@@malanalan1 That’s correct. Layoffs are still low. But layoffs are a lagging indicator. Falling job openings, which is what occurring now, is a leading indicator of a weak job market.
Owned many homes and will not buy another one for the rest of my life in this broken housing market. Rent and then inherit my family home. I know I am lucky to have this option.
Yep, I listed my home in mid July, about 10 people came by, and only 1 serious buyer ended up putting down the earnest money. But even this buyer was aggressively asking for concessions after concessions, and I had to deny after the second one. Early 2024, my two neighbors sold their homes with 10 competing bids each because literally 15 teams showed up after 2 days of listing. The market has shifted. Now, pertaining to your video, I actually was going to turn my home into rental, because my rate is at 2.75% for 30 years.
Do you know if your 2.75% rate is on an assumable loan? If it is, you should advertise that and you will almost certainly get a great offer. If not, you should seriously consider renting it out … assuming it will cash flow like most properties with that rate would.
@@shanerogers9386not really. People are all learning a rough lesson that anyone that sells on eBay know all too well - things are only worth what someone is willing to pay and just because someone paid X a year ago doesn’t mean they will pay that much today. The bubble prices aren’t the issue IMO, it’s people that still think they can get those prices even though the market has changed. As they sit with their homes unsold and more and more homes come into the market, people will get tired of waiting and will realize they need to reduce, if they want to sell. Just takes time.
I hear from sellers they’re waiting it out and I hear from buyers they’re waiting it out. Sellers acting greedy and buyers are fed up with these prices.
The sellers aren't greedy. The sellers are also buyers, as they need to purchase a home to live in once they sell their home. Get it? So, those sellers have to pay the same prices as all other buyers and also compete in the market for a home purchase.
@user-fp4dr1ne7z What is "sellers greed"? People have a right to ask whatever they want for their assets. And the market will bear it's true value. Just because you can't afford something someone is selling doesn't make them "greedy".
Orange County, CA here. Very split market. The >$2M market is absolutely dead stop-it’s more than a third of inventory despite being a small proportion of sales. The
When the stock market crashes, the real estate market will follow.......not before! Asset prices are relative. Builders will avoid overbuilding. It's the road to bankruptcy.
By asset prices are “relative”, do you mean correlated? I agree that over long periods of time they are but the last two years there has been a large and growing divergence between residential RE and stocks. And I think a significant correction in stock market will cause money to be reallocated to real estate and hold it up and reduce this divergence.
@@poonekar Why would money be diverted into real estate in case of a stock market crash? Stocks are going up because liquidity is being pumped into the financial sector. But liquidity is being drained from the RE market. A stock market crash would signal the end of its cycle. But The current RE cycle is yet to be played out.
@@williamjohnson9815 not when too many people have a locked in low rate and have no incentive to sell, they can sell for asking price, or just rent unless insurance and taxes push owners out of affordability then i can see a crash
There has never been more housing units per capita. And if home building stops, it would be because the economy is deteriorating, and demand is falling. This would lead to higher unemployment and increasing inventory. Not conducive to prices heading "off to the races".
It's going to be a long time before this housing market finds a bottom and then recovers back to these asking prices. I can tell you one thing I don't see on zillow these days and that's asking prices being revised upwards. I do however see almost every listing with downward revisions. That should clue you into the direction the market is headed. It won't be long before the foreclosures really begin to affect the appraisal values of their surrounding properties. At that point sellers can ask all they want for their properties but banks aren't going to write loans when they're offloading properies in those same areas through their own distressed home sales at half the price. We have seen this all before. It should be obvious to everyone who lived through the GFC. This time it is different because this bubble is 100x more inflated than last time.
@sound4mation Funny. According to every single housing price aggregator we are up 5-6% year over year and at ever increasing all time highs. Cope. Cope hard.
My parents are paying $2k a month in property taxes. My wife and i will get $5k a month in Social Security at full retirement age. What’s wrong with this picture? So 40% of my SS will go back to the government??? Don’t think so. I could afford it but it’s a matter of principle. I am the last year of the boomers. More interested in travel than owning a big expensive home. I think you’re going to see a bunch of selling. Government has made things unaffordable.
