Meteorological Discussion: Significant Tornado Outbreak ahead of Hurricane Milton - October 9, 2024
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- Опубліковано 17 жов 2024
- Quick, off-the-cuff breakdown of the ongoing outbreak of tornadoes, some significant, in the central/southern Florida Peninsula ahead of Hurricane Milton's looming landfall. We'll discuss some of the reasons why we've seen numerous cyclic supercells that have been very efficient at producing tornadoes today.
Thumbnail image from NWS Miami via Greg Travers.
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Resources
Edwards and Pietrycha paper on tropical cyclone baroclinic zones: ams.confex.com...
These might be the strongest tropical tornadoes ever documented. Some of these videos of the tornadoes in Eastern Florida look like the monsters from a Dixie Alley outbreak. This is nuts.
Florida does border the big-time Dixie Alley states, after all, but still the southeast! However, an outbreak this intense? Unreal
They were not purely tropical though. This was absolutely a hybrid system with baroclinic elements. Really another 'perfect storm' to produce tornadoes
@@hgbugalou@hgbugalou I mean, just look at that SRH and how explosive + long tracked these tornadoes were. What's crazy is where they struck. Northern Florida and Central Florida are no strangers to tornadoes; many of Florida's worst outbreaks have occurred in those regions. However, this outbreak struck mostly Southeastern Florida and Southeast-Central Florida. These areas are not accustomed to tornadoes, especially not large, long-tracked wedge tornadoes.
I think the strongest was an F4 in Texas
After this video was uploaded a HUGE [probably at least 3/4 mile wide] wedge moved through Vero Beach and a drillbit cored Westlake and hit the west side of Jupiter. The Vero Beach tornado lofted debris up to 30,000 FEET into the atmosphere. The Vero Beach tornado was also accompanied by an anticyclonic AND a cyclonic satellite tornado, and had horizontal vorticies. Probably the strongest tornado from a TC since the EF scale was introduced.
Living here in Miami, it's been insane just how many supercells you can watch fire off and race north. We knew tornadoes would happen with Milton, but no one expected an April 26, 2024-type outbreak in Southern Florida.
2011* lol. Lived near Tuscaloosa, and I still get adrenaline every time I get warning alerts or hear a siren. Much love from AL, and if you were in the cluster, hey you get to say you survived a huge outbreak
@@tommeliusbthaprofit6157 oh yeah, this day came real close to 4/27/2011’s record for most tornado warnings issued in a day. It’s incredible how fast these things happen
@@tommeliusbthaprofit6157 there was also an outbreak on 4/26/2024
@@tommeliusbthaprofit6157I was in Jupiter. I feel like my adrenaline is still dumping.
As of 2130 UTC, gargantuan wedge just went right through Vero Beach; and a perfect hook echo with another cell went just west of the West Palm Beach TDWR.
Yeah, crazy stuff
One of the craziest wedges I've seen ever in Florida.
Thanks dude. Hearing of multiple fatalities now in fort pierce. Ugh. Florida also broke a state record for tornado warnings issued and it’s #2 on record behind 4.27 for warnings in single day
Yeah, just crazy…what a day
Thank you for the clarification. I live near where the Wellington tornado tore through and it's a bit of a relief after a terrifying day gaining a grasp on the 'how' of it all happened.
Super cool! Wasn’t expecting this breakdown. I definitely have a number of ideas as to why this setup was so potent, excited to see if I was correct. I imagine the key difference has been thermodynamics and deep layer shear which are usually lacking in tropical setups. Thanks Trey!
Thermodynamics are about as good as it gets for TC tornado setups!
Thanks for getting this out! I’ve been watching Ryan Hall’s stream and, for a while, it just seemed like back to back tornado warnings being issued.
It's been like that since like 1pm. I was watching Max velocity and it was literally a warning every 2 minutes
Real time Breakdown is amazing
Love this
Thank you Trey! You know we're all rabid for information right now and you didn't disappoint. 👏🥇
Thank you! Certainly not as intricate as a normal breakdown but I wanted to at least get something out since I’ve been getting a lot of questions about the setup.
Yeah but you still showed us all of the soundings. We're spoiled. I can look them up on my own, but understanding them without you is another thing. That hodograph was a whole circle!!! 😱 I've never seen that before.
@@sharessehughes2978 Those hodographs were ridiculous!
Would love a video on baroclinic zones someday btw! That’s one concept I still don’t fully understand.
