How Tesla's Robot Learns is Crazy.
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- Опубліковано 12 вер 2024
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Tesla's Optimus Robot was unveiled in 2021. Since then, the company has made a ton of strides in its development, from getting it to walk, to having it do simple things like picking up objects and sorting them. However, the method which Tesla uses to have the bot learn is the real game-changer in this technology, and in this video, I cover why this is such a big deal.
I worked at Tesla starting in July of 2017 as an Operations Analyst out of the Bethlehem, PA distribution center facility and left as a Program Manager based out of Austin, TX as of September 2021. I spent most of my time in the distribution and supply chain organizations.
Before Tesla, I was a Director of Business Intelligence and Pricing at the largest Pet Food & Supply distributor in the US, Phillips Pet Food & Supplies based out of Easton, PA. My wife and I also owned a small business in Bethlehem, PA between 2016 and 2019.
I have been a shareholder of Tesla since 2012 and currently own Tesla stock.
My thoughts are my own and are not representative of everyone who currently works, or has worked at Tesla.
If you like this content I would greatly appreciate your likes and shares!
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Well, humans WERE coding, but only by just looking at videos and flagging them as either "correct driving" or "bad driving". Which seriously simplifies coding. lol But just putting all videos into the system is not enough.
You also have to factor in the fact that no human animal actually works the entire 8 hours they work per day. Much labor jobs have a LOT of down time. If you are waiting on a concrete truck, you still pay them. But for a bot, they are paid for. Averaging in all the jobs, maybe people do actual work about 65% of the day. The bot won't cost you for the down time, and if you can download non-maid services software to be a window washer, they can do that instead. So more value for your hourly wage, yet you won't pay for an hourly wage once you buy the bot the first year. It's a no brainer.
The robots will have to be taxed to pay for supporting displaces workers
@@ken-mb5cp gotta make a law first. Then do that.
dik
To see this robot in health care would be a game changer for so many countries.
Pharmacists will be one of the first to go IMO. LLM plus a teslabot could do it I reckon.
@@michaelgore-hickman2959 One would think so but I’ve seen pill dispensers in one pharmacy of all the ones I’ve been in. A pill dispenser machine should be a no-brainer in the industry but not only do few pharmacies have one, the only one that did only uses it for certain medications-probably the ones where large numbers of that same pill are counted for each dispensing and are pretty common meds, thereby saving the most time counting for both the technicians and the checking pharmacist. If pill dispensing machines are so little used, a robot with fingers will probably not be implemented in the near term.
It’s like electronic signage in retail stores. It has been around for a while but it is still not very common in the industry. With all the work/hours it takes to put up sale tags and price changes on a regular basis one would think that store would be all over the tech but not so much.
Very good point! Imagine the relief in hospitals having these things around. I could see hundreds of them in a single hospital.
Yes, especially in infectious disease quarter
that is a great point, have a wooden spoon@@jasontran8095
The "fixing its mistake part" is massively important for a factory robot.
There's a subtle detail everyone missed. When the robot corrected the orientation of the fallen blue block. It pulled in the unused fingers, while only the pointing finger and thumb were straight. That shows the tactile abilities of the robot.
No . that showed that the motion was copied from a human. In a human hand those fingers are connected by tendons and they tend to work together. From a purely mechanical view they shouldn’t have moved. Very interesting nonetheless. From a strictly efficiency point a view lots of unnecessary movement will be copied😅
there's also the possibility that there is only 1 actuator pulling all the finger tendons at once to save on cost and complexity
That’s a very cool movement as if it wants to avoid unwanted contact with trailing digits, truly a human trait , 👍
Can it give a handy?
I actually noticed that. I noticed how natural the hand/finger movement was.
However, I hope Tesla releases the next Optimus update video in real time footage and not speeded up.
The best will be buy in pairs because if one robot breaks down the other bot will fix the bot that is broken down, order parts, take bot apart , solve computer issues. A bot buddy system.
effen brilliant ! ;-)
Once this robot is able to do things, even 30% reliably and join people in their homes for a reasonable price, it is going to replace countless other appliances and things that you don't need. This is crazy stuff. This is literally going to completely change the world.
Wow, Farzad this video!!!;) The smoothness, the seamless transitions, the editing, "the visual dazzle," this is a major step up, KUDOS!!!;)
And love that you keep experimenting and relentlessly improving, it's almost like your time at Tesla taught you a thing or two haha!!!;)
I think it’s to improve workflow for clipping where it’s already “exciting” for short form content creation.
