Asset Bubble Crescendo Until 2027 Collapse When U.S. Treasury Market Implodes, Argues Mel Mattison
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- Опубліковано 1 лип 2024
- Forward Guidance is sponsored by VanEck. Learn more about the VanEck Morningstar Wide MOAT ETF (MOAT) at vaneck.com/MOATFG.
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Mel Mattison’s book www.melmattison.com/quoz
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Timestamps:
00:00 Introduction
00:37 Mel's Background
04:13 he More Debt Is Created, The More Investors Want It (Story of Past 50 Years)
06:59 Mel On Gold And Stock Market
11:31 Inflating The Debt Away: The 1940s Playbook
14:30 The Pre-Bretton Woods "Sterling Standard"
17:36 Offshore Dollars ("Eurodollars")
24:23 The Debt Spiral: Comparison to 1920s
27:56 VanEck Ad
28:38 Why Now?
37:01 Great Depression
43:24 Social Security = Ticking Time Bomb, Mel Argues
48:30 Isn't There A Self-Regulating Cycle Where Rising Bond Yields Slow Down The Economy (Which In Turn Creates Demand For Duration & Cash)?
59:14 Timing: 2027
01:04:52 Social Security Funding
01:17:01 Gold and Inflation
01:28:22 Mel's Book, QUOZ
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Disclaimer: Nothing discussed on Forward Guidance should be considered as investment advice. Please always do your own research & speak to a financial advisor before thinking about, thinking about putting your money into these crazy markets. - Розваги
Forward Guidance is sponsored by Van Eck. Learn more about the VanEck Morningstar Wide MOAT ETF (MOAT) at vaneck.com/MOATFG
I own it.
Superlative synopis. Thanks. 😊
Thank you gentlemen, Amazing insights!
It's fascinating when everyone looks at the same data & derives different conclusions. The host has an in-depth knowledge adding to the debate. My 2c is that although deflation is still a danger, inflation is the way forward. The Central banks & govts are stop gapping any system cracks as we adjust to the new regime of fiscal dominance. I believe we're at where they wanted to be last decade. Productive infrastructure builds are coming & debts inflated away. However, negotiating USA rival's in the BRICs is still the wild card.
It’s amazing really. We have a financial crisis, caused by greedy, reckless financial institutions. Congress passes legislation requiring those institutions to be less greedy and reckless. The institutions then lobby to have those restrictions removed, usually in the name of “remaining competitive”. This leads to another financial crisis. It’s completely predictable, and we have been doing this dance since the Great Depression almost 100 years ago.
Agree; the rules should be applicable to all banks - big or small. First; very few meaningful laws are passed and then this cycle of doing-undoing seems to support deregulation risking the economy and the faith in banks.
I believe using an investing advisor isn’t a terrific idea. In the midst of the 2008 financial crisis, I was literally experiencing horrible dreams before I spoke with an advisor. In conclusion, I was able to increase my initial investment from $320k to almost $2.5 million in 2011 with the aid of my advisor, and I later bought my first investment property.
I’ve actually been looking into advisors lately, the news I’ve been seeing in the market hasn’t been so encouraging. who’s the person guiding you?
Certainly, there are a handful of experts in the field. I've experimented with a few over the past years, but I've stuck with Carol Vivian Constable for about five years now, and her performance has been consistently impressive.She’s quite known in her field, look-her up.
Thanks a lot for this suggestion. I needed this myself, I looked her up, and I have sent her an email. I hope she gets back to me soon.
Overall, 51% of traders think this year would favor stocks, mutual funds, and other equity-based investments, despite Treasury yields and other safer cash-like investments paying big. I’m looking for opportunities in the market that could fetch me $1m ahead of retirement in 2024.
That's up noticeably from 41% in the fourth quarter again, despite shaky-looking markets, I'll suggest you speak with a market expert before investing; My two cents
You're right, I was able to diversify my $550K portfolio with the aid of an investment advisor, I was able to generate over $250K in net profit from high dividend generating equities, ETFs, and bonds.
You're right. With the help of an investment advisor, I diversified my $550K portfolio and generated over $250K in net profit from high dividend equities, ETFs, and bonds.
You're right. With the help of an investment advisor, I diversified my $550K portfolio and generated over $250K in net profit from high dividend equities, ETFs, and bonds.
