Allan Lichtman: 2024 election hinges on four ‘key’ issues: Presidential historian | Vargas Reports
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- Опубліковано 6 вер 2024
- American University’s Allan Lichtman, who formulated 13 keys to the incumbent party winning the White House, says the Democrats’ switch to Vice President Kamala Harris loses three keys. But he tells “Elizabeth Vargas Reports” that four of his keys are still in play.
#2024election #kamalaharris #allanlichtman
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Every 4 years this man gets hate and he proves the haters wrong every time.
If you delay your prediction until just before the election it's not hard. Polls are clearly superior to this stuff. It doesn't even make sense as he's talking about it. Like he says Harris loses the incumbency key, but will benefit from lack of unrest or a foreign policy success. So she... is the incumbent? And we all know scandals don't matter in any predictable way right now. You can define any of these things any way you want and then make them point to a guess that, surprise, is in line with the polls.
He tells the truth as he sees it, quite remarkable.
9 out of 10. That's 90%.
He should just give his prediction, he's is going to grift for 6 months about who lost what key, what key is a half a key etc etc
Eventually, he’s going to admit Trump will win it. Sit back.
I modified your keys and used them for New Zealand Politics and it worked for every MMP election in New Zealand for the last 30 years, including the surprise outcome of 2017. Amazing.
The success of your modified keys is just a classic example of over-fitting the data. Nothing ground breaking or useful.
@@moneybags183 maybe. But we had a surprise result in 2017 where the incumbent won popular vote but didn’t win the election. This model predicted that.
😂
I've been doing similar things with UK politics.
all you have to do is generalize things enough. What exactly would qualify as a "scandal"? Would Kam replacing Biden with no primary be considered a "scandal"? Maybe if the Republicans impeached her for it then it becomes a scandal?
It would be prudent for the MSM media outlets to interview Allan Lichtman. He should be on Face the Nation, Meet the Press, 60 Minutes, MSNBC, CNN, etc. The dude works with facts, not wishful thinking or emotion. Numbers don't lie. I'm an artist (musician) and I'm all in for facts when it comes to things like this. Thanks for the clip.
These are not facts he is taking his own interpretation of events and making up some value from it
1,4, 9-13 are all obviously false. Now #3 has fallen too, and you can even make an argument against the two keys relating to the economy. You do the math.
@@Mark-kq6ch I offer my counterpoint:
- Key 4: RFK Jr.'s numbers are... wack. Maybe a little _too_ wack; his numbers are too inconsistent. And with Biden out and Harris (a younger candidate with more electorate excitement going for her) now in the race, that might just be enough for Kennedy's independent/undecided support to bleed even more.
- Key 8: From what I've seen, the pro-Palestine/Israel protests do not quite reach that level of sustain or violence; this is no Bonus Army of 1932, anti-Vietnam/CRM, or even BLM, let alone the Civil War.
- Key 9: What scandal? Hunter Biden? Nah, that's just Joe's kid doing his own thing, and Republican attempts to tie the whole thing to him is yet another one of those partisan politicking, and voters do not care for that sort of crap. As for the age thing, that didn't feel like a scandal to me like Watergate or Lewinsky are, just the Democrats being spineless as per usual. Him being old was very much a Captain Obvious(TM) thing.
- Key 13: At what level is Donald Trump considered as BROADLY charismatic as either Roosevelt, or even Ronald Reagan? Oh, he commands a loyal base, alright, but do you see droves of Trump Democrats like you would often see Reagan Democrats, or the broad approval of Dwight D. Eisenhower (who was courted by both parties in 48 and 52 before he chose the Republicans in the latter election)? Yeah no, he's nowhere near that level.
The media should bow down to Allan because he deals in “facts”? Seems like you’ve been drinking the Kool-Aid and mistaking it for political analysis. Numbers may not lie, but the way you interpret them can be pure fantasy.
Trump ❤
And now all ur indicators say trump
So yall tryna tell me theirs no foreign policy or military failure?
