'China Is Fading', What's Next Will Shake The World | Lars Christensen
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- Опубліковано 7 чер 2024
- Lars Christensen, Associate Professor at the Copenhagen Business School, discusses the outlook for global growth, China's economy, and the future of the dollar.
*This video was recorded on May 9, 2024
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*This video is not financial advice. The channel is not responsible for the performance of sponsors and affiliates.
0:00 - Intro
1:10 - Slowdown in China
5:58 - China and Japan demographics
7:51 - AI and productivity
10:14 - Developing economies
12:47 - Yuan
19:45 - Capitalism and freedom
21:10 - Globalization
25:58 - Future of global growth
32:56 - Dollar
#economy #economy #investing
This guy really hypes up the U.S. and it's innovative growth. The U.S. is in very serious decline politically, economically, and culturally.
As an American I agree. But the US does have some still economic power, but it's more veiled. For example, they own Apple, one of the worlds biggest companies, and their products might be produced in foreign countries, but the lions share of the profits go to America. Really all the biggest corporations in the world are American. Look how ubiquitous Microsoft is world wide, and many other technological companies. To me, it seems America's deep state switched it's economic model to something they have not openly talked about. America still does a lot of innovation as well. The greatest worry in regards to American decline is the cultural and demographic decline. America used to be a source of brain drain for other countries, but now it's Marxist DEI, ESG policies are doing the opposite. They are weakening every US industry and institution. Instead of importing the best, it is a free for all at the border for the worst to come into the country. This demographic and cultural decline will undermine all the strongest and best elements of America. Its innovation, its military, its people, it's remaining freedom, and ultimately the economy as the economy rests on those things. It is intentional destruction of the US from a 5th column inside the US.
Innovative growth is a market process and depends on the initiative of individuals, not on the culture or ploitical system. US decline is in the culture & political system. To the extent that there are still elements of a free market, innovation can thrive. The problem is that the political systrem increasingly limits freedom and attacks economic initiative. What he's saying is that the free market generates innovation, and few countries around the world have free markets. The US has less than it once did, but it still looks good compared to China and much of the EU. While I'm not as optimistic as Prof. Christensen, my wife came here from Germany precisely for the reasons he describes. If the Democrats have their way, of course, we will increasingly look like Germany and suffer from the kind of decline afflicting Germany now.
Cleanest shirt in the laundry
@@Hueyck In your opinion. I think there are a lot of other countries in the world that are less corrupt and are capable of or on their way to ousting the U.S. as a world power.
@@mlangbert Individuals are effected by culture and political systems.
I think this guy needs to remove his western rose tinted glasses and travel to China and asia to see for himself his prognosis is rubbish. I stopped listening to halfway though as could not stop laughing
I agree. China is the absolute powerhouse. They hold all the cards, all the industry.
Ugh business professors. The people who most don't know what they are talking about. These people are often the people that respect the scientific method the least and they never validate their theories with real life experiments. All they ever do is propose silly ideas and then datamine the shit out of everything to create corroborating evidence.
I think he was actually pretty accurate. What he said about China, India and other things were generally true. It's just what people don't want to hear. No one wants to hear the playground bully is too big to dislodge at the moment.
@@huwhitecavebeast1972 He's actually not accurate at all. Pulling out all the tricks to fool people who are not well versed in Economics. We can debunk his junk economics one point at a time.
1) Demographics is not a first order effect on economic growth.
For all of human history demographics has never been the basis to generate economic growth. It is economic growth that allows for population growth, not the other way around. A large population not a boon but a drag on growth. Every society that achieves a population boom, achieves it from some underlying economic boom. When that boom eventually loses steam the overly large population that is leftover becomes a noose from which the society then hangs. The only real driver of long term economic growth is growth in productivity from improvements in human capital, physical capital and technology.
2) There is no such thing as over investment.
The key distinction here is understanding investment at the micro level and investment at the macro level. In any particular micro investment there comes a point at which there are no more benefits from investment. However this is never true at the macro level. Its like saying you learnt so much about the Universe you have nothing left to learn. This is ridiculous given it is not even possible to ever learn even a tiny fraction of all there is to learn. You can say that China has over investment in a particular project but it makes no sense to say that the Chinese have over invested in general. No one could ever over invest in general. The debate if there is one to be had is not about over investment but about good vs bad investments.
