Six New Exomoons? Not So Fast…
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- Опубліковано 12 сер 2020
- A team of astronomers recently announced six new exomoon candidates, capturing the headlines and sparking plenty of excitement. Exomoons have been broadly eluded astronomers for many years, so this is a big deal.... if true. Today, new work performing an independent analysis of these signals is presented in a Cool Worlds exclusive, detailing a new paper by Prof Kipping.
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Thank-you to Tom Widdowson, Denny Smith, Stephanie Hackley, Mark Sloan, Laura Sanborn, Kolos Kantor, Patrick Herman, Abel Aganbegyan, Claudio Bottaccini, Daniel Brunk, Douglas Daughaday, Scott Fincher, James Kindred, Andrew Jones, Jason Allen, Steven Baldwin, Jason Black, Stuart Brownlee, Shivam Chaturvedi, David Denholm, Tim Dorais, Glen Downton, Eneko Xabier, Elizondo Urrestarazu, Gordon Fulton, Sean Griffiths, Peter Halloran, John Jurcevic, Niklas Kildal, Jack Kobernick, Wes Kobernick, Valeri Kremer, Marc Lijoi, Sheri Loftin, Branden Loizides, Anatoliy Maslyanchuk, Blair Matson, Ocean Mcintyre, Laini Mitchell, Jeffrey Needle, André Pelletier, Juan Rivillas, Bret Robinson, Zenith Star, Lauren Steely, Ernest Stefan-Matyus, Mark Steven, Elena West, Barrett York, Tristan Zajonc, Preetumsingh Gowd & Shaun Kelsey.
References:
► Kipping (2020), "arxiv.org/abs/2008.03613", ApJL, accepted: arxiv.org/abs/2008.03613
► Fox & Wiegert (2020), "Exomoon Candidates from Transit Timing Variations: Six Kepler systems with TTVs explainable by photometrically unseen exomoons", MNRAS, submitted: arxiv.org/abs/2006.12997
► Bennett et al. (2020), "A Sub-Earth-Mass Moon Orbiting a Gas Giant Primary or a High Velocity Planetary System in the Galactic Bulge", ApJ, 785, 155: arxiv.org/abs/1312.3951
► Désert et al. (2011), "The hot-Jupiter Kepler-17b: discovery, obliquity from stroboscopic starspots, and atmospheric characterization", ApJS, 197, 14: arxiv.org/abs/1107.5750
► ESA Exoplanet Roadmap Advisory Team (2010), "A European Roadmap for Exoplanets": sci.esa.int/documents/33859/3...
::Video clips used::
► Exomoon animation by STScI/NASA Hubble Space Telescope
► Jupiter/Saturn with moons by Kevin Hill: www.flickr.com/photos/kevinmg...
► Ganymede animation by NASA/USGS: • Jupiter's Moon Ganymede
► Kepler Orrey IV by Ethan Kruse: • Kepler Orrery IV
► HD 10180 animation by ESO/L. Calçada: www.eso.org/public/videos/eso...
► GJ 1214 animation by ESO/L. Calçada: www.eso.org/public/videos/eso...
► Transit animation by ESA: sci.esa.int/web/gaia/-/58789-...
► Kepler animation by NASA/Kepler Mission/Dana Berry: exoplanets.nasa.gov/resources...
► Planet-planet TTV animation by NASA/Kepler Mission: • Transit Timing Variations
::Movies/TV scenes used::
► Avatar (2009) 20th Century Fox
► The Charlie Rose Show (1996) PBS
::Music::
Music used is licensed by SoundStripe.com (SS) [shorturl.at/ptBHI] or via Creative Commons (CC) Attribution License (creativecommons.org/licenses/...)
► "Ion" by Indive licensed licensed under a CC Attribution license: indive.bandcamp.com
► "The Sun is Scheduled to Come Out Tomorrow" by Chris Zabriskie licensed under a CC Attribution license: chriszabriskie.bandcamp.com/a...
► "Waking Up" by Atlas licensed via SS
► "Cylinder Five" by Chris Zabriskie licensed under a CC Attribution license: chriszabriskie.com/cylinders/
► "That Hopeful Future Is All I've Ever Known" by Chris Zabriskie licensed under a CC Attribution license: chriszabriskie.com/neptuneflux/
► "Lightyears away" by Indive licensed licensed under a CC Attribution license: indive.bandcamp.com
Thumbnail by goodfon wallhere.com/en/wallpaper/173...