Total nonsense!!! He chose to conveniently ignore / disregard a number of those on his list of *keys*. Displaying a bias. He's guessing between two people, and he's gotten lucky. His list is a load of bunk if he himself isn't following it. He doesn't seem to want to follow his own system because that will likely make him very unpopular indeed and accused /labeled the Trump Lover & I think he'd prefer being wrong to being hated and seen as a Trump predictor. She isn't liked for good reason. This many people can't be wrong. Afghanistan was a catastrophe, a humiliating & shameful defeat to a global audience, Ukraine is a scam proxy war draining tax payers to fund criminal elites hedge funds with many civilians dead & the country destroyed, they funded Iran and orchestrated the attack as an excuse to wage war (my opinion but it's been a disaster and drain on the American tax payer), they lifted sanctions on Iran, they've done nothing about China spying on us, buying up everything here, controlling our politicians, infiltrating socialism & oppression, our military is weakened and we no longer have the personnel recruitment, man power or funded weaponry we once had, our funding of NATO and roll is an abused joke!!! We are not on stable terms with any powers of a potential threat, North Korea, Iran, Russia, China, they are all gunning for domination, influence & total annihilation of America, now more than ever. This man just omitted a number of his own keys!!! I think he just couldn't bare to be seen as Mister Trump's dedicated predictor in what I think. He'd rather be wrong than be seen as predicting Trump in the hostile climate we are currently in. This is all just my opinion.
This guy and his damn keys I tell u
It hinges on Wisconsin, Michigan, Pennsylvania, Arizona.
Politics are local.
Swing states are all that matters.
Political Science at the National Level doesn’t matter.
Messaging has to go local.
Georgia will be in play. Many Floridians think that Florid will be in play, but they are deluded.
@@guitarslim56 with Fani Willis, and the other disasters in Georgia, looks like they are ready to correct 2020.
Make it too big to rig in Georgia.
It’s going to be great.
Democratic followers will have to accept the results of a Democratic election. 😂😂😂
How about that.
No fear of losing democracy. What a freaking lie by the democrats.
True
over a hundred years of the keys prove you wrong
We only have to look at 2022 when in all those states you listed not a single statewide election for Senate, or Governor went to a Trump endorsed candidate. I thought Dr OZ wasn't all that extreme in Arizona Hobbs refused to debate Kari Lake most had concluded Lake was going to win. It really does come down to what party voters feel is doing a good job not so much the candidate.
Kamala is INDIAN
No my guy K.Harris is not Indian as you claim.
She is American, born in America to a Jamaican father and an Indian mother.
So, K. Harris is as much as and I am American, don't try to deceive people like your DonOld does.
"Today is today. And yesterday was today yesterday. Tomorrow will be today tomorrow. So live today, so the future today will be as the past today as it is tomorrow.” - Kamala Harris
That is so amazingly profound! It explains the "significance of the passage of time", one of the great mysteries of our day. Right alongside "the bus will go here and the bus will go there because that's what buses do". Mind-blowing!!!
@@may-julymoney295,😂 🎯
this has been debunked. She didn't say that
@@rob8582 “It is time for us to do what we have been doing. And that time is every day.” - Kamala Harris
@@rob8582 Would you bet on it?
Even the anchors' eyes are glazing over...
😂👍
Who cares? Lichtman’s model has accurately predicted every POTUS election prospectively since 1984 and it’s also retrospectively predicted every POTUS election going back to 1860. That’s one hell of a track record. He is correct in what he says and conventional wisdom is not.
Who _would_ their eyes be glazing over? Lichtman has a damn good record with these predictions.
@@Deined Had you just picked the betting odds favorit each time your record would have been just as good. His predictions when picking the underdog went right 50% of the time. so nothing impressiv about his predictions actually.
@@NoName-eq5oyAl gore was the only prediction he got wrong, and frankly gore should have won 2000 and only lost it because of a biased Supreme Court
He forgot The Simpsons key. It's wild how an episode of the Simpsons made in the year 2000 shows Lisa in a purple pants suit with pearls around her neck. And what Kamala Harris wears on inauguration day? A purple dress with pearls around her neck. Her sorority that she joined years ago their identity is wearing pearls. I don't know but only time will tell
I believe in his 13
Keys.
Not polls, not
“Experts”
With no success.
A lot can change in 3 weeks.
Which is why he says they he won't make a final prediction until after the DNC.
@@courtneybrubaker9738IT'S AFTER THE DNC
The botched Afghan withdrawal is not a military/foreign policy failure? Record inflation is not an economic failure?
Inflation is down to 3%
Recall in 1980s the double digit inflation, interest rates and unemployment: The Misery Index
I was wondering the same thing. Why did Lichtman ignore these 2 keys? And what about the social unrest from the Hamas sympathizers? I see 6 keys that Harris is losing, therefore based on Lichtman’s theory, Harris would lose the election.
