Fun fact: If John Williams gets nominated for THE FABELMANS, he will make Oscars history as not only the oldest ever Oscar nominee and the first ever nonagenarian Oscar nominee (he will surpass Agnes Varda's record in this case), he will also become the only ever person to be nominated in 7 different decades (1960s to the 2020s inclusive).
@@FantasticBeasts2024 He doesn't deserve it for the fabelmans. The key scenes in that movie used Beethoven, Marcello and Mozart pieces. I am not even sure the score has enough original music at all and if any of it is good enough.
Rooting for Dolly de Leon. If she gets nominated, she would make history as the first Filipino actress to be nominated for a Golden Globe, BAFTA and Oscar.
Here's a fun piece of trivia for this year's Oscars. With TÁR and Elvis pretty much guaranteed to be nominated for Best Picture, they will each be the 10th Best Picture nominee starring Cate Blanchett and Tom Hanks respectively. From what I could find, there are only only three actors in the history of the Oscars who have appeared in 10 Best Picture nominees: Jack Nicholson, Robert DeNiro (who is actually in 11) and Leonardo DiCaprio, so on Tuesday, these two will join them in that exclusive club (and Cate Blanchett will be the first woman).
@@MrStGeorgeIllawarra obviously because if there were up to 10 nominees back in the day, then older actors in that period would have been in more nominated films... pretty self-explanatory, but then, you are a dumb Australian...
Here are the stats of what they got right BEST PICTURE - 8/10 BEST DIRECTOR - 4/5 BEST ACTOR - 4/5 BEST ACTRESS - 3/5 SUPPORTING ACTRESS - 5/5 SUPPORTING ACTOR - 3/5 ORIGINAL SCREENPLAY - 5/5 ADAPTED SCREENPLAY - 3/5 CINEMATOGRAPHY - 3/5 EDITING - 4/5 PRODUCTION DESIGN- 5/5 COSTUME DESIGN - 3/5 MAKEUP & HAIR - 4/5 ORIGIONAL SCORE - 3/5 BEST SOUND- 5/5 ORIGINAL SONG - 4/5 VISUAL EFFECTS- 4/5 ANIMATED FEATURE - 4/5 INTERNATIONAL FEATURE - 4/5 BEST DOCUMENTARY - 4/5 They got four categories all correct and at least 3 or more out 5 right for all categories
Would you guys consider doing a video about what you personally would nominate for these categories? Or at least just the ones you care about, would just be fun to see what you think the best ones in these categories are
nothing makes me more sad than seeing diego calva being predicted as a nominee in the mid-year predictions, then falling to 6th-7th and now going to 13th, i love him so much:(
you think nope would get a lone best picture? Very wishful thinking, no matter how good a horror film is it is the most prejudiced genre in terms of academy recognition (even more so than super hero movies, at least they get sfx and black panther got in)
Of course he will be nominated over Paul Dano (like happend for Dench did over Balfe from Belfast) and he will be in the top 5 with Quan, Glesson, Keoghan and Brian
I honestly think there's still a chance of Michelle Williams being nominated in Supporting, despite campaigning in Lead. Especially after what happened with LaKeith Stanfield for "Judas and the Black Messiah", where Oscars basically nominated both main characters of the movie in Supporting, including the one whose perspective the movie largely concentrates on (LaKeith's character).
So glad my fav movie of the year All Quiet is finally getting hype. Also, if Ana de Armas gets nominated for Best Actress, Blonde will be the first NC-17 rated film ever nominated for an Oscar since Henry and June in 1991.
All quiet seems like a movie you have seen before. Saving private Ryan, Jarhead, 1917. It didn't do well at any Awards except BAFTA. I don't think has a chance except foreign language film.
I feel the Ostrich film has a good chance for a nomination. It’s kindof interesting how it encompass elements from the current front runners and favourites for best picture, that being the interesting meta feel of EEAAO whilst having a sub plot of being about making a movie (in this case an ad) like Fabelmans. Add some interesting questions and it really becomes more than just a fun comedy.
There have actually been several performances that only get a Critics Choice nomination before showing up at the Oscars. Last year we had J.K. Simmons for Being the Ricardos, but before that, we've had Marion Cotillard for Two Days, One Night, Tom Hardy for The Revenant and Michael Shannon for Nocturnal Animals (off the top of my head), so Judd Hirsch is definitely a possibility still. I also wonder if we are going to get anything that comes out of nowhere, like LaKeith Stanfield two years ago for Judas and the Black Messiah (I mean, not only was the category placement weird, he didn't show up in any precursors before that!). I also wonder if Martin McDonagh will always just be considered a writer by the Director's Branch, which could mean they might never nominate him (I think it's the same reason Aaron Sorkin missed for Trial of the Chicago 7).
Only comparison I can see with Mescal getting nominated is Gosling for HALF NELSON. He's even the same age as Gosling was at that point, and arguably at the same point of his career (breakout success with a popular romance, followed by steady commitment to indie work, with larger projects on the horizon).
Also I have The Sea beast as the 5th slot for animated movie because it has 6 nominations at the Annies (Ie the people who are voting for animated feature ) and is the highest viewed animated movie on Netflix meaning people have seen it. EDIT: additionally the film directed by Chris Williams who has been nominated for Bolt, and won the Oscar for Big Hero 6, meaning he is clearly respected in the animation felid
For Best Documentary I would HEAVILY consider Descendant. It’s backed by the Obama’s film production, which previously they won in 2019 for American Factory and nominated for Crip Camp and all three are distributed by Netflix.
Andrea Riseborough getting nominated would set a dangerous precedent for future ceremonies imo. It'd be really lame if all you had to do to secure a nom would be to coerce your circle in the industry without making a splash at any of the precursors
I can't put my finger on why, but I still think not having Mark Rylance in the Supporting Actor conversation is a mistake. Every single time I hear his name comes up in predix conversations on other channels, it's always followed up with "I'd *love* to see that!" I know he has none of the previous nominations to justify this - but I may go down with this ship. If there's a passion vote in that category, it's him.
I understand where you coming from but tha sentiment comes from people who have seen the film and love it. Bones and All wot be a film a lot of Academy members will entertain due to its subject matter
I get your reasoning for Actress but Ana is happening. She has the passion. The fact she got at SAG despite her movie being a NC17 with graphic content. Has made all precursors and remember the Iove she got from Colin? That’s how the actor branch will react. And over that hers is a BIOPIC performance!
Also for anyone who wants to dip their toes into the shorts, watch Ice Merchants, it's one of my favorite things of the year. It's only 14 minutes and it's on The New Yorker's youtube channel. Shorts deserve some love too, go check some out!
I Think Dolly De Leon should be nominated at Oscar coz her character in the movie is so timely and relevant compare to other nominees. That we should not judge people by their status. A lot of women can relater to her character for being resourceful, fighter and a survivor..
Picture 8/10 Director 4/5; Actor 4/5; Actress 3/5; Supporting Actress 5/5; Supporting Actor 3/5; Original Screenplay 5/5; Adapted Screenplay 3/5; Cinematography 3/5; Editing 4/5; Production Design 5/5; Costume Design 4/5; Makeup & Hair 4/5; Score 3/5; Sound 5/5; Song 4/5; Visual Effect 4/5; Animated 4/5; International 4/5; Documentary 4/5; Short Live 3/5; Short Documentary 2/5; Short Animated 4/5 GREAT Predictions you two... Keep going!!!
Actually, My Father's Dragon, did get two Annie nominations and both were a big ones - Independent Feature and Directing. Wendell & Wild got the same two + Character Design, so they were pretty much even.
Here are my predictions (ALPHABETICAL ORDER) Best Picture 1.All Quiet On The Western Front 2.Avatar: The Way of Water 3.Babylon 4.The Banshees of Inisherin 5.Elvis 6.Everything Everywhere All At Once 7.The Fabelmans 8.TÁR 9.Top Gun: Maverick 10.The Whale Best Director 1.Edward Berger-All Quiet on the Western Front 2.Todd Field-TÁR 3.Daniel Kwan & Daniel Schneiert-Everything Everywhere All At Once 4.Martin McDonagh-The Banshees of Inisherin 5.Steven Spielberg-The Fabelmans Best Actor 1.Austin Butler-Elvis 2.Colin Farrell-The Banshees of Inisherin 3.Brendan Fraser-The Whale 4.Bill Nighy-Living 5.Adam Sandler-Hustle Best Actress 1.Cate Blanchett-TÁR 2.Viola Davis-The Woman King 3.Margot Robbie-Babylon 4.Michelle Williams-The Fabelmans 5.Michelle Yeoh-Everything Everywhere All At Once Best Supporting Actor 1.Paul Dano-The Fabelmans 2.Brendan Gleeson-The Banshees of Inisherin 3.Barry Keoghan-The Banshees of Inisherin 4.Brad Pitt-Babylon 5.Ke Huy Quan-Everything Everywhere All At Once Best Supporting Actress 1.Angela Bassett-Black Panther: Wakanda Forever 2.Hong Chau-The Whale 3.Kerry Condon-The Banshees of Inisherin 4.Jamie Lee Curtis-Everything Everywhere All At Once 5.Stephanie Hsu-Everything Everywhere All At Once Best Original Screenplay 1.The Banshees of Inisherin 2.Everything Everywhere All At Once 3.The Fabelmans 4.TÁR 5.Triangle of Sadness Best Adapted Screenplay 1.Glass Onion: A Knives Out Mystery 2.Living 3.She Said 4.The Whale 5.Women Talking Best Animated Feature 1.Guillermo del Toro’s Pinocchio 2.Marcel the Shell with Shoes On 3.Puss in Boots: The Last Wish 4.Turning Red 5.Wendell & Wild Best Cinematography 1.Avatar: The Way of Water 2.Elvis 3.Empire of Light 4.The Fabelmans 5.Top Gun: Maverick Best Makeup And Hairstyling 1.All Quiet On The Western Front 2.Babylon 3.The Batman 4.Elvis 5.The Whale Best Costume Design 1.Babylon 2.Black Panther: Wakanda Forever 3.Elvis 4.Mrs. Harris Goes to Paris 5.The Woman King Best Original Score 1.Babylon 2.The Banshees of Inisherin 3.The Fabelmans 4.Guillermo del Toro’s Pinocchio 5.Women Talking Best Film Editing 1.The Banshees of Inisherin 2.Elvis 3.Everything Everywhere All At Once 4.The Fabelmans 5.Top Gun: Maverick Best Production Design 1.Avatar: The Way of Water 2.Babylon 3.Black Panther: Wakanda Forever 4.Elvis 5.The Fabelmans Best Sound 1.All Quiet On The Western Front 2.Avatar: The Way of Water 3.Elvis 4.Everything Everywhere All At Once 5.Top Gun: Maverick Best Visual Effects 1.Avatar: The Way of Water 2.The Batman 3.Black Panther: Wakanda Forever 4.Doctor Strange in the Multiverse of Madness 5.Top Gun: Maverick Best International Feature 1.All Quiet On The Western Front 2.Argentina, 1985 3.Bardo 4.Close 5.Decision To Leave Best Documentary 1.All That Breathes 2.Descendant 3.Fire of Love 4.Moonage Daydream 5.Navalny Best Original Song 1.Applause-Tell it Like a Woman 2.Carolina-Where The Crawdads Sing 3.Hold My Hand-Top Gun: Maverick 4.Lift Me Up-Black Panther: Wakanda Forever 5.Naatu Naatu-RRR Best Live Action Short Film 1.An Irish Goodbye 2.Le Pupille 3.The Lone Wolf 4.Night Ride 5.The Red Suitcase Documentary Short Film 1.The Elephant Whisperers 2.The Flagmakers 3.Nuisance Bear 4.Stranger at the Gate 5.38 at the Garden Animated Short Film 1.The Boy, the Mole, the Fox and the Horse 2.The Flying Sailor 3.The Garbage Man 4.New Moon 5.Save Ralph
@@TheClubOrtiz right but he has a really weak movie no one cares about and would be a lone nomination I just can’t see it at all but we will see, predicting 5th spot for this race is really hard
Correct me if I'm wrong, but "Save Ralph" should not be eligible for the academy awards since it was created as an advertisement for The Humane Society of the US. According to Oscar rules concerning Short Films "This excludes from consideration such works as: 1. previews and advertising films." Either I'm missing something or this is a huge mistake made by the Academy.
