How do you feel about JJ fitting into the Vikings offense? I believe he would be a good fit but I don’t have your experience to judge. To me he looks like a more athletic Cousins but I might be reaching.
@@WinfordMI think JJ left because he had knowledge that Harbaugh was leaving. In an interview the day after the Washington game, Will Johnson said he personally knew Harbaugh’s plans, implying that the team had been told. Regardless, I would bet on JJ to be successful in the NFL simply because he’s so talented and his work ethic is insane. That combo just does not fail
JJ on 3rd and 7+ (where he ranks amongst draft class: 14.8% of pass attempts (1st) 73% completion percentage (2nd) 544 yards (2nd) 6 TDs (1st) 0 INTs (T-1st) 149.15 passer rating (1st) This notion that they didnt trust him is absolutely wild lol
So 86% of the time he failed to convent. Ok. If it's 3rd and 15 and you complete a pass for 10 yards you didn't nothing. So, what. That's sort of what you are saying here. Bump it off and sometimes a WR, TE or RB breaks a tackle for a first down 14.8% of the time.
@@larrylindgren9484 no that’s saying he was trusted to throw on 3rd and long and his 3rd down conversion rate was higher than any of the other top QB draft prospects by a wide margin
So if he is great at third and long then what's the point that MI throws so seldom on third down? If it's third and short, a lot of times you dont need to throw. MI threw on third when needed, and JJ did it well. This debunks the 66th nationally throwing on third down. Lol, this reminds me of a sarcastic point from the MI-OSU 2021 game (which was not JJ). It was pointed out that MI only converted one third down play in the second half. Bad stat until you realize that stat was 1 for 1.
In addition to this, Michigan was usually up by double digits in these games, had an amazing defense, and plays in a conference that isnt known for offense. There is a reason they did not risk passing it.
@@jeffcoleman5947They don't. Michigan threw about 90% of the time on third down when the line to gain was greater than two yards. No clue what this guy is talking about.
I've been grading NFL prospects longer than I'd care to admit lol..... When I said Tom Brady was the best QB in the class, I literally got laughed out of the war room.... We passed on him 6 times.... Not one of the powers that be who thought I was crazy ever said you were right... Every year I see the media hyped so-called top prospects... Every year I see them fail at the next level... Look where the best to ever do it were drafted and who was taken ahead of them... Folks get too enamored with athletic ability, stats, arm strength etc... Any QB that makes it to the NFL can make all of the throws.. As someone who played in the league, you know it's 90% mental in the NFL..... I will take a smart QB over an athlete every time. When I interviewed QB's I'd say: if you come out of the huddle and see this look and have the authority to call what ever you want at the line, what would you do? No One watched more film and/or had a better understanding of the opposing defense than Brady... He knew exactly how to attack what he saw. One of the most important aspects of NFL QBs is the ability to process information quickly. We call it vision.... You can't coach the way a QB sees the field... That comes from preparation. The ability to get through all of the reads, make the right decision and deliver an accurate pass in less than 3 seconds, with someone in their face is priceless.... Footwork, anticipation, accuracy and read react skills are imperative. However, in my mind, the most important trait is mental toughness... The ability to perform on the big stage under immense pressure or to recover from a fatal mistake. Facing adversity... McCarthy has proven he can do that with less talent at WR than some of the other guys.... Folks make Williams/Mahomes comparisons... I see Mahomes in these plays... Some of these off platform throws on the move are ridiculous... He just drops dimes in tight windows is all... Factor in his ability to make plays with his legs, it's a wrap... The kid finds a way to make big plays in big moments. The Dak Prescott's of the league choke repeatedly... I call them fair weather QBs... Roman Wilson was his best weapon and most have a 3rd round grade on him... He didn't have a Neighbors, Harrison, Odunze, etc... When grading a QB, you also have to factor in who he was playing with.... Both of his tackles will be lucky to get drafted before the 7th round if at all... Zak Zinter, his best IOL has a 4th round grade by most... I digress... ua-cam.com/video/vp_LivUDe4g/v-deo.htmlsi=5J28IXfHQcE8FLyY
Thanks for writing what you did, very interesting and informative, I'm stoked to see this kid doing his stuff, and as a vikes fan thrilled to hear your Mahomes comparison, he's just a kid and has lots of time to develop, it won't be overnight, I just hope it's positive and hope they build an acceptable o-line around him, so glad cousins is gone as I wasn't a fan, thsnks again, skol
@@StevenNeidleinyeah he was awesome in those sets yeah maybe he didn’t have to have a lot of throws on third down but ain’t that what you want! Having a bunch of third and shorts! When we were third and king seemed like he always made a play
What the stat Chase sited doesn’t mention is how many of those were 3rd and shorts and what the team’s success rate was. Michigan was 44th on 3rd down and 3rd on 4th down. If you watched them often they would have no problem running it on 3rd and 4 and then again running it on 4th abd 1 or even a long 1. It’s hard to criticize the offensive focus and play selection of a team that went undefeated.
@@ryankennedy4521Third and long. His completion percentage didn't change under pressure or during different game situations it was always around 70%. Unless he was throwing to his left but apparently he is working on that.
There was a guy who only played for 2 seasons at Michigan. People said- they didn't have enough tape on him, wasn't asked to do that much, only started 16 games- that guy's name- Tom Brady.
NFL teams care most about McCarthy’s performances in the OSU and playoff games the last 2 years. He made mistakes, but bounced back from his mistakes, made critical 3rd and 4th down plays when they counted the most in the 2nd half. He will be a top 5 pick.
Great vixeo, but I i will say regarding the third down pass attempt stats, its important to remember Michigan dominated the vast majority of their schedule. JJ didnt even play in the 4th quarter of something like 7 games. I believe they won like 11 games by 20+. Harbaugh isn't a coach that looked to run up the score or rack up stats so in those games where UM was comfortably ahead they typically were content to just work the clock and run the ball. When JJ waa needed to make plays, especially on 3rd down, he was very good.
Saying JJ was low on third down yards is super misleading. His yards per attempt and compleation rating on third down were almost the best in college football
Speaking to the 3rd down problem you brought up, hes top 5 in 3rd down competition %. His attempts were lower due to how many 3rd and shorts Michigan had and their steller run game.