Exomoon image at 19:25 by Physics_Hacker - Наука та технологія
Woah! :-O At 19:25 you show an image of a planet and it's moon, and I'm actually the one that created the image, in Blender! I would not have expected to see one of my images in your videos!
In any case, these are very exciting possibilities, even if they turn out to not be true - it's better that we be skeptical anyway since we wouldn't want to claim to have found an exomoon and then discover later that it was never really there.
I’ll add a credit in the description! Nice work
@@CoolWorldsLab Thank you ^_^
nice job bro
great image, i can only imagine what buzz it must have been for you to see it in the video
@@TheSebiestor It definitely was!
This is by far the best channel I'm subscribed too. I have so much respect for every one apart of the Cool Worlds lab. I end up learning and having fun at the same time. Even when I don't understand some of these things he talks about I still find it so interesting. So thank you for your content Cool Worlds.
I love listening to you. It's so calming yet exciting at the same time.
Yea the little bit I understand 😆 🤣
You are right.
What strikes most about the Professors presentation is the sheer volume of his passion for the topic. Very exciting times in the field of Astrophysics 💫☄️
That's no exomoon, it's a space station!
:O
movie much? its a nice sci fi movie :) i dont remember the name though
@@duality4y It's from Star War I just don't remember which one.
@@dararamasa539 i was think of a different movie
Too late, we're caught by a tractor beam!
Seriously, how does this channel not have more subscribers? Incredible content that really stimulates the mind.
Seriously, I believe you deserve a thanks for your compliment from cool worlds.
Science at it's most wonderful and heart breaking. To know you would have jumped for joy should these candidates have stood up to scrutiny, but had the integrity to write a paper that unfortunately and most likely; suggests otherwise.
Yet these findings and critiques serve to deepen the understanding of those that look to make these discoveries in future and so, right or wrong; are invaluable.
Yes
i mean... neil de grass tyson is just noisy next to you !
Content is from the heart
Niel degrass Tyson is kind of pretentious ... with his grand gesticulations and over-wrought verbal inflections.
Great video. Can't wait for the first habitable exomoon to be discovered!
Would be Sci-Fi come true. Pandora from the Avatar movie is an exomoon around a gas giant.
@@ProjectPhysX In the movie, Pandora orbiting a gas giant around Alpha Centauri. Just makes you wonder - scientists were able to get a direct image of planets around TYC 8998-760-1, but somehow not of Alpha Centauri yet? TYC-8998-760-1 is about 300 light-years away, how is it that they can't image a system that is 4 light-years away?
@@kataseiko you do know that all advanced technology and information is about 10 years ahead of what they let the public know. And I would bet money on that.
@Katana Seiko the planets around YC-8998-760-1 orbit respectively 162 and 320 times further from their star than Earth from the Sun, the reason we were able to get direct images is because of their extremely large orbits.
My favorite place to revisit my field, new discoveries and so much new data! Your team makes it easy to “catch” up rather quickly. Thanks and gratitude to you and your team.
Go straight to the Comments Section and see what The Experts have to say about this video.
:)
Expert here: Here in Middle Earth we use Legolas' eyes to scan the sky for exomoons. We haven't found any.
@@frodobaggins6450 You need to toss Legolas higher, not those nearsighted dwarfs.
This is super interesting, I really enjoy the depth of these videos and yet how accessible it is for someone who doesn’t study or hasn’t studied that field.
Totally
Ok, I discovered you on StarTalk, and I'm so Happy! Every single part of your channel makes it one of the best I've come across. Your soft voice, and the speed at which you speak. All the visual aids, including a Ton of Your personal and teams papers. The videos you film out in the woods. Everything about your videos is more enjoyable than anything I have come across. So awesome! Thank you for the Amazing channel, and thank you for looking up!
Thank you for this video. Cool Worlds is rapidly becoming my favorite science channel on YT, right up there with Thunderf00t and Dr. Becky❤
Yes
Two out of three ain't bad.
This was a unbelievable video. Seriously. I'm not sure how someone can give me chills like this channel does. I'm so excited about science even though I don't do any. This has made me think of so much more around me. Thank you
Keep them coming. I share with my sons and my sister. Very interested and inspiring.
this is AMAZING. You deserve more subscribers~!
