Is China Really Worried About Another Trade War??
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- Опубліковано 8 лип 2024
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0:00 Is China Worried?
3:10 Mexico to Continue US Corn Imports
6:20 Crop Conditions
8:46 US Radar / Weather
10:12 Grain Shipment Update
🌾📊 Global Agricultural Update: Trade Dynamics, Crop Conditions, and Weather Patterns 🌍🌦️
Welcome back to our channel, where we delve into significant global agricultural developments, including trade shifts, crop conditions, and evolving weather impacts. Here’s what’s happening this week:
China's Soybean Import Surge
China is expected to import a record amount of soybeans this month, driven by reduced global soybean prices and strategic purchasing ahead of potential geopolitical shifts. The prospect of a new Trump presidency has stirred concerns about possible US tariff increases, which could ignite a trade war, influencing global soybean trade dynamics. Despite these concerns, China's reliance on cheaper Brazilian soybeans has lessened the potential impact of US market shifts.
Mexico's Agricultural Policy Shift
Mexico is revising its agricultural strategy by abandoning plans to reduce yellow corn imports and instead focusing on achieving self-sufficiency in white corn production. This move comes after the previous administration's attempts to limit genetically modified corn imports sparked a trade dispute with the US. The new policy aims to balance trade relationships while committing to significant environmental goals like halving deforestation.
US Crop Conditions and Weather Forecast
US corn conditions have seen a slight decline, though some states like Illinois and South Dakota reported improvements. The overall good to excellent ratings for soybeans held steady, despite declines in states like Iowa and Nebraska. Weather forecasts indicate widespread rainfall across the Corn Belt, with differing projections from the Euro and GFS models affecting expectations for moisture distribution, crucial for ongoing crop development.
Wheat Harvest Progress
The US winter wheat harvest is progressing rapidly, significantly ahead of schedule with substantial completion in states like Kansas and Texas. However, winter wheat conditions have slightly deteriorated. In contrast, the spring wheat crop is seeing favorable conditions, which bodes well for the upcoming yield potentials.
Grain Export Trends
US corn shipments experienced a decline last week, although they are still up year-over-year. Soybean and wheat exports also saw reductions from the previous week, reflecting fluctuating global demand and supply chain dynamics. These trends are critical for understanding the broader impacts on global grain markets.
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For detailed insights into these and other agricultural topics, make sure to subscribe to our channel. We provide comprehensive analysis to help you understand the dynamics affecting global agriculture and markets.
💬 Join the Conversation:
What are your thoughts on China's strategic soybean purchases? How do you view Mexico's shift in agricultural policy? Share your perspectives in the comments below. Your insights help us provide more relevant content and discussions. - Розваги
At the time of the last report, still over 3 million acres of corn yet to be planted and 12 million for soybeans. Little side note nobody’s talking about
Those numbers are higher than normal, but not totally crazy. They are as of the survey period, May 30th to June 16th...not as of report day.
I just pulled some corn that's 5 feet tall out of the ground like it was nothing. I'm already shopping for a corn reel. We're going to have alot of downed corn. The brace roots aren't there.
Read over the weekend the corn market just needs a old "Hawk Tuah" to get it going 😂😂 as ugly as it was Friday that might have been best take on the day
Good report
Northern Missouri looks Awesome!! $3 corn and $9 beans are going to happen.
Do a quick refresher premium vid on locking in basis.
Shoot me a text or email.
Going to be interesting to see what the pro tour finds
It’ll be like always within 1 to 2 bushels of USDA. I’ve thought for years that pro farmer Crop Tour was bought and paid for with good money
Another 1 to 2 inches across NC ND. Ponds are getting bigger and more crop turning yellow from getting wet feet. Next will be disease in cereal grains and peas. That’s my update.
Barring a huge disaster or rain just shuts off don't really see the markets improving till after harvest. Usda knows farmers have operating loans coming due and will be forced to sell a few bushels at low prices
Good morning! Will there be another US/China trade war? China has been the largest buyer of US soybeans this year.
Darn good show. Your fellow utuber The Grumpy Farmer from ny just shipped a load of grain to a shipping container he said. Was wondering if that gets reported to usda.
The trade war was a tough pill to swallow however I do feel it worked I feel it caused most Industries in America including agriculture to be better I feel the prices we had in 21 and 22 were riding the coattails of that
🤔 So it has been stated that as much as 1/3 of Iowa acres were effected by the double digit rainfall. And USDA only drops 4% good to excellent?
Source?
@@GrainMarketsandOtherStuff
Commstock Channel 7 Days ago
"Historic Midwest Flooding, And Nobody Cares"
Marlin Bohling talk with Eric Relph who is boots on the ground there.
🙂
@@GrainMarketsandOtherStuff Understand the response I gave please. "Effected" acres. This would not mean Flooded out all together. But effected in some part by 13-18 inches of water. But I do think that it should garner more than a 4% drop in the rating. Perhaps again Government is not really up to speed with reality in their reporting.🤔
@@michaelrust7614 I gotcha. Crop ratings are a view from the road...can be deeply flawed.
China pays attention to prices, not 'maybe' tarrifs.
I disagree. I believe grain prices will go back to 8 dollar soybeans and 3.50 corn when Trump gets back in if weather stays positive. We will make our money during the Trump administration through tarrifs going back to the farmers. So your youtube title could be accurate.
I'll take my chances with Trump!! Seems like we had fairly good prices when he was in. Not to mention everything else was better.
If prices were good under Trump then please explain why farmers received two MFP payments and PPP loans that didn’t need repayments.
A Convicted Rapist-Fraud-Liar Who Cheated On His Wife With A Porn Star Is Unfit For Any Office Especially President. What Kind Of Values To Think A CONVICTED RAPIST Is A Good Man For President..?
Market price + MFP payment = good bean price
Lmao
Nevertheless his efforts were to see that farmers made money, we had trade, we had forgiven loans, now we have no trade we have no loans, feels as if there a chance to talk to Trump and he cares, it's just easier to say are you better off today than you were 3, 4 years ago.@@billgallagher2797
Oh wow now we believe what china says lol
By the way Biden has not taken the Trump tariff off. I’ll b unsubscribing now
@@brucebruhn5620 Tariffs are waived on both sides. China still has tariffs on US beans, but waives them in almost every instance. That's why they've been able to buy US beans this past year.
In may ‘24 Biden administration retained 301 tariffs and increased them from 25 to 100%
@@brucebruhn5620 Yes. I guess I'm not sure what you're trying to argue.
No argument. Just everyone implies Trump tariffs left when Biden came in not true. I quess I like truth. Hard to find .
China might worry about Trump 2.0 in 2025, but more about geopolitical implications than soybean or commodity tariffs.