I think Tom Cruise is still very possible for Best Actor once you remember the majority of Oscar voters are old people and their favorite movie of 2022 was Top Gun: Maverick. They even went to theaters to see it. Josephn Kosinski could even beat out Spielberg, Cameron, or Luhrman possibly for a director nom.
Not sure about Kosinski, though. He made the hardest-to-film-movie of the year, yet he gets snubbed for Directing at almost every possible award show up 'til now.
Fun Fact: Not only old people loved Top Gun. It's the best rated movie on Amazon Germany, for example. Also the french as well as the germans love Tom Cruise. A lot of people will vote for him, even if it's not enough to be included in the end.
@@bono9814 I think McDonagh is pretty solidly one of the three director frontrunners at the Oscars. Spielberg, Berger, Chazelle, Cameron, and a few others are more at risk to get knocked out for Kosinski I'd say.
I am SO worried for Stephanie Hsu. As a huge EEAAO fan, this has been a great awards season for me and I am bracing myself for a disaster where she’s out and JLC is in.
@@guimaraespadilha Sure, but not at the expense of her co-star who is so, so, so much better than her in the movie. I'm all for both of them getting the nod, though. I say get rid of Bassett. Her being in the lead is so hilarious to me.
Only one supporting actress from EEAAO will get in, and it won't be Stephanie. I loved the movie, her character, and her performance but for some reason her portrayal of the villain was very one note. This wouldn't be a problem if it weren't for the fact that EEAAO was a multiversal movie and JLC and Michele played a handful of distinct characters in one movie whereas Stephanie just played the stereotypical sassy villain and troubled/misunderstood daughter. She's not going to be compared to the other nominees for the final slot but she will be compared to JLC. I hope this made sense!
JLC getting nominated is not the end of the world, guys. She's campaigning hard on her own. Let her have this. And why can't they nominate both actresses? It's still a possibility.
I have to say Margot Robbie is better than Michelle Williams. In supporting actress, even Nina Hoss existence on predictions is ridiculous, her performance is not worth. I believe Babylon will be on editing TOP 5. It could make a surprise. My top 5 animated feature: puss in boots, turning red, the sea beast, marcel the shell and pinocchio.
You know who else would've been jury saves if they had gotten into Director...Polley and Wells. Let's not try to diminish Prince-Bythewood's BAFTA nod cause you're salty about your favs not being chosen instead.
FINAL PREDICTIONS - in alphabetical order BEST PICTURE All Quiet on the Western Front Avatar 2 Banshees of Inisherin Elvis Everything Everywhere All at Once Fabelmans RRR Tar Top Gun Maverick Woman King Alternate: The Whale BEST ACTOR Elvis - Austin Butler Banshees - Colin Farrell The Whale - Brendan Fraser Fabelmans - Gabriel LeBelle Living - Bill Nighy Alternate: Aftersun - Paul Mescal BEST ACTRESS Tar - Cate Blanchett Woman King - Viola Davis Till - Danielle Deadwyler Blonde - Ana de Armas Everything Everywhere - Michelle Yeoh Alternate: Fabelmans - Michelle Williams BEST SUPPORTING ACTOR Fabelmans - Paul Dano Banshees - Brendan Gleason Banshees - Barry Keoghan Everything Everywhere - Ke Huy Quan The Good Nurse - Eddie Redmayne Alternate: Babylon - Brad Pitt BEST SUPPORTING ACTRESS Black Panther Wakanda Forever - Angela Bassett The Whale - Hong Chau Banshees - Kerry Condon Everything Everywhere- Jamie Lee Curtis Fabelmans - Michelle Williams Alternate: Triangle of Sadness - Dolly de Leon BEST DIRECTOR Banshees Everything Everywhere Fabelmans RRR Tar Alternate: Woman King BEST ORIGINAL SCREENPLAY Banshees Everything Everywhere Fabelmans Tar Triangle of Sadness Alternate: Aftersun BEST ADAPTED SCREENPLAY All Quiet Living She Said The Whale Women Talking Alternate: Glass Onion BEST CINEMATOGRAPHY All Quiet The Batman Elvis Empire of Light Top Gun 2 Alternate: Avatar 2 BEST PRODUCTION DESIGN All Quiet Avatar 2 Babylon Elvis Fabelmans Alternate: Everything Everywhere BEST EDITING Banshees Elvis Everything Everywhere Tar Top Gun 2 Alternate: All Quiet BEST COSTUME DESIGN Babylon Black Panther 2 Elvis Mrs. Harris Goes to Paris Woman King Alternate: Everything Everywhere BEST MAKEUP & HAIRSTYLING All Quiet on the Western Front The Batman Blonde Elvis The Whale Alternate: Black Panther 2 BEST ORIGINAL SCORE - major snub will happen here Babylon Banshees Fabelmans Guillermo del Toro’s Pinocchio Woman King Alternate: Women Talking BEST ORIGINAL SONG Applause Black Panther 2 Guillermo del Toro’s Pinocchio RRR Top Gun 2 Alternate: Where the Crawdad’s Sing BEST ANIMATED FEATURE Guillermo del Toro’s Pinocchio Inu-Oh Marcell the Shell Puss in Boots The Last Wish Turning Red Alternate: Apollo 10 1/2 BEST INTERNATIONAL FEATURE All Quiet on the Western Front Argentina 1985 Close Decision to Leave The Quiet Girl BEST VISUAL EFFECTS All Quiet on the Western Front Avatar 2 The Batman Thirteen Lives Top Gun Maverick Alternate: Everything Everywhere BEST SOUND All Quiet on the Western Front Avatar 2 The Batman Elvis Top Gun Maverick Alternate: Tar BEST DOCUMENTARY All That Breathes All the Beauty and the Bloodshed Descendant Fire of Love Navalny Alternate: Moonage Daydream
I don’t get how Deadwyler and Michelle Williams are over Viola Davis when she’s gotten in everywhere, whereas Deadwyler missed Golden Globe and Williams missed SAG and BAFTA. On top of Davis being an academy darling.
Racism. And they fall for the white guilt strong black woman trope. Viola literally destroyed stereotypes and is Bad@$$ and hasn't missed a nomination, but people are still putting her at #6. I'm like no wonder she did category fraud for Fences. They don't want a black woman to succeed. Deadwyler misses Globe, was def a jury pick at bafta, and is gonna be a sole nominee for Leading? Not gonna happen. Like Ana DeArmas is a Latina who got everywhere but CC, but film Twitter didn't want to give her the narrative so that's why they still have her missing when she's done better than Williams or Deadwyler.
Lady Gaga House of Gucci was the only Actress contender to get nominated every major precursor and still got snubbed because the film was a non starter for Best Picture.
@@poett8875 I don’t think anyone expected Till to be a Best Picture contender anyway it’s just that Deadwyler’s performance is undeniably great, The Woman King had expectations of being a big Best Picture contender and became a nonstarter by the end despite people liking it and it’s also not undeniably Viola Davis’s best performance even though she is good in the film, she also got snubbed for Widows
Can I make the nosey question that goes "Do these two live together?" Or at least closeby?. I seem to have put together that the dogs are their family pets and the cats are their own pets?
Just watched triangle of sadness last night and I just don’t think it was anything too great, liked it in parts but some bits were totally ridiculous and unnecessary. Dolly de Leon was decent enough but god there is no way she deserves an Oscar nomination for that role.
I have no doubt EEAO is gonna win, if not then it's either Fablemans or Tar. I will say however I'm shocked Wakanda Forever and Woman King isn't in this conversation more. Don't get me wrong, WK isn't getting that strong of a push and Wakanda Forever didn't do as well as critics hoped, but in comparison to Avatar I'd bank more on them getting nominated first specifically Wakanda Forever since Angela Bassett won best supporting + Viola Davis is also an academy staple.
@@marcochen9117 Possibly, I wouldn't be surprised if it's thanks to them that Inu-Oh managed to get a Globe nom. GKIDS in the US also distributes other Oscar-nominated movies like Mirai, Wolfwalkers, The Breadwinner, My Life as a Zucchini + they got all the Ghibli stuff now. Also, they have Belle, which almost had a nom last year. It's not 100% sure they could do it with Inu-oh, but I wouldn't totally discard it yet.
@@-datrandomdude-6979 Old branch would 100% go for Inu-oh. Still not sold on the current academy voting on it. I don't think Belle was close to getting in at all... Hate how this new academy votes on animation - those old surprise picks were so good (Kaguya, Song of the Sea, Ma Vie De Courgette etc.) I hope
I have a feeling RRR will get nominated. Well, it depends on how many people hate British in the Academy 😂 BAFTA didn't nominate RRR in foreign category because the movie was straight out against colonization.
Going along with the argument that International Film nominees tend to be more "Oscar baity," shouldn't you keep an eye on Cairo Conspiracy (aka The Boy From Heaven)? It's a political thriller which we know that branch of the Oscars LOVE. And since nominations are decided by a branch/committee that's required to watch all the shortlisted films (reinstated as of 2022 I believe), the fact that no one's talking about it doesn't really matter as much.