Another stellar video! Keep them coming CWL, I've not found a boring video on your channel. Everything is interesting, and very well spoken. Awesome! I was really hoping that it was true, even to maybe just just finding one.
I find these presentations very engaging.
Thank you.
Your videos are simply incredible.
I always love hearing your updates. 🙄
Coold Worlds, ASTRUM, and SEA are my favorite space channels. Their narrators are the best!
Always looking forward to your videos. You're really becoming one of my favorite astronomy youtube channels at the moment.
Totally unrelated to this video, but somewhat related astronomy question. They just found out there is some stars orbiting Sagittarius A* at mind-boggling speeds (20+% of the speed of light iirc?). What would a hypothetical planet around that star look like? (aside from the fact that it most likely would have been flung far away because of all the other stars in that neighborhood making it a gravitational roller coaster I guess)
These videos are incredible. As a side hobby, you do a better job than most professional documentarians.
You're a great explainer and your voice is pleasant. Do you narrate any audiobooks?
Would a moon have a greater effect on the TTV than unknown planets? Could you use the TTV of the Earth as an example and then simulate the TTV without the moon to get an idea of the differences between them? Or are they indistinguishable?
The relative amplitudes depend on the parameters for the system, they can be bigger or smaller unfortunately. But stay tuned as we have some new work coming on methods to distinguish!
Interesting
TTV?
@@justinfreeman9289 Transit time variation.
Thank you for the video.
Really enjoy your content a lot! Such an underrated channel. Keep it up and you will grow big very very soon!
I really enjoy this content.... Great job all around!
Clicked a like already because I already know this video will be top tier as always.
I can't wait to watch this at night. ^ ^
Fantastic video! I'm excited by the search for exomoons. Here's a methodology question: In the plot where you compared number of planetary orbits (time) as the x axis, and TTVs in the y axis, does the value of a point at x[T] rely upon x[T-1]? To me, I would think it does. If so, you cannot simply perform cross-validation, correct? Due to the nature of a point relying upon the previous one, you can't simply use a middle section or the beginning as your hold out set. In order to do use cross-validation for this time-series data, you'd need to use rolling cross-val or some kind of bootstrap.
How do get a career in astronomy? I been interested for a long time. But not sure how to proceed in my dream. Is this a field that accepts new comers?
Absolutely! Most professional astronomers hold a PhD so you’ll want to first get a STEM degree and then a PhD in astro
@greg taylor I am aware about the pay. Salaries are reasonable, but competition for jobs are stiff( or at least what i heard of). I just think it is a good retiring job. I'm young with no money what so ever to drop everything i have now to go to school. Im working to make money other ways till I can afford going into astronomy. Till then it is just a dream. The night sky isn't leaving me anytime soon.
Ordinary people: "I'm pleasantly surprised."
Scientists: "I'm pleasantly disappointed."
That's life all over, isn't it?
...or did I get that the wrong way round?
Hehe
Failure is the greatest teacher. Forever will we be its students..as long as you accept this you will succeed. Great video!
and I have another question: What is the minimum energy of light? Or rephrased: can it have < h/s ?
Thank You
Another awesome video! Shame the candidates weren't candidates after all, but grateful science is being done properly
It's just like UFOs being the lead story on the news. It's crazy how many people have been desensitized to new science and astrological discoveries. Great vids love the channel. 👍👍
It's quite interesting how you have come up with the criteria for testing the existence of exomoons candidates. It is an indication of your knowledge in the field and that you and your team have given this some considerable thoughts. However, as a non-technical person, I wonder if others in the science community agree with the validity of the criteria and if it is enough to disprove their claims?
Let them throw more evidence at each other. Watch science in the making.
Another brilliant production. Not only are we treated to an explanation of how probable it is that these moons exist, but also an explanation of how true scientific discoveries are made and varified.
Why is a true scientist happy to be told he/she is wrong?
Because that means they can concentrate on looking for the right answer having successfully eliminated one of the wrong answers!
I can see dr Kipping becoming immortalised as the father of the pursuit of exomoons. No way to monitize exomoons + return on investment is negative is why expect there is a disproportionately low effort....best of luck to you and the team!!!!! 🌏
It's sad to see we that we don't have more exomoon candidates, but great to see science in action!
