Definitely the most respectful, knowledgeable and detailed analysis of this tragedy is on this channel. Thank you for your professionalism and honesty.
You have done an excellent job with your research and diplomacy in delivery of knowledge as it has come to you. This A very respectfully written and produced vlog and I hope your followers can respond understand all that you are doing for us in the industry. Well done, and bravo
Just curious, would it be possible and beneficial to bring the yacht up to the surface for investigative purposes as to exactly what the cause of the yacht sinking so fast?
This is an excellent and informative video. I was chief engineer on 2 sisterships to Bayesian and have been on over 20 yachts in 27 years in the industry. The crew would have been up and dealing with the situation as it unfolded. They had every right to believe the boat would have handled the storm, its not uncommon to encounter one. What wasn't expected was to be suddenly knocked down. It must have been extremely ferocious for that to happen. At that point there was no chance for them to gather the guests up onto deck, the boat was on its side. How it sank so fast is up for speculation but I'm sure it will be confirmed in the investigation. Remember, this happened in a matter of minutes. In all our safety drills it is always the sole responsibility of one crew member to only assist the guests. It must have taken on water very quickly so how could that have happened? There are some hatches and access doors around these yachts and subject to much speculation. There is a big hull door in the lazzerette that is used to load guests on and off the tender. (The shell door) This is normally shut at night once the guests are done using the tender for the day. Then the tender is lifted onto the boat and stowed in one of two big deck lockers on the foredeck. These are watertight. As Bayesian only arrived at that anchorage that evening the most likely didn't use the tender or the shell door and it should be shut and dogged. There is also a swim platform on the transom and this is accessed by steps from the aft deck. The ones I've seen are water tight ie: no access into the yacht from here. Again, these are never left down at night and they had no reason to open it after only arriving in the anchorage at night. There is another large hatch leading from the main deck to the lazzerette that forms the steps to the aft deck from the sunken cockpit. This is the access to the hull door, engine room, lazzerette, steering and engineers cabin. This is hydraulically operated and normally closed at sea, at the end of the night and in bad weather /heavy rain. There is another access way into the engine room - the emergency access. This access is used when the lazzerette hatch is inaccessible. When the engineer got up as the storm hit he may have opened the lazz hatch and as things were happening quickly he and the crew may have has to access the area multiple times, starting the main engines, extra generators, gathering equipment etc. The emergency entrance is more difficult and slow to enter, having to open up a water tight door and climb down a ladder into the engine room. Again, the crew would not have expected to be knocked down that night so opening the lazz hatch was a reasonable action. Regardless, flooding of the lazzerette and engine room shouldn't have sunk the boat. There are two doors leading from the wheelhouse that is forward of the salon. These are used by the crew to access the main deck and are electrically operated on pentagram hinges. They are normally closed and dogged at sea. At anchor they were likely used by the night watch keeper to access the main deck as part of his rounds. It's possible this was not dogged and opened. There is also a crew access hatch on the foredeck. This leads down to the crew area. Its normally dogged at night, especially with a storm approaching but possibly not. There are crew up coming in and out of that hatch at all hours with guests on. The main salon has two large sliding doors set into heavy stainless frames approximately 2x2 metres each. Similar to what you may find entering big buildings. These operate either automatically as you approach them or by push button. They can be locked shut or open. I've been aboard these yachts under sail a few times and have had instances where as the boat healed over under sail one would open from the sheer weight overcoming the mechanism that operates it. We would have to lock the doors either open or closed and was a problem for the guests wanting to come and go. Normally this is left unlocked so guests can move freely. As they got knocked down it's entirely possible that one of these doors slid open (the other would be hard up onto the stops) and a large volume of water would enter the salon, down the stairs to the guest cabins and eventually into the guest cabins themselves. Literally tons of water in seconds. I have a feeling this was a critical issue. The crew and guests muster on the aft deck in emergencies. They may have opened the sliding doors themselves as part of their preparations. After all, they weren't expecting to be on their side in the next few moments. This will be confirmed in the investigation. These yachts have a fly bridge where all the operations are controlled from. The main wheel house below has limited visibility but has full controls if needed. There is a large companion way leading to it. This is normally closed at night but could have blown out as water rushed in and the displaced air escaped. It also may have flooded into here once on it's side. The swinging keel is normally only used under sail, that's what its there for. We sometimes dropped it at anchor to counteract any rolling motion and the crew were right to beleive it's not needed in a storm. I've been underway and anchored in some terrible weather and the keel was retracted. Would it have helped right Bayesian when it got knocked down? Yes. But had the crew known it was going to get bad enough for that to happen they would have dropped it or just avoided the area in the first place. The med has some of the worst and unpredictable weather anywhere. I was on a similar yacht anchored of Cannes when a mistral hit within 20 minutes of the wind picking up at 6am. It was over 60 knts and we broke off our anchor in the process. Keel was up and we weren't being hauled over. It would be very interesting if he authorities can confirm which (if any) hatches and doors are open as it sits on the floor. It is reported to be resting on its starboard side. The CEO of the Italian sea group has come out to say (amongst other accusations) that the divers confirmed that the shell door was open. He then contradicts himself by saying “be careful, if it turns out it is shut the force of the water as it sank could have shut it”.... As i said, flooding the lazzerette and engine room would not have sunk the boat. I believe that they want to salvage the yacht asap as theres possibly 40 tonnes of diesel and oil onboard. Like most tragedies it was likely a combination of factors that led to the sinking. Every crew member i worked with was committed to the safe operation of their yachts, well trained and dedicated. These aren't some 3rd world trawlers or cargo ships, they are beautiful and well maintained luxury yachts with good budgets and regulation. For them to have lost people and the boat (their "home") would be devastating to them and I'd like to offer my condolences to everyone involved. Of course the captain knew about the weather. It's often the main topic at the dinner table and watchkeepers are given directions accordingly and were also backed up with written directions if needed. I think the captain would have been up or at least have given orders to be woken as soon as the wind picked up. A lot of crew are sensitive to the boats movement and will get up if it starts moving around due to the weather myself included. Probably why all the crew were saved (apart from the chef unfortunately). They just weren't expecting to be hit with such force it knocked it down possibly to a point further than where it was able to right itself. I hope we can find out exactly what happened and can learn from it but in this case I am convinced it was a freak event that no one could have possibly thought possible.
Wow , great thorough overview. It does seem like a very quick freak accident. But what's more worrying if the yacht got knocked flat , there was no hope of it ever righting itself. How were any passengers ever expected to make it out. It was effectively a death trap waiting to kill people.
Excellent post. All of us who work or have worked in the industry are familiar with the operation of large yachts, the training required and the professionalism of the crews. This seems to have been a case of tragic circumstances..I doubt anyone was negligent or is to blame. The crew did a wonderful job to get all those they could off, into a life raft, and to send flares up….Captain retired with 24 years experience of large yachts.
Your description of these power-operated doors & hatches...even to a crew member's cabin!...leaves me still less impressed with this design. It can neither be operated nor even accessed, in places, without power! It's a poor sailboat that can't be operated without power to everything. "Too big for this rig" is just one of it's design flaws.
Just another mention for the divers that recovered the bodies - diving at 50m on a recently sunken yacht with rope/cushions deckhead linings, materesses floating around in the dark by torchlight with no clear surface and everything trying to entrap you whilst trying to get a heavy dead body out of a ship was a really difficult thing to do.
Very interesting. As ex yacht crew for 15 years you are correct that it is pretty standard practise to put all tenders, toys etc away after the guests have either retired for the night or said they are not going to shore, and all the doors are shut and locked. It wasn't always, when I first started the tender was kept in the water, but neither did I need STCW95 or any knowledge to work on a yacht. Some of the rubbish I have read about it was a hot night so portholes etc were probably open is so ridiculous in a fully air conditioned yacht as to be not worthy of serious address. I pointed readers of the Daily Telegraph to your video of the waterspout throwing a 60 ft Catamaran across the harbour like a frisbee and the immediate knock down of the 43 meter yacht (I didn't see the footage seconds later of her righting herself as it wasn't in the original video), given some of the ill educated comments I read there. Anyone on that 43 meter would probably have been severely injured on a 90 degree manoeuvre of such violence, anyone on the deck would have been thrown with great force who knows where and would have been lucky to survive. The yacht designer is correct, the poor guests in their cabins with the room upside down, in the dark, disoriented and not knowing what to do, had no chance at all. Escape hatches are sometimes difficult to open at the best of times. I know when we used to practise, sometimes it would take two of us to open a hatch and that's in flat calm, often in port with all the lights on so you can see what you are doing. I hope and expect the salvage to bring the yacht up exactly as she is found now, presumably by barge and flotation whilst pumping water out of her as she rises. It will indicate if anything was open. The main aft guest lounge doors on every big yacht I ever worked on could be locked in position; whether strong enough to withstand a massive ingress of water I don't know, I was chef not an engineer. I suspect that out of this, once the facts are all established, it will be mandatory for a drill for all guests after arrival, as on passenger or cruise liners and as on aircraft before take off. Since working on yachts, if flying or staying at an hotel, I always want to know where the exits or stairs are. Meanwhile for those poor people, I hope it was quick, I suspect even a few minutes would have been terrible knowing your last moments were here. RIP for those in peril on the sea.
On a boat/ship heeled at 90° you will not reach the exit, I guarantee! You would have to climb meters many meters of former beam on vertical walls while being bombard by debris. And if you ever reach the next door: How to open it without this beast knocking you down? With a heeling angle of 180^you might have a chance (if you are still alive). But all exits will be meters under water with a pressure you can't fight against.
No apology needed for the length of this video which is very informative on what could have caused this incident to occur. I must admit that even as a land lubber, I was shocked to see how tall the mast of this vessel was but as with most 'accidents', there will have been multiple things that all lined up & which contributed to this tragedy occurring.
we sailors love the sea, its more than just a job. And as such - ships are ships - we do all our job on board. And naturally we all went through tough situations. So in our mind we are with the crew, captain, guests ... good seamanship is not just experience. We work like pilots, with checklists in our heads, again and again, to keep everything safe as much as possible. Obviously, here went something wrong with the handling of such checklists. As it is reported, that this ship already had experienced in remote areas very tough weather conditions very safely. Naturally it pains to see this drama, a real tragedy, its a very ambivalence, as we know about the risks on (high) sea, and yet, by your passion and love, it pulls us out the harbours behind the horizons. We steadily have to sharpen our senses, as its the nature of a brain, to get lazy, and push us in to a comfort zone. I hardly can imagine, that we have here the reasons on the technical side. Yes, a big glass window should not exist on any ship (so my understanding), its a safety risk. Yet, an experienced crew would know about such a risk, and take relevant precautions. I suppose Human error is the main factor (as with most sea accidents nowadays).
Ex-boatbuilder here. We need more data, some of which may come once the hull is salvaged. At this point, I want to know how fast it went down, that would tell us something about where the water entered the hull. If the water entered from the deck, or somewhere on the topsides, it might fill the hull pretty quickly, but not as fast as it would if there were a large hole deep in the canoe body, perhaps near the lifting keel. Every boatbuilder fears that a design, or construction, flaw will result in a catastrophe.The complexity of a massive lifting keel with the necessity to pass through the hull, worries me, as I'm sure it did, and does, to the builder of Bayesian. I can envision a knockdown opening a hole at the point where the keel enters the hull, the air escaping through deck and superstructure openings, and the boat sinking very quickly. All speculation, unfortunately lives were lost.
While easy to envision, it is unlikely to have been the case here. Centerboard ("lifting") keels are designed to fit tightly yet glide smoothly through the keel opening. Otherwise, they would sink as soon as they are launched. A knockdown should not loosen the centerboard so much as to allow water in. This incident looks to me as if the centerboard were raised, which raises the yacht's center of gravity, making a knockdown easier in stronger winds.
Im guessing you have never built a boat with a lift / swing keel. They are rarely open to the interior, and at this size and built to code, it would never be open to the interior.
@@7divad37I'm very familiar with lifting keels, and never say never. I agree that it's an unlikely problem, but given the speed it's supposed to have sunk, I have to consider an opening below the waterline.
As an ex super yacht builder in NZ and a boat designer I totally agree with the comments from the yacht designer. This yacht had a very tall Alloy mast( not carbon) which would have only been 60%of the weight of the alloy rig. I imagine it was an ego driven decision to have a mast like this. The comments from the builder CEO is just arse covering PN boatbuilding should now be under investigation along with the designers calculations. He even has said that the yacht was unsinkable. This is a unique tragic event and I feel for the boats crew and families effected by this founding. PN boatbuilders need to be scrutinized as to why a boat with the keel retracted should sink.
my father in law Duncan McCrae was a yacht designer from England whom moved his business to Whangheri in north island NZ in the mid 1990s . Cleverest bloke i ever knew 😁👍
I don’t watch mainstream news as they are renowned for misinterpretation or just plain error. Your summaries and professional insight based on a wealth of experience combined with caution and empathy is the gold standard. Thank you. Will keep monitoring reports.
I believe that this was sabotage and their was an explosive device deep in the hull....which would have blown apart a hole and the boat would have sunk within minutes and this is why there was no time to escape. The Mike Lynch had just gotten out of a lawsuit and he possibly had some furious people whom he owed money to....Just speculation.
i agree the newsreader said yesterday that even though 5 of the missing had been located and recovered she said that they were still trying to find the last victim that had not been found and that there was still hope even though it had said on the UA-cam channel video that the last body had been located but had not yet been recovered . and i am sure that a few decades ago they showed a testing tank with yachts with tall masts on them to test their buoyancy in different weather conditions .
Hopefully the crew and other survivors will give their experience of survival in this tragedy. Imagine the woman and her 1 yr old child surviving. Great job on covering this!
The crew & captain has been grilled about this, but far as I’ve read, his main repeated statement has been, ‘we didn’t see it coming.’ A Stewardess who worked on it stated she’d been all around the world on it & it weathered several storms all over, fine. She too, is shocked it went down. I’ve been saying between the captain & crew, there seems to have been some big failures. To have sunk so quickly, the hatches had to be left open. There’s also reports of the mast snapped off, which would definitely weight down the yacht to list & w/open hatches &/or doors, the water would certainly pour in easily. The crew never awakened anyone w/life vests, as should have been done, too. They should have been better prepared ahead of time & when the storm hit, better prepared & able to alert everyone below & help get them out. I’ve also stated the mast was too big for the yacht...b/c of ‘status’, over safety.
@@Oakleaf700 Status symbol, no doubt. There’s different reports as to whether it snapped, or not. Eye witness from the captain who rescued the ppl on the life raft, said it did. Witness from land said it appeared to ‘bend’, taking the Bayesian toward the water, before they couldn’t see it anymore. Regardless, the weight had to be _major._ The investigation will tell...
