You're Evaluating WRs in Dynasty ALL WRONG! (This Changes Everything)
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- Опубліковано 18 чер 2024
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Time Stamps:
Intro (0:00)
What is 1st Downs Per Route Run? (1:15)
Big Play Merchants and Applying this to the 2023 Season (9:50)
Using 1st Downs Per Route Run to Identify Dynasty Buys/Sells (20:30)
Sell Jayden Reed & GB WR Thoughts (21:50)
Sell Jordan Addison (27:25)
Sell Marvin Mims (32:20)
Applying 1st Downs Per Route Run to the 2024 WR Class (36:30)
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Could just be me, but the link to the article isn't working.
Been using FD per Target, forever. This year I got pff college stats. I focus on the two stats 1.Targets per RR and 2.FD per Target. If multiplied, it's FD per RR. Guys like PUKA pops. Per your comment, do they earn Target, did they do something with Target. I also adjusted PFF data for length of targets ranges, behind line, short, intermediate, deep, left, right, center.
To follow up, by breaking FD/RR = TAR/RR x FD/TAR, adjusted and normalize for length of Target, offers more insights. Some guys are Target monsters, but only average in getting FD per Target. Xavier Worthy got +24% on targets actual vs predicted, but -1% FD per Target. Meaning he was very average. AD Mitchel was - 8% in drawing targets, but +24% in FD per targets. Translation.... Worthy was the benefactor of designed looks, but didn't produce, Mitchel converted his targets into FD at higher relative rate. Target per route do depends on the competition for targets, both Brian Thomas and AD Mitchel had competition for them.
Puka was + 39% targets per route run, and +24% First Downs per Target in his college career. Mingo was -13%/-4%. Dell +34%/+23%. These stats are predictive, but still rank behind draft capital and film grades. I think they point to guys to watch out for, and potential late round gems.
Man, great stuff .. I'm usually good with wrs but got sucked into Mingo..
Got puka though.
Id love to see your list from this year!
🎉🎉🎉🎉🎉🎉@@robdowns9339
@robdowns9339 spill the beans bro lol who are ur top 10 wrs and Sleepers
As a Packers fan who went to Michigan State, this video was made for me haha. I love Reed but I don’t see him being our #1 like a lot of people do. I have Wicks in all my leagues and I think he’s legit. He just wins. I hope they scheme him up more
Same deal, Packers fan but from Wisconsin.
Just stopped by Lambeau recently, had to have them print a Wicks jersey for me. He's gonna be really really good.
Great analysis, and great guest. Very interesting stuff. I'd be curious what this looks like broken down more but I'm sure that's a nightmare to do. For instance, Pickens is getting a QB upgrade and losing a target hog in Diontae. Would that counteract this big play merchant label? Does being a rookie help at all on this list? As you guys talk about, they usually improve in year two. Leaves the potential to grow as a player and develop more than just a vertical threat. It would be interesting to see who the 4 that improved as big play merchants and if there was a certain archetype that bucked the trend. Great stuff though!
Great stuff bro! Really interesting topic and Ryan was a great guest 🤙
Great show Ron!
Great video, keep up the fantasy grind.
fantastic work Ryan
Got D. Wicks and the 3.03 for the 2.07 and 4.08. Thoughts?
Did Puka not fit on that yprr vs fdprr chart or am I just missing him?
Looks like Ceedee’s production is literally ‘off the charts’ 😂
From a Rookie/Prospect standpoint, is 1D/RR a stronger measurement of offensive buy-in vs. individual capability? If so, would you say that YPRR is a stickier stat than 1D/RR when predicting Rookie breakouts?
But why is 3rd and Renfrow still looking for a job?
Because he has to get schemed open and that wont consistently get called if youre not the best receiver
Great vid
I'm not sure how I feel about this. Definitely an interesting topic for discussion. When you look at Puka's numbers from college, he falls roughly the same distance under the line as George Pickens, which would classify Puka as a big play merchant.
If you like first downs, take a serious look at Dontayvion Wicks on the Packers. He just missed the routes run cut for the chart used in most of the video, but he's been great at moving the chains.
People remember the big Watson plays and Doubs playoff run... but if you saw the last half of the Packers season, you know Wicks can do things that those guys haven't shown.
Deebo is my favorite WR to watch that’s why I draft him over Dell and Waddle on underdog. But FD per target is important too
Let’s go!
Nico was pretty bad his first two years and balled out in the third. He’s a decent example to go along with D Adams. Nico’s stats were very close to Mims’ their rookie years.
Someone tell me where the BTJ section is.
With the rest of the fades
@@groosh7913😂😂😂😂
@@groosh7913 lol high of the fades doe
Omron!
😂
1st
I understand the point entirely but trying to compare Addison and reed doesn’t make a ton of sense one of them was a 1st round pick
From a Rookie/Prospect standpoint, is 1D/RR a stronger measurement of offensive buy-in vs. individual capability? If so, would you say that YPRR is a stickier stat than 1D/RR when predicting Rookie breakouts?