I live in Karachi Pakistan and I like your comment send 10 month ago
impressive and illuminating
This is so cool!
Dr. Kipping, a question. I was watching the show "Dark Matter", which personally I really enjoyed. They would always be traveling FTL, using whatever fictional tech the writers came up with. One thing I was thinking about with regards to that was the time dilation that occurs when traveling at those speeds. As we know, the faster we go, the slower time moves for us (relativity). So, in the case of this show and all sci fi shows that use FTL travel, wouldn't the trip, although it may be hours or days for the crew to cross the galaxy, would still be hundreds of years for the people on the space station or planet they are traveling to? Or am I missing something? Thanks.
Yes if something is 1000 light years away, then it will take at least a 1000 years for the ship to reach it as experienced by the rest of the universe - onboard the ship it could be much less.
@@CoolWorldsLab kind of kills interstellar travel in its tracks I feel like. Thanks for clarifying!
@@CoolWorldsLab Actually, wondering if I could follow up with this. With a "warp drive", and the concept of folding space around you instead of moving through space yourself, theoretically would the time dilation phenomena still occur? Or since you are technically not moving at all, that might be a way around said dilation? Thanks again if you're able to see this since I know you get a ton of comments.
@61 Cygni Yea, I mean, of course it's all just theoretical. I have no formal schooling or training or anything, I'm just a pleb. It would make sense though that time dilation wouldn't occur since you aren't moving, but who knows. Interesting topic at least.
Interesting research. It is a prelude for more to come as better space telescopes are launched.
What effect on periodic TTVs would be expected from multiple exomoons? Could that make comparisons to a simple sinusoidal wave make an exomoon detection seem less likely?
This looks like what happens in The movie
" Clara "
and I recommend everyone to watch that movie 🔥
@CoolWorlds Cool Worlds, I’m writing a comment here for another vid you did a year ago which saturated with K’s of comments. This is your most recent release so I’m hoping to get this question to you:
Type 1 Civilization Video:
Instead of SHEETS of solar PANELS around the outside of our atmosphere, whatabout releasing a layer of NANOBOTS into the upper atmosphere? ...Or exploiting particles?
Bboy Academy Hmmm. I thought he did mention something like a cloud of nanobots slowly dispersed by tidal drift. Or maybe that was in reference to seeding the entire Milky Way with messages to other possible civilizations? Sorry to eavesdrop, but I remember the idea, just not the context or relevance!
Ontario is pronounced: on-ter-ee-O (as in to 'tear' paper)
As a Statistician, who knows zero about what you are talking about, but a long time subscriber, to me, the scatter plot data looks like there is a 2nd longer amplitude TTV going on - maybe another moon in resonance. I would try an fit a second 'moon' curve to that data that aligns with the higher spikes. What do I know - but that is what I see - and I've seen videos about moons finding certain resonance patterns which makes me think this might be happened (if the data is accurate). Just seeing data as a Stats guy.
I'm not a scientist or professional of any kind and a second moon in resonance was my first thought for the peaks. Just out of curiosity I would love to see how two or more moons in resonance might affect the period of a transiting exoplanet.
hello cool worlds im your new viewer for today
Hi. Great Podcast as always, learning a lot :-). I have a question, and sorry if it sounds stupid. When you see a TTV, how do you know its actually 1 planet and not say 2 or more planets passing simultaneously?
I Would Love To Be Part Of Your Team❤️🔭❤️
♡
interesting channel. subscribed.😎
So would Exomoons be able to be observed more directly in the shadow of a planet? wouldn't that be difficult? Would we be able to analyse an exomoons atmosphere or directly photograph one in the next 50 years?
Speaking of machine learning, have you and your team considered using it to do a quick and dirty filter of transit data so you can work on the more likely samples?
I agree 100% with the search for new exomoons especially around large planets in the habitable zone of a Sun like or large stars. Their could be Earth like moons around these large exoplanets. I'm going out on a limb and saying it. Looking at moons in our Solar System and the diversity of planets discovered there's no reason to believe there's some habitable Earth size exomoons out there. Some Astronomers like yourself are looking at the big picture. I hope more follow. Love your videos and music.
I am thinking that JWST should be able to help you in this area. BTW, do not take this the wrong way...but your voice helps me fall asleep.
Hi there 🙂.
