Alan was nervous about 2016 election, but this 2024 election has been even stranger than 2016. I think this election will be close like 2000. If it comes to one state again, I think despite his system, it can go either way. I think it will be a nail biter. Let’s see how my comment ages.
Lol I remember when fox news was salivating on this Man when he said this! Four years later, he is now predicting Joe Biden win, and fox news is calling him a left wing turd🤣😂
"And let me be as clear as I can be. In my view, Democrats will not retain the White House, will not regain the Senate or the U.S. House, will not be successful in dozens of governors' races all across this country, unless we generate excitement and momentum and produce a huge voter turnout." -- Bernie Sanders, address to the DNC Aug 28, 2015
Is it a prediction or a speculation? I believe no one can confidently predict the future, they can only speculate. Anyway, lets wait for the results November 6th at 8 P.M ET
@@calebtaylor3835 Biden won. Therefore your Trump is going out of office in 4 weeks. Take that! So instead of the "4 more years" chant it's actually now the chant of "4 more weeks!!!" "4 more weeks!!!" "4 more weeks!!!" 😆😄💪💪💙💙🇺🇸🇺🇸🇺🇸
imgone I Also Predicted Trump Would Win. I Predict He Will Be Impeached Once Mueller Ends The Investigation. Nixon Resigned After He Was Impeached To Avoid Going To Prison. I Was Right The First Time I’ll Be Right Again. Bill Clinton Wasn’t Impeached. You’re Thinking Of Andrew Johnson. Who Was Impeached But Acquitted By The Senate. This Clearly Shows That Trump Supporters Are Stupid.
John McKinney I voted for Bill Clinton the first time I voted when I was 18. Bill Clinton was impeached by the House but not removed from office by the Senate. The Senate trial was in 1999. I also voted for Donald Trump and will be very interested to see Allen’s prediction for 2020.
He technically did. Before 2016 he got 2000 wrong so then he said his keys are used to predict the popular vote. Then changed it again saying it was predicting the electoral college. And to keep his “perfect record” he now says 2000 was a stolen election
@@pats334 Well, the difference between Florida was 538 votes. That is automatic grounds for a recount, and Bush went to SCOTUS (which was bias and conservative) stopped the count. Tell me, how is it fair that Trump got recounts in both GA and AZ where both states had a difference of 11k and 17k votes? Al Gore wasn't given a proper chance at a recount, because Bush knew Florida was going to go to Gore. 2000 was an absolute sh*tshow and a huge miscarriage of justice.
Okay so if you read his book his own word says his system is based on popular vote in 2016 Trump won the electoral college without the popular vote remember Joe Biden on the polls was leading by double-digit margins Trump is currently tied with Kamala that's not enough to win she has to be pulling double digits and she's not Biden Burley one by literally few thousand votes
@@pats334 to be quite fair, 2000 was an election many were off by and was fought in court till the bitter end. very unprecendented eleciton no one could predict
@@pats334data doesn’t lie, there were immense amounts of voter suppression in Florida amount black voters. Plus he specifically predicted the popular vote in 2000, and then immediately afterwards decided to only predict the electoral college winner
@@thehalloweenheavymetalwarriorHe is so far predicting in 2024, not final yet though, that Trump will be a 1 time winner, 2 time loser, and that a lot would have to go wrong for Kamala Harris to lose.
He is Not a Trump supporter, he predicts the candidates, whether it's republican or democrats, and this video is from 2016, so he just predicted that kamala will win, he didn't change his mind
I'd be curious to know if Trump supporters in these comments have the same glowing regard for Professor Lichtman. This same professor is predicting that Biden will win 2020.
Amazing that something so grotesque (a president can commit crimes with impunity i.e. one person is above the law) is even being discussed. Are these judges stupid or criminal?
His predictions are basically a realization of historical and institutional approach to elections outcomes. That fills me with worry, because the day his prediction would be off, it’d be basically a sign of a full blown constitutional crisis in America
How could you vote democrat after the last 3.5 years? What else do you need to see? Inflation, open borders, two new wars, fake jobs reports, the Afghan withdrawal, more people dying from covid than the pandemic year.
We all have to to counter the fraud that will surely be rampant on Election Day. We must turn out in droves to vote even though we know he's the real winner. Trump-Pence2016!!