Thanks Esysman for a very thorough explanation so far, not too long at all. Chris Freers input is very interesting, intelligent, and well founded. Please thank him for his contribution. I look forward to his further contributions. Clearly there will be a full inquest but the initial observations are very much welcomed. We just hope they recover the body of the final victim soon. Good work and please keep it up Colin & Julie, S/V Skoolie Too, UK
When a helicopter ditches in water it immediately turns over 180 degrees due to the engine and rotor weight being at the top of the craft. Rescue helicopter crews train in simulations in pools how to get out of an overturned craft in the dark by knowing what the craft feels like in an upturned situation. Passengers and crew on a yacht do not do this sort of training, it would be impractical, especially for the passengers to undergo such training, but crews should take note of what's on the ceilings and try to identify by feel what it might be like in such a situation. It could save their lives and potentially the lives of passengers under their guidance. When left is right and up is down and it is dark is a terrifying thought. My heart goes out to the families of the victims of the Bayesian.
Actually when fire fighting training, you are in (double decker portacabins in my experience), in full respiratory gear, you have to go into the dark searching for obstacles/bodies by feel with your back up team. You have to go through openings, up stairs, and when you get to the fire the heat is pretty intense. You have to be aware of where you are if possible so you can withdraw if you cannot put the fire out. I suspect you are right, even for crew that train often, disorientation that happened so fast was too much for the poor guests as no crew could have got to them given the violence of the storm and forces on the yacht
Imagine inviting a rich banker and his wife on a cruise, but mentioning that they have to undergo a nightmarish training session beforehand😂 So sad that they didn't realise what a dangerous situation they were putting themselves into. I hate to say it but I blame the owner, ultimately their safety was his responsibility
Thank you for this comprehensive discussion with what is known so far. It's terribly bad luck for those on board, and I expect with the vessel at 90° over, the cabin doors on the downward side would be above the occupiers head and probably with water rushing in before the people had time to gather their senses. I do hope they can raise the vessel and reconstruct the incident so that valuable lessons can be learnt. Cheers.
I did years of sailing, and you end up with lot of respect for the power/force of the wind. And from the hundreds of yachts that I have looked at, the mast on this vessel was too long. The leverage it provides is enormous if you have high wind loadings. The survivor's will provide the answers to what happened. Ego scrambles lots of brains.
i have done a little sailing, but a load of sailboat model making- not saying its worth much, but its same principles on smaller scale, and I thought similar to you.
Thank you for your sensitive analysis of this terrible tragedy. I was once crewing on a very small passenger boat (in daylight) where the possibility of abandoning ship arose. We’d taken the decision to leave the passengers at the destination and arranged land transport for their return and were bringing the boat back to port. Years later I still have vivid memories of the sea conditions. The crew and passengers of the Bayesian have suffered the most terrifying experience imaginable. It might help if MSM and others waited for an official enquiry before apportioning blame.
When news of this tragedy first surfaced, I mentioned to one of my colleagues that I thought the large glass sliding doors, from Aft deck to Saloon would have had a large bearing on the down-flooding and resultant catastrophe. I would think that shell doors and swim platforms would have to be closed for security, even at MARSEC level 1. Whilst I was master on a commercial vessel in Sydney, Australia, during a microburst event, the racing yacht ‘Wild Oats X’ - whilst secured to the dock, was hit by a gust that heeled her over to approximately 60 degrees (With her 4.6m draught!). Her distance from my vessel was approximately 100 metres and shortly thereafter, she (momentarily) COMPLETELY DISAPPEARED in the associated rainstorm, so I would presume that the reason “The lights went out” (As shown on the CCTV clip) could possibly have been from the heavy rainfall, not the foundering. Tornadoes have been proven (By Doppler RADAR) to regularly have the highest recorded wind speeds on Earth (Stronger than the most powerful Cat 5 TRS!) Up to 500km/h! The strongest recorded wind gust in a cyclone (407.164 km/h - Cyclone Olivia April 10th 1996) would have paled in comparison… Downflooding would definitely have been the deal-breaker.
OK good , an experienced Skipper. Michael, look back at the previous video (from eSyman) at the AIS view of the anchorage. Run it at .25 speed and see if you can explain what happened from the blast of wind that up-anchored Bayesian & Sir RBP (at 01.24 UTC) to 02.05 where Sir RBP anchor resets, and Bayesian appears to be pointing SSE and stationary. it remains in this position until the AIS signal is lost at 03.07. Is there an explanation other than it's (accidentally!!) anchored by its stern for that hour?
And there was the 2017 hurricane, Irma, which had a recorded wind gust and measured over the Island of St Barths at +/- 450 km/h before the wind machine exploded.
Those large, glass sliding doors to the Saloon have been on my mind from the start. Could a passenger have decided to take a look on deck during the night and not secure those doors? If the Bayesian heeled to 90 degrees with those doors open, that would certainly quickly introduce a lot of water into the hull. So far, the talk of the crew leaving one or more hatches open is just that--talk. I've not seen any reports from the divers indicating that an open hatch has been found. I hope the Bayesian can be salvaged and investigators can then get a good look to determine what likely sank her. I also completely agree with you that the "disappearance" of the Bayesian that appears in the land-based CCTV footage is down to visibility with either increasing rain, the Bayesian drifting further out as it dragged its anchor, or both.
While Chris Freer is a yacht designer and everything he says about righting moment in yachts speaks sense, this channel and Chris focus on a keel setup said to be a ballast bulb of some 200T at the base of the lifting keel. This is incorrect. Bayesian, formerly Salute is well photographed on the hard prior to launching. As per the designer Ron Holland, Perini and photo evidence, the keel design contains the essential righting moment within a long relatively shallow draft (4.05m) stub keel. The keel "extension" rotates down in plate form to 9.83m draft. No possibility of a 200T bulb. The real issue is why Bayesian took on so much water in so little time. Divers report she lies on her starboard side and is intact. They had no easy points of access, which suggests the large lazarette / garage transom door was closed as was the port stern quarter door used as an access ramp for guests. Many an ocean racing yacht has lost its keel, turned turtle and not sunk quickly. Drum in the Fastnet was towed back to shore and refitted for the Whitbread. Numerous Vendee Globe sailors have lost keels, some sailed back to shore, others were rescued from their yachts that were still floating. Where I agree with Chris Freer, is that modern super yacht design is possibly lacking some important safety aspects. This yacht should have been able to roll on her side pinned down by wind and not sink so quickly. That is what most ocean yachts are designed to do. With hatches closed, most ocean yachts have a near central companion way that floats above the water line when they're pinned down on their side. If multiple companion ways on super yachts are off centre and closer to the gunwale, this may be the Archiles heel as well as the large windows in the superstructure. This is the question that needs answering as Perini also says there are mandatory watertight bulkheads.
@@antc5010 have you seen the reaction of the builder? This ship wasn't designed to be able to roll on its side. 63 degrees of heel would already be critical according to the builder.
I was wondering if some places like the engine room acted as bulk heads but the doors were left open or didn't swing shut because of the heeling over when someone left that area. Then the boat was swamped and down it went.
In order for Bayesian to have sunk as quickly as she did it seems clear that she must have flooded rapidly. Once recovery operations are complete, it will be important for the investigation of the incident to establish the status of all openings, open or closed.
+1, If it was fully knocked down with hatches/doors open the flow rate into a boat could be too fast to move against. Only 6" of fast flowing water is enough to knock an adult off their feet and 12" can sweep away cars.
Not a sailor. We're ranchers in an area prone to great storms. We have to be on watch 24/7. When WX reports or radar shows storms coming, we get the stock in, the outbuildings closed up and the house battened down. We do this before the storm hits. Wouldn't sailors do the same?
@@gingerjessyIt's pretty obvious that this crew got complacent. Owners probably thought they could trust the captain the same way we trust the pilot when we fly
Thank you so much for the information on this platform. I am a former Naval officer and sea sailing instructor in the Netherlands. From the stability lessons at the Naval Academy I remember some insights. Your referral to the builder claiming the vessel could heel up to 73 degrees keel up drew my attention. Just 73 degrees? I cannot imagine that being sufficient for any type of sailing yacht. And I seriously doubt that number meets the CE A norm, although I have not checked it. One of the lessons learned could be compulsory publication of the stability curves for any type of yacht they put on the market. Normally, in my experience, that information is handled as if it were a national secret…
@@TimPerskie My reading was that down was 73-88; up was 120. But where it was set is to be determined. A curious question, considering that all watch officers survived. Also to be revealed is the status of various hull and bulkhead openings. At this time, I anxiously await the final report. And I also wonder why others seemed so much more aware of weather forecasts. --Unfamiliar with this vessel, but I would to tend to keep the CB down, except to reduce draft. Passenger comfort?; better ways exist. Wrapping the chain?; Let the watch handle it.
Excellent analysis from the yacht designer. If you look at a normal sailing vessels there is very little superstructure above deck level so the centre of gravity is much lower. Sacrificing seaworthiness for "glamour", maybe o.k most of the time BUT..... Blaming the crew at this point in time is disgusting IMO.
Flat deck Yatchs are either racer inspired or inspired by historic sailing vessels. But many Yatchs old and modern have raised superstructures .. but nothing compared to motor Yatchs and cruise liners. They are heavily ballasted.. even with the keel up. They may also use pumped water ballast tanks... Even explorer Yatchs like Beowolf ..use this system.
Sure, but that should never be designed by a naval architect. The poor souls lost and the traumatized survivors, while they may be judged and damned as extremely braggadocios for pathetic reasons, were, nevertheless, not the experts who should never have designed this death trap.
Thank you so much for this particular video! The designer, Chris Freer, clearly knows what he is talking about and presents a detailed and accurate description of this vessel and what likely happened. My first reaction was how unusual this accident must be, since modern sailing yachts should be designed to be stable. But the tall mast gave me a clue that this yacht must have a very high center of gravity, resulting in sensitivity to easy heeling. The centerboard ("lifting keel") must have been up, because that would be a good reason for the yacht being unable to right itself after heeling so sharply. The explanation about the lounge sliding doors also makes sense as a way for water to penetrate the cabin once the yacht had heeled so far over. This struck me as a truly tragic accident, as I have experience on sailboats, and I have been following coverage of the recovery closely. Thank you again for your videos.
"I have experience on sailboats". But I wonder then why you and many other in the comments - including Chris Frere- don't understand the fundamental difference between a keel and a centreboard. A keel is looking for the stability of a boat, a centreboard not. The centreboard optimises the performance of a boat when going upwind. There are photos of BAYESIAN prior to her first launching which show definitiv that there is no bulbkeel coming in and out but a plate- a centreboard. Nevertheless- perhaps a centreboard down would have given a momentarily, additional stability against sudden heeling.
Tall mast = major design fault avoidable by a 10 year child. Very sad. Just to be able to show off "mast length". Would even have looked much better as a schooner with two masts. Neither a proper sailing boat nor a proper gin-palace, an awkward and useless boat, can't even get into a harbour easily. A cursed boat, sadly. When anyone invites me on a boat my response is always "no thanks, I'm a landlubber". Last night in my bed in my cosy cottage in England there was a storm outside. The solid building didn't move one inch, my window just rattled slightly. I said a prayer for all those poor souls who perish at sea. Some heroic people have to do that as a job, to keep world trade moving. I pity the guests, just there to please an important client, they received an invitation they couldn't refuse
@@volkerkonig9376 I'm a sailor & amateur boat designer/builder who has designed/built 3 successful small sharpies (by eye, with zero failures) up to 21' 6"...in which the crew IS the ballast. I'm sure Chris Freer knows the difference between a keel & a centerboard. Bayesian has a retracting centerboard & a shallow keel. The centerboard is heavy but was retracted, so didn't provide much righting arm. The keel contains ballast but is shallow, so doesn't provide much righting arm. Then there is the windage of the mast...& what a waterspout does...& I've seen waterspouts (at least 15 of them) from the deck of USCGC Eagle. Bayesian might have recovered if her centerboard was down, but apparently board down isn't SOP at anchor, & that mast & those sliding doors (plus whatever else may have been left open) worked against her. -Angelika's Husband
@@volkerkonig9376 It seems from your comment that you do not understand the difference between a keel and a centerboard. A centerboard is a movable keel, that can be raised and lowered. A keel is a general term for the bottom centerline of a boat from which the ribs are built up. A lifting keel is either a new term or a term used by those who don't know what a centerboard is. Attaching a ballast to the bottom of a centerboard is apparently what makes it a "lifting keel," but to me it's just a ballasted centerboard. I hope this helps.
@@CharlesWhite-j4f I agree that it's sad! The only apparent reason for the oddly tall mast seems to have been vanity, because it makes the boat top heavy and therefore easy to knock down, especially when the keel is raised and cannot counteract it. Thank you for your response.
This was the Herald of Free Enterprise of yachts. No wonder the manufactures are blaming the crew. They would be well advised to keep quiet until after the enquiry.
Yacht manufacturer: "Yes sir Mr Trillionaire. We will build you a boat with a thousand foot mast that will be as stable as a Rolls Royce and Guaranteed unsinkable"
I'm trying to visualize the movement of the yacht in those wind conditions. Let's say it was partially, or fully, knocked down, but also being blown backwards, and/or swinging violently on the anchor, with the forward hull even slightly lifted by 200 kph wind pressing on hull and tall mast. The reverse slanting stern would become one giant water scoop. (worse if the rear garage door was open) Angela Bacares has made a statement that carries a lot of weight here. She was awoken by an unusual "tilt," and went topside to check things out. (she does after all own the boat, at least it's registered in her name) Soon after, she found herself walking through broken glass and received injuries from this. Broken glass would likely come from broken salon doors or salon windows. That made me think of the idea that Bayesian was moving backwards, stern somewhat down from mast and hull windage, and scooping water into the salon up and over the stern, crashing through those doors. Broken glass in the salon has to show the violence of the motion, even if temporary, and just how high the water had reached in the knockdown. The 6 guests that survived, must surely have already been on deck at the time of the incident, along with all the crew. The jolting tilt that alarmed Angela Bacares would have most likely been felt by all the crew (keen to a boat's normal movements at anchor), causing them to take action in response to a storm and head topside. Likely some of the guests were also awoken and went topside as well, a normal response on a boat, where it made it possible for them to survive such a rapid flooding. Now, another possibility, some of the crew and/or guests were still awake, yes even at 4AM, as this was a huge celebration of a massive financial victory, partying all night? Hot night, drunken guests, usually ends up with someone wanting to go swimming, so the aft garage door opened to accommodate? There are SO many possible scenarios, but a lowered aft garage door, or port tender door, for whatever reason, with that kind of boat movement, would set up such a freak occurrence. What's amazing to me, is how all those that survived being thrown in the water, ended up in just one life-raft? Cudos to the crew for rounding up the survivors, 15 out of 16 is pretty impressive, on a dark and windy night.
how do you conclude it must be going backwards because she steps in glass? your theory is very shaky if that's all it stands on. We have experience from a crew member in the video you just watched that worked multiple similar ships and he says those doors would slide open and break all the time when under sail/tilt. Because of the shape of the hull it's much more likely the ship's bow is pointed in to the weather, I am also pretty sure those doors are so heavy so that they can hold any imaginable wave because it is an obvious point of failure. And i know from speaking to yacht engineers that the regulations become more and more strict the farther away you are from the waterline. So you can start to see how heavy those doors are, they can easily destroy themselves if the mast is parallel to the water it falls straight down. With the Ship completely on it's side and the door open it's done real quick. But the whole absolutely ginormous lifting keels scares the crap out of me to be honest, it's super obvious you shouldn't build a ship this big if you need to reinvent the wheel multiple times just to fit in harbors. You want to go on to the ocean with a bunch of design elements all the engineers told you not to do, but you just gave them more money and made them do it anyway? At the end of the day we sailed the oceans for hundreds of years with a bunch of different designs but they always started with the keel and built a ship around it. You can start somewhere else, but it sure works well the old way.
