Join the Patreon today to get the entire month of November free: www.patreon.com/josephcarlson Patreon includes: 🎥 Over 100 exclusive videos, and new ones every week. 🚀 Full access to Qualtrim.com, the stock analysis website I built from the ground up 📚 Transparent portfolio updates, with every buy and sell I do, as well as monthly one-pager updates. 💬 Access to the Joseph Carlson Show private discord community, with 4,500 members Try it out with a risk-free trial!
The problem with a lot of the bear thesis being thrown around PYPL is they don't ever give a great answer on what the price should be. If we were trading at $150 a share, okay, fine, I'm concerned. Today the stock is $53. It has a forward P/E about *half* that of the S&P 500. Right now it is priced for basically 0 growth. You're saying you are disappointed by 8% revenue growth--sure, that's not as fast as META. But it trades at 9.5x forward earnings. There's a price for everything, and it's hard to make a compelling case that the stock is overvalued or even fairly valued given today's earnings. Unless your bear thesis is 'The stock chart looks bad.'
7:32 "it's mostly flatish" is rather unfair. Clearly 2020 and 2021 were the turbulent pandemic year and aftermath and should not be used to judge the company by - and set an unreasonably high bar imo. If I draw a gently exponential trendline, shaving off 2020 and 2021 and skipping over 2022 to the $3.75 - I see a nice trajectory from $0.6 in 2012 to $3.75 in 2023 (= 18% cagr). BUT, the things that really worry me about PayPal are: 1) they've got growing competition from dynamic competitors 2) the business does seem 'lean and mean' but rather bloated with too many employees not adding enough value/profit 3) the company is a bit long in the tooth and might be entering into a decline. I bought about $55k of it when the share price was about $51 in late October - but am now deep into a rethink about whether my optimistic DCF and other analysis was obscuring deeper long-term downsides because so many of the actual figures look so good...
1. yes they do have competitors coming in, and yeah they gotta beat them, not sure how 2. they are cuttting costs tho, and improving margins 3. the growth has slowed, but i am pretty sure its not a decline.
Hi Joseph, great assessment of both companies, what's your view on Paycom's 38% drop yesterday based on a slight Revenue miss compared to Q3 targets and revised lower 2024 outlook?
@@geoffotr2830 I'm aware that BETI, Paycom's self-service software solution, it's working so well with its self-service features that it's actually eating into the company's other revenue streams.Nevertheless, this can be viewed as a testament to the robust ecosystem they are building, further solidifying their competitive edge and moat around them.. Plus, the fact that they've recently expanded to Mexico and Canada, even though it might be a bit challenging at the start, opens up a massive addressable market for them.
What do you think about next ULTA earnings? I saw elf doing well and also EL said that USA division was growing...i am waiting around 350/355 and I hope it get there but this earnings could push it away Thanks a lot
the reduction in active accounts is a small concern. t transactions per account is growing at 13 percent for the past few years. the last 3 quarters have shown increased eps, narrowed focus and good capital allocation imo.
Thanks a lot Joseph! Damm it's going tuff for me... I bought too much Estée Lauder in the beginning of the year and didn't want to sell. Damm. Now I'm so regretted it hurts. It's taking all my gains it's so embarrassing. I agree with you in the sense that's just too much lies and loads of competition, now I'm between selling or keeping. This is a real hard one. Not a good position to be in
Maybe just sell, accept the loss and put it into some sort of etf so you can slowly regain those losses. Then study on what happened to see if you can prevent it from happening again?
Same. Except mine is with SoFi. I used all my house down-payment money, ($38,000), and bought Sofi at $15.18 back in Oct. 2021. Still holding it 2 yrs later waiting for it to get back to $15 just to try to break even.
EL is still expensive even after 80% drop I have no idea why anyone would buy it. Loreal is on a different level. Not to mention their CEO sounds delusional.