Working with a financial advisor has been a game-changer for me. They provided invaluable insights and tailored strategies that aligned perfectly with my risk tolerance and financial objectives. With their support, I've seen significant growth in my investments and gained confidence in my financial future.
I foresee a recession lasting 2-3 years, and if inflation continues to surge, the Federal Reserve will likely raise interest rates soon. Inflation is causing various issues worldwide, such as food shortages, scarcities of diesel and heating fuel, and significant spikes in housing prices, leading to a potential financial market crash. This global downturn could have long-lasting repercussions. Given the current inflation rate of approximately 9%, my main worry is how to optimize my savings and retirement fund, which has remained stagnant at around $300,000, yielding almost no gains for quite some time.
Safest approach i feel to tackle it is to diversify investments. By spreading investments across different asset classes, like bonds, real estate, and international stocks, they can reduce the impact of a market meltdown. its important to seek the guidance of an expert
A lot of folks downplay the role of advisors until being burnt by their own emotions. I remember couple summers back, after my lengthy divorce, I needed a good boost to help my business stay afloat, hence I researched for licensed advisors and came across someone of utmost qualifications. She's helped grow my reserve notwithstanding inflation, from $275k to $850k.
@@EthanBrowne451 How can I participate in this? I sincerely aspire to establish a secure financlal future and am eager to participate. Who is the driving force behind your success?
Her name is. ‘JENNIFER LEA JENSON’. Just research the name. You’d find necessary details to work with a correspondence to set up an appointment.
I just looked her up on the internet and found her webpage with her credentials. I wrote her a outlining my financial objectives and planned a call with her
Jack is doing an amazing job with thoughtful questions, he lets the speaker speaks without interruption and jab in counter-balance views and solid questions at appropriate time. Great job!
and then goes on for just a slong speaking about how his guest is wrong often expressing certain amounts of ignorance even if the guest is wrong. However the Guest is very good at playing 'yes but'
It is one of the places that really tries to make the guest articulate their position and its extremely informative. Hats off to you guys, great job Jack and Mel!
True but he doesn't do this (counterpoint with disagreements) with famous guests. He did this with this guy since he is more unknown. Wish he'd be more consistent -e.g. Lizz Ann from Schwab's interview
@@peblopadro gotcha! Now we know Mel's work!
The people that said the debt was untenable 40 years ago weren't wrong. We paid for it in devalued currency, decreased wages, and fourand a half generations of kids that live off their parents and the government.
You also paid in four and a half generations with no kids. We'll see in the coming decades how that works out.
How did you get four and a half generations in 40 years?
@@kevoreilly6557 two and a half generations were already alive 40 years ago. Silent, Baby, and half of Gen X. The other half of Gen X were still kids.
Yep endebting the citizens long term is what the government does. Banks were bailed out but not the american citizens. America is in a big financial mess.34+ trillion $ deficit..! Who will fix the financial crisis in the Us? The rich american and jewish oligarchs living outside the Us and having their stash on offshore accounts? The Us could start cleaning that Swamprat nest in Washington Dc and repatriate that untaxed money from those offshore accounts. The billions$/ trillions$ will help the struggling american folks. Poor people living on the streets and other working people living on a weekly paycheck to survive is a real joke in the wealthiest country in the world.
yeah, we paid in inflation.
Your guest is spot on. I know it's a hard pill to swallow.
Definitley agree this site is WOKE ECONOMICS
How does a person (or country) go bankrupt? Gradually, then suddenly. The last 50 years was the gradually and the next 5 is the suddenly...
The economic crisis and downturn are all the signs of 2008 market crash 2.0, so my question is do I still save in the US dollar or is it okay to move all emergency and savings to precious metals?
In light of the ongoing global economic crisis, it is crucial for everyone to prioritize investing in diverse sources of income that are not reliant on the government. This includes exploring opportunities in stocks, gold, silver, and digital currencies. Despite the challenging economic situation, it remains a favorable time to consider these investments.
The pathway to substantial returns doesn't solely rely on stocks with significant movements. Instead, it revolves around effectively managing risk relative to reward. By appropriately sizing your positions and capitalizing on your advantage repeatedly, you can progressively work towards achieving your financial goals. This principle applies across various investment approaches, whether it be long-term investing or day trading.
