Hi james..long time player here.. I love your videos but I'm just not that into deep math and especially speculation math.. lots of my opponents are different and I don't really know them so I can never tell what they will call with.. let alone assign some abstract value to assign to it.. I have no doubt your work is extremely helpful I just can't get myself to grind the math like that at my age lol
I guess I would ask "if you don't see this stuff as valuable enough to be working on, what is your strategy built upon?" You're 100% correct that villain's differ significantly, but at least doing some analysis on a 'right down the middle' type for villain gives you a great baseline for real-time deviation.
The hugely important part missing in this video is how much money is left in your opponents' stack. Especially in live games 1/3 and 2/5. You won't be getting a ton of folds because people will often feel pot committed on the turn. So, in your example, you will be getting folds mainly from - hands that missed the lower flush draw than yours, broadway hands like KJ, AJ, AK maybe second pairs, or small pocket pairs, but almost never from the top pairs, overpairs or , two pairs. So, your opponents stack size will dictate your options. Because that overbet is irrelevant if your opponent doesn't have to match it due to him being short stack, which happens very often in live casino games...
James - Good to see a post for you, and hope you were alright on the break. Love the topic, makes me think and is applicable to my other game (PLO - less the overbet) as well.
The problem with applying this to the table when playing is we know that from player population data that was shown on a red chip poker podcast with coach w33zel over betting the pot as a bluff had less success than betting an amount under the pot, so this would mean that in theory some bluffs can be assumed to be plus EV but could actually be minus in reality. The assumption that betting a bigger amount will always yield more folds is not actually true when we analyze player population data.
If you play live cash, you should ACE THIS QUIZ within 3 minutes. Can you? www.splitsuit.com/live-chip-stacks-quiz/
Hi james..long time player here.. I love your videos but I'm just not that into deep math and especially speculation math.. lots of my opponents are different and I don't really know them so I can never tell what they will call with.. let alone assign some abstract value to assign to it.. I have no doubt your work is extremely helpful I just can't get myself to grind the math like that at my age lol
I guess I would ask "if you don't see this stuff as valuable enough to be working on, what is your strategy built upon?" You're 100% correct that villain's differ significantly, but at least doing some analysis on a 'right down the middle' type for villain gives you a great baseline for real-time deviation.
The hugely important part missing in this video is how much money is left in your opponents' stack. Especially in live games 1/3 and 2/5. You won't be getting a ton of folds because people will often feel pot committed on the turn. So, in your example, you will be getting folds mainly from - hands that missed the lower flush draw than yours, broadway hands like KJ, AJ, AK maybe second pairs, or small pocket pairs, but almost never from the top pairs, overpairs or , two pairs. So, your opponents stack size will dictate your options. Because that overbet is irrelevant if your opponent doesn't have to match it due to him being short stack, which happens very often in live casino games...
Yo! Just checked your channel yesterday as it seemed like it had been a while since I saw a video. Glad to see you back. 👍
tyty! New babies take a lot of time away from making YT videos lol
Good stuff James.. That's the type of content I come here for
Cheers Kim!
James - Good to see a post for you, and hope you were alright on the break. Love the topic, makes me think and is applicable to my other game (PLO - less the overbet) as well.
Cheers! And yup, the math works just the same for PLO 👍
The content I needed today.
Perfect timing then!
Thanks from AU Mr S.
The problem with applying this to the table when playing is we know that from player population data that was shown on a red chip poker podcast with coach w33zel over betting the pot as a bluff had less success than betting an amount under the pot, so this would mean that in theory some bluffs can be assumed to be plus EV but could actually be minus in reality. The assumption that betting a bigger amount will always yield more folds is not actually true when we analyze player population data.
The only issue is that it presumes that online and live population data are the exact same, which you can certainly argue they are not 👍
Good to have you back split
Thank you!
Can you do a video on straddling?
Does this one work? ua-cam.com/video/36gdtFDcw64/v-deo.html
Welcome back!
tyty!
Good morning James
Good morning!
27o UTG all in
Seems risky
🛑 STOP THE BACKGROUND MUSIC 😢
It's not even that loud!
@@ThePokerBank Can't focus
First
guessing game 😞
Improving your guessing skills helps a lot =)
Another sales pitch from red chip poker disguised as a tutorial!
It's a tutorial that also has a sales pitch. Do with each as you will 👍
@@ThePokerBank Yer so zen.