EL is back to 2018 price, a time when Terry S was buying a lot. PE was then 40-50 range vs today under 40. Assuming business metrics improved for 5yrs (better sales, etc) it should be a better buy today @@samyueldanyo8679
Awesome video. I appreciate that you’ve been talking lately about not only your wins but what you’re learning from previous investing choices that didn’t turn out as you’d hoped. You’re definitely growing trust with that. I hope to see you continue to grow as an investor and help us to grow along with you
Hasn’t anyone noticed yet he is making more than half a million a year with Qualtrim..? What do u with it Joseph if not putting it in this portfolio? A private one? Just wondering
Once you join the Patreon you should be emailed a link to join the discord. Once you join the discord the exclusives are all under the “exclusive” chat. There’s over 100 episodes there.
I currently would rather own Palantir than Tesla. No offense to Elon, I think the guy is a genius. But I also think the auto industry as a whole is super difficult. Higher interest rates haven't helped it. The industry dynamics and valuation scare me with that one. Palantir may have a bit slower growth with higher interest rates, but they have more contractual type of revenue and a more capital light model.
hi Joseph, New to your show, patreon and discord ecosystem. I just got the subscription. How do we search for the community in discord and get access to the conversation there?
You should have an invite to the discord and a role that gives you access to everything. If you don’t just message me on patreon and I can make sure you’re set up correctly.
What software are you using to make video and do screen recording and writing on screen. I will like to use these features for my tutoring session to students
I’ve got a couple of good ETFs in my portfolio and I still got other share holdings doing incredible numbers. I’m up 37% YTD! I’m also well positioned with good blue chip companies and I have stop losses in place.
Thanks and all the best on your investing journey. Personally with insights from my advisor I prefer to invest in large cap companies which have economic moats, large cash flows and strong balance sheets. Some of which are AAPL, MSCI, IUKD, VHYL, SCHD, NVDA and Barclays…
The most significant lesson I gained from the stock market in 2023 is that uncertainty prevails, emphasizing the importance of humility. Adhering to a long-term strategy with a competitive edge is key
Certainty eludes everyone; thus, it's vital to establish your own methodology, handle risk, and adhere to your strategy unwaveringly. This commitment should endure challenges and successes, all while maintaining a commitment to ongoing learning and improvement.
Embracing uncertainty, I realized after five years that attempting to predict market outcomes through chart analysis was futile due to the unpredictable nature. My lack of a mentor led to six years of struggle. I transitioned to following the market's direction and adopting a straightforward, disciplined approach
Who is the professional who is advising you, if you could perhaps tell us? As a novice investing in stocks without the correct direction of a professional, I have lost a lot of money
I'm guided by Camille Anne Hector an experienced coach with extensive financial market knowledge. While you can consider other options, her strategy has yielded positive results for me. She offers valuable insights, including entry and exit points for the securities I concentrate on
Crazy This reference seems really valid.. Just looked up her full name on my browser and found her webpage without sweat, Alot of years experience is certainly striking! very much appreciate it
Hi Joseph, keen to get your thoughts on the overall market given the S&P 500 is up for the year, however take out the top five companies in the green such as Apple and Microsoft, the rest of the market looks down or flat at best, does this mean that the overall US market is actually in a dip at the moment when you exclude the AI boom and big five?
Can somebody explain why the French version of Estée Lauder ( L’Oréal ) is so stable and not getting destroyed as Estée Lauder is ? Could it be that L’Oréal offers more basic products that are consider staple ?
L'Oreal has a forward PE of around 30. Before this drop, Estee Slaughter had a PE in the triple digits. Valuations are wildly different. One of them is relatively fairly valued, the other one is massively overvalued compared to its revenue growth
@@stefanbucur6472 L’Oréal is 10x the size as well I guess there products are different / more popular as well. Seems Estée Lauder is much more a niche company than many understand.
You should know it's easy and hard to make that much profit. I say EASY because it's very possible to make that much, and Hard because you'll need professional assistance to do it, I'd suggest you get assisted by a market advisor.
I have been trading for about 6 months now and just about every trade backfires and slaps me in my face. Nearly impossible for me to catch more than a few points I try to do top down analysis but it doesn't work for me . I say to myself, clearly I'm in the 90% that lose money, so I open a demo account, do my analysis, then take the opposite of what I would normally take and get the same result. I'm starting to feel hopeless, any advice for a struggling trader?
