Will the US have a Civil War with @WhatifAltHist's Rudyard Lynch
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- Опубліковано 6 чер 2024
- In this conversation, Erik Torenberg and Dan Romero sit with Rudyard Lynch of @WhatifAltHist to discuss his analysis of potential future global events, such as an American civil war and a revolution in China, considering economic conditions, demographics, and societal behaviors. If you're looking for an ERP platform, check out NetSuite: netsuite.com/zen.
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FOLLOW ON X:
@whatifalthist (Rudyard)
@eriktorenberg (Erik)
@dwr (Dan)
@moz_podcast (Moment of Zen)
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BOOKS CITED:
Guns, Germs, and Steel: The Fates of Human Societies by Jared Diamond
Who We Are and How We Got Here: Ancient DNA and the New Science of the Human Past by David Reich
The Coming Caesars by Amaury De Riencourt
The Eye of Shiva: Eastern Mysticism and Science by Amaury De Riencourt
Bulfinch's Mythology - All Three Volumes - The Age of Fable, The Age of Chivalry, and Legends of Charlemagne by Thomas Bulfinch
Dune by Frank Herbert
Sapiens: A Brief History of Humankind by Yuval Noah Harari
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TIMESTAMPS:
(00:00) Intro
(01:14) Rudyard and Dan's Approach to History
(03:50) Alt History
(11:57) Modern Civilization and Historical Patterns
(19:31) Sponsor: NETSUITE
(20:50) Possibility of a Civil War?
(42:47) Political Crisis and the Split of States
(44:00) Power of American National Guards
(45:02) Dependence of States on Federal Funding
(43:47) Economic Divide in America
(47:18) Struggles of Average Americans
(48:50) Insane Minorities in Civil Wars
(50:00) Power of Elites in Conflicts
(57:34) Potential for a Competent Trump-like Populist
(01:04:50) The Future of China and Its Potential Revolution
(01:17:20) Wrap
This show is produced by Turpentine: a network of podcasts, newsletters, and more, covering technology, business, and culture - all from the perspective of industry insiders and experts. We’re launching new shows every week, and we’re looking for industry-leading sponsors - if you think that might be you and your company, email us at erik@turpentine.co.
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National Guard absolutely has air assets. It's called... "Air National Guard"
Yep. I yelled the same thing. Lol
Even if they didn't have aircraft, one of the most common NG units seems to be air defense, anti air.
Yep lmao. tmd.texas.gov/air-guard
Yep we have MANG
here
Montana air national gaurd
We most definitely have advanced air assets
That guy is a typical person with concrete views on a subject that doesn't know what they're talking about.
Wait until Jordan Peterson finds this guy. Thats going to be an exceptional conversation.
Oh yeah, the son he never had.
Will Jordan cry about being called Rabbi again?
@@heftyhugh9086 what interview of his are you referring to?
@@TioMogi you’ve never seen that clip of Juden Peterstein crying about Jews calling him Rabbi?
@@heftyhugh9086 no I haven't, hence why I asked the question
I think Dan has the Cinderella complex . He has the illusion that the system is so strong it can't get out of hand . The summer of love was nothing compared to the riots that broke out after the Rodney King incident. All the police and military they threw at it, and it could not be stopped . The large cities that have taken in the majority of the immigration are an absolute powder keg . Just imagine those type of riots breaking out in 5, or 10 or 20 major cities . Now imagine those riots are actual battle grounds . They will find out with the immigration, more people are just more people you have to try to keep under control . Economic scarcity will be the trigger.
Dan solved world peace bro wdym? Lolol
wait, are you saying US internal security is kept together with scotch tape? russia has some 300 thousand or more just domestic security forces for this purpose.
@@effexonUSA has been stable and peaceful for decades with population that doesn't require a strong internal security because we didn't have to many internal security issues until the far left lunatics started to become increasingly volatile. USA is not like Russia
I think he's swimming in normalcy bias. I miss those days when I too was swimming in normalcy bias. Normalcy bias is bliss.
I have Hathahate for this channel 😂
36:00 - It is true that people arent attached to locations today compared with the 1860s, but that civil war was an abberation. In the Spanish Civil War it was not about one state fighting another, it was rural vs urban centered ideologies. This is exactly where we are in the US today. Hope Im wrong and nothing happens.......
@0utc4st1985 The Spanish Civil War is a good analogy. The Troubles in Ireland might fit as well.
You're not wrong, and it will happen.
If the states are not given a choice by the Federal system, that system will be fractured. That's what happened in the Revolution; It's what happened in the Civil War. It's what will happen, if the Feds aren't reined in, in the Balkanization of the US. People are already voting with their feet, fleeing crime/taxation and sheer foolishness in blue states.
I thi k it is the most likely outcome. A really long drawn out conflict that is spitter splattered throughout the country that can't easily be resolved.
Also in the Spanish Civil War, the nationalists received a lot of Axis assistance, I don't think Franco could have won if it wasn't for Wehrmarcht and the fascist Italian army helping him and assisting Franco, the bombing of Guernica an example, done by the Luftwaffe. I think it could be more like the troubles, it can be like the Russian Revolution or Spanish civil or even Syrian civil war that did end, but I think these three last scenarios are unlikely, it will be like northern Ireland, and with maybe a little of Latin American drug wars in the city. The right isn't united.
