CORRECTION: At 5:00, the bar charts are mislabelled - 2024 and 2020 should be switched around. Apologies for the error, and we hope you nonetheless enjoyed the vid!
Sorry but that’s also wrong, the Republican number is bigger by 100K in 2024 compared to 2020 while democrat is decreasing. You charts shows both increasing and decreasing which makes Democrat position looks better. This is the year where both Democrat number is decreasing and Republican numbers has been increasing
yeah that's not why starting sept 15 republicans started doing what they did in 2022 drop loads of questionable polls to move the polling avgs in their favor
I am democrat and still remember James Carville's comment about Pennsylvania. "It's Pittsburg and Philly with "Kentucky" in between". i could not stop laughing
You guys wonder why you have lost the rust belt lmao. Educated/ well off liberals come across as arrogant and your disdain for working class people in rural America is your current undoing
I drive through the middle of Pennsylvania twice a year. It's horrible to see how it got since Biden became president. There's no way the democrats can win that state.
@@Proteus_Ridleytrump. Kamala Harris goes against Christian values, and Amish are Christian’s who separate themselves from the rest of society. So there’s that
@@Proteus_Ridley Is this even a question? Firstly it is extremely unlikely for such a religious group to vote for candidate supporting abortion. Secondly Amish are very angry on Democrats for ban on raw milk sell.
@@miguelgameiro8063 they absolutely should have, unpasteurised milk is so dangerous one contaminated tank of milk could sicken and kill thousands of people
Maybe some but people like making money. If it was really completely biased for Trump based on nothing there'd be a wave of people betting on kamala to get good value on the bet.
I'm gonna sound like a bot for repeating this, but people have pointed out that them favouring Trump was only a recent thing, and has mostly been favouring Harris beforehand
Do you have any idea how much money is in that? It’s not like people will drop a million each in just to make trump look better. And besides Kamala was winning on polymarket for a long time
No, not really. It gets old long before the candidates are determined because the election cycle is so damm long. I'll take the 6 week UK elections any time
It’s actually black turnout in Philadelphia that’s Kamala’s biggest issue & trumps biggest issue is the Philly suburbs & Allegheny trending left. I’d also like to add that Trump has to turnout a lot of rural white low propensity voters that could also be an uphill climb.
Republican gains a LOT of low pripensity voters. The good news for them are they usually voted left. So it’s 2 points conversion from D to R, the bad news are they are low propensity voters so they might support him but might not turnout for him comes voting day like in 2022, but he also didn’t run in 2022 so..
@@jkdragonjk6895 democrats got high black turnout numerous times as well. The point is they’re both unreliable. He can get them out but to the numbers he needs remains to be seen.
I honestly feel like the rest of the country needs to do better. Letting Pennsylvanians decide the future of our country just doesn't seem like a wise move.
I grew up in PA since I was 13, really the truth of matter is candidates have to show up that is the real difference especially where candidates usually don't show up. Hillary lost because she spent less time in PA than trump did and the voters in the elect saw that. Trump this election got shot in PA, in Butler PA not far from Pittsburgh, he has all these rally's in small towns to large towns. its really just about being seen, for example there is a lot of parts in PA where in Philly is completely ignored i.e. Kensington Street where I hate say but Kamala doesn't appeal to because that area of Philly has been completely neglected by heavily democratic candidates and the flip side you have lot of rural counties in PA that are just equally neglected and they have poverty and drug problems. Again like Trump is in Lancaster serving McDonalds, like people made fun of him on the media, and made memes and hes going viral, but guess what to the average voter that McDonalds bit works for them because they saw their home town on TV and average voter is not going to fact check that. its all about being seen for people, that sways votes. Look am voting for Kamla but I see she's making the same mistakes Hillary did by not being present in PA we get lot of people stepping in for her as surrogates.
The "not crazy" factor has to come into play here, too. His rallies are smaller, he says insane things that then get televised...and we now have direct data from early voting. I'm not finding it likely that Trump wins PA. Too old. Too senile. Too crazy.
Really? For me it makes me cringe so much, I literally have to turn my eyes away from the screen, I cannot watch... EDIT: I'm not in any manner being hyperbolic btw, I'm being quite literal...
The only reason the races looks this close in Pennsylvania is republicans are doing. The same thing they did in 2022 dumping massive amounts of questionable polling. That moved the polling avgs, and it stated on almost the same date as it did in 2022 around Sept 15th
@@bamaramify Or not. I don't see people buying the crazypants grandpappy who double-jerks ghosts instead of answering questions and yells about the size of his...rallies (as well as other people's equipment). If the Amish actually sat through that, they wouldn't be voting for him either, but that's their hypocrisy talking again.
Factually incorrect, even when you adjust for historic polling accuracy, Trump is still well ahead of where he was at 4 or 8 years ago in PA. You will see very soon.
The 2022 polls weren't wrong at all, believing that they were is some massive cope. It's just that Democrats showed up in huge numbers. Both young people and women voted in a much larger percentage than usual, especially for a mid-term election. Roe vs Wade being overturned is what cost the Republicans that election. But people have short memories and abortion is now firmly a state issue which means it might help Democrats for governor elections, but no presidential elections, not anymore.
@@NotSoFakeTaxi How exactly would you have handled the situation with Joe Biden? Would you have kept him in? Would you have wanted someone else to be in place instead? If so, how do you think this could have been done in time to also allow that person to have time to campaign? All of this happened only around 3 months ago. Logistically, how do you see that happening?
@@smlorrin If they had a fair primary with debates and actual candidates, they would have had Kennedy probably. If the people voted biden, they should have left biden, not kicked him out. If he dropped out, then you should have a quick primary. Kamala is now a puppet.
What are y'all talking about? He's been on the money in presidential elections as long as I can remember. In 2016, when every outlet said Trump had no chance, he had Trump with a 33% chance of winning. He correctly predicted Obama in 2012 and Biden in 2020.
As a European, this is mind-blowing. Even right-wing (excluding radical-right) and center-right parties here lean toward Harris, who is considered right-leaning for European standards. If Trump wins again, it’ll be hard not to laugh-he’s just carelessly reckless. I still remember how confused he looked at the NATO summit trying to understand the GDP expenditure graph for military spending. It honestly rattles me a bit.
Don't be fooled, Europeans are becoming more and more nationalistic, the only thing that is different is that in Europe historically free market capitalist dogmas are not as rooted, so even right wingers support welfare and redistribution somewhat
Pennsylvanians: "WTH, we've hardly ever been *this* popular before..." ... I'm not from Pennsylvania, actual Pennsylvanians, can absolutely feel free to correct me 😅
There was no Biden signs. Then Harris was installed as the candidate and suddenly there was Harris signs out. Idk what to make of it. Im a PA Green voter.
@esquiredan2702 Green Party candidate is Jill Stein. I donr agree with her on all her polices. Just the top two issues I care most about. Plus if we can hit 5% nationally (possible not probable) it opens more doors
Both James Carville and the main Republican pollster for the Trafalgar Group have predicted that Harris will win Pennsylvania. Also, the gender gap is 15 points in Harris' favor, and Harris is polling 10% of Republicans. You need to reassess.
False. Trump is polling higher than her and he has won over unions. Kamala has lost Amish, black, and Latino momentum significantly. There are no signs pointing in her favor
The aggregate polls in both 2016 & 2020 underestimated Republican support by 3.5%. Apply that metric to the current polls & Trump wins with room to spare.
@@oldsenpai4337 just talking about it minizing pointless data like polls. 5 secs says it's wing state. Do you even know the parties policies? I don't no one talks about it.
Polls tend to underestimate Trump. I don't know why people don't understand this when it was the same in both 2016 and 2020. Just add 2-3% on Trumps result from polls and you are more accurate. He is winning all of the swingstates and possibly New Hampshire to.
@@windsolarupnorth7084 polls are complete quests work. Though the last month's they have gone all over the place. Each week they will conflict with each other.
