2024 YR4 updates and sources *January 27th, 2025* -6% chance of impact: groups.io/g/mpml/topic/2024_yr4_torino_scale_3/110849089 -Recommendations for how to respond to an impact: www.unoosa.org/res/oosadoc/data/documents/2017/aac_105c_12017crp/aac_105c_12017crp_25_0_html/AC105_C1_2017_CRP25E.pdf -NASA Sentry data about 2024 YR4: cneos.jpl.nasa.gov/sentry/details.html#?des=2024%20YR4 In addition to this, the Wikipedia article for this asteroid is being kept up-to-date by actual astronomers studying the asteroid, and should remain factual. en.wikipedia.org/wiki/2024_YR4 *January 31st, 2025* This became slightly out of date before I even published it lmao 2024 YR4's impact probability, not including negative observations, has been increased to 1.6% (1 in 63). This is not unexpected. It is expected that 2024 YR4's impact probability will rise as more trajectories are ruled out, before quickly dropping to zero later. *February 2nd, 2025* Impact probability lowered to 1.4% (1 in 71).
What are the chances that it just burns up in the atmosphere like the Chelyabinsk asteroid? obviously for this size it would be worst case scenario if that was the case, due to the increased damage from the shockwave and thermal radiation being less absorbed, same reason why a nuke would be detonated above a city and not directly on the ground I believe for maximum devastation.
@@AntagonizingPotato depends on the angle, but it’s pretty similar in size to tunguska which exploded in the atmosphere in 1908 and didn’t reach the ground
If it impacts in an unpopulated area, it could honestly be a net gain for whichever country it lands in. I guarantee scientists from all around the world would be interested in studying a fresh asteroid impact site of that magnitude.
@@cylle3784 Going with Kyplanet's nuke analogy, yes, it would damage a localized area of the ecosystem. But we've detonated plenty of nukes across the planet in our time without global ecological or economic catastrophes. I'm not saying there would be zero cost to the nation that the asteroid landed in, I'm suggesting there might be more gain than loss.
@@Melonist That's not true at all, there's plenty of places 2024 YR4 could hit where there aren't any towns or cities. If you zoom on the map where the asteroid *could* hit there aren't many places with cities or towns. Even if it were to hit somewhere populated, as stated in the video, we could just evacuate them.
If you drive through any interstate through the western United States you can find places where a random nuclear explosion could go by completely unnoticed. Parts of the Rust Belt are like this too. In this particular case, we're talking about countries that largely intersect the Amazon rainforest, several spots in Sub-Saharan Africa, and India. India is a very heavily-populated country that might face the worst consequences, but I could see a random meteor missing most of the populated spaces in Venezuela or Columbia.
Thank you for the clear information. I myself have fallen victim to fear mongering in the past, and it’s such a relief to have a channel tell it straight. Thank you for putting myself and many others at ease.
Really shines a light that the ones most at risk of getting nuked from space are also amongst the poorest and least capable of doing anything about it. No time like the present to start making changes in our lives..
A devastating asteroid hitting Earth should be considered an obligation for humanity as a whole, not just the nations it affects. That might be wishful thinking, but it just makes logical sense. Even if you're a full blown misanthropist and don't care about people's lives, it could have a devastating ecological impact.
1.6% is a pretty high probability for such a drastic event. Its much more rare for your house to burn down or to die at forty but we generally insure those events
50 metres? I'm not really understanding, that sounds like it doesn't have potential to make it through the atmosphere and actually impact with much large debris.
because we don’t know it’s exact orbit we know it’s true orbit exists on a line, and part of that line crosses earth (which is why the impact sites are in a line) we just don’t know what point on the line it is
Why would people be worried about an asteroid that could impact Earth? It's like almost definitely it would just explode in the sky somewhere, or even if it did cause the apocalypse, who wouldn't want to rather live in an apocalypse?