My final predictions: BEST PICTURE: All Quiet on the Western Front The Banshees of Inisherin Elvis Everything Everywhere All At Once The Fabelmans RRR TÁR Triangle of Sadness Top Gun: Maverick The Whale (ALT: Women Talking) ** I think my NGNG of the year is that Avatar: The Way of Water misses all above-the-line categories for films with more passion. BEST DIRECTOR: Edward Berger, All Quiet on the Western Front The Daniels, Everything Everywhere All At Once Todd Field, TÁR Martin McDonagh, The Banshees of Inisherin Steven Spielberg, The Fabelmans (ALT: S. S. Rajamouli, RRR) BEST ACTOR: Austin Butler, Elvis Colin Farrell, The Banshees of Inisherin Brendan Fraser, The Whale Paul Mescal, Aftersun Bill Nighy, Living (ALT: Tom Cruise, Top Gun: Maverick) BEST ACTRESS: Cate Blanchett, TÁR Viola Davis, The Woman King Danielle Deadwyler, Till Andrea Riseborough, To Leslie Michelle Yeoh, Everything Everywhere All At Once (ALT: Ana de Armas, Blonde) BEST SUPPORTING ACTOR: Brendan Gleeson, The Banshees of Inisherin Barry Keoghan, The Banshees of Inisherin Paul Dano, The Fabelmans Ke Huy Quan, Everything Everywhere All At Once Eddie Redmayne, The Good Nurse (ALT: Albrecht Schuch, All Quiet on the Western Front - a strange NGNG, I know, but I think there could be enough passion in a relatively thin category that it could happen just as the film spikes at the right time.) BEST SUPPORTING ACTRESS: Angela Bassett, Black Panther: Wakanda Forever Hong Chau, The Whale Kerry Condon, The Banshees of Inisherin Dolly De Leon, Triangle of Sadness Jamie Lee Curtis, Everything Everywhere All At Once (ALT: Carey Mulligan, She Said) BEST ORIGINAL SCREENPLAY: The Banshees of Inisherin Everything Everywhere All At Once The Fabelmans TÁR Triangle of Sadness (ALT: Aftersun, but I feel this is a pretty locked-in five) BEST ADAPTED SCREENPLAY: All Quiet on the Western Front Glass Onion: A Knives Out Mystery Living The Whale Women Talking (ALT: She Said) BEST INTERNATIONAL FEATURE: All Quiet on the Western Front Argentina, 1985 Close Decision to Leave The Quiet Girl (ALT: EO) BEST ANIMATED FEATURE: The Bad Guys Guillermo Del Toro’s Pinocchio Marcel the Shell With Shoes On Puss in Boots: The Last Wish Turning Red (ALT: I dunno . . . I guess My Father’s Dragon because they do tend to nominate Cartoon Saloon) BEST DOCUMENTARY FEATURE: All That Breathes All the Beauty and the Bloodshed Descendant Fire of Love Navalny (ALT: Moonage Daydream) BEST CINEMATOGRAPHY: All Quiet on the Western Front Bardo, False Chronicle of a Handful of Truths Empire of Light Elvis Top Gun: Maverick (ALT: The Batman, I guess?) BEST PRODUCTION DESIGN: All Quiet on the Western Front Avatar: The Way of Water Babylon Black Panther: Wakanda Forever Elvis (ALT: The Fabelmans) BEST COSTUME DESIGN: Black Panther: Wakanda Forever Babylon Elvis Mrs. Harris Goes to Paris The Woman King (ALT: All Quiet on the Western Front) BEST MAKEUP & HAIRSTYLING: All Quiet on the Western Front Babylon The Batman Elvis The Whale (ALT: Black Panther: Wakanda Forever) BEST VISUAL EFFECTS: All Quiet on the Western Front Avatar: The Way of Water The Batman Black Panther: Wakanda Forever Top Gun: Maverick (ALT: I dunno . . . Nope, I guess) BEST FILM EDITING: All Quiet on the Western Front The Banshees of Inisherin Elvis Everything Everywhere All At Once Top Gun: Maverick (ALT: TÁR) BEST SOUND: All Quiet on the Western Front Avatar: The Way of Water Elvis Everything Everywhere All At Once Top Gun: Maverick (ALT: TAR) BEST SCORE: All Quiet on the Western Front Babylon The Banshees of Inisherin The Fabelmans Women Talking (ALT: Guillermo Del Toro’s Pinocchio) BEST ORIGINAL SONG: “Applause” ~ Tell It Like A Woman “Ciao Papa” ~ Guillermo Del Toro’s Pinocchio “Hold My Hand” ~ Top Gun: Maverick “Lift Me Up” ~ Black Panther: Wakanda Forever “Naatu Naatu” ~ RRR (ALT: “Carolina” ~ Where the Crawdads Sing)
I think Ana de Armas will be nominated for Best Actress instead of Michelle Williams, who will sneak in the supporting race instead of Stephanie Hsu. And she might win her first Oscar as supporting
I think the ship has sailed on Michelle Williams getting in for supporting, if she somehow does I don’t think she’ll win. The passion for her performance seems to have dropped.
I still feel 'RRR' will get that 10th spot in Best Picture by virtue of the fact that none of its competitors for that place (Triangle, Babylon, Black Panther, Women Talking) have performed particularly well in the pre-cursors. I also believe there's enough passion for it in the industry to get a nomination.
It's highly unlikely, but it's not their fault. India fucked up for nominating Last Film Show instead. RRR would have had a much better chance for the Best Picture nod if only they were the ones that were shortlisted. It sounds stupid because people should vote for films based on their own merit but unfortunately politics and bias are always involved in these kinds of situations.
Best Picture: 1. Everything Everywhere All At Once 2. The Fabelmans 3. The Banshees of Inisherin 4. TAR 5. Top Gun: Maverick 6. All Quiet on the Western Front 7. Women Talking 8. Aftersun 9. The woman king 10. The Batman NEXT: Babylon / Pinocchio / Glass Onion / Elvis
I'm a little afraid Gaga hits a near miss here because speaking from a charts standpoint, young people have shit taste in music and would to be held responsible for her not winning a 2nd time.
how they did: picture- 8/10, triangle and women talking instead of babylon and the whale director, 4/5, ruben instead of edward actor, paul instead of tom actress- 3/5, ana and andrea instead of danielle and viola supporting actor- 3/5, judd and brian instead of paul and eddie supporting actress- 5/5 og screenplay- 5/5 adap screenplay- 3/5, living and TGM instead of the whale and she said cinematography- 3/5, tar and elvis instead of tgm and the batman (batman forever got nomd for CTMG and not the batman lol) prod design- 5/5 costume design- 4/5, EEAAO instead of the woman king makeup- 4/5, BPWF instead of amsterdam score- 3/5, AQOTWF and EEAAO instead of women talking and pinocchio sound- 5/5 song- 4/5, EEAAO instead of pinocchio visual effects- 4/5, BPWF instead of 13 lives animated- 4/5, sea beast instead of wendell and wild international feature- 4/5 EO instead of desicion to leave documentary- 4/5 LA short- 3/5 docu short- 3/5 animated short- 4/5
The only thing holding me back from predicting The Whale in Best Picture is the past films with a lone PGA nomination without anything else (BAFTA, Critics Choice, Golden Globes, SAG, AFI, or even the National Board of Review) don't get an Oscar nomination. I present as evidence this list of films, with a lone PGA nomination (with nothing else), that all failed to make the Oscar's Best Picture lineup: Being the Ricardos Molly's Game Ex Machina Blue Jasmine Skyfall And as of right now, no film has yet to achieve an Oscar nomination, with a lone PGA nomination. If The Whale, or even Black Panther: Wakanda Forever (the other films this year with a lone PGA nomination), gets the Oscar's Best Picture nomination, they will be the first film to do so (since the Oscars and PGA expanded their number of nominees in 2009).
I also don't believe in The Whale in Picture. Late surging films are usually critically acclaimed like Phantom Thread, The Father, Judas and the Black Messiah. The Whale has 66% on Rotten.
@@pb.j.1753 The Father had Golden Globes and BAFTA nomination. And Judas and the Black Messiah had a AFI and National Board of Review mention. Phantom Thread only had a National Board of Review mention, and then it fell off, with just nominations for Daniel Day-Lewis and a few tech awards, but surprised at the Oscars with 6 nominations (including Picture, Director, Actor, and Supporting Actress).
@@nediaelifra721 The Whale still could win Screenplay, even without a Best Picture nomination. But who knows, I feel like the 9th, and 10th slot is up for grabs, and we shall see what Academy voters love more. I'm hoping the Academy nominates Women Talking for Best Picture.
It’s insane how you are not predicting Avatar for cinematography? Especially because you have it in picture. You’re telling me it’s getting sound and VFX, and that will spawn a best picture nom?
You could say the same for the first Black Panther. Didn't get nominations for directing, acting, screenplay, cinematography or even VFX, yet somehow it ended up with a best picture nomination.
Hoping RRR Gets Into Best Picture That Last 2 or 3 spots are up for grabs, Original Song is fixed, All that breathes & The Elephant whisperers too will get nominated. so it's great for indian films this year at the oscars. ( deep down i want ss rajamouli to get best director nom too but we have to be practical as well) . anyways this year best picture nomination is going to be fun to watch.
My choice winners : Lead Actress : Michelle Yeoh Lead Actor : Brendan Fraser Supporting Actor : Ke Huy Quan Supporting Actress : Angela Bassett Director : The Daniels Picture : Everything Everywhere All at Once
Ok people, what are your picks on one shocking snub (someone misses who got in everywhere else) and one shocking surprise (someone gets in who didn't get in anywhere)? Think Caitriona Balfe and Judi Dench lol. For me, it's a Jamie Lee Curtis (snub) and Nina Hoss (surprise).
What is this tribal drum beat that underscores this video? lol is someone's anxiety causing them to nervously twitch and hit a piece of furniture or do they live somewhere near indigenous residents?