Personally, I feel it’s a bit extra at least with the swooshes and some of the sound effects as I typically only listen while doing something else. It isn’t a huge value add and if additional time editing is spent I don’t think it’s worth it. Watching it is probably more entertaining.
Appreciate all your work and effort Farzad! Love the videos.
@@bodyweightbob8669 i agree the sound effects are in the way but the visual effects do help to keep it interesting
Great input as well thank you!@@bodyweightbob8669
Great input as well thank you!@@t3hpwninat0r
This is incredible. That means to train the robot you only need to show it what to do, just like a real human. You wouldn't need programmers to code it to do tasks. You could show it videos of people cleaning toilets and it could learn it like that. Code free training. Incredible. this means anyone could train it , even if you dont know how to code.
What if you don't know how to clean a toilet?
Robots will give us an item that is irreplaceable TIME to do other things. Hopefully not sitting around doing nothing but paying it forward.
Robots will cause massive worker displacement. Robots will be more efficient and cheaper than humans. Robots or AI have already doing the creative writing in Hollywood l, doing coding, manufacturing, farming and aerospace. There is very little that humans can do better than a Robot.
Depending on the job, the bot could stay plugged in full time. 3 shifts.
I feel bad for all the low - mid income people who will lose their job to a robot.
I hope when the Tesla bot comes out something is in place to help those folks out
Gotta buy stocks NOW!
or else I will be on universal welfare for the rest of your life…
Thanks Farzad, it's obvious how much time and energy you put into these. Keep up the great work.
I noticed the same move, but I think you missed something that is a bigger deal than it simply knowing the correct orientation of the block, and even more human, which is the hesitation when noticing the mistake, reassessing and correcting. It is the hesitation & pause before correcting the orientation that is truly impressive and human-like. It tells us that the end-to-end neural network is continuously assessing progress toward a goal and updating it's plans on the fly (by plans I mean the intended tiny incremental movements, what for humans would be individual twitches of muscle-fibers). Here is started moving the hand back for the next block, assuming but not knowing that the block it put down was in the correct orientation. As the hand got out of the way of its vision, it saw the block was tipped on its side, triggering that moment of hesitation, caught between continuing the current motion to pick up another block vs. fixing the block near its hand. It was more efficient to fix the block immediately, but we can see how it took that moment's hesitation to decide.
This bodes extremely well for the end-to-end NN of FSD version 12.
It also shows that it understands the concept of its own limbs occluding its vision. It pulled the hand back for a better view and then acted. To me that is seriously impressive
Excellent video, as usual! Thank you!
WOW … Farzad you have such a keen eye!!! Indeed I missed this tiny detail … even though they slowed down the video and zoomed up on it … it just didn’t register … Thankyou for pointing it out
I am hoping that in 20 years when my body is failing I can pay to be downloaded into Optimus…
It will not be you, just a copy...
Instead of wheelchairs and mobility scooters for the elderly, thay can soon have exoskeletons.
I thought of a window cleaning machine. An absolute nightmare if you don't actually use a humanoid robot to do it.
yes I also replayed that part of the video soooo many times! 🎉
It must understand consequences or something. Amazing!
I actually feel sorry for the bears…. This is revolutionary. Seems so obvious to me. What’s what for ME to understand is how they don’t see it too.
I just realized that Tesla has an interior camera watching the drivers. FSD could use it to see what the driver focus his attention on.
That's a big hint for what the FSD should focuus its attention on.
Furthermore, what and when the driver focus on something tells us if it's a good driver or not.
Maybe especially the drivers attention on new things, and if it distracts him from old still important things.
Interesting that you mentioned “maid” work. I’ve noticed that most jobs have a lot of tasks and the tasks that are hardest to automate involve cleaning things. “Take everything out of the shelves, remove the heavy shelves that fit in the unit in a rather finicky manner, clean the shelves and put everything back the way it was.” You are really going to need to re-engineer everything from shelves to machines and tools these bots are supposed to use.
I think that a lot of the jobs that are hard and dirty and boring will be the last to be automated because while humans may not want to do them they are easier for humans to do so they are cheaper to pay humans to do them than to automate them. And separating the easily automated tasks from the difficult to automate ones is not always a simple thing. A robot may be able to put candy bars on a display but over a few days when customers knock the bars behind the back of the shelves and someone needs to move the shelving to get them out, clean the dust off them and check the tiny expiration date before putting them back or writing them off… that will be a human on their knees doing that.
I disagree with the first paragraph, but the second paragraph makes a valid point. Cleaning things is an easy task training to do it, training makes you more efficent , and therefor faster. The robot will have a harder time putting an engine together, than cleaning a shelf. An even harder time giving a haircut.