Holy crap Trey that was quick, thank you brother!😊
Certainly not as intricate as a normal breakdown, but I wanted to get something out quickly, as I’ve already had a lot of questions about it.
Fantastic, Trey! JUST got back up and running. Significant damage (water inundation into three of our bedrooms here) in the Clearwater area. Internet came back at 5:00am this morning. This was a VERY wild ride for sure! Take cre and thank you for ALL you do!!!
Thank you, Tal! I’m sorry to hear you sustained some damage…hopefully the clean-up process is a smooth one for you.
Great video Trey 👍, Milton has just been impressive the past few days and now he gives a prolific tornado outbreak today
Thank you! Milton will no doubt be studied for decades to come
I enjoyed this very timely analysis. I can't remember a TC that was such a prolific tornado producer. Good job!
Thank you! Milton will certainly go down as one of the more prolific tornado producers in quite some time
Was absolutely incredible. Very rare amount of tornadoes throughout Florida. Will probably be a study case going forward.
This is just sad. Ofc tornadoes in some form almost always accompany strong TS/Hurricanes but having a widespread and dense volley of strong-violent ones on top of everything else is just awful. Worst part is (as I'm sure is usual) this is affecting nonevacuated areas from the direct impact/surge, brutal day for Florida.
This was the craziest hurricane tornado outbreak footage I've seen. Many of the videos looked like a tornado chase in Oklahoma. I hope all those affected get the help they need quickly 🙏
Yesterday with the amount of tornadoes especially strong ones was crazy!! Hope everyone is ok
This ultimately may be the largest tornado outbreak in Florida's history. I've never seen any TC produce so many strong to perhaps violent tornadoes like Milton did yesterday
Thank you as always trey. Definitely been interesting to see from a meteorological perspective
Delray beach here and i have never seen this in my life in 37 years lf living here.
Yeah, Milton is definitely one for the record books
Thanks for the real-time breakdown!
Thanks for another great video I was surprised checking in on flordia and seeing so many tornado warnings at once thanks for helping us learn even more! Appreciate all your work!
Thank you!
I'm not gonna say I knew these tors would be this prolific but I wasnt surprised to see the 10% hatched after I saw some of the supercells w likely long track tornadic waterspouts off the SW Florida coast the night before. The fact that Milton was picking up extra tropical components and developing a warm sector/cold front w that main spiral band really upped the instability, and the shear was gonna be in place either way, all coming together to create a tornado outbreak that was a bit synopticly different than most tropical systems.
Love these timely dives
This has to be one of the most primed environments I have ever seen. Only Beryl and Ivan I think for me had the even better set ups but the shear NUMBER of violent and large May plains level tornadoes and PDS tornadoes was shocking. So many wedge tornadoes and likely a good number of EF2/EF3 tornadoes.
Like this was insane and it's still going. We likely have seen 50+ tornadoes today......will take a while before we know the final numbers. ALso I did say 24 hrs....well...from this video going up that landfall would be 7pm.
Trey, BTW.....which hurricane is your personal favorite? Honestly......this one overtook Wilma for me after that incredible 2nd Cat 5 resurgence.
@@MightyMuffins Oh, trust me this is as best as a thermodynamic environment for tropical outbreaks we will get
We haven't seen a magnitude of this outbreak in Florida since probably the 2007 Groundhog Day tornado outbreak
wedges just everywhere in florida, and consistent cyclic supercells continue to drop strong tornadoes
I don't think I've seen wedges like that in Central FL at all, just so UNUSUAL.
MLCAPE over 2,000
0-1km SRH 300+
effective shear over 60 kts
3CAPE over 110+
Undoubtedly primed
This is one of the best videos I’ve ever seen / I cannot imagine a worst case scenario for the state of Florida // the state is still recovering from Helene, Ian, and I still think the panhandle is recovering from hurricane Michael /thanks
Thank you! Yeah, Florida has definitely been hit hard in recent years. The timing of Milton was very unfortunate right on the heels of Helene.
Do you plan on doing any further videos on this outbreak?
Might do a full video detailing the entire hurricane soon
Your videos are always great / I know you have discussed this before, but I found it interesting with the term “wind-shear” / this was tearing up the southwestern & southern part of the hurricane & at the same time the shear was making the super cells, which were also part of Milton, to become stronger / amazing how something as ferocious as a hurricane does not like shear and super cells live off it
Thank you! So the shear that caused the supercells and the shear that destroyed the hurricane are of different causes. The shear that destroyed the hurricane was from the trough that was digging down into the southeast US, whereas the shear that created the tornadic supercells was from the hurricane itself. The atmospheric winds really strengthen right ahead of the hurricane, which is why tornadoes are favored there.