3) China is flooded with bad investments while we are flooded with good investments.
If that were true why have they increased their economy by 30 times in the same time frame that we increased our economy by 4 times. You say well that was in the past but this is about the now and the future. Except their growth was about 3 times faster before and it is still about 3 times faster now. The only exception being the post pandemic inflation period. But we all know why that is. We aren't growing any faster in 2024 than we were in 2017. The private savings rate, fiscal deficit and trade deficit all tell us that we are mismanaging the economy as badly as ever. It is just that we have chosen to trick ourselves with inflation and creative accounting. Some then choose to console themselves with the cheap lie that because the foreign exchange markets haven't punished us for any of the inflation it must be so that the economy is doing great. To believe that you'd have to believe that the foreign exchange market is some kind of magic market that never experiences bubbles and is always right. Just think about it, is the US economy really growing 3-6% a year while having 3-10% inflation or is the foreign exchange market just in a bubble. Which is the explanation that is 100 times easier to reconcile with all the facts that you see on the ground?
He is just another American Chihuahuas.
Blah blah you're just another jealous hater.
Here comes another Gordon Chong Fox News should give him spotlight on China collapse
the despicable gordon chang
🤣🤣🤣
“China is fading” while my China trade’s been up 50% since beginning of the year. 😂
exactly my point
"China is fading''.......hahahaha that gave me a good laugh.
Why?
China is very strong and is upgrading its industry@@liamrmorgans921
@@liamrmorgans921Because they grow more than us and by oil with their currency 😂
I was in China last year - nobody will tell me that China has economic problems
@@lavague7648 what about their housing market? Don’t they have full empty cities built as investment properties?
Oh boy, I watched half of the video. How can I unlearned this?
Word Salad and half truths 🤡
Sounds to me like you didn't understand him. What I heard was very clear.
Unfortunately you have no clue. I would recommend to listen to this interview again slowly
Very true. I have seen many of this kind selling exactly the same narrative across youtube. 😂😂😂
@@lavague7648who tells the real narrative?
Nobody, because simply nobody knows. The only fact till now is that usd and us assets are super inflated. Use your knowledge and judgement.
The guest is talking from non-reality 😂
It's funny because Chinese stocks have just been ripping for the last month month and a half
because you cant sell lol
And? How does that disprove what he said? The Chinese stock market is incredibly corrupt and even more rife with insider trading than the American stock market, which is saying something. The American stock market has been on a rip since 2010, doesn't mean much though. The economy in America is not good and inflation is high, but this won't show up in the stock market.
The stock market is not an economy 😂
Investors are still in denial about the fundamentals of the economy. They expect rares will soon be cut and believe the topline GDP numbers signal a strong economy. However, they dont. Credit card balences are maxed out, more credit is hard to come by for consumers, a ton of companies are about to beforced into refinancing their debs at far higher interest and the regional bank backstop program is out this month. There's also the fact that inflation ticks higher than expected every single time the markets believe a rate cut is around the corner and a rate cut would cause a surge in inflation. The fed sees this stuff, guys. The only wild card for us investors is to actively engage the market by trading, we always over complicate things when we speculate. It's not about guessing the market's next move; it's about playing it smart and steady during trading...managed to grow a nest egg of around 100k to a decent 732k in the space of a few months... I'm especially grateful to Tobias Hawke, whose deep expertise and traditional trading acumen have been invaluable in this challenging, ever-evolving financial landscape.
Tobias Hawke program is widely available online..
Indeed, the recent market downturn serves as evidence that a vast majority of individuals lacked a sufficient understanding of the underlying financial dynamics at play.
When it comes to investing, we want our money to grow with the highest rates of return, and the lowest risk possible. While there are no shortcuts to getting rich, but there are smart ways to go about it..
Over the years, I've been a part of numerous trading programs, sifting through a barrage of information. Yet, nothing has come close to the sheer clarity, depth, and precision of Tobias insights. It's akin to finding a diamond in a coal mine.