I agree, that's the more reason I prefer my day to day investment decisions being guided by an advisor, seeing that their entire skillset is built around going long and short at the same time both employing risk for its asymmetrical upside and laying off risk as a hedge against the inevitable downward turns, coupled with the exclusive information/analysis they have, it's near impossible to not out-perform, been using my advisor for over 2years+ and I've netted over 2.8million..
I think this is something I should do, but I've been stalling for a long time now. I don't really know which firm to work with; I feel they are all the same but it seems you’ve got it all worked out with the firm you work with so i surely wouldn’t mind a recommendation.
I definitely share your sentiment about these firms. Finding financial advisors like Marisa Breton Dollard who can assist you shape your portfolio would be a very creative option. There will be difficult times ahead, and prudent personal money management will be essential to navigating them.
You missed one big point on why we cannot turn into Japan and run 220% debt to gdp....the US no longer manufactures goods, we have massive trade deficits and the rest of the world will not be willing to take our dollars
Ok, but they'll unwillingly take our dollar then. 🤣
We certainly can. In fact I think that is exactly what is going to happen. This will cause us to go into stagflation like we have never seen. I am ready for it. I am not just ready for that scenario. I am also ready for a massive crash, a nasty recession, or even a depression. Now I am just waiting. We are getting very close to the end of our current monitary system..
Well we are trying to reshore our manufacturing base . Just let us drill for the oil that we need so that we can build everything else that we are going to need you.Green dummies are too stupid.
There was only one minor mention of BRICS, in regards to gold here. BRICS has the potential to upend everything America attempts. And that would be good for the majority of the earths population. Too bad murica, you lose....
@@gmw3083 I think you give the BRICs way too much credit. I think next we get a liquidity, collateral, and credit crisis all at the same time. The whole world will be in a depression. Yes, this will make folks just trade commodities on their local currency instead of the US Dollar faster but you might be missing the fast that American's are the biggest consumers. If they stop standing (which is already happening). That will affect the whole world. So America will lose... it will be bad, but it is going to much worse for everyone else. To put it another away a nasty recession for America and a depression everywhere else. If America get a depression (very possible) the rest of the world is going to be very scary. I also, think you are way too bullish gold. You can't eat gold. And gold is not a good barter tool should the currencies collapse. Gold is a good hedge to inflation and a store of wealth. BTC is better on both of those things and it is not crazy heavy, hard to store. It is also no manipulated by central banks and government. There is a reason it is is the best performing asset of all time.
Jack this is your best guest in a really really long time. Excellent thesis and discussion gentlemen. This is brilliant. Thank you.
☝👍
My ONLY counterargument is US foreign policy which is poking everybody to a war that eventually will start a world conflict. With that the outcome is even less predictable because it could be even much worse for US or potentially solve most of these issues for few more decades.
Love how the host gives feedback and puts discussion back on path. Most guests are afraid of insulting guest. Truth is paramount, and I love it!
I’ve been friends with Mel for 35 years. That said, I’d like to correct one fact Mr. Mattison. Social security is not 6%. It’s 12.4%, split between employer and employee. If self employed, then you pay the full 12.4%, however 50% of the tax can offset income above the line to AGI. 🤓
I think Jack missed the point with the SS trust fund running out. The net trust fund outflows are already costing the federal government because they have to pay back the trust fund to pay the outflows since they already borrowed and spent everything in the fund. The SS trust owns IOUs from the feds that are payable on demand -- all previous net inflows have been borrowed and spent by the feds. The increasing pace of outflows is the issue because it means the feds have to borrow to fund those outflows since the feds don't have enough other income to pay back the SS trust fund. When the trust fund runs dry, if it causes a political event, it will also likely create a market event for psychological reasons if the devaluation has not already been priced in; if the devaluation gets priced in, it will either hasten the decline or be shocking enough that DC gets its act together and cuts out the fat.
Bottom line is they need to stop giving SS to millionaires and billionaires. You would think they would be embarrassed to take it. But no. Good example of the moral status of the country.
Then, get busy and do the hard thinking of more ways to fund the needs of seniors. 🇺🇸
I am at the beginning of my "investment journey", planning to put 85K into dividend stocks so that I will be making up to 30% per year in dividend returns. Any advice?