Who was the president that got us INTO Afghanistan?
@@jesusacosta5176 from where...note that i bought gas and food this week.
Lichtmans toupee would win a gold medal in Paris
He uses it for his side gig, if it sees its shadow six more weeks of winter…
Trumpers don't like hearing the truth?
Like the democrats he doesn't even hide the deception with that area rug on hid head.
My prediction: this guy will get a better toup.
It’s his real hair.
Its his real hair
Sounds like Copy cat Kamala bribed him, so maybe he'll invest in a hair transplant.
3 weeks later and it's still his real hair btw
Thank you Professor Allan Lichtman. You have a proven method and record. Negative commenters are emotional and have no method.
I'm using his method and have calculated that 1,3,4,8-13 are all obviously false. You do the math.
He forgot about the Sahm rule triggering, and the short term economy being most likely in a recession during now to election time
NOW he should add a key for Senility That Would Normally Qualify You for a Nursing Home, i.e. Biden Senility Condition.
His keys work, I've watched and listened to this guy every election since 2004, and the one thing I'll say about this time is that he seems to have really become more partisan, his keys could be right, but he may not grant them as unbiased as before when he makes his final pick...he got a bad case of tds and now he's saying wild shit like "everyone feels the economy is doing great"...come on man
Nah. He's consistent with his partisan beliefs. But that hasn't impacted his prediction. I mean...he predicted Trump's months in advance
he predicted Trump and eveyone said he was nuts. How is he partisan????
1,3,4,8-13 are all obviously false.
He looks at the whole picture, but I do agree that he is downplaying the effects of inflation.
@@Mark-kq6chas well as 9 and 10 he’s got the nerve to say no one will remember the failure of getting out of Afghanistan but he says they will remember build back better for the policy change key also for key 9 he says that the Dems arranging a coup against Biden to force him out is not a scandal, if it was trump in office he would have flipped those keys, this guy is clearly partisan, he’s trying to discourage people from voting, GET OUT AND VOTE we can’t risk our country being ruined and a rights being taken away.
He may be eight about mechanics of the process BUT Appearance Image in K.H. case is absurd : She stands for Gender & Colour as Strongest reasons for been elected‼️Greatest Nation on earth Presidency doesn’t stand on that : It requires Executive Experience & Great achievements
The keys are factors that have been useful to predict a the outcome of recent elections, but the keys do not cause the outcome. Correlation vs causation.
Not this time Lichtman
this guy is modest. lol
Many coments ignoring litchmans record and knowledge. Hes not a lefty or stupid. His model is based in history and doesn't change for anything which is good as models that change are subject to bias of the times.
He's been all but right apart from gore (who would have won without jeb bush election suppression)
A simple recount would've fixed that, but the supreme court denied him. It was a difference of 537 votes. Trump got full recounts on two states with 17k and 11k differences.
Gore won! Don’t forget that. So did H. Clinton! Dang electoral colleges
What happened to the 13 keys!? He just shuffles his keys to make up whatever scenario he wants. He left off senility! Big mistake.
Senility is still there with trump
He has a book explaining each of his keys. He has had these keys for decades, so I don’t think he nitpicked them specifically for Joe Biden decades back 😂
But when he predicted Trump winning in 2016 and in 2020, you didn’t say nothing
He predicted Trump in 2016 and Biden in 2020
He’s never wrong. How often are you correct?
What about chaos at the Southern Border?
Is this considered to be military success or failure?
It was a gop failure when the killed the bipartisan bill intending to help it. tRump DEMANDED they kill their own bill so he had something to run on.
@@P.90.603Silence Border Czar shill
Sure, but then you also have Afghanistan. No honest person will say that wasn't a major failure. Plenty of other failures you could point to as well. This guy is not being honest.
@@Mark-kq6chAnd you are wondering how woke guy can be honest?
@@P.90.603it’s literally been up over 300% lately 😂
What would you consider party contest in this case since Kamala wasn’t democratically elected via a primary? Would it be true because she’ll get more than 2 thirds of the delegates or false because she wouldn’t have gotten 2 thirds of the vote if she was involved in the primary?
I believe it's true if Harris is not contested within the party = the party is united behind Harris. This will probably be reflected most directly in the number of delegates she wil have, so the more, the better.