A collapsing China might also be part of what kicks off things in America. Suppose that, on top of everything else, Wal Mart cheap stuff isn't their to prop up the economy or act as cheap retail therapy.
india is planned to catch up in that aspect.
@@effexon they'll catch up but I swear they're slower
@@yux.tn.3641slower is good. china did it too fast like many other countries and price is horrible in many ways.
@@yux.tn.3641 India makes better stuff though
there*
You can see the generational divide here. Those over 30 and those under 30 are living in completely different universes. The older show hosts really don't understand what the young are going though, and there is nothing in their current worldview that encompasses it, because they have never experienced it. The people in charge of this country are a generation older still. DC is inside its own reality bubble. When or if something breaks, it will take these people by complete surprise. there is a lack of imagination here that rudyard goes into in his videos all the time.
I'm over 30, and I completely understand the struggle.
I have been calling this out for many years and have been called Not-see and been attacked in 2016. I just got tired of yelling about it after a while. Maybe I should have made a UA-cam videos and such.
@kanukistani2984 Right on the money. It seems impossible for (most) older people to understand the true depth of our troubles until it's literally burning their house down around them.
I am 43.My son is 25.He has a great job and he still lives at home with me.Because he can't afford a home.He is pissed off angry single and so are all of his friends. Your all just don't see it, it's coming get ready!
I'm 35 and I have an ear to the ground, I see how much the situation for the younger generations is atrocious. I also barely managed to get my hands on an ridiculously overpriced mobile home for a house, despite making in the very high 5 figures. If I have financial difficulties, I know most young people are screwed. I'm completely on the side of the zoomers, here.
In a civil war it won't be infantry vs F-15's. It will be small groups of door kickers visiting the pilots and ground crew of F15s at night.
Television News readers after that, I hope...
Only the pilots that are willing to fire upon us citizens
@A_Caat Timothy McVeigh driving up to the NSA's daycare while he's at work and the agent's kid is there
@@A_CaatApril 19th 1995
They don't even need to do that. If the specialists and crew chiefs do not show up for work, no more than a handful of aircraft will be functional after a week. Your average pilot is not a competent aircraft technician.
Door kickers will not have much to do, as the majority of competent specialists and crew chiefs will not side with a tyrannical leftist government that is attacking the people.
39:22 Iraq and Afghanistan combat veteran here…. the reason that those calling for violence are always people who have never done it, is because those of us who HAVE done it before do NOT want it happening anywhere near our homes. I have already fought in stupid wars for this country.
I cant remember if whatifaltist has talked of this subject but yes all history one on one level subjective interviews and stories confirm this... peaceful period since WW2 was large part because of that factor, even presidents had been footsoldiers as young man before taking that position, so people in all aspects had that personal experience. For nuclear weaponry, similar path was there that people had been making decisions that had seen themselves whole path from inception of those weapons. Im not saying some young sharp fellow couldnt grasp these things but it is rarer and peer pressure is a thing and cave in easier without personal conviction based on experiences. In corporate world it is very common that organizational level wisdom is lost and same mistakes are made every so often and relearned again and again. Danger is to do this mistake in nuclear weaponry and mass scale war.
"Peer pressure" is certainly there to benefit and profit from war.
2020 demonstrated these idiots are willing to become violent
Lmao goof, fighting jhadists is based
@@effexonthere is no peer pressure, country full of iso c"vcks
Yes! My son saw the horrors in Iraq that this young man so casually tosses about. It's a fucking nightmare hell on Earth. I wonder how he would look at his statements from eyes that had seen real war.
Whatif killed it with this, the other dude can't seem to think outside of his own view.
yeah his questions aren’t* very good
F15 comment tells me he doesn't get it.
It'll be bloody Kansas and the Troubles. Lynch mobs will target recidivist aliens that get released on Bond or not held for ICE detainers, and parents will get brutalized or ☠️ when they try to get their minor children who identify 🏳️⚧️ from blue states but get confronted by violent alphabet types "defending" them
Agreed.
Yeah he seems like he has a woman's brain.
@@sonnyb7612made me lol
It’s really clear watching this how big the divide between younger and older people is.
Good point.
Dan's argument that the American elite is still unified has one major fracture point in DEI. It seems very clear to me that Republicans have begun to learn that DEI implies middle class plus non-progressive whites are not getting into places of high status, eg no more Harvard, Princeton, Yale and cushy PE jobs for your kids. It's one of the few times the civil rights establishment has really smitten the elite stratus, and it's being used disproportionately against red state elites as well. That seems like a pretty big straw that can break the camel's back.
It will I am in Oklahoma and keep this in my clipboard 👉The Ivy League Standard, Obama's Alma Mater 👉Claudine Gay steps down in the face of intense scrutiny following controversial congressional testimony about antisemitism on campus. The resignation yesterday of Claudine Gay, the president of Harvard University in Cambridge, Massachusetts, has shocked many academics.Jan 3, 2024
Anytime I get called poorly educated out she comez
I think something that complicates this is that we have a relatively soft police state, at least compared to the USSR. You can't generally be thrown in jail for doing something racist. But you can be sued under civil rights for hostile work environment. And CEOs aren't safe even if there's no formal legal attack. Papa John's got kicked out of his own company for neutrally saying the N word! When the threshold for punishment is that low and arbitrary, mostly amounting to being pro or anti regime, almost no one with power will speak up, especially outside those in rare safe positions. And those positions are cut back every year (see trump). But, because everyone has too keep their mouth shut and head down, no matter what they actually think, it's very hard to judge what the true state of play is, and what would happen if the pressure was let off a bit.
