Try telling that to his fellow extinction rebellion leader Gail Bradbrook who defends her right to eat meat by declaring herself a Pagan and then ask them about their refusal to condemn animal agriculture, and it's part in the ongoing extinction of numerous species all over the globe. These people are hypocrites and delusional crackpots with no real answer to a problem that they don't seem to have a proper grasp on.
I`m english but lived out my life in Australia in the tropics , yes we have winter but always more like your summer , we used to have maybe 0 or - 0 a couple of days or broken up over a week or two . But this has receded over the last 10 years to the point of last year and this winter just gone , We Didn't Have A Winter . Today is the 6th day of spring and it`s 36deg , this is normally a mid summer temp . I`m a firm believer that it may be too late over here .
@eileen MAIZE Carey In the US and in other Western countries the Pro Life issue is used by Politicians solely to secure a voter base. As you will know most established political parties are corrupted by Corporate money, and the politicians solely serve their paymasters. The NorthWestern University did a study into the past decade of US legislation and it's beneficiaries. All of it served the Corporates, zero benefited the common voter. So that is why they champion such issues as Pro Life as it's a cover issue, to fool the public.
Why does any species reproduce? Do people have children? Does a bear shit in the woods? Woorying aboat reproduction is total nonsense while industrial society destroys the natural world.
This is a hell of a talk Roger... pays to listen to it every few months to remind ourselves we aren't dreaming. To remind ourselves this is real, absolutely real. We New Zealanders think or believe we live on Planet B. It's a mixture of deliberate social policy to keep the population ignorant of the facts and articles in the Guardian that say NZ is the safest country on the planet. We are living in a dream. Action is all that is left to us in the extreme short term to change the system, change our thinking and attitudes, and get busy on a WW2 footing to save something of the living world, and some of our kids and grandkids.
Mr. Hallam's sentiment is pretty much true. I support this movement based on the analysis of one of these founder. People will not see things until the moment it happened to them. What we have is a "run-away train" with regards to CO2 emmission. The north pole Arctic and southpole Antarctica is shedding its ice faster than what is recorded in history. Desertification is growing fast despite the effort of Kyoto protocol in merchandising carbon footprints through reforestation. The problem lies in growing population in search of pastures and farms, like in Brazil where a third of the rain forest had already disappeared for farms, and offsetting that lost is pretty much impossible. There is a glimpse of hope - the massive reforestation along the Sahara dessert in Africa to combat famine, poverty, and mass migration had already began 10 years ago, the only problem is that the world had turn off the tap in these mega-project due to unknown reason.
Late evening before last, I walked my dog to the top of a hill partially overlooking the Pennines and North West of England, including the Wirral and Cheshire as far as the Welsh mountains. While ascending, I was struck by the most unusual intermittent waves of heat that moved across the land, and through us. I felt the energy of the world forests and felled trees of recent time dissipating, and a strong sense of what is to come. People of society everywhere have no real idea of what is to come, of what the lies have done to their children let alone grandchildren, especially those who choose not yet to feel these things, but to think money, medicine, modern chemical and machine is going to save any of us is a wishful and non practical delusion; those things, actions and attitudes are what have brought us to this BRINK. I've been ignored and laughed at while warning at least everyone in my home town, since I awoke to truth that we are on the brink of no return for the past 28 years. The suffering of the many have not yet begun, but it will, while I witness with regrettable disappointment as so many continue to cause the 'ship' to sink; it will be slow and increasingly disturbing. 26/08/2019
@Jota Rider thanks for sharing. I'm aware of thermals, felt them before, though I couldn't compare them to those I mentioned. My senses intuitive reading of any kind of energy have for 52 years proven correct. The intermittent tide-like waves of thick energetic heat came strong and felt to pass through us. The hill a mere gradient of 200 - 210 above sea level, overlooking the planes of Cheshire, and the Wirral being coastal. Here we are open to all weather coming in from the Atlantic, from Europe and Africa weather tends to move through Southern England just before it reaches us.
We've been on the brink of no return for 28 years? It not having happened yet hasn't shaken your conviction at all has it? One might conclude that your feelings on the matter are immune to any data that contradicts your opinion. If you were waiting for the 2nd coming of Jesus for the last 28 years everybody would know you were nuts. Your views are just as flexible and just as based on reason and scientific fact as all those Jesus folk waiting for Armageddon. You said it yourself. You could feel the "intermittent waves of heat". You "felt the energy of the world forests and felled trees" and had a "strong sense of what is to come." One doesn't even need to offer a counter argument against someone like yourself. You seem to credit yourself with supernatural perception and godlike powers of prediction. If every global warming alarmist was as willing to reveal themself to be as bonkers are you clearly are this debate would be a lot more fun and over much sooner. IN SHORT, YOU ARE MY HERO, CARRY ON.
If I had had this talk as my intro to XR, I could have circumvented all the petty attitudes of local do-gooders who took up 'leadership' roles in local XR groups. This talk by Roger is probably ranking in on e of the most influencial and important talks in the history of humanity. It inspires me.
Trying to find a technological "solution", as in geoengineering, will only deter from the real problem, exponentially rising greenhouse gases. The painful truth is that there is no solution other than reducing our emissions drastically and now.
19 minutes of this talk, from 10:56 to 30:00 should be being broadcast on every major TV channel every day at prime time. If that happened, we wouldn't have a few million protesters coming out on a Friday to march. Instead, we'd have the global revolution we need.
@Muso Snoop LOL. I'm the guy who's a victim of psychological warfare, says the guy who has somehow become convinced that 97% of the world's scientists and 99.99% of the world's climate scientists are lying to us.
If eating less meat is important to slowing climate change and we are in a climate crisis, then eat no meat at all. We can't be risking it this impending disaster with just a little bit of action.
@@palomawoma Unfair logic. You compare two unsatisfying outcomes. Anyone who agrees on the urgency agrees that MAXIMUM EFFORT must be the goal. If you tell people "eat less meat" a small percentage of them with do a little effort. If we decide collectively to forbid raising cattle and killing cattle then everyone goes vegan at once. And the result is huge. And we get a standing chance to survive. The time for lukewarm, slow change over decades is over. The talk was about changes in WEEKS.
@@assezzen194 No, you create a black market. Education and patience whilst people adjust to change is better. In my opinion, obviously you are free to believe otherwise :)
@@assezzen194 The way I am seeing it is, we have to be honest about what can solve our climate crisis. If enough people "go vegan" we can do it. If not enough do, we can't. We do not know the exact number. It is not work risking all the animals and our lives. We need to help people see and feel good about the solution. helping those that need changing habits or careers. It difficult for people to change quickly, but in this case, Id' say we need to stop the Arctic from melting in three to five years. How many can we get see that going vegan will have dramatic results. I agree with you we can't "ban eating meat". I agree with you, " The time for lukewarm, slow change over decades is over."
Removing aerosols: agupubs.onlinelibrary.wiley.com/doi/full/10.1002/2017GL076079 CO2 lag is just radiative imbalance. More about it and also aerosl masking here: www.giss.nasa.gov/research/briefs/hansen_16/ If you want to recalculate radiative forcings to temperature use the climate sensitivity: 0.75 Centigrades / Wm-2
When I lived in PZ we dumped tons of waste from the beaches in front of the council offices to highlight dirty beaches and eventually they listened but it took time.....but it worked......disruption and attention works
That's so cool! I hope such action works in other places in the world. I think we're going to need a crap load of people willing to engage in civil disobedience for this to work.
Like fuck has it worked - it didn’t make a shit of difference, further to which much of what you dumped was ‘collected’ to create a stunt, no further follow up, no further progress.
The most comprehensive and knowledgeable speeches I’ve ever heard on the subject....should be required listening at all universities, to start! Thank you Roger !
@@steve-r-collier Talk to scientists who have studied this for almost 72 years if you think he's "brainwashed". Facts are facts, and no amount of vitriol or ignorance on your part will change this.
Roger - excellent talk. I’m in. You’ve made the case for disruption. I’m ready to disrupt. Now where I live in Golden, Colorado, USA, I need to gather a group and figure out how to get started....
Thanks for this great, inspiring and entertaining speech, said it all! I happen live in "the tropics" you mentioned. As a close spectator of the massive looting of natural resources, destruction of primary forests and its biodiversity can only back you that true, real and determined action will stop this utter madness!