I love how the people in the comments 4 years ago here are saying yeah this guy is smart! And now that he’s predicting Biden will win they are saying here No He’s stupid! Lmaoo
@@Logan-hh9meit has to be a recession do u not listen??? it has to be a declared recession by the major organizations that declare recessions since the 1800s and we r not in a declared recession bro. u people keep trying to define the keys for him. they r strictly defined yet u ignore the actual definition of what they mean. so no we r not in a recession in any way. so she is good to go. she’s gonna win and that’s that. we r sick of trump and his division and hate. we want peace not stress and fighting and division and doom and gloom.
@@Logan-hh9methe only thing that the key measures is economic growth based on statistics, inflation right now is going down, the unemployment rate is lower than it’s been in years, and was lower that in was 4 years ago, 🤷♂️. Look at the analysis for what he said it’s not based on how things FEEL about the economy it’s based on actual stats.
I think if Obama, Clinton, and Biden had all gotten into that teleport machine from The Fly (the Jeff Goldblum movie) and melded their genetic material into one single body, they would've become an unbeatable super Democrat called: The Barillary O'Bidinton: Ultimate President
@@adimart2214 Yes indeed, despite she wasn't my inicial pick this year, but I trust Biden that we must unite behind Kamala Harris, as she is the only way to save our Democracy. Let's go Kamala 2024!!! 💙💙💙💪💪💪🇺🇸🇺🇸🇺🇸
Enthusiasm will win this election . Trump supporters will. Vote for sure . The dems lack any enthusiasm you can see this by clintons rallies half empty halls .
@@BlakeWheelersBurnerAccountinflation is now under 3% and was a result of the pandemic messing up the supply chain. Unemployment has been record low for years. Biggest infrastructure bill ever, chips act, IRA, caps on insulin, manufacturing jobs coming back, and we had a bipartisan border bill about to be passed until Trump told republicans to block it so he can use immigration for the election. The 2 new wars have zero US boots on the ground and Biden has reinvigorated NATO.
@@BlakeWheelersBurnerAccountInflation is half the global average, Trump blocked the border bill because he wanted credit for it if he won, t Trump ran on an afghan withdraw and then pussed out while president, prove that there are fake job reports, Trump told Putin to “do whatever the he’ll he wanted”.
4 years after, do you Trumpists still like this professor as you did then? 😂😂😂😂 Joseph R. Biden is now the elected 46th president of the United States of America. Love and unity win! 💙💙💙💙
We're all screwed. It's going to take another 35 plus years to undo what all of the corruption in politics has created in our country: excessive cynicism; joblessness; inflamed bigotry and civil unrest; joblessness; perversion and corruption such as that which hasn't been seen since the time of Caligula in the Roman Empire. Big brother is going to feast on the discontent and disloyalty which has been cultivated and fostered in the creation of a police state where we have regrettably come to live under the illusion of freedom, all the while our true constitutional liberties are being systematically dismantled, denied, and destroyed. God save us.
I found a couple of his key questions to be somewhat subjective, depending on personal beliefs. Example: he has the Iran Nuclear deal as a 'win' for the democrats. I see it as a 'loss' for America.
I will look at the debate Monday, listen to the analysis and will then fill out and Mail my ballot. Not a supporter of Clinton or Trump or Johnson. So right now Stein has my vote, unless I'm convinced differently by the debate. I doubt I will be, but you never know, so they have a chance on Monday.
you'll feel that way with either candidate but most of the things that people think about trump is completely wrong, the most common thing is people think he's a racist
I think this guy is honestly a genius. He’s identified all of the necessary conditions to take the presidency, and applied a pretty strict criteria to each one. I wonder if in the future, polling will be seen as a “snapshot fallacy” (not my concept, but I don’t know who originated it), and Lichtman’s model will take over.
I love that he's apolitical. Doesn't matter where he personally stands if the keys are right he predicts whoever has the most. He didnt like Trump but he knew he'd win.
Here Gary Johnson's just about 5% in the polls is enough. Now Lichtman is saying a third party candidate needs to poll 10% or more to make that key false. Moving goalposts a bit?
@@sidtheshuckle Watch the video. They both were judged false. Third party was deemed false here by Lichtman and by different standards than he requires today.
@@user-he8nu2ic1h during that time Gary Johnson was polling at 10% so that’s why Lichtman said it was false. But due to Johnson’s massive underperformance and Aleppo gaffe, garnering only 3%, that key has been made retroactively not against the Dems
The supporters of whoever he predicts always call him a genius while the opponent's supporters always call him a partisan hack. It's nuts. You'd think people would pick up on the fact that this guy is just historically right over and over again.
