Brink Of Civil War? Economy Enter ‘Suffering Phase’, Threat Of Violence Real | Adrian Day
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- Опубліковано 19 чер 2024
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Adrian Day, President of Adrian Day Asset Management, discusses the the coming "suffering phase" for most people as interest rates stay higher for longer.
*This video was recorded on May 17, 2024
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0:00 - Intro
1:27 - Inflation
4:17 - Higher rates for longer
6:19 - Economic growth
13:42 - Labor market
16:00 - Fed monetary policy
18:00 - Ray Dalio's civil war prediction
23:00 - China sells U.S. treasuries
28:45 - Gold price recap
35:00 - Gold miners
41:19 - Gold price outlook
44:54 - Junior vs senior gold stocks
#stocks #investing #economy
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Do you think that the chances of a civil war in the U.S. are greater than 30%? Comment below and don't forget to subscribe!
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Lag Effects...especially of monetary policy are around 18 months.
Adrian Day is Brilliant he works For Peter Shiff . 👍👍👍👍
I believe the quote is more eloquent. "Very slowly at first and then all of a sudden!"
The quote is originally attributed to a young entrepreneur Mia Khalifa 🎉
@@adamtatusko "The Sun Also Rises" is the best piece of literature by ay Americsn author.
Like a mudslide
People getting mad over who wins the election as if these two old farts aren’t two sides of the same coin 💀
They are different on energy, regulation, public safety and taxes. Those matter.
@@jonEmontana It's rearranging deck chairs on the Titanic, overall regardless of policies, both will add to the National Debt and as a result of the expansion of debt, increase inflation. It's just favoritism by using debt, and that works until it doesn't. We're rapidly approaching the point that it doesn't.
If you believe Trump and Biden are two sides of the same coin, you're so numb to reality and so clueless that watching this type of video does you no good.
you see the trees...the rest alludes you.
@jonEmontana too bad they all serve the central bankers
You don't need an Oxford degree to understand that if you mindlessly give away money for ten years, encouraging people to go into debt, and then suddenly do the exact opposite, the country will go into disarray.
^ This. And both guys will claim that they have the solution when neither one of them saw it coming.
that is my problem... 1 truck with 200k, 1 car with 192k... I refuse to buy a vehicle at higher prices and high interest rates. I will keep fixing them.
I think we need to stop calling 5% interest rates high, just because they were lower than that for 20 years doesn't make 5% high..
The whole problem with the debt is people buying stuff with other peoples money, that needs to stop, and higher rates will stop it, but they need to be much higher than 5%.
I agree but our debt is so high it has a bigger impact unfortunately
The level of leveraging now versus 30 years ago makes 5% very, very high. Collapsing the housing markets to reset "traditional" rates and multipliers is not an option. The dollar would collapse.
Instead what we need to do is accept that things always do and always will change.
@@graemejones9707 but we should not want a bunch of people to live in crushing debt for years or even the rest of their lives.
As a South African, I am amused no end about people saying rates are high. My first house was bought at 19% interest rate. Your interest rates are pathetically low and the very cause of the mess your in right now.
@@JasperMulder100 And what was your salary and ratio of salary to loan? If people had listened to people like you 20 years "don't borrow high multiples" then they'd still be renting and homeless now!
Nothing will change, it will break again and rates will collapse again and stay near zero. The only way out is end of fiat or a debt jubilee
I do agree with Adrian and many others. Millions of people are very agitated politically and financially. Education and society are in a deep demise. No rules, no religious convictions. Yes a major awakening is in the making….
“It is well enough that people of the nation do not understand our banking and monetary system, for if they did, I believe there would be a revolution before tomorrow morning.”
― Henry Ford
One day I think we’ll have a recession. The next day I think we won’t. I’ve just resigned myself to expecting it will never happen. I’ll be working till I’m shipped out in a pine box, never retiring, and never owning a home. I haven’t given up but yet I have given up. But that’s what I get for being responsible and paying off both my degrees and my wife’s. There went my down payment on the house and now the homes cost a fortune to buy, pay taxes on, insure, and maintain. So screw it. Meanwhile people who make a fraction of what I earn have homes and are get bailed out left and right. Awesome country we have. This country seems pointless anymore. 😂
I understand your frustration....got friends that have massive mortgages and they're not worried....yet I cant buy as homes are so high
If you have no debt, and keep saving you will be in a stronger position especially if you buy gold miners. JIMO. In a similar position to you.
