Is the Kaspa power Law dead? (or Blow Off top?)

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  • Опубліковано 2 гру 2024

КОМЕНТАРІ • 150

  • @DarkForest222
    @DarkForest222 12 днів тому +23

    I think kaspa will come back to normal power law. What happened can be manipulators or Miners or combination of both but still power law not easy thing to break. We good. Thank you for a video Mikko👍 Great stuff as usual 🫡

  • @ishtyleretienne36
    @ishtyleretienne36 12 днів тому +40

    Mom wake up! Plan K is back!!

    • @JoshuaFernandes
      @JoshuaFernandes 12 днів тому

      Lol my mom is sleeping right next to me rn😂❤

  • @theprestonpoet
    @theprestonpoet 12 днів тому +15

    He's back!❤

  • @johnny2156
    @johnny2156 12 днів тому +7

    I’m going to make 10.000 YT channels, just so I can like this video. Glad you are back, you literally are the best! Hope your videos will be seen by many potential new investors!

  • @genxzero9478
    @genxzero9478 12 днів тому +13

    Feeling much better now...thanks!

  • @M3LTUP
    @M3LTUP 12 днів тому +14

    BTC is making new ATH every day. I would be afraid to be buying BTC at the top. KAS price has not pumped in months. I personally think KAS is the one to buy right now.

  • @emilpersson8340
    @emilpersson8340 12 днів тому +10

    plan K is just way to good at this

  • @kainoslyfe
    @kainoslyfe 12 днів тому +9

    Appreciate the content as always brother ✊

  • @loquaciousjd
    @loquaciousjd 12 днів тому +2

    Great alpha. It’s no secret that you are a highly regarded voice in this space. Thank you.

  • @rennerbike5022
    @rennerbike5022 12 днів тому +4

    Compared to meme coins its possible to hold Kaspa longer and sell closer to the top without the risk of disappearence. I will transfer early meme coin gains into Kaspa, because Kaspa will get parabolic in Q3/4 if we get a second peak and when, apart from binance and coinbase listing, 80% of the tech they are talking about (like smart contracts) is being implemented. In this late phase of the bull run maybe more investors think the same and prefer to make a safe 2-3x on part of their already 20 or 100X low cap gains. This could shoot Kaspa to the moon. To me this is one reason why Kaspa is not being listed yet and maybe artificially held back before breaking out.

  • @leojswdl
    @leojswdl 12 днів тому +4

    Thank you very much 👍🏻

  • @Computercapi
    @Computercapi 12 днів тому +7

    Great stuff, bro

  • @bubblepaxi
    @bubblepaxi 12 днів тому +3

    best KASPA content!!!

  • @ChillYourMind
    @ChillYourMind 12 днів тому

    How do we get the btc power law indicator? ty

    • @KK-----
      @KK----- 5 днів тому

      Plan k is the btc power law indicator

  • @ishtyleretienne36
    @ishtyleretienne36 12 днів тому +2

    This is really interesting analysis but in the case of the third scenario (where the power law has shifted ~30% to the downside), wouldn't that mean that any future changes that affect miner profitability to the up or downside would change the powerlaw band?
    So for instance, when the 10bps comes the power should come up like you said but when smart contracts come in the summer then we should expect the power law to come back down?
    I just want to make sure I understand that theory fully.
    Great content as usual!

  • @davidmacadam6073
    @davidmacadam6073 12 днів тому +2

    Dude, you are one smart guy!! Love your content!

  • @TheTesla84
    @TheTesla84 12 днів тому +1

    Excellent analysis! Especially the part on miner profitability post KRC 20. That begs the question- based on the same argument, will we see similar behavior by the miners after SCs, KII projects and DEXs get implemented?

  • @Umatic10
    @Umatic10 12 днів тому

    Welcome back awesome point of view as always! i believe since kaspa is kaspa it will break and stay above the powerlaw bands just in the bullrun like it did downwards and then stabilize at some point inside in the bear market!