Trump supporters. We are leading in NV IA OH NC FL and ME(1ev), if he holds these (266 EVs) and wins ONE more state. We have President Trump. Reality is its very very close, just get out and VOTE!
whose here after his 2024 prediction?
Thank goodness
Alan was nervous about 2016 election, but this 2024 election has been even stranger than 2016. I think this election will be close like 2000. If it comes to one state again, I think despite his system, it can go either way. I think it will be a nail biter. Let’s see how my comment ages.
@@suprensa4393 I know, but none of it matters unless we all VOTE and send her to the WH with dem supermajority!
@@suprensa4393 if Kamala gets pumped in the debate next week then all bets are off
He is gonna be wrong.
Lol I remember when fox news was salivating on this Man when he said this! Four years later, he is now predicting Joe Biden win, and fox news is calling him a left wing turd🤣😂
I’m a trump supporter but I do still think his predictions are valid and that Biden will win
He also predicted more recently that Trump would be impeached, he’s not a prophet. Lets hope Trump wins again and keep America alive for 4 more years!
@@calebtaylor3835 Trump did get impeached...
@@calebtaylor3835 he did get impeached
@@calebtaylor3835 he did get impeached tho
Looking back, many people probably thought he was crazy. What a prediction! 👍🏼
Oh you must not like his 2020 prediction then
"And let me be as clear as I can be. In my view, Democrats will not retain the White House, will not regain the Senate or the U.S. House, will not be successful in dozens of governors' races all across this country, unless we generate excitement and momentum and produce a huge voter turnout."
-- Bernie Sanders, address to the DNC Aug 28, 2015
Now he's predicting Biden
@@palatasikuntheyoutubecomme2046 Most of the keys say Biden, so it is Biden although he's saying he wont make a final prediction
I still think he was lucky, I mean Trump only won because of the electoral college
Who’s here in 2024 or after?
✋
Yes but now republicans are mad because his prediction doesn’t look like it’s going to line up with their hope lol
Kamala has got it.
It's 2024, and he's now predicting Harris to win.
@@Zachary_Dale Thanks for the update
This was 4 years ago, why is the quality make it seem like 1996 lmao
What you talking about ? It's 7 years ago
@@bojan80 Quick question, whats your iq?
Maga trying math...oh Dear
😂😂😂😂
@@bojan80 if you looks closely to his comments its 3 years ago. Now 2024 becomes 7 years ago
He just predicted Biden, so we'll see 👍
He might be on another winning streak
and biden won
AND HE SCORED!
He is time traveller
@Hatersgotohell If it's not revealed then how do you know it happened? Your argument is based in speculation.
Now he says Biden will win in 2020.
he is right
Elijah I God I hope so.
breadordecide me too
Me three 😎
walker jfs Joe Biden is anti gun?
I wonder how many of us are here after he just predicted Kamala Harris to win
I am and I'm loving the MAGA tears. 😋😋🤣🤣
I am. Trying to see if he is as good as they say he is.
@@aprelbell5334 10 of 10 so far. This one is going to be a real nail biter though, we'll see
@@ghrocker99661 He got 2000 wrong, and has flip-flopped on whether he’s talking about an EC win or a popular vote win.
We're here😂
Now trumplings are calling this dude fake news🤣
Yes, they dont even when reality slaps them in the face! cult party.
they’re doing it again lol it’s a cult
@@i0r-r-tjtkttl As of now the keys favor Harris, I have been following his youtube channel.
Hes got Trump derangement syndrome
@usa26point2mileman yep, I think harris has it
I hope he’ll be right again in 2024.
Trump is done.
Today 9/5/24 he just predicted Kamala will win. She has the keys in her favor.
Is it a prediction or a speculation? I believe no one can confidently predict the future, they can only speculate. Anyway, lets wait for the results November 6th at 8 P.M ET
@@ResearchPapers1he is not psychic! He has 13 keys which predict the winner , it's serious thing .
@@ResearchPapers1 Let's come back to your comment after the election
Let's come back to your comment after the election, if you're right I will send you 20$ 😂
@@hbjj4785 Lousy 20 dollars? Erm...that doesn´t sound like you believe in maga win much...