It's over for Trump then. This guy is scary right
I think Kamala is demonstrating charisma in spades....maybe she's not the presidential incumbent but she is the vice president. I think this guy's full of it.
Well he’s never wrong
That lady oozes nothing but cringe
@@mrsir6112He also conveniently disregarded a number of keys on his own system that to which democrats have indeed done since being in office. They've definitely had military and foreign policy failures. He doesn't want to be accused of being Mister Trump predictor and he's willing to be wrong rather than be hated and vilified as the Trump guru as that was the win that really put this guy on the map! Copy cat Kamala has no accomplishments to merit awarding her the presidency. She's done a horrifying job. The only trolls who'd speak highly of her and want her clearly hate America and want it destroyed.
I see he's joined the Hair Club for Men with Trump
For people asking why didn't he include [insert gripe of choice], watch one of his livestreams. He literally answers all of those questions every single time lol. Long answer: read his book and you'll see that each key has specific criteria that have to be met, so its not just based on feelings or biases of the moment.
Keys are a social construct and made up
1,3,4, 8-13 are all obviously false.
@@Mark-kq6ch To actually present a meaningful answer based on his system, you would need to frame your answer based on his specific criteria. Otherwise you're just making things up based on your emotions and preconceived notions / preferences, as well as based on a misinterpretation of what each of the keys actually means. It's like if I read a law that says 'murder is illegal' at the top, but ignore all of the underlying rules relating what defines murder in this context. I.e., what about self-defense, times of war, defense of other, mistakes, crimes of passion, mentally deficient perpetrators, etc. The real world tends to be more nuanced than YT comment sections.
I'd recommend you read his book so you can make an informed opinion, or go to his live stream and ask for an explanation more in-depth than this short video.
@@facio1000 People don't realize that facts don't care about your feelings. It's the same thing every cycle, half the people denying him because they are from opposition parties, and half the people calling it fake.
@@tanaproma3933 I feel like the social media / internet echo chamber effect has been a big part of leading many people (or at least many of the loudest people) to sincerely believe that they are being rational when they're really backwards rationalizing by picking their preferred solution and then finding a bunch of reasons to support it, while discarding anything inconvenient. Not to say this wasn't a big problem before (it was), but it just feels like its worse now.
I'm not going to vote for a party that's afraid of cow fart's. Just saying 😅
Which one did he get wrong and why?
1,3,4,8-13 are all obviously false. #4: RFK is at or near 10%, but when you add in West and Stein (both left wing), the total will be at least 10%. #8: Protests about the war in Gaza. #9: Bribery schemes, the documents case against him, his son's conviction and upcoming trials. #10: No major military failure? Seriously? Afghanistan. You can add in Ukraine and Gaza, frankly, as those could have been avoided. #11: "Foreign/military success": .................? Name one....? #13: Challenger charisma....hate him all you want, but the challenger has charisma. Lichtman won't even admit that, and because. of that and all the above, he has made a mockery of his own system.
@@Mark-kq6ch "avoided" by letting Putin just do whatever lol. You really can avoid a lot of conflicts by just letting the bad guys win. Stellar foreign policy!
@@s0515033 So your perception is that Trump just let the bad guys win. Interesting.
@@Mark-kq6ch He is pro putin and isolationist. That would be the plan.
@@s0515033 Of course, that's not what happened during his first term. But you are the fortune teller.
This dude is getting far too much air time. It's like the press thinks he's some kind of political Nostradamus. He's got some great hair though, so I guess there's that.
It's a wig lol
18918 Filiberto Estates
His hair lol
It’s a wig
It’s his real hair
Schroedinger's hair. It is simultaneously hair and wig. Upon observation, however, the waveform never collapses. It both is, and isn't, his hair. It's enough to drive one mad.
How shallow!! Are you a MAGA
This guy and his keys lol
Katie and her keyboard keys lol
Intresting that he says JD Vance has no impact on Trump's chances of winning or losing. I stand by Mr. Lichtman and all his prediction. I approve this message.
Go , Allan!😊
jp mandell was the best worst pick by beavis & butthead, fascist sarah palin
A failed democrat operative who ran for senate in 2006 in Maryland. He placed 6 th and is an unabashed Trump hater. Expert my a_ _
We clearly have social unrest we just saw some in DC this week
Doesn’t qualify; read the book.