Been watching UA-cam videos on housing for a year now, hoping for some valuable insight (Jason is one of the only real deals). However, according to everyone else, we should have already seen a housing bubble crash, massive layoffs, deep recession (which we may or may not be in now??) OR big price increases to come w/never-ending bid wars, and 5% interest rates… ughhh... my head hurts. The only truths so far are that it really depends on location, the future is unpredictable & unaffordable for the average hard-working American. And, if you cannot afford to buy right now or attempt to time the market and rent (which is cheaper) you will be shamed and ridiculed by RE salespeople/investors who stand to lose money by you doing so.
I’ve been a RE investor for 20 years and I’ll share my unfiltered perspective. First off, I gain on cash flow when renters don’t buy homes and I gain in equity when they do buy. It’s a win-win owning rental properties. Secondly, as Peter Lynch said, far more money is lost anticipating a recession than what’s lost in the recession itself. In all my years I could never time the real estate market and will never attempt to. Lastly, don’t take financial advice from people who are selling you something or are unsuccessful at investing. The problem is that people who are successful and have nothing to sell, rarely speak up.
It's like the scene on Starwars where Luke, Hansolo, and the princesses are in the garbage compactor. The market is getting destroyed/suspended for now until more favorable normal market conditions come back to normal. Bad enough that interest rates are way too high! Then add the super screwy fraud of price gouging for home owners insurance + the (fair plain), and California property taxes, and it's speeding the process even faster!
History doesn’t repeat itself, but does often rhyme. House values will crash on a real value basis, but nominally will look like they stagnate as inflation gets higher than the fed can control. Wage gains will begin to outpace house gains. It will be a very slow grind though
Thank you for commenting! I tend to include YOY more in this specific video for easier comparisons week to week. MTM changes don’t account for seasonal effects.
@ i guess a more granular analysis gives some better context in addition to seasonality. I’d a bit hard to see how inventory changes are increasing or decreasing without the MOM changes and maybe even compare those YOY
Inventory up 23% YoY. There are deals out there!!! I’m sure it only gets better for a while! This is just seasonal, mixed with a tapped consumer!!! The holidays will be interesting.
What is your forecast going into 2025? I see homes setting for a long, long time, not selling even though there are many small price cuts! I see homes priced right, in a choice location that sell right away.
In my area pendings just spiked. I'm guessing people were waiting out the election. Who knows if this is pent up demand is just a blip or a more substantial ground swell.
@@iishyxvietxboyii1 Well, true. However you have to take into account the price to build (base-line) - inflation- and the average income for buyers in your area= priced within the target of making a home sell for both buyers and sellers I guess.
How will rates come down when the idiot Fed is feeding the cancer of inflation?? 30yr fixed now at 7.00%. Even through the moron Powell is slashing short rates. The treasury market is always right. JPOW is always wrong. It's all about rates and inflation.
People are getting rich from stocks and bitcoin. It’s season where people travel, hangout with family, they aren’t focused on a house. Beginning of the year to summer I’m thinking it’ll pump back
I cannot believe there are still people who believe housing price will crash, as we now have a president who is also a real estate investor/developer. Buy one before it flies away.
It's pretty hard to be too concerned what people stuck renting year after year think about the housing market. Their uninformed "opinions" only run in one direction amd are based entirely on sour grapes and hopium. It's one thing to be frustrated with how expensive everything (not just housing) has become and another to CONTANTLY be saying the same thing over and over and over, rooting for a non existent, never going to happen "crash" just so they can somehow crawl into homeownership in the backs of the economic destruction of the vast majority of people in this country. Not. Gonna. Happen.
Partially true but I believe unaffordability of these home prices will make the houses hit a ceiling. Unless you think home prices can keep going up and magically the average american is also getting their incomes boosted by 20-30%. Anyone that bought before the pre covid times I believe may be over leveraged on their homes and data has shown american household debt is at it's record high. Eventually, buyers just can't buy because they can't afford the constant peaking home prices which will force it do go downwards. Not a crash but i will start coming down a little bit.