Your not getting the full picture for staters the bot can read bar codes, it will also have a full inventory of everything that it is responsible for, it’s also possible to have one finger to have a vacuum sucker for one finger recovery of hard to pick up items, these bot will manipulation that’s not possible for us to do, don’t forget when AGI brains are loaded into these bots they will be able hold a conversation with humans, as a foot note never play any form of gambling game at break time when they charge up, 🤪
I’m extremely bullish on Optimus. What will really impress me and will let me know that they are really close to AGI is when the bot is ambidextrous and make consistent corrective actions with multitasks.
I agree, but I’m tired of home examples like folding clothes… I would look for examples of what Elon said: dangerous, repetitive or boring JOBS. These jobs people quit often and limit companies from growing. I see the people at these jobs becoming bot supervisors that teach bots and help grow the company.
Tesla could easily train the robots in their own factories before selling them to the public.
which is where they will start of course, increasing automation is a mantra of elons, this next step of course!!
@@brendenharris8858meant to say ...will easily train .. he has said he's doing it
Elon has said that he plans on utilizing the first prototypes of the Tesla bot to perform simple mundane tasks inside of Tesla factories. He believes that this hands on training will start in 2024. I think that by 2027 other business will be able to buy them for factory work and by 2030 they will become commercially available for anyone to purchase.
A man with a couple of 'Axes' 🎸 and flamethrower on the wall is a man of integrity!
Every one here is taking technology and the smoothness of the video and I'm here thinking I want that t-shirt. 😂 🤣
that will never happen. think if we was able to replace all politician. what an hornet, fast working robot, that didn't run on bribes. LOL
I’m less worried about loss of jobs, I would worry more about what this robot could do in, let’s say, military operations. It sounds like science fiction, but being controlled by the wrong people there might be some serious damage.🤔 Apart from that I’m a big fan.
1st rule of robotics. NEVER hand a robot a gun.
Human brain? Not even close to a bee brain. Bees can accomplish vastly more complex tasks and easily negotiate complex 3D environments with planning, learning, and emotion using less than 0.02 watts
But aren't bees preprogramed in their DNA to make such complex movements? Or do you claim they are learning them from other bees?
@@ludpisapia9407 No. The fastest supercomputers cant even program a car to navigate on a 2D plane let alone live an entire daily life of a bee. Each bee has it's own perspective on the world and will follow it's desires the way you do. Like the bee, you were also programmed with certain desires and you will pursue those like a bee using the abilities that seem unique to you but, like the bee, are actually entirely within the scope of traits attributable to the species. Just like all bees look the same to you, all humans look the same to other animals.
Agree! Based on the time of day, and just hearing certain sounds my activity is making, my dog knows exactly what will happen next and reacts acordingly. That is reasoning on his part. I don't claim he has a human brain. I do say he is a smart dog.
@@davidwill1320 Yes ... the main difference between humans and any other emotional animal is available tools and degree of abstraction not necessarily reasoning or even faith, hope, and love. Our abstract perception is highly developed which allows complex language, money, time, and other imaginary things and to apply our animal emotions and to share in such delusions as if they were real. They are certainly real to believers.
1) There is no reason a bot will take time to charge. Battery swapping will be able to keep it working continuously.
2) At scale, these bots can be manufactured for $5K-$10K each if they use distributed computing rather all on-board chips. Replacing all 650 skeletal muscles to completely mimic human movement might require that many servos or solenoids but most would cost
5:35 I subscribed cos this video seems to actually have substance (and you are not a bot) unlike so many science channels that have sensational presentation but no real meat on the bone.
Excellent thought. How about for even smaller community plots that the average person can’t physically handle? Having one for household chores makes little sense.
Great stuff Farzad!! Your younger members may not have seen the warning from the ROBOT that I was familiar in my youth!! Try this one on ya!! "DANGER WILL ROBINSON, DANGER"!! Greetings from Canada!! GIDDYUP!!
AS LONG as Gordon Johnson isn't the donor!
No point downgrading!
Nicely done. Your content has become excellent; more importantly, your delivery has immensely improved. Fewer or no distractions, focused, concise. Congratulations and best wishes for continued success.
I can see these bots in so many places but i think recycling factories can be a good start
In 1907 cars were a luxury novelty. In1909, cars ruled the road & horses were already gettting outlawed.
But with those flat rigid feet it's impossible to walk like humans. Standing on the tip of our feet it's essential.
The correct way of calculating savings is by dividing the cost of the robot by the number of years the robot can run before needing replacement. Then add in repairs near the 2nd half of the robots operational life. Then take the cost of a worker/workers that would make up that same amount of work during that time and you will see that your savings are massive with the robot.
can the bot see colour ? It looks like it , but the green blocks are a different shape
It would be orders of magnitude easier to sort the shapes by colour than by their shape.