Now he’s predicting Trump will lose the 2020 election
He also predicted Trump would be impeached, he had a great 25+ year winning streak. But it’s broken now
@@calebtaylor3835 Trump was impeached, but the GOP refused to even hold a hearing in the senate. He predicted the impeachment correctly.
And he was correct Im starting to think he can see the future
@@calebtaylor3835 🤣🤣🤣🤣😂😂😂🤡🤡🤡
@@calebtaylor3835 Biden won. Therefore your Trump is going out of office in 4 weeks. Take that! So instead of the "4 more years" chant it's actually now the chant of "4 more weeks!!!" "4 more weeks!!!" "4 more weeks!!!" 😆😄💪💪💙💙🇺🇸🇺🇸🇺🇸
He was right about Bidens win!!!
I'm so relieved to hear he predicted Kamala but we can't be complacent! Go out and vote blue!
Trump is the only choice
I like this man. He's smart. I think his prediction is accurate.
Waqar Zahid He’s Also Predicting That Trump Will Be Impeached Like Nixon.
imgone Yet You Were Butthurt Over Kathy Griffin’s Photo Shoot.
imgone I Also Predicted Trump Would Win. I Predict He Will Be Impeached Once Mueller Ends The Investigation. Nixon Resigned After He Was Impeached To Avoid Going To Prison. I Was Right The First Time I’ll Be Right Again. Bill Clinton Wasn’t Impeached. You’re Thinking Of Andrew Johnson. Who Was Impeached But Acquitted By The Senate. This Clearly Shows That Trump Supporters Are Stupid.
John McKinney I voted for Bill Clinton the first time I voted when I was 18. Bill Clinton was impeached by the House but not removed from office by the Senate. The Senate trial was in 1999. I also voted for Donald Trump and will be very interested to see Allen’s prediction for 2020.
@@MovieEnforcer I can't believe how no one has question your "history" lesson. Quite impressive. Good and funny comment!
Now 2020, American still hope his prediction is accurate.
I agree.
walker jfs he predicted joe Biden
walker jfs i don’t care. I’m just informing you.
@walker jfs my dad is gun owner voting for biden
Another slam dunk
And now in 2024 he is predicting a Kamala Harris win
Will be correct once again.
Should be a close election in 2024 but he's probably right..
lol, here in 2024 because i fought with like 20 maga ppl claiming he got 2016 wrong. :) yet, here we are
He technically did. Before 2016 he got 2000 wrong so then he said his keys are used to predict the popular vote. Then changed it again saying it was predicting the electoral college. And to keep his “perfect record” he now says 2000 was a stolen election
@@pats334 Well, the difference between Florida was 538 votes. That is automatic grounds for a recount, and Bush went to SCOTUS (which was bias and conservative) stopped the count. Tell me, how is it fair that Trump got recounts in both GA and AZ where both states had a difference of 11k and 17k votes? Al Gore wasn't given a proper chance at a recount, because Bush knew Florida was going to go to Gore. 2000 was an absolute sh*tshow and a huge miscarriage of justice.
Okay so if you read his book his own word says his system is based on popular vote in 2016 Trump won the electoral college without the popular vote remember Joe Biden on the polls was leading by double-digit margins Trump is currently tied with Kamala that's not enough to win she has to be pulling double digits and she's not Biden Burley one by literally few thousand votes
@@pats334 to be quite fair, 2000 was an election many were off by and was fought in court till the bitter end. very unprecendented eleciton no one could predict
@@pats334data doesn’t lie, there were immense amounts of voter suppression in Florida amount black voters. Plus he specifically predicted the popular vote in 2000, and then immediately afterwards decided to only predict the electoral college winner
WE LAUGHED AT HIM NOW WE RESPECT HIM
trump is a winner 2016
And now is the loser as predicted by the same man who predicted his win in 2016. 🤣🤣😂
@@thehalloweenheavymetalwarriorHe is so far predicting in 2024, not final yet though, that Trump will be a 1 time winner, 2 time loser, and that a lot would have to go wrong for Kamala Harris to lose.
@@HudsonsBayFandom I hope so!💙💙💙🙏🙏🙏
Not in 2024 though.
This popped up on my feed in 2024 and the headline had me thinking he changed his mind about Harris. 😮. Then I saw the upload date. Phew. 😅
He is Not a Trump supporter, he predicts the candidates, whether it's republican or democrats, and this video is from 2016, so he just predicted that kamala will win, he didn't change his mind
Voted 💙 to save our democracy
Welp he says kamala will win this time
And he has predicted Harris this time. Hope to God he’s right!!!