@@P.90.603 BLm had nothing to do with Trump though. COVID-19 i what cost him re-election
@@nickd2296 Not according to the keys; the widespread protesters spawning riots leading to wide political unrest did, though covid probably hurt on the margins too.
@@MarkSav1 What I’m saying is that Trump had nothing to do with George Floyd dying. It was just extremely unlucky I guess
@@nickd2296 His handling of the protests did count as social unrest
Going to end up making his definitive prediction on election night lol
not really. 2020 was way harder to predict so was 2016 with the first woman running and he got both correct.
We are ahead of you. You are waited til the last moment.
Well you get what you vote for you want high inflation and everything that we have had in this almost four years of Biden and Harris you deserve what you get
That can't be your hair.
Have you met JD's couch?
it's a wig
This time our Creator is the one in charge and Allan Lichtman can hang up his keys to hell. Maybe, kind of slip into the pits of hell while he is at it.
He's credible most of the time. However, this isn't a normal election.
It is a normal one. 2024 is far more normal than 2020 for example.
he explained this already. People always feel this one election is not normal. "This is not a normal election, we have a black man running." Yet the keys hold true.
Ha! No election is a "normal election."
It's not about whether the election is normal. It's about whether he's following his own system - he is not. 1,3,4,8-13 are all false. You do the math.
Trumpers are lame to resort to making fun of him because they can't face the truth. 😂
TRUE!!
Why doesn't this guy call out Key #10 Foreign Policy Failure against the Democrats when we all saw the failure in Afghanistan?
I think the fact he does not like Trump is messing his keys up.
He has implemented himself into this election and that's not good.
And political environment is changing his keys do not account for that.
What truth ?!?
@@hereLiesThisTroper I agree with this statement. The Afghanistan withdrawal was the single policy that really swayed Biden’s approval. More so than inflation, immigration, or Gaza. That one should (and will) fall. He thinks that one will inevitably fall. I think it has already fallen. But the 3 other keys will stand or are much more likely to stand. Especially if a ceasefire happens, then there will be no social unrest issues.
How did he predict Reagan’s 1984 win in 1982, two years before the election? Sounds bogus. Those keys could have easily changed during that time
Rohan Road
Every time he comes on I KNOW the first thing he’s going to say “well it’s actually 10/10 because Al Gore should have won” and it’s so irritating
when the republican supreme court and Bush’s literal brother who’s the governor of the state work together to prevent any recalls…
How well do these keys predict elections in foreign democracies?
How is it possible to reconcile the delegates of each state with regard to the keys? In other words, if Harris loses only THREE keys but delegates in current statistics do not change, how is it possible for Harris to get Presidency when the delegates are decided in advance and favoring Trump?
✅did biden just secure the foreign policy key today with Russian exchange?
Not even close
Allan’s 77, his hair is a week old.
Abinader marca página yndonesia
Genuinely surprised the foreign conflict key hasn’t been turned because of the Afghanistan withdrawal and the war is going on in the Middle East and Europe. Not to mention the overall perspective about the economy being negative impacting that key as well. Voter sentiment, or perception, is reality as they say.
The economic key is based on real gdp growth (factors in inflation) compared to the last administration.
He also stated the foreign success leans false
The thing is there are two keys, foreign failure and one for foreign success. You can have a split. You can fuck it up, yet still have a success under you. The failure keys is more than likely to go agaisnt, but there are talks of a ceasefire, which would give the Biden administration a success and turn the key. Also with the economy, the keys have never dealt with overall perception. The are purely math. Is the current real gdp growth bigger than the last two terms, and is there a recession this year? Both of them go with Biden.
@@DallasCowboyFan95 interesting. I watched an interview from him on NBC from a couple days ago and he says that she’s losing five keys there, but here he says there’s only three. This was either recorded before that NBC interview or he changed his mind. Bizarre.
And what foreign policy/military success has there been? No scandals? Really? No social unrest? And the biggest whopper....the challenger doesn't have charisma? Hahaha...I think his system is great, but he is making a mockery of it. Why, I don't know.
@@jrex7486 At this point, I think he's trying to cover for democrats when those 3 am ballots come rolling in.....