Sellers retreat because there are no buyers.
Taking longer to sell a house, which supports your statement.
Soon, most sellers will have no choice.
Layoffs nationwide are getting vicious, Do the research.
@@robertjones2282 Layoffs? what planet do you live on, Melmac?
@@malanalan1This is the kind of misinformation cope renters like to spew to make themselves feel better.
@@malanalan1 That’s correct. Layoffs are still low. But layoffs are a lagging indicator. Falling job openings, which is what occurring now, is a leading indicator of a weak job market.
Owned many homes and will not buy another one for the rest of my life in this broken housing market. Rent and then inherit my family home. I know I am lucky to have this option.
Must be nice.
I’m a new subscriber, I enjoy your calm methodical explanations thank you
Yep, I listed my home in mid July, about 10 people came by, and only 1 serious buyer ended up putting down the earnest money. But even this buyer was aggressively asking for concessions after concessions, and I had to deny after the second one. Early 2024, my two neighbors sold their homes with 10 competing bids each because literally 15 teams showed up after 2 days of listing. The market has shifted.
Now, pertaining to your video, I actually was going to turn my home into rental, because my rate is at 2.75% for 30 years.
Good luck. I predict the gov starts a new tax on sfh rentals to kill prices. You can only set rents so high
@@Kronk-rp3jfthe trump admin will do that? 😂😂😂 you know trump has a lot of real estate
Do you know if your 2.75% rate is on an assumable loan? If it is, you should advertise that and you will almost certainly get a great offer. If not, you should seriously consider renting it out … assuming it will cash flow like most properties with that rate would.
Price reduction was never an option apparently?
Yes, try to rent and see how they goes.
Sounds like you aren’t a serious seller. Nvmd the serious buyers out there😅
cost of money is killing the market . Gonna be a rough year
The bubble prices are the real issue.
@@shanerogers9386not really. People are all learning a rough lesson that anyone that sells on eBay know all too well - things are only worth what someone is willing to pay and just because someone paid X a year ago doesn’t mean they will pay that much today. The bubble prices aren’t the issue IMO, it’s people that still think they can get those prices even though the market has changed. As they sit with their homes unsold and more and more homes come into the market, people will get tired of waiting and will realize they need to reduce, if they want to sell. Just takes time.
Liked your regular updates each month.
I hear from sellers they’re waiting it out and I hear from buyers they’re waiting it out. Sellers acting greedy and buyers are fed up with these prices.
The sellers aren't greedy. The sellers are also buyers, as they need to purchase a home to live in once they sell their home.
Get it?
So, those sellers have to pay the same prices as all other buyers and also compete in the market for a home purchase.
Investor sucks
No one buy no one sell
See how long can this last
@@dvader3263 you’re telling me seller’s greed didn’t contribute to this market? Wake up
@user-fp4dr1ne7z What is "sellers greed"? People have a right to ask whatever they want for their assets. And the market will bear it's true value. Just because you can't afford something someone is selling doesn't make them "greedy".
@@dvader3263Sellers are greedy, just as the realtors that convince them to list too high.
Orange County, CA here. Very split market. The >$2M market is absolutely dead stop-it’s more than a third of inventory despite being a small proportion of sales. The
A starter home is $1M! 😂
You could get 1200 sf in a lesser school district for $900k
congratulations on 101K subs! 🥳🎉
Thank you so much 😀
When the stock market crashes, the real estate market will follow.......not before! Asset prices are relative. Builders will avoid overbuilding. It's the road to bankruptcy.
By asset prices are “relative”, do you mean correlated? I agree that over long periods of time they are but the last two years there has been a large and growing divergence between residential RE and stocks. And I think a significant correction in stock market will cause money to be reallocated to real estate and hold it up and reduce this divergence.
@@poonekar Why would money be diverted into real estate in case of a stock market crash? Stocks are going up because liquidity is being pumped into the financial sector. But liquidity is being drained from the RE market. A stock market crash would signal the end of its cycle. But The current RE cycle is yet to be played out.