5:24 am I missing something. The number of registered Republicans has barely increased compared to the increase in Democrats. How does this bode well for Trump??
I live in Conshohocken about 20 minutes outside of Philadelphia. I’m tired of these candidates coming out here. The traffic has sucked even more than usual. Elon, Kamala and Donald have been here a lot these past few months. I think Obama and Springsteen are expected to be in town too. Sheesh.
Yeah, I feel like it's important to mention the huge traffic increases they had after Musk said on some conservative show that Polymarket is the most accurate predictor. All of a sudden, they see a surge in betting and it's all for Trump. 🙄🤔
It's actually kind of absurd how everybody across the board seems to imply it has significantly more weight than it actually does. It could be easily manipulated + is theoretically not even supposed to allow US citizens to vote, so the data would be skewed toward foreign impressions
@@shanecrowe8517 Yeah, even though polymarket had Harris as the favourite for a lot longer than Trump, and even though most other bookmakers have him as the favourite.....but yeah......he has them all in his pocket, somehow.
I'm picturing Dwight from the Office on a huge power trip right now, going to each candidate and making them beg for his vote and pass beet related executive orders
@@TheGeorgeD13 you were not screaming to replace him with Harris in 2020, she was the first one to leave the primaries, why was his age not a issue in 2020, why did you vote for Joe Biden overwhelmingly in the primaries, Kamala is a worse candidate than Joe Biden
One thing that I think people need to watch is that it isn't just women who are affected by the abortion issue. Many Evangelical Christians voted for Trump based solely on his anti-abortion position and implicit promise of a nationwide ban. Trying to pivot the issue to states rights looks to them like a cynical power play and I think a lot more will stay home. There are also major ballot initiatives this election in both Arizona and Florida which I think makes them Harris territory despite the polls.
Well as an anti-abortion evangelical myself, I don’t think that your synopsis is accurate, and I question how often you actually speak with evangelicals on a day to day basis. Trump gets huge bonus points for setting up the conditions that ended Roe/Casey. I’m voting for him in large part because of his defense of life, to where Democrats now have to actually argue why killing your child at any point up to the moment of birth is a good thing for society. We’ve been arguing that it should be a states’ issue this whole time. Hopefully we can gradually get people to realize that killing your child should be unthinkable, and in the meantime we can advance steps to provide women with more resources so they don’t feel trapped.
Love your stuff, however as a Pittsburgher, the stock photo for Pittsburgh was not actually of the city. Lol. Regardless keep up the good work love your stuff!
And to think that this Swing State's Governer was almost Harris's running mate. By the way, I recommend Legal Eagle's video on Elon Musk's recent Pennsylvania voter registration lottery.
@@smlorrin I don't if it would but there have been many instances by the past of candidates picking a running mate because of the afformentionned running mate being from a swing state in the hopes of winning said state. So I find interesting that it wasn't the strategy that Harris chose. Especially since Pennsylvania was key to Trump's victory in 2016.
@@cosmedelustrac5842i hear you but Walz is generally likable and easy to appeal. It's not easy to say he doesn't care about America's future when he is a veteran and teacher.
@@CodeGibbon I agree. I think that Walz is better than Shapiro. And I am fascinated by the fact that he was chosen for what you mentionned over someone who was from a crucial swing state. This strategy says a lot about Harris.
@@cosmedelustrac5842I think she should’ve picked Shapiro as that could have increased her chances at getting the state. Though, his Israel stance would’ve been problematic for Democrats. Pennsylvania is an absolute must, giving that away was probably foolish. And Shapiro could alleviate swing voters concerns of Harris’ liberal portrayed past.
@@TheCountess666 we are having 4 years of multi wars, open borders, economic hardship. Everything is a disaster. We don’t need another 4 years of this.
It has been trending the opposite direction specifically because Trump turned most of the historically blue, Hispanic heavy Rio Grande Valley Red save for one . And I understand why. For that particular community, Trump kept his promise. He promised them oil and gas jobs(The region is a part of the Permian Basin which is rich in shale oil and especially gas) while the Democrats allowed their small but very vocal far left representatives to scream about how they will defund those exact jobs in favor of green energy (which is not an issue. You can have both and eventually let green energy phase out fossil fuels on the basis of cost alone as has happened in North Texas) and during his tenure, the region boomed economically more than it had under previous Presidents(including Obama under whom the shale gas boom began) so they voted for the candidate that promised them jobs and economic growth and actually delivered. So even though Trump lost in 2020, Texas went more Red when it had been trending blue before 2016. Indeed, there is that particular pattern emerging across the entire American West from Arizona to Utah of Hispanics shifting to Republicans solely on economic issues. A lot of them see California which is quite often next door to many of these states and they say NOOOOPE!! See how in Nevada Republicans are outpacing Democrats even in Early voting, an area where Democrats have always had a lead ,simply because a lot of the working class in Las Vegas is facing a cost of living and housing crisis and that crisis did not exist under Trump. The opposite ,in fact, which is why Nevada had a constant stream of people moving in from the Pacific states. Trump has made gains with minorities despite his racist rhetoric because a lot simply do not care as long as they are able to make bank. I understand why some Black men are shifting to Trump too on this basis alone. Just check the stats. Median wages for Black men rose sharply under his tenure then they stagnated under Biden while the CoL crisis (which did begin under Trump in 2020 due to COVID but he has that as an excuse. Biden's administration made it worse. Remember when Americans were told it was Transitory in 2021 and 2022. How is it going so far???) has eaten into their salaries.
It won't this year. But if it ever does say goodbye to the Republican party. Or American democracy. That's why Republicans so badly need to win this year. To prevent something like that from ever happening. If Dems win they desperately needing a voting rights act. So there's a chance it can flip.
Get over it people, You cant see the forest for the trees. One state does not decide the presidency. I continue to be amazed but the stupidity of most of my fellow citizens.
But his is heavily weighted aggregate based on what points he thinks would affect election day, true aggregators is RCP and so far it’s all red in 7 states. For example when Rasmussen showed R+2 he said he wighted it so it means R+0 based on past biases. But when Quinnipiac that had errors of D+5 past elections put out even numbers that didn’t affect his aggregate to R showing somehow based on past performances they are not biased to D, although being consistent means Trump wins by 5 point which also a bollocks numbers if you asked me. So he has to tweak it a LOT
The fact that our entire democratic process hinges on a couple of dipsticks in the north east fighting over who gets to use the last brain cell is absolutely insane.
PA only matters because both campaign likely needed 1 states in Rust Belt, and PA is the most likely to flip. BUT that’s assuming PA is most friendly towards the Trump out of the three, and there are cases to be made that it might not be the case. Wi and MI lately has shown different trend than PA which is bad for Harris. That means she has to win 2 coin toss while Trump only has to win 1. Hence the 2 to 1 odds in the betting market.
She's behind in every swing state. Only in MI is Trump up barely +1 so I give her that state...She likely loses all the remaining 6 and gets stuck between 234-238 EVs.
@@xijin9154 She's not going to do that bad in the sunbelt, her worst swing state is Arizona, that's where Trump´s attacks hit the most (particularly regarding the border) and even then Gallego leads every single senate poll. Nevada will be blue, Nevada polls look extremely off, the state never favored Trump and the 2 most populous counties do the most to help democrats. Georgia is about turnout and campaigning, Biden won the state in 2020 with Harris as VP, she just needs to tap into the right demographics to win there.
@@caiolucas8257 Kari Lake is not a strong Senate candidate he was always going to win. With historic turnout Biden barely edged a win. Kamala is no Biden and black support in key battlegrounds has been atrocious. It's coping at best. Her disastrous interviews coupled with dismal support from key voting blocs will cost her.