I find some people's responses to ER quite bizarre. I'm talking about those folk that complain about the methodology; it's almost as though they are living in a parallel world, whereby they are trying to 'get on with their lives' whilst Extinction Rebellion is doing its best to make their lives difficult. We are all living on the same planet. A planet which is being put under intolerable pressure by our activity; if we don't act now, ER's actions will be entirely insignificant in comparison to what we'll face as a species.
Introduction: Farmer to Rebellion leader 00:00 3:00 Rich guy contacts XR: "Whatever it takes" 4:20 COP organizer wants XR to cause chaos at COP 5:45 BBC journalist phones XR and gives advice on how to effectively blockade parliament 6:25 XR is growing exponentially because people are shitting themselves 7:50 You can know about climate change without REALLY feeling it The climate science 9:50 Climate change has killer facts. It's not complicated 11:00 Killer fact 1: By 2022 there will be no permanent ice left in the arctic = chaos 13:33 Killer fact 2: 2 degrees increase is already locked in due to carbon lag, global dimming, the carbon emitted by the soil, etc. 17:00 Thats 4 degrees in the middle of continents -> cant grow grains reliably -> starvation 17:17 Killer fact 3: CO2 concentrations are going up faster and faster. Now at 415ppm. Gonna be at 450 within 10 years -> 2 degrees locked in 19:55 Social collapse: Starts with no welfare payments, then schools shutdown, then hospitals can't function. No food = starvation 21:50 20% crop yield decrease in North America, Europe and Russia in 2018 22:25 Jem Bendell's Deep Adaptation paper: jembendell.com/2019/05/15/deep-adaptation-versions/ 25:13 Millions of refugees -> War -> Your kids being sent to be slaughtered 27:45 Nonlinear dynamics example: Wet bulb effect en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Wet-bulb_temperature#Wet-bulb_temperature_and_health Social Science: There's something we can do about it 30:13 32:00 Erica Chenoweth (3.5% rule): ua-cam.com/video/YJSehRlU34w/v-deo.html 33:04 Mass participation civil disobedience can radically change the political direction of a society in a short amount of time PERIOD. 36:15 Why civil disobedience works: Disruption and sacrifice Civil Disobedience (Tell the truth and act as if the truth is real) 40:13 42:20 Independent action: Flying drones at Heathrow airport 43:35 First story: Salt march (Gandhi) 46:20 Freedom Riders (Civil rights movement) 49:35 Children's march (Civil rights movement) 52:35 King's College fossil fuel divestment campaign 59:04 XR April 15th rebellion 1:02:12 3 Reasons people choose to get arrested and/or go to prison: 1. People are simply terrified 1:03:00 2. It's an act of conscience 1:04:34 3. It's an adventure! 1:07:34 Going to prison: A closer look 1:10:13 In Egypt: Prison = Torture. Not in Britain.. yet 1:11:30 Going through what it means to get arrested in Britain 1:13:37 Going through what it means to go to prison in Britain 1:19:14 The only people who are going to do something about the climate crisis are ordinary people 1:23:27 "The greatest fear we have is not the fear of the powerful, but the fear of our own power. The fear that we could actually make a difference." *REBEL FOR LIFE!!*
This estimate of 0.7 degrees of global cooling due to effects on solar radiation of industrial emissions - the so-called global dimming - is wildly uncertain - a fact that has been highlighted by the IPPC reports for decades. Switching off the cooling could amount to half as much global warming again as already seen (half a degree) or it could result in very little global average temperature increase at all. In the absence of more certainty, the precautionary principle applies - assume it could be the worse case.
Matt W Global dimming is the least of your problems. It's not Increasing temperatures, nor sea level rise, nor warmer oceans, nor severe weather, nor desertification, nor the migrations of millions, it's what comes from left field that will finish off mankind. UA-cam James G. Anderson Harvard professor of Atmospheric Chemistry, and listen carefully to what he has to say about Climate Structures. Then you can start worrying about what else you have never heard of that is going to kill you and everyone you know.
comprehensive, chronological, and inescapable. Thanks for the Face Punch, i thought this was non-violent. I think i shall complain Unfortunatly i am now labelled a threat so i will probably get arrested
Perhaps someone can enlighten me, if we already have 3.5°C warming locked in, then what the hell are we fighting for? Our children not having a horrible death is unavoidable at this level. What is the best case scenario the movement is trying to achieve?
Nonsense.Climate change has always been part of the worlds evolution. If you want something to demonstrate about that is truely important to the future stability of our future its the release of Tommy Robinson illegally imprisoned .Islam is the greatest threat to our way of life within the next ten years.Not climate change.
True, but water vapor is. This is the true driver of raising the GLOBAL avg Temp increase. They hydrological cycle has been disregulated because of all the military weather modification and particles in the air. It has created a thermal blanket, keeping heat in. Plus all the Stratospheric Atmospheric Injection formulas they use destroy ozone, so now the sun burns hotter.
@@rogerwoodhouse7945 Climate change is really Global levelling. Leveling is what they've been doing since they murdered the Romanovs. They quickly did some leveling right across Europe to remove the family's with wealth and favour in the local community, who they knew would not agree with their plans. The few who escaped this slaughter did so by siding with the enemy, the likes of VW and Siemens. Not happy with that they've been across the world levelling and even Mr Blair did he's bit. Steal the gold, flatten the cities to make sure they can't rise again. The same process is being used by the EU and UN. The UN Climate policy according to a senior boss is nothing to do with the Climate, its purpose is to keep the poor poor, by taxation. Meanwhile at grass roots level, over 20 European countries have had their wealth spirited away, a wage reduction has hit millions and all caused by migration and the countries have been loaded with super high debt levels. As a condition of joining, you can't have the wealth to be able to rise again as an individual country. The plan is a sustainable, global pay, global rules, one world government, Corporate Socialism.
It will happen like this... One day, after another warm winter and another unbeatable hot humid summer, utility failures and food shortages will become the norm. Persisting without end, way past the three years of failed harvests. Shops become steadily emptied of the basics, then the luxuries, people become irrational, then violent, then killers. Food, electricity, gas, will just stop, then the fuel will run out. Those with renewable energy, stored food, drink will become targets, Then you realize there is no more police, no government, no healthcare, no TV broadcasts, no trustworthy news. In the apocalypse, it’s recorded propaganda 24/7. Without pay, people will go rogue on mass. Disperse into the countryside. Famine, flood, fire, heat, drought, disease, storms, surges, resource wars & civil breakdown will together wreak havoc on all aspect of civil society. The ‘mad scramble’ of carbon capture & renewable energy monopoly is too little, too late to retain civilization as you recognize it now, Man will survive in isolated pockets of survivable, defendable enclaves. I used to believe 2B (billion) might survive, leaving 8B dead. Now I believe barely a few hundred million might survive worldwide a hundred years from now. To be clear- that’s 10B early painful, distressing human deaths. Within a human lifetime into the next century.
The billions spent on Space exploration, searching for planets capable of sustaining human life, would be better spent on healing our sickly planet Earth which is yearning for our support.
I can't believe this hasn't had more views. I don't know how to do this, but could it (or parts of it) be made into an audio podcast? That way it might be something that helps get the message out?... Especially to counter the inevitable mainstream media backlash in Sept 2020.
As long as they feed us all when the times of starvation and social collapse come, prison doesn't sound that bad (and maybe even safer than being outside!)
The US already has 1% of there population in prison. You talk about Gulag. Gulag never was this big, even 30% of the population moved from villages to cities in 10 years. You will have social unrest with this scale of social change.
When I was a kid here in Adelaide (70s & 80s), it got to 40ºC once every few years. Now it gets to 40º EVERY SINGLE year, usually many times, and the peak we've hit is 46ºC.
Bethany Hunt. Sorry Bethany that would be my fault. I turned the heating up because I live in Scotland and it’s always Baltic cold here and I’m sure this Hallam guy is a stand up comedian. Everybody seems to be laughing at his jokes. Oh no the Artic is melting! It’s been melting for the last 10,000 years. London was under 2,000 feet of ice 10,000 years ago.