You mentioned that at a certain point moons may not have enough mass for easy detection. How massive, say... how many times more massive than the Earth's moon, does a moon have to be, for easy detection???
Also, when the Magellan telescope comes online, is there any chance that it could be employed to search for exomoons??? I'm not entirely certain when that monster in central Chile will become fully operational, but one can scarcely wait to see it happen.👍🧐
please make a video on "what was there before the big bang "
actually just seeing them would be great but so it might probably less exciting than new particles in particle physics. I still remember the solar telescope episode.
Multiple large moons would also confound the observations, i.e. the signal is not sinusoidal. Is this a possible reason?
Keep this guy for your narations 😊
If you only get a positive result 1 out of 3 or 4 times could the signals from multiple moons be affecting the wave you would expect to see from a single moon?
Yaay machine learning ^_^ Which network models are you guys using for analysing TTVs? :)
How do you have an exomoon candidate that has moon-like/periodic TTVs but doesn’t have TTVs? Or did I read something wrong? Would be interesting to see the maths behind all three of the characterisations, perhaps even the code you used to calculate them.
I suspect a Fourier transform would be a relatively easy way of detecting periodicity in a TTV, and I think it would be interesting to see an FFT of that particular example.
See the paper for the gory details
9:00 - very important point in the video
Would variations in the exomoon's orbital period reveal other moons?
Love the beats at the end.👍
We goin raving after this?
indive.bandcamp.com/track/lightyears-away
@@stevenmathews7621 how the hell did you know what it was
@@stevencoardvenice
lol, just shazam'd it ;)
Last time i was this early pluto was still a planet
I don't understand chart at 13:16. How can you have a TTV that is periodic if you failed the test that a TTV exists? What is the method for finding the sinusoidal frequency of the figure at 14:30? Do you do a curve fit in the time domain or do you use the frequency domain with some kind of FFT tool on the data? Cool article.
I didn't quite understand something in your "exomoon tests": how can an exoplanet fail "are there TTVs at all" test and still pass "are TTVs periodic" test (KOI-303.01)? Thanks!
This may of been said/debated before but exomoons probably have a higher percentage of life chance than the exoplanets.
For instance we see many more gas giant type exoplanets in the goldilox zone of keplar obesrved stars, but like you said saturnhas 80+moons.
When we see these larger planets in the goldilox zone we seem to disscount them and write them off as unintresting. Which to me seems bizar as the potential then to meanyways is 80x larger that there could be life.
Anyhoo love the chanel. Keep them coming. ❤
What are the chances though that other planetary orbital planes are either radially or axially aligned to our view point? Scarcity of detectable exoplanets & exomoons may be simply due to only a handful aligning in such a way that we can detect them.
The enthusiasm of Cool Worlds for “discovery leavened with skepticism” is very contagious. And a very healthy attitude for what ails our larger society! A large fraction of America is weary of random irreverence, understandably, in my opinion. The other half is congenitally allergic to unquestioned reverence. That’s the moon I live on.
But both reverence and its rascally cousin, ir-, are indispensable eccentricities for the vitality of democracy. In fact, they cyclically annihilate each other or regularly jump to other orbits. Earth is having an awful time agreeing on what actually matters enough to warrant oblivion for anything. All verifiable results to the left slit, please. All flat-earth observers, to the right (yeah, the trap door was my idea!)
Maybe the secular ethics of science could lead the national longing for concord after this disjuncture. And scientists of ethics could be the logical agents for re-gearing moral science to a larger moral society. Should such a project flounder, as I fear it would, those same agents of scientific ethics could meld the perspectives of other scientific and humanities disciplines to flesh out an ethical future in some imaginative exo-society. Or are we already needing a full-fledged exo-future?
The wrong-turn scenaria are endless. But do we not find ourselves in just such a wrong-turn whoops? The future we weren’t expecting is endo, with nary an exo on the horizon.
Ibn Rusd and Immanuel Kant, please beam down.
Now imagine Trump reading all of this and actually get it? rofl
Perhaps some Alien civilizations might just be moons the size of earth that could be habitable. We should be just as interesting in EXO moons as we are exoplanets
I can just imagin some species growing up on the moon of a hot Jupiter, the brightness of day nearly matched by the glow of that massive gas giant at night, or the frequent eclipses as your moon slips behind that gas giant, dropping you into increadible darkness in its shadow, how that global day, then global night would influence how life evolved and possible cultures and sciences that spur from that alone might be very interesting
I know one thing- I have become totally in love with the moon's our own solar systems. So of course I'm excited about exomoons! ( Question: how do you tell when there is multiple moons on one planet?)