You mention elites a lot, but DEI/Affirmative Action + massive job losses shipped overseas has lead to an absolute destruction of the white working and middle class
Well said.
As a big fan of WhatifAlthist, please Rudyard, you need to develop your listening skills.
I struggle with this too, but you need to allow people to finish their sentences, even if you know what they are about to say.
Thank you for bringing this great discussion to all of us here on UA-cam. Peace.
Oftentimes that appears to be an issue with these remote podcasts due to delay
I thought the Yid guy was interrupting WhatIfAutist quite a bit more
If there is a Civil War, it won't be a straight up fight. It will be asymmetrical. messy, and occur in unexpected places and times. In such a conflict, the movement and coordination of large mechanized forces and or air support is problematic.
I agree. Bombings, kidnappings and assassinations seem more likely than large pitched battles.
@@jacobhesington6725 and neighborhood raids and attacks on infrastructure to weaken power bases in certain locations.
So it'll be The Troubles?
5th generation warfare, basically all of society itself is a military target. The closest example would be the balkan conflicts, but still not quite 5th gen.
Also the American military has never won against a gurilla force and none of them had the ability to disrupt production of military goods.
Rudyard’s point that Dan was projecting the social-political structure of technology onto the country as a whole was an absolutely brutal kill-shot. Nailed him to the wall there.
Yeah, but... 😉
yarvinites in shambles after this
I've come back here to comment after going through some of the @WhatifAltHist content catalog and just want to say thanks for introducing me to such an amazing human... This kid produces bangers! Such an awesome guest. Love this pod
Dan's arguments are based on his perception. His perception is a small bubble that he correlates to the rest of the country. He doesn't realize how different this country is for the vast majority who struggle day to day. I don't always agree with Rudyard, but his logic is sound, and he doesn't suffer from a fish lens perspective of society. Overall, it was a very enjoyable show. More of the same, please.
He's 22 with a Marxist biased educational lens. He's intelligent but has no clue how the world currently exists outside his bubble. A bubble that thinks the right is actually a left wing movement trying to implement total state control and armed to the teeth rather than just wanting small government and to live their individual lives without interference.
I gather the left can't imagine the world outside left wing collectivism and therefore the farthest right you can be is still left.
They don't know what a conservative actually is.
I don't think they've ever met one
Yeah, but...
Agreed, I love the convos. And I agree about Dan, but at the same time we have to recognize this is a live conversation. I am sure I would not present my ideas nearly as clearly as either of them. More please!
They don't get it.
I see a lot of self-insert in his arguments. Just because he and his friends are not ready to pick up a weapon, it doesn’t mean that no one else is.
Rudyard, you crushed it!
Dan says, "What, they wont pay their taxes anymore?"
I like this idea
Yes. Businesses simply don’t remit payment to the irs. Be it withholding or their quarterly and annual payments. If that happened, widespread in a place like Texas and it would be a problem. The feds could probably work through the banking system for recourse. Still a huge problem.
Taxes are the problem.
Lets say Texas became the "Provisional government", and declared federal tax amnesty for all Amrican citizen within the borders of Texas. What then? the "80,000" IRS agents would storm in? Doubtful
I would say - besides open violent conflict - that an "economic embargo" would be the next most open sign of rebellion or a Civil Fissure.
We need taxes for society to function. Only children think "taxation is theft@@Wonderwall627
The Dan fellow with the empty bookshelves reeks of naivete and [privilege] (though I hate that latter word). Rudyard's claims are based on some pretty complex analysis which can't really be explained in a few sentences without making some big assumptions. Dan, instead of actually wrestling with the ideas or pushing into the assumptions made in this interview, seems to retreat to Bill Mahr style "well I don't see this happening so I think you are wrong" arguments.
Dan's arguments seem more like neoliberal cope than actual historical analysis. The claim that the 'elites' of society are somehow united boggles the mind. Has he not heard of the concept of elite overproduction? There are now more people who either are or want to be elites, but fewer and fewer slots for them to actually show that they are elites. Ambitious people tend to seek status over wealth -- with Donald Trump being a prime example. The elites are in competition with each other for this status, and the way that they can garner influence and power is by appealing to the general masses and their grievences. This is supposedly the very strength of democracy.
Right now there are lots of non-elite people that are struggling and lots of divisions between those people. Even if the elite class is somehow a monolith, ambitious individuals will take advantage of the chaos of the ordinary people to advance their positions -- they may even morally take their side. Tiberius Grachus seems like the ancient equivalent of Elon Musk. Both came from positions of power in their respective societies, yet both saw publicly identified more with the struggles of the ordinary persons over the fads of their fellow aristocrats. Even today there is debate over whether Tiberius really cared about the workers and veterans of Rome, or if he was just doing it for clout. The same can be said about Elon. And even Trump.