I agree that there are strategies that could be put in place for solid gains regardless of economy or market condition, but such executions are usually carried out by investment experts or advisors with experience.
hahaha the moment he said "the people should get rid of the CPC", i knew this interviewee is a neocon big-time.
I find it incredible how a huge country like Brazil was left out completely from the conversion. Its as if Brasil was a huge jungle in the midle of south america with copacabana as the coast. The truth is, all the countries, most importantly the US, have always actively supported the wrong situarions to prevent brazil from prospering... Of course corruption in br plays a big role, but its all interconnected.
The entire world will experience a Lost Decade. Get ready.
Developing markets will be great. The West is a complete disaster.
GDP is Grossly Distorted Propaganda
What is NDP, Net Domestic Product?
What has happened to the depreciation of durable consumer goods since Sputnik? Economists do not say much about planned obsolescence.
Wishful thinking lmaaaaaaaaaoooooooooooooooooo
China is one of the countries that get it. They're investing in developing countries without trying to spread "democracy" or "communism." China is a world leader and innovative powerhouse.
Growing GDP in the US? Did he say that? Please set a debate between this guy and Peter Schiff
Whackwhackadoodle.
Gordon Chang's disciple? 😂😂😂😂
The only thing this guy got correct is the "South Park episode" or is he
Completely ridiculous . Chinese economy is already the largest economy and growing . Not surprised he's Danish
Yes but it has it's own problems.
Wrong! The US is still the largest economy in the world by a good margin; about $27 trillion to China's $17 trillion. The top five:
US
China
Germany
Japan
India
@@carney731Yes but with inflated currency😂😂😂.
@@carney731your wrong. Google it
China
USA
India
Japan
Germany
Russia
Gordon Chang's love child.
So is Europe fading too... Or gone?
Hard working Chinese people will again prove Western Thinkers wrong.
the people of the east and west are not at war. Our governments often do not ask the people what we want. Best of luck to China I say. We are interdependent. Anyone saying otherwise is wrong.
Good luck to ya.
The CCP is making the same mistakes as the KMT 國民黨.
Good luck with hyper inflation. Hard work won't help the real Chinese people.
as an Italian living in China i can confidently say that this professor doesn't know what he is talking about
@@lova87able maybe, but also hard to trust anything coming from china.
AI will replace Elon Musk, Jeff Bezos, Mark Zuckerberg, and Bill Gates. 😂😂😂
Unfortunately he is JUST A WASTE OF MY TIME!! 🤣🤣🤣
A LOT OF NONSENSE HERE !!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!
Godon'$ apprentic?
China is recovering from a partial collapse in the housing sector and all indications are the people are experiencing real pay increases. XI Jinping is courting French and Serbian trade relations right now and the BRICS countries are expanding in number. Once they introduce a mutual payment system the dollar will quickly lose dominance and the age of the Petro-Dollar will be over. Listening to this guy reminds me that "Economics" and "Economists" exist in a bubble' totally removed from reality.
To bad no one wants to do business in brics, and to bad it's countries with small economies involved and many of them still buy usa debt. So good lack to ya on your pipe dream. Serbia is a great trading partner 😂
kasper Joe has a plan to fix everything enjoy your future.... THREADS
Chinas data is bs. Makes the US economic data release look spot on. Lol
I think you overestimate the impact of the BRICS. At least for now. BRICS countries have a lot of problems(not that the US doesn't) and don't have much mutual trust. I think if the US doesn't change it's ways the dollar will definitely lose it's dominance. It's been in steady decline since 1913. And I highly doubt the American government will change. The only thing that could change it is a highly destructive and murderous civil war. This guy was right about China's problems with innovation, India's backwardness economically, Brazil is in trouble since Lula took office, and South Africa....does anything even need to be said about South Africa?? I think you are one of the cheerleaders for the destruction of the US, but the end is not yet.