I've heard a lot about tidal flexing creating the heat/energy needed to power life on moons around giant planets. But does being so close to these giant planets necessarily create extra hazards for life due to radiation etc., that orbiting a small terrestrial planet does not?
I wonder if host planets offer protection to their moon in a similar fashion as Jupiter does for us. The planets stronger grav pull sucking in asteroids or other debris.
@@nursemark447 its dangerous to get close to Jupiter. Lots of radiation. That's why I was asking the professor
Pls make a video again on Betelgeuse....on the new updates
Can''t you apply a fourier transform to a "noisy" ttv?
That’s what a Lomb Scargle periodogram essentially does, except an FT won’t work on unevenly sampled data but the LS will
Can you please make an episode about the Oh My God particle ? Yall doin a great job
six more a thousand more to come *hopefully* JWST will give us those first looks, and thanks for the inside, also great of you to release this today, later Event Horizon now this, makes those times a bit better :D Would love to listen to another episode with you and JMG both :D
This guy's skepticism is so contagious that I'm just sitting here re evaluating my entire life in hopes that he doesn't decide to roast me in a published paper..✍
Zack Tomczak I know, Zack! You totally nailed my anxiety. Or anxieties, plural.
He’s exactly the kid I hoped would like me in 5th grade. Back then I invariably flubbed every test of “coolness” put before me. Meanwhile, the guy whose approval I coveted is now a published, well-reviewed professor of American History at Harvard. The only email I sent him, meekly hoping for reconnection, or even some terse, vestigial recognition of my existence, earned a deafening silence. Well, what was I thinking; no doubt he’s terribly busy advising senators, and squeezing in rarified roundtable dinners with ambassadors and Nobel laureates . . . thank God I won the only time Sr. Roberta had us face off in Latin class. “Now, boys, conjugate ‘to be victorious.’ “
Something that stands out in my mind with the hunt for exomoons is the distance the candidate planet is from it's star. In our solar system planets closer than 1AU do not have moons. Also moons generally do not have moons of their own. My assumption is there is some sort of mechanism at play like the Roche radius that prevents a world from having stable satellites of it's own when it is within a certain distance of it's more massive parent. As in given the mass of the Sun Venus is too close to have Moons and our Moon and most moons for that matter are too close to their planets to have moons of their own.
If there is such a mechanism known are these exomoon candidates as well as your candidate far enough away from their stars to allow for a stable moon?
THX 1138 Hey, THX, apologies for eavesdropping, but I find your question incredibly interesting. I’ve also wondered why the satellites we call moons don’t have satellites, or “moons,” of their own. But rather than suspecting mass has some determinative role, I’m tending toward temporal limits-the advantages maybe gained by “late accretion” in a rotating solar disc. Supposedly, the small, rocky planets were the first to coalesce from the collapsing protoplanetary cloud, thanks to the high melting point and density of the elemental compositions of youngest planets born in a solar family. Right? Then the gas giants rapidly sweep up the remaining dust, and drift into orbits beyond the mostly moonless little rockies, on the far side of the frost line, to which Jupiter is now most proximal.
My thinking continues that the largest planets, forming last around a new star, gain the same protection from predator absorption that titanic size confers on sauropods and cetaceans. Plus their gravity can sweep up and consume the detritus that might have gifted smaller, earlier planets more moons. Jovian behemoths come late to the party, yet rudely eat more than the tidy, punctual guests, end up gaining more weight and nabbing more party favors (another moon!?). Wikipedia’s entry on the solar system’s origins actually confirms a multi-powered dynamic involving mass, as you propose, as well as early, granular spherogenesis for little bruisers, late concretion and great-power privileges for “sweeping giants,” the variety of heavy-to-light element ratios, conservation of angular momenta and evaporative proximity to, or protective distance from, solar radiation.
Needless to say, I’d also be in seventh heaven to have a conversation with David about these proto-orbital mechanics of our solar system. He’s so erudite and articulate, though, I’d be launched into a quiescently frozen, suspended sapience, measurable only on geologic-time scales.
en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Formation_and_evolution_of_the_Solar_System
What if it has two or more moons? That will also make the simple sinusoidal curve unfit. I think if the solar system is typical, having only one moon is actually rare.