But it really doesn't matter if such people are sincere. What matters is that the dissatisfaction of the lower classes is powerful fuel for ambitious elites that belive they can advance their own cause by advancing others. Its weird that Dan simply doesn't see this.
PS: I thought the antifa riots and the race riots of 2020 would put to end any belief that we are somehow less capable or less willing to do violence today than any other time in history. sheesh.
Lmfao I Gree Dan is not aware of average america
Your last comment on 2020 is spot on: You have to be a Goldfish-brained creature to not have seen all of that year as crossing a specific Rubicon.
“I don’t think it will happen” is this guys answer to everything. Ok bro nice contribution.
"They couldn't possibly have a second one."
-Some Japanese officer maybe
He sounds like he watches main stream media a bit much. His brainwashing is getting in the way.
I mean if your goal is to accurately predict and forecast, this is the smartest way to go given that rare events like civil war, revolution, government collapse etc are... rare events that are unlikely to happen in any country in any year, even in the most unstable of countries
His grandfather's father met men who fought in the last American Civil War, and he cannot conceive of a second one. Classic midwit.
@@bl8413 Yet he wasn't giving any substantial reasoning for why he disagreed lol. Lots of "I don't think" and "I don't feel." Buddy, no one felt it before it came crashing down in the past, either. Little by little and then all at once, remember? The anecdotal "I don't think" answer is ironically a better argument for why it would happen than for why it wouldn't.
33:45 Most people don't realize how desperate the average American is. Or don't want to.
It's bad
"King and his derelict spending habits..." Tell me how that's different than the current administration.
Rudyard is more correct when it comes to local military assets the majority of combat units especially within the United States are in the National Guard. yes and the Texas National Guard has f-16s.
But Texas has no Navy and the Regular Air Force would wipe the TANG. There's also three US Army divisions sitting at Ft Hood for just such an eventuality.
@@aelfredrex8354 100% of those forces stay unified with D.C.?
@@SweatersithCertainly enough to backfoot the Texas Guard till the other divisions start moving in. They'd send air cav units to take Austin immediately. I'm sure there's plans somewhere for just such an emergency.
@@aelfredrex8354 The question is though will Texas do this by itself no, also that's an assumption that the Colonel and Sergeant Majors side with the government which that all depends on the circumstances that lead to this conflict. Which I’m not confident enough to certify which is correct but you are making some errors in your assumptions. Yes the Navy is a powerful force and on any given day has more firepower than most small nations let alone a state. The problem with your assumption though is that at any given time the Navy battle group carriers are split up into 3 modes refit and recovery which is usually 7 to 8 months which is 1/3 of them. The ready reserve which is another third which typically can be rapidly deployed if they need to and when I say rapidly they can get it ready within two to three months. And then the active carriers they are usually patrolling the major oceans and are therefore weeks if not months away from the United states at any given time. Also the remaining Vessels of the Navy are usually attached to one of these groups so it's not like they can peel off some surface vessels to deal with the rebellion unless they are willing to risk their $100 billion carrier. Second your assumption about air power is been proven wrong time and time again, we were able to run all those sorties in Iraq and Afghanistan because we had air superiority in the case of any potential conflagration between the federal government and the states the air would be contested. Also the wings of the Air Force have been greatly eroded because of the war In Ukraine and the wars in Afghanistan and Iraq I mean we’re at the point where a lot of older systems have to rummage parts from museums. Also both sides would not want to hit vital infrastructure or cities because that is where the wealth is and let's be honest if you're a conquering army or defending army you want to make sure that your wealth isn't destroyed because you either want to claim it or you want to keep it so that will be eliminating factor on sorties as well. Also air power is of limited use in cities and in mountains, and not even coming up with the target saturation problem so the federal government or the states could run fantastic sorties for maybe three months but then after that it would have to drastically reduce because that will be their available storage used up and then usually five to six years to get a new munitions factory going.
What I’m saying or taking a long time to say, no one side has the absolute advantage it will be a fight now who wins in the long term I cannot say it because there’s too many factors to include such as the training and personnel involved and potential foreign intervention along with political and strategic considerations that are outside the scope of this discussion.
It's no longer Fort Hood though now it's Fort Shawniqua McFoodstamps
Revolutions and civil wars are historically always fought by a small group of people. In the US. Revolutionary war only like 1% of the population fought.
Civil wars also start small and occur when government fails in its duty causing people to take matter into their own hands.
You look at the vigilantes in NY kicking out squatters because the police aren't doing anything. Or the case in Texas where the farmer shot immigrants on his land. It doesn't take long for people to band together locally to defy the government and for that defiance to spread
BINGO. You see signs like this everywhere.
Being a college dropout IS a credential these days.
35:00 tell me you’ve never been to Texas without telling me you’ve never been to Texas.
You mean Dan? Yes Texas has a strong and rapidly growing independence movement that Dan doesn't seem to know about. The establishment has been trying to keep a lid on it but every official who publicly denounces it has not done well in subsequent polls. Rudyard likely knows about it and he does live in Texas.
The Texas National Guard is one of the largest militaries on the planet.
