I like how at 10:45 Seb made super valid point about students broken logic comparing two spots and it went completely in vain since both student and Pete did not get it 😂
I mean isn’t this completely different because we are on the turn rather than the river? In the river spot he was capped but he can’t realize anymore equity, on the turn he’s capped but we still get called by worse when we over bet? Maybe I’m not understanding.
i like this format of showing the entire HH and only after breaking down the analysis. Its good to let us take a shot at figuring out the hand and then seeing what the coaches thought differently
I’m a bit confused on how we say 90-95% equity, then confirm(?) it by saying AQs is 3/18 combos. That would be roughly 83%. Maybe you didn’t mean that was villain’s entire range? But still I don’t see us having that much equity here and I agree with Pete that jam is not the play. I would guess in the mid to high 80s and I think something between 2/3-pot is good. Exploitatively the spot is probably over folded but I don’t think we wanna do anything else with our hand. If we do end up here with ATs or something I think we can turn it in to a bluff for the same size even though it has some SD vs 99 etc.
I decided to put the final KJ hearts hand into my trusty GTO+ solver. I was quite shocked. I gave villain a SUPER tight range (basically QQ+ w/ A10 and AJ suited for good measure). I put in the right numbers for bet sizing and % of pot as occurred in the hand. On the turn Hero only checks 9% of the time with KJ of hearts and ALL OTHER KJ suited hands bet 100% of the time. So there is a node where he checks the turn. Facing the 1/3 pot bet from villain he is supposed to fold....NEVER. In fact call : NEVER. It's 100% raise. Interesting.
really found myself enjoying this one. Potentially because it's also my pool, but good concise coaching from both without going over the same points too much, and Spuds seemed to be on the better side of a 25NL reg which made the discussion more interesting than seeing the exact same micros mistakes we usually see. I found this vid really useful. Would be keen to see him reviewed again in the future once he inevitably moves up, he speaks well too which I reckon is hard when you're not used to streaming.
Hey guys, I'm wondering about this AKh what kind of bluffs here we have on the river? after this action? this is cold 4bet, our range preflop is linear in this spot, in my opinion equity alone does not determine our bet size, but also other factors such as range matchup, I don't see enough bluffs here to balance our jam otr? what do you think about it?
Sebastien here. Bluffs that make sense as shove mostly A5s A4s. If you wanted to bluff sometimes with ATs as well I would not hate it. Very weird spot. Should rarely come up for anyone. Both OB shove and block are fine in solver. AJ AT and QQ only have equity for small block. AK+ has equity to shove. Sometimes folds out better and gets called by worse. Very weird very rare node. AK maybe thin in practice, but not in theory. Very hard for me to know what ranges look like in practice here, because I have never been here.
15:35 unblocks some of their continues?! A9s and T9s are really such tiny fractions of 3 bet ranges that I don't know how relevant it is to even think about it. Opinions?
He is a mid to high stakes player if I'm correct. At that level taking things like that into account do actually matter, NL100 or maybe 200 and below, don't bother about it.
For the AKhh on KJT86 hand I would wonder how much of the 25nl (or lower) pool would 3! a LJ open with KQs, 77 or 99, then flat a cold 4-bet. I would expect to see tons of AK, AQs and JJ-QQ but would start to discount combos of KQs, TT and AJs, then even more combos of 99 and lower. Basically I would actually expect to be near even or behind on that specific runout, but I could be misreading the range of hands that people show up with here.
First hand, AKh vs giant open size by the button. Hero should just be 3-bet shoving. Villain is going to call any smaller 3-bet and will often call all-in, just the same, with dominated hands. You're sacrificing a lot of EV by raising to a smaller size and then trying to navigate this bloated pot with shallow SPR OOP. You should just be trying to get all-in with this hand.
25nl cold 4 vs utg and bu 3 jam on x, x, node with AK on the river seems thin. like first: what does he actually has as a bluff here himself on a x, x, node? and second its is super narrow what the bu is calling with. even his KQs seems unlikely after ip not probe betting turn... dunno would just not love to jam on this limit in this spot vs most villains.
@@talullahtheegyptianbaladyd4388 Are you actually a bit stupid? He checkraised the turn - arrives at river and completely skips the river action. I’m not talking about what the showdown was - but there is a decision point on that river node and it’s been edited out.