@5 minutes its kind of funny the criticism that he didn't throw much on 3rd down, but when you look at the stats (comp %, YPA, conversion rate, etc), the dude was elite on 3rd downs. And this 3rd and long run, which they get to 4th and 1, then they convert... that's winning football. Yeah, maybe you don't want to be doing that in the NFL - fine, but that's a different argument. And Mahommes certainly scrambles a ton.
@ChaseDanielShow One of the things I noticed that you didn't like about about JJ eyes section.. Like the outside in look. JJ was locking on to his best receiver Roman Wilson for first looks. Didn't matter where Roman would line up he was the first look. If you break down Michigan receivers Roman is far and away the top guy. If that changes your mind at all about JJ. Liked your breakdown keep up the great film work!
The two passes to Corum were brilliant calls by OC Sherrone Moore. He’s been amazing at breaking tendencies in big moments this last season. Like against PSU, we didn’t run the ball with power much this season before then and in the biggest game, ran power the entire game basically. In the Bama game, usually when Corum is the in the backfield we rarely throw it to him, usually he’s used as a blocker or he carries the ball, we changed tendencies and threw him the ball in the biggest moments and I don’t think Saban was expecting that
To your 2nd clip, he was bottom half in passing attempts on third down, but they also had one of the shortest yards to gain on 3rd down in the country, and he was also one of the most efficient passers on 3rd down in the country.
Hey chase, the reason jj was 66th for pass attempts on 3rd down was partly due to the lopsided scores of the game. The first 6 games Michigan’s starters didn’t play the 4th. Not to mention Michigan being ahead of the chains on 3rd down. But jj did lead the country in ypa on 3rd down.
I will say that is hard to judge JJ on one game. It is a stretch to say "he should have thrown In interception", when in the play he didn't. As for the 3rd down thing, both the Lions and the Wolverines here in Michigan run on 3rd and long because they are willing to go for it on 4th and short. That throw at the 12:33 mark was superdeluxe. WHY is the Ref in the middle of the play? Seems like JJ had to hesitate slightly on that throw. Really hard to draft up a perfect play call that is depending on split second timing, then have a ref as a de facto defensive player that is literally setting a pick in the middle of the play.
Chalk that 1st Rose Bowl throw up to nerves. While JJ is known for throwing into tight windows, we RARELY saw something this reckless all year save the fluke Bowling Green game.
@@BransonBecker - the first muffed punt, yes. The last muffed punt that almost lost the game, no the sun was already long gone (poor guy, Thaw, will never live that one down....ugh.)
There was absolutely ZERO mention by anyone announcing the RoseBowl or afterward about how much the SUN direction effects those evening games there. It's well known that when you win the coin toss, put the west end zone to your back for the first half. The shadows were so damn obvious and yet not one mention. That early muffed kick return by Michigan, same thing - staring at the sun.
If you watch film from 1999 with Tom Brady you saw him get pulled out all day for the other guy. Tom was just OK in college so big time coaching is the key. JJ would get his at Minnesota or Denver.
McCarthy’s first down conversion percentage on third and 7 or longer is an astonishing 55.1%. None of the other big name quarterbacks in the draft can even get their percentage into the 40% range, let alone the 50’s.
you didnt even show his two best throws of the game. The deep out to roman on the right side and then the cross to the left to set up the tying TD, both on the same drive. Seems like you just wanted to find more wrongs than rights. He isn't perfect but hes much better than you gave him credit for.
This take is from one game ? You did not do a deep dive at all. From last season to his last game would have been a true understanding of this guy's abilities, who I'm also not sold on to be in the top 10, let alone possibly top 3 QB. He def needs another year, but his stock was too high, staying would have a higher percentage of hurting his stock with an all new line, coaches, etc... This one game take is incomplete.
Lol. The guy with a 27-1 off the charts starting QB record for his career and has the highest winning percentage of ANY QB in more than a half CENTURY!
He’ll never admit it but I think JJ literally couldn’t see the defenders on that first pass. The sun was setting against the upper bowl of the stadium and the view from behind the play on the TV broadcast made you wonder how he could have seen anyone more than 10 feet in front of him. (Still shouldn’t have thrown it, obviously.)
∆∆∆∆∆ this∆∆∆∆∆∆. Anyone who has sat in those stands for an afternoon/evening game knows, that sun is insane there. Actually, the stadium direction is idiotically placed IMO, should be North/South. When you win the coin toss put your back to the ocean and watch the opponent deal with blinding sun. Yet not one single mention by Herbstreit or Fowler.
3rd down passing attempts is kind of a bad stat to use for Michigan football in 2023. They had a TON of 3rd and shorts. And they had Blake Corum. So obviously a lot of their 3rd down attempts are going to be short run conversions. Like others have pointed out, JJ was the highest rated QB is all of college on 3rd and Long this past year. Other than that, enjoyed the video. First one i've watched of yours, very well done.
I was always a jj fa, and honestly, any michigan qb is playing very high level ball. They are all next man up ready and most of all, have something to prove. That is success critical.
The fact that McCarthy had a high completion percentage and made really great tight throws DESPITE having half the pass attempts of a Pennix or Caleb is actually really impressive. QBs thrive off getting into a rhythm, Michigan’s offense isn’t designed that way. They wanted McCarthy to make big throws when necessary and he did. That translates well to the NFL
Not all coaches coach it outside-in. LSU coached it inside-out as well, just go and watch Jayden Daniel’s tape. College has wider hash marks. So the inside throws are easier, so inside-out reads are more common. So even if it is primarily taught outside-in in the NFL OR if you were coached outside-in when in college, that doesn’t mean that is how his coach told him to read it. So it’s not his fault if that is how he is reading it based on what his coach wants. My biggest concern is his slight inaccuracies at times, like when he threw the ball behind his WR #8 on that third down and they ended up 2 yards short of the 1st. How often will that happen when he is in the NFL? Or will he improve some much like Josh Allen
Dude. You can tell you didn’t understand Michigan team. It wasn’t that they didn’t trust him. It was that they were really good at running the ball. To include JJ
jj mcC He performed exceptionally under pressure last season, gaining 9.5 yards per attempt and completing 63% of his passes. Both are among the best marks in college football.