All 3 situations, i.e., the Salt March in India, Civil Rights march in Alabama and the women's suffragettes in the UK and US have not resulted in a significant ecological, dare I utter, spiritual change. Yet we still have and support the rejigged neoliberal capitalist system. Nothing short of a full collapse will ever give the citizenry the space needed to tackle these enormous structural polices. Ou lot as both human & Being.
What the paper called? ( 22:25 ) I googled around a bit and found one called Deep Adaptation: A Map for Navigating Climate Tragedy by Jem Bendell. Is that the one?
Funnily enough it was in PZ where I started campaigning on the climate...about 1988, and then apart from doing aid work in Africa took no more planes since then.I went to China in 1989 by train ..great trip. We have moved an inch since the 80's and whether or not we have time to stop the rot is debatable. XR is the last throw of the dice in my opinion.
Does anyone know the Harvard scientist Roger references who discovered the hole in the ozone? My google search came up with 3 British scientists; Joe Farman, Brian Gardiner and Jonathan Shanklin. Could not find one from Harvard.
The people who discovered the Ozone Hole are Mario J Molina, who was at MIT but is retired, and F. Sherwood Rowland, who is deceased. James Anderson does ozone research at Harvard and I'm guessing that's who he means. www.seas.harvard.edu/directory/janders. Need to get those facts straight!! (Like 6 of seven billion of us dad? By which projection?)
Roger Hallam bases his non-violence theory on a study which showed that non paramilitary or guerilla mass movements were more effective. However these 'peaceful' movements were not passive in the way XR strives to be, they involved plenty of confrontation, rioting and fighting back, they just didn't involve organised armed struggle to any large extent. You don't have to take up arms to have a spiky street presence with the ability to defend itself and slow down or hamper the actions of the state in stopping it - in fact it's exactly what you need if you are going to genuinely disrupt capital and move beyond the kind of spectacle that XR are very good at, but which is clearly not really troubling the state.
Great work Roger and gang! This is one of the best talks I've heard on the subject, maybe the best! I will share as much as I can and try to help from Pa. (US).
When he adds up predicted temperature increase from lag etc; 3.6 + human activity, it adds up to 6.3 degrees locked in warming? 3.6 + 2.7. Is that right? Is that locked in then?
Great seminar! It takes a while to get to the real premise. But the first half hour's setting up? Is seriously necessary - too few people talk about the depth of damage we're doing.
From a caring citizen, i say that a proposal be written, backed up bye a petition and put to congress that the proposal address climate change and to implement renewable energy and addressing that government subsides solar panels to Australia and beyond.And to but forth ,it is the governments role to take care of the welfare of it's voting citizens, MR RECYCLE
I didn't listen to the social science because WG1 climate science is what I've studied for a decade. Roger is correct on his global temperatures (I do the actual detailed study/calculation intensively) and Roger is incorrect only on his Arctic Ocean sea ice latent heat effect at 12:40. I had also assumed latent heat effect causes ocean warming (I calculated 10 w/m**2 annual average) but it turns out only Arctic Ocean albedo reduction causes ocean warming (a paper came out ~3 weeks ago) and when I pondered it properly I realized that the summer warming effect of no ice to melt is balanced exactly by the winter cooling effect of no ice being formed (ice releases heat as it forms) so over the full year it's a wash (no change). Arctic Ocean albedo reduction causes +0.82 degrees of extra global warming when there's no sea ice at all on the Arctic Ocean. However, +0.19 degrees of extra global warming when there's no sea ice at all on the Arctic Ocean has already happened since the 1970s (it's been a +ve feedback for 40 years) so there's +0.63 degrees of extra global warming from Arctic Ocean sea ice loss still to come before that's all finished (which Roger did not mention along with his correct +0.7 plus +0.7 for climate lag and the net loss of global dimming - soot on snow). The Chinese will decide on this matter of how much future global warming because the U.S. Americans are a totally fucking useless navel-gazing bunch of greedy arse holes, as you've all had clearly shown to you if you haven't been asleep for the last 12 years.
Your claim is physically incorrect. Yes, Ice creation emits heat, at 0C. Ice clear arctic with warm-up water much higher than this, increasing heat transfer to air much more. Water much better in transferring heat than ice, which mostly put it into saltwater under Ice. This simple physic makes me doubt your claim. One more Oil paid to believe that everything will be alright. Using typical old Mackeavelian debate trick, agree with some premice in order to undermind general conclusion.
Who, me? Get arrested? Perhaps get beat up? Go to prison? You know? I really hate going around trying to get signatures on the Clean the Darn Air petition (have you signed yet?), but hey; at least I'm not getting arrested. Who knows though. It might come to that. It might come to that when I realize that everything I cherish is going out the window anyway.
Not really because projections are for the averages over a few years, not for 1 month, so the trend is not indicated at all by a just a few weeks. Lost way more than average of the last 20 years this year though. Maybe 50-70% more. We don't know yet until late September.
@@grindupBaker I do understand that it was the European heat wave moving over Greenland, so it could be seen as anomalous, but I do think that it is at least concerning. I personally find it very depressing. It does limit the amount of hope that I have for the health of the planet.
@@howmathematicianscreatemat9226 I am mainly just a newsgeek and therefore a doomer. I don't have enough scientific statistical background to feel comfortable making a guess, because my guess would not be sufficiently educated.
"I will not kill" is another complicated and messy application of self-control. You have to change personal behaviours you've inherited from the "belief, faith, hope and trust" in empirical/religious and ordinary impositions, based on Actuality. We have to put the life of the actual Methodology and knowledge into a system of self-sacrificial death, (life evolves in death), based on assumptions, lies and false promises of an "afterlife". All things are connected, here-now-forever, in one universal being that we represent individually, by a pulsed, integrated wave-package in the Universal Hologram. We amount to the mechanical equivalent of an idea, which is the solidified version of what has been assumed to be "Soul", mind in body, and "skin in the game" means that the embodiment of intentional concepts is either on the positive side of average participation in the culture, or a soulless psychopathology needing a better education. So the Golden Rule applies, using the gift of observational scientific in-form-ation memory, is probability cubed mathematically speaking, you have to be yourself ..what you expect from others ..and optimize your awareness of holistic Actuality. (Act in haste, repent at leasure, or, Optimal integration is the evolutionary survival mechanism, we have access to the rhythms of Shakespearean history) The legal implications of making a mistake against your own conscience, is that you become an instant victim of "the system" ready to take advantage of your "weaknesses", such as believing in the fraudulent authority and faked intentional policies of liars. You have to work it out for yourself from first principles as soon as you're old enough to think.
Is it by the Russian scientist studying the melting of the permafrost? I think the permafrost is giving off methane- 4 times the effect of carbon in the air.
I am asking myself which fear is greater: The fear of life unsustainable. Vs. The fear of prison. I gotta say, I fear for my child moreso than my fatass every day of the week. It's taken me months to actually listen to this movement. It's painful. There are critics. It's emotional. Somewhat squishy. It feels vulnerable. I was begging to work for the oil fields in my region just to be able to afford painting in my free time. That now feels like a moral crime and an unacceptable course of action.
I understand your dilemma, but the fear of life unsustainable is worse. You have the opportunity to take the RIGHT side in the most important moral struggle humanity has ever known. We will judged for thousands of generations to come for what we do NOW. Do the right thing and you will be remembered with honour!
I live in the San Juan basin and there are XR activists out of Santa Fe. I hope to make a connection there and see if the local "Frack Free" group might like to increase their numbers. We'll see how the conversation goes. First off, though, I need to buy the handbook. I can't risk jail (yet) because I have a kindergartener and her father is dead. But some of these protests (the Irish one in particular) are brilliant in their performances. The Navajo have the indigenous flare of dance and song and I don't think it'll be much of a stretch considering the local Chaco Canyon protests. I tell you this as not only a response to your encouragement, but brainstorm as well. Connecting these communities seems to be the biggest challenge here.
@@magsmart Please read my comment - I myself have a good grasp of the papers and sources including the Bendell paper. I was recommending that XR and others always include citations and sources //so we can share this with others to strengthen and spread//. If you ask a lot of people why they don't support XR it will be because they think XR is exaggerating the severity of the crisis and therefore non-scientific. The solution to that is to always bring strong citations and science. Keep in mind we need to grow the movement and bring more people in and that means making the science as accessible and available as possibly.