My current (NOT FINAL) GoldDerby predictions (as of 21.1): Best Picture: 10. Babylon 9. All Quiet on the Western Front 8. The Whale 7. Elvis 6. TÁR 5. Avatar: The Way of Water 4. The Fabelmans 3. Everything Everywhere All at Once 2. Top Gun: Maverick 1. The Banshees of Inisherin Somehow, Babylon returned. Best Director: 5. Baz Luhrmann (Elvis) 4. Edward Berger (All Quiet on the Western Front) 3. Steven Spielberg (The Fabelmans) 2. James Cameron (Avatar: The Way of Water) 1. The Daniels (Everything Everywhere All at Once) Still can't bring myself to believe Todd Field will get nominated for more than a few hours. Best Leading Actress: 5. Margot Robbie (Babylon) 4. Viola Davis (The Woman King) 3. Danielle Deadwyler (Till) 2. Michelle Yeoh (Everything Everywhere All at Once) 1. Cate Blanchett (TÁR) Guild awards and such are all fine and dandy, but no self respecting Academy member is gonna nominate Blonde for an actual Oscar. Best Leading Actor: 5. Tom Cruise (Top Gun: Maverick) 4. Paul Mescal (Aftersun) 3. Austin Butler (Elvis) 2. Brendan Fraser (The Whale) 1. Colin Farrell (The Banshees of Inisherin) I just think it's easier to get a couple 100s of Guild voters or whatever to give a shit about Living than to get several 1000s of Academy voters to. Best Supporting Actress: 5. Dolly De Leon (Triangle of Sadness) 4. Angela Bassett (Black Panther: Wakanda Forever) 3. Stephanie Hsu (Everything Everywhere All at Once) 2. Michelle Williams (The Fabelmans) 1. Kerry Condon (The Banshees of Inisherin) Kudos to GoldDerby for finally making Michelle Williams available in the category she'll actually get into. Best Supporting Actor: 5. Brian Tyree Henry (Causeway) 4. Paul Dano (The Fabelmans) 3. Barry Keoghan (The Banshees of Inisherin) 2. Brendan Gleeson (The Banshees of Inisherin) 1. Ke Huy Quan (Everything Everywhere All at Once) #QuanSweep les gooooooooooooo Best Adapted Screenplay: 5. Ehren Kruger, Eric Warren Singer, Christopher McQuarrie, Peter Craig and Justin Marks (Top Gun: Maverick) 4. Samuel D. Hunter (The Whale) 3. Rebecca Lenkiewicz (She Said) 2. Sarah Polley (Women Talking) 1. Rian Johnson (Glass Onion: A Knives Out Mystery) 2-5 are basically a 4 way tie, with All Quiet on the Western Front and Living nipping at their heels. Best Original Screenplay: 5. Charlotte Wells (Aftersun) 4. Steven Spielberg and Tony Kushner (The Fabelmans) 3. Todd Field (TÁR) 2. The Daniels (Everything Everywhere All at Once) 1. Martin McDonagh (The Banshees of Inisherin) Same 5 that I had for a few months now, but with some of the ordering changed. I feel fairly confident about these 5. Best Cinematography: 5. Mandy Walker (Elvis) 4. Russell Carpenter (Avatar: The Way of Water) 3. Greig Fraser (The Batman) 2. James Friend (All Quiet on the Western Front) 1. Claudio Miranda (Top Gun: Maverick) How could I ever be so foolish to doubt Fraser. Best Costume Design: 5. Jenny Beavan (Mrs. Harris Goes to Paris) 4. Shirley Kurata (Everything Everywhere All at Once) 3. Gersha Phillips (The Woman King) 2. Catherine Martin (Elvis) 1. Ruth E. Carter (Black Panther: Wakanda Forever) Denying Mrs. Harris for the whole season was a big fat mistake on my part. Best Editing: 5. Matt Villa and Jonathan Redmond (Elvis) 4. Mikkel E.G. Nielsen (The Banshees of Inisherin) 3. Stephen E. Rivkin, David Brenner, John Refoua and James Cameron (Avatar: The Way of Water) 2. Eddie Hamilton (Top Gun: Maverick) 1. Paul Rogers (Everything Everywhere All at Once) All Quiet on the Western Front is the other very strong possibility here. Best Makeup & Hairsyling: 5. Babylon 4. All Quiet on the Western Front 3. Elvis 2. The Whale 1. The Batman I feel that this year the branch will rather go for the Best Picture contending films rather than the ones on the outer circles. Best Production Design: 5. Rick Carter (The Fabelmans) 4. Catherine Martin and Karen Murphy (Elvis) 3. Hannah Beachler (Black Panther: Wakanda Forever) 2. Florencia Martin (Elvis) 1. Dylan Cole and Ben Procter (Avatar: The Way of Water) I just noticed Catherine Martin is credited with 2 different categories for Elvis. Huh. Best Score: 5. John Williams (The Fabelmans) 4. Hildur Guðnadóttir (Women Talking) 3. Justin Hurwitz (Babylon) 2. Carter Burwell (The Banshees of Inisherin) 1. Alexandre Desplat (Guillermo del Toro's Pinocchio) I think GoldDerby are spot on. Best Original Song: 5. Ciao Papa (Guillermo del Toro's Pinocchio) 4. Hold My Hand (Top Gun: Maverick) 3. Naatu Naatu (RRR) 2. Applause (Tell it Like a Woman) 1. Lift Me Up (Black Panther: Wakanda Forever) Another no brainer category, the top 4 are absolute guarantees and the 5th spot isn't too far behind them. Best Sound: 5. The Batman 4. Avatar: The Way of Water 3. All Quiet on the Western Front 2. Elvis 1. Top Gun: Maverick Airplane noises, nuff said. Best Visual Effects: 5. Top Gun: Maverick 4. Thirteen Lives 3. Black Panther: Wakanda Forever 2. The Batman 1. Avatar: The Way of Water Still not fully on board with Top Gun: Maverick getting nominated for an element of production it prides itself for never using. Don't be surprised if Nope ends up overtaking it. Best Animated Feature: 5. My Father's Daughter 4. Marcel the Shell with Shoes on 3. Turning Red 2. Puss in Boots: The Last Wish 1. Guillermo del Toro's Pinocchio Top 4 are locks, Wendell and Wild is a very tight 6. Best Documentary Feature: 5. Descendant 4. All That Breathes 3. All the Beauty and the Bloodshed 2. Fire of Love 1. Navalny I have nothing to add to the discussion since I don't have any knowledge or interest in documentaries. Best International Film: 5. Argentina, 1985 (Argentina) 4. Close (Belgium) 3. The Quiet Girl (Ireland) 2. Decision to Leave (South Korea) 1. All Quiet on the Western Front (Germany) This category seemed so wide open at one time and now it seems almost locked, shame if it ends up being boring. Animated Short: 5. The Flying Sailor 4. Save Ralph 3. An Ostrich Told Me the World is Fake and I Think I Believe it 2. Ice Merchants 1. The Boy, the Mole, the Fox and the Horse I literally based all my predictions for all 3 short categories strictly on your explanation, so I won't add anything to my next predictions. Best Documentary Short: 5. Stranger at the Gate 4. Holding Moses 3. 38 at the Garden 2. Nuisance Bear 1. The Flagmakers Best Live Action Short: 5. The Lone Wolf 4. Nakam 3. The Red Suitcase 2. Le Pupille 1. An Irish Goodbye
0:25 - picture
7:50 - director
10:54 - actor
15:31 - actress
21:01 - supporting actress
24:17 - supporting actor
28:35 - original screenplay
28:58 - adapted screenplay
30:58 - cinematography
34:21 - editing
36:02 - production design
37:33 - costume design
38:32 - makeup & hair
40:21 - original score
42:27 - sound
44:09 - original song
44:44 - visual effects
47:32 - animated picture
48:51 - international feature
50:28 - documentary
52:28 - live action short
53:04 - documentary short
54:54 - animated short
YAS
Thank god
RRR❤❤
Fun fact: If John Williams gets nominated for THE FABELMANS, he will make Oscars history as not only the oldest ever Oscar nominee and the first ever nonagenarian Oscar nominee (he will surpass Agnes Varda's record in this case), he will also become the only ever person to be nominated in 7 different decades (1960s to the 2020s inclusive).
Damn, now I’m kinda rooting for him! That would be an awesome stat breaker.
King deserves it
John Williams is the man!!!
Pffffff he only has 5 wins and 51 total nominations
@@FantasticBeasts2024 He doesn't deserve it for the fabelmans. The key scenes in that movie used Beethoven, Marcello and Mozart pieces.
I am not even sure the score has enough original music at all and if any of it is good enough.
I never thought I'd be interested in a channel like this, I like how you guys react and talk about the movies!
Plus they are gay like you
Rooting for Dolly de Leon. If she gets nominated, she would make history as the first Filipino actress to be nominated for a Golden Globe, BAFTA and Oscar.
Here's a fun piece of trivia for this year's Oscars. With TÁR and Elvis pretty much guaranteed to be nominated for Best Picture, they will each be the 10th Best Picture nominee starring Cate Blanchett and Tom Hanks respectively. From what I could find, there are only only three actors in the history of the Oscars who have appeared in 10 Best Picture nominees: Jack Nicholson, Robert DeNiro (who is actually in 11) and Leonardo DiCaprio, so on Tuesday, these two will join them in that exclusive club (and Cate Blanchett will be the first woman).
That's skewed data since until recently they only had five slots for Best Pic.
@@myytchanneldinakoha8498 How does that matter?
@@MrStGeorgeIllawarra obviously because if there were up to 10 nominees back in the day, then older actors in that period would have been in more nominated films... pretty self-explanatory, but then, you are a dumb Australian...
@@SamxJxPx1993 Fascinating. Have you had weekly kindergarten shooting yet?
@@MrStGeorgeIllawarra considering i'm from New Zealand, no.
Love the manic “have to catch a plane” energy
I cannot WAIITTT to see your reactions to the nominations
Here are the stats of what they got right
BEST PICTURE - 8/10
BEST DIRECTOR - 4/5
BEST ACTOR - 4/5
BEST ACTRESS - 3/5
SUPPORTING ACTRESS - 5/5
SUPPORTING ACTOR - 3/5
ORIGINAL SCREENPLAY - 5/5
ADAPTED SCREENPLAY - 3/5
CINEMATOGRAPHY - 3/5
EDITING - 4/5
PRODUCTION DESIGN- 5/5
COSTUME DESIGN - 3/5
MAKEUP & HAIR - 4/5
ORIGIONAL SCORE - 3/5
BEST SOUND- 5/5
ORIGINAL SONG - 4/5
VISUAL EFFECTS- 4/5
ANIMATED FEATURE - 4/5
INTERNATIONAL FEATURE - 4/5
BEST DOCUMENTARY - 4/5
They got four categories all correct and at least 3 or more out 5 right for all categories
What a crazy ride it has been, I don’t think the best picture line has changed this much before and been so wacky
This awards season is true chaos
Fully manifesting a pinocchio robert zemeckis BP nom
@@nms7872 Well, you were almost right. It got a WP nom at the Razzies. Lol
Would you guys consider doing a video about what you personally would nominate for these categories? Or at least just the ones you care about, would just be fun to see what you think the best ones in these categories are
I think all the love for Aftersun will be pushed onto Mescal. I'd honestly be surprised if Tom Cruise for an action film gets in over Paul Mescal
I could see mescal get in and corrio in actress
Tom Cruise isn’t getting shit.
@@gabrielcastaneda9700 🤣
Or Hugh Jackman from The Son
We don't need another boring Oscar bait performance in an indie no one's seen to be rewarded, yuckity yuck
nothing makes me more sad than seeing diego calva being predicted as a nominee in the mid-year predictions, then falling to 6th-7th and now going to 13th, i love him so much:(
He literally learned English for Babylon, and used Pokemon as one of the ways to learn it. We must protect him
he sucked in Babylon.
Facts. Him and Margot Robbie deserve nominations. Both gave electrifying performances💯
@@poett8875 Margot Robbie absolutely ZERO range.
ALL of her performances are shades of Harley Quinn.
@@bruh_hahaha y’all love to say this when it’s not even true. Just hopping on the Margot Robbie hate train😂
Surprises I’m predicting:
-Michelle Williams in supporting
-Charlotte Welles in directing
-Nope as a huge shock in best picture
Nope!
Charlotte Wells getting anything would be so amazing!
you think nope would get a lone best picture? Very wishful thinking, no matter how good a horror film is it is the most prejudiced genre in terms of academy recognition (even more so than super hero movies, at least they get sfx and black panther got in)
This is the video I’ve been waiting for ALL YEAR BABY
'we don't have time'
make a 1 hour movie
love you guys have a good time over at sundance
Just back from watching the nominations; it’s going to be a fun one 😁
It was always fantastic to follow award season with guys ! Thank you !