Your chart at 13:28 shows KOI 303.01 having failed the TTV test (a red X), yet passed the periodic TTV test (a blue check). How is that possible?
It’s passes it very marginally at 54%, so I think it’s almost generous to call this a pass
@@CoolWorldsLab - Ok, but if it even marginally passes the periodic TTV test, why isn't that also by default "prove" it has a TTV? That is, periodic TTVs are a subclass of all TTVs, no? Though I guess you are using entirely different tests, which could give rise to apparent logical problems like this.
@@-johnny-deep- The tests are independent, yes. A marginal case for periodic TTVs doesn't mean that there are statistically significant TTVs. The significance test accounts for model complexity more rigorously than cross-validation, which does have a different way of dealing with complexity.
@@CoolWorldsLab - Ok, thanks for the reply!
I am so excited for you, Dr! I am proud to watch your videos and learn so much from you! Thank you for posting.
All that is happening here is trying to fit a criteria to an unknown definition. This is a very difficult to do, how to define something. But starting this process itself is a leap towards the core of science. It is massively important in developing our understanding.
Could the age of that particular solar system not solve this problem? We look at the age of our own solar system. We know that our solar system has no planets wobbling around or close to other planets, which means the solar system somehow got balanced over time and is now fully stable. If we determine the age of the solar system where the candidates for exomoons are, and if that age is similar to the age of our own solar system (or older), could we not conclude that the solar system is fully stable and then exclude the possibility that other planets are causing the TTV for the planet we observe? Therefore only the explanation of an exomoon could remain possible.
6:02 You're breathtaking.
WHOA......as the Universe expands, so must our minds....so they don't BLOW!...hahahaha...great video bro....
As we already know that there are "earth like" planets out there, the presence of a moon, if big enough, is the other key factor for the stability of climate, that will lead to life no matter what kind.
It's common sense to say we discover exomoons when our telescopes become larger and more sensitive to changes in light at the parent planet. Most likely will require a sun shade as well to decrease the amount of light from the selected star to observe the parent planet first.
Is a candidate or isn't, hasn't yet been determined. This is a criteria fight that's based in the hard scientific facts. Dr. K has presented a strong case. Let's see the response.
And, yes, the process will be very interesting to watch. Better yet will be the number of bright young minds that will fall in love with exomoons because of this.
Could the reason that the straight line matching better be caused by multiple moons, or would the straight line be more likely an indication of 0 moons?
Well a flat line is consistent with 0 moons, but indeed a very large number of non resonant moons could also cause a flat line. But ultimately it would kind of weird to claim a bunch of moons based on the absence of evidence, since a far simpler explanation is that there are no (big) moons
@@CoolWorldsLab sweet, thanks for the explanation.
@@CoolWorldsLab Hello Dr. Kipping, i dont finde a better lik to reach you. Talking about reproducabikity with the example of pharmaceutics: especially in Biosciences, where I came from, has a really tough time reproducing something, especially if living cells are involved. Usually methods and specifiv environment and paramteres are much too complex and too little accurately documented to often allow reoroducing experiments. Hope, astronomy is more robust in this regard 😊
Why is there no link to the "Captain William S Jacob" video. I have to type all that out and paste it into the search bar? Might as well comment since I have to type it anyway.
ua-cam.com/video/2hNWCI-9n8Q/v-deo.html
Isnt it possible to use gravitational lensing from Jupiter or Saturn to focus on a exoplanet suspicious of an exomoon?
The Nancy Grace Roman space telescope that will be launched in 5 years . Maybe you can use it in collaboration with Ohio State University. Follow your dreams dude. And dont forget you are standing on a (very old) star called Earth.
Could seemingly non-periodic TTVs be the result of multiple exomoons tugging on the same planet? Not that I think it’s the case with 2728 though
Wait, how can you exhibit a periodic TTV without exhibiting a TTV in the first place like KOI-303.01?
Good question! That one was very marginal, 54% of the moon models out performed the flat line. So it barely passes the test and I think this is just a slight statistical fluctuation.
Half-time and it's Cool Worlds, 6...University of Ontario, 0...we'll be back after this periodic break!