Vintage vs Modern Stars vs Prospects - An Experiment on Which Cards Hold Their Value Best
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- Опубліковано 2 лип 2024
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BASEBALL CARD COLLECTOR INVESTOR DEALER (in that order)
Chris Sewall here.
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Chris, this is why your channel is the only sports card channel i watch regularly. You are always doing videos on card nerdy topics we can sink our teeth into. I bet just about anyone writing comments here could write a damn book on this subject. Its interesting, thought-provoking, and fun. Freaking fantastic, man.
The categories are a little goofy. Mahomes seems like a smart and obvious buy, but he’s not really a prospect and he’s not at the latter end of his career.
Hey, good morning, happy 4th everyone. In that order🤝🏻
I did the mistake of buying hockey, baseball and football card boxes in 2021-22 and kept them thinking that the important cards gonna increase in value with time 🤦🏻 I even still have all the cards I bought back in 1990-92 🤦🏻🤦🏻
Did you get a hair cut? you need to put that tail over the front of your shoulder sir!
I would not buy any of these portfolios to sell 3 months from now. Don't think any will be in the money after seller fees. In a year I would say the middle group will go up the most and in 10 years I would def go with A.
If you don’t say A you don’t know cards.
IMO, I think group B will be the worst performer overall. A young player breaking out for a year will 3x their price. A veteran doing the same usually doesn't swing their prices all that crazy since they already have established career stats. Group C could be the loser if a few of those players really fall off but prospects usually hold value until their 3rd year or so. Vintage is the better investment long term but you need someone to die for prices to go up more than 10% or so in a year
I'm skipping the 3 month guess because I'm not organized enough to flip on that schedule😄... At one year, the prospects in group C will experience the wildest swing in values with many(most?) falling down to just better than commons... Group B will probably enjoy the biggest increase as they include players who generate interest as active pros... Group C will follow the general trading card market rise, which is typically slow and steady, so they will increase in value just a bit... So, group B is the better play here unless you managed to pick a breakout star in Group C...
I’m looking forward to seeing how this plays out. For 3 months, I’m taking portfolio B. For 1 year, I’m thinking maybe C. One or 2 of those guys has a good year….sky’s the limit on their cards.
A loses 5% plus seller fees.
Fantastic move on the Stamkos Young Guns! I’m stocking up on his PSA 10s! Low POP and compare his Young Guns to other future HOF players and you’ll see how much it can grow. 2 cups and he’s gonna hit the 600 goal mark in 2 years. I shouldn’t share my hockey secrets but he is a BUY! Criminally undervalued
For 3 months I'd take group C, it's obviously the most volatile but I think if you have 1-2 prospects blow up it could lift the entire group. Poor (or no) performance out of this group I don't think will depress the value too much as people hold out hope for "their guys".
I think, short term, C has the most potential to go up but I’d go B for one year. I feel like vintage is a safe investment with little risk and less reward.
Obviously vintage is always the safest bet when it comes to investing (and flipping) with the only caveat being you have to know what you're doing.. I mean you're not going to lose money on vintage if you're an experienced collector/investor/dealer - not only that - but if you know your stuff and are familiar with the vintage market - vintage cards are extremely easy cards to flip - especially high-grade raw vintage because there is always a demand for high-grade vintage cards (even mid-grade cards, and low grade cards with nice eye-appeal). I mean I can't recall the last time I lost money on vintage, sure on the rare occasion I'll break even, or not make as much as I would like - I usually like to 5X my investment on cards less than 40 bucks or so - but I haven't taken a loss in a very-very long time.. Of course at the moment I have a pretty substantial vintage inventory, hence money invested into cardboard - but I don't anticipate losing money on any of it - and that's what makes vintage so great from an investment perspective - I don't have to sell vintage immediately, I can take my time with it and the market will remain strong and stable with long-term gains almost a certainty (it's a good hedge against inflation to boot).. So given my experience as a vintage investor/collector/dealer - losing money on vintage is not possible, not with my nearly 40-years of experience dealing in vintage cards, lol..... So with all of that said - vintage is vastly superior to ultra-modern and a terrific "store of value" to boot if you''re looking to invest in something tangible that holds value - similar to bitcoin, gold etc just not nearly as volatile.. I suppose my point is that a raw VG/Ex 1966 Topps Mickey Mantle will always be a good buy for $75 bucks because you can flip it raw for $140+ and make 100% return or you can invest another $20, have it slabbed and hope for a 5.5 and 5X your investment, and you can do so at your own leisure, because that card is NOT going down in value, ever! lol.
3 Months: Portfolio B
A is a fixed rate CD
This is a great series! I’m an “A” guy personally. While dabbling in the other two options usually to sell to fund for my “A” collection.
You have the Brandon Miller Silver Psa 10 at $90. It sells for $200+ on every recent sale on eBay.
A is my favorite