@@pimvanduijne I agree that the bow would likely point into the wind, I would say definitely even, how could it not? Then if you have a strong force coming down on the bow and the anker rope would pull it down at that point, the stern would lift and suddenly the vessel is unstable and tips. I only have experience with small boats, but but all the weight on the bow and it becomes pretty wobbly, regardless of size. And, it would be nobody's fault either. Time will hopefully tell.
Thank you for a sensible explanation I worked on super yachts with ElectroMed from Gibraltar in the 80's living on my own 12 metre boat. Well done to the recovery team in Comissario Montabano area..
Very informative. I have always wondered about the unusual height of the masts on many of these luxury sailing yachts. Now I know why they are so ridiculously high. Vanity!
Mr Freer's comments are 100% spot on. The comments from the CEO are just disgusting cya as usual, better if he just said we will support the investigating authorities of the tragedy in every manner possible.
No point in wasting time - the captain fucked up. Had no experience of mediterranean storms (its not the sort of thing you forget) and he was obviously asleep. There was plenty of time to shut the doors or get everyone out. Shutting the hatches would have been enough.
Well that depends. He could have designed an amazingly safe boat. But if a boat is out in a sudden storm with and it's pushed nearly over by a wave or water enters the vessel through a bathing platform or tender door or whatever that shouldn't be open, or if water swamps the boat and ingresses into through bulk head doors which shouldn't be open then the boat will sink. Imagine for example if the boat was forced sideways into a swell and water entered a bathing platform for example. That isn't to say he's off the hook, or doesn't have questions to answer, but crew error could also be the cause - going out in bad weather, not preparing properly for passage, lax safety, lax emergency drills, inadequate training / certification, kowtowing to unreasonable demands by passengers / owner that compromise safety. There are a lot of potential errors that have nothing to do with the boat per se but who was operating it.
Some facts. Thank you. As a retired AF pilot, I can say this event is not very different from that of aviation accidents. In the absence of facts, we blame. Those who fear they may be accountable, defend. Along the way, we rage, we mourn, we investigate, we litigate, we legislate. In end, all I can think about is what those poor people went through. And what those unfortunate 7 endured.
Clearly the designer and builder are getting their "blame" game together already . . sadly. Rather than wait for conclusive evidence which will surely come. My guess is that there will be fault on all sides to a lesser or greater degree but it's very easy to blame the crew for not acting correctly, or not fast enough, to an event which surely would have been well beyond their comprehension or training. I was at sea for over 20 years and would never have believed that a vessel of this size could be overwhelmed at anchor. It reminds of the sinking of the Flag Theofano which was overwhelmed in the eastern approaches to the Solent in January 1990.
The Bayesian tragedy brought me to this channel, and I've quickly come to appreciate the well-researched, balanced, and respectful coverage you bring. Thank you, sir, for your fine work. What ever happened to sink the Bayesian, I expect we'll discover that several, low-probability events unfortunately combined there. It's incredible to me that the Italian Sea Group would dare make any public comments placing blame elsewhere before anything is really known about what sent the Bayesian down. Shame on them.
My point is that we really just don't know what transpired to cause the Bayesian to go down so quickly. Until we do, I can't see how anything can be said to be the most likely cause. Maybe the crew was at fault, but maybe something failed or a peculiarity of the Bayesian's design, loadout or manufacture caused a sudden ingress of water. Maybe the weather produced a one-in-a-million combination of wind and rough seas that no craft that size could have survived. A thorough investigation is needed before making definitive statements about the cause.
@@Fuegoturbo it was a typical mediterranean summer storm, typified by the downburst nature of them. It was forecast. It was expected. And the captain or person in charge should have shut all the windows. Batten down the hatches, as they say. Then everything would have been fine.
Another expert of this particular boat, said in the bad weather, the captain and crew needed to batton the hatches, lift anchor, lower the keel and sail into the wind. Key words BATTON THE HATCHES in a storm (everybody knows that , it’s inexcusable) , start engines, and position the boat. I am a first mate and sail , can dock a 36’ sailboat, and have been in a bad storm, with 13’ waves going over our boat and water spouts beside us, it was terrifying. We tied down and road into the waves. And then 5 minutes later it was calmer. In my opinion, Mr. Lynch’s sea worthy yacht size, absolutely could have been safe in this storm, if handled properly ( Palermo had 19 water spouts in that area Sunday night)
Actually, you don't want to raise the anchor and go navigating about in a ferocious storm at night (even with a modern GPS chart plotter), especially if in a rather closed anchorage (not the case with "Bayesian"). Rather, you turn on the engine(s) and power forward into the wind to relieve the stress on the anchor to prevent dragging. I did this a number of times on my boat. Steering under power can also reduce swinging if the rudder is in the propeller stream. Most storms last a short time and in half an hour it's over. Different if a massive front or system hits, then escape to the open sea may be preferable, but such things are predictable (Mistral and Bura?).
There is a tradition or unwritten rule in the Royal Air Force that you never blame dead crewmen with out compelling and complete evidence. I can see that this is bad publicity for the builders but going to sea can never be 100% safe. This was a very rare and very extreme weather event that over took the Bayesian very quickly. I have not heard of a vessel being involved in a waterspout incident and I have only seen them 2 or 3 times and always during the daytime. I do know the recommended procedures. I think the company by blaming the crew is putting their interests first.
A Palermo sailor said it was just a normal 'tempest' and in that area they appear every end of August. Extreme event yes, but not uncommon. Quite the opposite.
@@riccardo5541 A chef is so busy all day long, he was probably hard and fast asleep, but someone in the crew should have awakened him as there were most likely a few others in the crew quarters that did survive. Unless he went to try and alert the others that didn't survive.
Thanks eSysman for the update video on this VERY SAD sinking....l was on a large sailing boat back in about 1965 in Tampa Bay Florida..... An saw two huge side by side WATER SPOUTS TORNADOES hit two big fishing it was terrible....... Old F-4 pilot Shoe🇺🇸
God bless you sir, I am subscribing to your channel - I am an aviation enthusiast and would love any aviation content you might upload. Ron Rogers, a retired United Air Lines pilot, has a particularly good aviation related channel.
@@steveshoemaker6347 There are several aviation youtubers who interview pilots such as yourself, as your stories are inspirational to a lot of this. By the way I was taught how to use computers and the Internet by my late grandfather, memory eternal, who was an avionics engineer who worked on various projects, one notable example being the Beach Starship, which I’ve always loved, sadly only 15 survived Raytheon’s attempted extermination of the type, but at any rate, he was a WWII veteran who would have celebrated his 100th birthday this January.
@@theleastofpilgrims3379 Well i am in my 80's now i have lost all of my family on both sides....Wife and kids all gone for one reason or another....Sad but we carry on waiting in line for our turn....Blessing to you my friend..... Shoe🇺🇸
Seems like yacht makers are very keen to add holes to the hull in the form of retractable doors. Yes, they are handy, but if there's an emergency situation, you've suddenly got a gaping hole that needs to be closed. And those "holes" are very close to the waterline.
OK one important point here: High wind/Squall vs Tornado/Water Spout. I don't believe there is an established tornado procedure other than "see and avoid". The outcome of hitting a tornado is not and can not be predicted other than it won't end well. Steer toward it? Yeah ..... as good of an idea as any at that point. But the velocity, compactness and total wind change of this event cannot be planned for. All bets are OFF. It does need to be determined if a water spout was in fact involved.
Good comments by the yacht designer. A sloop rig on a hull this length looks ridiculous and is ridiculous. I note that Bayesian (formerly Salute) was the only 56 metre Perini Navi given a sloop rig; all the rest, I believe, were ketch rigged. I have heard rumour that Bayesian was denied insurance to cross the Atlantic because of the sloop rig and the resulting silly mast but that might not be correct. Additional specific design failures outlined on these videos are (i) keel pin too noisy to allow keel down when anchored; and (ii) main cabin glass doors prone to failure and opening when the yacht heeled. More generally, the design trade-offs required to make a yacht imitate a luxury hotel seem to have led to a disastrous failure.
Perseus 3 is a 60m Perini sloop. There are a couple of comparable Alloy/Dubois sloops like Kokomo and Red Dragon as well. Additionally, there is M5 (Mirabelle V), Aglaia, and Ngoni but all of these boats have carbon fiber masts.
Not only does such a tall mast look ridiculous, it raises the centers of gravity and of buoyancy. A deep keel is needed to counteract the effects of the mast height when the boat heels to keep it from capsizing. The design is comparable to 19th century clipper ships, which had many tall masts and narrow beams, for speed, but deep keels to keep them stable.
I can’t get past those swim and tender platforms being open to the sea. Especially when storming. Hatches and water tight doors aren’t glamorous but a boat is a boat.
"The Bayesian was built in 2008 with David Hutchinson, captain of its sister ship Rosehearty, telling Boat International 'she was bulletproof'. He told the specialist publication: 'We've been to Antarctica and Chile, and we've had her in 70knots of wind ' but they had never been put in a situation that he felt was unmanageable".
@@deusvult2559 Why were no crew members monitoring the maritime weather especially with all the current available technology? How did the crew manage to save themselves and not the chef and missing guests? Why was there no emergency lighting to counter the darkness? Such a sad tragedy.
@@mottawa1 Pure speculation but perhaps the crew was aware of some impending weather, thus up and about in anticipation. Maybe in the darkness it was the waterspout (tornado) that caught them off guard.
USCGC Eagle's fore & main masts are 150' from waterline to truck, but Eagle is 295' long & well-ballasted internally with a relatively deep hull. I still didn't like being surrounded by waterspouts in her!
Thank you for again providing such an unbiased, informative glimpse into the possibilities of what could have caused this tragedy. I always appreciate your approach to all topics you cover. You never fail to provide quality information that isn’t influenced by anything other than facts and interpretation based on your wealth of knowledge from personal experience and education as a yachting professional. Your coverage of this tragedy has been cited on some large worldwide news sources. I know this isn’t the first time, but clearly your work has been noticed and respected! Congratulations, and I wish you continued success.
An excellent commentary. For those who made it onto the deck, probably in little more than a T shirt and shorts, in darkness and rain driven by 70kt winds it would have been terrifying. Once the heel angle got to 30 degrees or so it would have been impossible to stand and if you happened to be on the low side you'd likely simply fall off into the water with the boat towering above you and if you were on the high side you'd fall across the boat into whatever stood in your path.
This has been a traumatic event for the entire yachting community and most likely for you personally having to delve into the details as you always do. All the best to everybody involved.
The designer may very well be correct. (In my opinion the keel was up, the anchor lost grip, the boat swung and the extreme wind needed only the mast laying the boat sideways, and then like a bathtub open for water.)
Frere's summation is exactly what mine was upon first hearing this. I immediately said "if it had a lifted keel and mast-furled mainsail, it stood no chance in that situation.
It does not have a mast furling main sail it has a boom furling mainsail. But your theory makes no sense because if it was slab reefing mainsail the weight would be in the same place.
According to some of the specs on Bayesian that I saw it was ABS classed. I would be shocked if it could pass those inspections if it had such a dangerous flaw - the salon doors dropping opening uncommanded with heavy listing. Given the heat at the time, I would not assume (as I’ve read in some reports) that portholes or doors were left open for cooling. That’s a ludicrous idea for a modern luxury yacht with air conditioning.
As it pertains to aerodynamics wind forces, it’s important to make note that the force wind produces is equal to the square of the velocity. Example, when the wind increases from 25 to 50 knots, the force it produces is 4 times greater at 50 knots than the force it exhibited at 25 knots.
@@susanwhite7474 Until watching this video I did not fully appreciate how the mast and furled sails still create issues with the center of gravity and crosswinds.
The Bayesian is unable to right herself if she is fully knocked down further than 74 or 89 degrees respectively. The manufacturer and the physics have confirmed same. From there she will sink in a matter of minutes-stern first, bow last. The guests quarters were in there aft, the crew quarters forward.
2 місяці тому+1
Not being able to get back from 90 degrees... Wow.
I know right?! I've got a 40 ft sail boat that can go to 150. Anything after that hold your breath and it'll right herself in a minute or two with wave action. (All things being equal)
This makes perfect sense. On what being said. The front sliding door needs to be engineered. Yet. The owners need to drop the ego and go with what is practical. Thanks.
Thanks for providing more detailed information on this tragedy. I respect your careful and knowledgeable explanations. I'll follow your suggested link near the end of your video.
Shipyard pointing fingers at the crew..... The shipyard should've waited for the MAIB report before making any allegations. That was a poor PR decision. Of course they should make a statement but certainly not any allegations at such a premature stage into the investigation.
First, my heart goes to the bereaved families... I hope yacht builders will always put safety above all and not looks or features. I think one of the reasons they say semi-custom yacht is that some construction designs cannot be changed or removed because of safety issues. I think the yacht industry has many cases to learn to prevent such unfortunate accidents.
The "yacht industry" has been going for thousands of years. Surprising that the most basic errors can still be made, like Number One: "No openings or holes in the hull" and Two: "Don't make it top-heavy".
Thank you for providing a thoughtful and well researched reporting of this tragic freak event. The scenario presented by Freer makes perfect sense, in which case the crew had little time to react and most of the passengers no chance to get out. Unfortunately there will be arm-chair quarterbacking for months until a final report is made by the responsible investigative authorities.
This should be required on every blue water boat no matter the size as a safety standard: there should be (per cabin per bunk) a scuba tank, mask and fins. So if it’s a king bed in the cabin: 2 air tanks, 2 masks, 2 sets of fins. Mike Lynch, his daughter, his guests, his crew could have all been alive today had they had what I think should have been common practice by now. Big sailer like the Bayesian, there would be plenty of room to implement my idea.
Not only was this a turbulent squall, reports are Bayesian was struck by the waterspout ...a marine tornado of high and twisting winds....while a anchor before dawn. This was not a ship and crew sailing in a storm with precautions taken, but anchored. Likely with hatches and skylights open to enjoy the night breezes. Notably all the apparent casualties were passengers except for the cook. And if the 240-ft-plus mast was snapped-off, the weight of the mast, the fouled rigging and the unbroken mast stays might have held it to the deck weighing one side down and preventing Bayesian from returning to an upright position allowing even more water to enter. Wrong place, wrong time.
