Very informative video as usual. Thank you for your kindness. i watched your interview on korean news channel. I didn't expect, guru deals with korean stock market and share a viewpoint on cryptocurrency. It was super beneficial to me. Hope to watch more videos and interviews.
It is not clear to me exactly what he means by saying long bonds falling would indicate big inflation. Does he mean the price of long bonds have to fall or the yield of the long bonds has to fall? Because yesterday the price of the long bonds fell dramatically.
It seems to me that the 0.5% hike hadn't been priced in before its actual implementation, even though it had been known beforehand that a hike was coming, so do you still think that widely known information is always priced in?
Really? Lumber has tripled since last September and is within 10% of its all time high. Iron is up 60% since it bottomed in November. The long bond, 30 yr treasury (TMUBMUSD30Y), bottomed at 1.67% on 12/6/21 and hit 2.36% on 2/15/22. That's +69 basis points higher not +30. The recent drop to 2.14% is not because inflation expectations have changed it's because there's been a flight to safety since the start of the war in Ukraine. Gold and silver prices are way up. Is that market wrong? If the market was so smart why didn't it see the inflation that we've had for the last 10 months? It's been over 5% and climbing the whole time. The 30 yr bond was yielding 1.82% on 1/1/2021. Shouldn't it have been higher in anticipation of extremely high inflation? I think he's had some of whatever Powell has been smoking.
Besides what it is explained in the video, which is all agreeable, some pundits say there is an issue in the recent freeze of Russian assets (due to the invasion of Ukraine). More specifically, the assets in dollars and euros of Russia. So, around 60% of the currency reserves held by the countries are dollars, and around other 20% are euros. For the first time -I believe- this economical sanction of freezing currency reserves has been applied. Should this signal to some countries that is not such a good idea to hold the bulk of their reserves in dollars and euros as it makes vulnerable to sanctions? United States and Europe can increase their offering of monetary mass because there has been also a great deal of demand for their currencies. Therefore, increasing such offering does not affect so much the value of the American or Euro as might have happened with other currencies (less inflation produced, understood as eroding buying power of the currency). The latter is an issue different from the recent inflation induced by the covid, where the problem is not really the monetary mass (not a problem of demand due to a low velocity in the exchange rate of money), but the logistic bottlenecks (offering) Which is your opinion?
He’s literally right wtf… I’ve seen gas prices go down ten cents every week/two weeks. Ik oil prices don’t reflect inflation exactly but I think ken is right abt how things will settle before the 2024 elections which will have massive political implications
well I am not necessarily agreeing nor disagreeing with Mr. Fisher, guarantee he knows a lot more than me on the subject. But he did forget to mention the Russo Ukraine war. And I only mention it because even though gasoline price has already inflated a lot, after the war started, gasoline on my area spike 40 cents USD after having held at about $3 per gallon USD for several weeks. Really disappointed me and I sure hope those Rbob gasoline producers ramp it up to bring down the price.
Very informative video as usual. Thank you for your kindness. i watched your interview on korean news channel. I didn't expect, guru deals with korean stock market and share a viewpoint on cryptocurrency. It was super beneficial to me. Hope to watch more videos and interviews.
Where did you watch this?
Thanks Ken, I always look forward to your talks.
It is not clear to me exactly what he means by saying long bonds falling would indicate big inflation. Does he mean the price of long bonds have to fall or the yield of the long bonds has to fall? Because yesterday the price of the long bonds fell dramatically.
Thank you Ken. I always enjoy listening to your market updates
Thank you, Ken. Investing ideas are free to us. Really appreciate it
It seems to me that the 0.5% hike hadn't been priced in before its actual implementation, even though it had been known beforehand that a hike was coming, so do you still think that widely known information is always priced in?
Love you from Korea. I do not listen to anyone but Mr.Fisher.
Very helpful video!
Thank you Mr Fisher for your wisdom; I also look fwd to your talks-- one of the main reason I use FB.
Love this guy
Have a good weekend, thank you
Thank you, Ken.
Always, thanks for your intelligent insight about macro issues.
thanks for doing these videos
Thank you that you share your experience and knowledge!
Really? Lumber has tripled since last September and is within 10% of its all time high. Iron is up 60% since it bottomed in November. The long bond, 30 yr treasury (TMUBMUSD30Y), bottomed at 1.67% on 12/6/21 and hit 2.36% on 2/15/22. That's +69 basis points higher not +30. The recent drop to 2.14% is not because inflation expectations have changed it's because there's been a flight to safety since the start of the war in Ukraine. Gold and silver prices are way up. Is that market wrong? If the market was so smart why didn't it see the inflation that we've had for the last 10 months? It's been over 5% and climbing the whole time. The 30 yr bond was yielding 1.82% on 1/1/2021. Shouldn't it have been higher in anticipation of extremely high inflation? I think he's had some of whatever Powell has been smoking.
Thank you for sharing great opinion!
What about the war in Ukraine and its additional pressures on energy prices and supply chains?
Thanks ken
Besides what it is explained in the video, which is all agreeable, some pundits say there is an issue in the recent freeze of Russian assets (due to the invasion of Ukraine). More specifically, the assets in dollars and euros of Russia. So, around 60% of the currency reserves held by the countries are dollars, and around other 20% are euros. For the first time -I believe- this economical sanction of freezing currency reserves has been applied. Should this signal to some countries that is not such a good idea to hold the bulk of their reserves in dollars and euros as it makes vulnerable to sanctions?
United States and Europe can increase their offering of monetary mass because there has been also a great deal of demand for their currencies. Therefore, increasing such offering does not affect so much the value of the American or Euro as might have happened with other currencies (less inflation produced, understood as eroding buying power of the currency). The latter is an issue different from the recent inflation induced by the covid, where the problem is not really the monetary mass (not a problem of demand due to a low velocity in the exchange rate of money), but the logistic bottlenecks (offering)
Which is your opinion?
always enjoy these.
He’s literally right wtf… I’ve seen gas prices go down ten cents every week/two weeks. Ik oil prices don’t reflect inflation exactly but I think ken is right abt how things will settle before the 2024 elections which will have massive political implications
His comments make sense almost all the time. Investors should pay attention to his comments
thx
감사합니다. (= thank you)
well I am not necessarily agreeing nor disagreeing with Mr. Fisher, guarantee he knows a lot more than me on the subject. But he did forget to mention the Russo Ukraine war. And I only mention it because even though gasoline price has already inflated a lot, after the war started, gasoline on my area spike 40 cents USD after having held at about $3 per gallon USD for several weeks. Really disappointed me and I sure hope those Rbob gasoline producers ramp it up to bring down the price.
Ok look at bonds now
But, we still heading towards a recession?