I think Ana de Armas will get in
If Judd Hirsch gets nominated. It’ll be the biggest gap between Oscar nominations. With 43 years between Ordinary People and The Fabelmans.
Of course he will be nominated over Paul Dano (like happend for Dench did over Balfe from Belfast) and he will be in the top 5 with Quan, Glesson, Keoghan and Brian
Still rooting for Moonage Daydream for a Best Documentary Feature nom. It was truly a one-of-a-kind take on the musical documentary.
Also the subject matter (ie Bowie) will appeal to a lot of people young and old!
Me too, but the track record for the Oscars nominated popular documentary is rather thin (last year Summer of Soul was an exception I think)
OMG DECISION TO LEAVE GOT NOTHING took me a half hour to realize
Woman King also got nothing :(
I honestly think there's still a chance of Michelle Williams being nominated in Supporting, despite campaigning in Lead. Especially after what happened with LaKeith Stanfield for "Judas and the Black Messiah", where Oscars basically nominated both main characters of the movie in Supporting, including the one whose perspective the movie largely concentrates on (LaKeith's character).
So glad my fav movie of the year All Quiet is finally getting hype. Also, if Ana de Armas gets nominated for Best Actress, Blonde will be the first NC-17 rated film ever nominated for an Oscar since Henry and June in 1991.
Henry & June was NC17 and Requiem for a Dream was Unrated.
All quiet seems like a movie you have seen before. Saving private Ryan, Jarhead, 1917.
It didn't do well at any Awards except BAFTA.
I don't think has a chance except foreign language film.
RRR winning Oscar will be historic moment for Indian cinema. Atleast one Oscar would make that.
I feel the Ostrich film has a good chance for a nomination. It’s kindof interesting how it encompass elements from the current front runners and favourites for best picture, that being the interesting meta feel of EEAAO whilst having a sub plot of being about making a movie (in this case an ad) like Fabelmans. Add some interesting questions and it really becomes more than just a fun comedy.
01/24/2023 - marking calendar of the bros spontaneous reactions that day!
There have actually been several performances that only get a Critics Choice nomination before showing up at the Oscars. Last year we had J.K. Simmons for Being the Ricardos, but before that, we've had Marion Cotillard for Two Days, One Night, Tom Hardy for The Revenant and Michael Shannon for Nocturnal Animals (off the top of my head), so Judd Hirsch is definitely a possibility still. I also wonder if we are going to get anything that comes out of nowhere, like LaKeith Stanfield two years ago for Judas and the Black Messiah (I mean, not only was the category placement weird, he didn't show up in any precursors before that!).
I also wonder if Martin McDonagh will always just be considered a writer by the Director's Branch, which could mean they might never nominate him (I think it's the same reason Aaron Sorkin missed for Trial of the Chicago 7).
Crirics choice and Oscars can be in line similar strongly feel ! BAFTA did shock a lot let's c
McDonagh already missed for Three Billboards. I wonder if they would do that to him twice.
Only comparison I can see with Mescal getting nominated is Gosling for HALF NELSON. He's even the same age as Gosling was at that point, and arguably at the same point of his career (breakout success with a popular romance, followed by steady commitment to indie work, with larger projects on the horizon).
Normal People is nothing alike The Notebook.
@@manantial773 Yes, the fact that Normal People is far more respectable and earned him lots of award recognition gives Mescal even more of a leg up
Plus he is a gay
I want Babylon in cinematography so bad 😭.
Also I have The Sea beast as the 5th slot for animated movie because it has 6 nominations at the Annies (Ie the people who are voting for animated feature ) and is the highest viewed animated movie on Netflix meaning people have seen it.
EDIT: additionally the film directed by Chris Williams who has been nominated for Bolt, and won the Oscar for Big Hero 6, meaning he is clearly respected in the animation felid
Like this logic. 5th spot is such a mess and this is a sound argument
Came back to say congrats for this prediction
@@michaelangelo2192 Thanks
For Best Documentary I would HEAVILY consider Descendant. It’s backed by the Obama’s film production, which previously they won in 2019 for American Factory and nominated for Crip Camp and all three are distributed by Netflix.
I’m gonna pretend Paul Mescal is coat tailing The Lost Daughter
Andrea Riseborough getting nominated would set a dangerous precedent for future ceremonies imo. It'd be really lame if all you had to do to secure a nom would be to coerce your circle in the industry without making a splash at any of the precursors
I can't put my finger on why, but I still think not having Mark Rylance in the Supporting Actor conversation is a mistake. Every single time I hear his name comes up in predix conversations on other channels, it's always followed up with "I'd *love* to see that!" I know he has none of the previous nominations to justify this - but I may go down with this ship. If there's a passion vote in that category, it's him.
Feeling it tbh, and I still know a large group of fans of Bones And All. CMBYN was a Picture thing just a few years ago, and Rylance is loved.
Ke Huy Quan is the passion vote in that category
I understand where you coming from but tha sentiment comes from people who have seen the film and love it. Bones and All wot be a film a lot of Academy members will entertain due to its subject matter
Well that’s how Bette Davis got her first Oscar nomination and consolation 1st Oscar the next year. Sally Kirkland in 1987 and she even won the Globe.
I get your reasoning for Actress but Ana is happening. She has the passion. The fact she got at SAG despite her movie being a NC17 with graphic content. Has made all precursors and remember the Iove she got from Colin? That’s how the actor branch will react. And over that hers is a BIOPIC performance!
Another thing with All Quiet. The original is a classic Best Picture and director winner. That can carry a lot of weight.
I’m going with
Blanchett
Yeoh
Deadwyler
De Armas
Davis
If Sound Mixing still was a thing, TGM would most definitely get it. It gave a completely new meaning to that category. A shame it got abolished.
Also for anyone who wants to dip their toes into the shorts, watch Ice Merchants, it's one of my favorite things of the year. It's only 14 minutes and it's on The New Yorker's youtube channel. Shorts deserve some love too, go check some out!
Ostrich is a Griffith Film School project from Brisbane and it’s literally all the uni will ever talk about now. But it’s amazing and deserves it
I Think Dolly De Leon should be nominated at Oscar coz her character in the movie is so timely and relevant compare to other nominees. That we should not judge people by their status. A lot of women can relater to her character for being resourceful, fighter and a survivor..
Picture 8/10 Director 4/5; Actor 4/5; Actress 3/5; Supporting Actress 5/5; Supporting Actor 3/5; Original Screenplay 5/5; Adapted Screenplay 3/5; Cinematography 3/5; Editing 4/5; Production Design 5/5; Costume Design 4/5; Makeup & Hair 4/5; Score 3/5; Sound 5/5; Song 4/5; Visual Effect 4/5; Animated 4/5; International 4/5; Documentary 4/5; Short Live 3/5; Short Documentary 2/5; Short Animated 4/5 GREAT Predictions you two... Keep going!!!
Judd Hirsch could be like Judi Dench in Belfast
Yes, he got the nomination over Dano. 😂
Cate Blanchett for best actress
Ana De Armas is going to pull a Kristine Stewart in Spencer and be Nominated over Michelle Williams, The Academy loves Biopic performances
Kristen Stewart.
Actually, My Father's Dragon, did get two Annie nominations and both were a big ones - Independent Feature and Directing. Wendell & Wild got the same two + Character Design, so they were pretty much even.
30 seconds in you are yelling. Love it
I would put Mark Rylance for Bones and All on your list of supporting actors, not to be nominated, but to be considered as a potential contender.
Here are my predictions (ALPHABETICAL ORDER)
Best Picture
1.All Quiet On The Western Front
2.Avatar: The Way of Water
3.Babylon
4.The Banshees of Inisherin
5.Elvis
6.Everything Everywhere All At Once
7.The Fabelmans
8.TÁR
9.Top Gun: Maverick
10.The Whale
Best Director
1.Edward Berger-All Quiet on the Western Front
2.Todd Field-TÁR
3.Daniel Kwan & Daniel Schneiert-Everything Everywhere All At Once
4.Martin McDonagh-The Banshees of Inisherin
5.Steven Spielberg-The Fabelmans
Best Actor
1.Austin Butler-Elvis
2.Colin Farrell-The Banshees of Inisherin
3.Brendan Fraser-The Whale
4.Bill Nighy-Living
5.Adam Sandler-Hustle
Best Actress
1.Cate Blanchett-TÁR
2.Viola Davis-The Woman King
3.Margot Robbie-Babylon
4.Michelle Williams-The Fabelmans
5.Michelle Yeoh-Everything Everywhere All At Once
Best Supporting Actor
1.Paul Dano-The Fabelmans
2.Brendan Gleeson-The Banshees of Inisherin
3.Barry Keoghan-The Banshees of Inisherin
4.Brad Pitt-Babylon
5.Ke Huy Quan-Everything Everywhere All At Once
Best Supporting Actress
1.Angela Bassett-Black Panther: Wakanda Forever
2.Hong Chau-The Whale
3.Kerry Condon-The Banshees of Inisherin
4.Jamie Lee Curtis-Everything Everywhere All At Once
5.Stephanie Hsu-Everything Everywhere All At Once
Best Original Screenplay
1.The Banshees of Inisherin
2.Everything Everywhere All At Once
3.The Fabelmans
4.TÁR
5.Triangle of Sadness
Best Adapted Screenplay
1.Glass Onion: A Knives Out Mystery
2.Living
3.She Said
4.The Whale
5.Women Talking
Best Animated Feature
1.Guillermo del Toro’s Pinocchio
2.Marcel the Shell with Shoes On
3.Puss in Boots: The Last Wish
4.Turning Red
5.Wendell & Wild
Best Cinematography
1.Avatar: The Way of Water
2.Elvis
3.Empire of Light
4.The Fabelmans
5.Top Gun: Maverick
Best Makeup And Hairstyling
1.All Quiet On The Western Front
2.Babylon
3.The Batman
4.Elvis
5.The Whale
Best Costume Design
1.Babylon
2.Black Panther: Wakanda Forever
3.Elvis
4.Mrs. Harris Goes to Paris
5.The Woman King
Best Original Score
1.Babylon
2.The Banshees of Inisherin
3.The Fabelmans
4.Guillermo del Toro’s Pinocchio
5.Women Talking
Best Film Editing
1.The Banshees of Inisherin
2.Elvis
3.Everything Everywhere All At Once
4.The Fabelmans
5.Top Gun: Maverick
Best Production Design
1.Avatar: The Way of Water
2.Babylon
3.Black Panther: Wakanda Forever
4.Elvis
5.The Fabelmans
Best Sound
1.All Quiet On The Western Front
2.Avatar: The Way of Water
3.Elvis
4.Everything Everywhere All At Once
5.Top Gun: Maverick
Best Visual Effects
1.Avatar: The Way of Water
2.The Batman
3.Black Panther: Wakanda Forever
4.Doctor Strange in the Multiverse of Madness
5.Top Gun: Maverick
Best International Feature
1.All Quiet On The Western Front
2.Argentina, 1985
3.Bardo
4.Close
5.Decision To Leave
Best Documentary
1.All That Breathes
2.Descendant
3.Fire of Love
4.Moonage Daydream
5.Navalny
Best Original Song
1.Applause-Tell it Like a Woman
2.Carolina-Where The Crawdads Sing
3.Hold My Hand-Top Gun: Maverick
4.Lift Me Up-Black Panther: Wakanda Forever
5.Naatu Naatu-RRR
Best Live Action Short Film
1.An Irish Goodbye
2.Le Pupille
3.The Lone Wolf
4.Night Ride
5.The Red Suitcase
Documentary Short Film
1.The Elephant Whisperers
2.The Flagmakers
3.Nuisance Bear
4.Stranger at the Gate
5.38 at the Garden
Animated Short Film
1.The Boy, the Mole, the Fox and the Horse
2.The Flying Sailor
3.The Garbage Man
4.New Moon
5.Save Ralph
Margot is not getting it
Sandler for Hustle is a gutsy choice I don’t feel like he has any chance
@@katarzyna0706 so I know it’s risky but sag has gone 5/5 on Best Actor 2 years in a row so far, so that is what is giving me confidence
@@TheClubOrtiz right but he has a really weak movie no one cares about and would be a lone nomination I just can’t see it at all but we will see, predicting 5th spot for this race is really hard
Sandler ?