No -----> on the snapped mast keeping it from correcting, but rather the "righting momentum" of the vessel would have been instantly corrected when the top of the mast touched the water and the hull would have corrected itself within seconds. It's a physics thing. However, if one of those doors were left opened, especially the side door and the ship heeled over in that storm towards the side where the side door was opened, it would have scooped enough water into the vessel to a point that, once it corrected itself, the weight of the flooding at that time would have caused the vessel to sit lower than the bottom of the door and therefore continue to take on a massive amount of water. Such water would have short circuited any electrical and electronics required to close that door, therefore allowing the flooding to occur at a high rate. That flooding and the house batteries (huge amp hours capacity) would have electrified the water inside of the vessel, once it rose over the sole/floors and therefore would have killed the guest all while the crew was above deck or tossed/jumped into the ocean to save themselves, which would have been a selfish move, unless they saw that the guests were already dead. These questions will be uncovered soon by the capt & crew, (unless they got together and came up with their own version to keep from fingers being pointed at them).
Perhaps there is more CCTV footage that is more clear, more conclusive. While an SOP is just that, a procedure, does not mean that it was followed. It requires human interpretation and execution - no guarantee they were followed in this event. It is best to wait for ALL investigated information and data from the NTSB equivalent is in and available. If the rescue divers had cameras, we could see if these door(s) were/are in fact open. Mr. Freer is spot on, in every aspect.
Once again, there is a manufacturer rushing to judgment in an attempt to distance themselves from the causes and consequences. As a lawyer, it is difficult to think of anything more stupid.
Dunno, they haven't gone as far as claiming they can't be sued because of a Disney+ subscription so they haven't hit the lower strata of stupidity yet!
Tks for sharing the details. We professionals always can and have to learn from accidents. I read since more than 30 years sea accident reports. - Sadly - since hundreds of years - many of our sailing anchestors paid with their lives for the learning about an increasing safetyness on sea. In fact, we have annually around 3,000 official accidents with boats/ships. And with the increasing safety rules/technologies work on high seas and offshore became steadily safer. Yet, we always have to keep learning as the incident with the Bayesian shows. - Such YT channel is an important source of facts to keep sharp. - May the lost souls R.I.P. My condolences go to the families, friends and colleagues.
@@tlsmack800 they typically close all water level doors at night or in transit. I don’t believe the doors were open. The first story as you recall they left a door open into the engineering space. Had they closed a door that was supposed to be closed and locked that new yacht would not have sunk.
If there is a very tall mast, two things come into play. The leverage at the top will be large, due to the height, and the wind up there will be stronger due to it being less encumbered by interaction with the surface. Leave a hatch open somewhere, and those far below would have no chance. I prefer hotels myself.
Again. Thanks for FACTS , LOGIC, AND REASON rather than dramatic finger pointing. No one sues if a tornado knocks down a house. If one strikes on sea why does fault on humans or designers need to be placed? It was a very tragic event. The fact the humans killed were rich and famous doesn’t make it more tragic. Human life was lost. We can only hope something will be learned from this to help prevent similar from happening again.
Only if they contributed to the sinking, and if the vessel should have survived the event. Poor design or crew negligence need to be proven or discounted. If an act of God in legal terms, not sure insurance would pay. If desin flaw, similar yachts may need retrofitting. If crew was negligent, they could be civilly or criminally liable.
@@TerryKeever agree. However until they get the ship up so they can good look at all moving and broken parts , talk to everyone , and figure out what actually happened pointing fingers at/accusing crew, designer, builder, and everyone else is not positive.
What if the builder or designer stated or implied it was unsinkable? Wouldn't that induce a false sense of security leading to complacency or lack of preparedness by passengers and crew?
@@oneworldawakening TOTALLY! Likely that possibility never crossed anyone’s mind . it was just a nasty storm and big super yachts don’t sink in minutes from a normal storm. .. even those billed as nonsinkable don’t just suddenly sink. Even if the crew were all on deck securing stuff during a storm ( I don’t know if they were or not). why would you wake up the guests ? Let them sleep through it if they can.
Thanks for this analysis. Wasn't aware of your channel before, looked around a bit, great and interesting content, so I subscribed. Looking forward to more high quality analysis and reporting like this.
If the tender door was left open, the divers wouldn't have needed to cut a hole in the hull to gain access, they could just swim in through tender door
When a yacht designer says the normal maximum heel would be 120 degrees and maybe 90 degrees with the keel up, but the actual manufacturer says the critical heel would already be at 63 degrees with the keel up, then I think the cause is pretty clear. How could they design a sailing yacht with those parameters and an oversized mast? So to be clear: a normal yacht could be pushed over to where the mast would be flat on the water and it would still right itself. Making it very unlikely to capsize. This yacht however had an extreme mast which made extreme angles more likely and combined that with capsizing even if the mast would still be well away from the water. I'd be curious to hear from Chris Freer what he'd say about a critical heel angle of 63 degrees... The very premature finger pointing of the manufacturer also leads to think that obvious mistakes were made in the design.
But this boat builder has built several similar boats and so far no similar incidents. Plus these designs are passed by the most stringent regulatory bodies. The owner would never get insurance if the design was unsafe.
The technology available could easily drop the keel if a given tilt angle was reached even if it could cause damage to the mechanism it would save the boat. Having said that why would a captain anchor in 50m of water but keep the keel raised? Also leaving stern doors open etc. unfortunately crews get complacent over time in any industry but we will have to wait until the vessel is salvaged and an inquiry has been completed.
This Chris Freer statement is very thoughtful and hopefully gets heard in the places it matters! Thanks for another great video! As always I greatly respect how well you point out where you get information from, whose opinion you quote and where you have your own opinion. Great job, journalistic excellency!
I thought it waffle and factually incorrect on one of its major points (the type of keel), pls full of conjecture (its not know if the yacht capsized). Not helpful at all.
Excellent overview of the situation, this is clearly going to be in the news for years as there will be suits over the deaths. Sometimes your number is up and this appears to be one of those times.
I'd like to know how close the water spout came along. That might shed some light on the violence of the wind, and explain why other boats had it easier, especially since we know how tornados work and can put a lot of force down in a smaller area. If that spout hit the yacht or even grazed it I doubt many designs would stand up at all, and that might explain why the boat seemed to be tipped so quickly. There's room to ask questions and review details but way too early to finger wag or claim solutions would have surely solved anything.
there was no spout. that all started with a bad translation by google. the downburst, which is common on the med, is often translated from spanish/italian as "waterspout".
@@LiveFromLondon2well no, downburst is different than “tornadic waterspout”. From the reports available it seems it was the latter, NOAA describes both phenomena, no need to translate anything from either Spanish or Italian.
Brother, this is clearly very moving for you. I could see as you spoke about it that this has really mattered and had a huge effect on you. Sorry man, hope you start to feeling better soon.
Even if it was the crew, this is such a stupid thing for the builder to say. They have the option to refuse to comment until the investigation is completed. And I don't think it was the crew. That rig was ridiculous.
@@gifthorse-n7g You can say that, but have the FACTS changed? The design (concept, rig & keel for a vessel this size) looked wrong to me from the first reports & that hasn't changed. Add dangerous oversized sliding companionway doors, a smidge of crew carelessness & a giant waterspout, & there is little more for an inquiry to "find".
I tried to access the boat builder's website yesterday and it was 'unavailable'. (Curiosity about another boat.) Others seem to have been successful. I'm a trained weather spotter of 34 years and not a mariner. I too think the crew is not at fault! Too many, even mariners who commented here, don't understand the weather phenomenons occuring that are too powerful for our current ideas of built to withstand the unpredictable.
Looking at the arrangement below deck, once heeled, even if people in the guest cabins were able to maintain some orientation, getting to the centerline doors and passageway would have been nearly impossible - even if not fighting down flooding water.
Yacht owners are in pissing contests for no reason. There will always be someone's yacht that is bigger and better. Especially when there are people who are magnitudes wealthier than some of these people.
@@LL-vk9zc It used to be called keeping up with Bill Gates. The difference in wealth was and still is enormous. Trump likes to think he is richer than he is.
Thing is in that video you showed the mast was perfectly upright.... not even swaying at all. I would actually have to side with the rear doors being open as a cause. Just like this one in a million weather even this can also be a lapse in procedure from the crew... Particularly since they might not realize the gravity of not following proper procedure. Any significant waves would have flooded the rear section of the ship and led to rapid flooding...
Constantino is a fool! The yacht arrived about 10PM, so there would be no need to open those areas until guests wanted to leave the next morning. And he's making accusations BEFORE they salvage it and make a report.
@@lazygardens Shops have AC, but they still have doors open. How else does a moored boat sink that quickly unless doors were open ? Tall mast, raised keel as in only 35m water, violent winds. Guess the boat keeled over enough to flood through open hatches or doors. Maybe.
What about emergency lighting? I would think a boat that cost millions of pounds would have emergency lighting that would come on if the main power goes out.
One trip I made as a Captain on a 42' S/F private boat offshore. We lost an engine. I will say that was intense. We were 20 miles offshore fishing. We blew a hole in a C 903ci the size of a football. This was on the outboard side and glass hull only 4" away. No damage but not a fun time.
Definitely the most respectful, knowledgeable and detailed analysis of this tragedy is on this channel. Thank you for your professionalism and honesty.
He doesn’t know sailing yachts as much as power yachts
the mast was so high.....a tornado hit the mast.
@@spaceskipster4412 Were any crew members on board when the yacht sank?
Well said.
Absolutely.
You have done an excellent job with your research and diplomacy in delivery of knowledge as it has come to you. This A very respectfully written and produced vlog and I hope your followers can respond understand all that you are doing for us in the industry.
Well done, and bravo
He’s made 3 significant mistakes that he had to address. Other than that I would agree
Just curious, would it be possible and beneficial to bring the yacht up to the surface for investigative purposes as to exactly what the cause of the yacht sinking so fast?
@@derekkoonin3460 absolutely it would be very easy. 2 slings and a huge crane. I don’t know what they have available in Italy.
@@derekkoonin3460for sure the super yacht will be thoroughly examined, of that I have no doubt
@@derekkoonin3460 Open hatches &/or doors, is the obvious welcome mat for the ocean to pour in.
This is an excellent and informative video. I was chief engineer on 2 sisterships to Bayesian and have been on over 20 yachts in 27 years in the industry. The crew would have been up and dealing with the situation as it unfolded. They had every right to believe the boat would have handled the storm, its not uncommon to encounter one. What wasn't expected was to be suddenly knocked down. It must have been extremely ferocious for that to happen. At that point there was no chance for them to gather the guests up onto deck, the boat was on its side. How it sank so fast is up for speculation but I'm sure it will be confirmed in the investigation. Remember, this happened in a matter of minutes. In all our safety drills it is always the sole responsibility of one crew member to only assist the guests.
It must have taken on water very quickly so how could that have happened? There are some hatches and access doors around these yachts and subject to much speculation. There is a big hull door in the lazzerette that is used to load guests on and off the tender. (The shell door) This is normally shut at night once the guests are done using the tender for the day. Then the tender is lifted onto the boat and stowed in one of two big deck lockers on the foredeck. These are watertight. As Bayesian only arrived at that anchorage that evening the most likely didn't use the tender or the shell door and it should be shut and dogged.
There is also a swim platform on the transom and this is accessed by steps from the aft deck. The ones I've seen are water tight ie: no access into the yacht from here. Again, these are never left down at night and they had no reason to open it after only arriving in the anchorage at night.
There is another large hatch leading from the main deck to the lazzerette that forms the steps to the aft deck from the sunken cockpit. This is the access to the hull door, engine room, lazzerette, steering and engineers cabin. This is hydraulically operated and normally closed at sea, at the end of the night and in bad weather /heavy rain. There is another access way into the engine room - the emergency access. This access is used when the lazzerette hatch is inaccessible. When the engineer got up as the storm hit he may have opened the lazz hatch and as things were happening quickly he and the crew may have has to access the area multiple times, starting the main engines, extra generators, gathering equipment etc. The emergency entrance is more difficult and slow to enter, having to open up a water tight door and climb down a ladder into the engine room. Again, the crew would not have expected to be knocked down that night so opening the lazz hatch was a reasonable action. Regardless, flooding of the lazzerette and engine room shouldn't have sunk the boat.
There are two doors leading from the wheelhouse that is forward of the salon. These are used by the crew to access the main deck and are electrically operated on pentagram hinges. They are normally closed and dogged at sea. At anchor they were likely used by the night watch keeper to access the main deck as part of his rounds. It's possible this was not dogged and opened.
There is also a crew access hatch on the foredeck. This leads down to the crew area. Its normally dogged at night, especially with a storm approaching but possibly not. There are crew up coming in and out of that hatch at all hours with guests on.
The main salon has two large sliding doors set into heavy stainless frames approximately 2x2 metres each. Similar to what you may find entering big buildings. These operate either automatically as you approach them or by push button. They can be locked shut or open. I've been aboard these yachts under sail a few times and have had instances where as the boat healed over under sail one would open from the sheer weight overcoming the mechanism that operates it. We would have to lock the doors either open or closed and was a problem for the guests wanting to come and go. Normally this is left unlocked so guests can move freely. As they got knocked down it's entirely possible that one of these doors slid open (the other would be hard up onto the stops) and a large volume of water would enter the salon, down the stairs to the guest cabins and eventually into the guest cabins themselves. Literally tons of water in seconds. I have a feeling this was a critical issue. The crew and guests muster on the aft deck in emergencies. They may have opened the sliding doors themselves as part of their preparations. After all, they weren't expecting to be on their side in the next few moments. This will be confirmed in the investigation.
These yachts have a fly bridge where all the operations are controlled from. The main wheel house below has limited visibility but has full controls if needed. There is a large companion way leading to it. This is normally closed at night but could have blown out as water rushed in and the displaced air escaped. It also may have flooded into here once on it's side.
The swinging keel is normally only used under sail, that's what its there for. We sometimes dropped it at anchor to counteract any rolling motion and the crew were right to beleive it's not needed in a storm. I've been underway and anchored in some terrible weather and the keel was retracted. Would it have helped right Bayesian when it got knocked down? Yes. But had the crew known it was going to get bad enough for that to happen they would have dropped it or just avoided the area in the first place. The med has some of the worst and unpredictable weather anywhere. I was on a similar yacht anchored of Cannes when a mistral hit within 20 minutes of the wind picking up at 6am. It was over 60 knts and we broke off our anchor in the process. Keel was up and we weren't being hauled over.
It would be very interesting if he authorities can confirm which (if any) hatches and doors are open as it sits on the floor. It is reported to be resting on its starboard side. The CEO of the Italian sea group has come out to say (amongst other accusations) that the divers confirmed that the shell door was open. He then contradicts himself by saying “be careful, if it turns out it is shut the force of the water as it sank could have shut it”.... As i said, flooding the lazzerette and engine room would not have sunk the boat. I believe that they want to salvage the yacht asap as theres possibly 40 tonnes of diesel and oil onboard.