When you told us not to be worried, you should have just said it would hit the equator. I'm guessing very little of your crowd is coming from the suspected landing sites
good idea we should spend 30 billion dollars to desecrate and modify a 50 year old retired museum piece designed to take people to low earth orbit for a couple weeks send a several year crewed mission to this little space rock instead of shooting it with a cheap barebones satellite bus a hundredth the price
@@theKam0087 probably a thousandth the price. but also it would be cool but also it could be a remake of the movie but irl but also the profit from the movie would make a big very many $ so it would be a net profit in the end
You know when a giant space rock is going to hit Earth in the future? When NOBODY is talking about it until we see it in the sky. By that time all the world's billionaires are already safe in their underground bunkers.
no, only the asteroids that have orbits that intersect with earth have a chance of hitting earth some random rock in the asteroid belt isn’t going to spontaneously shoot towards us
Don't see how anyone reasonable could conclude clickbait. The title says what the video is, he didn't bury the lead and he didn't exaggerate or fearmonger.
2024 YR4 updates and sources
*January 27th, 2025*
-6% chance of impact: groups.io/g/mpml/topic/2024_yr4_torino_scale_3/110849089
-Recommendations for how to respond to an impact: www.unoosa.org/res/oosadoc/data/documents/2017/aac_105c_12017crp/aac_105c_12017crp_25_0_html/AC105_C1_2017_CRP25E.pdf
-NASA Sentry data about 2024 YR4: cneos.jpl.nasa.gov/sentry/details.html#?des=2024%20YR4
In addition to this, the Wikipedia article for this asteroid is being kept up-to-date by actual astronomers studying the asteroid, and should remain factual. en.wikipedia.org/wiki/2024_YR4
*January 31st, 2025*
This became slightly out of date before I even published it lmao
2024 YR4's impact probability, not including negative observations, has been increased to 1.6% (1 in 63). This is not unexpected. It is expected that 2024 YR4's impact probability will rise as more trajectories are ruled out, before quickly dropping to zero later.
*February 2nd, 2025*
Impact probability lowered to 1.4% (1 in 71).
What are the chances that it just burns up in the atmosphere like the Chelyabinsk asteroid? obviously for this size it would be worst case scenario if that was the case, due to the increased damage from the shockwave and thermal radiation being less absorbed, same reason why a nuke would be detonated above a city and not directly on the ground I believe for maximum devastation.
@@AntagonizingPotato depends on the angle, but it’s pretty similar in size to tunguska which exploded in the atmosphere in 1908 and didn’t reach the ground
@@Kyplanet893 Alright thanks 👍
Chelyabinsk meteor
@@rplacefunny7423 chelyabinsk was way smaller
"The 2024 YR4 situation is CRAZY"
“Apophis NEEDS to stop…”
“It’s over for Didymos..” (diddy!?!?)
“Pluto is BACK (It gets WORSE)…”
@@Flesh_Wizard “Ceres RESPONDED…”
“Bennu situation gets WORSE”
If it impacts in an unpopulated area, it could honestly be a net gain for whichever country it lands in. I guarantee scientists from all around the world would be interested in studying a fresh asteroid impact site of that magnitude.
It would damage the ecosystem
@@cylle3784 Going with Kyplanet's nuke analogy, yes, it would damage a localized area of the ecosystem. But we've detonated plenty of nukes across the planet in our time without global ecological or economic catastrophes. I'm not saying there would be zero cost to the nation that the asteroid landed in, I'm suggesting there might be more gain than loss.
Problem being that (barring places like Antarctica or central Greenland) unpopulated places don't really exist.
@@Melonist That's not true at all, there's plenty of places 2024 YR4 could hit where there aren't any towns or cities. If you zoom on the map where the asteroid *could* hit there aren't many places with cities or towns. Even if it were to hit somewhere populated, as stated in the video, we could just evacuate them.
If you drive through any interstate through the western United States you can find places where a random nuclear explosion could go by completely unnoticed. Parts of the Rust Belt are like this too. In this particular case, we're talking about countries that largely intersect the Amazon rainforest, several spots in Sub-Saharan Africa, and India. India is a very heavily-populated country that might face the worst consequences, but I could see a random meteor missing most of the populated spaces in Venezuela or Columbia.