The Weather Channel is reporting that there were 125 tornado warnings and 38 tornadoes. That’s insane.
It was impressive how many LP storms there were with excellent views of the tornadoes.
Wow This is crazy The Main Event Hurricane Milton🌀 didn't make Landfall and the Tornados🌪️ are happening 👀
Pulled up some free radar online earlier today, there were like 15 tornado warnings, almost all along the same outer rain band, turning to velocity there were just tons of couplets, it was crazy to see. Never seen so many warnings in such a small area.
Around 6 minutes in when you're talking about the paper on baroclinic zones ahead of tropical cyclones, you say that's a subject for a different video. If you make such a video, I know I personally would be excited to watch it! 👀
I might offend some people in the comments?
but it's kinda a blessing in disguise for those Tornadoes that Milton spawned to be visible
bcuz usually Tornadoes that spawns from Tropical Cyclones are usually rain wrapped making them hard to see which rain wrapped Tornadoes is even more dangerous and deadly than the Tornadoes that are usually visible bcuz you can't see them until it's too late or until they're right up on your back porch or right up on you
Do you think the survey teams will be able to accurately determine the the scale Efratings on some of these, since presumably the hurricane force winds will blow the debris around, and flooding could wash away or otherwise alter debris patterns in novel ways?
I think they’ll be able to discern what’s tornado damage and what’s not, especially with the storm weakening as it moves into the eastern portion of the state, where most of the tornadoes occurred.
It'll be a while before they can even get to it I reckon. What do you think the odds are they retire the name?
Wow, dropping it while it's ongoing
SRH 0-1km is over 310+ occasionally, 0-6km shear over 40 kts
MLCAPE over 2,000 creating lots of low level instability
Very much primed for strong tornadoes..
It's one thing to get a loaded gun set up in the state of Florida. It's another thing to get a loaded gun setup with a TC AND in Southeastern and Southernmost Central Florida, ESPECIALLY along the beach
My mom is visiting my Grandpa in Vero Beach and I recall telling her on Tuesday: "I bet you're going to get some possible tornadoes on Wednesday before the hurricane." My thinking was: typically the outer bands are the major tornado threat, and here we also have the strong westerlies aloft while the lower level winds from the cyclone will be from the south. Furthermore, the introduction of that westerly shear is going to drive in drier air from the southwest, allowing for more diurnal heating as this was looking to make landfall as a 'half-i-cane', with the convection concentrated on the north side. Wednesday morning I looked at the sounding and saw the 2,000J/kg CAPE and a beautifully curved hodograph... it looked like a plains setup. Yikes! The Vero Beach tornado would pass just a mile to their east. An earlier tornado along I95 to their west, 2 miles away. They luckily escaped any damage or harm, but it was a quite harrowing experience! 🙏🏼
Great analysis! Glad your folks made it out ok!
@Convective Chronicles, When looking at an observed sounding for tornado potential in a tropical cyclone setup. How can you tell the difference from an observed sounding contaminated by convection, or if the observed sounding is just saturated?
Usually, NWS offices will not release soundings when there's convection very close by, so most of the time, the saturated nature of the profile will be accurate.
Thanks, Trey :)
Probably the biggest hurricane driven tornado outbreak of all time
Ivan still holds the record, but this could challenge the single-day record
Yikes, yesterday was nuts
Fascinating event Trey. I’ve always wondered, Is there a difference between tropical cyclones and “closed low” mid latitude cyclones like the ones that traverse the central United States? Of course other than the origin and size of the cyclone. If a hurricane were theoretically able to move into the central United States from the west and moved east across the US and somehow maintained its strength despite there being no warm water for fuel, and then had the opportunity to draw cold air from the north and draw warm moist air from the south, could there be a theoretical mega tornado in the left exit region of this “land-cane”?
Yes, there's one major difference between hurricanes and midlatitude cyclones: hurricanes are warm-core, meaning they consist of warm air at their center, while midlatitude cyclones are cold-core, having cold air at their center. As far as tornado potential, any hurricane can act similar to a surface low, with tornadoes favored on the east/northeast side of the low center...the tornadoes wouldn't necessarily always be super intense (that would depend on a number of other factors), but there would likely be tornadoes in the northeast quadrant.
