Massive Homeowner Exodus | Nashville Housing Update
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- Опубліковано 29 бер 2024
- This is a Data centric Analytical approach to the Nashville Tn Housing Market. We look at trends in active listings, median price, mortgage rates, contracts, rent rates
Ethan Flynn
www.ethanflynn.com
423-767-6000
tflynn@realtracs.com
www.ethanflynn.com
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TN CPA License: 24309
TN Real Estate License: 356949
greaternashvillerealtors.org
www.realtracs.com
Recurve Real Estate
DANA JORGENSEN
PRINCIPAL BROKER | OWNER
LICENSE: 344195
(615) 496-3837
dana@recurverealestate.com
#housingmarketupdate #nashville #housingcrash #housingmarket
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I think Memphis is losing people over crime.
I have an anecdote for this. I had a 6 week internship this may and we had an alumni dinner ( people who previously were in the internship ) and a newly graduated young woman talked about moving out of Memphis do to it getting worse than it already was down there. On top of that even my grandparents talk about how much worse it's getting
Memphis is losing people because crime and infrastructure failures are worse than they have been in a long while... it's one reason why we're moving to the Nashville area actually.
Wow. I’m sorry to hear this. I’ve been talking to a lot of people moving from west tn to Nashville recently. Pretty wild.
@@EthanFlynn My brother moved from Memphis to Nashville. I asked him what's the difference between the two cities and he told me in Memphis Kroger closes at 10:00 pm and if you go to Wal-Mart late at night you are going.to get robbed!
Memphis is low cost and losing population because of the crime, lack of opportunity, infrastructure, and overall culture. Same reason as Gary, Indiana Flint, Michigan. Germantown is the only livable part of Memphis.
🎉🎉🎉 Hi 👋🏼 Ethan 👋🏼
I’ve been watching the real estate market in Middle Tennessee ever since I bought my first house out there about 22 years ago and only paid $105,000 for it. It just blows my mind how strong the market is out there. Some of these houses are at or almost priced like they’re in California 😮. So many people moving in from other wealthy places and still find the pricing reasonable.
I’m really trying my best to figure out what’s going on there. My last house I bought in Mount Juliet (About 6 years ago) was only $435,K and I did many upgrades to it while it was being built.. But $435,K was still my total investment.
I sold it a little less than 2 years ago for $778,K and now I see the value at $836,K
But deep down inside I still feel like it will crash 💥.
It’s a very strange time regarding Real Estate in Tennessee.
Thank you so much for your thoughts and especially the data you share with us.
Blessings, C Los
✝️🙏❤️😊🇺🇸
Yeah it’s wild but the changes are looking pretty bearish. It just takes so long to cycle through comps to contracts to more comps.
Good info as always. Looks like we are going to see an awful lot of homes stay on the market 3-6 months or longer. What do you think this affect the NAR Lawsuit - Commission debacle? My thought is that when homes sit on the market there is not sense of urgency. That allows a lot of time to think of alternative comp structures for Realtors. Not sure what will happen but a lot of inventory will surely accelerate change.
Memphis is losing population for the same reason Jackson. MS, New Orleans, LA and Birmingham, AL are also losing people, nasty crime stats..
That’s what I’m hearing. Crime.
I just moved to Madison TN from Dallas tx a year ago and currently rent a duplex. It sucks that the cheapest home in my area is $300k. I’d love to get a house however prices are just way too high for me to comfortably live in. Plus it’s hard to come up with $60k for just the down payment and that’s not including closing costs and realtor fees. Now is not the time to buy.
I think it might be because people like the dude who's talking in this video above
Great work - I think we saw this coming. The major driver to lower home prices will be affordability. Nolensville prices are dropping but greed is still alive and well. At the end of the day people can't move here and maintain a champagne lifestyle on Nashville salaries. Tech and financial services are seeing major layoffs and salary reductions. The vast majority of new jobs are services and government - that isn't sustainable. And yes MANY of the investors are bailing out so the "cash buyer" is a diminishing influence.
Are you seeing/hearing of any layoffs in Nashville?
I think you're asking the right question: what are these sellers doing with their proceeds? In the absence of data would it make sense to create a couple scenarios of % split by: 1) upgrading 2) renting, 3) moving out, and then predictions based on those scenarios? For example, if 80% are upgrading, that's bullish. If 80% are cashing out and renting (or moving out), that's very bearish
It’s a great question! It’s not like the population is shrinking. But does it make sense to cash out and rent if you’re struggling to make ends meet? Or if you’re an airbnb owner with floating debt? Who is selling?