Yes they use full color cameras. They show a clip from the bot’s perspective. The AI uses all photon data hitting the cameras, even beyond what is usually presented to humans in a video feed
How long until Optimus can automatically recharge at any of his workstations, either through his feet or wirelessly?
He can work three shifts with time down only for maintenance or repair.
some jobs it will be able to work 24/7 if it stands on a charging pad, or at least 20+hours if it need to be cooled.
Enormous jump... Fortunately Wall Street haven't realised this yet... despite many UA-camrs spelling this out really clearly.
Well done
My only constructive comment is the calculation rlof savings of the robot replacing the maid is that there isn't 16 hours worth of work to do everyday year-around. The robot would be sitting idle for a lot of that time. Unless you buy and then rent it to others in close proximity like sharing in your neighborhood. Imo.😮
Based on the assumption that robotaxi is achieved, then the bot could be ferried around to different work locations as needed
Great video.
Don't forget there is the charging cost for the bots
not just the one off purchase price.
The editing is next level, loving it
If I want Optimus to vaccine my floor, will I have to show it, or will Optimus be able to learn from what other Optimus learned in other houses?
In addition to learning by watching, I'm wondering if there would also be language recognition where, if the bot was doing a learned task but needed some kind of fine tuning, it could be corrected or "taught" by simply telling it what needs to be modified, (e.g.: "No, don't put it on the table, put it on the floor") just as you would do with instructing a person.
We've seen the impact described here happen already but at more fundamental need hierarchy. Industrialization in agriculture, shelter, clothing, moved mass amounts of people from jobs in those areas to new jobs that would not otherwise be justifiable given the priority of basic needs. We will move further down the hierarchy of needs scale to create jobs that get further and further away from the fundamentals. Is there an end to that hierarchy after automation has taken care of all the fundamentals? That might be the interesting debate.
It still seems to me to be incredibly useful for home care which means it can be leased out rather than be bought. I doubt if a regular family will pay $20-25,000 for its own bot to work around the house for an hour or two a day.
First thing that comes to mind is farmers and their help.
Two ideas: either jobs we never imagined will materialize for humans as they have with all prior automation or the robot labor will be harnessed (taxed) to provide a universal basic income (UBI).
Safety first. What happens when you show it shouting someone.
Just wait until Tesla figures out how to train Optimus without having it be in the same viewpoint as the person training it. I´m pretty sure now they have a person with a camera on it´s head sorting the blocks (as seen in the previous videos from Tesla) and Optimus learns from this data since its cameras are in the same spot as the persons headset looking down on the blocks. The next big leap would be to have Optimus standing opposite of the person, or maybe a couple of feet away and observe how a task should be done and the figure out on its own how to do the task, just like humans do.
Can it learn by watching someone shovel? Or does it need the shoveler to wear a cap with cams in the same pos’n as the bot?? Huge difference.
I'm all in Tesla stock but can't see FSD happening before 2026. People getting excited over short 15 minute trips with 1 or less interventions need to realize regulators can't approve FSD until it's able to go millions of mins w/out interventions. Therell be millions of Teslas on the roads simultaneously. With just one error per million mins driven, that's several cars failing every minute. I see TeslaBots being useful before FSD is approved considering a Bot failing won't lead to fatalities.
Robocop???
You have forgten the most important question.... why did the bof make a mistake in the first place? Where did it learn the mistake?
this is a bit scary..AI is writing its own code? its going to make its own language that humans wont be able to use..then how do we control it?
We dont.
This all sounds very good ---- until the bots shut the company down and demand a 40 percent raise and a 32 hour work week.
what you talkin bout...where giving them somthing better then a human brain
Before people go to the moon and Mars, get bots to build stuff out there first. Then humans can go there in luxury. Once it's well established it could cost nearly nothing (eventually) once the bots learn to build themselves etc.
I can already picture it they're going to have all their employees wear those suits with cameras or maybe just the cameras at 9:25 for a couple of days to collect training data lol
Great presentation 👍🏼👍🏼👍🏼
Accessible to noobs and smart folks
The progress is stunning and ai might even tell them how it needs to be designed . But I think 10 years until daily impact and 50k price ... will be 250k for a few years..or not sold to public for a few years too.
Tesla costs for a robot will be under $20k next year. They can lease them out at $5/h and make $4/h in profit. They will be doing real work in Tesla factories next year. This is coming much faster than most people can believe.