KJs hand as deep i think we don't wanna 4bet oop those type hands cause we burn equity vs a tight 3betting range when we get 5bet, And we wanna keep his QJ JT KT,
This idea is actually incorrect and if you look in a solver you will see these "types of hands" 4b oop all the time. Stuff like KTs KJs KQs and AQs. Stuff that would normally flat when IP. The reason why is something I explain in coaching.
Why are we assuming it's a nit? And if it IS a nit, are they not potentially overfolding a 4b? The value of call depreciates as well if they're tighter. Too many assumptions, I think.
Sorry but the fold where the flop had 2 tens was absolutely horrendous. They narrowed villains range way to much. On paired flops you actually call light and bet light. Sure its concerning when oppent bets turn but a call is still standard
Sebastien here. Is the call standard? Absolutely. But when we're playing weaker players (anyone @25nl for sure), we can afford to make great plays that are not standard, and generate a higher winrate by being capable of deviating from standard. Step 1. Does our hand beat value? Not unless they're making a polarization mistake. I think the account playing 20h a day with 1000bb on the felt is probably not making a mistake like betting AQ or JJ. So, we do not beat value. Step 2. Is our hand a good bluff catcher? Yes. Absolutely. I can't imagine a better bluff catcher. In fact, in solver-land the hand is probably worth 4bb as a call. But... WHAT ARE THE BLUFFS? Well, in this case, it's pairs 99 and below. Does a hand like 77 ever mix 3b pre in practice? Maybe not. Do they call a 4b? Maybe not. Do they call the flop? Probably not. Do half of all these sub 25% eq hands 99 through 44 and A5s (which I don't even think they have) fire the turn as a bluff facing x? Probably not, and they are supposed to fire 50% frequency. So it's tough for them to even get to this spot with hands that can bluff, let alone fire them. If they don't have bluffs, we're way behind. If someone gave you J2o off here, would you call? Probably not. And hopefully it's clear now why our hand is not very different.
I actually don’t mind the fold too much, but I do mind this somewhat faulty and contradictory reasoning you’re giving out to justify it. 1) You said this is 25nl where players are weak and have tons of leaks. So why can’t they be making polarization mistakes? Especially someone who is mass multi tabling and is more likely to be clicking buttons and not be thinking about this spot clearly. These weak Villains can easily be betting AK, KJ, even AQ bc of plenty of bad reasons since they are 25nl players after all. 2)Did you hear what Spuds said in the video? He said he had 10k hands on this guy and was 3betting 20%! Meaning he has all sorts of nonsense in his range, including shitload of pairs if not all, and ofc he’s going to call a tiny 4b 300bb+ deep IP and then a tiny cb as well, most likely if they’re aggressive, which they seem like they are since they’re way over 3betting by ~2x times compared to solvers. That alone tells u he arrives OTF with way too many hands, and if he’s not a total idiot, he will be over floating tons of flops esp vs small sizes IP to avoid giving up so much equity by folding a ton which he’ll have to with that massive over 3betting range. So, yeah. It’s not hard to see how it’s easy for this particular opponent to not only have tons of hands that are calling a tiny 4b, but also how he can easily over bluff them, or over stab them when checked to for a relatively small sizing as well. This player profile doesn’t seem like the type to be giving up. However I still don’t hate the fold, but I do like a turn call better unless we had specific info about how this player plays vs 4bs pre, and how he plays them post.
When I was a less experienced poker player watching videos like this I used to think the exact same thing. "Man, this is just short of double talk. Why THIS in THIS situation but not the same in nearly an IDENTICAL situation, etc, etc.". That's why poker is so tough, the randomness and seemingly similarity across spots does give the illusion that they're just flipping coins in their heads and making decisions. You mix that with the natural variance of the cards it does just seem like Bingo. As you get more experience you realize the skill is hidden in the complexity.
Sebastian please spare us this vile and outrageous river shove on the first hand. Don't have required equity, never called by something less good than AK. Bad theoretical and exploitative shove.