Like most tragedies it was likely a combination of factors that led to the sinking. Every crew member i worked with was committed to the safe operation of their yachts, well trained and dedicated. These aren't some 3rd world trawlers or cargo ships, they are beautiful and well maintained luxury yachts with good budgets and regulation. For them to have lost people and the boat (their "home") would be devastating to them and I'd like to offer my condolences to everyone involved. Of course the captain knew about the weather. It's often the main topic at the dinner table and watchkeepers are given directions accordingly and were also backed up with written directions if needed. I think the captain would have been up or at least have given orders to be woken as soon as the wind picked up. A lot of crew are sensitive to the boats movement and will get up if it starts moving around due to the weather myself included. Probably why all the crew were saved (apart from the chef unfortunately). They just weren't expecting to be hit with such force it knocked it down possibly to a point further than where it was able to right itself.
I hope we can find out exactly what happened and can learn from it but in this case I am convinced it was a freak event that no one could have possibly thought possible.
do not accuse anyone, wait for the results of the investigation, this is the only kind of comment that we should read thank you
Wow , great thorough overview. It does seem like a very quick freak accident. But what's more worrying if the yacht got knocked flat , there was no hope of it ever righting itself. How were any passengers ever expected to make it out. It was effectively a death trap waiting to kill people.
Excellent post. All of us who work or have worked in the industry are familiar with the operation of large yachts, the training required and the professionalism of the crews. This seems to have been a case of tragic circumstances..I doubt anyone was negligent or is to blame. The crew did a wonderful job to get all those they could off, into a life raft, and to send flares up….Captain retired with 24 years experience of large yachts.
Your description of these power-operated doors & hatches...even to a crew member's cabin!...leaves me still less impressed with this design. It can neither be operated nor even accessed, in places, without power! It's a poor sailboat that can't be operated without power to everything. "Too big for this rig" is just one of it's design flaws.
@@angelikaopland7880 they will operate with backup batteries in case of a total loss of power.
Just another mention for the divers that recovered the bodies - diving at 50m on a recently sunken yacht with rope/cushions deckhead linings, materesses floating around in the dark by torchlight with no clear surface and everything trying to entrap you whilst trying to get a heavy dead body out of a ship was a really difficult thing to do.
@@tomriley5790 god bless the ppl who do that job, and keep on doing it. They’re a special breed of person.
Very interesting. As ex yacht crew for 15 years you are correct that it is pretty standard practise to put all tenders, toys etc away after the guests have either retired for the night or said they are not going to shore, and all the doors are shut and locked. It wasn't always, when I first started the tender was kept in the water, but neither did I need STCW95 or any knowledge to work on a yacht. Some of the rubbish I have read about it was a hot night so portholes etc were probably open is so ridiculous in a fully air conditioned yacht as to be not worthy of serious address. I pointed readers of the Daily Telegraph to your video of the waterspout throwing a 60 ft Catamaran across the harbour like a frisbee and the immediate knock down of the 43 meter yacht (I didn't see the footage seconds later of her righting herself as it wasn't in the original video), given some of the ill educated comments I read there. Anyone on that 43 meter would probably have been severely injured on a 90 degree manoeuvre of such violence, anyone on the deck would have been thrown with great force who knows where and would have been lucky to survive. The yacht designer is correct, the poor guests in their cabins with the room upside down, in the dark, disoriented and not knowing what to do, had no chance at all. Escape hatches are sometimes difficult to open at the best of times. I know when we used to practise, sometimes it would take two of us to open a hatch and that's in flat calm, often in port with all the lights on so you can see what you are doing.
I hope and expect the salvage to bring the yacht up exactly as she is found now, presumably by barge and flotation whilst pumping water out of her as she rises. It will indicate if anything was open. The main aft guest lounge doors on every big yacht I ever worked on could be locked in position; whether strong enough to withstand a massive ingress of water I don't know, I was chef not an engineer.
I suspect that out of this, once the facts are all established, it will be mandatory for a drill for all guests after arrival, as on passenger or cruise liners and as on aircraft before take off. Since working on yachts, if flying or staying at an hotel, I always want to know where the exits or stairs are.
Meanwhile for those poor people, I hope it was quick, I suspect even a few minutes would have been terrible knowing your last moments were here. RIP for those in peril on the sea.
I bet they recommend that boats like that with really tall mast , have to partially drop the keel even at anchor .
On a boat/ship heeled at 90° you will not reach the exit, I guarantee!
You would have to climb meters many meters of former beam on vertical walls while being bombard by debris.
And if you ever reach the next door: How to open it without this beast knocking you down?
With a heeling angle of 180^you might have a chance (if you are still alive).
But all exits will be meters under water with a pressure you can't fight against.
@@peterebel7899presumably you mean it’s fully stable completely inverted
and there should be alarms in all cabins indicating them to go the deck immediately.
@@mradventurer8104 This would not have helped in this case at all.
It is an (appropriately) “long video.” Thanks for your work aggregating all the relevant information. 👍
No apology needed for the length of this video which is very informative on what could have caused this incident to occur. I must admit that even as a land lubber, I was shocked to see how tall the mast of this vessel was but as with most 'accidents', there will have been multiple things that all lined up & which contributed to this tragedy occurring.
Yeah, this reminds me of the Vasa, which is on display in Stockholm. King had a too heavy boat built to show off and it , of course, sank
The “perfect storm.”
Great content under dire circumstances, thank you fascinating factual content a real eye opener.
@@TOMLINBISH It’s called the Swiss cheese model, when all the holes line up 🧀
Tallest mast - very shoal draft - huge gust = capsize.
Thank you for your non bias commentary. It is probably not easy for you (emotionally) since you are so involved in the industry. Cheers from 🇨🇦
@@danhei non bias??
we sailors love the sea, its more than just a job. And as such - ships are ships - we do all our job on board. And naturally we all went through tough situations. So in our mind we are with the crew, captain, guests ... good seamanship is not just experience. We work like pilots, with checklists in our heads, again and again, to keep everything safe as much as possible. Obviously, here went something wrong with the handling of such checklists. As it is reported, that this ship already had experienced in remote areas very tough weather conditions very safely. Naturally it pains to see this drama, a real tragedy, its a very ambivalence, as we know about the risks on (high) sea, and yet, by your passion and love, it pulls us out the harbours behind the horizons. We steadily have to sharpen our senses, as its the nature of a brain, to get lazy, and push us in to a comfort zone. I hardly can imagine, that we have here the reasons on the technical side. Yes, a big glass window should not exist on any ship (so my understanding), its a safety risk. Yet, an experienced crew would know about such a risk, and take relevant precautions. I suppose Human error is the main factor (as with most sea accidents nowadays).
@@profiskipinternational4402are they toughened or safety glass
Ex-boatbuilder here. We need more data, some of which may come once the hull is salvaged. At this point, I want to know how fast it went down, that would tell us something about where the water entered the hull. If the water entered from the deck, or somewhere on the topsides, it might fill the hull pretty quickly, but not as fast as it would if there were a large hole deep in the canoe body, perhaps near the lifting keel.
Every boatbuilder fears that a design, or construction, flaw will result in a catastrophe.The complexity of a massive lifting keel with the necessity to pass through the hull, worries me, as I'm sure it did, and does, to the builder of Bayesian.
I can envision a knockdown opening a hole at the point where the keel enters the hull, the air escaping through deck and superstructure openings, and the boat sinking very quickly.
All speculation, unfortunately lives were lost.
While easy to envision, it is unlikely to have been the case here. Centerboard ("lifting") keels are designed to fit tightly yet glide smoothly through the keel opening. Otherwise, they would sink as soon as they are launched. A knockdown should not loosen the centerboard so much as to allow water in. This incident looks to me as if the centerboard were raised, which raises the yacht's center of gravity, making a knockdown easier in stronger winds.
Reports saying that it sunk in 60 seconds.
Im guessing you have never built a boat with a lift / swing keel. They are rarely open to the interior, and at this size and built to code, it would never be open to the interior.
@@vernicethompson4825 agreed, it's just a builder's bad dream.
@@7divad37I'm very familiar with lifting keels, and never say never.
I agree that it's an unlikely problem, but given the speed it's supposed to have sunk, I have to consider an opening below the waterline.
As an ex super yacht builder in NZ and a boat designer I totally agree with the comments from the yacht designer.
This yacht had a very tall Alloy mast( not carbon) which would have only been 60%of the weight of the alloy rig. I imagine it was an ego driven decision to have a mast like this.
The comments from the builder CEO is just arse covering PN boatbuilding should now be under investigation along with the designers calculations.
He even has said that the yacht was unsinkable.
This is a unique tragic event and I feel for the boats crew and families effected by this founding. PN boatbuilders need to be scrutinized as to why a boat with the keel retracted should sink.
my father in law Duncan McCrae was a yacht designer from England whom moved his business to Whangheri in north island NZ in the mid 1990s . Cleverest bloke i ever knew 😁👍
"unsinkable". Where have I heard that before?
Number 1 question when boarding a yacht...... "is it unsinkable"? .... if so, run in the other direction!
@@cruisingal2same with a submarine I believe
I don’t watch mainstream news as they are renowned for misinterpretation or just plain error. Your summaries and professional insight based on a wealth of experience combined with caution and empathy is the gold standard. Thank you. Will keep monitoring reports.
I believe that this was sabotage and their was an explosive device deep in the hull....which would have blown apart a hole and the boat would have sunk within minutes and this is why there was no time to escape. The Mike Lynch had just gotten out of a lawsuit and he possibly had some furious people whom he owed money to....Just speculation.
We are not inslaved now.
Satanic banking system is over.
New banking system starts.
Ripple gold standard
🥳 🎉 🪅
Nice one - I too prefer my to replace my mainstream news content to one with zero editorial control or fact checking.
You live in Russia or China I guess.
i agree the newsreader said yesterday that even though 5 of the missing had been located and recovered she said that they were still trying to find the last victim that had not been found and that there was still hope even though it had said on the UA-cam channel video that the last body had been located but had not yet been recovered . and i am sure that a few decades ago they showed a testing tank with yachts with tall masts on them to test their buoyancy in different weather conditions .
Hopefully the crew and other survivors will give their experience of survival in this tragedy. Imagine the woman and her 1 yr old child surviving. Great job on covering this!
Sorry, I don’t think I’d take advice from this crew!
@@97B-p7g Yeah, the more I listen the more it seems strange.
The crew & captain has been grilled about this, but far as I’ve read, his main repeated statement has been, ‘we didn’t see it coming.’
A Stewardess who worked on it stated she’d been all around the world on it & it weathered several storms all over, fine. She too, is shocked it went down.
I’ve been saying between the captain & crew, there seems to have been some big failures.
To have sunk so quickly, the hatches had to be left open.
There’s also reports of the mast snapped off, which would definitely weight down the yacht to list & w/open hatches &/or doors, the water would certainly pour in easily.
The crew never awakened anyone w/life vests, as should have been done, too. They should have been better prepared ahead of time & when the storm hit, better prepared & able to alert everyone below & help get them out.
I’ve also stated the mast was too big for the yacht...b/c of ‘status’, over safety.
@@sonneversets3530 ''My mast is bigger than your mast''..... Arrogance?
@@Oakleaf700 Status symbol, no doubt.
There’s different reports as to whether it snapped, or not.
Eye witness from the captain who rescued the ppl on the life raft, said it did.
Witness from land said it appeared to ‘bend’, taking the Bayesian toward the water, before they couldn’t see it anymore.
Regardless, the weight had to be _major._
The investigation will tell...
Thanks Esysman for a very thorough explanation so far, not too long at all. Chris Freers input is very interesting, intelligent, and well founded. Please thank him for his contribution. I look forward to his further contributions.
Clearly there will be a full inquest but the initial observations are very much welcomed.
We just hope they recover the body of the final victim soon.
Good work and please keep it up
Colin & Julie, S/V Skoolie Too, UK
This is the best summary of what could have happened. Better than any new media. Well done. Keep up the great work.
When a helicopter ditches in water it immediately turns over 180 degrees due to the engine and rotor weight being at the top of the craft. Rescue helicopter crews train in simulations in pools how to get out of an overturned craft in the dark by knowing what the craft feels like in an upturned situation. Passengers and crew on a yacht do not do this sort of training, it would be impractical, especially for the passengers to undergo such training, but crews should take note of what's on the ceilings and try to identify by feel what it might be like in such a situation. It could save their lives and potentially the lives of passengers under their guidance. When left is right and up is down and it is dark is a terrifying thought. My heart goes out to the families of the victims of the Bayesian.
Actually when fire fighting training, you are in (double decker portacabins in my experience), in full respiratory gear, you have to go into the dark searching for obstacles/bodies by feel with your back up team. You have to go through openings, up stairs, and when you get to the fire the heat is pretty intense. You have to be aware of where you are if possible so you can withdraw if you cannot put the fire out. I suspect you are right, even for crew that train often, disorientation that happened so fast was too much for the poor guests as no crew could have got to them given the violence of the storm and forces on the yacht
they make you swim on your back submerged under pressure in an escape your sinuses fill up to your eyeballs it's great !
Imagine inviting a rich banker and his wife on a cruise, but mentioning that they have to undergo a nightmarish training session beforehand😂 So sad that they didn't realise what a dangerous situation they were putting themselves into. I hate to say it but I blame the owner, ultimately their safety was his responsibility
@@CharlesWhite-j4f Freak accidents happen.
But the crew all jumped clear, the question posed is did they alert the passengers below?
Thank you for this comprehensive discussion with what is known so far. It's terribly bad luck for those on board, and I expect with the vessel at 90° over, the cabin doors on the downward side would be above the occupiers head and probably with water rushing in before the people had time to gather their senses. I do hope they can raise the vessel and reconstruct the incident so that valuable lessons can be learnt. Cheers.
I did years of sailing, and you end up with lot of respect for the power/force of the wind.
And from the hundreds of yachts that I have looked at, the mast on this vessel was too long.
The leverage it provides is enormous if you have high wind loadings.
The survivor's will provide the answers to what happened.
Ego scrambles lots of brains.
Well said. Ego scrambles lots of brains! “Pride goes before destruction, a haughty spirit before a fall.” Proverbs 16:18
The pressure on the mast would be at least ten times greater with the sails up and as you would expect the mast did not in fact break.
@@sanelatutaris15 why religion is pure fantasy and imaginary as ghosts and the like! Nothing but nature on show here!
@@David-if9vi I wondered about that, too….
i have done a little sailing, but a load of sailboat model making- not saying its worth much, but its same principles on smaller scale, and I thought similar to you.
Thank you for the report on this tragedy. I appreciate your respect for the souls lost and families, as well, as the crew.
Thank you for your sensitive analysis of this terrible tragedy. I was once crewing on a very small passenger boat (in daylight) where the possibility of abandoning ship arose. We’d taken the decision to leave the passengers at the destination and arranged land transport for their return and were bringing the boat back to port. Years later I still have vivid memories of the sea conditions. The crew and passengers of the Bayesian have suffered the most terrifying experience imaginable. It might help if MSM and others waited for an official enquiry before apportioning blame.
Reminds me of the loss of the Fantome. Glad you and the passengers were safe.