You covered up the last play w your " please watch another one of my videos"...... lol. I think JJ is a 2nd rd guy that needs to sit for a yr but his upside with a decent defense in NFL is higher than Alex Smith who doesn't get nearly enough credit. Could be the pick of the draft in right situation. I think Seattle and Chicago will move up in a panic to draft him maybe. Would be very interesting to see him go to New England honestly
Good analysis, you mentioned he was 66th in college on 3rd down attempts,was also 1st in 3rd and long. He also had a much higher(to my surprise ) % of completions on the move then Caleb Williams. Lik20-25% higher
Not to make excuses but those long, dark shadows in the first play mean he's looking directly into a low sun. Even with a visor I don't care what your QB skills are, throwing directly into the sun you're going to be partly blinded. Reads will be slower and more difficult. Was the decision making poor though? Yeah.
This guy has great pocket presence, good footwork, has the ability improvise and make plays, the timing is great as well. This guys downside is that deep ball, if he misses, he misses bad but it’s something he could improve on
its like people who do breakdowns on Michigan didn't watched them until Late November lmaoo. Why would they they throw on 3rd down when you have short yardage everytime with one of the best RB in CFB and a great oline?
As a Michigan fan, when I look at Bo Nix and JJ, yes people will say that Bo is the better QB but Bo did not play against top 20 defenses in the Pac12. JJ played against three teams with an top five defense. The psu game he did not have time and the osu game was just ok, just like the Iowa game. JJ would be more NFL ready then Bo. Bo needs good play calling and an WR's group. Not sure what team Bo would fix on.
I believe this is one of the guys Washington Commanders Adam Peters is looking at most with other ones. my opinion he will be drafted by Washington Commanders
This guy's bust level is through the roof. You could get a QB who could be ok or a total bust and a total waste of a draft pick. He wasn't asked to do anything every year but hand it off. Again, not his fault. You play the way the HC tells you. But it doesn't make you a first-round pick. Anyone picking this guy in the first round is insane. A 4th or later he's worth rolling the dice on. But a first? My Lord no. It just shows how blindly stupid teams have gotten. They are draft QBs that have no business being drafted. They bust and they are shocked. How? Did any of them what the film of these guys in college. If they did, they'd not draft them. They are all just rolling the dice and maybe the guy hits even if the odds are better at them winning the lottery.
I never seen a QB gain so much hype, but it's well deserved he could become the real deal. Physically he reminds me alot of Kyler Murray when he came out of OU.
Nothing like Murray. Kyler Murray is 8 inches shorter than Jj. The little Midget can’t throw over the line. Murray played in the big 12 with no defense. He made no precision passes. Very different.
That outside-in play you said he went inside-out... You're saying his eyes were inside to start. His helmet was, but his eyes are not visible. Eyes are moveable. You can't say, definitively, that he went inside-out unless you can see his actual eyeballs.
JJ McCarthy will be selected 4th overall by the Washington Commanders… Minnesota will trade 11, 23, 108, 2025 1+4, Darrisaw for 2 & Andrew Wylie (Wylie is a 2 time SB winner, can play RT - move O’Neil to LT or can play G) Washington will then trade 11, 23, 2025 1 + 4, Dyami Brown to Arizona for 4 & 27 Washington then takes Roman Wilson & Corum rd.3 Zinter rd.5 Barner rd.7
That first argument was pretty ignorant I'm not gonna lie. Acting like mich didn't trust JJ to throw on third downs. Reason his attempts are so low is because he played 3 quarters for half the season and mich was a run-dominant team. C'mon man
I don't know if he will be a great NFL quarterback or not. I hope he ends up that way because I think he's a solid dude and a great teammate. He wins. He finds ways to win games. Might not always be pretty, but he gets it done. Mahomes isn't always pretty but he finds ways to get it done. We will find out what teams think of him in about a week and a half.
We haven't ran JJ all year because he couldn't get hurt so running him on 3rd down and long is a change up from what we've done all year. That's why the play call.
I think many are missing the fact that Harbaugh’s job was to win a Natty not showcase JJ McCarthy who is still very young. Michigan had a great running game and defense. With that being the case and being in the Big Ten, why wouldn’t you run your offense the way they did? And Harbaugh turned out to be correct. National Champs.
I know hes going in the first round but i wouldnt take him there. Like a late second or third ok but some team will probably reach and take him. Maybe he pans out if he lands in the perfect situation like purdy for san fran but you cant put a team on his shoulders. Hes a sit and stash guy but i think at best he could be a journeyman type that bounces a round never at one place all that long but dont see him ever being a top 15 qb in the nfl.
Why are all these teams willing to move up in the 1st round for a Justin Fields with less NFL experience but wouldn't trade for the real thing for basically pennies?
Seems like a better option than drake maybe. Or maybe at least similar. Good physical traits. Needs nfl coaching. Not a day one player shouldn’t be a day one pick.
McCarthy is never going to be there for the teams you mentioned. NFL arm and escapability - that’s just a rare combo, plus he’s a good decision maker. He’s going top 10 and very likely top 5 most likely to the AZ Cards, who want to move on from Murray.
