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Thanks for checking in! I am trying to do my part and am excited for snow!

Thanks for watching - let's hope that cold air makes the snow a little more fluffy!

We are keeping a close eye on the storm's track! The Euro model still puts a target along I-70 for the greatest likelihood for significant snow. There are some other tweaks we are watching in the overall setup that we will have to monitor! Happy New Year!

Thanks for watching! My other full-time job has taken me near Milwaukee a few times. We also have gone with our scout troop up to Rhinelander for summer camp. Will keep an eye out of anything in the Milwaukee-Sheboygan area! Happy New Year!

Thanks for checking in and Happy New Year! We are watching to see how far south the cold air will go after the 10th. Could provide some interesting weather for Texas that next weekend but it is still 10+ days out, so something to watch!

Glad it was helpful! Thank you for checking in and Happy New Year!

It is definitely going to be a close call! There are a lot of variables at play. Happy New Year and thanks for stopping by!

@@TheWeatherFarm Thanks, and good luck building your channel. You are doing great!

Thanks for checking in Richard! I saw a graphic the other day about the record breaking length of time between measurable snows for Lincoln. Happy New Year!

Thanks for checking in! Keep an eye on those forecasts. This forecast will continue to be refined as we get towards the weekend!

Thanks for checking out the channel and thanks for the referrals! I'm glad you like the presentation style - as it is the type of weather that I have wanted to do for a long time.

Thanks for watching! Hope you found it informative!

I'm glad you've found the channel! Hope your snow is a good one!

Thanks for watching! I’ll try to bring you the most accurate information possible so you are not too cold!

@@TheWeatherFarm Happy New Year to you and your family. 🎉

@@tcarroll3954 thank you for stopping by! We will be back to our regular schedule soon!

Hope you have good weather! The Rockies should see some decent snow in that timeframe!

You are very welcome - we are always here to help you make informed decisions about your weather!

I’m glad you found the hodograph helpful! Keep watching to see what changes!

Different types of weather creates different types of shear. Jet streams create vertical shear in the atmosphere and mid-latitude storms (like we see in the US) create both vertical and horizontal shear. However the outflow boundary of an intense thunderstorm creates a horizontal shear So different phenomena create different types of shear.

It’s something we will continue to monitor closely. The thing to remember is at this distance to not get so focused on the specific day a model says it will happen, but what is the general time period. We are still looking somewhere around the 7th through the 10th, plus or minus a couple of days.

@@TheWeatherFarm Any longer range signs of a pattern shift for arctic air in the northwest? I'm in northwest Oregon, plenty of snow for the Cascades, but the lowlands have been consistently mild be it rainy or dry. I am tired of resilient ridge after ridge and surprised that it is so mild in my region given that we are in a weak la nina. Isn't la nina normally give the northwest better than normal chances for arctic air and snow? Other forecasters have told me that the mjo is a key factor, but what else is going on? I don't understand why winter is acting more 'el nino' like right now even though we are in a weak la nina.

It's still a little too warm for most of the country, but we'll keep you in the loop.

Thanks for your update today. Happy to see what's going on in Alaska. A blessed Christmas to you and your family! 🌲

Same to you! I have a feeling we might be checking in on Alaska a few more times to see the extent of that cold air. -53F is nothing to sneeze at!

@@TheWeatherFarm I remember a Christmad Eve in the '80s when the wind chill was -80°. It was bitter!

Thanks for checking in. Looks like you are outside of the heavy rains that are more along the coasts this week. But 1-2" of rain could be in the forecast! Washington is one state I have not been to yet.

Yeah we had just a couple of tenths here in central Indiana. Now it is back to warmth for the end of the year!

Well to be honest - an ensemble model or average over several days helps to smooth out the outliers that may appear one day of a week or in one particular model run. Think of it as if you are shooting archery. If the target is 10m away and you are off just a little you probably are going to be close enough to the target. But that same amount of error at a target 100m away, the precision or accuracy is going to be a lot less. Same thing with weather models. Anything that looks three weeks out should be for directional or trend analysis at best. Thanks for the question!

@@TheWeatherFarm thank you for the explanations and the intuitive imagery illustrating the growing error.

Appreciate you noticing! 😊 Sharp snow gradients are always fascinating to track with these clipper systems. Glad to see The Weather Farm keeping you ahead of the curve-thanks for tuning in and for the kind shoutout!

Glad you liked it. I was scrolling through some maps and remembered that one I had done during hurricane season and I thought it would be helpful to visualize the process. Atmospheric rivers are fascinating weather events, and they can certainly impact travel during the holidays!