Adding JEPI and JEPQ are smart additions in my opinion. As for staying committed to higher-risk investments, it's all about balancing your risk tolerance with your long-term goals.
The market is not necessarily a rollercoaster if you know your way around the market, there are various opportunities in the present market to accrue good profit, If you are not too savvy with the market, just buy and hold on strong companies with good earnings, or consult with advisors on ETFs and actively managed funds. that’s what works for my spouse and I. We've made over 30% capital growth minus dividends.
I've been looking to get one, but have been kind of relaxed about it. Could you recommend your advis0r? I'll be happy to use some help.
Rachel Sarah Parrish is the licensed advisor I use. Just search the name. You’d find necessary details to work with to set up an appointment.
Thank you for the lead. I searched her up, and I have sent her an email. I hope she gets back to me soon.
During this bubbles I feel investors should be focusing on under-the-radar stocks, and considering the current rollercoaster nature of the stock market, Because 35% of my $270k portfolio comprises of plummeting stocks which were once revered and i don't know where to go here out of devastation.
Safest approach i feel to tackle it is to diversify investments. By spreading investments across different asset classes, like bonds, real estate, and international stocks, they can reduce the impact of a market meltdown. its important to seek the guidance of an expert
A lot of folks downplay the role of advlsors until being burnt by their own emotions. I remember couple summers back, after my lengthy divorce, I needed a good boost to help my business stay afloat, hence I researched for licensed advisors and came across someone of utmost qualifications. She's helped grow my reserve notwithstanding inflation, from $275k to $850K.
This is definitely considerable! think you could suggest any professional/advisors i can get on the phone with? I'm in dire need of proper portfolio allocation.
...MICHELE KATHERINE SINGH is the licensed advisor I use. Just research the name. You’d find necessary details to work with a correspondence to set up an appointment.
My needs are kind of unique and complex. I'll contact her nonetheless, and I hope I'm able to make something out of it.
Best speaker in a long while. Please have him back again!
I agree the market is going to crash because people are broke can't spend and small businesses and retail locations are closing but knowing when it is going to crash is another thing all together
It's crashing now! Right before our very eyes! Fjb traitor to Anerica and true Americans! Fjb!
Hi All, thanks for any and all comments/interest - even those who disagree with me. Jack, I really appreciated the opportunity to speak with you and express my views to your generally well-informed audience. Best, Mel
Jack needs to let the guest talk more when he has such a great guest.
The interest on US debt is now to the point we cannot afford basic things like defense, SS, Medicare. This is how you know the game is almost up. Every day is worse than the prior day. This is just like the character in Office Space.
Interest is already 25% of receipts. That’s emerging market, IMF booking a plane ticket sort of levels
I can't imagine subscribing to this channel when the host is just like nope you're wrong, it's like talking to my dad about this. When you're used it being ignored you just sort of get comfortable.
Well said. And the longer it goes on the less the US Dollar actually is
the fed can always "afford" mandatory spending. the more privatized the industry the more inflation
Planned perhaps?
This was a great interview!
it really wasn't, good guest though.
Great guest and he is going to be correct
The one point I will remember the most about this guest is the one where he said "the yield curve isn't really inverted, if you look at where mortgages are". I can't believe I never looked at it that way.
Thank you Mel and Jack. As a layman, this is one of the best interviews on Blockworks. There was an actual discussion!
So refreshing to hear someone else talk about the exact points that I've been trying to scream from the rooftop the past year. Starting to feel less crazy hearing more and more discuss these dynamics
What a pleasure to see an intelligent conversation between well informed people. Thank you both 🙏
This show was amazing. I'm so thankful, to both of you. Keep up the great work
The fact that large economies are dumping U.S dollars, alternatives to using the dollar for international settlements are emerging. because of sanctions being placed on "unfriendly" nations, BRICS Bank where governments can trade in their own currency, hoarding valuable commodities and Fed policy that manipulates interest rates / Q.E., etc..
GREAT interview!
Mel is amazing in his broad knowledge of markets and macro. He calmly answers all questions... Smart guy.