15:20 "Very friendly NFL offense"... my dude you definitely haven't watched much Michigan football lol They were a smash mouth old school offence with 4 TE on the field for a considerable amount of time. He was 66th in 3rd down attempts for a reason. Michigan ground teams into the dirt. The Bama gameplan wasn't the normal gameplan. Watch the Penn State game lol
He missed Corum. He should have thrown to him. He was trying to throw it away and threw a bad throw away pass. Both Harbaugh and Moore's philosophy all season was to run, run, run and then more running. Wear down the defense. They ran thirty-two straight times against Penn State in the second half of that game. McCarthy did exactly what was asked and required of him to do. The fact that Ohio State also recruited him also makes me believe that he would have been throwing the ball a lot since their offense is pass heavy. Comparison stats wise don't tell the tale when teams run different schemes. When McCarthy gets to the NFL we'll see whether his game translates. He did excellent at the combine on the white board. He understood the pro game really well which impressed the scouts. That matters. Will it translate? I don't know but he learned a lot from Harbaugh. Every QB in college football makes bad throws or misses a read. Penix missed a wide open receiver near the ten yard line on the play that Sainristil intercepted and ran back in the fourth quarter of the National Championship game because he forced a throw into coverage. Yet everyone at the combine was wowed by how well Penix threw the ball. Michigan ran a pro style defense and Penix looked bad in the game and missed a bunch of throws so does that make him a poor decision maker or thrower of the ball and that he won't be able to take his talent to the next level? I don't know. We won't know until he gets there. The sample size for McCarthy is small and stands out because of that. It stands out because if Harbaugh could have he would have run the ball every play. College football doesn't predict who will be a successful quarterback in the NFL. I'm thinking of Justin Fields, Bryce Young or Sam Darnold. Maybe the Jet's first round pick Zach whatshisname. Or how about Ryan Leaf or Jamarcus Russell. Vince Evans comes to mind. Andre Ware, Ritter in Atlanta or maybe Joey Harrington and Rodney Peete who was a heisman candidate the year Barry Sanders won. I could go on and on but why bother. Some may prove to be better than what they are now. I think Fields will be better but I won't know that until he gets with a new team that will play a system that highlights his abilities better than the Bears did. Young might be better as well given some time to adapt to the game. Their sample size is still too small to tell, but up to this point it has not gone well for being such high draft picks. Bias and prejudging a players capability at the next level based on college performance hasn't gone well historically. There are first round success stories for sure. Stroud this year and Hurts success in Philadelphia come to mind. But the more common theme is first round busts seem to be a dime a dozen. Having a great combine doesn't tell the tale and going 27-1 and winning a national championship doesn't matter either to invoke more important stats. Winning and championships. None of it guarantees success at the next level until the player gets to the NFL and demonstrates their ability to play.
What kind of stat is 66th in pass attempt on 3rd down? You need context. Did they lead the nation in 3rd and short? Not saying it's not a valid statement, but without context it's a dumb stat.
Criticism is all good. But every PPF stats and ALL current scouts completely are saying the exact opposite on your 3rd down stats. Can you source your sources vs nfl scouts sources on your 3rd down stats?
@ChaseDanielShow it's because you aren't filtering out 3rd and 2 or less. They are a running team, theyre gonna run on 3rd and 2 or less. Michigan faced 31 3rd/4th and 2 or more this year against OSU, Bama, and Washington. They called pass plays on 27 of those 31
@@ChaseDanielShow I’m pretty sure he was the most efficient QB in the entire nation on 3rd and 7+. Go look at his splits as others have noted. He was 36/49 for 544 yards with 6 TD, 0 Int, and 27 first downs. Hard to be better.
Just starting the video and reading the comments. I see third and long conversion rate. Can I ask why are they in a third and long in the first place? Lol
J J really didn't have a top notch receiver corp to throw to. So i think it's a 50/50 proposition, no doubt he's got the tools to be an NFL quarterback iI guess time will tell.
Love all the stupid "lanky" JJ criticism by the idiot "experts" who watch a few clips and then spout crap. J.J. was a HOCKEY player. Watch some of his runs the championship year, he refused to go down and pulled OSU guys with him for another 10 yards. He's tough as hell and is only going to get tougher. BET.
Thumbs up if you like him, thumbs down if you’d pass
How do you feel about JJ fitting into the Vikings offense? I believe he would be a good fit but I don’t have your experience to judge. To me he looks like a more athletic Cousins but I might be reaching.
They still not going to understand brother great video …. I think his game is going to translate better to the nfl he played in a pro system
At 11 yes I'd take him. NO WAY I'm trading next years 1st to move up to get him....Vikings are going to have a top 3 pick next year
We can’t see the thumbs down anymore
@@WinfordMI think JJ left because he had knowledge that Harbaugh was leaving. In an interview the day after the Washington game, Will Johnson said he personally knew Harbaugh’s plans, implying that the team had been told. Regardless, I would bet on JJ to be successful in the NFL simply because he’s so talented and his work ethic is insane. That combo just does not fail
JJ on 3rd and 7+ (where he ranks amongst draft class:
14.8% of pass attempts (1st)
73% completion percentage (2nd)
544 yards (2nd)
6 TDs (1st)
0 INTs (T-1st)
149.15 passer rating (1st)
This notion that they didnt trust him is absolutely wild lol
W comment dude doesn’t know ball
So 86% of the time he failed to convent. Ok. If it's 3rd and 15 and you complete a pass for 10 yards you didn't nothing. So, what. That's sort of what you are saying here. Bump it off and sometimes a WR, TE or RB breaks a tackle for a first down 14.8% of the time.
@@larrylindgren9484 no that’s saying he was trusted to throw on 3rd and long and his 3rd down conversion rate was higher than any of the other top QB draft prospects by a wide margin
@@larrylindgren9484you misinterpreted the stat, but at least you did it very confidently!
@@larrylindgren9484no, 27% of the time he failed to convert, try reading the stats again
JJ was the best qb in college football on 3rd and long. Completion percentage tds and YPA.
So if he is great at third and long then what's the point that MI throws so seldom on third down? If it's third and short, a lot of times you dont need to throw. MI threw on third when needed, and JJ did it well. This debunks the 66th nationally throwing on third down.
Lol, this reminds me of a sarcastic point from the MI-OSU 2021 game (which was not JJ). It was pointed out that MI only converted one third down play in the second half. Bad stat until you realize that stat was 1 for 1.
@@jeffcoleman5947yeah context is needed. 66th on 3rd down goes out the window when most Michigan’s 3rd downs were from within 2-3 yards.
In addition to this, Michigan was usually up by double digits in these games, had an amazing defense, and plays in a conference that isnt known for offense. There is a reason they did not risk passing it.
@@jeffcoleman5947They don't. Michigan threw about 90% of the time on third down when the line to gain was greater than two yards. No clue what this guy is talking about.
Actually Bo Nix had better completion percentage and YPA on 3rd and long. JJ did have the most TDs though.