Yeah, but what keeps surprising me is that the clipper continues to keep its strength as it moves across the Northern Plains into the Ohio Valley. Got to love computer models! They have struggled with this storm!

Thanks, Christopher Hale. I'm located in central Indiana, but I have family in southern Alaska, north of Los Angeles, the southeastern corner of Colorado, and in the middle of New Hampshire. They're spread out from west to east! ❤

We will try to get some mentions of Alaska in a future video. I was hoping to include it in this video but that bomb cyclone possibility kind of stole my attention.

Ya have to go with the most urgent weather! 😂

Fun fact - almost 5% of our viewership comes from Canada! I could talk about the weather of the province of Nunavut for a long time!

We are always looking for great locations to highlight. Thanks for the suggestion! I remember during my graduate program at Penn State that it was an area of focus for one of my classes.

You and me both! Glad you were safe this past weekend. It is why we felt the need to talk about why we might see the ice based on what we were seeing in the skew-T diagrams. As far as this weeks snow - we will likely see a clipper system diving across the Dakotas into Iowa - it will slow down on Thursday and start to fall apart on Friday. Early snowfall amounts are hard to say this far out - but it is definitely something to monitor.

Thanks for stopping by! Hope your week goes well.

I would agree - it was very dry here in Central Indiana for most of late summer into the fall. It was great to be able to get the crops out of the fields on time, but we definitely could have used some more rain! How were the yields in your part of the country?

Great questions - Pressure is influenced by temperature, altitude, air movement and humidity. Warm air tends to rise leading to lower pressures at the surface and cold air tends to sink, causes higher pressure at the surface. Altitude impacts it because the higher you go in elevation, the less total air above that is pushing down creating pressure. In the video, I tried to emphasize the precipitation on the West Coast as a function of the atmospheric rivers hitting the West Coast. The Pacific Ocean provides abundant moisture, which is transported inland by strong winds and lifted into the atmosphere by mountain ranges, creating heavy rain and snow. Hope this helps!

I am glad you find it helpful! We are always happy to share our passion for weather! We will continue to be a place that informs and teaches.

Yes I can! An Atmospheric River (AR) is a concentrated plume of moisture being transported from tropical or sub-tropical environments into the higher latitudes. As this water vapor is transported over cooler areas, it must release the precipitation as cooler air can not hold as much moisture as warmer air. This is why we see significant amounts of precipitation with ARs. A common one is the moisture stream from areas near Hawai'i to the West Coast of the United States and British Columbia in Canada.

It's a lot of fun talking weather! Hopefully we can get a little snow maybe? Have a great day as well!

Glad you found it helpful!

Snow might be in the forecast for the Ohio Valley sometime next week. Stay tuned. The models are changing each and every day!

I agree - this is not what we need.

Thank you for watching!

You bet! Have a great day!

Thanks for stopping by! We have seen the same in the Midwest. We finally got above seasonal norms yesterday here… we will have a couple warm days and then a jab of colder air for a couple of days and then back to warm. It is how we see the pattern over the next 8-14 days.

Hopefully the pattern will change for Ohio. South Central and Southeast Ohio has been very dry the last three months. Great communities in that part of the state!

@TheWeatherFarm believe me I know we have been extreme drought corn and soybeans came up in a farmer's field this year and died

Arctic Oscillation refers to the comparison of the atmospheric pressure in the Arctic (above the Arctic Circle) and the middle-latitudes (where the United States is). The "oscillation" between higher than normal pressures and lower than normal pressures between the two areas helps us forecast potential stormier patterns and arctic air outbreaks especially in winter.

Thanks for checking in at The Weather Farm. My personal belief is I need one really good snowstorm each year, and I need a few nights below zero for the actual temperature each winter and I am good. Hope you have a great weekend!

Thanks for the question - I am talking about snow pack as in snow depth. How much snow is on the ground at observation time (usually 7am local). Because we have seen temperatures approaching 15 and 20 degrees above normal across Southern Alberta and Saskatchewan, we have been eroding the snow pack on the ground.

Thank you for your kind words! We appreciate all of our feedback and we only do this because we love talking about the weather. Have a great weekend!

There are a lot of teleconnections present in our atmosphere. Another one we watch (and haven't talked about here) is the Madden-Julian Oscillation and its eight phases. It is one of the sources we also consult as we look out past two or three weeks.

@@TheWeatherFarm So the December winter is cancelled for good right?