Sebastien here. I struggled to coach in that spot because I think I have encountered 4b xx xx on broadway exactly 0 times in my life. I ran it and in theory land, AK has enough equity to shove. Solver's preferred size with most of range is shove or block. But it's a weird spot to theorize about because it just never comes up. It is also one of those weird spots where sometimes you fold out chops and AA and other times you get called by T9s T8s QQ and ATs. I didn't feel like I did a very good job articulating my intuition on the fly, but I'm not too upset given that the play is happening in Equilibrium (altho the node is so goddamn rare).
@@ColliePoker-re4sxno worries. Just even the analysis where you break down how many combos you beat vs how many AQ he has that would give you 83% equity (3 combos of AQs and 15 combos of 77,99, KQs). 83% EQ wouldn’t be enough to jam anyways even without villain overfolding. Cool vid regardless and I’m sure your stuff is good i liked the other hand analyses
@@brandonbrown3159 yeah I left out QQ T9 and T8s. Intuition was there but analysis was not haha. Was just such a weird spot, live for first time, underslept. I appreciate the critique
I like how at 10:45 Seb made super valid point about students broken logic comparing two spots and it went completely in vain since both student and Pete did not get it 😂
I mean isn’t this completely different because we are on the turn rather than the river? In the river spot he was capped but he can’t realize anymore equity, on the turn he’s capped but we still get called by worse when we over bet? Maybe I’m not understanding.
i like this format of showing the entire HH and only after breaking down the analysis. Its good to let us take a shot at figuring out the hand and then seeing what the coaches thought differently
this spuds kid is pretty sharp , can see a bright future for him
If he wanted to go play 5/T live I'd probably buy half
Sebastian is the best you have on. More with him plz - of any kind
I’m a bit confused on how we say 90-95% equity, then confirm(?) it by saying AQs is 3/18 combos. That would be roughly 83%. Maybe you didn’t mean that was villain’s entire range? But still I don’t see us having that much equity here and I agree with Pete that jam is not the play. I would guess in the mid to high 80s and I think something between 2/3-pot is good. Exploitatively the spot is probably over folded but I don’t think we wanna do anything else with our hand. If we do end up here with ATs or something I think we can turn it in to a bluff for the same size even though it has some SD vs 99 etc.
This guy's incredible! Coaches are okay too I suppose
I kid ofc, thank you so much Pete and Sebastien, was a very insightful session
Do you both identify as carrots?
I know this is boring but the truth is I am very clearly a potato
I'm the Lord's Kale/the Devil's Lettuce
I decided to put the final KJ hearts hand into my trusty GTO+ solver. I was quite shocked. I gave villain a SUPER tight range (basically QQ+ w/ A10 and AJ suited for good measure). I put in the right numbers for bet sizing and % of pot as occurred in the hand. On the turn Hero only checks 9% of the time with KJ of hearts and ALL OTHER KJ suited hands bet 100% of the time. So there is a node where he checks the turn. Facing the 1/3 pot bet from villain he is supposed to fold....NEVER. In fact call : NEVER. It's 100% raise. Interesting.
really found myself enjoying this one.
Potentially because it's also my pool, but good concise coaching from both without going over the same points too much, and Spuds seemed to be on the better side of a 25NL reg which made the discussion more interesting than seeing the exact same micros mistakes we usually see. I found this vid really useful.
Would be keen to see him reviewed again in the future once he inevitably moves up, he speaks well too which I reckon is hard when you're not used to streaming.
Always so informative these low stakes vids.
Most of us share the same leaks
That thumbnail is nightmare fuel...
Hey guys, I'm wondering about this AKh what kind of bluffs here we have on the river? after this action? this is cold 4bet, our range preflop is linear in this spot, in my opinion equity alone does not determine our bet size, but also other factors such as range matchup, I don't see enough bluffs here to balance our jam otr?
what do you think about it?
Sebastien here. Bluffs that make sense as shove mostly A5s A4s. If you wanted to bluff sometimes with ATs as well I would not hate it. Very weird spot. Should rarely come up for anyone. Both OB shove and block are fine in solver. AJ AT and QQ only have equity for small block. AK+ has equity to shove. Sometimes folds out better and gets called by worse. Very weird very rare node. AK maybe thin in practice, but not in theory. Very hard for me to know what ranges look like in practice here, because I have never been here.