I’m a millennial and this interview is why I’m so disconnected from my generation. They do not have the knowledge and respect for history. They think humanity has changed when it really hasn’t.
Yep, Rudyard really did a very good job. The problem with Dan is that he uses all of his experience as the base for his extrapolation. He does not know how to put himself in other people's shoes.
Agreed.
@@ilevakam316Agree, love his analysis usually but I’m having some Gellman amnesia after seeing how he looks at the world from this very narrow tech elite view, and fails to see what most Americans actually see every day.
Which is ironic since he’s always talking about “mood affiliation.” Love this podcast regardless, I think just watching for the last three months has really changed my opinions on a few things.
You can tell he lives in a spoiled bubble. His pov was asinine in some places, clueless in others.
tunnel vision
How many excuses does one need to trot out before they realize they might be wrong.
Rudyard was making sense, even if I didn’t agree with everything he said. This other guy seemed to just disagree and dismiss everything he said out of hand, with one excuse after another.
Past performance is usually a good indicator of future results. How does this guy not understand this?
Yes. Yes they do have air assets... and look chud, you cannot cruise missile an insurgency into submission.
It feels like goggles guy suffers from a fair amount of normalcy bias. 🤷♂️
I think he does and coping.
Rudyard one of your biggest fans here. I think you’re underestimating the impact of an economic decline or even collapse.
Hunger will drive people to violence quicker than most other things.
Additionally, homeboy being like “military will clap back with cruise missiles and F-15s” ON THEIR OWN POPULATION?!???!….
Yeah that’ll cause massive unrest amongst the population and within military ranks.
IMO if there is a Second Civil War it would be more akin to ‘The Troubles’ era in Northern Ireland. Also I don’t think Texas relies on California taxes as much as Dan believes
No one relies on California Taxes as much as anyone believes: all the subsidies received from the government to a state... go to fund federal X in that state. Texan people have their own economy, and it doesn't need federal taxes at all.
That idea that 'the country' needs the 'big cities' to even survive is the wierdest line of cope I have ever heard a US Citizen speak.
I work for my state's transportation division and ....well ...we collect our own state taxes, Dan.
37:00 blacks rioted for 2 straight years, DURING COVID lol wtf Dan smokin
This guy with the Vision Pro goggles talking about how people “work in San Francisco but are from Texas” totally ignorant that the vast majority of people don’t have anywhere to go. And in no part of this discussion was immigration mentioned, which is only adding to that pressure.
44:30 “they don’t have any air assets?” What the hell do you think an “Air National Guard” is?
I didn’t realize he was only 22. Wtf.
Photographic memory is awesome. He reads a lot and actually remembers enough to see patterns.
It's not that surprising. His videos are very shallow and jump to conclusions a lot and it's apparent from this conversation that he's vulnerable to the twitter algorithm.
His videos are some of the most In depth on UA-cam. Lol tf? I don't agree with everything he says but my man usually reads 3-5 books on a subject before he makes his predictions.
He sounds and reasons like a 22 year old.
@MattSpoon07 So easy to criticise. Much harder to put the effort in to add to the conversation. Make your own video about why and people will respect your critique.
"They dont have air assets"... lmao rhe AIR NATIONAL GUARD exists 😂😂😂
Rudyard was arguing with a woman the whole time.
The hosts of this podcast seem very out of touch will rural America and their loyalties and sentiments towards urbanites.
To me this kind of cements the idea that it’s not gonna be a civil war but probably a French Revolution style, ironically, total reactionary sweep through the country. They might just not see it coming until it’s on the news and only a handful of days later at their place of living. Revolutions creep up and pounce.
22:43: "Like Dune."
Love this guy.
"Life's a bitch and then you die." This is a big American saying: it shows the fatalistic side of American culture. This is a strong component too of US culture.
I like Rudyard's shpiel. It would be good if Dan blueskyed with the ideas more than just going for refutations the whole way.
Whatifalthist is 1000000% correct. No one knows shit until shit hits the fan. Even though I don’t want it to happen I can totally see it going down. It’s very on the surface at the moment. Everyone can sort of feel it.
I have a feeling that shit's going to hit the fan in spectacular fashion in the next few days.
>The blaspheming of Easter
>The recent sacrifice of the Red Heifer
>The pattern of the upcoming eclipse and the previous two drawing the first and last letter of the Hebrew Alphabet
>The Devil's Comet passing by Earth on the same day of the Eclipse
>The war in Israel
>The recent trend of the rich and powerful investing in emergency bunkers
There's too much cosmically significant crap going on for it to just all amount to nothing.
I didn't expect this one. Awesome to see the meeting of two of the best podcasts on YT - excited to tune in for more.
The states sending aid to Texas is in support of an international invasion, not a state v state conflict. Once a democrat/socialist state defends the invasion and is aggressive against pro Texas interests, the match is lit.
One of the best interviews I've seen in a long time. I appreciate that both Dan and Rudyard used logic to present their arguments. While intelligent, this podcast left me with the obvious impression that Rudyard has a much more 'in touch' understanding of where many Americans are today. Dan seems like a good dude, and very intelligent, but his perceptions seem to be heavily dependent on preconceived notions that don't stand up well to current examples which demonstrate history is repeating itself again, and things will probably get ugly soon. Ironically, "experts" throughout history have made this mistake. It's coming again.