@@williamjohnson9815 not when too many people have a locked in low rate and have no incentive to sell, they can sell for asking price, or just rent unless insurance and taxes push owners out of affordability then i can see a crash
There has never been more housing units per capita. And if home building stops, it would be because the economy is deteriorating, and demand is falling. This would lead to higher unemployment and increasing inventory. Not conducive to prices heading "off to the races".
Thanks Jason!
Texas heading down hard.. tons of days on market
Yesterday there were add 30+ houses lists coming in a city I am watching.
It's going to be a long time before this housing market finds a bottom and then recovers back to these asking prices. I can tell you one thing I don't see on zillow these days and that's asking prices being revised upwards. I do however see almost every listing with downward revisions. That should clue you into the direction the market is headed. It won't be long before the foreclosures really begin to affect the appraisal values of their surrounding properties. At that point sellers can ask all they want for their properties but banks aren't going to write loans when they're offloading properies in those same areas through their own distressed home sales at half the price. We have seen this all before. It should be obvious to everyone who lived through the GFC. This time it is different because this bubble is 100x more inflated than last time.
Going to have to find the top of the market first , cupcake.
@ you’re going to have to look in the rear view mirror at this point
@sound4mation Funny. According to every single housing price aggregator we are up 5-6% year over year and at ever increasing all time highs.
Cope. Cope hard.
@ only time will tell.
The cycle is prolonged this time because of historical government and Fed interference. Rates -> Sales -> Jobs -> Prices
My parents are paying $2k a month in property taxes. My wife and i will get $5k a month in Social Security at full retirement age. What’s wrong with this picture? So 40% of my SS will go back to the government??? Don’t think so. I could afford it but it’s a matter of principle. I am the last year of the boomers. More interested in travel than owning a big expensive home. I think you’re going to see a bunch of selling. Government has made things unaffordable.
Why is govt to blame. Odd conclusion.
Property taxes are one thing. In FL you can get homestead, Texas too I think. This is so helpful.
so commission isnt part of the closing cost?
Would enjoy seeing how new home builds effects the numbers.
Out in Folsom and El Dorado Hills, new home construction sales seem to be slowing.
Been watching UA-cam videos on housing for a year now, hoping for some valuable insight (Jason is one of the only real deals). However, according to everyone else, we should have already seen a housing bubble crash, massive layoffs, deep recession (which we may or may not be in now??) OR big price increases to come w/never-ending bid wars, and 5% interest rates… ughhh... my head hurts. The only truths so far are that it really depends on location, the future is unpredictable & unaffordable for the average hard-working American. And, if you cannot afford to buy right now or attempt to time the market and rent (which is cheaper) you will be shamed and ridiculed by RE salespeople/investors who stand to lose money by you doing so.
I’ve been a RE investor for 20 years and I’ll share my unfiltered perspective. First off, I gain on cash flow when renters don’t buy homes and I gain in equity when they do buy. It’s a win-win owning rental properties. Secondly, as Peter Lynch said, far more money is lost anticipating a recession than what’s lost in the recession itself. In all my years I could never time the real estate market and will never attempt to. Lastly, don’t take financial advice from people who are selling you something or are unsuccessful at investing. The problem is that people who are successful and have nothing to sell, rarely speak up.
I want to know if it’s prudent to cancel our investment rentals insurance
It's like the scene on Starwars where Luke, Hansolo, and the princesses are in the garbage compactor. The market is getting destroyed/suspended for now until more favorable normal market conditions come back to normal. Bad enough that interest rates are way too high! Then add the super screwy fraud of price gouging for home owners insurance + the (fair plain), and California property taxes, and it's speeding the process even faster!
Happy Saturday Jason! #Bymydumbmath😂
#Realestateislocal😊#Spreadsheetking🤴
#Butwaittheresmore😆
Haha! That pretty much summarizes it 😂 Happy Saturday, Steve!
Hope you had a great weekend :)
History doesn’t repeat itself, but does often rhyme. House values will crash on a real value basis, but nominally will look like they stagnate as inflation gets higher than the fed can control. Wage gains will begin to outpace house gains. It will be a very slow grind though
What exactly do you believe you're saying here ?