Great format, one and only, please more :)
GG Spuds, did yourself proud. Looking forward to seeing more of Sebastien. He seems very good at getting to the root of what matters in this game.
Excellent video - really liked both Sebastien and Spuds.
The massive over fold makes jamming with Ace king a polarization air
15:35 unblocks some of their continues?! A9s and T9s are really such tiny fractions of 3 bet ranges that I don't know how relevant it is to even think about it. Opinions?
He is a mid to high stakes player if I'm correct. At that level taking things like that into account do actually matter, NL100 or maybe 200 and below, don't bother about it.
For the AKhh on KJT86 hand I would wonder how much of the 25nl (or lower) pool would 3! a LJ open with KQs, 77 or 99, then flat a cold 4-bet. I would expect to see tons of AK, AQs and JJ-QQ but would start to discount combos of KQs, TT and AJs, then even more combos of 99 and lower. Basically I would actually expect to be near even or behind on that specific runout, but I could be misreading the range of hands that people show up with here.
This guy would.
I guess if you have a HUD or observation based read then sure. @@jeffshackleford3152
That thumbnail is something else 😂
We have entered the age where thumbnails are created by AI.
N thank u for the amazing content pete. Love your solo videos
pete was so happy when the k9 got shown haha
I like that Seb calls you out and doesnt just bow to you
Educational AND funny - this is gold! 😍
Why you didn’t consider Pocket Kings with Club because the turn?
First hand, AKh vs giant open size by the button. Hero should just be 3-bet shoving. Villain is going to call any smaller 3-bet and will often call all-in, just the same, with dominated hands. You're sacrificing a lot of EV by raising to a smaller size and then trying to navigate this bloated pot with shallow SPR OOP. You should just be trying to get all-in with this hand.
25nl cold 4 vs utg and bu 3 jam on x, x, node with AK on the river seems thin. like first: what does he actually has as a bluff here himself on a x, x, node? and second its is super narrow what the bu is calling with. even his KQs seems unlikely after ip not probe betting turn... dunno would just not love to jam on this limit in this spot vs most villains.
The AI photos for this channel are hysterical 🤣
did you forget to finish the hand at 6:45
But what if the set of 99s lost to the flush wh...wh....what if i...what if it lost?? I know, I know, If I'm worrying about this I don't....
What happened with the 99 hand? Just skipped over it
doesnt matter
@@slowfuseIt’s not about what matters or not to you - your opinion is irrelevant.
@@redraw0160eh no. It ACTUALLY doesnt matter.
@@talullahtheegyptianbaladyd4388
Are you actually a bit stupid? He checkraised the turn - arrives at river and completely skips the river action. I’m not talking about what the showdown was - but there is a decision point on that river node and it’s been edited out.
Hero got stacked by a flush.
KJs hand as deep i think we don't wanna 4bet oop those type hands cause we burn equity vs a tight 3betting range when we get 5bet,
And we wanna keep his QJ JT KT,
This idea is actually incorrect and if you look in a solver you will see these "types of hands" 4b oop all the time. Stuff like KTs KJs KQs and AQs. Stuff that would normally flat when IP. The reason why is something I explain in coaching.
@@ColliePoker-re4sx you right in solver land , but in practice vs a nit who have a strong 3betting range 4bet bluffing seems suicidal
Why are we assuming it's a nit? And if it IS a nit, are they not potentially overfolding a 4b? The value of call depreciates as well if they're tighter. Too many assumptions, I think.
Sorry but the fold where the flop had 2 tens was absolutely horrendous. They narrowed villains range way to much. On paired flops you actually call light and bet light. Sure its concerning when oppent bets turn but a call is still standard
Sebastien here. Is the call standard? Absolutely. But when we're playing weaker players (anyone @25nl for sure), we can afford to make great plays that are not standard, and generate a higher winrate by being capable of deviating from standard.
Step 1. Does our hand beat value? Not unless they're making a polarization mistake. I think the account playing 20h a day with 1000bb on the felt is probably not making a mistake like betting AQ or JJ. So, we do not beat value.
Step 2. Is our hand a good bluff catcher? Yes. Absolutely. I can't imagine a better bluff catcher. In fact, in solver-land the hand is probably worth 4bb as a call. But... WHAT ARE THE BLUFFS?
