Slowing But Growing: Why The U.S. Isn’t Headed For Recession | Prometheus Research

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  • Опубліковано 17 лис 2024

КОМЕНТАРІ • 84

  • @tatianastarcic
    @tatianastarcic Місяць тому +56

    Stability is being challenged by economic uncertainty, housing issues, foreclosures, global volatility, and the lasting effects of the pandemic. To regain stability and drive growth, all sectors must act swiftly to address concerns around rising inflation, slow growth, and trade disruptions.

    • @avamadison-r9p
      @avamadison-r9p Місяць тому +1

      Consider hiring financial advisors, estate planners or tax experts. They can provide specialized knowledge and help you navigate complex financial decisions.

    • @maiadazz
      @maiadazz Місяць тому +2

      Having an investment advisor is currently the best way to approach the stock market. I was going alone, but it wasn't working. I've been working with an advisor for a while now, and last year, I achieved over 85% capital growth minus dividends

    • @michaelstrawberry
      @michaelstrawberry Місяць тому +1

      How do I reach out to a financial advisor, my portfolio has been struggling since 2022 and I’ve been holding on by the skin of my teeth.

    • @maiadazz
      @maiadazz Місяць тому +1

      I've shuffled through investment coaches and yes, they can be positively impactful to an individual's portfolio, but do your due diligence to find a coach with grit, one that withstood the 08' crash. For me, “Sophia Maurine Lanting” turned out to be better and smarter than all the advisors I ever worked with till date, I’ve never met anyone with as much conviction.

    • @saraFinn-u6g
      @saraFinn-u6g Місяць тому +1

      She appears to be well-educated and well-read. I ran a Google search for her name and came across her website; thank you for sharing.

  • @roseyfischer
    @roseyfischer Місяць тому +71

    I’ve been hearing mixed things. There’s no denying growth has slowed, but a lot of sectors are still doing okay. I mean, unemployment’s low, and consumer spending is holding up better than I expected

    • @Andres_853
      @Andres_853 Місяць тому +1

      True, but inflation’s still a concern. I think the fear of a recession is more about uncertainty than actual data. Things like rising interest rates and global issues make people nervous, but it doesn't mean we're headed for a collapse

    • @mariadrukker2557
      @mariadrukker2557 Місяць тому

      I agree. It seems like more of a slowdown, not a crash. This is where portfolio management really becomes important. With everything in flux, having the right balance in your investments makes a difference

    • @Kseniaramesh
      @Kseniaramesh Місяць тому

      Exactly! My advisor, Joseph Nick Cahill, has been emphasizing that point for a while. He’s always talking about being ready for volatility without pulling back too much. He’s shown me how to stay in the game while minimizing risk

    • @camela8445Mar
      @camela8445Mar Місяць тому

      That’s the key, right? You don’t want to panic and pull everything out. But you also don’t want to be overly aggressive if things slow down.

    • @Kseniaramesh
      @Kseniaramesh Місяць тому

      Well he was who you call when you need to achieve something at a given time in terms of finance and business. His strategy is to keep a diversified portfolio, but he’s also been making slight adjustments based on market signals. Nothing drastic, just steady moves that position us for growth without overexposure

  • @GreenNutGuy
    @GreenNutGuy Місяць тому +15

    Gdp was strong up even to the beginning of the past 3 recessions. It not a very reliable indicator in my view.

    • @benjaminwlang
      @benjaminwlang Місяць тому +5

      Government spending counts towards GDP. I think the US does a hundred billion deficit spending every 100 days give or take. Because of this GDP isn't an accurate reflection of productivity or actual value produced. The economy is being propped up.

    • @TheNinoconde
      @TheNinoconde Місяць тому +3

      Exactly. Benchmark revisions will revise those numbers down next year but by then we'll be halfway through the recession. 😅

    • @rodrigotroncoso3374
      @rodrigotroncoso3374 Місяць тому

      ​@@benjaminwlanga hundred every 3 months??? Try bettter 1 trillion of debt

  • @kish2934
    @kish2934 Місяць тому +9

    Felix, replacing Jack is a tall order but you’re doing great.

  • @SzymonStas
    @SzymonStas Місяць тому +2

    I am a simple man. I see unemployment rising into a rate cutting cycle, I see a recession coming. I keep it simple. I applaud the people who try to track all the data, assuming that the data is correct, and try to model the largest, most complex economy in the world. That's a very, very hard thing to do with any confidence, but Aahan seems pretty confident.

  • @JohnSina18
    @JohnSina18 Місяць тому +9

    Recession? More like richsession

  • @michaelconn1876
    @michaelconn1876 Місяць тому +6

    He is saying the words really really strong conzzzumer but his chard shows a descending blue line representing conzzzumer spending. What am I missing here? 🤷‍♂️🤔

  • @jingmu1289
    @jingmu1289 Місяць тому

    Great charts and analysis! Thanks for sharing!

  • @manueldrum
    @manueldrum Місяць тому

    The recession scare is surreal and the market is really panicking at this moment and I'm worried what effect this frenzy could have on my portfolio of about 80k. Could you make any recommendations on how I could preserve my portfolio during this period and also make profit from the market situation?