I've been grading NFL prospects longer than I'd care to admit lol..... When I said Tom Brady was the best QB in the class, I literally got laughed out of the war room.... We passed on him 6 times.... Not one of the powers that be who thought I was crazy ever said you were right... Every year I see the media hyped so-called top prospects... Every year I see them fail at the next level... Look where the best to ever do it were drafted and who was taken ahead of them... Folks get too enamored with athletic ability, stats, arm strength etc... Any QB that makes it to the NFL can make all of the throws.. As someone who played in the league, you know it's 90% mental in the NFL..... I will take a smart QB over an athlete every time. When I interviewed QB's I'd say: if you come out of the huddle and see this look and have the authority to call what ever you want at the line, what would you do? No One watched more film and/or had a better understanding of the opposing defense than Brady... He knew exactly how to attack what he saw. One of the most important aspects of NFL QBs is the ability to process information quickly. We call it vision.... You can't coach the way a QB sees the field... That comes from preparation. The ability to get through all of the reads, make the right decision and deliver an accurate pass in less than 3 seconds, with someone in their face is priceless.... Footwork, anticipation, accuracy and read react skills are imperative. However, in my mind, the most important trait is mental toughness... The ability to perform on the big stage under immense pressure or to recover from a fatal mistake. Facing adversity... McCarthy has proven he can do that with less talent at WR than some of the other guys.... Folks make Williams/Mahomes comparisons... I see Mahomes in these plays... Some of these off platform throws on the move are ridiculous... He just drops dimes in tight windows is all... Factor in his ability to make plays with his legs, it's a wrap... The kid finds a way to make big plays in big moments. The Dak Prescott's of the league choke repeatedly... I call them fair weather QBs... Roman Wilson was his best weapon and most have a 3rd round grade on him... He didn't have a Neighbors, Harrison, Odunze, etc... When grading a QB, you also have to factor in who he was playing with.... Both of his tackles will be lucky to get drafted before the 7th round if at all... Zak Zinter, his best IOL has a 4th round grade by most... I digress... ua-cam.com/video/vp_LivUDe4g/v-deo.htmlsi=5J28IXfHQcE8FLyY
Thanks for writing what you did, very interesting and informative, I'm stoked to see this kid doing his stuff, and as a vikes fan thrilled to hear your Mahomes comparison, he's just a kid and has lots of time to develop, it won't be overnight, I just hope it's positive and hope they build an acceptable o-line around him, so glad cousins is gone as I wasn't a fan, thsnks again, skol
McCarthy's conversion rate on 3rd and long was close to the highest in college history.
Pretty sure it was a little over 73%. 😊
@@dalelange845 14.8% of pass attempts (1st)
73% completion percentage (2nd)
544 yards (2nd)
6 TDs (1st)
0 INTs (T-1st)
149.15 passer rating (1st)
@@StevenNeidleinyeah he was awesome in those sets yeah maybe he didn’t have to have a lot of throws on third down but ain’t that what you want! Having a bunch of third and shorts! When we were third and king seemed like he always made a play
What the stat Chase sited doesn’t mention is how many of those were 3rd and shorts and what the team’s success rate was.
Michigan was 44th on 3rd down and 3rd on 4th down. If you watched them often they would have no problem running it on 3rd and 4 and then again running it on 4th abd 1 or even a long 1.
It’s hard to criticize the offensive focus and play selection of a team that went undefeated.
@@ryankennedy4521Third and long. His completion percentage didn't change under pressure or during different game situations it was always around 70%. Unless he was throwing to his left but apparently he is working on that.
I believe he was statistically by far the best of the top draft QBs on third down and third and long. He can definitely do it.
There was a guy who only played for 2 seasons at Michigan. People said- they didn't have enough tape on him, wasn't asked to do that much, only started 16 games- that guy's name- Tom Brady.
😂😂 McCarthy is hot garbage. Jayden Daniels is the guy the Bears need to take
@@bocephus1633your take is hot garbage
you know nothing about football@@bocephus1633
Big ol' bust!
@@bocephus1633if you’re a bears fan, I hope you get your wish. So I can laugh my ass off at your incompetent organization
JJ McCarthy was named Rose Bowl MVP, for the record folks.
NFL teams care most about McCarthy’s performances in the OSU and playoff games the last 2 years. He made mistakes, but bounced back from his mistakes, made critical 3rd and 4th down plays when they counted the most in the 2nd half. He will be a top 5 pick.
Shhhhh don’t tell anyone I need my Vikings to get this guy.
as a lions fan and michigan fan, please no let him go to the saints or titans or something @@PopPunkSkol
@@li9hts0ut56 nah bro he’s ours
@PopPunkSkol well that puts me in a really pickle, becuase I want to root for him. But I can't root for you
@@li9hts0ut56 respect. But I’ll know deep down. Wayyyyyy deep down. Youll cheer just a little.
Great vixeo, but I i will say regarding the third down pass attempt stats, its important to remember Michigan dominated the vast majority of their schedule. JJ didnt even play in the 4th quarter of something like 7 games. I believe they won like 11 games by 20+. Harbaugh isn't a coach that looked to run up the score or rack up stats so in those games where UM was comfortably ahead they typically were content to just work the clock and run the ball. When JJ waa needed to make plays, especially on 3rd down, he was very good.
He has great poise at such a young age. I see great NFL potential for J.J.
Saying JJ was low on third down yards is super misleading. His yards per attempt and compleation rating on third down were almost the best in college football
I’d rather have a QB peaking in the NFL, not college, ie: Brady
Wow no way
Brady never heard of her 😂😂
Speaking to the 3rd down problem you brought up, hes top 5 in 3rd down competition %. His attempts were lower due to how many 3rd and shorts Michigan had and their steller run game.
@5 minutes its kind of funny the criticism that he didn't throw much on 3rd down, but when you look at the stats (comp %, YPA, conversion rate, etc), the dude was elite on 3rd downs. And this 3rd and long run, which they get to 4th and 1, then they convert... that's winning football. Yeah, maybe you don't want to be doing that in the NFL - fine, but that's a different argument. And Mahommes certainly scrambles a ton.
@ChaseDanielShow One of the things I noticed that you didn't like about about JJ eyes section.. Like the outside in look. JJ was locking on to his best receiver Roman Wilson for first looks. Didn't matter where Roman would line up he was the first look. If you break down Michigan receivers Roman is far and away the top guy. If that changes your mind at all about JJ. Liked your breakdown keep up the great film work!
The two passes to Corum were brilliant calls by OC Sherrone Moore. He’s been amazing at breaking tendencies in big moments this last season. Like against PSU, we didn’t run the ball with power much this season before then and in the biggest game, ran power the entire game basically. In the Bama game, usually when Corum is the in the backfield we rarely throw it to him, usually he’s used as a blocker or he carries the ball, we changed tendencies and threw him the ball in the biggest moments and I don’t think Saban was expecting that
The first play you showed was called back because the defender stepped out of bounds before he jumped.