It's the start of a huge depression. It will be necessary to work for longer but there will be more unemployment, so there will be a huge increase in poverty.
never ever give up , you will get your house . This nonsense will end .
Literally, the same situation we're in. A buddy at work bought a $500k house when rates were 3.5%. His mortgage is something like $1800/mth. We have been looking and made an offer on a house for $415K. Didn't get it, as we did not opt to waive the appraisal gap. Our payment would have been $2700 at 6.5%. Crazy, and depressing. Of course, like the other commentor, we will continue to save and position ourselves well, sure, but it is frustrating to say the least. I suppose patience is paramount.
Phenomenal interview. Worth listening to this all the way through.
people need to wake up and realize politics is theatre. stop giving it your energy
Barrick has stated their focus is in Copper moving into 2024.
First economist that I have heard from that strikes me as understanding the economy of the US population in total. Wealthy are doing fantastic. All the people living in gated neighborhoods and chatting in the executive suites have a very myopic view of the overall economy…Bottom 1/3r to 1/2 of people quality of life ranges from just hanging on to down right struggling.
Potential for unrest increases proportionally to the widening gap between the haves and the have nots. In the past the “solutions” to these inequalities can be downright frightening.
I totally agree with both of you guys about Asia are buying gold like crazy and in Vietnam all my neighborhood are buying it and they no taxes here when you buy gold 🪙 and it very easy to buy gold here 😊
what kind do they buy? coins or jewelry?
@@user-im6fy4qp6m they buy one oz bare gold or one oz rings gold 🪙
1@@user-im6fy4qp6m
they buy the fake stuff. lots of it out there
We is doomed... Janet Yellen and Jerome Powell are killing off the poor peeps.
Totally agree with Adrian's analysis...thank you both. -Leslie
Be debt free, have an emergency fund of 6 months expenses, invest your money, run debt free business (real Estae) pay your house off quickly. If you do this you are fine. Also do some prepping, grow a garden ect..
70% pay check to paycheck with debt raising the fastest ever. 😂
The “civil war” movie seemed like a soft threat.
Copper is out of control. This will drive the economy over the cliff. 😮
It's what happens when you underinvest in such a necessary commodity. Thank the Bureaucracy .
Awesome !
-
Accelerate !
Buy gold and copper producers then.
Lower rates to ZERO again so you can WEALTH TRANSFER the rest of the Wealth to the very TOP!!
The rich love high interest rates because they are rentiers. They own the banks and whatever little they have in the bank pays high interest, so even though they themselves are the people who pay that interest the net result is lots of money for themselves. The fed wants to keep inflation high because then it's easier to pay back loans if you have trillions of largely worthless dollars floating around, like Germany post WW2.
No. Raise rates for top 20%, lower them for bottom 60%. Permanently tie the min wage and SS payments to the real inflation rate. Raise both to compensate for past inflation rates and tie SS to needs test. All wealth past $52k/yr is taxed at the earned rate and is subject to all federal taxes including SS taxes. This includes individuals and businesses. Unearned income can be taxed more than earned but never less. Let inflation, massive tax increases, and dedollarization reduce the drastic, third world wealth disparity that deficit spending and reserve status have created.
David really had to sell a pen LOL
Sponsored by Wolf of Wall Street
The minimum wage is immune to inflation. It is failed to keep up with inflation for over 50 years.
Have you looked at what democrats are doing on the border? Why do you think wages are low at the low end ?
The huge difference is the cost of everything
David’s hair rules!
Another great conversation! Thanks!
David.. always listen.... great information... thx .❤
Great guest. Thank you both very much !!!