Always great interviews Jack 👍🏻 - but what an interesting one. Mel has one of the most compelling suggestions on how we’re going from the old normal to whatever “crazy” that will eventually have to follow with this trajectory of ours. ⭐️
Forward Guidance you guys are just great. Thanks for your work ))
Getting the facts correct would go a long way in establishing credibility
Marshal Plan Implementation;
The U.S. government did not give money directly to the participating countries so that they could buy whatever they thought they needed. Instead the U.S. delivered the goods and provided services, mainly transatlantic shipping, to the participating governments, which then sold the commodities to businesses and individuals who had to pay the dollar value of the goods in local currency ("counterparts") into so-called ERP Special Accounts that were set up at the country's central bank. This way of operation held three advantages: the provision of U.S. goods to Europe without European dollar payments helped to narrow the dollar gap that strangled European reconstruction; the accumulated funds could be used for investments in long-term reconstruction (as happened in France and Germany) or for paying off a government's war debts (as in Great Britain); and the payments of the goods in local currencies helped to limit inflation by taking these funds temporarily out of circulation while they were held in the Special Accounts.[
Good stuff. Thanks.
Takes nads to put a time frame on a call. Bravo.
Removing the cap on social security taxable income would extend that timetable way out, and very politically viable. There are solutions to all this.
I know you're trying to be pragmatic and you're probably right. But stealing more of what people earned just to put a bandaid on decades completely criminal fiscal policy is just insult to injury.
It may be politically popular but it definitely isn’t politically viable IMO, those effected by raising the contribution cap have an outsized influence on politicians. Itll never be brought to the house floor let alone pass the house & senate
@@ryantyler4890We’ll see how the politicians feel when SS checks get cut by 25%.
just get rid of it. best outcome for the future.
@@smeff099 spoken like a true sociopath
Great discussion!!
This is the first time I have seen the host respond to the guests statements with exactly the same questions that were in my mind. Good job, Jack Farley.
So fascinating. Great insight and interview
Hes saying that the confidence in the dollar is running out. We can borrow to pay for anything, technically, but something has to give and that will be the dollar losing value quickly
Thanks Jack
Great pod. Will look into Mel's book.
Jack, it’s good to question/push your guests but keep your personal opinions out of the interview.
Thank you for saying this. This interviewer is very off-putting.
I disagree, I think that's what makes his disca little more interesting than others and I think the guests know his style by now.
very good insights thank you !
Great guest, great conversation, cheers!
Great interview 👍
Kudos...one of the more Intelligent economic discussions on UA-cam! Enjoyed it!
Just a heads up…gold has outperformed the S&P the 24 years. And now with deficit spending going parabolic I expect Gold to outperform the S&P the next 20 years
And BTC is the best performing asset of all time.
@@bpb5541except it hasn't even outperformed NVDA over the last decade
If something has been outperforming for 24 years, it's time to get out of it and into something that has not been already fairly valued.
Best interview of 2024, thank you!
Great interview
Mel Mattison thank you for your time
Amazing interview, Mel is right on
Interesting, thank you.
Great informative video, great guest.
Masterful, your dialectic skill is, Jack.
Great interview great guest
Great guest!
Great guest Jack.
Mel's explanation is clear. Time will tell if he's right. His thesis has similarities to David Hunter's, though his explanation is much more detailed. Thank you for this video.
Excellent!!!
Very good fellas
I think the sole burning question is that who or what will replace the dollar AND do you think the US will just allow the dollar be replaced without any chaos? I have heard all the arguments and timing about the dollar’s demise but no one has been able to make a valid argument about who & what will replace the US dollar or Euro Dollar?
People think the entrenched network effects of the dollar are just going to magically disappear. It doesn’t work that way. There is no other currency on Earth that could even theoretically replace the dollar as global reserve currency, no matter how badly it is managed by the US gov. Not gold. Not bitcoin. Not the Euro. Not the Yuan. Not anything the IMF could come up with. Nothing. This horse and pony show can keep on going for decades to come.
I do find it odd Mel is not calling for WWIII along with his thesis. He's not ruling it out just saying it's not required. About replacing the dollar, it would probably be whichever system appears most stable - like he was talking about higher amounts of gold acting as part of an anchor - of course this would include a multitude of other factors.