That completely goes against the idea of the republic. The USA is a literal union of states. It's literally in the name too. It was never made to be as monolithic or as centralized as most other countries. In fact, this promise was how it got the less populous colonies to come aboard. After all, if it was direct popular vote, what representation do the less populous colonies even have other than just to yell at how much they disagree with what the more populous colonies would do? This was also why the Senate was made. That does NOT mean population does not matter ofc. The House of Representatives is population based and the number of reps in each state do get represented in the EC count. The EC is # of house reps + # of senators, which is always 2. The house is what basically balances the EC out for the populous states but it's not like they don't matter. California is still crucial to a Dem win and TX is still crucial to a GOP win even though both states are generally partisan toward a party, California more so.
@@megamonster1234 👆maga gaslighting for getting away with a heavily republican biased election system. There is already a mechanism to account for representation of less populous states (the senate). There is no reason for giving Republican votes more weight in the presidential election. It's an unfair system that goes straight against the principle of one person one vote
Have seen plenty of pledges from Republicans voting Harris, have not seen the other way around so I'm sure the conversion rate is higher for Repubs voting Dems than vice-versa, especially in early voting.
@@DJ-ov2itIn PA, absolutely. It was that way in 2016 and 2020. Registered Dems outnumbered Reps by almost one million in 2016, yet he still won because he was able to appeal to disaffected Dems. Your arrogance is completely misplaced since you are plainly wrong.
Important note: Seeing as TLDR only used 2020 early voting data, it is quite important to add that the current early voting numbers %wise seem to mirror the 2022 midterms more, not in raw vote data, but %wise and only around 1/4 of PA registered voters do vote early (2022 midterms), so most of it will come down to the election day in-person vote, in other words, even though TLDR is usually thorough, this video is quite sloppy.
That’s not true. Plenty of politicians would still require rural voters to win. Plus, the electoral college means every rural voter between the coasts is ignored as a guaranteed Republican. But sure, let a bunch of coastal suburbanites decide the presidency
@@Catmint309to be fair though that is the majority of the people. It’s kinda crazy a politician could win 15 million + of the popular vote over another candidate and yet still not be the presidential elect.
Look I'm just glad for the discussion. In both cases the way it is now it's a very slim selection of locations I feel. I live in the state that votes first in the primary so we get visits during January and February. On those years where we have a primary.
Kinda dishearted over the fact that the guy who suggested we inject bleach into our bodies to fight covid is about to become President of the United States AGAIN.
@@TheCountess666 "His comments came after William Bryan, the undersecretary for science and technology at the Department of Homeland Security, presented a study that found sun exposure and cleaning agents like bleach can kill the virus when it lingers on surfaces."
Pennsylvania sounds a bit like my congressional district though more detail needed to be sure. That is a bad part about American politics, so much focus on federal elections with far less on state and local that can actually better clarify what happens in federal and why
This continues to cement my extreme dislike for the elctoral college. Come on trump lost by a little over 6 million votes last time yet those thousands of voters matter more in many of these 'swing' states.
@@paulschmitz9175Just say you hate democracy and want your arbitrarily favored minority to decide elections. I guarantee you would be whining 24/7 if the EC disproportionately favored urban voters.
@@DJ-ov2it That's both ironic & hilarious considering your support of a candidate that received as many Democrat primary votes as I did - ZERO! How very Soviet of you comrade!
@@paulschmitz9175 #1: Nice dodge. #2: If you really want to try and argue that the Biden voters wouldnt have equally voted Harris, take your meds and zip it.
Following the polls has given me a new sense of anxiety. Now once election day comes it's all over, people who have only been talking about the election are out of a job and we'll just have to see how the new president and congress set up goes. But waiting for new results and watching it swing between both sides when it's not just a close tie but any shift could mean a win and even the safe states are within the margin of error. Georgia has polled consistently Republican, but it's still a swing state that could lose Trump the election, if it turns out to be Democrat and all those electoral votes go to Harris I imagine a lot of people will be upset with the pollsters along with making more claims of rigging. Maybe not likely but we're overdue to overhaul the electoral college system.
Huh. The conveninet timing of this upload. All I can hope for is that we won't be witnessing the end of democracy in USA due to social media trash, ai and powerhunger having a good team hug together.
Kamala messed up hugely by endorsing Walz as her VP. All nominating a VP does is make the state they are governor of more likely to vote for you party. A good VP does very little to actually influence an election in any other state, Vance was a horrible pick for Trump and he hasn't huet his chances. Minnesota was never going to flip to a Republican majority so picking a VP from there is useless, she should have picked Shapiro in order to confirm Pennsylvania as Democrat.
Shapiro had all sorts of negative press coming out about him while she was in the selection process (fairly or unfairly piled on by his rivals as has been alleged. But John Fetterman, the US Senator from PA mentioned in this video even flat out told her not to do it) and she definitely didn't need that kind of attention to blunt her momentum. Plus he's viewed as having an arguably stronger Pro-Israel stance, which could have easily reignited and fanned tensions within the party as opposed to maintaining the unity she had brought. Essentially, she wouldn't even be this close to winning overall with Shapiro as VP regardless of if he added a few percentage points in PA. 🤷🏻♂️
Shapiro is a jew who served in the IDF (so much for loyalty) and the DNC has a problem with muslims and their blind support of Israel....that is how politics works.
Same here waking up every 14th of each month to 210,000 dollars it's a blessing to l and my family... I can now retire knowing that I have a steady income❤️Big gratitude to Maria Frances Hanlon
@Chuck-js8dy "From Texas and a democrat voting trump" "From NYC and a democrat voting against Harris here" Wow you are from 3 states that's very surprising you are truly a special democrat
Yes, a $2,108,532,982 cap betting market on the election winner being influenced by a single guy, you could dump millions and change it by a fraction of a percent. What would be the point of betting millions if you're going to lose it all anyway? To trick people by... throwing all your money away? Putting up a facade for a week? What's the point.
I would just like to point out that, after this video was published, Nate Silver's aggregate updated. It now has Trump up in PA, 48.2% to Harris' 48.0%.
I live in Allegheny county. It really does depend on what happens here, the grandma and Grandpas. That and the black male vote in Philly. I'm not sure if it's there.
2:03: ? No, that's a lot of swing states and you didn't even show Texas and Florida. 2:59: It is not just erratic, it's also fascist. 4:25: This part is actually concerning.
Please stop using fascism as a term to describe Trump. A more accurate term is populist. He is not a radical authoritarian, despite what some people might paint him as.
Tell that to France Germany and Britain who are all being run by coalition governments representing smaller vote shares than their opposition but were properly geographically located.
@@mni892 dont tell fake news. Germany is purely using the popular vote. If a party gets 40% they get 40% of the seats. Government Coalitions got the higher voter share in like 98% of elections with minory goverments being rarly formed
It's not the same thing, they get their votes based on how many people voted for their party The United States has just two parties and the electoral college shows that a small minority gets to decide their leader instead of the majority of people therefore it undermines democracy itself
@@shanecrowe8517 Realclearpolitics. It's now tied for popular vote, Biden was up 8% in 2020. Harris is far behind and will be the first Democrat to lose popular vote since Kerry in 2004.
@@windsolarupnorth7084 unfortunately, RealClearPolitics doesn't hold particularly high standards for their averages and weigh low rated pollsters like Trafalgar the same as others with A ratings. They also have a data pool skewed heavily towards Republican funded and/or ideologically leaning pollsters vs the number of independent and Democratic funded and/or ideologically leaning. So I'd take their "tie" with a grain or two of salt. 🤷🏻♂️
CORRECTION: At 5:00, the bar charts are mislabelled - 2024 and 2020 should be switched around. Apologies for the error, and we hope you nonetheless enjoyed the vid!
Sorry but that’s also wrong, the Republican number is bigger by 100K in 2024 compared to 2020 while democrat is decreasing. You charts shows both increasing and decreasing which makes Democrat position looks better.
This is the year where both Democrat number is decreasing and Republican numbers has been increasing
Yeah, I noticed that that graph was off as soon as you presented it. I'd appreciate seeing it replaced with an accurate one.
