Thanks for the video. I just watched it and found it interesting and also wondering if cycle is still intact with the health/economic crisis currently impacting the world.
Great simplictic explaination of Phil's 'clock'. Given Sydney and Melbourne's current downturn (3) what would be the opinion regarding development sites in Sydney that could be constructed during (3-4) and then sold during (4-6)?
Ben. Since the making of this video and the current covid pandemic. Do you think that the cycle has changed its position considering the low interest rates and low unemployment. If so what part of the cycle do you think we are in right now. Thanks Mike
Coming into a year later, are your expectations playing out? I just bought under market value in the southern highlands NSW and know I’ll need to wait longer term but it’s positive cash flow from the start... interested to hear your thoughts
how does this cycle link in with the htw clock? it seems you are saying all of aus is at the same point in the cycle but the htw clock represents cities at different points in the cycle? cheers.
Hi Ben, When/What year would be a good time to sell a unit/townhouse in Sydney? I know there is no crystal ball :) but I just like to know your opinion. Many thank Lynn
I would recommend studying Phil Anderson, Fred Harrison and Herron, Todd White (HTW) to get a better understanding of the global and local cycles occurring.
I've been a follower of Fred Harrison and the 18 year cycle for about 5 years now, I'm from the UK but I know Phil Anderson's work too, but really, I'm not sure if the Western 18 year cycle truly applies to Australia today. Yes the Oz market has been tied to the US's, but as you acknowledge this tie was at least to an extent broken post GFC via the resource boom and China. It's notable that Asia had it's own crisis in 1997/8, and it was plausible that 18 years later, 2015, it would again, indeed China did see a stock market rout that year. But though a full blown crisis was avoided, due in part to better foreign currency reserves, today stocks are falling back to lows and the EM's are generally struggling, and not only under pressure from tariffs as headlines may suggest. This deepening downturn in China will have large repercussions on Australia's economy. Just as it's eventual recovery will. In other words it may be Oz is now a satellite of China's. Undoubtedly, in a worst case scenario, Brisbane property would be far safer bet than Sydney, Melbourne, just as the smart money in the UK has moved from London to Manchester and others. But regarding whether this stays in 'mid cycle' territory or moves into something more bearish for the economy overall, personally I would expect the latter.
Thank you for the response. According to Phil - he indicates every 18 years on average. We recommend purchasing his book 'The Secret Life of Realestate & Banking' for more information.
I’m starting to watch every single video that you share Ben , thank you for your family’s hard work 🙏
Thank you so much for the kind words! We appreciate it more than you know
Thanks for the video. I just watched it and found it interesting and also wondering if cycle is still intact with the health/economic crisis currently impacting the world.
Thanks for the kind words. Yes the cycle is definitely still intact. This crisis lines up perfectly with the mid cycle slowdown we are currently in.
I'm from the future :) The cycle happens
Great simplictic explaination of Phil's 'clock'. Given Sydney and Melbourne's current downturn (3)
what would be the opinion regarding development sites in Sydney that could be constructed during (3-4)
and then sold during (4-6)?
Ben. Since the making of this video and the current covid pandemic. Do you think that the cycle has changed its position considering the low interest rates and low unemployment. If so what part of the cycle do you think we are in right now. Thanks Mike
P.S love your vids. I listen to them driving down from Sunny Coast to Brisbane everyday
Coming into a year later, are your expectations playing out? I just bought under market value in the southern highlands NSW and know I’ll need to wait longer term but it’s positive cash flow from the start... interested to hear your thoughts
how does this cycle link in with the htw clock? it seems you are saying all of aus is at the same point in the cycle but the htw clock represents cities at different points in the cycle? cheers.
Hi Alex, HTW focuses on local (Australia), while Phil Anderson focuses on global. I recommend reading his book for more information.
@@pumpedonproperty thanks for your reply, that makes sense. Yes I'm trying to get my hands on the book. My library is getting it in for me. Cheers
Hi Ben, When/What year would be a good time to sell a unit/townhouse in Sydney? I know there is no crystal ball :) but I just like to know your opinion. Many thank Lynn
I would recommend studying Phil Anderson, Fred Harrison and Herron, Todd White (HTW) to get a better understanding of the global and local cycles occurring.
Great video Ben
I've been a follower of Fred Harrison and the 18 year cycle for about 5 years now, I'm from the UK but I know Phil Anderson's work too, but really, I'm not sure if the Western 18 year cycle truly applies to Australia today.
Yes the Oz market has been tied to the US's, but as you acknowledge this tie was at least to an extent broken post GFC via the resource boom and China.
It's notable that Asia had it's own crisis in 1997/8, and it was plausible that 18 years later, 2015, it would again, indeed China did see a stock market rout that year. But though a full blown crisis was avoided, due in part to better foreign currency reserves, today stocks are falling back to lows and the EM's are generally struggling, and not only under pressure from tariffs as headlines may suggest.
This deepening downturn in China will have large repercussions on Australia's economy. Just as it's eventual recovery will. In other words it may be Oz is now a satellite of China's.
Undoubtedly, in a worst case scenario, Brisbane property would be far safer bet than Sydney, Melbourne, just as the smart money in the UK has moved from London to Manchester and others. But regarding whether this stays in 'mid cycle' territory or moves into something more bearish for the economy overall, personally I would expect the latter.
Thank you for the response and your insights.
It will be very interesting to monitor going forward.
how often does the gfc come around?
Thank you for the response.
According to Phil - he indicates every 18 years on average. We recommend purchasing his book 'The Secret Life of Realestate & Banking' for more information.
Every 7 years on average. We are at 10 atm. So over due.
There are two marked slowdowns. The big one is on average 18.6 years, but there are shorter and longer ones depending on circumstances.
I think SYDNEY is past the 7 now, not the 3. The start of the boom happened around 1997/8, not post gfc 2009