Here's How the "Greenhouse Effect" Works (my 6th great explanation method of the same thing). Suppose there's average 345 w/m**2 of downwelling LWR radiation into the surface and 199 w/m**2 of LWR radiation heading up from the top of the troposphere. Just Suppose. The LWR is manufactured by collisions of infrared-active "Greenhouse Gas" molecules in the troposphere. The fact that the total of 345+199 = 544 w/m**2 isn't split evenly into 272 w/m**2 of downwelling LWR radiation each into the surface and out of the troposphere top means there's a "Greenhouse Effect" from those gases in the troposphere and an obvious measure of "Greenhouse Warming Effect Factor" is 345/199-1 because if they were both 272 then Factor would be 0.000 and if there was more heading up than into the surface then the Factor would be -ve (it would be a cooling Effect). ------ So suppose I calculate how much more GHGs I need to get 1 w/m**2 extra of global heater Earth's energy budget imbalance (EEI) and mix those GHGs in the troposphere with a big spoon and INSTANTLY 2 things happen: - LWR radiation heading up from the top of the troposphere drops from 199 w/m**2 to 198 w/m**2 - LWR radiation downwelling and penetrating the surface jumps from 345 w/m**2 to 346 w/m**2 There's been no temperature change but a global heater of 1 w/m**2, 510 terawatts, 16 Zettajoules / year, just got turned on (the total, net, heater or chiller is the sum of all heaters & chillers in operation). The reason why LWR up from the top of the troposphere dropped from 199 w/m**2 to 198 w/m**2 is that what gets out is manufactured on average higher up than before because there are more absorbing molecules to get past, and higher air is colder so it manufactures less LWR (fewer collisions than warmer air and less violent). The reason why LWR down from the bottom of the troposphere (into the surface) rose from 345 w/m**2 to 346 w/m**2 is that what gets out is manufactured on average lower down than before because there are fewer absorbing molecules to get past, and lower air is warmer so it manufactures more LWR (more collisions than colder air and more violent). ------ That was the "Greenhouse Effect". I omitted the stratosphere because it works backwards for well-mixed GHGs CO2 & O3 (but normal operation for H2O gas) causing slight cooling to offset a bit of the warming so it can't be visualized for both combined. I neglected to bookmark the scientist talk where he showed the calculations from 4 or 5 teams with the Greenhouse Effect at top of troposphere and slightly smaller Greenhouse Effect at TOA because the stratosphere works backwards (just apply my simple correct science explanation but backwards). It's a complicating detail not required to explain the "Greenhouse Effect" physics. It just means my "1 w/m**2 extra of global heater" was a slight exaggeration to keep it all simple, maybe 0.9 or 0.85 or 0.8, I dunno, it's irrelevant). ------------- So now that I've instantly turned on ~1.0 w/m**2 extra of global heater the ocean, land & air warm over the next 2,000 years and after 2,000 years my 198 w/m**2 above has finally crept back up to 198.95 w/m**2 and warming stops, by which time my 346 w/m**2 downwelling into the surface has jumped to ~347.7 w/m**2 and the warming has stopped. It stopped at 198.95 instead of 199 because the "window" 9-13 microns went up by 0.05 w/m**2. As I pointed out the numbers aren't scientist accuracy because I ignored the stratosphere complication because I'm explaining how it works not calculating a quantity except in the ball park for illustration.
@@ginabean9434 Is that the £1m carbon fibre one that required 14 times more energy to produce than a mild steel, boat. is she the person whose entourage flying home will produce more than 6 times as much carbon than she saved sailing there in the first place. The leftist elite hypocrisy is mind numbering.
Complaining about Greta,s boat is like complaining that the screwdriver we use to dismantle the power elites has a plastic handle. We have to be pragmatic to use the tools at hand, time is of the essence, don’t sweat the small stuff.
@@mmatih22 "And the little girl came out of her school, sailed to the big castle and told to the kings: "stop cutting the trees, and let the animals free!". She touched them with her magic wand and the kings did as she told. And the little people lived happily ever after" :-) You can believe in fairy tails, I believe in facts: You cannot fight the corporations you are suppose to fight when you accept their money or gifts. The game is called: give me your money and I'll green-wash it. Pragmatism is what killing this planet. While the Titanic is sinking, the duty free shops are still open for business and there's a nice little girl with pony tails giving away free samples in the main lobby. Check WeDontHaveTime business plan for the details.
@@ginabean9434 About the lag, the time from CO2 released until it causes temperature rise, from Climate News Network : climatenewsnetwork.net/not-long-to-wait-till-released-co2-turns-up-temperature/
We Love A Brother Who Knows His History.
Wish We All Did.
Thank You Master Hallam.
All In All... We're Just Another..
Brother Hallam.
Educator's 👏
Why have I watched this one three (3) times? Cuz I can't wait to go, either. Roger is a good speaker BC he is REAL LIFE. NO B.S.
I've watched many times also
Currently my third listening(one of them on my bike !) and not the last one for sure
only an idiot would watch that garbage more than once
It’s been 2 years. Still here.
It’s time to write the UNIVERSAL DECLARATION OF ANIMAL RIGHTS.
Try telling that to his fellow extinction rebellion leader Gail Bradbrook who defends her right to eat meat by declaring herself a Pagan and then ask them about their refusal to condemn animal agriculture, and it's part in the ongoing extinction of numerous species all over the globe. These people are hypocrites and delusional crackpots with no real answer to a problem that they don't seem to have a proper grasp on.
Great speech!
The most passionate lecture about the Crises I've seen as of yet.
There is no "climate crisis" we are being lied to so carpetbaggers and grifters can steal our freedom and money.
I`m english but lived out my life in Australia in the tropics , yes we have winter but always more like your summer , we used to have maybe 0 or - 0 a couple of days or broken up over a week or two . But this has receded over the last 10 years to the point of last year and this winter just gone , We Didn't Have A Winter . Today is the 6th day of spring and it`s 36deg , this is normally a mid summer temp . I`m a firm believer that it may be too late over here .
There's people who really care about this but there's so many people who won't do anything.
I am genuinely amazed at how many people really don't care. It makes me wonder why people are having children.
You answered your own question. Saves us time and effort.
@eileen MAIZE Carey In the US and in other Western countries the Pro Life issue is used by Politicians solely to secure a voter base. As you will know most established political parties are corrupted by Corporate money, and the politicians solely serve their paymasters. The NorthWestern University did a study into the past decade of US legislation and it's beneficiaries. All of it served the Corporates, zero benefited the common voter. So that is why they champion such issues as Pro Life as it's a cover issue, to fool the public.
Why does any species reproduce? Do people have children? Does a bear shit in the woods? Woorying aboat reproduction is total nonsense while industrial society destroys the natural world.
@catastic Yeah right. I have faith in giant octopus from outerr space. Nevre mind runaway climate and science...long live the cephalopods.
@@grindupBaker see my comment
This is a hell of a talk Roger... pays to listen to it every few months to remind ourselves we aren't dreaming. To remind ourselves this is real, absolutely real. We New Zealanders think or believe we live on Planet B. It's a mixture of deliberate social policy to keep the population ignorant of the facts and articles in the Guardian that say NZ is the safest country on the planet. We are living in a dream. Action is all that is left to us in the extreme short term to change the system, change our thinking and attitudes, and get busy on a WW2 footing to save something of the living world, and some of our kids and grandkids.
Great talk once again roger, I like the summary of the facts of climate crisis-TRUTH, your Audience is absolutely silent from shock
He's a good man. Let's all go and stop roads. Fuck up the system that's caused this mess.
Roger is a great thinker and talker.
Mr. Hallam's sentiment is pretty much true. I support this movement based on the analysis of one of these founder. People will not see things until the moment it happened to them. What we have is a "run-away train" with regards to CO2 emmission. The north pole Arctic and southpole Antarctica is shedding its ice faster than what is recorded in history. Desertification is growing fast despite the effort of Kyoto protocol in merchandising carbon footprints through reforestation. The problem lies in growing population in search of pastures and farms, like in Brazil where a third of the rain forest had already disappeared for farms, and offsetting that lost is pretty much impossible. There is a glimpse of hope - the massive reforestation along the Sahara dessert in Africa to combat famine, poverty, and mass migration had already began 10 years ago, the only problem is that the world had turn off the tap in these mega-project due to unknown reason.
He says at 51:38: When the fear goes, radical political change happens. True words.