When you are going to apologize for the shilling for Keir Starmer?
yeah that's not why starting sept 15 republicans started doing what they did in 2022 drop loads of questionable polls to move the polling avgs in their favor
@@yudistiraliem135 yup. the democrat bars should be switched around.
I'll win Pennsylvania, watch me.
you can do it
You've got my vote
You’ve got my vote
Please do.
Didn't you already do it tho...?
mr Netflix u won at least half the world already my guy
Ah yes, the whole election comes down to 1 state, sigh
And all the others put together... Yes that's how it works.
@@maurokjr984 Last time I checked, California isn't a swing state and Texas is unlikely to flip.
@@maurokjr984 about 6 swing states decide the winner, which is why the Electoral college sucks
It quite literally did in 2000.
@@maurokjr984Scroll down for people who don't get it and think only one state matters.
Ah yes American democracy. Where one state can decide the fate if the whole country
We are a constitutional republic, not a democracy. How many times must this simple fact be repeated to you?
america is a business not a country, obviously they can buy the votes of a minority of the population and then hold absolute power
@@TheAmericanPrometheus you don't even know what it means man...
@@Prophetofcthulhu sure, sure.
@@TheAmericanPrometheus You are a democracy. A representative democracy. Why can't you understand that simple fact?
I am democrat and still remember James Carville's comment about Pennsylvania. "It's Pittsburg and Philly with "Kentucky" in between". i could not stop laughing
You guys wonder why you have lost the rust belt lmao. Educated/ well off liberals come across as arrogant and your disdain for working class people in rural America is your current undoing
Kentucky has a Democratic Governor Andy Beshear
Pennsyltucky is what we call it
Yeah I’m in PA we call the middle part “Pennsyl-tucky”
I drive through the middle of Pennsylvania twice a year. It's horrible to see how it got since Biden became president. There's no way the democrats can win that state.
Over 100,000 Amish have registered to vote for the first time in history, so there is that
Sorry, no Id, no vote. And most of them don't have valid Id.
Who are they most likely to vote for??
@@Proteus_Ridleytrump. Kamala Harris goes against Christian values, and Amish are Christian’s who separate themselves from the rest of society. So there’s that
@@Proteus_Ridley Is this even a question? Firstly it is extremely unlikely for such a religious group to vote for candidate supporting abortion. Secondly Amish are very angry on Democrats for ban on raw milk sell.
@@Hadar1991 I don't even know what Amish is, but thank you for a response.
Apparently the Amish are registering for the Republicans in big numbers they normally only have about 10% turnout
The government should have not gone after that farm close to DC
@@miguelgameiro8063 they absolutely should have, unpasteurised milk is so dangerous one contaminated tank of milk could sicken and kill thousands of people
Oh yes, the significant Amish vote which takes up a whole 2/3rd of a percent of the population of Pennsylvania.
@@miguelgameiro8063 raw milk is so dangerous I wouldn't vote for any politician who wasn't against it
@@od9694 just leave the Amish alone they are not going to do anything
Pollimarket, a crypto exchange, favorers the pro-crypto candidate? Ohnooo who could have guessed?
Agreed, but betters could arbitrage.
Predict It also has Trump up
Maybe some but people like making money. If it was really completely biased for Trump based on nothing there'd be a wave of people betting on kamala to get good value on the bet.
I'm gonna sound like a bot for repeating this, but people have pointed out that them favouring Trump was only a recent thing, and has mostly been favouring Harris beforehand
Do you have any idea how much money is in that? It’s not like people will drop a million each in just to make trump look better. And besides Kamala was winning on polymarket for a long time
The US election is the worlds most entertaining reality show
No, not really. It gets old long before the candidates are determined because the election cycle is so damm long. I'll take the 6 week UK elections any time
Tbh as a Canadian it fills me with dread more than it entertains me
As a maldivian with literally nothing at stake, yeah fr
It's like comedic horror... At times, hilarious, but sometimes so horrifying, you need to look away from the screen.
Haha no. The outcome of a reality show doesn't have global consequences.
The biggest problem with this video is citing Nate Silver even once
It’s actually black turnout in Philadelphia that’s Kamala’s biggest issue & trumps biggest issue is the Philly suburbs & Allegheny trending left. I’d also like to add that Trump has to turnout a lot of rural white low propensity voters that could also be an uphill climb.
Republican gains a LOT of low pripensity voters. The good news for them are they usually voted left. So it’s 2 points conversion from D to R, the bad news are they are low propensity voters so they might support him but might not turnout for him comes voting day like in 2022, but he also didn’t run in 2022 so..
Scott Presler has been doing the Lord's work getting rural voter to turn out for Trump.
I mean he did it once. So it’s not like it’s an impossible task
PA is full of hood rats, karens and union goons. How anyone could vote for dems after driving thru philly is insane.
@@jkdragonjk6895 democrats got high black turnout numerous times as well. The point is they’re both unreliable. He can get them out but to the numbers he needs remains to be seen.
I honestly feel like the rest of the country needs to do better. Letting Pennsylvanians decide the future of our country just doesn't seem like a wise move.
After paying Pensilvanians to go vote red, i'd be pretty optimistic, too.
Musk spending his own money to, in effect, bribe voters, is preferable to Dems bribing voters with taxpayer money to pay off their student loans.
I grew up in PA since I was 13, really the truth of matter is candidates have to show up that is the real difference especially where candidates usually don't show up. Hillary lost because she spent less time in PA than trump did and the voters in the elect saw that. Trump this election got shot in PA, in Butler PA not far from Pittsburgh, he has all these rally's in small towns to large towns. its really just about being seen, for example there is a lot of parts in PA where in Philly is completely ignored i.e. Kensington Street where I hate say but Kamala doesn't appeal to because that area of Philly has been completely neglected by heavily democratic candidates and the flip side you have lot of rural counties in PA that are just equally neglected and they have poverty and drug problems.
Again like Trump is in Lancaster serving McDonalds, like people made fun of him on the media, and made memes and hes going viral, but guess what to the average voter that McDonalds bit works for them because they saw their home town on TV and average voter is not going to fact check that. its all about being seen for people, that sways votes.
Look am voting for Kamla but I see she's making the same mistakes Hillary did by not being present in PA we get lot of people stepping in for her as surrogates.
Hey would you explain why are you voting for kamala?? Totally want to understand your viewpoint
@@sakshamgarg7618yeah I agree, you actually seem pretty rational!
She isn’t however making the same mistakes - given she actually is doing rallies in the Rustbelt States.
The "not crazy" factor has to come into play here, too. His rallies are smaller, he says insane things that then get televised...and we now have direct data from early voting.
I'm not finding it likely that Trump wins PA. Too old. Too senile. Too crazy.
@@sakshamgarg7618 it’s always some exhausted vague talking point about “democracy” or “hope” or “trumps a fascist”
Welcome to the United States of Pennsylvania.
United Commonwealth*
This PA voter is voting Green. Lol
@@LeftWingNationalist wasted vote sadly :(
You are hurting your own cause
im blaming the person who voted playboi carti on his ballot
Are you tryna tell me that Playboi Carti won't be the next president? 😭
Lmao, I saw that on the playboi carti subreddit too
hes not big now but in 2028 he will be there
This is such an useless video. You can make another one “why democrats are confident they’ll win penn” both of them are confident
the clip of trump dancing makes me laugh every time
"No music, only me." 😊
Pleasuring ghosts again
It makes my eyeballs bleed every time.
Trump is an embarrassment for the USA!
Really? For me it makes me cringe so much, I literally have to turn my eyes away from the screen, I cannot watch...
EDIT: I'm not in any manner being hyperbolic btw, I'm being quite literal...
As an european, I can not fathom how anyone could ever support Trump
You should focus on vôn der leyen who does nothing for Europe
Look at the failed integration of the Islamist invasion of Europe and then think again, European.
@@MarktYertddon’t worry, we do that too. But when things look bad we just look across the pond for a quick cheer up of “well it’s not that kinda bad”.
European with trash politics mocks USA's far better politics.