But explaining it wasn't an INT just argues against his intent of the video so you weren't going to hear that.
To your 2nd clip, he was bottom half in passing attempts on third down, but they also had one of the shortest yards to gain on 3rd down in the country, and he was also one of the most efficient passers on 3rd down in the country.
Hey chase, the reason jj was 66th for pass attempts on 3rd down was partly due to the lopsided scores of the game. The first 6 games Michigan’s starters didn’t play the 4th. Not to mention Michigan being ahead of the chains on 3rd down. But jj did lead the country in ypa on 3rd down.
I will say that is hard to judge JJ on one game. It is a stretch to say "he should have thrown In interception", when in the play he didn't. As for the 3rd down thing, both the Lions and the Wolverines here in Michigan run on 3rd and long because they are willing to go for it on 4th and short.
That throw at the 12:33 mark was superdeluxe. WHY is the Ref in the middle of the play? Seems like JJ had to hesitate slightly on that throw. Really hard to draft up a perfect play call that is depending on split second timing, then have a ref as a de facto defensive player that is literally setting a pick in the middle of the play.
Coached an ex college and NFL quarterback and coach, whoever draft him will have a great one.
Chalk that 1st Rose Bowl throw up to nerves. While JJ is known for throwing into tight windows, we RARELY saw something this reckless all year save the fluke Bowling Green game.
"I'm gonna have to take a mulligan on that one" JJ
Not to mention he was looking straight at the sun. Rose bowl stadium is hard to face west at sunset. Same reason for the muffed punt later in the game
Bowling Green also led the FBS in interceptions 2023. They were well coached in the secondary
@@BransonBecker - the first muffed punt, yes. The last muffed punt that almost lost the game, no the sun was already long gone (poor guy, Thaw, will never live that one down....ugh.)
I pray JJ just proves all the haters wrong and shut everyone up all he did was win
U can see the shadows behind the players. He couldn't see
There was absolutely ZERO mention by anyone announcing the RoseBowl or afterward about how much the SUN direction effects those evening games there. It's well known that when you win the coin toss, put the west end zone to your back for the first half. The shadows were so damn obvious and yet not one mention. That early muffed kick return by Michigan, same thing - staring at the sun.
If you watch film from 1999 with Tom Brady you saw him get pulled out all day for the other guy. Tom was just OK in college so big time coaching is the key. JJ would get his at Minnesota or Denver.
McCarthy’s first down conversion percentage on third and 7 or longer is an astonishing 55.1%. None of the other big name quarterbacks in the draft can even get their percentage into the 40% range, let alone the 50’s.
you didnt even show his two best throws of the game. The deep out to roman on the right side and then the cross to the left to set up the tying TD, both on the same drive. Seems like you just wanted to find more wrongs than rights. He isn't perfect but hes much better than you gave him credit for.
This take is from one game ? You did not do a deep dive at all. From last season to his last game would have been a true understanding of this guy's abilities, who I'm also not sold on to be in the top 10, let alone possibly top 3 QB.
He def needs another year, but his stock was too high, staying would have a higher percentage of hurting his stock with an all new line, coaches, etc...
This one game take is incomplete.
You said he should come back another year and sit. Dude has 1 loss, 3 big ten titles and a natty. No way he returns to UM and sits.
He misspoke, I think. he does that alot in this vid. I think he meant coming back OR sitting (for a year in the NFL).
Lol. The guy with a 27-1 off the charts starting QB record for his career and has the highest winning percentage of ANY QB in more than a half CENTURY!
Plus his coach left
JJ is only 20 years old .. his NFL future is bright.
He’ll never admit it but I think JJ literally couldn’t see the defenders on that first pass. The sun was setting against the upper bowl of the stadium and the view from behind the play on the TV broadcast made you wonder how he could have seen anyone more than 10 feet in front of him. (Still shouldn’t have thrown it, obviously.)
∆∆∆∆∆ this∆∆∆∆∆∆. Anyone who has sat in those stands for an afternoon/evening game knows, that sun is insane there. Actually, the stadium direction is idiotically placed IMO, should be North/South. When you win the coin toss put your back to the ocean and watch the opponent deal with blinding sun. Yet not one single mention by Herbstreit or Fowler.
@@EnzoMoresi-mj8bcbecause Herbstreit never played in the rose bowl.
@@PD-we8vf - nice!
JJ didn’t play in the 4 quarter in 8 games. 27-1 says all I need to hear!!!
Great breakdown, very informative. Let's go Vikings!
Appreciate it!
Skol to the bowl
3rd down passing attempts is kind of a bad stat to use for Michigan football in 2023. They had a TON of 3rd and shorts. And they had Blake Corum. So obviously a lot of their 3rd down attempts are going to be short run conversions. Like others have pointed out, JJ was the highest rated QB is all of college on 3rd and Long this past year. Other than that, enjoyed the video. First one i've watched of yours, very well done.
It was the best only (and weird) stat he had to emphasize for criticism.
JJ was under center more than any qb in this class
I was always a jj fa, and honestly, any michigan qb is playing very high level ball. They are all next man up ready and most of all, have something to prove. That is success critical.
The fact that McCarthy had a high completion percentage and made really great tight throws DESPITE having half the pass attempts of a Pennix or Caleb is actually really impressive. QBs thrive off getting into a rhythm, Michigan’s offense isn’t designed that way. They wanted McCarthy to make big throws when necessary and he did. That translates well to the NFL
Not all coaches coach it outside-in. LSU coached it inside-out as well, just go and watch Jayden Daniel’s tape. College has wider hash marks. So the inside throws are easier, so inside-out reads are more common. So even if it is primarily taught outside-in in the NFL OR if you were coached outside-in when in college, that doesn’t mean that is how his coach told him to read it. So it’s not his fault if that is how he is reading it based on what his coach wants.
My biggest concern is his slight inaccuracies at times, like when he threw the ball behind his WR #8 on that third down and they ended up 2 yards short of the 1st. How often will that happen when he is in the NFL? Or will he improve some much like Josh Allen
Can you name 2 of Michigans wide receivers? No I didn’t think so
Roman Wilson ( will be a pro bowler, bank it)
...and....
