Wow, this winter pattern setup is fascinating! The way the ridging over Canada creates cold air intrusions into the United States has me wondering just how intense the season will get! Looking forward to more updates on this pattern! Keep up the great work! #winterweather #moresnow #snowstorms
Thank you for the forecast and explaining about the Greenland Blocking high! Can you say a bit about why the European model and the GFS differ, do they have different data or just different assumptions
Great question - The reason the two models differ in their solution to the Greenland Blocking High, Snow Depth forecast and general weather trends lie in their strengths and weakenesses. We at The Weather Farm use both of these in tandem to prepare our videos and forecasts. The GFS is a model that was developed by the National Weather Service in the United States. It is widely available and free to most users. The ECMWF or the "Euro" as it is also called was developed by a group of European nations. Its most highly detailed model data is not widely available to most users. The GFS is generally better in the short term whereas the Euro is better in the long-term. This is because the Euro uses an "ensemble" method and consists of about 51 members in its model and has a higher data resolution of about 10 horizontal kilometers. As far as their assumptions, the data output is only as good as the inputs. The GFS may pick up quicker on newer observations or data points whereas the Euro may see the newer observations or deviations from prior model runs as being blurred by the other members of the ensembles. Both models use the same surface observations, weather balloon observations of conditions at various heights, etc to develop the starting point and applies mathematical formulae to how they will develop from there. The model update times of 00Z, 06Z, 12Z, and 18Z (UTC) update the starting points of each model run and results are typically available 3-4 hours after the model run. Hope to see you back at the Farm soon!
Thank you to all veterans who have served and continue to serve!
Thanks for the video! Great update.
Much appreciated!
Wow, this winter pattern setup is fascinating! The way the ridging over Canada creates cold air intrusions into the United States has me wondering just how intense the season will get! Looking forward to more updates on this pattern! Keep up the great work! #winterweather #moresnow #snowstorms
It’s certainly a dynamic pattern, and I’ll be keeping a close eye on it!
Thank you for the forecast and explaining about the Greenland Blocking high! Can you say a bit about why the European model and the GFS differ, do they have different data or just different assumptions
Great question - The reason the two models differ in their solution to the Greenland Blocking High, Snow Depth forecast and general weather trends lie in their strengths and weakenesses. We at The Weather Farm use both of these in tandem to prepare our videos and forecasts.
The GFS is a model that was developed by the National Weather Service in the United States. It is widely available and free to most users. The ECMWF or the "Euro" as it is also called was developed by a group of European nations. Its most highly detailed model data is not widely available to most users.
The GFS is generally better in the short term whereas the Euro is better in the long-term. This is because the Euro uses an "ensemble" method and consists of about 51 members in its model and has a higher data resolution of about 10 horizontal kilometers.
As far as their assumptions, the data output is only as good as the inputs. The GFS may pick up quicker on newer observations or data points whereas the Euro may see the newer observations or deviations from prior model runs as being blurred by the other members of the ensembles. Both models use the same surface observations, weather balloon observations of conditions at various heights, etc to develop the starting point and applies mathematical formulae to how they will develop from there. The model update times of 00Z, 06Z, 12Z, and 18Z (UTC) update the starting points of each model run and results are typically available 3-4 hours after the model run.
Hope to see you back at the Farm soon!
Thank you. Makes sense with the ensemble methods. Looking forward to learning how it will play out…
It has been dry all this summer ! Dan the ceator says 4,000 watch hours is easy ! New subscriber .
Thanks for the support!
A lot of snow in New Mexico , Dan says that 4,000 watch hours is easy . New subscriber .
Especially in those mountain passes in SE Colo and NE New Mexico! I know we will get there! Good luck in your journey!
70 inches of snow on the New Mexico border ! 4,000 watch hours is easy according to Dan ! new subscriber .
Welcome to the channel! I'll keep you updated on what's going on with the pattern! Thanks for subscribing!