Every kind of engine is a controlled explosion
True, but they're not carrying a nuclear warhead's amount of fuel.
true, but the pressures and stresses on a rocket are immense. Far greater than those on aircraft or cars.
pipertrip In the same way, the stresses on a aircraft are far far greater than the stresses on the legs of a person running. The stresses themselves do not dictate the level of safety. If properly designed, they will work. This is the big "if" as I see it. They have to demonstrate reliability on par with the competition, then we can know what "properly designed" really means.
I'd drink to that, Nick.
Actually no. Electric engines are not. Neither are steam engines though the boilers in steam engines have been known to explode but that is not their normal or nominal operation.
That was a 9m telescope unfolded, but presumably with BFR you could have a much larger folded array, so its maximum unfolded size could be colossal compared to what we have now.
Only just found your channel thanks to Joe Scott, it’s amazing how much things have changed in the next announcement one year later, and now we’re hearing about another “radical change” that will be “counter intuitive”.
I can’t wait to see what they produce, it will be awesome.
Question!! Would you go to mars if you were offered the ticket? Would you visit, or would you stay?
Stay 👍🏽
Stay, we gotta start somewhere if want to innovate new technologies, explore the solar system and design practical products from the backs of these new technologies. New technologies means engineers can make products, entrepreneurs then find interesting ways to introduce these side technologies into the common market on Earth, providing good jobs in new industries. THIS is why we need to challenge ourselves today. Change only comes in someone's life if they are challenged by hard problems. It breath new life into our stagnating economy. Completely worth the investment.
Are you kidding me? Get me off this rock.
On Mars everyone will be a slave - no free air there.
I would only go if I could come home. Mars would be cool to visit, but Earth is the best place in the Universe (that we know of).
8:20 "Really skeptical" Entirely justified, in my opinion. Musk seems to have promised way more than seems plausible here.
Plausible or even necessary, considering all the corners they would need to cut. I'd still bet my money on SLS.
It's true he has promised way more than what seems plausible. But that is also true with what he has promised before and that spacex now has pulled of. I think they have proved that they can make BRF happen. But there is also no chance that they will have people on Mars in 2024. However I would put money in a bet that they will have a unmanned flight to Mars in 2024 or 2026. And a moon flight before that.
Debott SLS has already lost the race as it is currently designed without reuse. All a mission has to do is be designed for two or three Facon 9 launches instead of a single SLS launch and there would be no way SLS could compete on cost.
Tehom in the aerospace engineering field you sorta need an optimistic view on things (just an indirect quote i heard)
@Lenard Segnitz Right, that's another factor. I'm sad to say I'm highly skeptical about reusability as well. At this point SpaceX has yet to prove they can actually refit their equipment on a large scale, at an affordable price, and of course safe for multiple usage. So far it's been only one rocket and one spacecraft as far as I know, and I have no idea exactly how much effort actually went into refitting those, let alone how often they would be able to do that.
Don't get me wrong I don't want to bash SpaceX for no reason, the Falcon 9 is amazing, I can't get enough of those awesome first stage landings. On the other side, Elon Musk has not even delivered half of what he promised at this point, and yet he keeps promising more and more, we must not forget that.
I love how optimistic they are in their plans, space industry and in fact the whole world needs more of that, but I personally wouldn't want to bet any of my money on someone's promise, especially if it's feasibility is still doubtful in my eyes.
It'll take some time until I'm completely convinced, but so far Space X has done an amazing job, I'll be happy to continue watching them in their efforts and I do hope they eventually succeed, despite my doubts.
One thing I don't see is how people get out of the crew compartment and down to the ground when you land on Mars or the Moon. Since the entire upper stage is one re-usable piece, the crew area is very high up. Do they deploy a water slide that spirals around the ship?
A small detail comes to mind, the reason why the Americans reached the moon but the Soviets didnt, The americans were using a 5 engine cluster in their Saturn V rocket, The Soviet equivalent, the N1 was using 30 engines and it proveed near imposible to provide stable dedundancy and sincronization when using such a large number of engines in sync.
The difference is the power of the computers we have today. A powered rocket landing would never have been possible before modern computers.