Yukon Cornelius Johnson
Dude. You can tell you didn’t understand Michigan team. It wasn’t that they didn’t trust him. It was that they were really good at running the ball. To include JJ
👍🏼 I hope goes to the Raiders. He would be great throwing to DeVante Adams. Go Blue 👏🏽
jj mcC He performed exceptionally under pressure last season, gaining 9.5 yards per attempt and completing 63% of his passes. Both are among the best marks in college football.
You covered up the last play w your
" please watch another one of my videos"...... lol.
I think JJ is a 2nd rd guy that needs to sit for a yr but his upside with a decent defense in NFL is higher than Alex Smith who doesn't get nearly enough credit. Could be the pick of the draft in right situation.
I think Seattle and Chicago will move up in a panic to draft him maybe.
Would be very interesting to see him go to New England honestly
Good analysis, you mentioned he was 66th in college on 3rd down attempts,was also 1st in 3rd and long. He also had a much higher(to my surprise ) % of completions on the move then Caleb Williams. Lik20-25% higher
66th in passing attempts on 3rd down..... if Jim Harbaugh didnt trust him on 3rd down in college how will an NFL coach trust him?
Not to make excuses but those long, dark shadows in the first play mean he's looking directly into a low sun. Even with a visor I don't care what your QB skills are, throwing directly into the sun you're going to be partly blinded. Reads will be slower and more difficult. Was the decision making poor though? Yeah.
This guy has great pocket presence, good footwork, has the ability improvise and make plays, the timing is great as well. This guys downside is that deep ball, if he misses, he misses bad but it’s something he could improve on
His progressions too is a weakness
@@ecsxacysteezy9922completely innacurate take
its like people who do breakdowns on Michigan didn't watched them until Late November lmaoo. Why would they they throw on 3rd down when you have short yardage everytime with one of the best RB in CFB and a great oline?
As a Michigan fan, when I look at Bo Nix and JJ, yes people will say that Bo is the better QB but Bo did not play against top 20 defenses in the Pac12. JJ played against three teams with an top five defense. The psu game he did not have time and the osu game was just ok, just like the Iowa game. JJ would be more NFL ready then Bo. Bo needs good play calling and an WR's group. Not sure what team Bo would fix on.
Holy crap five minutes in and I’ve never heard anyone lie more.
I believe this is one of the guys Washington Commanders Adam Peters is looking at most with other ones. my opinion he will be drafted by Washington Commanders
This guy's bust level is through the roof. You could get a QB who could be ok or a total bust and a total waste of a draft pick. He wasn't asked to do anything every year but hand it off. Again, not his fault. You play the way the HC tells you. But it doesn't make you a first-round pick. Anyone picking this guy in the first round is insane. A 4th or later he's worth rolling the dice on. But a first? My Lord no. It just shows how blindly stupid teams have gotten. They are draft QBs that have no business being drafted. They bust and they are shocked. How? Did any of them what the film of these guys in college. If they did, they'd not draft them. They are all just rolling the dice and maybe the guy hits even if the odds are better at them winning the lottery.
Tell me you didn’t watch Michigan’s 2023 without telling me.
I never seen a QB gain so much hype, but it's well deserved he could become the real deal. Physically he reminds me alot of Kyler Murray when he came out of OU.
Nothing like Murray. Kyler Murray is 8 inches shorter than Jj. The little Midget can’t throw over the line. Murray played in the big 12 with no defense. He made no precision passes. Very different.
The disrespect at silver dollar city is crazy. They top 1 and it’s not close.
Do you think JJ is looking at inside guy to hold off defender on the outside guy the actual target? He did that a lot this year.
Harbaugh is a coach that loves running. Guarantee LA will be a run heavy team before long
That outside-in play you said he went inside-out... You're saying his eyes were inside to start. His helmet was, but his eyes are not visible. Eyes are moveable. You can't say, definitively, that he went inside-out unless you can see his actual eyeballs.
JJ McCarthy will be selected 4th overall by the Washington Commanders…
Minnesota will trade 11, 23, 108, 2025 1+4, Darrisaw for 2 & Andrew Wylie (Wylie is a 2 time SB winner, can play RT - move O’Neil to LT or can play G)
Washington will then trade 11, 23, 2025 1 + 4, Dyami Brown to Arizona for 4 & 27
Washington then takes Roman Wilson & Corum rd.3
Zinter rd.5
Barner rd.7
That first argument was pretty ignorant I'm not gonna lie. Acting like mich didn't trust JJ to throw on third downs. Reason his attempts are so low is because he played 3 quarters for half the season and mich was a run-dominant team. C'mon man
I don't know if he will be a great NFL quarterback or not. I hope he ends up that way because I think he's a solid dude and a great teammate. He wins. He finds ways to win games. Might not always be pretty, but he gets it done. Mahomes isn't always pretty but he finds ways to get it done. We will find out what teams think of him in about a week and a half.
NFL yes man! This guy can never give a realistic evaluation of anything. He is Mr everyone is a Star! Like a Cheerleader.
Why did you flip on your “Bears should keep Justin and trade the pick” stance so easily?
We haven't ran JJ all year because he couldn't get hurt so running him on 3rd down and long is a change up from what we've done all year. That's why the play call.
I think many are missing the fact that Harbaugh’s job was to win a Natty not showcase JJ McCarthy who is still very young. Michigan had a great running game and defense. With that being the case and being in the Big Ten, why wouldn’t you run your offense the way they did? And Harbaugh turned out to be correct. National Champs.
Having a swivel and being told to just take a read ios the easiest thing to coach. Vs not having one.
Are you mizzou chase Daniel ?😭 bro you was so tuff in college
I know hes going in the first round but i wouldnt take him there. Like a late second or third ok but some team will probably reach and take him. Maybe he pans out if he lands in the perfect situation like purdy for san fran but you cant put a team on his shoulders. Hes a sit and stash guy but i think at best he could be a journeyman type that bounces a round never at one place all that long but dont see him ever being a top 15 qb in the nfl.
Nobody got luckier and had more dropped picks in his career than JJ 💯
First play where he makes a bad decision, do you see where the sun is coming from?
There’s always an issue at that stadium early on.