She will win!
Moral victory is always a choice if their is morality, but when there is lack of morality choice is limited to the lesser of two evils.
Invite him again for this upcoming election ;-).
I'd be curious to know if Trump supporters in these comments have the same glowing regard for Professor Lichtman. This same professor is predicting that Biden will win 2020.
he was right then .... and hes right now ... happy Kamala ...
I’m here because Vance will be the reason Trump lost. What a poor choice for VP.
Vance is beyond terrible, but the vp pick doesn't affect the keys
@@hissatsu4937 if you take a deep dive of the keys, you will see he is not using them correctly. The bias TDS might of got the best of him.
@@trevorphillips2868so the guy who created the keys isn’t using them correctly hahahah. ya u know more than him hahahaja. cope.
@@JadeLanay Read the keys and compare it to what's going on.
@@trevorphillips2868 i have. alan’s spot on. he knows the keys he invented them.
God i hope he's right, the alternative is just too horrible to contemplate,
How do you feel now
@@MegaChallanger Lol.
Deliver us from Evil, Allan!
Yes please Allan save us from the orange wannabe fascist narcissist dictator 🤞
This guy must be a genius or something
He is. now he’s saying joe Biden will win.
you might not like his new prediction
Yes, he is. Check his latest prediction.
His haircut is longer on one side.
That's just to hide the brain-controlling slug thats attached to the side of his skull.
Likely just another Reptilian trick...👽
He was right
Yep. His keys have proven to be a reliable predictor.
Wonder how they feel about him now that he’s predicting a Harris win😂😂
Oh this is from 4 years ago hahahaha
solid hair game
Amazing that something so grotesque (a president can commit crimes with impunity i.e. one person is above the law) is even being discussed. Are these judges stupid or criminal?
Clarence Thomas, Ginny Thomas and Donald Trump all need to be locked up in the same, closet sized prison cell.
Both.
Trump all the way!!
How about 2024? He predicts trump will lost
Landslide incoming
Landslide against trump 2024 😅
Brilliant.
now it's going to Kamala again hahahahhaa
His predictions are basically a realization of historical and institutional approach to elections outcomes. That fills me with worry, because the day his prediction would be off, it’d be basically a sign of a full blown constitutional crisis in America
Says Kamala will win!! Sept 2024
Lichtman is money
He is gold
My greatest concern is voter fraud
Not a real thing lol
Nice educational video. Vote trump.
Still nice, 2024
2024 🗳️💙
Hope is right Trump 2016
Seven years ago, but NOT in 2024!
He didn't make his prediction yet
@@jacobnapkins1155already for kamala.
@@muhdhanif1048 yes that comment was a month ago
Why isn’t fox showing this professor for the next election? Because he has given his prediction this time too 😉
How could you vote democrat after the last 3.5 years? What else do you need to see? Inflation, open borders, two new wars, fake jobs reports, the Afghan withdrawal, more people dying from covid than the pandemic year.
Pa for Trump
Trump for PRESIDENT!!!
Trump for prison 2024!!!
Why does it looks like the 80s?
This looks so old and it was pretty recent.
If I was running and I see his prediction I will drop
Why was this video released in 2016 but it looks like it was filmed in 2005?
just six?....
after hearing, I breathe a sign of relief. nonetheless, I will vote for Trump even it means I crawl to voting booth.
We all have to to counter the fraud that will surely be rampant on Election Day. We must turn out in droves to vote even though we know he's the real winner.
Trump-Pence2016!!
Still breathing sigh of relief after hearing at 2024? 😅
This guy is a legend
KAMALA 2024 💙💙💙
Enjoy your mass immigration dude
She is going to loseeeee
@@estellee-d3tBet. We will see in November.
@@deemiaanthey are eating the dogs and the cats 😂😂😂😂
@@aak24815which is true
I love how the people in the comments 4 years ago here are saying yeah this guy is smart! And now that he’s predicting Biden will win they are saying here No He’s stupid! Lmaoo
Let’s hope he is right again in 2020
This guy also predicted Trump would be impeached. He isn’t a prophet!
@@calebtaylor3835 But he is impeached? Impeachment doesn't mean removal from office, it means legal charges against a government official.