Has anyone started combining these market ratios with crypto data? Ive always felt like i could see the future of stocks by watching btc. I rarely pay attention to the stock market but I keep my eye on bitcoin whie actively trading all the time and I always find myself saying well this is different right before something big happens in the stock market. I give Bitcoin credit for the soft Landing. Not the Federal Reserve....I've engaged in active trading and managed to grow a nest egg of around 2.3Bitcoin to a decent 24Bitcoin....At the heart of this evolution is Francine Duguay, whose deep understanding of both cryptocurrency and traditional trading has been instrumental. Her holistic approach to investment and commitment to staying abreast of market trends make her an invaluable ally in navigating this new era in cryptocurrency investment.
Thanks for keeping it light and real at the same time. Much needed for us traders in times like these!
The internet is filled with so many useful information about Francine Duguay crypto….
This is why it is advisable to connect with a true market strategist in order to avoid missing such opportunity and maintain steady gains.
She appears to be well-educated and well-read. I ran a Google search on her name and came across her website; thank you for sharing.
I read about her too on the website. That is how I get connected to her. Thanks for putting this down here
David your interviews are great, with such a diversity of excellent guests. I also really enjoy your direct style of interviewing, very little fluff and straight to business.
What the hand does the mind remembers.
~ Maria Montessori
GREAT guest !!!!
Stellar job David Lin on this MOST useful and informative interview !!!
The huge difference today is the globalization is not there anymore also.
Thanks for continuing to have great and very interesting conversations with old men... Who are articulate and have a lot to say based on their experience. Providing a large variety of perspectives is so informative.
Great interview David, and well, Adrian makes it easy. He is in a class of his own when it comes to thoughtful answers that don't go off on a tangent, and he is always very aware of the most recent events and investing environment.
If it was just a few months of inflation that's one thing, but when it's years of inflation and that higher cost continues it gets more and more and more of a strain on the budget. It keeps stealing more and more of your money or it will put you more and more into debt .
31:00 GLD, gdx. Western consumers not buying gold, but eastern countries are 35:00 gold miner stocks still hugely discounted
David is doing a basic marketing HR interview with the PEN!
Another great interview...we need more people to understand what drives inflation, the markets ..why gold is important
Jewelers don't benefit from higher gold prices they profit from sales and making charges if retail is down how is anyone benefit
Sigh, to sell the house before the election before i get stuck in a place i don't want to be. Or not to sell and lose the interest rate and cheap mortgage. Stressful year and time is ticking..
Me too, what to do?
imo, plan to sell house before end of 2028. That's my plan, likely 2026.
@@genestone4951 yeah could be right. I just do my best to put as little $ as possible into anything that isn’t structural or increases the value. It’s super bare inside lol. What gives you that timeline though?
Great interview, enjoyed Mr. Day's insight .
Good review
32:17 more people are calling to sell gold than buy isn't because of lack of interest, it's because people need money right now to make ends meet.
Most people who own gold aren't the type to sell it for food... think about that.
Most people are stupid.
When the yield curve un-inverts, history has shown all hell breaks loose.
Been tracking Revux's development. Impressed with the progress!
Watching this interview with Adrian made my Day!
Is Adrian A Day Trader?
Who’s the star, of this interview David. CNBC has nothing on David.
Sell me this pen, David.
That guy knows gold
Excellent!! Program!
Great content
Thank you gentlemen.
Why isn't principle on the national debt being paid down?
Hmmm
Thank you for the hope and inspiration about the future of the economy!😬🥴
Revux's impact on payment could be revolutionary. Glad to be in early!
Revux's team is top-notch. Expecting big developments soon!
Love this.
DIMON is just another way to write DEVIL
Just increased my holdings in Revux. Feeling confident about this one!
100% tarrifs on foreign EV's sounds inflationary.
Revux's roadmap looks promising. Exciting times ahead!
The South will rise again!
What do you guys think of the hover pen ?
What's the prediction for reaction to SSI cuts?
Short term I don't think it will happen. Long term it's going to happen. At a minimum slower growth, higher age requirements, higher SSI taxes.