Thank you for the clear information. I myself have fallen victim to fear mongering in the past, and it’s such a relief to have a channel tell it straight. Thank you for putting myself and many others at ease.
Thanks a lot for distributing clear and concise information!
NGL, 'don't panic' is still slightly panic-inducing
"Don't panic! Don't panic! Don't panic!"
Personal suffering ends, life prevails, is what it is 🤷♂️
the 2024 YR4 situation is crazy
PenguinZ0 title
I love your ‘suffer no fools’ attitude
when will you release the kids that send you space engine renders from your basement?
On discord I see he’s on space engine for hours so he does it
@@masonzastronomyoffical NO, it's obviously the children in his basement
@@thetroll1900 no
@@masonzastronomyoffical yes
@@thetroll1900 maybe
if an asteroid is gonna hit earth, im gonna have to step in...
🥶
And what are you going to do about that?
@@thonguyenduong2014 im gonna say “asteroid dni” and it wont be able to hit
@@thonguyenduong2014they would intevene, and stop the situation from getting out of hand.
@@thonguyenduong2014 He's going to marry it, he told me in my discord dms.
i wish it hits earth ngl, weve been needing some rare earth minerals for a while and a legendary supply drop is exactly what we need
The minerals would be obliterated on impact
@@CassowaryGod100 nah, I'd be there
Really shines a light that the ones most at risk of getting nuked from space are also amongst the poorest and least capable of doing anything about it. No time like the present to start making changes in our lives..
A devastating asteroid hitting Earth should be considered an obligation for humanity as a whole, not just the nations it affects. That might be wishful thinking, but it just makes logical sense. Even if you're a full blown misanthropist and don't care about people's lives, it could have a devastating ecological impact.
Nice report. Glad I happen to be subscribed.
So level 10 would be "GRAN TORINO"?? (So we get Clint Eastwood to tell the asteroid to get the hell of his lawn😂)
I'd love to see you make updates on this topic, this is definitely an interesting and kinda scary topic
If an asteroid ever hit earth I would call my friend Kevin (He can beat Herobrine blindfolded)
I have a friend named Kevin too!
thank you for updating us ky ily
The important thing is that the size of the asteroid will determine how worm we should be and If it can, miss Earth.
2024 YR4 Situation is Crazy
1.6% is a pretty high probability for such a drastic event.
Its much more rare for your house to burn down or to die at forty but we generally insure those events
This is a very educational and informational video
Bro unlocked all universe secrets, free pass💀
I like that it sounds like “2024 wire four.”
Even if there was an asteroid that could cause a severe impact we would probably know far enough in advance that we could prevent it entirely
Thanks for that. I'll sleep well tonight.
Adding comment to buff the video recommendations stuff :3
I've hit 3% dice rolls before. Definitely not impossible.
Yeah exactly, it happens on average once every 33 times
yeah, he literally said 1%, that's definitely possible
50 meters? Pfff
that is 30 meters larger than the chelyabinsk meteor
@@starcasmlove chelyabinsk was only 20?!
@ ..yes
@@starcasmlove oh
Thats what she said (Earth)
The Tarantino scale?🤔
Do hope it hits the exact part of the world where i live!!
Lets hope it hits and makes people more worried about asteroids.
i cast "make this channel very popular" spell.
We're all going to die! Doom day is near! Try chocolate expresso today, tomorrow is not promised.
50 metres? I'm not really understanding, that sounds like it doesn't have potential to make it through the atmosphere and actually impact with much large debris.
Worst case scenario it wipes out a city. Even an atmospheroc detonation would be much worse than what happened in Siberia recently.
Even if it threatens earth(it won’t) NASA will just DART it away
True that's why people shouldn't even be worried about asteroids anymore
Rocks really just fly around in the sky
situation situation is situation
And please really really really don’t panic.
Sadly not a threat...