Seems to me that the sharp rise in Davidson County might be a tell. Just not sure what yet.
@@EthanFlynn Right, but if you bought a few years ago, you're still sitting on a 3% rate. Why cash out?
The previous comments nailed it. Memphis is mismanaged.
Memphis is depressing these days. Crime is through the roof.
Sad
We are shopping the Nashville metro area. Davidson County offers some beautiful homes in our price range compared to Williamson and Wilson counties. We will not consider a home in Davidson County regardless of the value offered for two critical reasons: (a) the schools are awful. Regardless of the value per ft2 a larger home is going to be most attractive to a family, and the schools are absolutely critical--especially considering one have to sell in the future. (b) when the country commissioners raised property taxes by 30% in one fell swoop, we're out. We deal with high property taxes and tax increases in our current home state and is one of the reasons we are leaving. Property taxes are a killer for everyone regardless of income --especially when you consider the majority of property taxes go to schools. High property taxes are indicative of government mismanagement--and I refuse to expose myself to that. You can have low property taxes, good schools, and solid governmental management--it takes commitment, that is all. A 30% increase in property taxes in a year is unconscionable. Davidson County--no way!
Just saw this quote. Tax hike likely coming for Davidson. “One avenue for balancing a flat-revenue budget that does not seem to be on the table: a property-tax increase. Crumbo said he thinks it is “ideal” to look at property-tax rate changes in the same year that the city goes through the reappraisal and equalization process.”
Memphis IS HIGH CRIME!!!! Very Dem
Memphis because of crime, for sure
Even in suburbs?
@@EthanFlynnpeople driving around downtown hanging out windows with assault rifles and blocking streets...worse I've ever seen, been here since 2007. Leaving in May.
@@sdblalock21 "Hanging out windows with assault rifles"? Sound like Afghanistan or Chiraq.
Why is Memphis loosing people? It's a terrible crime ridden city...the answer is obvious.
Its wild in memphis.
Memphis has terrible taxes and it’s just ugly.
Ugly 😂. Haven’t heard that one yet.
You don’t like the pyramid?
I feel since it’s an election year mainstream news is not reporting as many negatives in an effort to support their party. So are you basically saying it’ll take at least 6 months to show major price drops once the active listings peak out? Wow
Everything in contract is going up. At least 4-6 weeks of closings moving prices up. That puts us in May. So more like exaggerated seasonal trends. Spring prices moving up fast, then likely summer/fall prices falling. But probably more volatile than a normal year.
@@EthanFlynn ok thanks for clarifying.
I’m so confused why you think inventory is about to completely flood the market and thus prices will continue to rise.
Literally the only two things keeping prices high in Nashville are immigration (this will be a positive feature for probably the next decade) and record low inventory as compared to all of nashvilles history.
If inventory doubles (looks likely to) then how would this push prices higher? Again prices are already 10% lower from all time highs if you exclude houses selling for over 1 million dollars and only those built 2023 or earlier (so no new builds which have incentives like rate buy downs which are like a 5-10% discount by the builder but not accounted for).
Prices are already going down, I use Realtracs and can confirm this, they’re down on average about 10% from all time highs median sale price per square foot.
Prices are going to rise for the next month because contract price is a leading indicator. I have no idea what will happen after that. My hunch is if the rise of existing inventory continues then prices will fall pretty dramatically. But who knows 🤷♂️
@@EthanFlynn FOMO wave goes up with greed and down with fear, but either way the majority will ride it. If rates stay elevated (as they probably will), prices will have to drop to match peoples incomes.
Memphis is losing people due to crime but also look at the demographic of the city... people don't want to necessarily live next to certain groups of people all the time 😆😆 and this is coming from a person who lived in NY, DC, and Los Angeles
Are you one of the people pricing the locals out of homes?
Please don’t fall for the trap of blaming your neighbors for unaffordable housing. This is a direct result of federal reserve and treasury money printing. Your politicians in Washington caused this. Nobody is intentionally trying to price you out of a home and many of the people moving to Nashville are trying to escape the insane policies that create this pain.
@@EthanFlynn Policy is a huge factor but that is only part of it. Without individuals complicit in the action the system would not be taking the precise direction that it is.
Here, in Nashville, homes were scooped up and turned out for massive profits by individuals and private equity forms, That action *was* taken by folks who are now my neighbor. How am I expected to get around this fact?
And yeah, folks are escaping but still bring their lifestyle habits and attitudes with them, which is part of the same force that is pricing folks out of homes.
Prices are about to drop quite a bit. Let’s see just how far they go. Maybe we get back to affordability fairly quickly.
People are leaving Memphis due to demographics