  • @cryovu
    @cryovu 12 днів тому +1

    I think the power law will hold. Number of transactions went up strongly, but not the number of wallets as you would expect, so not many new people went into our ecosystem. Meaning, not many kaspa buyers so the miners sold and could lower the price before the hashrate went up. It found a new bottom. In the future, with smart contracts and 10 bps, I'm pretty sure there will be a lot of new people entering the kaspa ecosystem. So with higher miner profitability (from transactions), there will be more demand. Miners selling but people buying. The sell pressure isn't that much from miners (about 6.739.200 Kaspa, around 1M selling pressure at current prices) and about 1M in transactions, so 200K from that. Easy to overcome with more buyers. Also remember hashrate will increase, pressuring the miners and the miner rewards reduce every month. I have the feeling this is more of a "one off" deviation. Pretty sure we will follow the normal power law again.

  • @KarlLarsen
    @KarlLarsen 12 днів тому +1

    Thank you for making this content for us today! As always! It’s amazing!

  • @DerAlbi
    @DerAlbi 12 днів тому +1

    Fit "Price / Some-Miner-Revenue-EMA" to a power-law and see if this solves the discontinuity you spoke about.

  • @priincxsh9938
    @priincxsh9938 12 днів тому +11

    Due to the manipulation of price by exchanges, I believe is why it has broken the power law, maybe the supply shock will put it above the power law 🚀🤓

    • @J0lker
      @J0lker 11 днів тому +1

      agreed- i think because of fair launch big exchanges need to accumulate larger wallets to avoid buying on regular prices. And to do it they manipulate the price and buy from large mining companies away from exchanges.

    • @priincxsh9938
      @priincxsh9938 11 днів тому

      @ kas members always have the upper hand when it comes to rational information, like for us if its not pumping, something technical is the issue, as in the case of its competitors in pos who have to worry about being dumped on, we on the other hand understand the value of this, insider information only confirms the true value of this project

    • @TontoBongRonto
      @TontoBongRonto 10 днів тому

      @@priincxsh9938 Miners are dumping on you everyday

  • @joebloggs339
    @joebloggs339 12 днів тому +1

    I would predict that the slope of the line on a log-log chart would remain more or less constant until the capabilities/characteristics of the project were modified, e.g. 1bps to 10 bps, completely new use for the project, at which time there would be an inflection point with a new slope, probably steeper, bc you are now dealing with a 'different animal.'

  • @thandomthembu2099
    @thandomthembu2099 12 днів тому +5

    A guy called Ben Cowen on UA-cam said models are useful until they don’t work anymore same story to the power law …this doesn’t mean kaspa is dead only time will tell us if this project will succeed

    • @SignalLost730
      @SignalLost730 12 днів тому +1

      ben cowen is a terrible person to follow. followed him last bull run and he was suggesting non-stop that we could be in a 'lengthening cycle'. a ton of his followers held as everything crashed because of him. do not listen to that guy whatsoever.

    • @thandomthembu2099
      @thandomthembu2099 12 днів тому +1

      @ I also experienced the same thing watching his content but…end of the day we are responsible for our own investing decisions

    • @EazyMF-E
      @EazyMF-E 12 днів тому

      @@SignalLost730 He has been 100% in predictions for the last 2 years. Look at BTC.D, this is the true indicator of ALT season. Kaspa is still bleeding against BTC at the moment.

  • @tkhayes83
    @tkhayes83 12 днів тому

    Thanks for this, well said, lots of good points and ideas to explain whats been happening. I can see how you come to this conculsion. Im all for the new power bands. Seems the most logical way forward. Cheers

  • @daimonfreitas7673
    @daimonfreitas7673 12 днів тому +2

    Manipulation. Just to separate the betas from the chand before the big price discovery move. Remember my words.