Dan wants to believe it can’t happen here.
Rudyard rocks. I an 75 and have been a lefty all of my life. Rudyard has the best handle on reality.
What happens when we don’t have the economic stability that we used to have as a nation? Which is likely bound to happen sooner rather than later. With all the division is it really outside of the realm of possibility that a civil war of some kind can happen??
and AI is creeping into business at this point. If AI takes 2% of jobs each year, after 20 years the work force will have been reduced by more than 30 percent. I think it would be called a job market collapse long before that.
His disillusionment with people not loving their home depends on location. The renters don't care about place. You get around generational towns, and they will fight to the death for their farms and grand paps home.
You guys are completely wrong, have some serious denial, and you’re not very knowledgeable about the state of the average American. You seem to be in a bit of a bubble. Rudyard is right and it was annoying listening to you question everything he said when he is right.
Yeah, I think this actually proves one of Rudyard's greatest points that the elite is so out of touch from the rest of us
With regards to the technological gap between the citizenry and the government, I think that there is actually a smaller gap than you would think. In Afghanistan, and Iraq we were going up against insurgents without a whole lot of training and who had very limited technology. They didn't have night vision, they didn't have thermal optics, and they often didn't even have weapons that were suited for a modern war, and the groups we were fighting against generally had no more than 50000 combatants at any given time. Another thing is that proxy forces that we used in those wars generally aren't counted in our casualty count, and when you account for them the idea that *the united states kills 40-50 combatants for every one they lose* is basically a lie, and we would likely take many more casualties if we didn't have the support of proxy forces. Now lastly, if there was some sort of civil conflict within the united states we would be facing a totally different enemy, one equipped with Night Vision and advanced thermal optics, one that had the tools and the skills to quickly create new and innovative weapons of war that would allow them to somewhat close the gap with our conventional forces.
I can confirm that the military currently is mostly conservative and libertarian. Also the National Guard does have air assets, SF, and armored units. Most military personal wont go against the Constitution or kill innocent people, they will abandoned their positions if a civil war starts.
@@A_Caat Myself, I was in the Marines and currently guard 😂
Its ok Rudyard, you can lead a horse to water....
The guy Rudyard is talking to 😂 it won’t rain cuz it’s sunny today
ikr, dude is living in his own bubble, people like him are gonna be the ones who suffers the most when things go south
I'm not going to assert that we will or will not have a civil war in the next year, but the argument that we won't because there isn't a strong geographical identity isn't very robust.
A lot of people moved during the civil war. Many Northerners went to fight for the South, and many Southerners traveled to join the Northern states. It was just elites that moved, but average people. It broke apart families (who later found themselves fighting their own fathers, brothers, and sons).
Remember, the Civil War WAS about slavery, as it is enshrined in each Confederate state's succession declaration. It WASN'T about states right, as we understand it today, as it was Northern/Union states who were not abiding by federal law (i.e. asserting their state rights) that required them to send escaped slaves back to slave owners in Southern/Confederate states, and Confederates were asserting such state rights didn't exist.
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I don't think the US military is going to support any side of a civil war.
The US military has a very strong legal and social tradition of NOT interfering in politics. Legally, it doesn't even have the authority to act on US territory, except for law enforcement on military bases (where civilians are usually released, or at worse handed over to civilian authorities for prosecution).
Moreover, while yes the military leans right, service members are a pretty diverse group (in that they come from all over the place). None of them are going to want to strike civilians living back home.
While there may be some who break the chain of command, or go AWOL to join one group or the other, I think most of the US military would sit it out.
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I think what we're missing here is context. If history is contextual, the same situation leading to different results based on context in which it happens, then the present (history in the making) is also contextual.
For example 53:00-ish, paraphrase: "...conservative elites in the military could defect." That assumes that it's leftist elitists who are in power. It may well be rightist elites who are in power and leftist elites who have to "defect." Or some other situation entirely.
What exactly happens there is going to have a big impact on any potential resulting conflict, whether civil war, or short of violence.
Answer for why they’ll get involved: greed, ambition, and opportunity.
@@The_preserver_x16 I won't say that doesn't exist in the military, as it's made up of humans, but it certainly hasn't been my experience with U.S. service members. The (very) few people I've run across who are far left, or far right, are more the true believer type, the ladder climbers tend to get out after their first term.
You REALLY need to do more research on Texas.....Texas has its own state military....Texas has the highest GDP next to Cali.....Texas is probly the only state that could sirvive outside the Union....not to mention...how many states would join Tx.if it were to leave the union....there is also an active movement ongoing right now, for Texas to leave the union. And Texas would probly be better off leaveing the union.
46:00
This is extremely misleading. Red states certainly do not *"need"* California taxes. Without federal funding, red states would instantly end welfare and subsidies to blue hives inside red states and they would be essentially under siege. This isnt unheard of, extremely similar circumstances during the Yugoslav civil wars. There would be a mass exodus of diversity fleeing to blue states just as there are already masses of whites fleeing blue states at a rapid pace. You cannot throw a rock in Appalachia without hitting a white NJ, NY, MD, or Pennsylvania refugee. I mean that in all seriousness. The only difference in these white flight refugees is they bring money to buy up real estate quickly.