Late evening before last, I walked my dog to the top of a hill partially overlooking the Pennines and North West of England, including the Wirral and Cheshire as far as the Welsh mountains. While ascending, I was struck by the most unusual intermittent waves of heat that moved across the land, and through us. I felt the energy of the world forests and felled trees of recent time dissipating, and a strong sense of what is to come. People of society everywhere have no real idea of what is to come, of what the lies have done to their children let alone grandchildren, especially those who choose not yet to feel these things, but to think money, medicine, modern chemical and machine is going to save any of us is a wishful and non practical delusion; those things, actions and attitudes are what have brought us to this BRINK. I've been ignored and laughed at while warning at least everyone in my home town, since I awoke to truth that we are on the brink of no return for the past 28 years. The suffering of the many have not yet begun, but it will, while I witness with regrettable disappointment as so many continue to cause the 'ship' to sink; it will be slow and increasingly disturbing. 26/08/2019
@Jota Rider thanks for sharing. I'm aware of thermals, felt them before, though I couldn't compare them to those I mentioned. My senses intuitive reading of any kind of energy have for 52 years proven correct.
The intermittent tide-like waves of thick energetic heat came strong and felt to pass through us. The hill a mere gradient of 200 - 210 above sea level, overlooking the planes of Cheshire, and the Wirral being coastal. Here we are open to all weather coming in from the Atlantic, from Europe and Africa weather tends to move through Southern England just before it reaches us.
We've been on the brink of no return for 28 years? It not having happened yet hasn't shaken your conviction at all has it? One might conclude that your feelings on the matter are immune to any data that contradicts your opinion. If you were waiting for the 2nd coming of Jesus for the last 28 years everybody would know you were nuts. Your views are just as flexible and just as based on reason and scientific fact as all those Jesus folk waiting for Armageddon. You said it yourself. You could feel the "intermittent waves of heat". You "felt the energy of the world forests and felled trees" and had a "strong sense of what is to come." One doesn't even need to offer a counter argument against someone like yourself. You seem to credit yourself with supernatural perception and godlike powers of prediction. If every global warming alarmist was as willing to reveal themself to be as bonkers are you clearly are this debate would be a lot more fun and over much sooner. IN SHORT, YOU ARE MY HERO, CARRY ON.
If I had had this talk as my intro to XR, I could have circumvented all the petty attitudes of local do-gooders who took up 'leadership' roles in local XR groups.
This talk by Roger is probably ranking in on e of the most influencial and important talks in the history of humanity. It inspires me.
@@justinthyme7275 Your response is a typical *ad hominem* attack, lacking in substance.
Don't be pathetic!
Trying to find a technological "solution", as in geoengineering, will only deter from the real problem, exponentially rising greenhouse gases. The painful truth is that there is no solution other than reducing our emissions drastically and now.
watching and listening to this now. it’s really good. those outtakes to the audience too make my heart plummet.
19 minutes of this talk, from 10:56 to 30:00 should be being broadcast on every major TV channel every day at prime time. If that happened, we wouldn't have a few million protesters coming out on a Friday to march. Instead, we'd have the global revolution we need.
@Muso Snoop LOL. I'm the guy who's a victim of psychological warfare, says the guy who has somehow become convinced that 97% of the world's scientists and 99.99% of the world's climate scientists are lying to us.
If eating less meat is important to slowing climate change and we are in a climate crisis, then eat no meat at all. We can't be risking it this impending disaster with just a little bit of action.
Many people making small efforts is more valuable than a few people being perfect. Humanity isn't perfect. We can all just try our best
i agree:)
@@palomawoma Unfair logic. You compare two unsatisfying outcomes. Anyone who agrees on the urgency agrees that MAXIMUM EFFORT must be the goal. If you tell people "eat less meat" a small percentage of them with do a little effort. If we decide collectively to forbid raising cattle and killing cattle then everyone goes vegan at once. And the result is huge. And we get a standing chance to survive. The time for lukewarm, slow change over decades is over. The talk was about changes in WEEKS.
@@assezzen194 No, you create a black market. Education and patience whilst people adjust to change is better. In my opinion, obviously you are free to believe otherwise :)
@@assezzen194 The way I am seeing it is, we have to be honest about what can solve our climate crisis. If enough people "go vegan" we can do it. If not enough do, we can't. We do not know the exact number. It is not work risking all the animals and our lives. We need to help people see and feel good about the solution. helping those that need changing habits or careers. It difficult for people to change quickly, but in this case, Id' say we need to stop the Arctic from melting in three to five years. How many can we get see that going vegan will have dramatic results. I agree with you we can't "ban eating meat". I agree with you, " The time for lukewarm, slow change over decades is over."
Could you please give us the sources/papers about the 2 topics: CO2-lag (+0.7°C) and stop of Pollution (+0.7°C)?
Thank you
Removing aerosols:
agupubs.onlinelibrary.wiley.com/doi/full/10.1002/2017GL076079
CO2 lag is just radiative imbalance. More about it and also aerosl masking here:
www.giss.nasa.gov/research/briefs/hansen_16/
If you want to recalculate radiative forcings to temperature use the climate sensitivity:
0.75 Centigrades / Wm-2
When I lived in PZ we dumped tons of waste from the beaches in front of the council offices to highlight dirty beaches and eventually they listened but it took time.....but it worked......disruption and attention works
That's so cool! I hope such action works in other places in the world. I think we're going to need a crap load of people willing to engage in civil disobedience for this to work.
not really. Just pisses people off for the most part.
So you polluted the land to protest. XD
Like fuck has it worked - it didn’t make a shit of difference, further to which much of what you dumped was ‘collected’ to create a stunt, no further follow up, no further progress.
@Flat Eric stopped taking planes 30 years ago..and stopped listening to trolls
The most comprehensive and knowledgeable speeches I’ve ever heard on the subject....should be required listening at all universities, to start! Thank you Roger !
@@steve-r-collier Talk to scientists who have studied this for almost 72 years if you think he's "brainwashed". Facts are facts, and no amount of vitriol or ignorance on your part will change this.
Roger - excellent talk. I’m in. You’ve made the case for disruption. I’m ready to disrupt.
Now where I live in Golden, Colorado, USA, I need to gather a group and figure out how to get started....
Thanks Roger you are a champion, a truth teller. Keep up the good work.
here here
Thanks for this great, inspiring and entertaining speech, said it all! I happen live in "the tropics" you mentioned. As a close spectator of the massive looting of natural resources, destruction of primary forests and its biodiversity can only back you that true, real and determined action will stop this utter madness!
lets do this
Joining extinction Rebellion seems like a fantastick new years resolution for me.
I find some people's responses to ER quite bizarre. I'm talking about those folk that complain about the methodology; it's almost as though they are living in a parallel world, whereby they are trying to 'get on with their lives' whilst Extinction Rebellion is doing its best to make their lives difficult. We are all living on the same planet. A planet which is being put under intolerable pressure by our activity; if we don't act now, ER's actions will be entirely insignificant in comparison to what we'll face as a species.
This is one of those talks you need to watch a couple of times while repeatedly picking your jaw up off the table.
I too am amazed they have a wild-eyed Charlie Manson character as their figurehead
Important information I watched it a few times now
pure silliness
Great info. Great voice. The closet you can look like your audiences, the more they will believe you. Crazy, but true.
Introduction: Farmer to Rebellion leader 00:00
3:00 Rich guy contacts XR: "Whatever it takes"
4:20 COP organizer wants XR to cause chaos at COP
5:45 BBC journalist phones XR and gives advice on how to effectively blockade parliament
6:25 XR is growing exponentially because people are shitting themselves
7:50 You can know about climate change without REALLY feeling it
The climate science
9:50 Climate change has killer facts. It's not complicated
11:00 Killer fact 1: By 2022 there will be no permanent ice left in the arctic = chaos
13:33 Killer fact 2: 2 degrees increase is already locked in due to carbon lag, global dimming, the carbon emitted by the soil, etc.