We're gonna be in this situation for the rest of our lives.
QUESTION : end of year new construction standing inventory, what discount is realistic savings?? Thanks
It would be great if you included month over month inventory gains not just YTD or YOY
Thank you for commenting! I tend to include YOY more in this specific video for easier comparisons week to week. MTM changes don’t account for seasonal effects.
@ i guess a more granular analysis gives some better context in addition to seasonality. I’d a bit hard to see how inventory changes are increasing or decreasing without the MOM changes and maybe even compare those YOY
Lets get nerdy!
Yes!
Sellers retreat typically this time of year as the holidays roll in
Yes but the stats I shared are year over year changes
Inventory up 23% YoY. There are deals out there!!! I’m sure it only gets better for a while! This is just seasonal, mixed with a tapped consumer!!! The holidays will be interesting.
What is your forecast going into 2025? I see homes setting for a long, long time, not selling even though there are many small price cuts! I see homes priced right, in a choice location that sell right away.
In my area pendings just spiked. I'm guessing people were waiting out the election. Who knows if this is pent up demand is just a blip or a more substantial ground swell.
Priced right? Everything is overpriced RN.
@@iishyxvietxboyii1 Well, true. However you have to take into account the price to build (base-line) - inflation- and the average income for buyers in your area= priced within the target of making a home sell for both buyers and sellers I guess.
@@christianmaupin6551 Housing prices has gone way over average income now and rates are at near 7.
Where are you looking? Some markets are hot, others are not. Real estate is local.
For the algorithm👍
Thank you as always!!
Much appreciated, Steve!
Seasonality . Come March , demand will increase , bidding wars to begin with mortgage rates to come down .
How will rates come down when the idiot Fed is feeding the cancer of inflation?? 30yr fixed now at 7.00%. Even through the moron Powell is slashing short rates. The treasury market is always right. JPOW is always wrong. It's all about rates and inflation.
People are getting rich from stocks and bitcoin. It’s season where people travel, hangout with family, they aren’t focused on a house. Beginning of the year to summer I’m thinking it’ll pump back
Rates come down? The bond vigilantes would like to have a word with you
WHERE?
Chicago suburbs average DOM is 2 days… 2 matchboxes put together selling same day
More invested owned homes sitting empty than at a point in history.
Cut the number in half at its still the most in history.
Currently selling my house. I appreciate the seller retreat at the moment. Increased showings
Keep us posted! Where abouts?
Haha
Massive massive layoffs in the pipeline by mid-December...
Lol yal really think these houses are worth anything lol lol Build or pay to build a real home. Its just like education and healthcare. So sad.
Bros correct but needs a basic economics book to understand why he is actually correct
I cannot believe there are still people who believe housing price will crash, as we now have a president who is also a real estate investor/developer. Buy one before it flies away.
It's pretty hard to be too concerned what people stuck renting year after year think about the housing market. Their uninformed "opinions" only run in one direction amd are based entirely on sour grapes and hopium. It's one thing to be frustrated with how expensive everything (not just housing) has become and another to CONTANTLY be saying the same thing over and over and over, rooting for a non existent, never going to happen "crash" just so they can somehow crawl into homeownership in the backs of the economic destruction of the vast majority of people in this country.
Not. Gonna. Happen.
Partially true but I believe unaffordability of these home prices will make the houses hit a ceiling. Unless you think home prices can keep going up and magically the average american is also getting their incomes boosted by 20-30%. Anyone that bought before the pre covid times I believe may be over leveraged on their homes and data has shown american household debt is at it's record high. Eventually, buyers just can't buy because they can't afford the constant peaking home prices which will force it do go downwards. Not a crash but i will start coming down a little bit.
Sellers can't afford to buy lol. What a conundrum :p
#1 😊
Have a great weekend!
🤙🏽🤙🏽🌴🌴
They should retreat. House gonna keep going up, nothing to lose
Other than constantly rising rent payments ?