Hahahahahahaha
Alright everyone, we need to pull all of our collective multiverse prayers and manifest an Oscar nomination for Stephanie Hsu.
Also watched Babylon today, thought it was wild and whacky but I really liked it.
When crafted and well acted.
Correct me if I'm wrong, but "Save Ralph" should not be eligible for the academy awards since it was created as an advertisement for The Humane Society of the US. According to Oscar rules concerning Short Films "This excludes from consideration such works as: 1. previews and advertising films." Either I'm missing something or this is a huge mistake made by the Academy.
I think Tom Cruise is still very possible for Best Actor once you remember the majority of Oscar voters are old people and their favorite movie of 2022 was Top Gun: Maverick. They even went to theaters to see it. Josephn Kosinski could even beat out Spielberg, Cameron, or Luhrman possibly for a director nom.
Not sure about Kosinski, though. He made the hardest-to-film-movie of the year, yet he gets snubbed for Directing at almost every possible award show up 'til now.
Fun Fact: Not only old people loved Top Gun. It's the best rated movie on Amazon Germany, for example. Also the french as well as the germans love Tom Cruise. A lot of people will vote for him, even if it's not enough to be included in the end.
It's the highest rated movie with audiences of all the movies in contention
Kosinski to shock and push out banshees director
@@bono9814 I think McDonagh is pretty solidly one of the three director frontrunners at the Oscars. Spielberg, Berger, Chazelle, Cameron, and a few others are more at risk to get knocked out for Kosinski I'd say.
I am SO worried for Stephanie Hsu. As a huge EEAAO fan, this has been a great awards season for me and I am bracing myself for a disaster where she’s out and JLC is in.
Jamie Lee Curtis is a legend and her nomination is long overdue.
@@guimaraespadilha Sure, but not at the expense of her co-star who is so, so, so much better than her in the movie. I'm all for both of them getting the nod, though. I say get rid of Bassett. Her being in the lead is so hilarious to me.
@@Bluebox87 I would love to see Jamie Lee Curtis winning but Angela Bassett is the clear frontrunner.
Only one supporting actress from EEAAO will get in, and it won't be Stephanie. I loved the movie, her character, and her performance but for some reason her portrayal of the villain was very one note. This wouldn't be a problem if it weren't for the fact that EEAAO was a multiversal movie and JLC and Michele played a handful of distinct characters in one movie whereas Stephanie just played the stereotypical sassy villain and troubled/misunderstood daughter. She's not going to be compared to the other nominees for the final slot but she will be compared to JLC. I hope this made sense!
JLC getting nominated is not the end of the world, guys. She's campaigning hard on her own. Let her have this. And why can't they nominate both actresses? It's still a possibility.
“I hope she doesn’t take out Deadwyler…” that didn’t age well.
I have to say Margot Robbie is better than Michelle Williams. In supporting actress, even Nina Hoss existence on predictions is ridiculous, her performance is not worth. I believe Babylon will be on editing TOP 5. It could make a surprise. My top 5 animated feature: puss in boots, turning red, the sea beast, marcel the shell and pinocchio.
You know who else would've been jury saves if they had gotten into Director...Polley and Wells. Let's not try to diminish Prince-Bythewood's BAFTA nod cause you're salty about your favs not being chosen instead.
FINAL PREDICTIONS - in alphabetical order
BEST PICTURE
All Quiet on the Western Front
Avatar 2
Banshees of Inisherin
Elvis
Everything Everywhere All at Once
Fabelmans
RRR
Tar
Top Gun Maverick
Woman King
Alternate: The Whale
BEST ACTOR
Elvis - Austin Butler
Banshees - Colin Farrell
The Whale - Brendan Fraser
Fabelmans - Gabriel LeBelle
Living - Bill Nighy
Alternate: Aftersun - Paul Mescal
BEST ACTRESS
Tar - Cate Blanchett
Woman King - Viola Davis
Till - Danielle Deadwyler
Blonde - Ana de Armas
Everything Everywhere - Michelle Yeoh
Alternate: Fabelmans - Michelle Williams
BEST SUPPORTING ACTOR
Fabelmans - Paul Dano
Banshees - Brendan Gleason
Banshees - Barry Keoghan
Everything Everywhere - Ke Huy Quan
The Good Nurse - Eddie Redmayne
Alternate: Babylon - Brad Pitt
BEST SUPPORTING ACTRESS
Black Panther Wakanda Forever - Angela Bassett
The Whale - Hong Chau
Banshees - Kerry Condon
Everything Everywhere- Jamie Lee Curtis
Fabelmans - Michelle Williams
Alternate: Triangle of Sadness - Dolly de Leon
BEST DIRECTOR
Banshees
Everything Everywhere
Fabelmans
RRR
Tar
Alternate: Woman King
BEST ORIGINAL SCREENPLAY
Banshees
Everything Everywhere
Fabelmans
Tar
Triangle of Sadness
Alternate: Aftersun
BEST ADAPTED SCREENPLAY
All Quiet
Living
She Said
The Whale
Women Talking
Alternate: Glass Onion
BEST CINEMATOGRAPHY
All Quiet
The Batman
Elvis
Empire of Light
Top Gun 2
Alternate: Avatar 2
BEST PRODUCTION DESIGN
All Quiet
Avatar 2
Babylon
Elvis
Fabelmans
Alternate: Everything Everywhere
BEST EDITING
Banshees
Elvis
Everything Everywhere
Tar
Top Gun 2
Alternate: All Quiet
BEST COSTUME DESIGN
Babylon
Black Panther 2
Elvis
Mrs. Harris Goes to Paris
Woman King
Alternate: Everything Everywhere
BEST MAKEUP & HAIRSTYLING
All Quiet on the Western Front
The Batman
Blonde
Elvis
The Whale
Alternate: Black Panther 2
BEST ORIGINAL SCORE - major snub will happen here
Babylon
Banshees
Fabelmans
Guillermo del Toro’s Pinocchio
Woman King
Alternate: Women Talking
BEST ORIGINAL SONG
Applause
Black Panther 2
Guillermo del Toro’s Pinocchio
RRR
Top Gun 2
Alternate: Where the Crawdad’s Sing
BEST ANIMATED FEATURE
Guillermo del Toro’s Pinocchio
Inu-Oh
Marcell the Shell
Puss in Boots The Last Wish
Turning Red
Alternate: Apollo 10 1/2
BEST INTERNATIONAL FEATURE
All Quiet on the Western Front
Argentina 1985
Close
Decision to Leave
The Quiet Girl
BEST VISUAL EFFECTS
All Quiet on the Western Front
Avatar 2
The Batman
Thirteen Lives
Top Gun Maverick
Alternate: Everything Everywhere
BEST SOUND
All Quiet on the Western Front
Avatar 2
The Batman
Elvis
Top Gun Maverick
Alternate: Tar
BEST DOCUMENTARY
All That Breathes
All the Beauty and the Bloodshed
Descendant
Fire of Love
Navalny
Alternate: Moonage Daydream
EO will be in The Top 5 Guys ! 100% ! Maybe in score yet (Paweł Mykietyn) and cinemathography (Michał Dymek).
Completely agree on Mescal. I don’t see why he’s surging on GoldDerby, no way he’s just the lone nominee. Academy will go Hanks for the 5th spot imo.
I don’t get how Deadwyler and Michelle Williams are over Viola Davis when she’s gotten in everywhere, whereas Deadwyler missed Golden Globe and Williams missed SAG and BAFTA. On top of Davis being an academy darling.
Racism. And they fall for the white guilt strong black woman trope. Viola literally destroyed stereotypes and is Bad@$$ and hasn't missed a nomination, but people are still putting her at #6. I'm like no wonder she did category fraud for Fences. They don't want a black woman to succeed. Deadwyler misses Globe, was def a jury pick at bafta, and is gonna be a sole nominee for Leading? Not gonna happen. Like Ana DeArmas is a Latina who got everywhere but CC, but film Twitter didn't want to give her the narrative so that's why they still have her missing when she's done better than Williams or Deadwyler.
Lady Gaga House of Gucci was the only Actress contender to get nominated every major precursor and still got snubbed because the film was a non starter for Best Picture.
@@Kilamanola but neither is Deadwyler’s. Her film isn’t even close to getting a nomination outside of best actress. But yet she’s somehow number 3?
@@poett8875 I don’t think anyone expected Till to be a Best Picture contender anyway it’s just that Deadwyler’s performance is undeniably great, The Woman King had expectations of being a big Best Picture contender and became a nonstarter by the end despite people liking it and it’s also not undeniably Viola Davis’s best performance even though she is good in the film, she also got snubbed for Widows
@@poett8875 i matters when you’re undeniable, even when Spencer was rejected by everyone, the Oscars couldn’t deny Kristen Stewart
Michelle Williams is definitely getting a SUPPORTING ROLE nomination.
Can I make the nosey question that goes "Do these two live together?" Or at least closeby?. I seem to have put together that the dogs are their family pets and the cats are their own pets?
Just watched triangle of sadness last night and I just don’t think it was anything too great, liked it in parts but some bits were totally ridiculous and unnecessary.
Dolly de Leon was decent enough but god there is no way she deserves an Oscar nomination for that role.
Marcel the Shell with Shoes On for Best Animated Feature 🐚♥️
I have no doubt EEAO is gonna win, if not then it's either Fablemans or Tar. I will say however I'm shocked Wakanda Forever and Woman King isn't in this conversation more. Don't get me wrong, WK isn't getting that strong of a push and Wakanda Forever didn't do as well as critics hoped, but in comparison to Avatar I'd bank more on them getting nominated first specifically Wakanda Forever since Angela Bassett won best supporting + Viola Davis is also an academy staple.