17:00 Thats 4 degrees in the middle of continents -> cant grow grains reliably -> starvation
17:17 Killer fact 3: CO2 concentrations are going up faster and faster. Now at 415ppm. Gonna be at 450 within 10 years -> 2 degrees locked in
19:55 Social collapse: Starts with no welfare payments, then schools shutdown, then hospitals can't function. No food = starvation
21:50 20% crop yield decrease in North America, Europe and Russia in 2018
22:25 Jem Bendell's Deep Adaptation paper: jembendell.com/2019/05/15/deep-adaptation-versions/
25:13 Millions of refugees -> War -> Your kids being sent to be slaughtered
27:45 Nonlinear dynamics example: Wet bulb effect en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Wet-bulb_temperature#Wet-bulb_temperature_and_health
Social Science: There's something we can do about it 30:13
32:00 Erica Chenoweth (3.5% rule): ua-cam.com/video/YJSehRlU34w/v-deo.html
33:04 Mass participation civil disobedience can radically change the political direction of a society in a short amount of time PERIOD.
36:15 Why civil disobedience works: Disruption and sacrifice
Civil Disobedience (Tell the truth and act as if the truth is real) 40:13
42:20 Independent action: Flying drones at Heathrow airport
43:35 First story: Salt march (Gandhi)
46:20 Freedom Riders (Civil rights movement)
49:35 Children's march (Civil rights movement)
52:35 King's College fossil fuel divestment campaign
59:04 XR April 15th rebellion
1:02:12 3 Reasons people choose to get arrested and/or go to prison:
1. People are simply terrified 1:03:00
2. It's an act of conscience 1:04:34
3. It's an adventure! 1:07:34
Going to prison: A closer look
1:10:13 In Egypt: Prison = Torture. Not in Britain.. yet
1:11:30 Going through what it means to get arrested in Britain
1:13:37 Going through what it means to go to prison in Britain
1:19:14 The only people who are going to do something about the climate crisis are ordinary people
1:23:27 "The greatest fear we have is not the fear of the powerful, but the fear of our own power. The fear that we could actually make a difference."
*REBEL FOR LIFE!!*
Great summary
@@mfrown thanks!
This estimate of 0.7 degrees of global cooling due to effects on solar radiation of industrial emissions - the so-called global dimming - is wildly uncertain - a fact that has been highlighted by the IPPC reports for decades. Switching off the cooling could amount to half as much global warming again as already seen (half a degree) or it could result in very little global average temperature increase at all. In the absence of more certainty, the precautionary principle applies - assume it could be the worse case.
Matt W Global dimming is the least of your problems. It's not Increasing temperatures, nor sea level rise, nor warmer oceans, nor severe weather, nor desertification, nor the migrations of millions, it's what comes from left field that will finish off mankind. UA-cam James G. Anderson Harvard professor of Atmospheric Chemistry, and listen carefully to what he has to say about Climate Structures. Then you can start worrying about what else you have never heard of that is going to kill you and everyone you know.
@@Vanargand23 You mean (among other things) the microorganisms held in check by permafrost that will be released, right?
@@LuxAeterna22878 and the methane
comprehensive, chronological, and inescapable. Thanks for the Face Punch, i thought this was non-violent. I think i shall complain
Unfortunatly i am now labelled a threat so i will probably get arrested
I agree with far more of what he says than I disagree with to the point that my disagreements are not even worth mentioning !
Could someone please link the paper regarding food shortage thankyou
Perhaps someone can enlighten me, if we already have 3.5°C warming locked in, then what the hell are we fighting for? Our children not having a horrible death is unavoidable at this level. What is the best case scenario the movement is trying to achieve?
That kind of attitude is a cop-out. We have to at least try. And we could use your help.
this is one of the most important speech,s that i have ever listened to !
Agreed! Depending on how many people are actually affected by it, potentially one of the most important in human history.
This is a con! The sky is not falling. CO2 levels are not related to global temperature.
Nonsense.Climate change has always been part of the worlds evolution. If you want something to demonstrate about that is truely important to the future stability of our future its the release of Tommy Robinson illegally imprisoned .Islam is the greatest threat to our way of life within the next ten years.Not climate change.
True, but water vapor is. This is the true driver of raising the GLOBAL avg Temp increase. They hydrological cycle has been disregulated because of all the military weather modification and particles in the air. It has created a thermal blanket, keeping heat in. Plus all the Stratospheric Atmospheric Injection formulas they use destroy ozone, so now the sun burns hotter.
@@rogerwoodhouse7945 Climate change is really Global levelling. Leveling is what they've been doing since they murdered the Romanovs. They quickly did some leveling right across Europe to remove the family's with wealth and favour in the local community, who they knew would not agree with their plans. The few who escaped this slaughter did so by siding with the enemy, the likes of VW and Siemens.
Not happy with that they've been across the world levelling and even Mr Blair did he's bit. Steal the gold, flatten the cities to make sure they can't rise again. The same process is being used by the EU and UN. The UN Climate policy according to a senior boss is nothing to do with the Climate, its purpose is to keep the poor poor, by taxation.
Meanwhile at grass roots level, over 20 European countries have had their wealth spirited away, a wage reduction has hit millions and all caused by migration and the countries have been loaded with super high debt levels.
As a condition of joining, you can't have the wealth to be able to rise again as an individual country.
The plan is a sustainable, global pay, global rules, one world government, Corporate Socialism.
It will happen like this...
One day, after another warm winter and another unbeatable hot humid summer, utility failures and food shortages will become the norm. Persisting without end, way past the three years of failed harvests.
Shops become steadily emptied of the basics, then the luxuries, people become irrational, then violent, then killers. Food, electricity, gas, will just stop, then the fuel will run out. Those with renewable energy, stored food, drink will become targets,
Then you realize there is no more police, no government, no healthcare, no TV broadcasts, no trustworthy news.
In the apocalypse, it’s recorded propaganda 24/7. Without pay, people will go rogue on mass. Disperse into the countryside. Famine, flood, fire, heat, drought, disease, storms, surges, resource wars & civil breakdown will together wreak havoc on all aspect of civil society.
The ‘mad scramble’ of carbon capture & renewable energy monopoly is too little, too late to retain civilization as you recognize it now, Man will survive in isolated pockets of survivable, defendable enclaves.
I used to believe 2B (billion) might survive, leaving 8B dead. Now I believe barely a few hundred million might survive worldwide a hundred years from now.
To be clear- that’s 10B early painful, distressing human deaths.
Within a human lifetime into the next century.
I think you are overly optimistic. Insects and jellyfish may survive, but vertebrates are done for.
Here in Victoria Australia, we are in summer, yet we have snow in the highlands
Are you sure it's snow, and not ash from the fires? ::smile::
Thanks Roger... for this video and explanation.. greatttt.. thankss.from the netherlands
Clearly, police and prisons are very different in UK than US.
The billions spent on Space exploration, searching for planets capable of sustaining human life, would be better spent on healing our sickly planet Earth which is yearning for our support.
I can't believe this hasn't had more views. I don't know how to do this, but could it (or parts of it) be made into an audio podcast? That way it might be something that helps get the message out?... Especially to counter the inevitable mainstream media backlash in Sept 2020.
Thank you Roger and everybody involved
Everyone should consider this video, absorb it, google it.
Google it, don't trust me. Don't reply to my comment.
I'm not convinced that there's enough prison spaces to put us all in prison!!
Danny
TheWalrusWasDanny maybe that's why bojo has announced funding for 10000 more places?
As long as they feed us all when the times of starvation and social collapse come, prison doesn't sound that bad (and maybe even safer than being outside!)
They will use immigrants to build more....lol
They wil just expand them into concentration camps and put us all owork as slaves for the cunt elites.......already happening in some gaols now
The US already has 1% of there population in prison. You talk about Gulag. Gulag never was this big, even 30% of the population moved from villages to cities in 10 years. You will have social unrest with this scale of social change.
My hero!
When I was a kid here in Adelaide (70s & 80s), it got to 40ºC once every few years. Now it gets to 40º EVERY SINGLE year, usually many times, and the peak we've hit is 46ºC.
Bethany Hunt. Sorry Bethany that would be my fault. I turned the heating up because I live in Scotland and it’s always Baltic cold here and I’m sure this Hallam guy is a stand up comedian. Everybody seems to be laughing at his jokes. Oh no the Artic is melting! It’s been melting for the last 10,000 years. London was under 2,000 feet of ice 10,000 years ago.
Watching this legit changed my life. I'd be happy to get arrested for this cause. May the civil disobedience ensue.
You dont name the sustainability professor: Jem Bendell.