You want to be in sales huh? Sell me this pen. David: "Hold my beer"
Adrian one day or another gold will go up above it's inflation adjusted ATH
"Sell me this pen"
Wolf of wall street
Perhaps the government could reduce spending severely add remaining with the current interest rate for a period of 10 years would squash inflation totally , the key is to reduce spending
If government reduces spending the it will put the economy into recession, which will lower tax receipts and paradoxically increase the size of the deficit …which is inflationary.
People getting sick of the fact that people out here having to choose between getting a broken tooth pull that hurts bad or fit their family.
Credit rates… other consumers credit facilities are going to go up even with no more hikes and even with rate cut. Credit is going to be continental will go up even with Fed Reserve is dismantling
There will be a caretaker government because both candidates will be on life support😮
I always skip your ads. Don't do it. We skip it. We don't watch them.
He has got to make money for the free content he provides.
David using topix spray on hair?
Seems like a thicker tuft
Might have to get that pen!🤔
WELL, SUFFERING IN USA MEANS PEOPLE ARE DRINKING MCDONALD COFFEE INSTEAD OF STARBUCKS COFFEE... HARDLY MAKES ANY DIFFERENCE
Not at all. .
Not this time brother
Costco has some pretty good organic coffee, too. 10 dollars a bag only.
Americans are spoiled. We just don’t know it.
Back when McDonald's had $1 coffee, it was really good. I was a well balanced medium/ dark roast with a good flavor. Then it changed. I think maybe around 2017 or so, they changed it up. I dont dei k it everyday, so if you only have it every fre months you can notice the difference. Starbucks has always tasted like a burnt dark roast coffee, with washed out flavor. Initial dark roast taste but no real flavor. This is why all their money comes from blended drinks.
These predictions are ridiculous. We could be at 2500 be end of week lol. Predicting 3000-4000 this year far more realistic. No way this rally is even close to being over.
I LOVE writing my hand. Pens= brilliant!
Presale investments have been my go-to, and Revux is my latest pick. Early birds catch the worm!
"Sell me this pen".
- Today's sponsor to David.
Mr Twain how did you go broke? At first slowly and very very gradually and then suddenly and all-at-once!
The almost certain scenario, if you have even a basic understanding of history and human nature, is that things will not improve and return to some semblence of normality under the existing monetary system we have. It will deteriorate further and further until the pain is so great that the alternative is better, and a new monetary system will come into effect. Drug addicts dont turn towards religion or go to rehab halfway down the spiral towards meltdown, they hit rock bottom and have nowhere else to go but up or death.
Is the pen ad some sort of a joke on "sell me this pen" challenge?
cvl wr?
i wish, but the left and right are in a dom/sub relationship, respectively.
The Chinese bond sale is cyclical. Heavy for the cycle, yes, but within norms unless and until it extends to next year, Q2 or so.
Maybe we should let the market decide what the cost of money is? Crazy, I know. 😊
All markets are rigged. The only reason to have a market is to rig it.
Great video. Thanks Adrian and David, this is one of the most useful insights I have heard in awhile. Strong dollar and elections are going to dampen gold, but when it comes alive again, that means it too late to stop it
David, why would you have a conversation about gold and not bring up Bitcoin? Are their rules in these interviews?
Hoverpen is cool. Like that it is refillable.
government wants inflation. It is an effective tax increase for the poor (more income to tax with less wealth)
David, ur video's title says something but Copper n Silver prices says something else :/
What's going on with Costco selling 200 million dollars of gold bullion
Trivael.
pens?
No worries. The S&P 500 is balling outa control 🙂👍
The pen 😂😂😂
The fact you’re trying to sell me a pen just shows that this discussion is for boomers only
Dave please you need to have Jeff Rubin on your show! He just put a new book out A Map of the New Normal. Is vision and knowledge is outstanding!
In the next bull run, keep an eye on DOT, VRA, and SOL, but don't overlook Revux's RVX
The constant crises of capitalism 🙄
Have been hearing since the last 2 years that Economy is in suffering phase, yet the asset prices keep on going up including the risky one's and people are fine. One day we will see recession but no body can predict it.