Just to get a 1.4 billion new fans RRR may be nominated at the 10th spot!!
I’m sorry, but you think the woman king would get nominated for costumes over things like the Northman and RRR? That’s a little too much.
Inu-Oh got GKIDS backing it up so I wouldn't be surprised if they manage to pull it off and make it happen in Animated Feature.
isn't gkids just a distributor? Do they really have that much influence?
@@marcochen9117 Possibly, I wouldn't be surprised if it's thanks to them that Inu-Oh managed to get a Globe nom.
GKIDS in the US also distributes other Oscar-nominated movies like Mirai, Wolfwalkers, The Breadwinner, My Life as a Zucchini + they got all the Ghibli stuff now. Also, they have Belle, which almost had a nom last year.
It's not 100% sure they could do it with Inu-oh, but I wouldn't totally discard it yet.
@@-datrandomdude-6979 Old branch would 100% go for Inu-oh. Still not sold on the current academy voting on it. I don't think Belle was close to getting in at all... Hate how this new academy votes on animation - those old surprise picks were so good (Kaguya, Song of the Sea, Ma Vie De Courgette etc.) I hope
I have a feeling RRR will get nominated. Well, it depends on how many people hate British in the Academy 😂
BAFTA didn't nominate RRR in foreign category because the movie was straight out against colonization.
12:17 Ryan Gosling in Half Nelson.
To Leslie literally came out of nowhere and it's kind of throwing me for a loop
Going along with the argument that International Film nominees tend to be more "Oscar baity," shouldn't you keep an eye on Cairo Conspiracy (aka The Boy From Heaven)? It's a political thriller which we know that branch of the Oscars LOVE. And since nominations are decided by a branch/committee that's required to watch all the shortlisted films (reinstated as of 2022 I believe), the fact that no one's talking about it doesn't really matter as much.
It’s in my top 5 for sure
guys its been 3 year i follow you thanks
I hope the fablemans gets in for score, because John Williams is 90 and I don’t want his last Oscar nomination to be the rise of Skywalker
He could still get nominated for Indiana Jones 5.
Sunb that could happen: Avatar missing picture, Viola Davis, McDonagh missing best director
Surprise: Diego Calva, Margot Robbie, Brad Pitt
My final predictions:
BEST PICTURE:
All Quiet on the Western Front
The Banshees of Inisherin
Elvis
Everything Everywhere All At Once
The Fabelmans
RRR
TÁR
Triangle of Sadness
Top Gun: Maverick
The Whale
(ALT: Women Talking)
** I think my NGNG of the year is that Avatar: The Way of Water misses all above-the-line categories for films with more passion.
BEST DIRECTOR:
Edward Berger, All Quiet on the Western Front
The Daniels, Everything Everywhere All At Once
Todd Field, TÁR
Martin McDonagh, The Banshees of Inisherin
Steven Spielberg, The Fabelmans
(ALT: S. S. Rajamouli, RRR)
BEST ACTOR:
Austin Butler, Elvis
Colin Farrell, The Banshees of Inisherin
Brendan Fraser, The Whale
Paul Mescal, Aftersun
Bill Nighy, Living
(ALT: Tom Cruise, Top Gun: Maverick)
BEST ACTRESS:
Cate Blanchett, TÁR
Viola Davis, The Woman King
Danielle Deadwyler, Till
Andrea Riseborough, To Leslie
Michelle Yeoh, Everything Everywhere All At Once
(ALT: Ana de Armas, Blonde)
BEST SUPPORTING ACTOR:
Brendan Gleeson, The Banshees of Inisherin
Barry Keoghan, The Banshees of Inisherin
Paul Dano, The Fabelmans
Ke Huy Quan, Everything Everywhere All At Once
Eddie Redmayne, The Good Nurse
(ALT: Albrecht Schuch, All Quiet on the Western Front - a strange NGNG, I know, but I think there could be enough passion in a relatively thin category that it could happen just as the film spikes at the right time.)
BEST SUPPORTING ACTRESS:
Angela Bassett, Black Panther: Wakanda Forever
Hong Chau, The Whale
Kerry Condon, The Banshees of Inisherin
Dolly De Leon, Triangle of Sadness
Jamie Lee Curtis, Everything Everywhere All At Once
(ALT: Carey Mulligan, She Said)
BEST ORIGINAL SCREENPLAY:
The Banshees of Inisherin
Everything Everywhere All At Once
The Fabelmans
TÁR
Triangle of Sadness
(ALT: Aftersun, but I feel this is a pretty locked-in five)
BEST ADAPTED SCREENPLAY:
All Quiet on the Western Front
Glass Onion: A Knives Out Mystery
Living
The Whale
Women Talking
(ALT: She Said)
BEST INTERNATIONAL FEATURE:
All Quiet on the Western Front
Argentina, 1985
Close
Decision to Leave
The Quiet Girl
(ALT: EO)
BEST ANIMATED FEATURE:
The Bad Guys
Guillermo Del Toro’s Pinocchio
Marcel the Shell With Shoes On
Puss in Boots: The Last Wish
Turning Red
(ALT: I dunno . . . I guess My Father’s Dragon because they do tend to nominate Cartoon Saloon)
BEST DOCUMENTARY FEATURE:
All That Breathes
All the Beauty and the Bloodshed
Descendant
Fire of Love
Navalny
(ALT: Moonage Daydream)
BEST CINEMATOGRAPHY:
All Quiet on the Western Front
Bardo, False Chronicle of a Handful of Truths
Empire of Light
Elvis
Top Gun: Maverick
(ALT: The Batman, I guess?)
BEST PRODUCTION DESIGN:
All Quiet on the Western Front
Avatar: The Way of Water
Babylon
Black Panther: Wakanda Forever
Elvis
(ALT: The Fabelmans)
BEST COSTUME DESIGN:
Black Panther: Wakanda Forever
Babylon
Elvis
Mrs. Harris Goes to Paris
The Woman King
(ALT: All Quiet on the Western Front)
BEST MAKEUP & HAIRSTYLING:
All Quiet on the Western Front
Babylon
The Batman
Elvis
The Whale
(ALT: Black Panther: Wakanda Forever)
BEST VISUAL EFFECTS:
All Quiet on the Western Front
Avatar: The Way of Water
The Batman
Black Panther: Wakanda Forever
Top Gun: Maverick
(ALT: I dunno . . . Nope, I guess)
BEST FILM EDITING:
All Quiet on the Western Front
The Banshees of Inisherin
Elvis
Everything Everywhere All At Once
Top Gun: Maverick
(ALT: TÁR)
BEST SOUND:
All Quiet on the Western Front
Avatar: The Way of Water
Elvis
Everything Everywhere All At Once
Top Gun: Maverick
(ALT: TAR)
BEST SCORE:
All Quiet on the Western Front
Babylon
The Banshees of Inisherin
The Fabelmans
Women Talking
(ALT: Guillermo Del Toro’s Pinocchio)
BEST ORIGINAL SONG:
“Applause” ~ Tell It Like A Woman
“Ciao Papa” ~ Guillermo Del Toro’s Pinocchio
“Hold My Hand” ~ Top Gun: Maverick
“Lift Me Up” ~ Black Panther: Wakanda Forever
“Naatu Naatu” ~ RRR
(ALT: “Carolina” ~ Where the Crawdads Sing)
There should be a Oscar category for stunt work.
and Voice acting
@@EamonKelly oh for sure.
and Mo-cap acting
Hope to see y’all at Sundance!
I think Ana de Armas will be nominated for Best Actress instead of Michelle Williams, who will sneak in the supporting race instead of Stephanie Hsu. And she might win her first Oscar as supporting
Angela Bassett is winning that one.
@@guimaraespadilha I think it depends on the fact if Williams gets in supporting or not
@@jonathanbarchiesi2853 Doesn't. Matter, its over for her. Shes not winning
Not a chance if Angela Bassett is in. She's the clear frontrunner.
I think the ship has sailed on Michelle Williams getting in for supporting, if she somehow does I don’t think she’ll win. The passion for her performance seems to have dropped.
everything everywhere all at once will win best picture
I am a full on De Leon-stan now. Go, Dolly, go!
Paul Mescal could be Ryan Gosling in Half Nelson
He got the nomination!!! 🥳
I still feel 'RRR' will get that 10th spot in Best Picture by virtue of the fact that none of its competitors for that place (Triangle, Babylon, Black Panther, Women Talking) have performed particularly well in the pre-cursors. I also believe there's enough passion for it in the industry to get a nomination.
It's highly unlikely, but it's not their fault. India fucked up for nominating Last Film Show instead. RRR would have had a much better chance for the Best Picture nod if only they were the ones that were shortlisted. It sounds stupid because people should vote for films based on their own merit but unfortunately politics and bias are always involved in these kinds of situations.
That's a fucking joke of a movie
Been waiting for this!
Best Picture:
1. Everything Everywhere All At Once
2. The Fabelmans
3. The Banshees of Inisherin
4. TAR
5. Top Gun: Maverick
6. All Quiet on the Western Front
7. Women Talking
8. Aftersun
9. The woman king
10. The Batman
NEXT: Babylon / Pinocchio / Glass Onion / Elvis
Rihanna could surprise us all, even Naatu Naatu. Rarely have I heard a more haunting song, it's unbelievable.
I'm a little afraid Gaga hits a near miss here because speaking from a charts standpoint, young people have shit taste in music and would to be held responsible for her not winning a 2nd time.
how they did:
picture- 8/10, triangle and women talking instead of babylon and the whale
director, 4/5, ruben instead of edward
actor, paul instead of tom
actress- 3/5, ana and andrea instead of danielle and viola
supporting actor- 3/5, judd and brian instead of paul and eddie
supporting actress- 5/5
og screenplay- 5/5
adap screenplay- 3/5, living and TGM instead of the whale and she said
cinematography- 3/5, tar and elvis instead of tgm and the batman (batman forever got nomd for CTMG and not the batman lol)
prod design- 5/5
costume design- 4/5, EEAAO instead of the woman king
makeup- 4/5, BPWF instead of amsterdam
score- 3/5, AQOTWF and EEAAO instead of women talking and pinocchio
sound- 5/5
song- 4/5, EEAAO instead of pinocchio
visual effects- 4/5, BPWF instead of 13 lives
animated- 4/5, sea beast instead of wendell and wild
international feature- 4/5 EO instead of desicion to leave
documentary- 4/5
LA short- 3/5
docu short- 3/5
animated short- 4/5
The only thing holding me back from predicting The Whale in Best Picture is the past films with a lone PGA nomination without anything else (BAFTA, Critics Choice, Golden Globes, SAG, AFI, or even the National Board of Review) don't get an Oscar nomination.
I present as evidence this list of films, with a lone PGA nomination (with nothing else), that all failed to make the Oscar's Best Picture lineup:
Being the Ricardos
Molly's Game
Ex Machina
Blue Jasmine
Skyfall
And as of right now, no film has yet to achieve an Oscar nomination, with a lone PGA nomination. If The Whale, or even Black Panther: Wakanda Forever (the other films this year with a lone PGA nomination), gets the Oscar's Best Picture nomination, they will be the first film to do so (since the Oscars and PGA expanded their number of nominees in 2009).