@@huwhitecavebeast1972 I am Welsh, my Celtish people suffered under the hands of the bastard Anglo-Saxons for hundreds of years, but I have happily prospered in their culture for 70 years! So no, I don't really wish to see the end of an era, I always admired America as a bastion of freedom and peace. But time moves on, I have changed, America has changed (not for the better, IMHO) and I fear for my children and grand children. I have no trust in any of these "experts" any more, but I listen and occasionally throw out a comment in my ignorance, which can hopefuly give me other peoples points of view. I agree, the end is not yet, but the fear of it is real. I wish you good luck.
I continue to insist all of these talking heads should carry a record. For example, if this guy has been wrong 12 out of 23 times he’s opened his mouth, I’d be done with him. …. or a batting average! Whatever you wanna call it.
Lars is an empty suit ! 😂
Looks like this guy has no real world experience on automation.
For the past two decades I hear from financial analysts that China is about to crash financially.
In fact 🇨🇳 GNP almost tripled during the period in USD terms.
The only years China experienced negative growth were 2008 and 2020 which is a much better track record than all OECD countries.
It was painful to listen to this guy, China is in decline, lmao.
He means from prior high levels of growth. That's true. China's economic growth is projected to be something like 6%, when it used to be double digits. I wouldn't say China is in decline, except that the government is growing more authoritarian. China can ride on the fumes of it's prior explosion for quite awhile, similar to what the US did from the 1950s onwards. Also there are some other things that are in decline....but it's like who can tell if it has declined, or that there were already issues to begin with? With so much fakery, fake gold, fake housing, etc it's hard to tell because both Chinese government and businesses are not transparent.
America is also facing a lost decade, which as we know has been 3.5 decades for Japan. We need to be realistic about this debt situation. We are in bad shape. Be nimble, pay attention.
Sorry I think this guy is out of touch with reality. He hasn't moved with the changes that have happened over the last few years.
So, basically, David Lin's indicator signals strong buy for risk assets
Mr. Christensen is living clearly in the past. He also didn't listen to Larry Fink at the WEF. Productivity gains will most likely neglect declining demographics, causing substantial positive wealth effects. Essential is the fair distribution of productivity gains among the population, and in this respect the Chinese system has substantial advantages.
Not as gloomy as Gordon Chang.
what means Associate Professor ?
Understanding China's economic and political scene is tough because the government keeps data under wraps. This affects not only Western scholars but also local folks who are clueless about where the country's headed. With unreliable data, getting things right is a real challenge. Western scholars, working with limited info, often miss the mark. It's like they've got China all wrong! This situation calls for a more flexible approach, one that recognizes the info gaps and seeks diverse perspectives to grasp China's complex dynamics better.
Excellent interview, David! Keep it up!!!!!!!!
Thank you for the video ! Do you believe that FourPrime Token will be the main pump in 2024? I mean they prepared it for a long time and the vision is beyond greatness
Us Q1 real gdp = 1.6 after unparallel deficit spending and he is optimistic about us growth!!! I heared the same narrative from several others. The question remains the same. How us will continou to growth?
Thank You for everything, the way of FourPrime Token is just incredible, these guys are great
Now do GDP per capita.
Captalism = freedom = democracy? Really? Just another Chicago School boy. Ask American's: "Capitalism, how's that workin' out for ya?"
The FourPrime Token handles this year incredibly well, they outperform most others and the entry with 1 USD is better than anything else right now. Love the vision and progress in this one
Not the best year but celebrating FourPrime Token now! What a time to be alive guys, seriously
Meanwhile EU is in recession and US 1st quarter GDP grow 1.4%
Riding the FourPrime Token train feels so good, they really know how to make promises count and bring them to reality
With FourPrime Token this year is way different and way more powerful as well. These guys did everything right and they can only improve more and more, love it
I thought China is already collapsed last month 😅
No more DCA if things are progressing and we are at the first step for new ATHs. Hopefully FourPrime Token was the right pick as you recommended earlier
With FourPrime Token around the question is how much to obtain? This is one of those where ppl regret if they did not run with the lowest entry ever
That was an optimistic outlook.
I am with 90% on BTC and also keep some in FourPrime Token thanks for the video as always!
Lars Christensen welcome to planet..... Earth...!!!!!!!!