  • @markgautier1460
    @markgautier1460 12 днів тому +1

    I think it’s a little early to be thinking of a power law. Maybe wait until the smart contracts are finished and we get the 10 BPS ect….I maybe off base but it’s hard to encase an algorithm shell around something that is evolving. Not saying power law is bad. I think recent price action is actually good. It means if it can deviate beneath the power law during bad times then it should deviate above it during good times…..like in alt season. Still love the analysis though

  • @neilstewart5060
    @neilstewart5060 12 днів тому

    Would prefer that the power law be re-established in some form going forward. Not sure which one (original or adjusted) as we may also have a mini blow off top at some stage this cycle before returning to ranging within the band structures.

  • @5apere_4ude
    @5apere_4ude 10 днів тому

    But that means that the more txs fees we have the lower the power law might shift, right?
    That also means that the 10 BPS hard fork could shift it back up since it reduces fees significantly. But after that, the more txs we have the more it would shift downwards again.

  • @marksvinicius73
    @marksvinicius73 12 днів тому +1

    The Bitcoin power law has occasionally failed over time, leading to adjustments in calculations. With more historical data, estimations become increasingly accurate. Kaspa, however, is still in its early stages of historical data, remaining in the discovery phase

  • @dsr_lifelong
    @dsr_lifelong 12 днів тому +1

    Great analysis! KRC-20 has increased the fees and mining profitability. That is why we had a significant selloff. The number of new mints will go down and the mining rewards will go down too. Once 10mbps is live, more miners will be able to find blocks. That will distribute rewards better. Mining profitability will go down. Hence, selloffs will be reduced. That will help kaspa skyrocket! This will happen until smart contracts are launched. Once the SCs are launched then fees will go up again and miners will be profitable again. That might trigger selloffs. We might see anther readjustment in power law after that. After that, due to reduced mining rewards, selloffs will come down. What do you think?

    • @TontoBongRonto
      @TontoBongRonto 10 днів тому

      This is incorrect. The reward stays them same, spread over more blocks. Mining profitability stays the same at 10 BPS. Without adoption and transactions. Kaspa will die sadly, we will see what happen

  • @RayAlmero
    @RayAlmero 11 днів тому +111

    Thanks to You Mate, I have realistic expectations for this bullrun. Got into crypto early this year and I have truly learned a lot from you about cycles, crypto and markets as a whole. Now I know that all assets/markets are heavily tied to eachother and global economy has very high impact on Crypto. Thats why I am very cautious about when traditional markets top and how this affects Bitcoin and altcoins. If i havent discovered your channel I would have blindly holding instead of engaging the market........ I have managed to grow a nest egg of around 2.3Bitcoin to a decent 24Bitcoin. in the space of a few months... I'm especially grateful to Seren Wintersun’s, whose deep expertise and traditional trading acumen have been invaluable in this challenging, ever-evolving financial landscape.

    • @RayAlmero
      @RayAlmero 11 днів тому

      SHE IS ON TELE GRAM.

    • @RayAlmero
      @RayAlmero 11 днів тому

      @Serenwintersun

    • @79AdventureBaby
      @79AdventureBaby 11 днів тому

      In a field as rapidly evolving as cryptocurrency, staying updated is crucial. Seren’s continual research and adaptation to the latest market changes have been instrumental in helping me make informed decisions.

    • @hollycarter3594
      @hollycarter3594 11 днів тому

      Always backup your trading with a good strategy.

    • @2Luisalvarado
      @2Luisalvarado 11 днів тому

      Nice, I was just hoding before I found Wintersun. In my opinion she is the very best out there.

  • @KarlLarsen
    @KarlLarsen 10 днів тому

    Question: of course you’re my favorite UA-camr. However, I have 100% of my money in Kaspa now. Do you have 100% of your money in Kaspa? Or do you own just a little bit of bitcoin such as 10% or less? I mean just in case.

  • @hugobarros647
    @hugobarros647 12 днів тому

    So good points, amazing yellow lines 😅

  • @millionairemccoy218
    @millionairemccoy218 12 днів тому +9

    Id rather see $2.50 already lol

  • @ilswa
    @ilswa 12 днів тому +1

    Stonks

  • @dmitrikivisikk7868
    @dmitrikivisikk7868 12 днів тому

    A well timed remedy..