Don't tell that to the NASA haters. They think we should have been doing powered landings in the 60's.
since Elon Musk calls it the BFR, i wonder if he is a "Classic" doom Fan. :) :P
Has to be. I hope he stops at Phobos to close up the portal to hell.
LOL
The moral of the story is that if you have the money and you have the vision, you can hire a team of engineers to make your dream into CGI.
As for reality, I'm not yet convinced by the boasting of a man who has yet to put a human into orbit. The BFCGI is real enough, but for the time being at least, the BFR is just so much BS.
The timeline is pretty quick, so we'll know if it's going to work in just a few years. :-)
If the Starship architecture is made as safe as airliners, lives will still be lost. It is an inevitability that eventually something will go horribly wrong. But, this is no reason to stop flying airliners. After years of upgrades it will become safer and safer to venture into space.
great vid
Part of me has always been against private space companies. For obvious reason. But Musk and Space X seems to be doing it for the right reasons
George Nelson what obvious reasons, exactly?
avavav1232 corporations usually dont care about people, science, learning or understanding. Only $. And they do anything, including exploiting workers and destroying the environment to achieve that.
The purpose of a business is to make money, which is why corporations do care about all of that. Every piece of technology that defines modern civilization, like, say, the computer you typed that on, was invented, produced and marketed for the sole purpose of making money. What do you do in life that allows you to live without making money?
You sit on your high-horse bitching about corporations only caring about $ when you are no different. And do you wanna know how I know you only care about money? You have a PC and access to the internet which could have been sold to give money to the poor but you greedy bastard decided to keep it for your self.
Jesse Ward calm down dude, he’s not sitting on a high-horse- he’s expressing legitimate concerns about corporate exploitation
The announcements that Musk made sound pretty much non feasible in the near future to me.
Even he stated they were 'aspirational'.
i mean not really, bfr is just a much bigger falcon 9 so the concept is the same. Plus their current factory can build bfr so no new major infrastructure is needed. They also have tested a full size carbon fiber tank and fired their new raptor rocket for 1200 seconds, the future comes fast.
Only in that BFR and Falcon 9 are both rockets. Just different engines makes a rocket nearly completely different. This is different engines, different fuel, different tank structure (and an untested tank material too), autogenous pressurization, etc.
The Raptor engine they've tested was a subscale development article, not the one they'll use for BFR. They still need to develop and qualify a larger engine. The carbon fiber tank was tested only with LN2, not LOX - so not exactly a flight like environment.
Good timing for today's launch xD
Hey Fraser, question for you.
Since Space X is planning to send two manned BFRs at once on the first try, why not send a hundred-or-so-meters-long "connecting rod" into space along with them (it could be a collapsible tube that would unfold once in orbit), connect the two BFRs with it once in orbit, and then spin this assembly at a couple of rotations per minute or so to achieve 1g of artificial gravity in each BFR?
That would get rid of the weightlessness issues for the long journey...
Its NOT freaking!! Children!
Well, I don't want UA-cam freaking out at me.
I really want to see the interior of the passenger BFR upper stage, but they probably haven't done real design work on that yet.
This gave me goosebumps
Hi Fraser
Avid watcher and recent subscriber ... Your videos are very informative
I have a small question : The International Space Station was assembled in space because it was too heavy and a lot of energy would be required for lift off but The BFR’ s mass makes it heavier than that of the current International Space Station! Any idea on how this could actually work? Thanks
You just need more fuel and more powerful rockets to get you off the ground. The Starship will have more powerful engines than anything else that's every been built with immense fuel tanks. It's just a scale thing.
Cool works for me too!
The stuff about intercontinental travel via BFR could be musk's way of getting legislation through to allow rocket flights between countries (there are currently a bunch of legal hurdles even between places like the US and Australia where there are emergency procedures setup) this would be a boon to space tourism because in most places it is tricky to get to "space" and land back in the same country. Also having rocket parts land in other countries could be cheaper than international waters etc for some trajectories.
Question: (I can imagine this to be an question for an relativity exame, but I don't know the answer anymore.)