I think specifically his 2nd key and keys on the economy are wrong. Although Kamala Harris technically easily won the delegates votes she never actually ran or had anyone actually choose her to be the vice presidential nominee. As we saw in 2020 she was an unpopular candidate and didn’t make the primary. On his keys on the economy he has downplayed or not factored in how bad inflation has hurt this country going up 21% since Biden was elected. My last issue is I think he may be way over downplaying how serious of a candidate rfk jr is. He is the biggest third party candidate we
have seen since Ross Perot and I feel he may be treating him as if he is a just another third party guy
Dee Gateway
short and long term economy does not favor Kamala. Thats nuts.
This guy's wig is HILARIOUS !!!
😂😂😂😂keys 🔑
Lichtman’ a hair is reminiscent of Liberace.😂
She is the Queen...of Word Salad
“It is time for us to do what we have been doing...And that time is every day.”
I’m voting for HARRIS, no doubt about that. 👍🇺🇸
Why?
Don’t vote, she’s up by 90 pts
You're insane!
Stupid is stupid does.. I AM voting TRUMP 2024 I am JEWISH ✡️ AND ALL MY PEOPLE ARE VOTING TRUMP 2024... JUST SAYING
I'm starting to think that Kamala Harris has about the same if not more enthusiasm as Obama in 2008.
I mean, we've got sometime until we see what happens, but I was not expecting her to get this much momentum.
Although, this is good.
Don’t forget the Cartel Key!!!
Apparently he doesn't remember Palin.
Good point. She certainly didn't help McCain.
He forgot most important key media propaganda.😊
I like the dude but he's a bit over saturated at the moment
Watch him come back on the show with a different prediction. Predicting a failed administration re-election is wild. I don’t think Americans are that stupid!!!
Bringing back a convict that failed the first time in office? That would be beyond insanity. Never go back, got to move forward with new ideas
He hasn't made a prediction.
@@paulg6527 He hasn’t but the way he’s talking it sounds like he’s making a prediction.
You might be surprised.
A point of the model is a partisan opinion of failure doesn't qualify as failed administration. The growth numbers in economy say no failure hence those keys favor Harris.
Even if RFK Jr's support is high, the polling I've seen suggests that his candidacy could siphon more votes away from Trump than from Harris (& I doubt he'll get above 10%). My guess is that the Gaza war would've fizzled out by Nov. 5th as well (& Kamala being the Dem's nominee helps to shore up some of that lost support among young voters who were reluctant to support Biden due to his support of Israel). I wish that Biden would resign now from the presidency, which would then give Kamala the (unopposed) incumbency key.
RFK is right around 10. But if you add in West and Stein, 3rd party support is even higher.
He's also lying about military failures (Afghanistan), challenger charisma, social unrest, and major scandal. Other than that, he's a very honest guy.
@@Mark-kq6ch The latest NY Times poll puts RFK at about 5%, while the latest Wall Street Journal poll puts him at 4%. His numbers are seriously down from right after the debate (go to Politico). West shouldn't be much of a factor by Nov.
@@georgeschaut2178 Even if it turns out that way, #4 doesn't even matter. At this point, 1,3, and 8-13 are all false. Also, I would bet that the support RFK is losing is going more to Trump than Harris.
Trump's supporters are definitely not more likely to flock to RFK, they are far more certain & determined, loyal & die hard than copy cat Kamala. They have to pay people in welfare benefits to attend those rallies. The propaganda machine is spinning her as a sudden Saint Roosevelt and have no shame of embarrassment in their literal overnight drastic 180!!! Nobody's buying it. I rose out of poverty when Trump was in, and life was generally more optimistic.
No comentarios.no entiendo.ingles.gracias
Looking forward to voting for her!
Needs to get that area rug on his head trimmed.
What are the major keys to his toupee looking good
Only question is why in 2016 he gave the 3rd party key for Johnson who at the time right after the DNC convention was polling about 9-10% but not every poll, and Lichtman says he cuts that in half.
Vote BLUE, New York, California, Chicago, Nantucket and other sanctuary cities welcome ALL ILLEGAL IMMIGRANTS IT'S FREE MONEY, HOUSING AND MEDICAL. GO BLUE
By the way. The 5 keys are down already. If you look at his all time record with 5 keys going down he’s 2-2. So saying you have to have 6 keys to lose is not true. There’s a 50/50 chance of a loss with 5 keys
Irrelevant because it's actually 9 keys that are already down. 1,3,4,8-13 are all obviously false.