Should I remind you of the terrible people we have elected as europeans ? Democracy is the freedom to make your own mistakes
The only reason the races looks this close in Pennsylvania is republicans are doing. The same thing they did in 2022 dumping massive amounts of questionable polling. That moved the polling avgs, and it stated on almost the same date as it did in 2022 around Sept 15th
Or people are changing opinions and the Amish getting involved is actually huge
Trump has over performed polls in the last 2 presidential elections. It's safe to say that if the trend continues he will win big
@@bamaramify Or not. I don't see people buying the crazypants grandpappy who double-jerks ghosts instead of answering questions and yells about the size of his...rallies (as well as other people's equipment).
If the Amish actually sat through that, they wouldn't be voting for him either, but that's their hypocrisy talking again.
Factually incorrect, even when you adjust for historic polling accuracy, Trump is still well ahead of where he was at 4 or 8 years ago in PA. You will see very soon.
The 2022 polls weren't wrong at all, believing that they were is some massive cope. It's just that Democrats showed up in huge numbers. Both young people and women voted in a much larger percentage than usual, especially for a mid-term election. Roe vs Wade being overturned is what cost the Republicans that election. But people have short memories and abortion is now firmly a state issue which means it might help Democrats for governor elections, but no presidential elections, not anymore.
Remember when Elon said that whichever party retires their old candidate first will win the election?
Guess which party did that.
Kamal didnt earn her way into this race.
@@NotSoFakeTaxi How exactly would you have handled the situation with Joe Biden? Would you have kept him in? Would you have wanted someone else to be in place instead? If so, how do you think this could have been done in time to also allow that person to have time to campaign? All of this happened only around 3 months ago. Logistically, how do you see that happening?
@@smlorrin If they had a fair primary with debates and actual candidates, they would have had Kennedy probably. If the people voted biden, they should have left biden, not kicked him out. If he dropped out, then you should have a quick primary. Kamala is now a puppet.
@@smlorrin I would let a real primary happen and not rigged it by sueing RFK in the first place. But Dems have rigged primaries 3 cycles in a row now.
@@smlorrin it's the democrats fault for letting in a senile man as president, while claiming that he's perfectly fine 🤷♂️
Why do we care what Nate Silver has to say at this point?
I know, right? He's been wrong plenty.
And his pay daddy is Pete “democracy can’t exist” Thiele
You would care if he said what you want to hear.
Honestly with Nate Silvers record I hope he predicts the candidate I don't want to win is going to win 😂
What are y'all talking about? He's been on the money in presidential elections as long as I can remember. In 2016, when every outlet said Trump had no chance, he had Trump with a 33% chance of winning. He correctly predicted Obama in 2012 and Biden in 2020.
As a European, this is mind-blowing. Even right-wing (excluding radical-right) and center-right parties here lean toward Harris, who is considered right-leaning for European standards. If Trump wins again, it’ll be hard not to laugh-he’s just carelessly reckless. I still remember how confused he looked at the NATO summit trying to understand the GDP expenditure graph for military spending. It honestly rattles me a bit.
Republicans consider the tories to beleft wing and labour to be far left
you are afraid of trump, bcoz if he comes to power, Europe has to pay their fair share in nato
Thank god we don't take our marching orders from you guys anymore.
As a European, I have to say that what you're saying is false. A lot of Conservative parties want him
Don't be fooled, Europeans are becoming more and more nationalistic, the only thing that is different is that in Europe historically free market capitalist dogmas are not as rooted, so even right wingers support welfare and redistribution somewhat
Pennsylvanians: "WTH, we've hardly ever been *this* popular before..."
...
I'm not from Pennsylvania, actual Pennsylvanians, can absolutely feel free to correct me 😅
They get popular every four years.
They have been the swing state for the last 3 presidential elections. Before them, Ohio was the core swing state, then Florida.
We are the keystone state for a reason after all. Surprisingly important with how quiet we tend to be.
Pennsylvania has always been relevant politically, I don't think they're going down the Ohio route
Nah it's like this every el3ctio w3 pretty much always decide it
I was in Pennsylvania last month I saw 60+ Trump signs to like 5 harris ones
There was no Biden signs. Then Harris was installed as the candidate and suddenly there was Harris signs out.
Idk what to make of it. Im a PA Green voter.
Be sure to let everyone know when signs turn out to vote.
@@LeftWingNationalistWhat’s a Green voter? Not Jill Stein, I assume?
Land does not vote and signs do not vote either
@esquiredan2702 Green Party candidate is Jill Stein. I donr agree with her on all her polices. Just the top two issues I care most about. Plus if we can hit 5% nationally (possible not probable) it opens more doors
Bout to vote as a Pennsylvanian living in Glasgow 😮
hopefully u pick the correct candidate
@@Vigmastertrump
@@Hispanocel wrong
@@Vigmaster Trump 2024 baby illegal immigration has affected Pennsylvania and Kamala Harris and her border policies are catastrophic
@@Hispanocel so has the aborting ban affected Pennsylvanians and trump’s tariffs on steel and aluminum will effect pennsylvanians negatively
That Allegheny to PA graph is exemplary of why TLDR are absolutely smashing it
Both James Carville and the main Republican pollster for the Trafalgar Group have predicted that Harris will win Pennsylvania. Also, the gender gap is 15 points in Harris' favor, and Harris is polling 10% of Republicans. You need to reassess.
False. Trump is polling higher than her and he has won over unions. Kamala has lost Amish, black, and Latino momentum significantly. There are no signs pointing in her favor
Trafalgar has Trump +3
Keep drinking the Kool Aid.
You probably also believe Trump co wrote project 2025
The aggregate polls in both 2016 & 2020 underestimated Republican support by 3.5%. Apply that metric to the current polls & Trump wins with room to spare.
Gubernatorial.. silly word
Funny word
It is as if the whole of American political lexicon could pass off as Warhammer 40,000’s in-game language, the “High Gothic”.
I'm a gay black man and I'm voting for Donald J Trump. This is a question of good vs evil. I can't vote for evil
Every racist supports Trump also.
@@williamg8269there is radicals on either side. I’m Hispanic and I think we’re done with the democrats
Polls are inaccurate why so many videos on bad data?
The poll have been wrong since 2016.
how would you showcase info about the upcoming election? just curious.
@@oldsenpai4337 just talking about it minizing pointless data like polls. 5 secs says it's wing state. Do you even know the parties policies? I don't no one talks about it.
Polls tend to underestimate Trump. I don't know why people don't understand this when it was the same in both 2016 and 2020. Just add 2-3% on Trumps result from polls and you are more accurate. He is winning all of the swingstates and possibly New Hampshire to.
@@windsolarupnorth7084 polls are complete quests work. Though the last month's they have gone all over the place. Each week they will conflict with each other.
5:24 am I missing something. The number of registered Republicans has barely increased compared to the increase in Democrats. How does this bode well for Trump??
TLDR
As an European [Irrelevant comment following]
Guess they saw the Trump video did better then the Kamala one.
Shame.
The people have spoken.
Shame
The democracy folks BTW 😂😂😂
*than
I live in Conshohocken about 20 minutes outside of Philadelphia. I’m tired of these candidates coming out here. The traffic has sucked even more than usual. Elon, Kamala and Donald have been here a lot these past few months. I think Obama and Springsteen are expected to be in town too. Sheesh.
Every day. Every day. 76 is all red on the map. -KOP
The amount of traffic jams I’ve been in cause of Kamala makes me miss living in a one party state 😭
Polymarket can't be mentioned without it's controversial value as a predictor, you just skimped over that
Yeah, I feel like it's important to mention the huge traffic increases they had after Musk said on some conservative show that Polymarket is the most accurate predictor. All of a sudden, they see a surge in betting and it's all for Trump. 🙄🤔
@@shanecrowe8517just look at the nationwide polling for trump
It's actually kind of absurd how everybody across the board seems to imply it has significantly more weight than it actually does. It could be easily manipulated + is theoretically not even supposed to allow US citizens to vote, so the data would be skewed toward foreign impressions
these are right wing talking points and TLDR is likely taking money from them
@@shanecrowe8517 Yeah, even though polymarket had Harris as the favourite for a lot longer than Trump, and even though most other bookmakers have him as the favourite.....but yeah......he has them all in his pocket, somehow.