Well, in this case, it's pairs 99 and below.
Does a hand like 77 ever mix 3b pre in practice? Maybe not. Do they call a 4b? Maybe not. Do they call the flop? Probably not. Do half of all these sub 25% eq hands 99 through 44 and A5s (which I don't even think they have) fire the turn as a bluff facing x? Probably not, and they are supposed to fire 50% frequency.
So it's tough for them to even get to this spot with hands that can bluff, let alone fire them. If they don't have bluffs, we're way behind. If someone gave you J2o off here, would you call? Probably not. And hopefully it's clear now why our hand is not very different.
I actually don’t mind the fold too much, but I do mind this somewhat faulty and contradictory reasoning you’re giving out to justify it.
1) You said this is 25nl where players are weak and have tons of leaks. So why can’t they be making polarization mistakes? Especially someone who is mass multi tabling and is more likely to be clicking buttons and not be thinking about this spot clearly. These weak Villains can easily be betting AK, KJ, even AQ bc of plenty of bad reasons since they are 25nl players after all.
2)Did you hear what Spuds said in the video? He said he had 10k hands on this guy and was 3betting 20%! Meaning he has all sorts of nonsense in his range, including shitload of pairs if not all, and ofc he’s going to call a tiny 4b 300bb+ deep IP and then a tiny cb as well, most likely if they’re aggressive, which they seem like they are since they’re way over 3betting by ~2x times compared to solvers. That alone tells u he arrives OTF with way too many hands, and if he’s not a total idiot, he will be over floating tons of flops esp vs small sizes IP to avoid giving up so much equity by folding a ton which he’ll have to with that massive over 3betting range.
So, yeah. It’s not hard to see how it’s easy for this particular opponent to not only have tons of hands that are calling a tiny 4b, but also how he can easily over bluff them, or over stab them when checked to for a relatively small sizing as well. This player profile doesn’t seem like the type to be giving up.
However I still don’t hate the fold, but I do like a turn call better unless we had specific info about how this player plays vs 4bs pre, and how he plays them post.
"good feeling when you wake up crying in the morning" :D (never happend, ofc.)
good content
Very good
The amount of cognitive dissonance in these hand breakdowns gives me a headache
100%. Poker is a joke game. I laugh when people think they know how to beat it with their crazy thought processes
I don’t agree with the statement that it’s a joke game
When I was a less experienced poker player watching videos like this I used to think the exact same thing. "Man, this is just short of double talk. Why THIS in THIS situation but not the same in nearly an IDENTICAL situation, etc, etc.". That's why poker is so tough, the randomness and seemingly similarity across spots does give the illusion that they're just flipping coins in their heads and making decisions. You mix that with the natural variance of the cards it does just seem like Bingo. As you get more experience you realize the skill is hidden in the complexity.
Sebastian please spare us this vile and outrageous river shove on the first hand. Don't have required equity, never called by something less good than AK. Bad theoretical and exploitative shove.
!school
no offense to that new coach guy but the analysis on the AK hand at start was horrendous
Sebastien here. I struggled to coach in that spot because I think I have encountered 4b xx xx on broadway exactly 0 times in my life. I ran it and in theory land, AK has enough equity to shove. Solver's preferred size with most of range is shove or block. But it's a weird spot to theorize about because it just never comes up. It is also one of those weird spots where sometimes you fold out chops and AA and other times you get called by T9s T8s QQ and ATs. I didn't feel like I did a very good job articulating my intuition on the fly, but I'm not too upset given that the play is happening in Equilibrium (altho the node is so goddamn rare).
@@ColliePoker-re4sxno worries. Just even the analysis where you break down how many combos you beat vs how many AQ he has that would give you 83% equity (3 combos of AQs and 15 combos of 77,99, KQs). 83% EQ wouldn’t be enough to jam anyways even without villain overfolding. Cool vid regardless and I’m sure your stuff is good i liked the other hand analyses
@@brandonbrown3159 yeah I left out QQ T9 and T8s. Intuition was there but analysis was not haha. Was just such a weird spot, live for first time, underslept. I appreciate the critique
#YouTUBERJokes