The Atlantic basin looks like it's classic positive phase of the AMO meaning the ring or horseshoe shape of warm anomalies and a cool patch in the subtropics along with a warm Gulf and Caribbean. Should that persist well into 2025 it could all come down to ENSO on whether it's another hectic season for the US or not that bad like we saw in 2023. However, it would be an active season though regardless of ENSO with those warm waters extending from the Gulf and Caribbean across the deep tropics/MDR up north along the coasts of Africa and Europe and back west towards Greenland and Canada along with the cool subtropics.
I feel like that the models have been off on the timing of La Nina and that we're not even there yet. Therefore, some adjustments will be made as well as I think we could be heading for an El Nino next year according to Eric Webb. Only possible though.
I highly suggest, if you haven't already, following Storm2k (Mark actually uses this web forum) as they already have some pretty intriguing discussions on what the 2025 hurricane season may bring. One interesting thing people seem to be talking about there is that odds of an El Nino happening next year are somewhat not likely considering we've never really had recorded traditional El Ninos separated by merely 2 years.
@ That’s true according to history, but as we know there have been examples already in terms of the weather where history has been defied. One example is when tropical cyclones formed in the deep tropics of the Atlantic in June this year and last year which is something that rarely happens, but means it’s happened before. That said, although history tells us that El Niño in normal standards is unlikely by next year it’s still possible as anything rare can actually in fact happen. It brings to the fact that according to Eric Webb on X he’s discussed before in recent months about the possibility of El Niño returning in 2025 due to off-equatorial WWBs that have plagued the development of La Niña this year. Therefore, given the failure for La Niña to take hold for an extended period of time this year I wouldn’t be surprised or even shocked that El Niño may return next year. Not saying it’s a guarantee but certainly possible given how ENSO has fared so far late this year.
Possibly next year won't be as hectic for the US regardless of the level of tropical activity that we may see which is of course depending on how warm the Atlantic remains. Though, how active next year will be in the US will depend on the evolution of ENSO heading into 2025.
Only a matter of time before the next major hurricane may make landfall on the US east coast. Maybe next year? Probably depends on ENSO and other factors.
Let me put it This Way eventually the Atlantic will cool down put the Gulf of Mexico will always stay warm mainly because the Gulf of Mexico isn't really all that deep compared to the rest of the Atlantic, and because the Waters of the Gulf of Mexico aren't all that deep it's a lot easier for the Gulf of Mexico to keep the temperatures very hot and and ready for strengthening And this is why you do not live on the Gulf of Mexico look at you Houston
![Lp. Сердце Вселенной #60 РОЖДЕНИЕ ЛОЛОЛОШКИ [Финал] • Майнкрафт](http://i.ytimg.com/vi/YoR0pAV9FVQ/mqdefault.jpg)
2022 with a La Nina was a weird Atlantic hurricane season as well that fell well short of expectations. So, the last three have been off.
The Atlantic basin looks like it's classic positive phase of the AMO meaning the ring or horseshoe shape of warm anomalies and a cool patch in the subtropics along with a warm Gulf and Caribbean. Should that persist well into 2025 it could all come down to ENSO on whether it's another hectic season for the US or not that bad like we saw in 2023. However, it would be an active season though regardless of ENSO with those warm waters extending from the Gulf and Caribbean across the deep tropics/MDR up north along the coasts of Africa and Europe and back west towards Greenland and Canada along with the cool subtropics.
Definitely a crazy season and fairly hyperactive but not too crazy
I feel like that the models have been off on the timing of La Nina and that we're not even there yet. Therefore, some adjustments will be made as well as I think we could be heading for an El Nino next year according to Eric Webb. Only possible though.
I highly suggest, if you haven't already, following Storm2k (Mark actually uses this web forum) as they already have some pretty intriguing discussions on what the 2025 hurricane season may bring. One interesting thing people seem to be talking about there is that odds of an El Nino happening next year are somewhat not likely considering we've never really had recorded traditional El Ninos separated by merely 2 years.
@ That’s true according to history, but as we know there have been examples already in terms of the weather where history has been defied. One example is when tropical cyclones formed in the deep tropics of the Atlantic in June this year and last year which is something that rarely happens, but means it’s happened before. That said, although history tells us that El Niño in normal standards is unlikely by next year it’s still possible as anything rare can actually in fact happen. It brings to the fact that according to Eric Webb on X he’s discussed before in recent months about the possibility of El Niño returning in 2025 due to off-equatorial WWBs that have plagued the development of La Niña this year. Therefore, given the failure for La Niña to take hold for an extended period of time this year I wouldn’t be surprised or even shocked that El Niño may return next year. Not saying it’s a guarantee but certainly possible given how ENSO has fared so far late this year.
Possibly next year won't be as hectic for the US regardless of the level of tropical activity that we may see which is of course depending on how warm the Atlantic remains. Though, how active next year will be in the US will depend on the evolution of ENSO heading into 2025.
Bless
do you have a bluesky account I can follow? I no longer use "the other one".
Only a matter of time before the next major hurricane may make landfall on the US east coast. Maybe next year? Probably depends on ENSO and other factors.
@10:55, Of course. *EternalEta*
Blue sky's micco FL Indian river no chemtrail or con...But two days ago woke up a lot a whole day...Seems odd none on a cold day... bless
Thx Mark
The last time a major hurricane hit the east coast was Hurricane Fran in 1996, although Isabel of 2003 and Florence of 2018 came close
I believe it was Jeanne in 2004 which was 8 years later. We still haven't seen one ever since, crazy statistic.
@@aaronlowe620 Especially near the Carolinas
We've had Matthew, Florence and Dorian
@@cordelianorris6337 Talking about major hurricane direct landfall
This list is not complete without mentioning Florence
Let me put it This Way eventually the Atlantic will cool down put the Gulf of Mexico will always stay warm mainly because the Gulf of Mexico isn't really all that deep compared to the rest of the Atlantic, and because the Waters of the Gulf of Mexico aren't all that deep it's a lot easier for the Gulf of Mexico to keep the temperatures very hot and and ready for strengthening
And this is why you do not live on the Gulf of Mexico look at you Houston