When news of this tragedy first surfaced, I mentioned to one of my colleagues that I thought the large glass sliding doors, from Aft deck to Saloon would have had a large bearing on the down-flooding and resultant catastrophe. I would think that shell doors and swim platforms would have to be closed for security, even at MARSEC level 1.
Whilst I was master on a commercial vessel in Sydney, Australia, during a microburst event, the racing yacht ‘Wild Oats X’ - whilst secured to the dock, was hit by a gust that heeled her over to approximately 60 degrees (With her 4.6m draught!). Her distance from my vessel was approximately 100 metres and shortly thereafter, she (momentarily) COMPLETELY DISAPPEARED in the associated rainstorm, so I would presume that the reason “The lights went out” (As shown on the CCTV clip) could possibly have been from the heavy rainfall, not the foundering.
Tornadoes have been proven (By Doppler RADAR) to regularly have the highest recorded wind speeds on Earth (Stronger than the most powerful Cat 5 TRS!) Up to
500km/h!
The strongest recorded wind gust in a cyclone (407.164 km/h - Cyclone Olivia April 10th 1996) would have paled in comparison…
Downflooding would definitely have been the deal-breaker.
OK good , an experienced Skipper. Michael, look back at the previous video (from eSyman) at the AIS view of the anchorage. Run it at .25 speed and see if you can explain what happened from the blast of wind that up-anchored Bayesian & Sir RBP (at 01.24 UTC) to 02.05 where Sir RBP anchor resets, and Bayesian appears to be pointing SSE and stationary. it remains in this position until the AIS signal is lost at 03.07. Is there an explanation other than it's (accidentally!!) anchored by its stern for that hour?
@@micheldawes1 That was my exact thought…I’ve been in storms where visibility was under 100m.
And there was the 2017 hurricane, Irma, which had a recorded wind gust and measured over the Island of St Barths at +/- 450 km/h before the wind machine exploded.
Those large, glass sliding doors to the Saloon have been on my mind from the start. Could a passenger have decided to take a look on deck during the night and not secure those doors? If the Bayesian heeled to 90 degrees with those doors open, that would certainly quickly introduce a lot of water into the hull. So far, the talk of the crew leaving one or more hatches open is just that--talk. I've not seen any reports from the divers indicating that an open hatch has been found. I hope the Bayesian can be salvaged and investigators can then get a good look to determine what likely sank her.
I also completely agree with you that the "disappearance" of the Bayesian that appears in the land-based CCTV footage is down to visibility with either increasing rain, the Bayesian drifting further out as it dragged its anchor, or both.
The lights went out bc it was a directed energy weapon which hit it.
While Chris Freer is a yacht designer and everything he says about righting moment in yachts speaks sense, this channel and Chris focus on a keel setup said to be a ballast bulb of some 200T at the base of the lifting keel. This is incorrect. Bayesian, formerly Salute is well photographed on the hard prior to launching. As per the designer Ron Holland, Perini and photo evidence, the keel design contains the essential righting moment within a long relatively shallow draft (4.05m) stub keel. The keel "extension" rotates down in plate form to 9.83m draft. No possibility of a 200T bulb. The real issue is why Bayesian took on so much water in so little time. Divers report she lies on her starboard side and is intact. They had no easy points of access, which suggests the large lazarette / garage transom door was closed as was the port stern quarter door used as an access ramp for guests. Many an ocean racing yacht has lost its keel, turned turtle and not sunk quickly. Drum in the Fastnet was towed back to shore and refitted for the Whitbread. Numerous Vendee Globe sailors have lost keels, some sailed back to shore, others were rescued from their yachts that were still floating. Where I agree with Chris Freer, is that modern super yacht design is possibly lacking some important safety aspects. This yacht should have been able to roll on her side pinned down by wind and not sink so quickly. That is what most ocean yachts are designed to do. With hatches closed, most ocean yachts have a near central companion way that floats above the water line when they're pinned down on their side. If multiple companion ways on super yachts are off centre and closer to the gunwale, this may be the Archiles heel as well as the large windows in the superstructure. This is the question that needs answering as Perini also says there are mandatory watertight bulkheads.
So what are you saying? that the doors were left open for large amounts of water to ingress?
@@antc5010 have you seen the reaction of the builder? This ship wasn't designed to be able to roll on its side. 63 degrees of heel would already be critical according to the builder.
@@spookie3000 That’s a big problem!
If it can’t roll on it’s side as a sailing yacht it’s a recipe for disaster!
You cant access the guest accomodation from the Laz or stern.
I was wondering if some places like the engine room acted as bulk heads but the doors were left open or didn't swing shut because of the heeling over when someone left that area. Then the boat was swamped and down it went.
In order for Bayesian to have sunk as quickly as she did it seems clear that she must have flooded rapidly. Once recovery operations are complete, it will be important for the investigation of the incident to establish the status of all openings, open or closed.
That will largely be determined by the insurance companies dive team before she is raised.
+1, If it was fully knocked down with hatches/doors open the flow rate into a boat could be too fast to move against. Only 6" of fast flowing water is enough to knock an adult off their feet and 12" can sweep away cars.
@@ColinWattersand that in total darkness and the boat listing
@@ColinWattersYes, this is likely why they couldn't get out
Obviously they were all/mostly open. Divers report already stated they were able to access the interior thru open portals.
Not a sailor. We're ranchers in an area prone to great storms. We have to be on watch 24/7. When WX reports or radar shows storms coming, we get the stock in, the outbuildings closed up and the house battened down. We do this before the storm hits. Wouldn't sailors do the same?
I think rich people partying can get complacent. Then crew around rich people partying get complacent.
@@gingerjessyIt's pretty obvious that this crew got
complacent. Owners probably thought they could trust the captain the same way we trust the pilot when we fly
@@gingerjessy best comment
It's not like things like this happen there often and can blow up and dissappear relatively quickly
@@susanwhite7474how do you know? Where can I read this information?
Thank you so much for the information on this platform. I am a former Naval officer and sea sailing instructor in the Netherlands. From the stability lessons at the Naval Academy I remember some insights. Your referral to the builder claiming the vessel could heel up to 73 degrees keel up drew my attention. Just 73 degrees? I cannot imagine that being sufficient for any type of sailing yacht. And I seriously doubt that number meets the CE A norm, although I have not checked it. One of the lessons learned could be compulsory publication of the stability curves for any type of yacht they put on the market. Normally, in my experience, that information is handled as if it were a national secret…
73 degrees refers to "CB up" condition.
88 degrees when CB is down
@@captainjimolchs even so that's a very poor point of vanishing stability IMHO, you would expect a sailing yacht to right itself from a knock down.
@@TimPerskie My reading was that down was 73-88; up was 120. But where it was set is to be determined. A curious question, considering that all watch officers survived. Also to be revealed is the status of various hull and bulkhead openings. At this time, I anxiously await the final report. And I also wonder why others seemed so much more aware of weather forecasts.
--Unfamiliar with this vessel, but I would to tend to keep the CB down, except to reduce draft. Passenger comfort?; better ways exist. Wrapping the chain?; Let the watch handle it.
Thank you. Your knowledge and insight is more informative than the news reports.
Excellent analysis from the yacht designer. If you look at a normal sailing vessels there is very little superstructure above deck level so the centre of gravity is much lower. Sacrificing seaworthiness for "glamour", maybe o.k most of the time BUT.....
Blaming the crew at this point in time is disgusting IMO.
A yacht designer. Using "the" implies he was associated with this particular yacht.
there are TONS of ballast low in the hull remember
Flat deck Yatchs are either racer inspired or inspired by historic sailing vessels.
But many Yatchs old and modern have raised superstructures .. but nothing compared to motor Yatchs and cruise liners.
They are heavily ballasted.. even with the keel up. They may also use pumped water ballast tanks... Even explorer Yatchs like Beowolf ..use this system.
the crew, or rather the captain, is 100% at fault. Inexperienced clown.
so.....the captain or crew had no warning, tornados were comming??!!
This happened at about 4 o'clock in the morning... night, sudden extreme weather... people sleeping... thankfully most people survived.
Great analysis. It is getting clearer. People seem to sacrifice safety for bragging rights. Why else would someone own one.
Sure, but that should never be designed by a naval architect. The poor souls lost and the traumatized survivors, while they may be judged and damned as extremely braggadocios for pathetic reasons, were, nevertheless, not the experts who should never have designed this death trap.
Thank you so much for this particular video! The designer, Chris Freer, clearly knows what he is talking about and presents a detailed and accurate description of this vessel and what likely happened. My first reaction was how unusual this accident must be, since modern sailing yachts should be designed to be stable. But the tall mast gave me a clue that this yacht must have a very high center of gravity, resulting in sensitivity to easy heeling. The centerboard ("lifting keel") must have been up, because that would be a good reason for the yacht being unable to right itself after heeling so sharply. The explanation about the lounge sliding doors also makes sense as a way for water to penetrate the cabin once the yacht had heeled so far over. This struck me as a truly tragic accident, as I have experience on sailboats, and I have been following coverage of the recovery closely. Thank you again for your videos.
"I have experience on sailboats". But I wonder then why you and many other in the comments - including Chris Frere- don't understand the fundamental difference between a keel and a centreboard. A keel is looking for the stability of a boat, a centreboard not. The centreboard optimises the performance of a boat when going upwind. There are photos of BAYESIAN prior to her first launching which show definitiv that there is no bulbkeel coming in and out but a plate- a centreboard.
Nevertheless- perhaps a centreboard down would have given a momentarily, additional stability against sudden heeling.
Tall mast = major design fault avoidable by a 10 year child. Very sad. Just to be able to show off "mast length". Would even have looked much better as a schooner with two masts. Neither a proper sailing boat nor a proper gin-palace, an awkward and useless boat, can't even get into a harbour easily. A cursed boat, sadly. When anyone invites me on a boat my response is always "no thanks, I'm a landlubber". Last night in my bed in my cosy cottage in England there was a storm outside. The solid building didn't move one inch, my window just rattled slightly. I said a prayer for all those poor souls who perish at sea. Some heroic people have to do that as a job, to keep world trade moving. I pity the guests, just there to please an important client, they received an invitation they couldn't refuse
@@volkerkonig9376 I'm a sailor & amateur boat designer/builder who has designed/built 3 successful small sharpies (by eye, with zero failures) up to 21' 6"...in which the crew IS the ballast. I'm sure Chris Freer knows the difference between a keel & a centerboard. Bayesian has a retracting centerboard & a shallow keel. The centerboard is heavy but was retracted, so didn't provide much righting arm. The keel contains ballast but is shallow, so doesn't provide much righting arm. Then there is the windage of the mast...& what a waterspout does...& I've seen waterspouts (at least 15 of them) from the deck of USCGC Eagle. Bayesian might have recovered if her centerboard was down, but apparently board down isn't SOP at anchor, & that mast & those sliding doors (plus whatever else may have been left open) worked against her. -Angelika's Husband
@@volkerkonig9376 It seems from your comment that you do not understand the difference between a keel and a centerboard. A centerboard is a movable keel, that can be raised and lowered. A keel is a general term for the bottom centerline of a boat from which the ribs are built up. A lifting keel is either a new term or a term used by those who don't know what a centerboard is. Attaching a ballast to the bottom of a centerboard is apparently what makes it a "lifting keel," but to me it's just a ballasted centerboard. I hope this helps.
@@CharlesWhite-j4f I agree that it's sad! The only apparent reason for the oddly tall mast seems to have been vanity, because it makes the boat top heavy and therefore easy to knock down, especially when the keel is raised and cannot counteract it. Thank you for your response.
Thank you for being so professional conveying the message. Also, I appreciate you respect for the people that die in the accident. Best!!
This was the Herald of Free Enterprise of yachts. No wonder the manufactures are blaming the crew. They would be well advised to keep quiet until after the enquiry.
Not really. The Herald of Free Enterprise was sunk through crew negligence.
I think his remarks were in his interest
@@byteme9718That was one of the many reasons.
@@Trevor_Austin True but that was the root cause.
Yacht manufacturer: "Yes sir Mr Trillionaire. We will build you a boat with a thousand foot mast that will be as stable as a Rolls Royce and Guaranteed unsinkable"
I'm trying to visualize the movement of the yacht in those wind conditions. Let's say it was partially, or fully, knocked down, but also being blown backwards, and/or swinging violently on the anchor, with the forward hull even slightly lifted by 200 kph wind pressing on hull and tall mast. The reverse slanting stern would become one giant water scoop. (worse if the rear garage door was open) Angela Bacares has made a statement that carries a lot of weight here. She was awoken by an unusual "tilt," and went topside to check things out. (she does after all own the boat, at least it's registered in her name) Soon after, she found herself walking through broken glass and received injuries from this. Broken glass would likely come from broken salon doors or salon windows. That made me think of the idea that Bayesian was moving backwards, stern somewhat down from mast and hull windage, and scooping water into the salon up and over the stern, crashing through those doors. Broken glass in the salon has to show the violence of the motion, even if temporary, and just how high the water had reached in the knockdown. The 6 guests that survived, must surely have already been on deck at the time of the incident, along with all the crew. The jolting tilt that alarmed Angela Bacares would have most likely been felt by all the crew (keen to a boat's normal movements at anchor), causing them to take action in response to a storm and head topside. Likely some of the guests were also awoken and went topside as well, a normal response on a boat, where it made it possible for them to survive such a rapid flooding. Now, another possibility, some of the crew and/or guests were still awake, yes even at 4AM, as this was a huge celebration of a massive financial victory, partying all night? Hot night, drunken guests, usually ends up with someone wanting to go swimming, so the aft garage door opened to accommodate? There are SO many possible scenarios, but a lowered aft garage door, or port tender door, for whatever reason, with that kind of boat movement, would set up such a freak occurrence. What's amazing to me, is how all those that survived being thrown in the water, ended up in just one life-raft? Cudos to the crew for rounding up the survivors, 15 out of 16 is pretty impressive, on a dark and windy night.
It is very unlikely that in these weather conditions any guests would have wanted to swim however drunk they might have been or not.
@@domcp711 - Drunks wanting to swim during an approaching storm - count me in.
I hadn't seen Angela Bacares account, but this would fit with the yacht somehow sitting stern to the weather...
how do you conclude it must be going backwards because she steps in glass? your theory is very shaky if that's all it stands on. We have experience from a crew member in the video you just watched that worked multiple similar ships and he says those doors would slide open and break all the time when under sail/tilt.
Because of the shape of the hull it's much more likely the ship's bow is pointed in to the weather, I am also pretty sure those doors are so heavy so that they can hold any imaginable wave because it is an obvious point of failure. And i know from speaking to yacht engineers that the regulations become more and more strict the farther away you are from the waterline. So you can start to see how heavy those doors are, they can easily destroy themselves if the mast is parallel to the water it falls straight down.
With the Ship completely on it's side and the door open it's done real quick.
But the whole absolutely ginormous lifting keels scares the crap out of me to be honest, it's super obvious you shouldn't build a ship this big if you need to reinvent the wheel multiple times just to fit in harbors. You want to go on to the ocean with a bunch of design elements all the engineers told you not to do, but you just gave them more money and made them do it anyway? At the end of the day we sailed the oceans for hundreds of years with a bunch of different designs but they always started with the keel and built a ship around it. You can start somewhere else, but it sure works well the old way.