I'm picturing Dwight from the Office on a huge power trip right now, going to each candidate and making them beg for his vote and pass beet related executive orders
If only Pennsylvania was divided into two states...
i dont think America can survive another extremely old president....
Kamala isn’t young she’s 60 Tim is also that, JD is young, Biden age wasn’t a problem for you guys when he was running
@@Hispanocel "you guys"...Sir Trump is IN mental decline, he even refuses to show proof of his mental health. Biden did...
Hispanocel, yes Biden’s age was a problem, which is why we were SCREAMING to replace him with Harris and that’s why they eventually did it.
@@TheGeorgeD13 you were not screaming to replace him with Harris in 2020, she was the first one to leave the primaries, why was his age not a issue in 2020, why did you vote for Joe Biden overwhelmingly in the primaries, Kamala is a worse candidate than Joe Biden
60 is middle aged. Trump is going to be in his 80s in office. @@Hispanocel
I live in Pittsburgh and though I think Kamala will win Allegheny county I see 3 trump signs in peoples yards for every 2 Kamala.
Allegheny will shift a few points leftward at the end. Trump did worse there in 2016 than Romney did in 2012. Nes not improving there now
@williamg8269 Likely, I'm just saying it isn't normally like this here and it's usually more clear cut as to the way it will go here.
- Orange man bad!!!😭😭😭
- Nooooooo, Orange man good!!!😭😭😭
American politics in a nutshell
What an insightful analysis on political, you are incredibly smart mate
Replace "orange man" with "billionaire politician" and you'll see how crazy the situation is.
@stereomachine Isn't it a pretty well known fact that he's nowhere near as rich as he claimed?
@@stereomachineyou assume billionaires are not backing the opposition...
The partisan brainrot is real
Me when I oversimplify something to the point that it loses all meaning.
One thing that I think people need to watch is that it isn't just women who are affected by the abortion issue. Many Evangelical Christians voted for Trump based solely on his anti-abortion position and implicit promise of a nationwide ban. Trying to pivot the issue to states rights looks to them like a cynical power play and I think a lot more will stay home. There are also major ballot initiatives this election in both Arizona and Florida which I think makes them Harris territory despite the polls.
Well as an anti-abortion evangelical myself, I don’t think that your synopsis is accurate, and I question how often you actually speak with evangelicals on a day to day basis. Trump gets huge bonus points for setting up the conditions that ended Roe/Casey. I’m voting for him in large part because of his defense of life, to where Democrats now have to actually argue why killing your child at any point up to the moment of birth is a good thing for society.
We’ve been arguing that it should be a states’ issue this whole time. Hopefully we can gradually get people to realize that killing your child should be unthinkable, and in the meantime we can advance steps to provide women with more resources so they don’t feel trapped.
Love your stuff, however as a Pittsburgher, the stock photo for Pittsburgh was not actually of the city. Lol. Regardless keep up the good work love your stuff!
Complain about election fortification.
Do nothing.
Lose.
Repeat.
And to think that this Swing State's Governer was almost Harris's running mate. By the way, I recommend Legal Eagle's video on Elon Musk's recent Pennsylvania voter registration lottery.
As a Pennsylvanian, I love Governor Shapiro. However, I don't think that making him the VP candidate would have been a slam dunk either.
@@smlorrin I don't if it would but there have been many instances by the past of candidates picking a running mate because of the afformentionned running mate being from a swing state in the hopes of winning said state. So I find interesting that it wasn't the strategy that Harris chose. Especially since Pennsylvania was key to Trump's victory in 2016.
@@cosmedelustrac5842i hear you but Walz is generally likable and easy to appeal. It's not easy to say he doesn't care about America's future when he is a veteran and teacher.
@@CodeGibbon I agree. I think that Walz is better than Shapiro. And I am fascinated by the fact that he was chosen for what you mentionned over someone who was from a crucial swing state. This strategy says a lot about Harris.
@@cosmedelustrac5842I think she should’ve picked Shapiro as that could have increased her chances at getting the state. Though, his Israel stance would’ve been problematic for Democrats. Pennsylvania is an absolute must, giving that away was probably foolish. And Shapiro could alleviate swing voters concerns of Harris’ liberal portrayed past.
Hi! I'm planning to watch the election in France
At what time should I start watching the results on TV?
You are 6 hours ahead of us.. so for you, probably around 12 or 1 in the morning. It'll be going on until about 8 or 9am. All through the night.
In the US the polls generally close between 7:00 pm to 8:00 pm, there's a 6 hour time difference between the US and France, so 1:00 am
@@tylerries9279 @redrave404 thanks !
PA for Trump. Red wave.
For everyone's sake, lets hope not.
@@TheCountess666 we are having 4 years of multi wars, open borders, economic hardship. Everything is a disaster. We don’t need another 4 years of this.
@@TheCountess666 For your sake let's hope so 😂
Let‘s hope for the same Red Wave from 2022 that was a Nothing Burger!!!
MAGAAA
so much trump dancing lmao
What if texas flipped blue, that would be the craziest curveball
It has been trending the opposite direction specifically because Trump turned most of the historically blue, Hispanic heavy Rio Grande Valley Red save for one . And I understand why. For that particular community, Trump kept his promise. He promised them oil and gas jobs(The region is a part of the Permian Basin which is rich in shale oil and especially gas) while the Democrats allowed their small but very vocal far left representatives to scream about how they will defund those exact jobs in favor of green energy (which is not an issue. You can have both and eventually let green energy phase out fossil fuels on the basis of cost alone as has happened in North Texas) and during his tenure, the region boomed economically more than it had under previous Presidents(including Obama under whom the shale gas boom began) so they voted for the candidate that promised them jobs and economic growth and actually delivered. So even though Trump lost in 2020, Texas went more Red when it had been trending blue before 2016. Indeed, there is that particular pattern emerging across the entire American West from Arizona to Utah of Hispanics shifting to Republicans solely on economic issues. A lot of them see California which is quite often next door to many of these states and they say NOOOOPE!! See how in Nevada Republicans are outpacing Democrats even in Early voting, an area where Democrats have always had a lead ,simply because a lot of the working class in Las Vegas is facing a cost of living and housing crisis and that crisis did not exist under Trump. The opposite ,in fact, which is why Nevada had a constant stream of people moving in from the Pacific states.
Trump has made gains with minorities despite his racist rhetoric because a lot simply do not care as long as they are able to make bank. I understand why some Black men are shifting to Trump too on this basis alone.
Just check the stats. Median wages for Black men rose sharply under his tenure then they stagnated under Biden while the CoL crisis (which did begin under Trump in 2020 due to COVID but he has that as an excuse. Biden's administration made it worse. Remember when Americans were told it was Transitory in 2021 and 2022. How is it going so far???) has eaten into their salaries.
It won't this year. But if it ever does say goodbye to the Republican party. Or American democracy. That's why Republicans so badly need to win this year. To prevent something like that from ever happening. If Dems win they desperately needing a voting rights act. So there's a chance it can flip.
Get over it people, You cant see the forest for the trees. One state does not decide the presidency. I continue to be amazed but the stupidity of most of my fellow citizens.
Nate Silver, that guy is probably the most inconsistent pollster in recent memory. I would take anything he says into absolute scrutiny 😂
It's not his poll it's an aggregate of multiple polls
He's not a pollster lol
But his is heavily weighted aggregate based on what points he thinks would affect election day, true aggregators is RCP and so far it’s all red in 7 states.