I'm 1984 he said the short term economy key was false even tho there was no recession because the voters FELT and BELIEVED the economy was bad...I dint know how that doesn't apply to this election? Even if we aren't in recession, the population does not "feel" the economy is great
Professor Lichtman constantly says he doesn't go by how people feel they are based on the actual government statistics and the last two presidential terms regarding economy. If he went by opinion his keys would not be accurate.
In 1984, the key was true. Do you mean 1992? He has shown some inconsistencies for this key and I'm inclined to ask him about it. In his book, he said this key is primarily determined by people's perception. In his live stream, he said you can't depend on people's perception for this key. My only guess is that he means you can't depend on people's perception if there's a recession but when it comes to identifying trends, their opinion matters. There was clearly a recession in 1990, but it wasn't obvious it was over by election time per the polls. We did not have a recession during Biden's term and the trend is obviously improving from where we were during Covid.
What do you mean people "feel"? The economy is one of the few areas where peoples' opinions and feelings are instinctively correct. Because it's something all people experience, every day, all the time. They know if they're better off or worse off, if food, gas, house, healthcare prices are higher or lower, relative to their pay.
read his book. Its based off national economic reports not people's feeling about the economy.
@@Doodfist The fact is that real household income is down because of inflation, mortgage rates, and many other factors. Usually when GDP is up that is not true. But this key doesn't even matter because 1,3,4,8-13 have already fallen. You do the math.
Vote president trumps save country
Save it from what? He couldn't even save it from COVID-19
Trump is done lmao
Goodbye Trump
Kamalla
Boy I hope he is wrong because I cannot sustain another 4 years of a democrat presidency, never mind the most liberal and leftist Dem to date, as voted by the dems themselves.
Your would if you are now invested in the market.
Nah… Trump voters holding out and will come in droves
Howdy doody reporting
So he never said who's going to win
He said he's waiting til after DNC as daily things are up in the air.
If he wasn’t biased I’d be interested
He predicted Trump for the win when polls and experts said it would be Hillary.
This dude looks like he has a serious drinking problem lol
Have you seen Don "Corky Romano" Jr. lately? 😂
@Andrina-fl9ef this wasn't a left vs right thing lol the dude seriously looks like a serious drunk. Do u agree?
@Mike-ye8qv No, he doesn't, but Don Jr. clearly has substance abuse issues.
Is that the best you can do? It takes one to know one!!
Lichtman is so happy biden dropped out. 😂
He called for Biden to stay in bc he would win the incumbent key.
So he just keep rearranging the keys to say what he wants them to say
There has never been an election like this one.
So what. all elections are different.
You can say that about every election.
The Keys have worked flawlessly for 160 years even though USA political systems, society and the world have changed drastically through that time.
That was said about Obama and Hillary and Reagan. The keys called them all.
This dude has TDS
100%.
Worst toupee in history
Lies & BS
Kamala is going to win!! Trump has no path forward to 270 and with Lichtman's keys. Congrats Kamala!! HAHAHA
That will change. Trump will win
He doesn't tell you that 4 prior elections both foreign policy keys went false and the incumbents all lost
@@user-bl3vk8qc6h Wishful thinking. There's no way
@@andrewleavell5007 yes he will. He's got them posted online. He was very sure too that Biden would say because he spoke to his ex campaign director and two days later he drooped out . Look at 1960 1968 1976 2008. Both foreign policy keys false they all lost. 1968 last dem president Johnson didn't see second term. Convention was in Chicago too and unrest broke out. They have his keys on Wikipedia past elections
@@andrewleavell5007”there’s no way” ? You’re really bold with it, l know you could see into the future and I didn’t know God uses UA-cam 🥴
Challenger Charisma. Trump has charisma. You might not like it. Presumably, you don't like Hitler either, but he had charisma. Charisma is independent of whether you like someone.
Trump HAS no charisma. While he commands media attention and has an enthusiastic base, he only appeals to a narrow slice of the electorate, as opposed to having a broad appeal that extends to voters outside his party's base like that of Franklin D. Roosevelt and Ronald Reagan.
He's too old and rambles too much.
@@Andrina-fl9ef He could've have had charisma if he's a nice man.
If you don't like him, he doesn't have charisma.
@@ultramarineinception5298 Like it or not, Trump has NO charisma.
Blue Maga Liberals big mad 😡 Trump going to win 😂😂😂😂
And kids this brings me to my next point.... DON'T DO DRUGS!!!
@@rooster1012 🤣🤣🤣🤣 hit a nerve with the they’s or whatever there called
Not likely.