@@pimvanduijne I agree that the bow would likely point into the wind, I would say definitely even, how could it not? Then if you have a strong force coming down on the bow and the anker rope would pull it down at that point, the stern would lift and suddenly the vessel is unstable and tips. I only have experience with small boats, but but all the weight on the bow and it becomes pretty wobbly, regardless of size. And, it would be nobody's fault either. Time will hopefully tell.
Great analysis! Your videos are top-notch!
Thank you for a sensible explanation I worked on super yachts
with ElectroMed from Gibraltar in the 80's living on my own 12 metre boat. Well done to the recovery team in Comissario Montabano area..
Very informative. I have always wondered about the unusual height of the masts on many of these luxury sailing yachts. Now I know why they are so ridiculously high. Vanity!
Mr Freer's comments are 100% spot on. The comments from the CEO are just disgusting cya as usual, better if he just said we will support the investigating authorities of the tragedy in every manner possible.
No point in wasting time - the captain fucked up. Had no experience of mediterranean storms (its not the sort of thing you forget) and he was obviously asleep. There was plenty of time to shut the doors or get everyone out. Shutting the hatches would have been enough.
The CEO is trying to protect his company and the jobs of the people working in it. Besides the questions he has been asking are not unreasonable
Well that depends. He could have designed an amazingly safe boat. But if a boat is out in a sudden storm with and it's pushed nearly over by a wave or water enters the vessel through a bathing platform or tender door or whatever that shouldn't be open, or if water swamps the boat and ingresses into through bulk head doors which shouldn't be open then the boat will sink. Imagine for example if the boat was forced sideways into a swell and water entered a bathing platform for example. That isn't to say he's off the hook, or doesn't have questions to answer, but crew error could also be the cause - going out in bad weather, not preparing properly for passage, lax safety, lax emergency drills, inadequate training / certification, kowtowing to unreasonable demands by passengers / owner that compromise safety. There are a lot of potential errors that have nothing to do with the boat per se but who was operating it.
Yes, he has come out fighting. No point to it, just no integrity.
@@LiveFromLondon2it depends on the watch
Some facts. Thank you. As a retired AF pilot, I can say this event is not very different from that of aviation accidents. In the absence of facts, we blame. Those who fear they may be accountable, defend. Along the way, we rage, we mourn, we investigate, we litigate, we legislate.
In end, all I can think about is what those poor people went through. And what those unfortunate 7 endured.
@@jk87876 Incredible comment. 💕
Clearly the designer and builder are getting their "blame" game together already . . sadly. Rather than wait for conclusive evidence which will surely come. My guess is that there will be fault on all sides to a lesser or greater degree but it's very easy to blame the crew for not acting correctly, or not fast enough, to an event which surely would have been well beyond their comprehension or training. I was at sea for over 20 years and would never have believed that a vessel of this size could be overwhelmed at anchor. It reminds of the sinking of the Flag Theofano which was overwhelmed in the eastern approaches to the Solent in January 1990.
The Bayesian tragedy brought me to this channel, and I've quickly come to appreciate the well-researched, balanced, and respectful coverage you bring. Thank you, sir, for your fine work. What ever happened to sink the Bayesian, I expect we'll discover that several, low-probability events unfortunately combined there. It's incredible to me that the Italian Sea Group would dare make any public comments placing blame elsewhere before anything is really known about what sent the Bayesian down. Shame on them.
Why? The sinking of this yacht seriously threatens their business and from divers' reports, their was crew negligence
@@susanwhite7474Divers' reports? Any of them knowledgeable in incident analysis? Or yacht design?
My point is that we really just don't know what transpired to cause the Bayesian to go down so quickly. Until we do, I can't see how anything can be said to be the most likely cause. Maybe the crew was at fault, but maybe something failed or a peculiarity of the Bayesian's design, loadout or manufacture caused a sudden ingress of water. Maybe the weather produced a one-in-a-million combination of wind and rough seas that no craft that size could have survived. A thorough investigation is needed before making definitive statements about the cause.
@@susanwhite7474 more than negligent, its corporate manslaughter.
@@Fuegoturbo it was a typical mediterranean summer storm, typified by the downburst nature of them. It was forecast. It was expected. And the captain or person in charge should have shut all the windows. Batten down the hatches, as they say. Then everything would have been fine.
Another expert of this particular boat, said in the bad weather, the captain and crew needed to batton the hatches, lift anchor, lower the keel and sail into the wind. Key words BATTON THE HATCHES in a storm (everybody knows that , it’s inexcusable) , start engines, and position the boat.
I am a first mate and sail , can dock a 36’ sailboat, and have been in a bad storm, with 13’ waves going over our boat and water spouts beside us, it was terrifying. We tied down and road into the waves. And then 5 minutes later it was calmer.
In my opinion, Mr. Lynch’s sea worthy yacht size, absolutely could have been safe in this storm, if handled properly ( Palermo had 19 water spouts in that area Sunday night)
@@97B-p7g how does a boat with the size mast this had, 275 feet I think, have keel up w no one on watch? Seems inviting rolling.
@@97B-p7g rode?
Actually, you don't want to raise the anchor and go navigating about in a ferocious storm at night (even with a modern GPS chart plotter), especially if in a rather closed anchorage (not the case with "Bayesian"). Rather, you turn on the engine(s) and power forward into the wind to relieve the stress on the anchor to prevent dragging. I did this a number of times on my boat. Steering under power can also reduce swinging if the rudder is in the propeller stream.
Most storms last a short time and in half an hour it's over. Different if a massive front or system hits, then escape to the open sea may be preferable, but such things are predictable (Mistral and Bura?).
batten
Which position do you take in a waterspout though?
There is a tradition or unwritten rule in the Royal Air Force that you never blame dead crewmen with out compelling and complete evidence.
I can see that this is bad publicity for the builders but going to sea can never be 100% safe. This was a very rare and very extreme weather event that over took the Bayesian very quickly.
I have not heard of a vessel being involved in a waterspout incident and I have only seen them 2 or 3 times and always during the daytime.
I do know the recommended procedures.
I think the company by blaming the crew is putting their interests first.
strange that the only crewmen dead is the chef
Was he a crew member or a working guest?
@@riccardo5541
A Palermo sailor said it was just a normal 'tempest' and in that area they appear every end of August. Extreme event yes, but not uncommon. Quite the opposite.
@@riccardo5541 A chef is so busy all day long, he was probably hard and fast asleep, but someone in the crew should have awakened him as there were most likely a few others in the crew quarters that did survive. Unless he went to try and alert the others that didn't survive.
Yes, the CYA is profoundly disgusting!
Thanks eSysman for the update video on this VERY SAD sinking....l was on a large sailing boat back in about 1965 in Tampa Bay Florida.....
An saw two huge side by side WATER SPOUTS TORNADOES hit two big fishing it was terrible.......
Old F-4 pilot Shoe🇺🇸
God bless you sir, I am subscribing to your channel - I am an aviation enthusiast and would love any aviation content you might upload. Ron Rogers, a retired United Air Lines pilot, has a particularly good aviation related channel.
@@theleastofpilgrims3379 Thank you Sir....But i am in my 80's and don't have a channel...
@@steveshoemaker6347 There are several aviation youtubers who interview pilots such as yourself, as your stories are inspirational to a lot of this. By the way I was taught how to use computers and the Internet by my late grandfather, memory eternal, who was an avionics engineer who worked on various projects, one notable example being the Beach Starship, which I’ve always loved, sadly only 15 survived Raytheon’s attempted extermination of the type, but at any rate, he was a WWII veteran who would have celebrated his 100th birthday this January.
@@theleastofpilgrims3379 Well i am in my 80's now i have lost all of my family on both sides....Wife and kids all gone for one reason or another....Sad but we carry on waiting in line for our turn....Blessing to you my friend.....
Shoe🇺🇸
@@steveshoemaker6347 God bless you sir!
Seems like yacht makers are very keen to add holes to the hull in the form of retractable doors. Yes, they are handy, but if there's an emergency situation, you've suddenly got a gaping hole that needs to be closed. And those "holes" are very close to the waterline.
99.9999999% of the time it’s not an issue. Risk can never be entirely eliminated, only managed.
But the hull doors open onto spaces that are isolated from the rest of the vessel by watertight bulkheads.
@@martinsaunders2942 Then why the danger if they are left open?
Excellent video. Well done. Great detail.
OK one important point here: High wind/Squall vs Tornado/Water Spout. I don't believe there is an established tornado procedure other than "see and avoid". The outcome of hitting a tornado is not and can not be predicted other than it won't end well. Steer toward it? Yeah ..... as good of an idea as any at that point. But the velocity, compactness and total wind change of this event cannot be planned for. All bets are OFF. It does need to be determined if a water spout was in fact involved.
Shorter mast / deeper ballast would be the correct planning. This design is, IMHO intrinsically dangerous.
Good comments by the yacht designer. A sloop rig on a hull this length looks ridiculous and is ridiculous. I note that Bayesian (formerly Salute) was the only 56 metre Perini Navi given a sloop rig; all the rest, I believe, were ketch rigged. I have heard rumour that Bayesian was denied insurance to cross the Atlantic because of the sloop rig and the resulting silly mast but that might not be correct. Additional specific design failures outlined on these videos are (i) keel pin too noisy to allow keel down when anchored; and (ii) main cabin glass doors prone to failure and opening when the yacht heeled. More generally, the design trade-offs required to make a yacht imitate a luxury hotel seem to have led to a disastrous failure.
Perseus 3 is a 60m Perini sloop. There are a couple of comparable Alloy/Dubois sloops like Kokomo and Red Dragon as well. Additionally, there is M5 (Mirabelle V), Aglaia, and Ngoni but all of these boats have carbon fiber masts.
Not only does such a tall mast look ridiculous, it raises the centers of gravity and of buoyancy. A deep keel is needed to counteract the effects of the mast height when the boat heels to keep it from capsizing. The design is comparable to 19th century clipper ships, which had many tall masts and narrow beams, for speed, but deep keels to keep them stable.
I can’t get past those swim and tender platforms being open to the sea. Especially when storming. Hatches and water tight doors aren’t glamorous but a boat is a boat.
@@Thitithen_of_Wome Thanks for the additional information - very helpful.
@@jacky3580 It sounds very unlikely that they had been left open but then this whole event seems hard to understand.
"The Bayesian was built in 2008 with David Hutchinson, captain of its sister ship Rosehearty, telling Boat International 'she was bulletproof'. He told the specialist publication: 'We've been to Antarctica and Chile, and we've had her in 70knots of wind ' but they had never been put in a situation that he felt was unmanageable".
True to the laws of statistics however, what are the odds of it sinking within sight of land? You have to assume a lot of priors for that to happen.
@@deusvult2559
Why were no crew members monitoring the maritime weather especially with all the current available technology? How did the crew manage to save themselves and not the chef and missing guests? Why was there no emergency lighting to counter the darkness? Such a sad tragedy.
@@deusvult2559
...and the Titanic was "Unsinkable!"😬
@@mottawa1 Pure speculation but perhaps the crew was aware of some impending weather, thus up and about in anticipation. Maybe in the darkness it was the waterspout (tornado) that caught them off guard.
Sounds the same as the Titanic Olympic.
Satanic banking system is over.
Gold backed currencys are coming back now.
🥳 🎉 🪅
Man I thought at 110 foot mast was high, but 246 feet that is crazy high.
Yes, especially for such a short and beamy vessel. I was amazed at the height of the mast too, thinking it seemed quite top heavy.
USCGC Eagle's fore & main masts are 150' from waterline to truck, but Eagle is 295' long & well-ballasted internally with a relatively deep hull. I still didn't like being surrounded by waterspouts in her!
Thank you for again providing such an unbiased, informative glimpse into the possibilities of what could have caused this tragedy. I always appreciate your approach to all topics you cover. You never fail to provide quality information that isn’t influenced by anything other than facts and interpretation based on your wealth of knowledge from personal experience and education as a yachting professional. Your coverage of this tragedy has been cited on some large worldwide news sources. I know this isn’t the first time, but clearly your work has been noticed and respected! Congratulations, and I wish you continued success.
An excellent commentary. For those who made it onto the deck, probably in little more than a T shirt and shorts, in darkness and rain driven by 70kt winds it would have been terrifying. Once the heel angle got to 30 degrees or so it would have been impossible to stand and if you happened to be on the low side you'd likely simply fall off into the water with the boat towering above you and if you were on the high side you'd fall across the boat into whatever stood in your path.
The only positive factor is that the water was warm, that was a small blessing
You can stand at 30 degrees, but you would use your hands to hang on.
Loss of life at sea is always tragic and this is extraordinary. As always a good, informative video and handled like the pro that you are.
This has been a traumatic event for the entire yachting community and most likely for you personally having to delve into the details as you always do.
All the best to everybody involved.
The designer may very well be correct. (In my opinion the keel was up, the anchor lost grip, the boat swung and the extreme wind needed only the mast laying the boat sideways, and then like a bathtub open for water.)
the wind was not extreme. there was no waterspout, it was a deluge, a downburst. Totally normal in the med.
@@LiveFromLondon2 Sure
@@LiveFromLondon2 How could a deluge sink it?
How could the anchor be down in 50meters of water
Did the wind drag it into deep water ?@heatherpalmer
Frere's summation is exactly what mine was upon first hearing this. I immediately said "if it had a lifted keel and mast-furled mainsail, it stood no chance in that situation.
It does not have a mast furling main sail it has a boom furling mainsail. But your theory makes no sense because if it was slab reefing mainsail the weight would be in the same place.
One of the most common phrases in the world.. "Batten down the hatches" a storm is approaching.
According to some of the specs on Bayesian that I saw it was ABS classed. I would be shocked if it could pass those inspections if it had such a dangerous flaw - the salon doors dropping opening uncommanded with heavy listing.
Given the heat at the time, I would not assume (as I’ve read in some reports) that portholes or doors were left open for cooling. That’s a ludicrous idea for a modern luxury yacht with air conditioning.
Re open doors/portholes.... Ludicrous just like the "sloped roof comment by the SS comment"
As it pertains to aerodynamics wind forces, it’s important to make note that the force wind produces is equal to the square of the velocity. Example, when the wind increases from 25 to 50 knots, the force it produces is 4 times greater at 50 knots than the force it exhibited at 25 knots.
Thank you - that underscores the folly of the "tallest mast in the world." Too much windage
@@susanwhite7474 Until watching this video I did not fully appreciate how the mast and furled sails still create issues with the center of gravity and crosswinds.
@@henrynovell8752 Same as driving a car. When you double the speed the car has 4 times the kinetic energy.
(Kinetic energy equation: E= 1/2 MV^2)
@@susanwhite7474 So you're questioning the knowledge & integrity of Ron Holland, the A.B.S. and the M.C;A.?
Now run those figures with "air" that's loaded with an unusual amount of water. Tons of extra water mass. You know: A waterspout!