    • @JasonB.Chisolm
      @JasonB.Chisolm Місяць тому

      Well, this could be a very good time to make profit from the market. But because it's a frantic period, it's often best you employ the service of a financial advisor. I was up almost 90% during the COVID crash because I was working with one.

    • @LindaL.Fielder
      @LindaL.Fielder Місяць тому

      I had a similar experience. A financial advisor could really help you re-adjust and identify blindspots that you yourself do not notice, like mine did in advising me during COVID on how the pandemic will shape things, and I made it out big and still make up to at least 20k in dividend per month.

    • @KarenJ.Mancia
      @KarenJ.Mancia Місяць тому

      Wow, that's incredible. Could you recommend who you work with? I really could use some help at this moment please.

    • @LindaL.Fielder
      @LindaL.Fielder Місяць тому

      My CFA ’’ Stacy Lynn Staples, a renowned figure in her line of work. I recommend researching her credentials further. She has many years of experience and is a valuable resource for anyone looking to navigate the financial market..

    • @CharlesT.Foster
      @CharlesT.Foster Місяць тому

      Thanks, i did a quick web search and i found Sharon, i hope she responds to my mail.

  • @patrickgamache9935
    @patrickgamache9935 Місяць тому +4

    Maybe he should look at 1929 with the stock market. All the layoffs and the two reverse yield curve. The united states is in recession now. I think he's totally wrong. I am a plumber, and I can figure this out.

    • @shines22
      @shines22 Місяць тому +2

      Yes things are falling apart. Also all time high credit card debt. Debt is out of control on all levels.

  • @NickyHardy97
    @NickyHardy97 6 днів тому

    He is looking and focusing on lagging indicators. By the time he realises we are in a recession it’s already priced in to the bond and equity market

  • @georgesiew6203
    @georgesiew6203 Місяць тому

    The US economy won't budge for the simple reasons that
    1) Consumers won't stop spending money regardless of their long term situation.
    2) Employers won't fire people on mass short of a big shock.
    All of this means neither Consumers or Employers are doing a good job of long term planning. They have all been trained by the government that they don't need to plan for the long term. Without planning and foresight recession is only going to come via the forcing of reality. That is a slow but exponentially compounding forced. It is sort of like you can not save for retirement at all and the neither you or the economy will feel it for the next 30 years but the day comes when you will.

  • @Buboes1
    @Buboes1 Місяць тому +2

    Great charts and very informative Guess thank you both.

  • @-Nick-T
    @-Nick-T Місяць тому

    weve been in a recession for years

  • @georgeorwell3501
    @georgeorwell3501 Місяць тому

    We are already in a depression for the normal people.

  • @mmmom6469
    @mmmom6469 Місяць тому

    Buy now

  • @user-bc9tp6tu4b
    @user-bc9tp6tu4b Місяць тому

    This guy is book smart definitely not street smart probably can’t drive well but really good at chemistry

  • @tibsyy895
    @tibsyy895 Місяць тому

    Could you give us this detailed chart analysis and data at least once every months? Would be much appreciated by the whole community! Many thanks!

  • @adaylateacoinshort
    @adaylateacoinshort Місяць тому

    index will die, stock picking makes a return

  • @mattanderson6672
    @mattanderson6672 Місяць тому

    Thanks

  • @michaelkwon3722
    @michaelkwon3722 Місяць тому

    When I see major store closing, its a sign and job opportunities decline I worry but not as bad as I thought, lets just wait to c what happens in 2025,because I've heard its going to get worse, and by 2026 its gonna b a doozy!!!

  • @racerx2580
    @racerx2580 Місяць тому

    I'll bet you $1,000 that it DOES.

  • @michaelz2525
    @michaelz2525 Місяць тому +4

    That thumbnail gonna age like a fine bottle of milk!!! Nobody reading the data 📉 guess ? Sounds like CNBC

  • @tibsyy895
    @tibsyy895 Місяць тому

    Recesion in maybe 9-12 months!

  • @jacqueshowell6874
    @jacqueshowell6874 Місяць тому +8

    Everyone talking about recession and it never comes...stop spreading fear

    • @GreenNutGuy
      @GreenNutGuy Місяць тому +2

      @@jacqueshowell6874 it'll definitely never happen. Never ever again.

    • @BMWWolf
      @BMWWolf Місяць тому +2

      Yeah crazy out of control fiscal spending will definitely never come home to roost

    • @charleswheatley4614
      @charleswheatley4614 Місяць тому

      Lol, puppets don't know what to be afraid of just who is telling them to be afraid. Bunch of clown talking heads