Anchor future money against hard assets So some bucket of gold, silver, uranium, lithium, whatever is real and not just paper
Saudi Arabia gets paid in yen for 10% of their total exports in LNG, Russia China trade is at 20% rubel-yen and quickly rising, and there is talk about BRICS starting up their own currency for international trade between those countries. I dont know about that, but what the dollar is going to be replaced by, if it fails, is what the dollar once replaced, pound sterling, local currencies, and so on.
The weaponization of the dollar was a horrible strategic move, China is going to run away from it, they already sold 53 billion of american bond securites this last month, and with the tradewar started, US inflation is naturally going to increase. The US have exported inflation due to the petro-dollars status and US moving industry to china, but keeping the domestic market, a TV is now 50% cheaper, a microwave, a breadtoaster, so you get deflation, but if you print money it evens out, giving a superstrong economy for America, but when the trend starts to move backwards the opposite happens, you have to lower the quantity of dollars in existance and import inflation to the USA.
The trade-war will, naturally, cause America to import inflation, making need for the m1-m3 supply of money to decrease, or it will cause hyperinflation. And when you import inflation the reverse of exportation of the inflation would need to happen, shrink money supply and increase interest rates. And there lies the crux, will a unites states citizen allow his real income drop 30-60% to balance the equation out to be neutral?
If you are a american, explain this, why did you allow china to take over as the worlds industrial powerhouse? You sold your production capacity for some easy money and started to rent it, and now you cant afford to rent it so you put up tariffs and trade barriers to avoid renting it... what even is that? Is it just "short-sighted economical gains and damn the next generation" - type of thinking?
A handful of digital currencies. CBDCs We will all be on digital assets. There won’t be a need for one “world currency”
Excellent guest.
Good work jack
I'm in !
Awesome! 👍🏻💛
I love this type of financial history content
Jack your 30 word fix for ss is already in effect by definition. Calling it is a trust fund is just a dressing up to make it sound better.
All these so-called analysts, researchers and experts never seem to call anything accurately.
I recall not one economist predicted 2008.
Some even claimed there was no problem even as things were blowing up in 2008.
That told me all I needed to know.
As good as it gets'... thanks Jack and Mel.
Jack, I’m a 72 y.o. former CTA, social psychologist, and statistician. As Mel said, and you are too young to appreciate this fact, that about every 40-50 years, commodities, especially the metals, have been at parity with equity indices. The reason the indexes have continued to go up is that as industry and technology change, the exchanges change the mix of the index. The other reason I believe Mel, is that we are facing increasing resource depletion, which will eventually lead to a massive rise in inflation barring a collapse in population and demand. After trading the markets for 50 years, nothing is out of the realm of possibility.
So would you say invest in commodities?
I'm always wary of the "there is a shortage of ..." line that pumpers keep using when trying to hype up the price of something.
There never really is a shortage of anything.
Outstanding interview! Just discovered your channel I'll be sure to lock in and watch it often. I particularly enjoyed the fact that the host was well versed and educated about financial National and global statistics. He frequently, but politely, challenges gas on a number of the guests statements. As part of the listing audience I really enjoyed that back and forth between the two as a hammered out either of their differences on a particular subject or hammered out their agreement. This is a very educational and very interesting video. Thank you to both of you thank you to both of you
Great interview you push not like most podcast
Felix, Art Hayes and David Hunter seem to all have similar views as this man going forward
What’s the accuracy of long term projections for social security, government debt and population?
I think to some degree the tulip bubble crashed because at the end of the day, they're just tulips 🌷 whereas The stock market represents revenue generating entities
Book sounds like a fun read!
29:13 Bond mkt yields to rise 31:44 YCC: more bills than coupons
Did I hear "MELT UP?" haha there is a David Hunter in him ...
Correct me if I’m wrong Jack but wouldn’t the bond market start to respond to more government debt sooner than a few years down the road. I mean it seems very obvious the government is currently trying to spend its way to a soft landing.