Over 8 mega tons is pretty impressive, comparable to castle bravo
No threat to the planet earth 🌏 will be anytime soon.
Humanity is doomed. Got it.
nope
@@Kyplanet893 I was just kidding. Fingers crossed we get the most likely outcome and it misses.
@@Kyplanet893Ai Channels: “Nu Uh, My source Is me”
Please don’t panic.
Hey Kyplanet, I love your videos! You are appreciated and you matter
Asteroid will miss the earth 🌏
Interesting
nothing ever happens
We don’t need nuclear bombs or mega tons of TNT dynamite no.
I JUST saw a clickbate article on it, and I got this notification…
putting the "real" in "strangereal"
We’re safe from 🌏
So to summarize the video: we're doomed 💀💀💀
It'll probably knock out an unlucky hippo in Africa.
NASA can study the asteroids to save the planet 🌏
Penguinz0 title
He's a pedo
NASA will keep the planet earth will be safe 🌏
2024 yr4 is moving away from the ☀️
NASA can rule out planet earth 🌏
Why not just push planet Earth and put it somewhere else?
NASA can track asteroids ☄️ & pass close to Earth 🌏
Bro im in Feb 1
99% will miss the Earth.🌏
We'll be fine. Probably...
We'll be fine.
Just like 2025, it'll be fine, probably
Hopefully
NASA will save the 🌏
the dinosaurs didnt worry and look what happened to them. We need to take action NOW
How can observers know the exact line of possible impact sites but not whether or not it will impact anywhere on that line with 100% certainty?
because we don’t know it’s exact orbit
we know it’s true orbit exists on a line, and part of that line crosses earth (which is why the impact sites are in a line)
we just don’t know what point on the line it is
Why would people be worried about an asteroid that could impact Earth? It's like almost definitely it would just explode in the sky somewhere, or even if it did cause the apocalypse, who wouldn't want to rather live in an apocalypse?
No way absolutely not 👎
Sure hope it doesn’t hit India
USA United States of America is safe.
When you told us not to be worried, you should have just said it would hit the equator. I'm guessing very little of your crowd is coming from the suspected landing sites
i think “it’s probably going to miss” is less worrying than “it’s gonna hit but you won’t be there”
one of the red points shown in the graph would literally be over my house lmfao
is it over chat
can we send a space shuttle to this asteroid and make the movie Armageddon IRL?
good idea we should spend 30 billion dollars to desecrate and modify a 50 year old retired museum piece designed to take people to low earth orbit for a couple weeks send a several year crewed mission to this little space rock instead of shooting it with a cheap barebones satellite bus a hundredth the price
@@theKam0087 probably a thousandth the price.
but also it would be cool
but also it could be a remake of the movie but irl
but also the profit from the movie would make a big very many $ so it would be a net profit in the end
@@theKam0087You are forgetting the cool factor. Which is priceless and crucial to the mission.
You know when a giant space rock is going to hit Earth in the future? When NOBODY is talking about it until we see it in the sky. By that time all the world's billionaires are already safe in their underground bunkers.
Nope
@@absurdsona8931 Yep
Oh, so you weren't invited to the Vault programme, too bad.
@@dingickso4098 Enjoy being a guinea pig.
Most detection is done by amateur astronomers. The information would be out there immediately
All asteroids have a probability that they can hit Earth we just a bunch of lucky people
no, only the asteroids that have orbits that intersect with earth have a chance of hitting earth
some random rock in the asteroid belt isn’t going to spontaneously shoot towards us
Loving the clickbait
Did you even watch the video?
Don't see how anyone reasonable could conclude clickbait. The title says what the video is, he didn't bury the lead and he didn't exaggerate or fearmonger.
@@botbadger dont bother with the trolls
Lmao KyPlanet actively fights against trash tier click bait science media
- Video is called ‘The 2024 YR4 Situation’
- Video talks about and explains The 2024 YR4 Situation
- somebody still calls it clickbait
the 2024 YR4 situation is crazy