How much compute would it take to teach it to pilot a ship? Tesla could sell modules for applications.
It’s not just blue-collar jobs that are at risk; white-collar positions, including those reliant on creativity, are also facing potential displacement. It’s crucial to recognize that creativity is a multifaceted process, and consciousness likely emerges from the intricate interplay of countless neurons communicating with each other. This raises the intriguing possibility that robots, with advanced neural networks, might be considered conscious to some extent. The looming question is, as this technological shift results in widespread unemployment, what implications will it have for people’s purchasing power, and who will be able to sustain the demand for goods and services?
There is some odd shifting of the blocks... was the video edited? It is sped up but does that explain it? Are the blocks catching on the fingers?
The move "Saturn 5" with Farah Faucett was based on that.
My guess is that no one will own a bot out right. There's no way they're selling this bot without a subscription fee.
Yeah I think that could be a possibility. It’s recurring revenue for the business.
"But Tesla, based on revenue, is just a car company..." he-he.............
What I want to see is the ability of regular people to buy robots, both physical and virtual, to be employed in a business where, after any maintenance or overhead, they receive an income from a portfolio of robots.
NO!😮
Im as impressed and thrilled as anyone to see this level of progress. What happens when these are out in the wild and people begin to feed it videos of war, violence, guns etc? Theres zero doubt some entity out there out there will attempt to use these for security detail or worse.
Of course the military will be a huge buyer and trainer of these bots in order to produce military bots.
Wow great video editing on this one!
What about the cost of software subscription
Ooh, hotels are gonna get cheap. That’s exciting. We’re going places.
Btw FSD and Bot I think the competition will be able to catch up faster to the Bot. The data advantage with FSD is massive but with the Bot not so much. Tesla's manufacturing advantage will lead to a huge 1st mover advantage. But it feels like other companies will be able to at least compete... IMO it will come down to the eco system. Just like Apple.
Very nice video Farzad, Like must folks, I am already in line to purchase Optimus in the near future to be used as a home assistant and butler.
The most interesting thing robots will be able to do is build more robots!
Think about the potential market for skills packages for the bots. Think the equivalent of a smartphone App Store where bot owners can purchase the skill for their bot to do a new task, or do it better.
Want to have a fantastic chef in your home? Get that package, trained by the best. Then the bot can go into the yard and do the garden.
In business, train your bot to do a task efficiently and then sell that capability to other business owners under licence.
The opportunity is mind blowing.
I think the bot will be sub $40,000 but also have a $699 monthly license fee. This is $84,000 over 10 years.
Perhaps they have a brains exchange program between Optimus and Neuralink with whatever brain stuff is excavated when doing an implant. Don't take video titles too literally I guess.
You use maid as one of your examples. You are probably not familiar with movie Maid Droid 😂
I’m holding off mowing my lawn til the robots come. HOA can’t argue with that 😜
Won't have time to see those Bots on Earth, Elon is going to save 'em for the Mars mission.
Awesome Breakdown 🔥🔥
I see decision making moment at the :07 mark of your video.
The hardware part is a lot harder to figure out though. There isn't any artificial robot limbs that are as versatile as humans that can fit in a small frame.
What behavior patterns will be given to the bots or how will the deter from negative behavior patterns seen on TV or UA-cam. Don’t want them throwing things and grabbing knives
The robots are here.
The bots may join UAW😂
Excellent. Very exciting
Just imagine a Tesla delivery van using FSD. It's loaded at the warehouse by Optimus bots. It stops on your street and opens. A door opens on the side and a ramp lowers. Maybe 1-3 bots walk down the ramp carrying packages. They deliver the packages to the houses on the block, returning to the van for additional packages. The van moves itself down the street periodically as the bots go back and forth to get more packages.
Wow, you really changed your videostyle on this one, Farzad . Maybe you did earlier I haven't watched for a bit.
I can't stop thinking about the non-language learning being done here.... if it can learn cleaning from copying humans, learning dog-language from observing dogs should be no different... and suddenly we have robots that can communicate with animals the animal way, not only the way humans communicate with animals.
Imagine…. UPS/FEDX with self driving vehicles and Tesla bots 😮
Since Tesla is the only company building them I would assume (given the company values) they will be responsible about how many are deployed how fast to each industry. They can deploy most to industries that can handle it. If it's not too sudden everything will be fine.
Do you think TESLA will beat earnings or more likely to be short
Getting real I robot 🤖 vibes form all this
The BOT also won't need to pay into my Social Security.
Humans need to have purpose -goals and accomplishments. We already see the results of those who are able to avoid purpose: drugs and depression. Partial solutions? Push back on the enablers and tough love