For example when Rasmussen showed R+2 he said he wighted it so it means R+0 based on past biases. But when Quinnipiac that had errors of D+5 past elections put out even numbers that didn’t affect his aggregate to R showing somehow based on past performances they are not biased to D, although being consistent means Trump wins by 5 point which also a bollocks numbers if you asked me. So he has to tweak it a LOT
i hope he doesn't win my state
0:06 Instantly checking his phone
That’s his clicker he uses for the videos to click through different slides and stuff
It's kinda hilarious. A brief pause, like he did a double take on what he'd just said. "Wait, Pensylvania?"
Isn't this something more for the TLDR US channel?
The fact that our entire democratic process hinges on a couple of dipsticks in the north east fighting over who gets to use the last brain cell is absolutely insane.
It was Florida for old George W. That's what happens when states change colors
Democracy sucks when it doesn't work the way you want it to, doesn't it?
@@jaobidan2358 you mean when it’s tilted to favor a vocal minority rather than popular opinion and vote? I agree.
@@jaobidan2358 judging by your name and picture, you don’t really seem to be into the whole democracy thing.
@@Flynn178 That's your boy Joe...And put a fkin shirt on.
200 years later it really still is the keystone state
PA only matters because both campaign likely needed 1 states in Rust Belt, and PA is the most likely to flip. BUT that’s assuming PA is most friendly towards the Trump out of the three, and there are cases to be made that it might not be the case. Wi and MI lately has shown different trend than PA which is bad for Harris. That means she has to win 2 coin toss while Trump only has to win 1. Hence the 2 to 1 odds in the betting market.
Well explained, thanks. Such coherent commentary is rare around here.
Spot on. In fact, Harris most likely needs to win all 3 because of her horrendous Sun Belt numbers.
She's behind in every swing state. Only in MI is Trump up barely +1 so I give her that state...She likely loses all the remaining 6 and gets stuck between 234-238 EVs.
@@xijin9154 She's not going to do that bad in the sunbelt, her worst swing state is Arizona, that's where Trump´s attacks hit the most (particularly regarding the border) and even then Gallego leads every single senate poll. Nevada will be blue, Nevada polls look extremely off, the state never favored Trump and the 2 most populous counties do the most to help democrats.
Georgia is about turnout and campaigning, Biden won the state in 2020 with Harris as VP, she just needs to tap into the right demographics to win there.
@@caiolucas8257 Kari Lake is not a strong Senate candidate he was always going to win. With historic turnout Biden barely edged a win. Kamala is no Biden and black support in key battlegrounds has been atrocious. It's coping at best. Her disastrous interviews coupled with dismal support from key voting blocs will cost her.
I'm from Pennsylvania and we will side with the presidential candidate who stops calling us Penny Phillypits. we fkn hate that name.
The Popular Vote should be the one that decides who gets to be president
Wrong
Super obviously, yes
electoral college is DEI for republicans
That completely goes against the idea of the republic. The USA is a literal union of states. It's literally in the name too. It was never made to be as monolithic or as centralized as most other countries. In fact, this promise was how it got the less populous colonies to come aboard. After all, if it was direct popular vote, what representation do the less populous colonies even have other than just to yell at how much they disagree with what the more populous colonies would do? This was also why the Senate was made.
That does NOT mean population does not matter ofc. The House of Representatives is population based and the number of reps in each state do get represented in the EC count. The EC is # of house reps + # of senators, which is always 2. The house is what basically balances the EC out for the populous states but it's not like they don't matter. California is still crucial to a Dem win and TX is still crucial to a GOP win even though both states are generally partisan toward a party, California more so.
@@megamonster1234 👆maga gaslighting for getting away with a heavily republican biased election system. There is already a mechanism to account for representation of less populous states (the senate). There is no reason for giving Republican votes more weight in the presidential election. It's an unfair system that goes straight against the principle of one person one vote
Thats ALOT of registered democrats this year though. Not to mention record early voting numbers.
Have seen plenty of pledges from Republicans voting Harris, have not seen the other way around so I'm sure the conversion rate is higher for Repubs voting Dems than vice-versa, especially in early voting.
Keep drinking the Kool Aid.
@@paulschmitz9175You unironically think more Dems will vote Trump than Reps will vote Harris?
Im sure reps will vote for the black women who loves abortion and high taxes@@DJ-ov2it
@@DJ-ov2itIn PA, absolutely. It was that way in 2016 and 2020. Registered Dems outnumbered Reps by almost one million in 2016, yet he still won because he was able to appeal to disaffected Dems. Your arrogance is completely misplaced since you are plainly wrong.
@@DJ-ov2it It doesn;t matter. Trump leads in early voting and will easily gain a fuckton more on election day (Where more Republicans vote).
Important note: Seeing as TLDR only used 2020 early voting data, it is quite important to add that the current early voting numbers %wise seem to mirror the 2022 midterms more, not in raw vote data, but %wise and only around 1/4 of PA registered voters do vote early (2022 midterms), so most of it will come down to the election day in-person vote, in other words, even though TLDR is usually thorough, this video is quite sloppy.
Kamala was a wrong candidate 😞
Who is the RIGHT one? You?
Harry Truman @@OAlem
@@OAlemlmao.
@@OAlem
Joe Biden
@@OAlem I think someone like josh Shapiro or joe manchin
You know they say if electoral college didnt exist theyd just travel to the big cities... Feels very hypocritical of them to say seeing this.
That’s not true. Plenty of politicians would still require rural voters to win. Plus, the electoral college means every rural voter between the coasts is ignored as a guaranteed Republican. But sure, let a bunch of coastal suburbanites decide the presidency
@@Catmint309to be fair though that is the majority of the people. It’s kinda crazy a politician could win 15 million + of the popular vote over another candidate and yet still not be the presidential elect.
@@theodore4165 think you meant to reply to the other guy but I agree with what you’re saying!!
@@Catmint309 yea my bad sorry lol
Look I'm just glad for the discussion. In both cases the way it is now it's a very slim selection of locations I feel. I live in the state that votes first in the primary so we get visits during January and February. On those years where we have a primary.
The same reason they were optimistic that Oz would win in 2022. They're wong.
this kind of measured, balanced reporting is entirely absent from American news media
Kinda dishearted over the fact that the guy who suggested we inject bleach into our bodies to fight covid is about to become President of the United States AGAIN.
He was floating ideas for potential treatments to be tested.
would have been far safer than the treatment they wound up pushing
@@caiden5855 yes, which should have disqualified him from running a drive through.
@@TheCountess666 "His comments came after William Bryan, the undersecretary for science and technology at the Department of Homeland Security, presented a study that found sun exposure and cleaning agents like bleach can kill the virus when it lingers on surfaces."
@@TheCountess666 damn you really have TDS that bad?
It should be noted that PA's state house has a 1-seat Democratic majority at the moment.
Too Big To Rig
you're going to say its rigged either way unless you get the results you want
Pennsylvania sounds a bit like my congressional district though more detail needed to be sure. That is a bad part about American politics, so much focus on federal elections with far less on state and local that can actually better clarify what happens in federal and why
This continues to cement my extreme dislike for the elctoral college. Come on trump lost by a little over 6 million votes last time yet those thousands of voters matter more in many of these 'swing' states.
Read the Federalist Papers & educate yourself.
Womp womp
@@paulschmitz9175Just say you hate democracy and want your arbitrarily favored minority to decide elections. I guarantee you would be whining 24/7 if the EC disproportionately favored urban voters.
@@DJ-ov2it That's both ironic & hilarious considering your support of a candidate that received as many Democrat primary votes as I did - ZERO! How very Soviet of you comrade!
@@paulschmitz9175 #1: Nice dodge.
#2: If you really want to try and argue that the Biden voters wouldnt have equally voted Harris, take your meds and zip it.
I wish people would just get out and vote
Not to forgot Trump was shot at Pennsylvania.