Considering the hypothetical situation of a wheel accelerating it's spinning speed in vacuum and made of material capable of enduring unlimited tension. Then, at what speed do effects of (special?) relativity show up (i.e. replacing the Newtonian mechanics)? When the wheel speed approaches c (relative to the position of the axis) or already at c/2 because the speed difference with the other side of the wheel approaches c, or something else?
I wish my county got itself together and actually got working onto this too ;-;
A small correction on your video. Elon said that the cost of launching a BFR would be small than launching a Falcon 1 not a Falcon 9.
With the upcoming launch of the Falcon Heavy and the announcement of BFR, it dawned on me that they are not too far from each other, especially when compared to the original ITS design. A Falcon 9 has 9 engines, the Falcon Heavy has 27 (18 more). This jump seems to have caused delays, but should be ready to go around Nov 2017 (next month). The next jump was either 42 engines on the ITS (15 more) or 32 engines on the BFR (5 more). So if the BFR has only 5 more engines, than the Falcon Heavy is kind of a test for the BFR, and they have spent extra time working on it. Sure the BFR has a much more fuel and uses the new Raptor engines, but beyond that, I don't think there are significant hurdles. 5 more engines is not much at all. Now that I realized this, I'm much more excited to see the Falcon Heavy fly. It's the proof of concept that they can get many more engines (18 more) off the ground, and BFR, having only 5 more engines than Falcon Heavy, won't be as far away as I first thought.
hey Fraser, could you do an episode on theoretical planets like toroidal shaped planets or just strange things that could hypothetically exist out there in the universe?
Cool works for me too 👍
Since we can use spectroscopy to detect the atmospheric composition of exoplanets, could we also detect artificial lights from cities on the night side of an exoplanet? Either by their variability as that planet rotates or by clearly technological sources such as sodium vapor street lights.
id love to visit!
I'd visit, but I'd like to come back home.
I'm partial to the "competition" but a huge SpaceX fan too. If Nasa can learn a few things from SX I'm all for it, but you must realize there will be failures, there will be losses. This is cutting edge stuff and we'd best be ready to accept everything that comes with it. Best of luck, SpaceX
IIRC Robert Zubrin (Mars Direct) already did the necessary process to produce fuel on Mars IIIRC he referred to it as 1880's tech apparently it is what they used to make lamp oil with.
Hi Fraser. Would a sleep habitat rotating at 1g do anything to mitigate the detrimental effects of weightlessness in zero gravity? I'm thinking that lying prone would evenly distribute the load and it would only need enough room inside to comfortably lie in, but would heart, bone and muscles still benefit if the astronaut isn't experiencing the load standing?
Much like an automobile manufacturer showing us their concept cars, what SpaceX ultimately produces is likely to be very different than what we saw at the announcement.
That's true. And they take longer to develop. But, we are seeing rockets land on their launch pads, so things are moving forward.
I’m working on that cosmic ray shield.
Cool, we actually did a video on some ideas including a huge shield that could go on Mars. ua-cam.com/video/pjFTke8E1jA/v-deo.html
We havn't even begun to imagine the potential uses for a Reusable Suborbital Bulk Carrier like the first stage of the BFR. The ability to build and fitout modules or craft on earth and send them in modular fashion to orbit. And construct vessels without spacewalks would be useful. Launch a 200+ ton Bigelow inflatable module. Mini Deathstar? Large Voyager 1 Probes that are more powerful and don't run out of power.
As I said, we actually don't know what it would get used for, but I feel pretty confident that the killer application will arrive and fund the development.
The BFR (Bicameral Ferrying Rocket) would replace the Space Shuttle (Finally!), enable the construction of a more viable long term space infrastructure and industry, regular missions to the Moon would be actually doable within a decade of the BFR's first certified manned flight. But the mission to Mars will be stymied by further developments and needed advancements before sending anyone to Mars. By then there will likely be a newer better rocket.
Besides we will need the practice, experience, refinements in procedure and technology, and the solid spaceborn foundation before going to the next actual planet over
Thank you for the congratulations! I’m also very proud of Australia’s first space organisation.