Watched it all unfold live, that anticyclonic twin...amazing...
Im curious to know what the weather service classifies those wedge tornados as.
Looks like we’ve seen a few EF3s; the 70-mile-long tornado was rated EF1
Thank you. 🙏 i like hearing why so of this ever happens again ill know.
3 Ef3s so far and one was 71 mile track length. Gotta be worse Florida outbreak since 98
You mentioned 1500 jpk and later 100jpk but neither of those are really that high for violent tornados. I feel like I'm not understanding something.
Those values are very high in tropical cyclone environments. According to Edwards 2010, typical MLCAPE values in tropical cyclone tornado environments usually fall in the 300-900 mb range and maxes out just over 1100 j/kg. So 1500 j/kg is abnormally high for tropical cyclone tornado environments. Couple that with the intense low-level shear in place and you get a significant tornado outbreak.
@@ConvectiveChronicles huh. That's very interesting. Thanks for taking time to teach me something new. Do you think the typical higher levels of humidity play a factor? 🤔
Yes; usually the atmosphere is quite saturated ahead of tropical cyclones, leading to a lot of cloud cover and fairly limited lapse rates (decrease in temp with height). This often yields less robust updrafts. That wasn’t the case with Milton.
@@ConvectiveChronicles fascinating. Thank you!!! ❤️
I was following the velocities while this was going on. It looked like Oklahoma. Just incredible
Not uncommon especially in the summer and early fall to have that high instability. What made today different like you said was the wind shear and the dry air aloft.
That is why Florida really doesn’t get many tornadoes in the summer is because lack of wind shear and dry air aloft.
While moderate to high instability isn't uncommon in the summer/early fall, instability tends to be muted ahead of tropical cyclones. The instability ahead of Milton was abnormally high for a tropical cyclone environment, which made the difference.
You should livestream coverage of hurricanes and tornados outbreaks if you find the time and not chasing
I’ve thought about it, but the issue is I wouldn’t be able to do any at all from April to June, which is when coverage would be most useful. Maybe I’ll do a couple at some point during the offseason.
5:50 hello trey! how to spot a diferential heating boundary in a surface map?
Hello! Just look for a temperature gradient across a consistent area (often it’ll be accompanied by a wind shift or moisture gradient).
@@ConvectiveChronicles thanks!
Hey brother did you see the CC Drop from all the damn birds before the I wall hit. There was like no rain, lighting just birds lol. Poor little guys went for the ride of there lives. Even feel by the hundreds maybe thousands on a cruise ship. Still alive but mortified.
Yeah, that was pretty cool. I’ve seen that before in hurricanes; it’s a pretty neat phenomenon but I feel for the birds!
@@ConvectiveChronicles oh I feel bad for those little guys they literally past out on the deck of the ship 😂. But from what I heard this was the largest CC Drop on record for this kind of event
@@travisrock1640 I will say I haven't seen the CC drop take up the entire eye like it did this time.
I'm part of it, still going on watching this vid in my safe space
Could have been a moderate risk
Yeah, it’s always tough to pull the trigger on those in tropical setups because the thermos are often iffy.
@@ConvectiveChronicles At least on Ryan Hall's stream they just had one injury report so far, so at least there's that! Absolutely incredible set of circumstances today!
@@ConvectiveChronicles but you know Trey, your analysis spoils us because when you lay it all out it seems like it should've been an obvious thing!
Do you think the terrain is also a factor? It being so flat in Florida.
I don’t think it played directly into the nature of these supercells. But it definitely gave folks some good, unobstructed views.
Florida is no stranger to tornadoes or supercells. However, rarely, and I mean RARELY, have we seen tornadoes this large and violent hit the state, let alone in a large-scale outbreak like this one. Only time will tell, but I would not be surprised if this outbreak winds up surpassing the 98 and 2007 outbreaks, which are considered the worst two tornado outbreaks to occur in the state of Florida in the modern era.
Will be remembered as "the day of the tornadoes" lol
In the circles I am in, climatologists and meteorologists are waiting till next year to see if this is a new pattern. We are hoping this was novel and not a sign that climate change is going to make these storms a more regular occurrence.
Im not dying to some spawns by a mf named Milton
Have you ever been a tv meteorologist
No
This is probably the craziest outbreak in FL since 98'!
Night of the tornadoes lol
Hurricane MILTON 💜 garble fon marsupial 🥸😭