Following the polls has given me a new sense of anxiety. Now once election day comes it's all over, people who have only been talking about the election are out of a job and we'll just have to see how the new president and congress set up goes. But waiting for new results and watching it swing between both sides when it's not just a close tie but any shift could mean a win and even the safe states are within the margin of error. Georgia has polled consistently Republican, but it's still a swing state that could lose Trump the election, if it turns out to be Democrat and all those electoral votes go to Harris I imagine a lot of people will be upset with the pollsters along with making more claims of rigging. Maybe not likely but we're overdue to overhaul the electoral college system.
Huh. The conveninet timing of this upload.
All I can hope for is that we won't be witnessing the end of democracy in USA due to social media trash, ai and powerhunger having a good team hug together.
If your country and democracy can be destroyed by social media posts and A.I then it wasn't a good country in the first place
Well after January hopefully the biden & kamala don't touch the white house anymore and we have another 4 years of prosperity
I would be surprised if a state that just elected a Democratic governor and senator suddenly went red.
i think hes gonna win PA
I was born in Pennsylvania and moved to California when I was 21. Talk about a difference in politics and perception. TRUMP 2024!!
TLDR be like
Title: How Republican are optimistic.
Ending: Harris can win.
Sometimes bias is unconscious.
The betting markets got every one of the rust belt state races wrong and all the ones that were suppose to be close in the northeast in 2022
Literally havent seen anyone state this. Thanks!
Comparing a midterm to a general election is like comparing apples and oranges.
Kamala messed up hugely by endorsing Walz as her VP. All nominating a VP does is make the state they are governor of more likely to vote for you party. A good VP does very little to actually influence an election in any other state, Vance was a horrible pick for Trump and he hasn't huet his chances. Minnesota was never going to flip to a Republican majority so picking a VP from there is useless, she should have picked Shapiro in order to confirm Pennsylvania as Democrat.
Especially since she the proceeded to fully support Israel, so she lost the Arab and pro Palestinian votes anyway.
Walz is one of the most popular and liked vp picks in american history if u look at his approval ratings
Shapiro had all sorts of negative press coming out about him while she was in the selection process (fairly or unfairly piled on by his rivals as has been alleged. But John Fetterman, the US Senator from PA mentioned in this video even flat out told her not to do it) and she definitely didn't need that kind of attention to blunt her momentum. Plus he's viewed as having an arguably stronger Pro-Israel stance, which could have easily reignited and fanned tensions within the party as opposed to maintaining the unity she had brought.
Essentially, she wouldn't even be this close to winning overall with Shapiro as VP regardless of if he added a few percentage points in PA. 🤷🏻♂️
@@pyroman2918 Trump is even more pro Israel than Harris what u on about
Shapiro is a jew who served in the IDF (so much for loyalty) and the DNC has a problem with muslims and their blind support of Israel....that is how politics works.
Yep. You’re welcome
*Amazing video, thanks for the steady stream. I'm favoured, $450k Returns the Lord is my saviour in times of my need!!!*
Hello how do you make such?? I'm a born Christian and sometimes I feel so down myself because of low finance but I still believe in God
It's Maria Frances Hanlon doing, she's changed my life.
Same here
waking up every 14th of each
month to 210,000 dollars it's a blessing to l and my family... I can now retire knowing that I have a steady income❤️Big gratitude to
Maria Frances Hanlon
I do know Ms. Maria Frances Hanlon, I also have even become successful....
Absolutely! I've heard stories of people who started with little to no knowledge but made it out victoriously thanks to Ms. Maria Frances Hanlon.
The Answer is: NO CHANCE!
Lol
That's correct. No one here has explained how he lost PA in 2020, and now suddenly will win it.
From PA, voting tr um p🇺🇸🇺🇸
Trump 2024❤❤❤ indian- American will vote for Trump we don't want Kamala Harris
Bot comments
Just give me a glass of water and that's the end of the magnets.
@Chuck-js8dy
"From Texas and a democrat voting trump"
"From NYC and a democrat voting against Harris here"
Wow you are from 3 states that's very surprising you are truly a special democrat
I'm betting that there will be a 269-269 tie
Polymarket is being biased by a single guy...
Yes, a $2,108,532,982 cap betting market on the election winner being influenced by a single guy, you could dump millions and change it by a fraction of a percent. What would be the point of betting millions if you're going to lose it all anyway? To trick people by... throwing all your money away? Putting up a facade for a week? What's the point.
If you're confident he's wrong them bet against him, its free money. I'm set to make heaps off of this election if Kamala wins
Why mention the crypto site? It's been shown that one guy is making a huge majority of the bets for trump
Voting Trump in Pennsylvania for the first time. I m so done with current administration
You're one of those dreamers doni loves so much
@@mikeprice4103 is that a bad thing
You have made a wise choice. Trump 2024
@@Pennywise.18 doni did say be proud to be uneducated
I’m on the road frequently for work in the suburbs northeast of Philly. Trump signs everywhere. At least ten to every Harris sign.
Trump supporters are usually more into the signs and merch though. But if it's ten to one then it does probably mean something I guess.
I would just like to point out that, after this video was published, Nate Silver's aggregate updated. It now has Trump up in PA, 48.2% to Harris' 48.0%.
COMMON TRUMP W
That is WELL within the margin of error
@@yasaralamin1246 PA has been within the MOE for most of the election cycle
@@TheAmericanPrometheus Nate Silver? You mean the guy who gave Clinton a 70% chance of winning?
Common Pennsylvania W
I live in Allegheny county. It really does depend on what happens here, the grandma and Grandpas.
That and the black male vote in Philly. I'm not sure if it's there.
2:03: ? No, that's a lot of swing states and you didn't even show Texas and Florida.
2:59: It is not just erratic, it's also fascist.
4:25: This part is actually concerning.
Please stop using fascism as a term to describe Trump. A more accurate term is populist. He is not a radical authoritarian, despite what some people might paint him as.
The blue bars at 5:00 are wrong
They look fine
@@oscarmccoy9102 theyre flipped 2020 and 2024
@@derrheat154 ah yes they did thank you.
Deep-fake AI scammer videos as official youtube advertisements is criminal. UA-cam needs to do better and actually vet their advertisers.
You know what we call the popular vote in other countries?
A VOTE!!!!!
Tell that to France Germany and Britain who are all being run by coalition governments representing smaller vote shares than their opposition but were properly geographically located.
@@mni892 don't forget Austria lmao, the fact they need to make an unpopular coalition
@@mni892 dont tell fake news. Germany is purely using the popular vote. If a party gets 40% they get 40% of the seats. Government Coalitions got the higher voter share in like 98% of elections with minory goverments being rarly formed
It's not the same thing, they get their votes based on how many people voted for their party
The United States has just two parties and the electoral college shows that a small minority gets to decide their leader instead of the majority of people therefore it undermines democracy itself
@@mni892In UK whilst labour only got a third of the vote they are governing with a massive parliamentary majority it’s not a coalition
Suprised you didn't mention the Amish here.
Republicans have most probably Georgia already in their pocket but I don’t think Pennsylvania is sure at all
Georgia, North Carolina and Arizona are a sealed deal for GOP. It's enough for Trump to win either Wisconsin, Michigan or Pennsylvania to win.
@@windsolarupnorth7084and did you get that definitive data? Truth Social? 🤣🤣
@@shanecrowe8517 Realclearpolitics. It's now tied for popular vote, Biden was up 8% in 2020. Harris is far behind and will be the first Democrat to lose popular vote since Kerry in 2004.
@@windsolarupnorth7084 unfortunately, RealClearPolitics doesn't hold particularly high standards for their averages and weigh low rated pollsters like Trafalgar the same as others with A ratings. They also have a data pool skewed heavily towards Republican funded and/or ideologically leaning pollsters vs the number of independent and Democratic funded and/or ideologically leaning.
So I'd take their "tie" with a grain or two of salt. 🤷🏻♂️
@@windsolarupnorth7084kamala Harris are going to win
If you used Nate Silver numbers in your video just lost credibly on this story the man has become a joke with most election experts,
I never thought I would see my hometown, Pittsburgh, mentioned in a TLDR video.
You must every proud