JJ was statistically the best QB on third down
Bears trade down, grab McCarthy @ 9 #GoBlue 〽️
Why are all these teams willing to move up in the 1st round for a Justin Fields with less NFL experience but wouldn't trade for the real thing for basically pennies?
Seems like a better option than drake maybe. Or maybe at least similar. Good physical traits. Needs nfl coaching. Not a day one player shouldn’t be a day one pick.
McCarthy is never going to be there for the teams you mentioned. NFL arm and escapability - that’s just a rare combo, plus he’s a good decision maker. He’s going top 10 and very likely top 5 most likely to the AZ Cards, who want to move on from Murray.
Love this [armchair] guy dissing WR Roman Wilson for not staying in bounds on that amazing trick play.
15:20 "Very friendly NFL offense"... my dude you definitely haven't watched much Michigan football lol They were a smash mouth old school offence with 4 TE on the field for a considerable amount of time. He was 66th in 3rd down attempts for a reason. Michigan ground teams into the dirt. The Bama gameplan wasn't the normal gameplan. Watch the Penn State game lol
You broke down film from 1 game? Every other analyst has been watching him all year
If he would’ve come out next year he probably been #1 overall
He missed Corum. He should have thrown to him. He was trying to throw it away and threw a bad throw away pass. Both Harbaugh and Moore's philosophy all season was to run, run, run and then more running. Wear down the defense. They ran thirty-two straight times against Penn State in the second half of that game. McCarthy did exactly what was asked and required of him to do. The fact that Ohio State also recruited him also makes me believe that he would have been throwing the ball a lot since their offense is pass heavy. Comparison stats wise don't tell the tale when teams run different schemes. When McCarthy gets to the NFL we'll see whether his game translates. He did excellent at the combine on the white board. He understood the pro game really well which impressed the scouts. That matters. Will it translate? I don't know but he learned a lot from Harbaugh. Every QB in college football makes bad throws or misses a read. Penix missed a wide open receiver near the ten yard line on the play that Sainristil intercepted and ran back in the fourth quarter of the National Championship game because he forced a throw into coverage. Yet everyone at the combine was wowed by how well Penix threw the ball. Michigan ran a pro style defense and Penix looked bad in the game and missed a bunch of throws so does that make him a poor decision maker or thrower of the ball and that he won't be able to take his talent to the next level? I don't know. We won't know until he gets there. The sample size for McCarthy is small and stands out because of that. It stands out because if Harbaugh could have he would have run the ball every play. College football doesn't predict who will be a successful quarterback in the NFL. I'm thinking of Justin Fields, Bryce Young or Sam Darnold. Maybe the Jet's first round pick Zach whatshisname. Or how about Ryan Leaf or Jamarcus Russell. Vince Evans comes to mind. Andre Ware, Ritter in Atlanta or maybe Joey Harrington and Rodney Peete who was a heisman candidate the year Barry Sanders won. I could go on and on but why bother. Some may prove to be better than what they are now. I think Fields will be better but I won't know that until he gets with a new team that will play a system that highlights his abilities better than the Bears did. Young might be better as well given some time to adapt to the game. Their sample size is still too small to tell, but up to this point it has not gone well for being such high draft picks. Bias and prejudging a players capability at the next level based on college performance hasn't gone well historically. There are first round success stories for sure. Stroud this year and Hurts success in Philadelphia come to mind. But the more common theme is first round busts seem to be a dime a dozen. Having a great combine doesn't tell the tale and going 27-1 and winning a national championship doesn't matter either to invoke more important stats. Winning and championships. None of it guarantees success at the next level until the player gets to the NFL and demonstrates their ability to play.
You are about to see how fundamentals work in the NFL. Harbaugh will show ya next year.
How do you have this dude over Penix? Penix literally does everything you're wanting to see from JJ and more.
What kind of stat is 66th in pass attempt on 3rd down? You need context. Did they lead the nation in 3rd and short? Not saying it's not a valid statement, but without context it's a dumb stat.
Criticism is all good. But every PPF stats and ALL current scouts completely are saying the exact opposite on your 3rd down stats.
Can you source your sources vs nfl scouts sources on your 3rd down stats?
NFL research department is my source
@ChaseDanielShow it's because you aren't filtering out 3rd and 2 or less. They are a running team, theyre gonna run on 3rd and 2 or less. Michigan faced 31 3rd/4th and 2 or more this year against OSU, Bama, and Washington. They called pass plays on 27 of those 31
@@ChaseDanielShow I’m pretty sure he was the most efficient QB in the entire nation on 3rd and 7+. Go look at his splits as others have noted. He was 36/49 for 544 yards with 6 TD, 0 Int, and 27 first downs. Hard to be better.
@@RickSanchez167 wrong, that’s not the stat. They incorporate that.
It was intercepted, but the defender who caught it had one foot out of bounds when he jumped for it.
Which means it wasn't "intercepted.". It was caught but it was meaningless.
The sun was in his eyes
Michigan had relatively few 3rd and long downs, and when you have the best RB duo and best O-line why pass when you can keep the ball safe and run
Also do we really think third round conversion rate in college translates to nfl??
Down*
I'm 6 minutes into your video. Good job. But I can tell u simply don't understand the Michigan offense.
Just starting the video and reading the comments. I see third and long conversion rate. Can I ask why are they in a third and long in the first place? Lol
Lol
A what throw? @ 6:45
J J really didn't have a top notch receiver corp to throw to. So i think it's a 50/50 proposition, no doubt he's got the tools to be an NFL quarterback iI guess time will tell.
13:00 I could make this “really good throw” in 5th grade
some of this analysis was way over-hyped.. for me JJ is 6th out of the 6 QBs touted for possible 1st round picks..
You missed that he was the best passer on 3rd in long last year. And I’ve wasted 3 minutes of my life on a half assed break down
Love all the stupid "lanky" JJ criticism by the idiot "experts" who watch a few clips and then spout crap. J.J. was a HOCKEY player. Watch some of his runs the championship year, he refused to go down and pulled OSU guys with him for another 10 yards. He's tough as hell and is only going to get tougher. BET.
The Giants are high on JJ and Drake Maye. I think Maye will be gone at 6. I got the Giants getting JJ.
Bustarific!
Why is no one doing breakdowns on Jordan Travis
Who?
93% on 3rd downs I believe.