This is good news. I pray this Professor is right.
Dude was legit!
Looks like he just predicted Biden. Do you still pray he is right?
@@michael8990nope now he prays that he's wrong🤣
Are you praying he's right again? This year, it's Kamala!
Still praying for 2024?
lol and now Trump supporters think this guy is a joke
He gave her both economy keys my dude after she said that it isn't doing well.
@@Logan-hh9meit has to be a recession do u not listen??? it has to be a declared recession by the major organizations that declare recessions since the 1800s and we r not in a declared recession bro. u people keep trying to define the keys for him. they r strictly defined yet u ignore the actual definition of what they mean. so no we r not in a recession in any way. so she is good to go. she’s gonna win and that’s that. we r sick of trump and his division and hate. we want peace not stress and fighting and division and doom and gloom.
@@Logan-hh9methe economy keys are based purely on statistics, and looking at them as of right now he’s right 🤷♂️
@@archmageplayz1810 Sure. Prices of everything up.
@@Logan-hh9methe only thing that the key measures is economic growth based on statistics, inflation right now is going down, the unemployment rate is lower than it’s been in years, and was lower that in was 4 years ago, 🤷♂️. Look at the analysis for what he said it’s not based on how things FEEL about the economy it’s based on actual stats.
who is here in 2028 wondering who will win?
I think if Obama, Clinton, and Biden had all gotten into that teleport machine from The Fly (the Jeff Goldblum movie) and melded their genetic material into one single body, they would've become an unbeatable super Democrat called: The Barillary O'Bidinton: Ultimate President
That’s the most random video I’ve seen, like I have a lot of videos about the election but I didn’t expect one from 2016
What a terrible rug!
Im here in 2024!
Hillary Clinton>LOCK HER UP! Save our USA vote for Donald Trump!
And your Trump lost this time! Lock up Donald Trump!!! BIDEN 2020!!!
Biden is so awful, im sure you feel stupid for voting for him
@@thehalloweenheavymetalwarriorKamala 2024!!!!🤣🤣🤣😂😂
@@adimart2214 Yes indeed, despite she wasn't my inicial pick this year, but I trust Biden that we must unite behind Kamala Harris, as she is the only way to save our Democracy. Let's go Kamala 2024!!! 💙💙💙💪💪💪🇺🇸🇺🇸🇺🇸
😂😂
Enthusiasm will win this election . Trump supporters will. Vote for sure . The dems lack any enthusiasm you can see this by clintons rallies half empty halls .
We have our first Madam President Harris 💙 2024 👍🙏
The first woman President won't be a democrat. It's such a pc book move that it's just not going to happen. You need competence to be elected.
Inflation, open borders, the Afghan withdraw, fake jobs reports, two new wars. You voted for that.
@@BlakeWheelersBurnerAccountinflation is now under 3% and was a result of the pandemic messing up the supply chain.
Unemployment has been record low for years.
Biggest infrastructure bill ever, chips act, IRA, caps on insulin, manufacturing jobs coming back, and we had a bipartisan border bill about to be passed until Trump told republicans to block it so he can use immigration for the election.
The 2 new wars have zero US boots on the ground and Biden has reinvigorated NATO.
@@BlakeWheelersBurnerAccountInflation is half the global average, Trump blocked the border bill because he wanted credit for it if he won, t Trump ran on an afghan withdraw and then pussed out while president, prove that there are fake job reports, Trump told Putin to “do whatever the he’ll he wanted”.
@@captainnice1881 you people elected reality tv guy, so competence is not really what you care
4 years after, do you Trumpists still like this professor as you did then? 😂😂😂😂 Joseph R. Biden is now the elected 46th president of the United States of America. Love and unity win! 💙💙💙💙
2:32 “It’s always better to have a sitting president running” he never talked about this in 2024.
He talked frequently
He predicted Harris in 2024
You should now report his 2024 prediction
2024 and both are UA-cam superstars
Want an accurate prediction? ... Look at the gambling odds. They are historically more accurate than polls or pundits.
he was right but will be right about this year
No they aren't lol they predict whoever the most people bet
ive read about his prediction method... good to know he calculates Trump to win :) looks like he will be right for hte 14th time
Hopefully he's right for the 15th time :)
Attalic yeah
Attalic yes.
might not like his new prediction
@@pancakesan9852 yeah. Now they all claim he’s either a paid shill or a fool. Anything to fit their coocoo for Cocoa Puffs reality.