But back to the point...Texas is a lot like Russia in terms of economy, and I think a lot of former powerhouse states would renew and revive their dead industries. Take North Carolina, South Carolina and Georgia for example. Wonderful farms that are federally subsidized to grow stuff no one actually wants (soy) without this market interference from feds they would grow more food and more importantly likely have a resurgence in textiles.
Have to agree if Texas is ever freed from the federal government I can think of two industries that cause their economy to boom. Oil and steel
This isn't the same in all of them, Indiana would suffer if that happened.
It all comes down to the localities and their economic situations. Some will prosper, some will suffer. It isn't just the cites
I wish that what you were saying is true, but it is not true. The red states are net tax consumers. Even though the blue states have more welfare Queens, they also have all of the big corporations.
"I think you've been projecting the social structure inside technology across the rest of the population"
In other words, the people you know do not reflect the rest of the country.
This guy is exactly like most of the world in 1914.
I bet he is drinking a $10 coffe that was delivered on a bicycle, and he thinks a farmer in Colorado or a fisherman in Louisiana does the same thing
I am a long time follower of both Rudyard and MOZ and it’s interesting to see both followings clash in the comment section.
I remember graduating with a brand new engineering degree after having believed the song and dance of the Great Shortage of Engineers. A year and a half later I finally landed a job at Boeing. What happened? I could not even get interviews. If a young man with a degree can just get interviews, he can blow 9 out of 10 of them, he only has to succeed once to get a job. But why could I not get interviews? Because every F-ing recruiter refused to take my resume unless I had at least one year of job as an engineer experience after college.
I remember how angry and frustrated I was.
Now fast forward from 1983 to 2024. Most of our manufacturing base is outsourced. Many of our engineering jobs that are actually engineering are outsourced. Remaining jobs for those with engineering degrees are office cubicle jobs that don't involve any design or technical problem solving (why is the factory line not moving, oh that's right the factory is in China and some Chinese engineer is figuring that out). So our engineering grads are like every other college grad: competing for bureaucracy jobs. The argument in favor of "affirmative action" and "DEI" is that most of these jobs don't require the best and brightest anyway. So just hire the skin color or sexual orientation that is in fashion. Which presently is not white males.
So now we have millions of white males who cannot get their first real job. In a job market that is even crappier than the one I dealt with.
When they get their first job, they find that a studio apartment rents for $1800 per month. You are not getting married and having kids if that is all you can afford.
Add in millions of ex-military, every one of whom owns guns. Plus former police officers who quit in disgust or took their retirement pension as soon as they earned it. Plus the fact that not a single Trump voter believes the election of 2020 was not stolen. Some Biden voters know that election was stolen for the same Reason OJ knows who killed his ex-wife.
So who is going to pilot these F-15s against this angry constituency? I tell the tutti frutti urban libs of Seattle that from North Bend all the way to Minnesota is Trump Country. No power on Earth can keep that road open if we close it.
People stopped studying history. As a kid in the 80s, i was mocked by my teachers for reading history because it was " A waste of time."
Shelf guy seems to be in total denial. This is more painful than a bullet wound impacting my fucking rib.
I know, buddy is gonna be lost when stuff escalates 😂
@JustaRandomDude1791 which, to be fair. I can see why he's in utter denial. If you and I were diabetic or in a wheelchair. Yea, we'd be in the same boat at some capacity. But really, you can't deny at this rate how far shit has gotten.
@@UncleBaconMan Yes, you're right. Looking down this situation with a disability would be terrifying.
I remember cringing at people 20 years ago talking about the end being near and prepping, which was kinda cringy. But now I've gotten into shape and spend a significant amount of time and money developing skills and putting back because of how wild stuff is getting. If you don't see it now, you probably never will.
I loved the conversation on civil war, those two are arguing the thoughts I've been having
Is 2024 and these hosts still don’t know anything about 5th generation warfare or asymmetrical warfare. It’s time for them to read up quick….
@whatatlist's you got him! He was so flustered! But by you winning we all lose😢
When he says that it's just a small number of people who are willing to die for the country, this is where he is so wrong. It's not even about the country. It's about these young men who can't find a girl for a new wife because the women have set their standard so high.
And not being able to afford a home.
And not seeing a future. That is the majority of the young man of America today.
great show fella's! thanks 🙏
I can’t believe I listened to people who have little to no military knowledge talk about military matters for as long as I did.
much more professional and dignified debate than I've heard in a long time television.
I think.. I feel… my brain is as empty as my bookshelf
He doesn't realize National Guards and Reserve units have the exact same weapons and training as the Active Duty military. They may not have nukes and cruise missiles, but they have literally everything else, including the number of troops.
Great show! Subscribed!
Texas national guard does have air assets. They have F16s and reaper drones
43:35 this is that naive argument that the extremely advanced logistically intense equipment is going to solve everything. That is not shown to be the case historically.
These hosts got a bit emotional
Can someone please link the study being referenced around 1:15:30? That's a pretty big claim to make and I'd like to research further.
I've listened to many of his vids. Very informative
Love WhatIfAltHist, need to enforce microphone policy I think. Hard to stay engaged when interviewee sounds far away/echoey
The "it can't happen today" guy is living in denial.