I'm looking forward to what happens next. I'll definitely be reporting on it. :-)
Fraser Cain. Fantastic! I’m looking forward to a video in the future.
You should do an episode on if they're hiding some kind of Doomsday asteroid or comet.
It would be really tough to hide a doomsday asteroid or comet. Pretty much all of the comets and asteroids are discovered by individuals, long before any of the space agencies know about them. That's why they have such interesting names. If you discover a comet, you get it names after you.
I hope he pulls the Big Falcon Rocket off... but i also hope the Falcon Heavy is still developed, as it could be a tech test-bed for a BFR Heavy. ..
Hi Cain, I've heard a number of people claim that the falcon 9 and the falcon heavy will be made obsolete. I don't think this is what he said.
From what I understand from Elon's presentation he intends to create a redundant system for building all the SpaceX launch platform variants. He said the new BFR will be made from as many of the same components as the falcon 9 and falcon heavy. This way the costs of all the variants are significantly reduced as this reduces the number of production lines required for different component designs. He said that the Falcon 9 and maybe the heavy will still be available as cheaper options for smaller payload launches.
Totally awesome..looks beautiful ..way to go..WOW. Sounds great to me .you done an excellent job on this..Thank you so much
No centrifugal habitat for gravity purposes though? Or can one of them be boosted separately into orbit and then attached to the crew module for interplanetary flight?
These are examples of the "details" I was talking about.
No, if you are going to Mars in a BFR, you are doing it with zero G. On the other hand, you could use the BFRs to build a much larger interplanetary vessel that could produce artificial gravity by rotation.
I presume the BFR would require some form of heat shield tiles for rentry, particulary on the delta wings? Would these all need to be refurbished/replaced for each and every rentry, leading to the enormous expense and impracticality of the thankfully retired space shuttle fleet? How are Spacex going to get around this pretty major hurdle?
Thanks for covering my Topic Fraser :-). I had the same thought that you outlined today. One Question for Q&A: Even if the plans of Musk doesnt work out, do you think his announcements would have a heavy impact on the space race of the countries (Russia, China, India..) and his private competitors in the near future?
This is great news, I hope I will also have a robotic body to see the near future :) . I have watched alot of the episodes, but i didn't see one about the supposed danger of the Earth reversing poles. Is that possible , is there evidence about such danger ? Thank you in advance.
Like this one? ua-cam.com/video/lc93IPEkWWc/v-deo.html&list=PLbJ42wpShvml6Eg22WjWAR-6QUufHFh2v
The magnetic field does change poles every couple of hundred thousand years or so, with no apparent disruption to the biosphere. No danger.
Fascinating
Could the BFR service the James Webb Telescope?
In theory? James Webb does have a docking ring attached to it, so any spacecraft that can get there can service it. The trick... is getting there.
@@frasercain Thanks for the answer!
Fraser, you are really good at being non-biased - I dig it. Here's to the future of SpaceX and the dream of a multi-planetary humanity.
Cool works for me too.
"Cool" is a great place to start.
It is actually called Big Falcon Rocket or BFR also (But Elon's name on BFR is so freaking awesome!).
Actually, the "F" stands for something else.
Fraser Cain Yeahhhhh for formal,Elon should name that F Falcon but it is okay to choose "that something else" word......
Or ITS....
Make Video on IRSO
Cool works for me, too. Even 10 years behind schedule, the SpaceX plan is beating all the current plans for manned Mars missions, and they've shown an ability to do what has been called impossible. Given the BFR works reliably quickly after development and they're bathing in money at that point, I wouldn't be surprised to see all the research and development necessary for colonization done by the late 2020s as a collaborative effort with world space agencies.
Also if the BFR works and the technology for colonization isn't quite there, they may start launching cargo and robots to get a head start. It's amazing imagining how soon we may see man walk on Mars.
I just notice if u watch at 2:00 the demonstration that they showed, all they did was just reverse the video.. watch the clouds in the background...
So exciting!
He got that title from id's games. We got to thank Carmack and Romero for getting this rocket name:-)
Yeah! I loved Doom back in the day, and the BFG was an epic gun to find. :-)