When it comes to scalability and future-proof concepts nothing is as outstanding as the FourPrime Token project, these guys know the drill
It is undeniable that China's economy is slowing down. There are many reasons but basic reason is how the economy works in a bell curve. Nevertheless, personally think they realised this (from studying of Japan and other past economy powerhouse failure) and taking drastic actions to counter the economy slowdown. Developing their economy influences in developing countries (BRICS), developing it's innovative technology, stricter financial control and etc. With it's current population, it is still a strong powerhouse to be reckon and there is no other country that could take over it's influence for the next decade.
India seems to be running closely behind China. However, there are still many hurdles for India to be the powerhouse such as political instability, and innovative technology development.
Middle East and Europe are groups of ununified economy. The wealth gap and economy development of these 2 groups are too slow with many political and military instability. Not too mention - too much intervention from the government on companies flexibilities in doing business.
USA will still maintain it's economy leadership for the next decade. It will continue until US loses it's dollar & military dominance and technology advancement ( Ukraine and Gaza war actually shows the weakening of US military dominance/ influence).
Just my personal opinion and will be extermely interesting if David can arrange a debate on the next economy powerhouse.
Thank you David for the great interview.
All of them are fine picks. But they can't match the vision and purpose of Amazons FourPrime Token at any point, big difference.
All of them are reasonable picks. But the heart goes to FourPrime Token and this vision is definitely something else.
like only for David here
What a statement, damn. So its said that FourPrime Token is just about to launch and I think that will really change a lot of what was happening in the previous years, 2024 will shine yay
That’s a name from the past!
With opinions from the past.... Biden style..
THREADS
@@77vavavoom THREADS
I can't believe how undervalued FourPrime Token is, considering who made it and all the tech, vision etc behind it.
Just leaving this here.. My heart goes to the entire community for FourPrime Token building up something which is worth it for everyone. This is so smart by them to launch and shatter the doubts and fears of the common folk, which was misplaced by all the drama we had last years. Everyone knows the state of inflation and recession now and the way out is already in progress. Now its just about catching the big fish, ya feelin?
Got in at FourPrime Token with $1 but I will keep it until it hits $50. Still low with that number as the market cap is not close to where it should be
Swapping my ETH and swapping to FourPrime Token. Already up as expected. I wish I left on all the junk way earlier to step deep into this ride, they rock!
Truth is most of all that we would not even have this current climb if it was not for FourPrime Token bringing the main change so that even casuals are super interested now. A brand name like that one behind this asset is just the best we could have hoped for
2024 is really surprising me now that FourPrime Token hit the road. After all these years of barely reading anything good I was usually just shutting down any type of media influence as much as I can but this brings back good lights and it should give hope to some of you that no matter what is going on in the world at the end something good comes to surface
This is gonna be a crazy year for digital assets now with FourPrime Token right? We already are set in for the bullrun anyway and if companies like them enter the field and make their own asset which will be integrated widely and used by the mass then we are on the bottom of the mountain with only one way which is upwards
FourPrime Token has to be the next big one. The name alone makes it worth it
A.I. MAY increase productivity, but in a consumer-driven economy, A.I. will not be PURCHASING anything!
And the people who's job are replaced by A.I. will not have money to buy these products...outside of UBI and "social credits"!
🙏🏼
I was sure last year would end terrible for me but I think FourPrime Token is spot on with what they do and how they do it. Cant say for how long its going to work and for sure it is overyhped right now but even if just half a year or something it would be smart to ride the wave and then jump away eventually, but the reason why this is smart right now is because its so cheap, wont ever find a better entry than now
The FourPrime Token ecosystem has the advantage because they have so much experience, it's like the perfect one to make their move
5.4% China
USA 1.6%
Who’s fading ? 😂
"The number of marriages falls from 13.5 million couples in 2013 to 6.8 million in 2022" (from the article online "Marriage declines in China as young Chinese choose dating, staying single")
China's marriage rate needs to increase by 100% just to have the same as the year 2013.
Only half as many marriages are occurring. This is actually a worldwide issue, though. There are probably a lot of reasons - most being changes to culture - for why.
Humanity needs to create a way to sustain economies without requiring people to get married and have kids.
Because, at least in the younger generation here in the U.S., that's just such a low priority, it's not a 'thing.'