May the best MAN win.
We're all screwed. It's going to take another 35 plus years to undo what all of the corruption in politics has created in our country: excessive cynicism; joblessness; inflamed bigotry and civil unrest; joblessness; perversion and corruption such as that which hasn't been seen since the time of Caligula in the Roman Empire.
Big brother is going to feast on the discontent and disloyalty which has been cultivated and fostered in the creation of a police state where we have regrettably come to live under the illusion of freedom, all the while our true constitutional liberties are being systematically dismantled, denied, and destroyed. God save us.
We were mostly fine relax
I think hes right this time as well, i dont think any polling properly accounts for the number of new voters that will chip in for the first time
I stopped doubting him after 2016
Trump 2016!!!!!
Trump for prison 2024!!!
I found a couple of his key questions to be somewhat subjective, depending on personal beliefs. Example: he has the Iran Nuclear deal as a 'win' for the democrats. I see it as a 'loss' for America.
I will look at the debate Monday, listen to the analysis and will then fill out and Mail my ballot. Not a supporter of Clinton or Trump or Johnson. So right now Stein has my vote, unless I'm convinced differently by the debate. I doubt I will be, but you never know, so they have a chance on Monday.
jill is at 1% gary isn't a real libertarian and hillary is a corrupt criminal politician.
Trump is just not an option for me. There isn't enough water to wash away that dirty feeling that would come from voting for Trump.
you'll feel that way with either candidate but most of the things that people think about trump is completely wrong, the most common thing is people think he's a racist
if you dislike sjws feminazi's etc vote for trump because that's what the dems brew. they make People intolerant and overly sensitive
I will be voting for Jill not hill and not TrumpTheDump
I think this guy is honestly a genius. He’s identified all of the necessary conditions to take the presidency, and applied a pretty strict criteria to each one.
I wonder if in the future, polling will be seen as a “snapshot fallacy” (not my concept, but I don’t know who originated it), and Lichtman’s model will take over.
VOTE TRUMP/PENCE! OR THINGS WILL JUST GET HILLARIOUS!
I love that he's apolitical. Doesn't matter where he personally stands if the keys are right he predicts whoever has the most. He didnt like Trump but he knew he'd win.
Here Gary Johnson's just about 5% in the polls is enough. Now Lichtman is saying a third party candidate needs to poll 10% or more to make that key false. Moving goalposts a bit?
nope, historically 3rd party candidates underperform their August polls. Disregarding solid historical evidence is moving the goalpost.
@@jeremyjackson7429watch Kennedy will get like 3% everyone comes home politically by Election Day
Key 4 was not turned false but rather Key 2, primary contest. Bernie’s challenge to Hillary was what made Hillary lose
@@sidtheshuckle Watch the video. They both were judged false. Third party was deemed false here by Lichtman and by different standards than he requires today.
@@user-he8nu2ic1h during that time Gary Johnson was polling at 10% so that’s why Lichtman said it was false. But due to Johnson’s massive underperformance and Aleppo gaffe, garnering only 3%, that key has been made retroactively not against the Dems
The supporters of whoever he predicts always call him a genius while the opponent's supporters always call him a partisan hack. It's nuts. You'd think people would pick up on the fact that this guy is just historically right over and over again.
9 out if ten is not bad.
Even though all presidential elections are fixed.
Someone told me.
long live professor 😉
Bet you don't like his 2020 prediction :P
Do you still like him? He just predicted a Kamala win.
Still long live for him?
Trump would be a joke. a not funny joke...
Are you American?
Hell I could have told you all of that a year ago. Go Trump!!
Prof. Lichtman looks pretty goofy but somehow I like him a lot!..also, I hope he's right!!
Do you still like him after today's prediction?
@@michael8990 Chances are, probably not.
You can tell this is old because it is not digital audio it's analogue audio
Can anybody name of the interviewer? He seems so level-headed.
That's Clayton Morris from redacted
Trump supporters. We are leading in NV IA OH NC FL and ME(1ev), if he holds these (266 EVs) and wins ONE more state. We have President Trump. Reality is its very very close, just get out and VOTE!
I look at 538 thats all. Sure polls may change. He may lose FL, he may win PA who knows?
***** is nutz...
Trump 2016.....
Biden 2020
Kamala 2024 🎉🎉🎉