Thanks, was looking for this.
HIs paper named Deep Adaptation didn't pass peer review which means it isn't of adequate scientific quality.
@@JoergWessels peers are some the lying fekkers hes on about and academics.
@@BuddyCalyxed source?
Hi @@JoergWessels it didn't pass peer review because it was to full of the brutal truth
All 3 situations, i.e., the Salt March in India, Civil Rights march in Alabama and the women's suffragettes in the UK and US have not resulted in a significant ecological, dare I utter, spiritual change. Yet we still have and support the rejigged neoliberal capitalist system. Nothing short of a full collapse will ever give the citizenry the space needed to tackle these enormous structural polices. Ou lot as both human & Being.
What the paper called? ( 22:25 ) I googled around a bit and found one called Deep Adaptation: A Map for Navigating Climate Tragedy by Jem Bendell. Is that the one?
I'm also curious about where it was downloaded from 450,000 times
Yes that's it. www.lifeworth.com/deepadaptation.pdf
Skærm Følelse Yes, that‘s the one.
Funnily enough it was in PZ where I started campaigning on the climate...about 1988, and then apart from doing aid work in Africa took no more planes since then.I went to China in 1989 by train ..great trip. We have moved an inch since the 80's and whether or not we have time to stop the rot is debatable. XR is the last throw of the dice in my opinion.
Does anyone know the Harvard scientist Roger references who discovered the hole in the ozone? My google search came up with 3 British scientists; Joe Farman, Brian Gardiner and Jonathan Shanklin. Could not find one from Harvard.
Tom Cullen for numbers ans science i suggest peter wadhams, professor..
The people who discovered the Ozone Hole are Mario J Molina, who was at MIT but is retired, and F. Sherwood Rowland, who is deceased. James Anderson does ozone research at Harvard and I'm guessing that's who he means. www.seas.harvard.edu/directory/janders. Need to get those facts straight!! (Like 6 of seven billion of us dad? By which projection?)
Roger Hallam bases his non-violence theory on a study which showed that non paramilitary or guerilla mass movements were more effective. However these 'peaceful' movements were not passive in the way XR strives to be, they involved plenty of confrontation, rioting and fighting back, they just didn't involve organised armed struggle to any large extent. You don't have to take up arms to have a spiky street presence with the ability to defend itself and slow down or hamper the actions of the state in stopping it - in fact it's exactly what you need if you are going to genuinely disrupt capital and move beyond the kind of spectacle that XR are very good at, but which is clearly not really troubling the state.
Every protest in history has an element of #TellTheTruth as a tenet ........
Has anything changed or as Nikola Tesla said "the world is not yet ready for the great and the good".
This talk is one that counts. (The quote attributed to Mandela I believe is Marianne Williamson's.)
True!!
Man, UK prison sounds nice. Not so sure I'd feel the same in a Los Angeles County prison.
But, it's still worth it.
Kudos to Roger Hallam.
Great work Roger and gang! This is one of the best talks I've heard on the subject, maybe the best! I will share as much as I can and try to help from Pa. (US).
The time to act was over 30 years ago......
When he adds up predicted temperature increase from lag etc; 3.6 + human activity, it adds up to 6.3 degrees locked in warming? 3.6 + 2.7. Is that right? Is that locked in then?
this is both the best and worst thing I have watched on youtube.
Such an objectionable 'man'.
Agreed, he is quite vile.
We need to stop GEOENGINEERING!
Geoengineering isn't one thing. What "geoengineering" is happening that we need to stop?
help start eco villages. 200 + people wanted
Great seminar!
It takes a while to get to the real premise. But the first half hour's setting up? Is seriously necessary - too few people talk about the depth of damage we're doing.
"Martin Luther King was on the phone, 'don't do it' ". Lol
thank you for sharing and thank you for your courage!
That audience looks hooked on every single word! Utter silence.
Nice to hear people talking about global dimming
Great speech but the room's so beige it's fucking with my eyes
Thank you Roger, it was amazing having you speak at the U of T in Toronto this past week! The planet is screaming , but no one is listening!! :(
Did he do this by web cam or did he fly over.
From a caring citizen, i say that a proposal be written, backed up bye a petition and put to congress that the proposal address climate change and to implement renewable energy and addressing that government subsides solar panels to Australia and beyond.And to but forth ,it is the governments role to take care of the welfare of it's voting citizens, MR RECYCLE
I didn't listen to the social science because WG1 climate science is what I've studied for a decade. Roger is correct on his global temperatures (I do the actual detailed study/calculation intensively) and Roger is incorrect only on his Arctic Ocean sea ice latent heat effect at 12:40. I had also assumed latent heat effect causes ocean warming (I calculated 10 w/m**2 annual average) but it turns out only Arctic Ocean albedo reduction causes ocean warming (a paper came out ~3 weeks ago) and when I pondered it properly I realized that the summer warming effect of no ice to melt is balanced exactly by the winter cooling effect of no ice being formed (ice releases heat as it forms) so over the full year it's a wash (no change). Arctic Ocean albedo reduction causes +0.82 degrees of extra global warming when there's no sea ice at all on the Arctic Ocean. However, +0.19 degrees of extra global warming when there's no sea ice at all on the Arctic Ocean has already happened since the 1970s (it's been a +ve feedback for 40 years) so there's +0.63 degrees of extra global warming from Arctic Ocean sea ice loss still to come before that's all finished (which Roger did not mention along with his correct +0.7 plus +0.7 for climate lag and the net loss of global dimming - soot on snow). The Chinese will decide on this matter of how much future global warming because the U.S. Americans are a totally fucking useless navel-gazing bunch of greedy arse holes, as you've all had clearly shown to you if you haven't been asleep for the last 12 years.
so what do you believe causes "global warming" ?
@@potholder9981 He's not disputing anthropogenic warming, just the strength of the arctic albedo effect.
@@potholder9981 You're not exactly the sharpest knife in the drawer. Do you manage to pull your pants on OK ?
Hi there. Very interesting reply. Would you mind posting a link to the paper you mentioned? Many thanks.
Your claim is physically incorrect. Yes, Ice creation emits heat, at 0C. Ice clear arctic with warm-up water much higher than this, increasing heat transfer to air much more. Water much better in transferring heat than ice, which mostly put it into saltwater under Ice. This simple physic makes me doubt your claim. One more Oil paid to believe that everything will be alright. Using typical old Mackeavelian debate trick, agree with some premice in order to undermind general conclusion.
Who, me? Get arrested? Perhaps get beat up? Go to prison? You know? I really hate going around trying to get signatures on the Clean the Darn Air petition (have you signed yet?), but hey; at least I'm not getting arrested. Who knows though. It might come to that. It might come to that when I realize that everything I cherish is going out the window anyway.
Greenland is currently melting at the level of what the most pessimistic predictions said that it would by 2070.
what would you personally conclude from that about the time when we have a sufficiently ice free artctic, before or after 2035?
Not really because projections are for the averages over a few years, not for 1 month, so the trend is not indicated at all by a just a few weeks. Lost way more than average of the last 20 years this year though. Maybe 50-70% more. We don't know yet until late September.
@@grindupBaker I do understand that it was the European heat wave moving over Greenland, so it could be seen as anomalous, but I do think that it is at least concerning. I personally find it very depressing. It does limit the amount of hope that I have for the health of the planet.
@@howmathematicianscreatemat9226 I am mainly just a newsgeek and therefore a doomer. I don't have enough scientific statistical background to feel comfortable making a guess, because my guess would not be sufficiently educated.
@@markadams8041 ; wow, thank you for your honesty... most people would have just stated a guess number and not be so honerable to the other person!
Has anyone thought about a global boycott?
A room full of sheep.
Clowns to the left of me, jokers to the right.
"I will not kill" is another complicated and messy application of self-control. You have to change personal behaviours you've inherited from the "belief, faith, hope and trust" in empirical/religious and ordinary impositions, based on Actuality. We have to put the life of the actual Methodology and knowledge into a system of self-sacrificial death, (life evolves in death), based on assumptions, lies and false promises of an "afterlife".
All things are connected, here-now-forever, in one universal being that we represent individually, by a pulsed, integrated wave-package in the Universal Hologram.