And you my friend... just hit on the real risk in the market that no one is really talking about. IMHO the short end gets slammed to zero very fast by the FED. We will be in a nasty recession which means the Goverment will need money to stimulate. Where do they get that money.. They get it by selling treasuries. But bond traders are going to want much higher yields in the middle to long end of the curve to take on the risk that is the massive 35 trillion debt we already have. History shows that during a recesssion debt doubles. Who the hell is going to lend the US Government money at these high levels without demanding a much higher yield. The problem with the higher yields that will be demanded will cause folks that need to refi (think businesses and CRE) get absolutly destroyed. This will cause the US and the rest of the world to go into a massive depression. The 10 year yield has broken out of its 40 year downtrend and is not uptending which means money is no longer free... like it has been for the last 20 years. This is the real risk. Should the Fed come in and be the buyer of last resort and montize the debt we get hyeprinflation or more specifically stagflation like we have never seen. I am count on it and am ready for it. The real trick is I could make money hand over fist but if it is in US Dollars it might not be worth anything if the dollar falls to zero. So as I make money I will buy assets that are outside of the US dollar... BTC, Gold and Silver... even if those are falling in price. Folks that are all in ... have all their money tied to the US Dollar might be in for a very rude awakening... when it dies and they roll out the CBDC wich is the exact reason why BTC is the best performing asset of all time. We might find that BTC at 70k a coin... is cheap. WE will see.
Another great guest Jack. Great job.
Can Mel post his 200 book reading list for us? (Or assure us it is all in the bibliography of his book, which I am looking forward to reading). I enjoyed his mixture of a measured style, making concessions to Jack's pushbacks while holding to a strong thesis.
Just bought quoz…looking forward to it.
Remember gold and silver is real money. How big was is the debt? Remind me agian how much USA borrows each month?
I wish his book was on audible!!!
Sounds like Ben Bernanke was right. "Can not ever allow deflation". Seems like this insinuates that hyperinflation has to happen to keep asset prices up.
Who would be buying govt bonds...other than govt?
The guy who designed the Bank of Enhland,( Soane ), is buried near where I live...
I met someone who knew Maynard Keynes. Virginia Woolfe's nephew Quentin Bell.
Good 1
Where is the guy from the picture?
When comparing Japan to the US, my question is, how does the role of the dollar as the world reserve currency play into the possible outcomes?
It doesn’t even require all the bank customers to request their money. Just a total asset request/withdrawal of 10% will do the trick
The guest brought some receipts. Makes sense to me
Wow, a true master class. He seems very smart, because I share many of those views.
I appreciated his summary of lesser-known financial history, like the ('WW1 - 1962') transition of reserve currency from £ to $.
A couple issues he may have been too polite to address:
1. He seems to leave out consideration that (more) sound money would not be good for current banking business. Seems they would lobby against such a final reform or outcome.
2. Also does mention a "balancing act" but he underplayed or didn't mention that 10 years or so of elevated inflation would result in COLA increases unless reported inflation data were reported less than actual inflation.
PS Based on the interview, Quon, the financial thriller seems like it will be intelligent and entertainingly evocative!
First time watching your podcast. Think Mattison is a great guest. Certainly gives people food for thought even if I don’t agree with all his points. My anticipated timing is different from his, as I’m looking at the UK/EU Brexit 10 year financial arrangement. Wondering what his inflation rate schedule is measuring as many ‘experts’ seem to calculate inflation differently.
The basics never change, however, what does change are the rules in the monetary games.
This discussion about gold being used as an anchor for paper currency is absolutely hilarious. Why on earth would it turn out differently than last time? I think we all know what asset fixes this
😂 I love how they go 90 minutes without saying the word and you call them out perfectly without saying the word😂😂..yea. let's talk about fantasy 25k gold but not address the real 70k elephant in the room😂
Ok ok I’ll say it …Bitcoin 😅
Thanks for the update. I bet those Fourprime token holders aren't too worried about the markets.
Thank you Jack & Mel.. very interesting discussion and perspective withstanding any dark swan showing up during these socially unstable time.
* Sidenote on SS - I believe currently some 7 million prime age males 24-55, 1 in 6, have defected from the labor market with no intent of seeking gainful employment. For women it’s less than 3M. If this trend continues it could certainly escalate the challenge.
Why so argumentative? Who's the expert, him or you?
Where was the argument.
I could not find it in the entire show.
That is Jack's friendly way of pushing back aka playing Devil's advocate. I think it makes his discussions quite interesting, because other hosts push back but Jack does it in a more detailed way.