  • @Chris-rs8ds
    @Chris-rs8ds 5 днів тому

    When the 10 bps is released, what will happen to the block reward? Will it be divided by 10?

  • @agussukendar249
    @agussukendar249 12 днів тому

    Thank you plan k.
    I have a question.
    Most of my portfolio is in kaspa. I am very bullish on kaspa. But I have a wild worry that is a bit disturbing. Kaspa is an unfinished project. There will be a lot of development ahead. What would happen if (in my wild imagination) a black swan or fource major happened, say all the core developers of kaspa (the inventors and other vital core people) died in a plane crash. What would happen to kaspa at this stage? Would anyone else around the world be able to continue the project as dedicated as the core developers? Given that they are rare people who have the talent and dedication to this project. I am quite worried. But of course I hope that never happens. Thanks for the feedback.

  • @vashstampede4878
    @vashstampede4878 12 днів тому +1

    Plank K dropped a new vid? 👍

  • @yums2526
    @yums2526 3 дні тому

    It’s being manipulated to keep price down. Why? To keep majority off the table. KAS the next big thing. Don’t dade this and HODL.

  • @russellsmith5546
    @russellsmith5546 12 днів тому

    I dont think the model is broken in the long term. We had a multitude of pressures in the last few months. War in Isreal/Gaza and the main figures of kaspa being from that region made people nervous.
    I think the deviation off the power law lends more credence to the idea of downward manipulation by exchange wallets to acquire more before listings.
    Also leading into a controversial election that would become a tipping point for the crypto industry, people stuck with cash positions or less volatile assets. Then after election Bitcoin became a black hole sucking up billions of liquidity as everyone races to get in.
    I think these factors created a perfect storm for kaspa downward price action.
    In the mid term I believe Kaspa will rise back into the range and follow more closely long term.
    Just my two cents 😊

  • @RichieRichIIII
    @RichieRichIIII 12 днів тому +1

    The power law appears to follow a better path than Bitcoin for the future. ⬆️

  • @officialdanplants
    @officialdanplants 11 днів тому

    Power law has broken, I think we’ll see it peak out at $10-$15 a coin in the upcoming bull run.

  • @johnmacedo598
    @johnmacedo598 12 днів тому

    How about the War is Israel and the fact that the project was created there? Does it affect it?
    Do we have in-chain metrics like in BTC so we see who sold?

  • @Eisberg_
    @Eisberg_ 12 днів тому +3

    how can we expect kaspa following tha power law, when the price is manipulated? there whre a massive volume spike with a minor price impact.

    • @user-kv2lc8zo7u
      @user-kv2lc8zo7u 12 днів тому +1

      What? Who manipulates the price and how?

    • @Kaspa_dreams
      @Kaspa_dreams 12 днів тому

      Mexc was shorting it​@@user-kv2lc8zo7u

    • @M3LTUP
      @M3LTUP 12 днів тому

      I suspect miners have been steady mining and dumping KAS to pay their bills. This will go on until KAS mining costs rise.

    • @Eisberg_
      @Eisberg_ 12 днів тому

      @@user-kv2lc8zo7u exchanges and whales , never heard of that?

    • @Eisberg_
      @Eisberg_ 12 днів тому

      @@user-kv2lc8zo7u exchanges and market makers can create whatever price scenario they want, they create sell or buy pressure, to accumulate, sell higher or kick leverage trades out the game.

  • @johnbai4715
    @johnbai4715 12 днів тому

    Only power law that matters is "Money is Power" ... Which was proven with the recent price action/lack of listings on Kaspa

  • @TalenJourdan
    @TalenJourdan 12 днів тому

    Yes power law is broken. Don’t create a new model just to fit a new power law. Otherwise there’s no point in a power law. Cmon dude

  • @ereunds
    @ereunds 5 днів тому

    I'm really sorry man, some ignorant Kaspians really are out to get a piece of you, they seem to think Power Law is to blame for poor price performance, or worse, they want to Kas to go down to prove... something...