    • @jcgoogle1808
      @jcgoogle1808 Місяць тому

      It only hasn't happened because this economy is artificially propped up by fiscal abuse to try to buy an election..
      Good presentation.
      1. 6:20 The GDP Deflator is, I assume, the proper term for P in QTM where M x V = P x Y = Nominal GDP
      You can't say it (P) is the "price" of goods if Y is the value of goods,.. because the math and the units wouldn't work out.
      P has to be an Index,.. a unitless ratio,.. as opposed to a price in dollars because then the price in dollars times the value in dollars would give dollars^2.
      Although I'm not sure how he combined his 2.1% real GDP growth to the 2.7% Deflator shown in the chart to get 2.7% nominal GDP.
      The GDP Deflator would be Nominal GDP growth / real GDP growth.
      If the GDP Deflator is 1.027,.. 1.027 x 2.1% is 2.16,.. not 2.7%.
      Maybe I missed something.
      2. 12:30 On Government Spending he makes the mistake of thinking solely in terms of changes rather than the absolute values.
      Paraphrasing,.. he says "there's a misconception that there's fiscal dominance and the government deficit spending is propping up the economy",.. and then shows that the changes in deficit spending aren't contributing to the growth in GDP.
      Wrong for 2 reasons.
      A. imagine if the fiscal deficits, which are between 6 to 10% of GDP, were eliminated.
      If consumption and investment were the only things contributing to GDP growth, and deficit spending was removed,.. then GDP growth would go negative by about 6%.
      B. Or in absolute terms,.. this deficit spending is $2 to $ trillion per year. If we didn't have the deficit spending,.. GDP would be around $23 trillion as opposed to $25 trillion.
      We'd be on a different trajectory of economic growth.
      This unnecessary unprecedented $2 to $3 trillion deficit spending,.. this spending 50% MORE in 2021, 22, 23, 24,... years after the pandemic is over than was spent the year before it started was just outright incompetentcorrupt vote buying criminal fiscal abuse.
      It pounded financial shocks waves, record inflation, record interest rates and housing prices,.. etc and the inevitable destruction of US financial balance sheet and income statement in its wake to the point that if they try to with draw the deficit spending,.. it would send the US into a deep hard landing recession.
      Worse,.. the interest payments on the debt are now a large portion of the annual budget.
      The Fed is stuck between a rock and a hard place,.. such that if they lower rats too quickly to try to reduce the interest expense,.. the economy could heat up too quickly and inflation reignite.
      What will probably eventually happen is,.. the Fed will have to start buying a significant part of the record level debt now having to be generated each year because of the unnecessary fiscal abuse shock wave and enact some kind of yield curve control,.... otherwise the bond vigilantes will drive yields and interest rates on everything to the moon.
      There is absolutely fiscal dominance.
      We're in a fiscal/gpvernment spendingshithole.
      And this economy is being propped up with this fiscalinsanity.
      All caused because demcorats decided it was ok tosteal from tax payers and use their money as their own personal DNC campaign slush fund.
      They're deficit spending say
      7% of GDP,. generating about 1 to 3% GDP growth,.. giving us an entrenched structural inflation rate of 4 to 5%.
      A normal healthy economy would have,..
      0 to 2% Deficit Spending while the private sector growing investment 2 to 3% of GDP each year (at least the rate of inflation) generating 3 to 5% GDP growth.
      But I like the way he breaks down GDP to look at the individual components to try to generate some kind of useful LEI.

    • @jacqueshowell6874
      @jacqueshowell6874 Місяць тому +1

      @@GreenNutGuy they been talking about recession for over 6 months the market finally turns green and I guess they got stuck with some short positions and they turn it up with the fear

  • @CraigLeiphart
    @CraigLeiphart Місяць тому +24

    The US economy is already in recession. Now rate cut will ignite inflation. The banks will tighten even more, all consumer and corporate credit lending. This is the beginning of a deflationary period for your assets. Stocks markets will decline, and stock values disappear in a blink of the eye. Businesses will begin layoffs in earnest which will soon be reflected in the unemployment rate and unemployment claims, to further solidify the recession. In fact, Now that the FED cut rates in Sept, it will signify that the Titanic is going under, and it will suck everything down. Retail and housing sales will truly decline as consumer hold off their purchases. The inverted yield curve will then turn positive, but remember, certain assets like stocks and Crypto’s acts as a hedge. Long & short-term trading is generally safer, allowing investors to weather market volatility. I have managed to grow a nest egg of around 100k to a decent 432k in the space of a few months... I'm especially grateful to Adriana Jensen whose deep expertise and traditional trading acumen have been invaluable in this challenging, ever-evolving financial landscape.

    • @WhitneyMorgan04
      @WhitneyMorgan04 Місяць тому

      Access to good information is what we investors needs to progress financially and generally in life. this is a good one and I appreciate

    • @SamMcNaughton01
      @SamMcNaughton01 Місяць тому

      This is why it is advisable to connect with a true market strategist in order to avoid missing such opportunity and maintain steady gains.

    • @TaylorMorton-j2n
      @TaylorMorton-j2n Місяць тому

      The internet is filled. with so many useful information. about Adriana Jensen.

    • @PriscillaFleet
      @PriscillaFleet Місяць тому

      Thanks for keeping it light and real at the same time. Much needed for us traders in times like these!

    • @SusanBrousseau-o2i
      @SusanBrousseau-o2i Місяць тому

      She appears to be well-educated and well-read. I ran a Google search on her name and came across her website; thank you for sharing.

  • @I_Love_Figs
    @I_Love_Figs Місяць тому

    next up: how to age tuna sushi in a compost dumpster in summer