This video wasn’t long at all👍🏼
Thanks so much for you knowledge!
The Bayesian is unable to right herself if she is fully knocked down further than 74 or 89 degrees respectively. The manufacturer and the physics have confirmed same. From there she will sink in a matter of minutes-stern first, bow last. The guests quarters were in there aft, the crew quarters forward.
Not being able to get back from 90 degrees... Wow.
The guest cabins are central with the mast. The mast passes through the guest corridor and the engine room and garage are aft.
I know right?! I've got a 40 ft sail boat that can go to 150. Anything after that hold your breath and it'll right herself in a minute or two with wave action. (All things being equal)
What a piece of junk. I'd never sail on something so delicate.
Those are really low numbers for limit of vanishing stability....
Thank you so much for keeping us up to date with current input from others and reports from the salvage
2:35 "The boat sank because it took on water". That's what I suspected!
yes, it sank because it was flooded after taking on water and what a revelation that is.
It sank because it ceased floating
This makes perfect sense. On what being said. The front sliding door needs to be engineered. Yet. The owners need to drop the ego and go with what is practical. Thanks.
Water rushing in so fast you cannot move against it in total darkness and everthing at 90° to normal as woken from sleep gives no chance to escape!
Thanks for providing more detailed information on this tragedy. I respect your careful and knowledgeable explanations. I'll follow your suggested link near the end of your video.
Shipyard pointing fingers at the crew..... The shipyard should've waited for the MAIB report before making any allegations. That was a poor PR decision. Of course they should make a statement but certainly not any allegations at such a premature stage into the investigation.
First, my heart goes to the bereaved families... I hope yacht builders will always put safety above all and not looks or features. I think one of the reasons they say semi-custom yacht is that some construction designs cannot be changed or removed because of safety issues. I think the yacht industry has many cases to learn to prevent such unfortunate accidents.
The "yacht industry" has been going for thousands of years. Surprising that the most basic errors can still be made, like Number One: "No openings or holes in the hull" and Two: "Don't make it top-heavy".
Thank you for providing a thoughtful and well researched reporting of this tragic freak event. The scenario presented by Freer makes perfect sense, in which case the crew had little time to react and most of the passengers no chance to get out. Unfortunately there will be arm-chair quarterbacking for months until a final report is made by the responsible investigative authorities.
the captain has already fucked himself by saying they werent expecting the storm. thats it game over.
But most passengers did get out.
Excellent overview by Chris. Very easy to understand and hugely helpful. When things go wrong they go wrong fast. Thanks again.
This should be required on every blue water boat no matter the size as a safety standard: there should be (per cabin per bunk) a scuba tank, mask and fins. So if it’s a king bed in the cabin: 2 air tanks, 2 masks, 2 sets of fins. Mike Lynch, his daughter, his guests, his crew could have all been alive today had they had what I think should have been common practice by now. Big sailer like the Bayesian, there would be plenty of room to implement my idea.
You consistently do a fine job. I appreciate all that I gain from your episodes.
Not only was this a turbulent squall, reports are Bayesian was struck by the waterspout ...a marine tornado of high and twisting winds....while a anchor before dawn. This was not a ship and crew sailing in a storm with precautions taken, but anchored. Likely with hatches and skylights open to enjoy the night breezes. Notably all the apparent casualties were passengers except for the cook.
And if the 240-ft-plus mast was snapped-off, the weight of the mast, the fouled rigging and the unbroken mast stays might have held it to the deck weighing one side down and preventing Bayesian from returning to an upright position allowing even more water to enter.
Wrong place, wrong time.
Plus, the keel was lifted because they were at anchor.
No -----> on the snapped mast keeping it from correcting, but rather the "righting momentum" of the vessel would have been instantly corrected when the top of the mast touched the water and the hull would have corrected itself within seconds. It's a physics thing. However, if one of those doors were left opened, especially the side door and the ship heeled over in that storm towards the side where the side door was opened, it would have scooped enough water into the vessel to a point that, once it corrected itself, the weight of the flooding at that time would have caused the vessel to sit lower than the bottom of the door and therefore continue to take on a massive amount of water. Such water would have short circuited any electrical and electronics required to close that door, therefore allowing the flooding to occur at a high rate. That flooding and the house batteries (huge amp hours capacity) would have electrified the water inside of the vessel, once it rose over the sole/floors and therefore would have killed the guest all while the crew was above deck or tossed/jumped into the ocean to save themselves, which would have been a selfish move, unless they saw that the guests were already dead. These questions will be uncovered soon by the capt & crew, (unless they got together and came up with their own version to keep from fingers being pointed at them).
@@podocrypto6072 " would have electrified the water inside of the vessel," oh. my. god.
Perhaps there is more CCTV footage that is more clear, more conclusive. While an SOP is just that, a procedure, does not mean that it was followed. It requires human interpretation and execution - no guarantee they were followed in this event. It is best to wait for ALL investigated information and data from the NTSB equivalent is in and available. If the rescue divers had cameras, we could see if these door(s) were/are in fact open. Mr. Freer is spot on, in every aspect.
His description of the keel was 100% wrong, so don't be too ready to accept the rest.
Once again, there is a manufacturer rushing to judgment in an attempt to distance themselves from the causes and consequences.
As a lawyer, it is difficult to think of anything more stupid.
Dunno, they haven't gone as far as claiming they can't be sued because of a Disney+ subscription so they haven't hit the lower strata of stupidity yet!
Lawyers arent noted for their intelligence, only their ability to talk utter bollocks as if it were the truth.
Tks for sharing the details. We professionals always can and have to learn from accidents. I read since more than 30 years sea accident reports. - Sadly - since hundreds of years - many of our sailing anchestors paid with their lives for the learning about an increasing safetyness on sea. In fact, we have annually around 3,000 official accidents with boats/ships. And with the increasing safety rules/technologies work on high seas and offshore became steadily safer. Yet, we always have to keep learning as the incident with the Bayesian shows. - Such YT channel is an important source of facts to keep sharp. - May the lost souls R.I.P. My condolences go to the families, friends and colleagues.
Absolutely great reporting. You are on top of this.
I would never want a boat with waterline openings. Just sayin'.
You don’t have to worry friend. If you make a statement like that it’s not in your future.
@@thereissomecoolstuff this is the second story this month about superyachts taking on water via waterline features.
@@tlsmack800 they typically close all water level doors at night or in transit. I don’t believe the doors were open. The first story as you recall they left a door open into the engineering space. Had they closed a door that was supposed to be closed and locked that new yacht would not have sunk.
If there is a very tall mast, two things come into play. The leverage at the top will be large, due to the height, and the wind up there will be stronger due to it being less encumbered by interaction with the surface. Leave a hatch open somewhere, and those far below would have no chance. I prefer hotels myself.
Even some hotels collapse in the middle of the night, happened just recently... Karma cannot be escaped !
Again. Thanks for FACTS , LOGIC, AND REASON rather than dramatic finger pointing. No one sues if a tornado knocks down a house. If one strikes on sea why does fault on humans or designers need to be placed? It was a very tragic event. The fact the humans killed were rich and famous doesn’t make it more tragic. Human life was lost. We can only hope something will be learned from this to help prevent similar from happening again.
Only if they contributed to the sinking, and if the vessel should have survived the event. Poor design or crew negligence need to be proven or discounted. If an act of God in legal terms, not sure insurance would pay. If desin flaw, similar yachts may need retrofitting. If crew was negligent, they could be civilly or criminally liable.
@@TerryKeever agree. However until they get the ship up so they can good look at all moving and broken parts , talk to everyone , and figure out what actually happened pointing fingers at/accusing crew, designer, builder, and everyone else is not positive.
What if the builder or designer stated or implied it was unsinkable? Wouldn't that induce a false sense of security leading to complacency or lack of preparedness by passengers and crew?
@@oneworldawakening TOTALLY! Likely that possibility never crossed anyone’s mind . it was just a nasty storm and big super yachts don’t sink in minutes from a normal storm. .. even those billed as nonsinkable don’t just suddenly sink. Even if the crew were all on deck securing stuff during a storm ( I don’t know if they were or not). why would you wake up the guests ? Let them sleep through it if they can.
Thanks for this analysis. Wasn't aware of your channel before, looked around a bit, great and interesting content, so I subscribed. Looking forward to more high quality analysis and reporting like this.
If the tender door was left open, the divers wouldn't have needed to cut a hole in the hull to gain access, they could just swim in through tender door
Nonsense! You really think the route was clear? 😂
You don't know what side the boat settled on either.
Great update. Very thorough and reserved at the same time. Thank you.
When a yacht designer says the normal maximum heel would be 120 degrees and maybe 90 degrees with the keel up, but the actual manufacturer says the critical heel would already be at 63 degrees with the keel up, then I think the cause is pretty clear.
How could they design a sailing yacht with those parameters and an oversized mast?
So to be clear: a normal yacht could be pushed over to where the mast would be flat on the water and it would still right itself. Making it very unlikely to capsize. This yacht however had an extreme mast which made extreme angles more likely and combined that with capsizing even if the mast would still be well away from the water. I'd be curious to hear from Chris Freer what he'd say about a critical heel angle of 63 degrees...
The very premature finger pointing of the manufacturer also leads to think that obvious mistakes were made in the design.
But this boat builder has built several similar boats and so far no similar incidents. Plus these designs are passed by the most stringent regulatory bodies. The owner would never get insurance if the design was unsafe.
63 degrees with the keel up? That is a scarily limited angle of heel. If that is correct then that boat was a death trap.
Because different boats are designed for different conditions! There is no universal standard.
@@langdons2848Depends on where you go. I'm the Med, I don't see why it would need more than 60 deg while not under sail.
The technology available could easily drop the keel if a given tilt angle was reached even if it could cause damage to the mechanism it would save the boat. Having said that why would a captain anchor in 50m of water but keep the keel raised? Also leaving stern doors open etc. unfortunately crews get complacent over time in any industry but we will have to wait until the vessel is salvaged and an inquiry has been completed.
It's pretty arrogant to think any boat, or ship can beat the ocean.
Most CAN, but it should never be treated as a sure thing by Captain or crew. Current read, BTW: "Log of the Centurian" by Leo Heaps
Quite long but quite informative. Bravo eSysman.
This Chris Freer statement is very thoughtful and hopefully gets heard in the places it matters! Thanks for another great video! As always I greatly respect how well you point out where you get information from, whose opinion you quote and where you have your own opinion. Great job, journalistic excellency!
I thought it waffle and factually incorrect on one of its major points (the type of keel), pls full of conjecture (its not know if the yacht capsized). Not helpful at all.
Excellent overview of the situation, this is clearly going to be in the news for years as there will be suits over the deaths. Sometimes your number is up and this appears to be one of those times.
Or... the Lynchs bought a yacht with known stability issues due to the giant mast and then hired a not great Captain
I'd like to know how close the water spout came along. That might shed some light on the violence of the wind, and explain why other boats had it easier, especially since we know how tornados work and can put a lot of force down in a smaller area. If that spout hit the yacht or even grazed it I doubt many designs would stand up at all, and that might explain why the boat seemed to be tipped so quickly. There's room to ask questions and review details but way too early to finger wag or claim solutions would have surely solved anything.
there was no spout. that all started with a bad translation by google. the downburst, which is common on the med, is often translated from spanish/italian as "waterspout".
@@LiveFromLondon2well no, downburst is different than “tornadic waterspout”. From the reports available it seems it was the latter, NOAA describes both phenomena, no need to translate anything from either Spanish or Italian.
Brother, this is clearly very moving for you. I could see as you spoke about it that this has really mattered and had a huge effect on you. Sorry man, hope you start to feeling better soon.
Again, your channel gives the best information about this tragic incident
Even if it was the crew, this is such a stupid thing for the builder to say. They have the option to refuse to comment until the investigation is completed. And I don't think it was the crew. That rig was ridiculous.
yes, the enquiry now is prejudiced.
@@gifthorse-n7g You can say that, but have the FACTS changed? The design (concept, rig & keel for a vessel this size) looked wrong to me from the first reports & that hasn't changed. Add dangerous oversized sliding companionway doors, a smidge of crew carelessness & a giant waterspout, & there is little more for an inquiry to "find".
I tried to access the boat builder's website yesterday and it was 'unavailable'. (Curiosity about another boat.) Others seem to have been successful. I'm a trained weather spotter of 34 years and not a mariner. I too think the crew is not at fault! Too many, even mariners who commented here, don't understand the weather phenomenons occuring that are too powerful for our current ideas of built to withstand the unpredictable.
Looking at the arrangement below deck, once heeled, even if people in the guest cabins were able to maintain some orientation, getting to the centerline doors and passageway would have been nearly impossible - even if not fighting down flooding water.
Yacht owners are in pissing contests for no reason. There will always be someone's yacht that is bigger and better. Especially when there are people who are magnitudes wealthier than some of these people.
Same can be said of BMW drivers.
@@supertuscans9512 Lamborghinis are more like it.
@@supertuscans9512 every other car in Lymington in SE England is a BMW. Such Individuality !
Ditto private jets - look at the Orange One's private jet - an fn Boeing!!
@@LL-vk9zc It used to be called keeping up with Bill Gates. The difference in wealth was and still is enormous. Trump likes to think he is richer than he is.
Thing is in that video you showed the mast was perfectly upright.... not even swaying at all. I would actually have to side with the rear doors being open as a cause. Just like this one in a million weather even this can also be a lapse in procedure from the crew... Particularly since they might not realize the gravity of not following proper procedure. Any significant waves would have flooded the rear section of the ship and led to rapid flooding...
Excellent presentation by Yacht designer Freer! Thanks for sharing!
Chris Freer's comment was very helpful in you previous video. Thanks for highlighting it here.
This is a great video and an awesome comment from someone that know what he is talking about. Thank you!
Condolences to all who lost their lives on the boat, I lost a dear the chef who I use to work along side with; it's very heart breaking.
Constantino is a fool! The yacht arrived about 10PM, so there would be no need to open those areas until guests wanted to leave the next morning.
And he's making accusations BEFORE they salvage it and make a report.
@@lazygardens Except for the fact it was extremely hot at the time
@@douglasalexander4348 it would have the best aircon
@@douglasalexander4348 They have HVAC on those luxury yachts
@@lazygardens Shops have AC, but they still have doors open. How else does a moored boat sink that quickly unless doors were open ? Tall mast, raised keel as in only 35m water, violent winds. Guess the boat keeled over enough to flood through open hatches or doors. Maybe.
What about emergency lighting? I would think a boat that cost millions of pounds would have emergency lighting that would come on if the main power goes out.
Thanks for explaining
Very informative
One trip I made as a Captain on a 42' S/F private boat offshore. We lost an engine. I will say that was intense. We were 20 miles offshore fishing. We blew a hole in a C 903ci the size of a football. This was on the outboard side and glass hull only 4" away. No damage but not a fun time.
They offered me a Bareboat Lis I said No Thank You .U needs lots of $$$$$ to Do it Right like CG 4 radios to start..😝😝