  • @Matt-ov6xw
    @Matt-ov6xw 12 днів тому

    Will transaction fees be enough to incentivize enough miners to secure the network once kas reaches max supply in 2026?

  • @Yuribrb
    @Yuribrb 12 днів тому

    Finally a new video, thought you was dead

  • @EnzoTkKO
    @EnzoTkKO 12 днів тому

    Hate to say it but I no longer accept the KAS power law. Thank you for the video!

  • @handsup8791
    @handsup8791 12 днів тому

    The cruel manipulation of MEXC cannot be a form elastic demand&supply

  • @ishtyleretienne36
    @ishtyleretienne36 12 днів тому

    Also, you should make shorts man. We need to get you to 10k at least brother.

  • @muhammadrasool-w5i
    @muhammadrasool-w5i 5 днів тому

    Why does it follow the power law in the first place

  • @Staterstacker
    @Staterstacker 12 днів тому +1

    Kaspa still has the most bullish chart in crypto history

  • @RalfBergner
    @RalfBergner 12 днів тому

    I will buy more Kaspa and Nacho with every salary

  • @sw3559
    @sw3559 12 днів тому

    The emission schedules are nothing alike. Kaspa has rapid emissions, Bitcoin has slow emissions. This has to be taken inti account. 3B coins will be minted in 2025.

    • @Timur_575
      @Timur_575 12 днів тому

      3b coins will not be mined in a year 😄😄🖐 .they will be mined only until 2038, they cannot be mined quickly 😉😄! just like bitcoin cannot be mined in a year the remaining million coins! only until 2140😉

    • @sw3559
      @sw3559 9 днів тому

      Yes. 3B will be printed in 2025. I didnt say every year. I understand emissions. Reread my previous reply , I said "in 2025".

  • @Moonguy69r68
    @Moonguy69r68 12 днів тому

    So, basically TA is pretty much useless, could be broken, could not be broken, could be a "reset", all possibilities we could have postulated without any TA. 🤷‍♂️

  • @SpaceCredits
    @SpaceCredits 12 днів тому

    You need a summary / tldr section and time stamped

  • @acmlsrtvxacmlsrtvx3059
    @acmlsrtvxacmlsrtvx3059 12 днів тому

    Patents " is required

  • @marksvinicius73
    @marksvinicius73 12 днів тому

    Kaspa will liekly behave like an altcoin, requiring a remodeling of the power law as it was in the past with Bitcoin

  • @mposssible7726
    @mposssible7726 12 днів тому

    Price manipulation to grab at lows

    • @billyjean311275
      @billyjean311275 12 днів тому

      That's a fake invented theory with no proof. People just don't buy kaspa. Law of offer and demand that's all. Among my friends nobody buy Kas they prefer memes or other coins in A I just accept it

  • @rowdiehowie
    @rowdiehowie 12 днів тому +12

    Nice content. To me, trading the forex and crypto market is way better than any online investment 💯

    • @Mohed-u5o
      @Mohed-u5o 12 днів тому +4

      I'm thinking about beginning my investment journey, but I feel a bit overwhelmed and uncertain. Do you have any friendly tips or suggestions for people I could reach out to for guidance?

    • @rowdiehowie
      @rowdiehowie 12 днів тому

      Thanks to my co-worker (Alex) who suggested Mr Mark hutchinson

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      @rowdiehowie 12 днів тому

      He’s a licensed broker, very big in the states 🇺🇸. Though I met him in Texas , I did my research.

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      @TkGTheta 12 днів тому

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    • @TkGTheta
      @TkGTheta 12 днів тому

      I got started with a miserly $7000. The results have been mind blowing I must say
      TBH!!

  • @liveandlocalacadiana
    @liveandlocalacadiana 12 днів тому +4

    Jeramie is so afraid he won't be a cheerleader we need to say thank you to Kraken even more because they were waiting everywhere else for 100k bitcoin before listing

    • @M3LTUP
      @M3LTUP 12 днів тому +1

      Agree. Everyone should try to buy a little KAS on Kraken to reward them for being the first Tier-1 to list. Uphold deserves recognition too.