We amount to the mechanical equivalent of an idea, which is the solidified version of what has been assumed to be "Soul", mind in body, and "skin in the game" means that the embodiment of intentional concepts is either on the positive side of average participation in the culture, or a soulless psychopathology needing a better education.
So the Golden Rule applies, using the gift of observational scientific in-form-ation memory, is probability cubed mathematically speaking, you have to be yourself ..what you expect from others ..and optimize your awareness of holistic Actuality.
(Act in haste, repent at leasure, or,
Optimal integration is the evolutionary survival mechanism, we have access to the rhythms of Shakespearean history)
The legal implications of making a mistake against your own conscience, is that you become an instant victim of "the system" ready to take advantage of your "weaknesses", such as believing in the fraudulent authority and faked intentional policies of liars. You have to work it out for yourself from first principles as soon as you're old enough to think.
I’m going to leave my lights on tonight . In protest of this crap
56:46 that's Brilliant
Great presentation, gathering support in the Netherlands too!
Hooray for the Nederlands!!
Tim Polaszek
That dumb there too
Roger Hallam is my hero, I want to be like him when I grow up.
There is a Climate Crisis. We need Climate Action.
Get active in your community. Speak up for the future of the planet.
Does anyone have a link or info about the paper Roger references that came out last week about Carbon in the soil?
Is it by the Russian scientist studying the melting of the permafrost? I think the permafrost is giving off methane- 4 times the effect of carbon in the air.
I am asking myself which fear is greater:
The fear of life unsustainable.
Vs.
The fear of prison.
I gotta say, I fear for my child moreso than my fatass every day of the week.
It's taken me months to actually listen to this movement. It's painful. There are critics. It's emotional. Somewhat squishy. It feels vulnerable.
I was begging to work for the oil fields in my region just to be able to afford painting in my free time. That now feels like a moral crime and an unacceptable course of action.
I understand your dilemma, but the fear of life unsustainable is worse. You have the opportunity to take the RIGHT side in the most important moral struggle humanity has ever known. We will judged for thousands of generations to come for what we do NOW. Do the right thing and you will be remembered with honour!
I live in the San Juan basin and there are XR activists out of Santa Fe. I hope to make a connection there and see if the local "Frack Free" group might like to increase their numbers. We'll see how the conversation goes.
First off, though, I need to buy the handbook. I can't risk jail (yet) because I have a kindergartener and her father is dead. But some of these protests (the Irish one in particular) are brilliant in their performances. The Navajo have the indigenous flare of dance and song and I don't think it'll be much of a stretch considering the local Chaco Canyon protests.
I tell you this as not only a response to your encouragement, but brainstorm as well. Connecting these communities seems to be the biggest challenge here.
Amanda Harig
The fear of God
@@Vroombout69
Nope. Not at all a factor.
That is called magical thinking. I have little tolerance for it.
No more excuses!
I'm with you but please include all citations to academic papers and sources, that will strengthen and spread.
Will Hall google Jem Bendell for facts
@@magsmart Please read my comment - I myself have a good grasp of the papers and sources including the Bendell paper. I was recommending that XR and others always include citations and sources //so we can share this with others to strengthen and spread//. If you ask a lot of people why they don't support XR it will be because they think XR is exaggerating the severity of the crisis and therefore non-scientific. The solution to that is to always bring strong citations and science. Keep in mind we need to grow the movement and bring more people in and that means making the science as accessible and available as possibly.
Good point.
The most important talk I have ever heard. Thank you, Roger, for showing me that my fear is gone as well.
well... i guess we have a lil bit of time left... so enjoy life ✌
Here's How the "Greenhouse Effect" Works (my 6th great explanation method of the same thing). Suppose there's average 345 w/m**2 of downwelling LWR radiation into the surface and 199 w/m**2 of LWR radiation heading up from the top of the troposphere. Just Suppose. The LWR is manufactured by collisions of infrared-active "Greenhouse Gas" molecules in the troposphere. The fact that the total of 345+199 = 544 w/m**2 isn't split evenly into 272 w/m**2 of downwelling LWR radiation each into the surface and out of the troposphere top means there's a "Greenhouse Effect" from those gases in the troposphere and an obvious measure of "Greenhouse Warming Effect Factor" is 345/199-1 because if they were both 272 then Factor would be 0.000 and if there was more heading up than into the surface then the Factor would be -ve (it would be a cooling Effect).
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So suppose I calculate how much more GHGs I need to get 1 w/m**2 extra of global heater Earth's energy budget imbalance (EEI) and mix those GHGs in the troposphere with a big spoon and INSTANTLY 2 things happen:
- LWR radiation heading up from the top of the troposphere drops from 199 w/m**2 to 198 w/m**2
- LWR radiation downwelling and penetrating the surface jumps from 345 w/m**2 to 346 w/m**2
There's been no temperature change but a global heater of 1 w/m**2, 510 terawatts, 16 Zettajoules / year, just got turned on (the total, net, heater or chiller is the sum of all heaters & chillers in operation).
The reason why LWR up from the top of the troposphere dropped from 199 w/m**2 to 198 w/m**2 is that what gets out is manufactured on average higher up than before because there are more absorbing molecules to get past, and higher air is colder so it manufactures less LWR (fewer collisions than warmer air and less violent).
The reason why LWR down from the bottom of the troposphere (into the surface) rose from 345 w/m**2 to 346 w/m**2 is that what gets out is manufactured on average lower down than before because there are fewer absorbing molecules to get past, and lower air is warmer so it manufactures more LWR (more collisions than colder air and more violent).
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That was the "Greenhouse Effect". I omitted the stratosphere because it works backwards for well-mixed GHGs CO2 & O3 (but normal operation for H2O gas) causing slight cooling to offset a bit of the warming so it can't be visualized for both combined. I neglected to bookmark the scientist talk where he showed the calculations from 4 or 5 teams with the Greenhouse Effect at top of troposphere and slightly smaller Greenhouse Effect at TOA because the stratosphere works backwards (just apply my simple correct science explanation but backwards). It's a complicating detail not required to explain the "Greenhouse Effect" physics. It just means my "1 w/m**2 extra of global heater" was a slight exaggeration to keep it all simple, maybe 0.9 or 0.85 or 0.8, I dunno, it's irrelevant).
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So now that I've instantly turned on ~1.0 w/m**2 extra of global heater the ocean, land & air warm over the next 2,000 years and after 2,000 years my 198 w/m**2 above has finally crept back up to 198.95 w/m**2 and warming stops, by which time my 346 w/m**2 downwelling into the surface has jumped to ~347.7 w/m**2 and the warming has stopped. It stopped at 198.95 instead of 199 because the "window" 9-13 microns went up by 0.05 w/m**2. As I pointed out the numbers aren't scientist accuracy because I ignored the stratosphere complication because I'm explaining how it works not calculating a quantity except in the ball park for illustration.
Excellent talk
Looking for the study predicting mass starvation in Europe that he speaks about, can anyone help?
deep adaptation by jem bendell
The hottest it got in France was 51C in one place which was an all time record since meteorological recordings have begun there.
@paul8kangas You can't miss her boat, there's a giant BMW sticker on it :-)
@@ginabean9434 Is that the £1m carbon fibre one that required 14 times more energy to produce than a mild steel, boat. is she the person whose entourage flying home will produce more than 6 times as much carbon than she saved sailing there in the first place. The leftist elite hypocrisy is mind numbering.
Complaining about Greta,s boat is like complaining that the screwdriver we use to dismantle the power elites has a plastic handle. We have to be pragmatic to use the tools at hand, time is of the essence, don’t sweat the small stuff.
@@mmatih22 "And the little girl came out of her school, sailed to the big castle and told to the kings: "stop cutting the trees, and let the animals free!". She touched them with her magic wand and the kings did as she told. And the little people lived happily ever after" :-)
You can believe in fairy tails, I believe in facts: You cannot fight the corporations you are suppose to fight when you accept their money or gifts. The game is called: give me your money and I'll green-wash it.
Pragmatism is what killing this planet. While the Titanic is sinking, the duty free shops are still open for business and there's a nice little girl with pony tails giving away free samples in the main lobby. Check WeDontHaveTime business plan for the details.
@@ginabean9434 About the lag, the time from CO2 released until it causes temperature rise, from Climate News Network : climatenewsnetwork.net/not-long-to-wait-till-released-co2-turns-up-temperature/