I also don't believe in The Whale in Picture. Late surging films are usually critically acclaimed like Phantom Thread, The Father, Judas and the Black Messiah. The Whale has 66% on Rotten.
@@pb.j.1753 The Father had Golden Globes and BAFTA nomination. And Judas and the Black Messiah had a AFI and National Board of Review mention.
Phantom Thread only had a National Board of Review mention, and then it fell off, with just nominations for Daniel Day-Lewis and a few tech awards, but surprised at the Oscars with 6 nominations (including Picture, Director, Actor, and Supporting Actress).
i hope you are right because the movie being potentially a screenplay winner scares me especially that bafta nom for screenplay
@@nediaelifra721 The Whale still could win Screenplay, even without a Best Picture nomination. But who knows, I feel like the 9th, and 10th slot is up for grabs, and we shall see what Academy voters love more. I'm hoping the Academy nominates Women Talking for Best Picture.
@@AwardsWatcherwithBTSanchez same
Glad you’re supporting Joyland at Sundance, that’s our movie!
It’s insane how you are not predicting Avatar for cinematography? Especially because you have it in picture. You’re telling me it’s getting sound and VFX, and that will spawn a best picture nom?
You could say the same for the first Black Panther. Didn't get nominations for directing, acting, screenplay, cinematography or even VFX, yet somehow it ended up with a best picture nomination.
EO is getting nominated!
knew it :)
30:30 oof that one didn’t age well 😂
Hoping RRR Gets Into Best Picture That Last 2 or 3 spots are up for grabs, Original Song is fixed, All that breathes & The Elephant whisperers too will get nominated. so it's great for indian films this year at the oscars. ( deep down i want ss rajamouli to get best director nom too but we have to be practical as well) . anyways this year best picture nomination is going to be fun to watch.
My choice winners :
Lead Actress : Michelle Yeoh
Lead Actor : Brendan Fraser
Supporting Actor : Ke Huy Quan
Supporting Actress : Angela Bassett
Director : The Daniels
Picture : Everything Everywhere All at Once
Lol Yeoh and Daniels aren’t winning
@@taitavrit664 Yeoh has won more than 30 Best Actress awards for her performance in EEAAO....so keep your comment to yourself... 😂😂
@@encheknizam I want Michelle and Brendan winning as well.
so true
@@encheknizam cate is winning so shut your mouth
Ok people, what are your picks on one shocking snub (someone misses who got in everywhere else) and one shocking surprise (someone gets in who didn't get in anywhere)? Think Caitriona Balfe and Judi Dench lol.
For me, it's a Jamie Lee Curtis (snub) and Nina Hoss (surprise).
I’m praying that RRR and Decision to Leave show up in some surprise categories. Could def see a big surprise in both of the supporting categories.
I have a weird feeling that Barry Keoghan is snubable. Idk who would take his place tho
@@onoud9417 noooooooo 😅that would be bad times! 😂
What is this tribal drum beat that underscores this video? lol is someone's anxiety causing them to nervously twitch and hit a piece of furniture or do they live somewhere near indigenous residents?
My current (NOT FINAL) GoldDerby predictions (as of 21.1):
Best Picture:
10. Babylon
9. All Quiet on the Western Front
8. The Whale
7. Elvis
6. TÁR
5. Avatar: The Way of Water
4. The Fabelmans
3. Everything Everywhere All at Once
2. Top Gun: Maverick
1. The Banshees of Inisherin
Somehow, Babylon returned.
Best Director:
5. Baz Luhrmann (Elvis)
4. Edward Berger (All Quiet on the Western Front)
3. Steven Spielberg (The Fabelmans)
2. James Cameron (Avatar: The Way of Water)
1. The Daniels (Everything Everywhere All at Once)
Still can't bring myself to believe Todd Field will get nominated for more than a few hours.
Best Leading Actress:
5. Margot Robbie (Babylon)
4. Viola Davis (The Woman King)
3. Danielle Deadwyler (Till)
2. Michelle Yeoh (Everything Everywhere All at Once)
1. Cate Blanchett (TÁR)
Guild awards and such are all fine and dandy, but no self respecting Academy member is gonna nominate Blonde for an actual Oscar.
Best Leading Actor:
5. Tom Cruise (Top Gun: Maverick)
4. Paul Mescal (Aftersun)
3. Austin Butler (Elvis)
2. Brendan Fraser (The Whale)
1. Colin Farrell (The Banshees of Inisherin)
I just think it's easier to get a couple 100s of Guild voters or whatever to give a shit about Living than to get several 1000s of Academy voters to.
Best Supporting Actress:
5. Dolly De Leon (Triangle of Sadness)
4. Angela Bassett (Black Panther: Wakanda Forever)
3. Stephanie Hsu (Everything Everywhere All at Once)
2. Michelle Williams (The Fabelmans)
1. Kerry Condon (The Banshees of Inisherin)
Kudos to GoldDerby for finally making Michelle Williams available in the category she'll actually get into.
Best Supporting Actor:
5. Brian Tyree Henry (Causeway)
4. Paul Dano (The Fabelmans)
3. Barry Keoghan (The Banshees of Inisherin)
2. Brendan Gleeson (The Banshees of Inisherin)
1. Ke Huy Quan (Everything Everywhere All at Once)
#QuanSweep les gooooooooooooo
Best Adapted Screenplay:
5. Ehren Kruger, Eric Warren Singer, Christopher McQuarrie, Peter Craig and Justin Marks (Top Gun: Maverick)
4. Samuel D. Hunter (The Whale)
3. Rebecca Lenkiewicz (She Said)
2. Sarah Polley (Women Talking)
1. Rian Johnson (Glass Onion: A Knives Out Mystery)
2-5 are basically a 4 way tie, with All Quiet on the Western Front and Living nipping at their heels.
Best Original Screenplay:
5. Charlotte Wells (Aftersun)
4. Steven Spielberg and Tony Kushner (The Fabelmans)
3. Todd Field (TÁR)
2. The Daniels (Everything Everywhere All at Once)
1. Martin McDonagh (The Banshees of Inisherin)
Same 5 that I had for a few months now, but with some of the ordering changed. I feel fairly confident about these 5.
Best Cinematography:
5. Mandy Walker (Elvis)
4. Russell Carpenter (Avatar: The Way of Water)
3. Greig Fraser (The Batman)
2. James Friend (All Quiet on the Western Front)
1. Claudio Miranda (Top Gun: Maverick)
How could I ever be so foolish to doubt Fraser.
Best Costume Design:
5. Jenny Beavan (Mrs. Harris Goes to Paris)
4. Shirley Kurata (Everything Everywhere All at Once)
3. Gersha Phillips (The Woman King)
2. Catherine Martin (Elvis)
1. Ruth E. Carter (Black Panther: Wakanda Forever)
Denying Mrs. Harris for the whole season was a big fat mistake on my part.
Best Editing:
5. Matt Villa and Jonathan Redmond (Elvis)
4. Mikkel E.G. Nielsen (The Banshees of Inisherin)
3. Stephen E. Rivkin, David Brenner, John Refoua and James Cameron (Avatar: The Way of Water)
2. Eddie Hamilton (Top Gun: Maverick)
1. Paul Rogers (Everything Everywhere All at Once)
All Quiet on the Western Front is the other very strong possibility here.
Best Makeup & Hairsyling:
5. Babylon
4. All Quiet on the Western Front
3. Elvis
2. The Whale
1. The Batman
I feel that this year the branch will rather go for the Best Picture contending films rather than the ones on the outer circles.
Best Production Design:
5. Rick Carter (The Fabelmans)
4. Catherine Martin and Karen Murphy (Elvis)
3. Hannah Beachler (Black Panther: Wakanda Forever)
2. Florencia Martin (Elvis)
1. Dylan Cole and Ben Procter (Avatar: The Way of Water)
I just noticed Catherine Martin is credited with 2 different categories for Elvis. Huh.
Best Score:
5. John Williams (The Fabelmans)
4. Hildur Guðnadóttir (Women Talking)
3. Justin Hurwitz (Babylon)
2. Carter Burwell (The Banshees of Inisherin)
1. Alexandre Desplat (Guillermo del Toro's Pinocchio)
I think GoldDerby are spot on.
Best Original Song:
5. Ciao Papa (Guillermo del Toro's Pinocchio)
4. Hold My Hand (Top Gun: Maverick)
3. Naatu Naatu (RRR)
2. Applause (Tell it Like a Woman)
1. Lift Me Up (Black Panther: Wakanda Forever)
Another no brainer category, the top 4 are absolute guarantees and the 5th spot isn't too far behind them.
Best Sound:
5. The Batman
4. Avatar: The Way of Water
3. All Quiet on the Western Front
2. Elvis
1. Top Gun: Maverick
Airplane noises, nuff said.
Best Visual Effects:
5. Top Gun: Maverick
4. Thirteen Lives
3. Black Panther: Wakanda Forever
2. The Batman
1. Avatar: The Way of Water
Still not fully on board with Top Gun: Maverick getting nominated for an element of production it prides itself for never using. Don't be surprised if Nope ends up overtaking it.
Best Animated Feature:
5. My Father's Daughter
4. Marcel the Shell with Shoes on
3. Turning Red
2. Puss in Boots: The Last Wish
1. Guillermo del Toro's Pinocchio
Top 4 are locks, Wendell and Wild is a very tight 6.
Best Documentary Feature:
5. Descendant
4. All That Breathes
3. All the Beauty and the Bloodshed
2. Fire of Love
1. Navalny
I have nothing to add to the discussion since I don't have any knowledge or interest in documentaries.
Best International Film:
5. Argentina, 1985 (Argentina)
4. Close (Belgium)
3. The Quiet Girl (Ireland)
2. Decision to Leave (South Korea)
1. All Quiet on the Western Front (Germany)
This category seemed so wide open at one time and now it seems almost locked, shame if it ends up being boring.
Animated Short:
5. The Flying Sailor
4. Save Ralph
3. An Ostrich Told Me the World is Fake and I Think I Believe it
2. Ice Merchants
1. The Boy, the Mole, the Fox and the Horse
I literally based all my predictions for all 3 short categories strictly on your explanation, so I won't add anything to my next predictions.
Best Documentary Short:
5. Stranger at the Gate
4. Holding Moses
3. 38 at the Garden
2. Nuisance Bear
1. The Flagmakers
Best Live Action Short:
5. The Lone Wolf
4. Nakam
3. The Red Suitcase
2. Le Pupille
1. An Irish Goodbye
I like your best actor picks! Lets get rid of Bill and get Mescal & Cruise both in 👌🏼 come on Academy- you know it makes sense!
@@purplecookie4798 I just can't see how Living cultivates more passion around it than Aftersun, let alone Maverick
Wild Original Screenplay Prediction: Armageddon Time.
Gives me the 20th Century Women vibe.
Man hope that happens, sutch a great film!