    • @liveandlocalacadiana
      @liveandlocalacadiana 12 днів тому

      @M3LTUP I have an will continue but I am also waiting for the KEC-20s to get on Kraken also.

  • @wes-tones-wealth-cycles
    @wes-tones-wealth-cycles 12 днів тому

    Kas cycles and power law update:
    ua-cam.com/video/3SVk18WpA0Q/v-deo.html

  • @JoMunianga
    @JoMunianga День тому +1

    I believe that KRC20 put a lot of selling on KAS as minting and transacting KAS as well as miners taking profits from the activity. I think the same pressure was excerpted on ADA when smart contracts were made available and any asset had to be swapped with ADA, the fees were through the roof when prior to the smart contracts it was barely anything.

  • @Willopops
    @Willopops 12 днів тому +1

    🫡

  • @rhemy1
    @rhemy1 12 днів тому +1

    Krc20 affects the power law because it shifts incentives on the network. Many miners were highly profitable and dumped on the market. It dropped their average cost for profitability allowing them to dump the market even lower.

    • @bahjatzahlani8610
      @bahjatzahlani8610 12 днів тому +2

      Yeah but it’s also the reason for the massive rise in hashrate, which raised the cost of mining Kaspa forever :) it will even out in the grand scheme of things.

  • @-joe-davidson
    @-joe-davidson 11 днів тому

    KAS is dead.
    It had a good run.
    .
    .
    .
    .
    .
    .
    .
    .
    .
    .
    .
    Just kidding.

  • @hshm1888
    @hshm1888 12 днів тому +2

    Can't explain shifty coin. Kas is a zi onest scam

  • @duongtuan-od7kx
    @duongtuan-od7kx 10 днів тому

    Thanks to you, I now have realistic expectations for this bull run. I entered crypto earlier this year, and your insights on cycles and market connections have been invaluable. I now understand how global markets impact crypto, so I'm watching traditional market tops closely. Without your guidance, I’d probably be holding blindly instead of actively managing my positions. Growing my portfolio from 2.3 BTC to 24 BTC in a few months has been incredible. Special thanks to Kerrie Farrell for her expertise, which has been essential in navigating this complex landscape..

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      @duongtuan-od7kx 10 днів тому

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      @kristinangelova9780 10 днів тому

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      @natureland1981 10 днів тому

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      @CatherineOliver-c7d 10 днів тому

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      @LeightonCorrigan 10 днів тому

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  • @t_crypto
    @t_crypto 12 днів тому

    Giovanni never talks about kaspa in his paid discord. Only on twitter some marketing tweets

  • @kuathidup8615
    @kuathidup8615 12 днів тому

    Kaspa sell the news😂😂😂

  • @epicmedia2280
    @epicmedia2280 12 днів тому

    Yes. Power law narrative is dead.
    It will enter the bands again since altcoin season is around the corner but the next deviation will be worst.
    Kaspa is NOT a power law.

  • @MegaFreez3
    @MegaFreez3 12 днів тому

    Kaspa is dead sorry

    • @clarkgwozdecki6782
      @clarkgwozdecki6782 9 днів тому

      Retail was eventually going tocome back and buy normie coins. They still have no clue about Kaspa but they will soon

    • @rennerbike5022
      @rennerbike5022 8 днів тому

      Kaspa has not been alive yet. It will wake up with 10bps and smart contracts.

  • @itssteve6018
    @itssteve6018 12 днів тому

    Nobody wants to buy genocide coin

    • @Carnage-ki4xj
      @Carnage-ki4xj 12 днів тому

      Stop crying Clown Kaspa has nothing to do with religion you 🤡

    • @rennerbike5022
      @rennerbike5022 8 днів тому +1

      Kaspa devs are not only from Israel, only one of them has stated his opinion, which has got nothing to do with the project itself. So to call it genocide is far fetched,