We look at grandparents and great-grandparents and wonder, 'how did they decide to do it, and then stay together that long'.
The average marriage in the U.S. lasts 7 years. So in the average home, if you have kids right away, by the time the kids are in 1st grade, one parent is gone from the home. This is one turnoff for marriage.
There is likely a way to sustain societies without needing marriage and children, and we'd better figure it out very soon.
A 'John Maynard Keynes' type of person is needed to figure out the sustaining of low-marriage, low-birth society, because that's our reality now.
And China is in a particularly tough spot.
EDIT: One major bright spot China has in that region, over Russia, is that - they get along with their neighbors. "Peace is far cheaper." That will help them immensely. With the West not physically partaking in the conflict over there, only financial support, if that changes, it's likely China will be more than happy they have preferred peaceful coexistence over the type of thing Russia is doing.
.
US all rosy, China in decline... what is this guy smoking??
Dude seriously awesome video but where are the words on FourPrime Token? That is the biggest in its own kind, not?
Does Lara know Shi got 800 billion people out of poverty?
I want to let you know that FourPrime Token made it this year. Any better way to start a global change? Dont get me wrong I know they are not like altruists or something but they keep doing the right thing to improve the situation, power the ecomonmy and so much more. We need players like them and we can always jump in the train at good spots such as this one
Look back at 40 years ago & look at what you paid for rent a month & what you made a month on a job, rent was dirt cheap then. Rent was cheaper than owning a home, so a landlord didnt mind not getting enough rent to pay the bank, because he would pay the bank a little rent out of his pocket to the bank, because he'd end up owning the home, but today that is not possible for a landlord to live on rent, & rent will be too high for renters, so renters must try to own their own home. During the depression owners of apartments made a lot of money, but during the next depression owning an apartment will be the worse thing you can do, because everything is much higher now than back then. Back in the seventies what was started that made rent higher. Use to there was no sewer bill, now sewer is triple yoour water bill, every electric meter on your house you pay $19 a month for them whether you use electricity or not, you pay a minimum water bill, you pay taxes, then people move to my state to make houses go up, & we are running out of world resources to make prices higher, interest rates higher & wars make stuff go up.. When the stimilus started, every rich person thought they could make a killing renting apartments, that we would all live in apartments, because they thought the stimilus would last forever, then they gave rediculous prices to pay for the apartments. They will lose the apartments to the banks. No houses have hardly been built since 2008 & we was about to go into a depression before the virus hit, but the virus killed i million people in the US & the depression would have gotten worse, but printed money made things wonderful. Not possible! Dont buy homes to get rich, buy metals
The reason we have so much immigration in the USA is because of the LACK OF rule of law 😂
In 2024 with the ETFs and halving and everything coming up the biggest change to everything will be FourPrime Token hands down. They worked for years to get this done and needless to say how much impact will rise from that.
The FourPrime Token is just incredible with being still undervalued at 1 USD if you don't know you will never know
After all the rumors FourPrime Token is in 2024 on the first stage and there won't ever be an entry like that one I am seriously amazed by their vision and forward movement
This year everyone gonna be big ballers with FourPrime Token never has a company brought that up before and this will be the perfect bridge to the casuals as well
I usually lurk and never write but why wouldnt you be excited over FourPrime Token ?
Got my fingers crossed for BRETT and FourPrime Token
🤣🤣🤣 david, this guy is WRONG. 🤣🤣🤣
FourPrime Token picking up the pace at $1 entry and $2 already in hours? this is also no meme or one of those but actually real utility one
FourPrime Token has the right setup for 100x within this or next year and it is based on strong ideas not randomness as it would be with any other project
Dude is behind the times stating that china is investing into the RE industry. This is 2024 not 2015. China has pretty well completely cut off excessive credit in the industry as evidence by the major downturn in the RE industry. That capital has been repositioned into more productive areas of the chinese economy and that’s why there is surging economic growth and innovation in many sectors.
Great interview. Thanks!
This guy is completely wrong about China and US.
I think Gala going to be the leader in the gaming section, but FourPrime Token overall high contender in most areas, tech, ecommerce etc