"Under agi governance" refers to receiving government assistance, especially in the world, for those without jobs or in poverty. It signifies being registered as unemployed and getting financial support from the government. The term "agi dole" specifically refers to the money provided by the government to those in need. In American English, "under agi governance" is synonymous with being on welfare, receiving government aid due to unemployment. Overall, these terms highlight the financial aid given to individuals facing economic challenges, emphasizing support for those without jobs or in financial distress.
Great conversation. Gave me a lot to think about. Thank you.
Not even 5 minutes in & i love this talk already. Thanks!
The main reasons I don't think the rich people are all on the same side is:
- rich people tend to be high on openness, low on agreeableness and power hungry. While this can lend itself to coalitions in order to make more money and oust common enemies, it does not lend itself to following a single unified faction in lock step and taking orders from bureaucrats without complaint
- look at all the cancelled elites who have been thrown under the bus. At the VERY least, those people and their followers are now an opposing faction. This is an entirely normal phenomenon with regards to power structures in general: people in high status groups tend to be "frenemies" nominally working toward the same goal which they rely on to maintain/elevate their position, but waiting for the chance to throw rivals under the bus at the opportune moment to advance ahead of them. When this happens enough times, the ousted members have an easy time consolidating into their own group bent on undermining the original.
- it's gotten to the point where the elites are now trying to throw each other in jail. people on the same side don't do that
- not every rich person is a bureaucrat from Washington, corporate or academia.
- even if they are making money from it, if you have 50 million dollars or more, the price you pay for not being able to express yourself and having to act like a whipped, feminized zombie of political correctness is not worth it for a lot of them.
Some people will do absolutely anything for money. The ultra rich are obsessed with money to a point of it being a mental illness. They would literally sell out their own mother and children in order to attain more money and status. First they will sell out your mom and your kids though. Look at self proclaimed philanthropist Bill Gates. Look at all of the times Microsoft was sued because of his greedy, dirty tactics designed to hurt others and enrich himself. Anyone that calls him a philanthropist is either paid off or simply fooled by his propaganda.
39:30
Does the gentleman not realize that tens of thousands of vets are better armed and training more now than they did in service? That these guys are a Lion's share of the "right wing radicals"...i.e. Mike Glover, Garand Thumb, TacticalRifleman, etc, etc, etc. Right wing and Guntubers are this conglomeration of people training and preparing for the inevitable.
What’s this guys name Dan? His point that other states wouldn’t come and travel to another state to help out didn’t age that well did it as of today Arkansas has sent troops to Texas fully armed. This guy needs to get away from the intellectual college scene and actually visit America once in a while.
Whatifalt has the more accirate view in my opinion, the other guy suggesting most people in america are close to their big break is ridiculous, he has no idea of the poverty in america.
When you're talking about the elite and talking about the 1% versus the 10%. I cannot forget about the managerial class, and there are the ones who hit the revolutions into overdrive and bureaucrat is it
I was born in a small cow town of 10'000. moved to the nearest city for education, then start to employment history. Just as I was ready to return home, the economy died and leaving was a great idea. Back for 30 years, happy as a clam.
Around 44:00 someone mentions the National Guard not having air assets. We literally have the AIR National Guard.
I think the best model for the neat future in the United States is something close to the “Troubles” in N. Ireland.
Very interesting guests .
Wait what you got Rudyard??? That’s a crazy get
Ditto! I never saw his face before, nice to know what he looks like
Rudyard definitely won the debate
Dan got some flack in the comments but I think his questions about what would the concrete manifestations of the beginning of a civil war look like are absolutely crucial and need to be ask and answered.
And maybe I'm not listening to the right discussions but I've yet to hear people discuss very specifically and concretely how a civil war would actually break out in the United States. Rudyard's answers were well thought out and plausible.
The back and forth was awesome, enlightening, and a great iteration in the civil war discussion.
For a second I thought Dan was actually Chris D'Elia and was wondering why a comedian was brought on to discuss these topics lol
The energy is there but it’s underneath the surface. It will take a catalyst to precipitate that energy into action. I don’t want this to happen but I think the die is cast.
With all the chaos, someone will do something stupid
1:16:21 if I am recalling correctly it is called a “conditional hypothetical.”
1:15:46 what is the name of the concept they are talking about?
Also trying to figure it out.
I think they’re talking about conditional reasoning .
Maybe “counter factual thinking”
I believe it may be a hypothetical syllogism
After 20-30 min of googling, it appears to be a reference to a greentext that you can find if you search for "did you know that most people (95%+) with less than 90 IQ can't understand conditional hypotheticals". I couldn't find any academic studies on that specific claim.
@@namenamenamename7224 👍👍
47:13: “The average American is always thinking they’re just one big break away from making it big” 🤦♂️🤦♂️🤦♂️
More like one big break from getting off living paycheck to paycheck smh
Yeah I laughed out loud when he said that. The Americans around me are thinking they are one problem away from bankruptcy.
@imaxinsertnounherex as a young college educated father, its legit scary. Work is not secure and you always have bills to pay
This exactly shows his disconnection from "average people". Most think they are one politician's dumb idea from their life being destroyed.
That was the most clueless statement in the whole thing