Have a good chunk of your portfolio ie 60% into voo or spy it is a good foundation & dollar cost average when you can ,only 15% of hedge funds beat the spy , Joseph hasn’t even beaten the spy ,& use the rest on your personal stock picks
PayPal is a dying company without a moat. The product is meanwhile more a niche product here in Europe. Paying in stores is here dominated by Apple Pay, google pay or just by credit card. Buying online is quite similar but PayPal is an extra option.
Join the Patreon today to get the entire month of November free: www.patreon.com/josephcarlson
Patreon includes:
🎥 Over 100 exclusive videos, and new ones every week.
🚀 Full access to Qualtrim.com, the stock analysis website I built from the ground up
📚 Transparent portfolio updates, with every buy and sell I do, as well as monthly one-pager updates.
💬 Access to the Joseph Carlson Show private discord community, with 4,500 members
Try it out with a risk-free trial!
The problem with a lot of the bear thesis being thrown around PYPL is they don't ever give a great answer on what the price should be. If we were trading at $150 a share, okay, fine, I'm concerned. Today the stock is $53. It has a forward P/E about *half* that of the S&P 500. Right now it is priced for basically 0 growth. You're saying you are disappointed by 8% revenue growth--sure, that's not as fast as META. But it trades at 9.5x forward earnings. There's a price for everything, and it's hard to make a compelling case that the stock is overvalued or even fairly valued given today's earnings. Unless your bear thesis is 'The stock chart looks bad.'
PayPal's return to a higher EPS, which it had during COVID when profits were at an all time high, is definitely a good sign. 7:32
7:32 "it's mostly flatish" is rather unfair. Clearly 2020 and 2021 were the turbulent pandemic year and aftermath and should not be used to judge the company by - and set an unreasonably high bar imo. If I draw a gently exponential trendline, shaving off 2020 and 2021 and skipping over 2022 to the $3.75 - I see a nice trajectory from $0.6 in 2012 to $3.75 in 2023 (= 18% cagr). BUT, the things that really worry me about PayPal are: 1) they've got growing competition from dynamic competitors 2) the business does seem 'lean and mean' but rather bloated with too many employees not adding enough value/profit 3) the company is a bit long in the tooth and might be entering into a decline. I bought about $55k of it when the share price was about $51 in late October - but am now deep into a rethink about whether my optimistic DCF and other analysis was obscuring deeper long-term downsides because so many of the actual figures look so good...
1. yes they do have competitors coming in, and yeah they gotta beat them, not sure how
2. they are cuttting costs tho, and improving margins
3. the growth has slowed, but i am pretty sure its not a decline.
Hi Joseph, what is your bearish stance on Home Depot?
Hi Joseph, great assessment of both companies, what's your view on Paycom's 38% drop yesterday based on a slight Revenue miss compared to Q3 targets and revised lower 2024 outlook?
Customers are moving on to AI payroll software, that's what I think.
@@geoffotr2830 I'm aware that BETI, Paycom's self-service software solution, it's working so well with its self-service features that it's actually eating into the company's other revenue streams.Nevertheless, this can be viewed as a testament to the robust ecosystem they are building, further solidifying their competitive edge and moat around them.. Plus, the fact that they've recently expanded to Mexico and Canada, even though it might be a bit challenging at the start, opens up a massive addressable market for them.
Why would you be buying PayPal? The market is saturated with payment or fintech companies
It’s actually a 9 FPE not 15.
Is there a free month for existing users?
Up 6.8% on my paypal!
When we see how L'Oréal is doing compared to Estée Lauder... there is no excuses.
I like your analytical skills. Do you think it will continue grow?
Does Qualtrim include OTC stocks?
It does not.
Great content, I’m able to view at X2, which allows me to get through more valuable content. Thank you for your assessment of PayPal
What do you think about next ULTA earnings? I saw elf doing well and also EL said that USA division was growing...i am waiting around 350/355 and I hope it get there but this earnings could push it away
Thanks a lot
is there any way to be part of the discord without joining patreon?
We have a number of users paying with stripe because they didn’t want to go through patreon. If you want to do that let me know.
Thanks for the video.I like to hear about your views on EL .
you are spot on with Estee Lauder, excellent video as always !
I was looking for more active users on Paypal. It had a slight reduction.
the reduction in active accounts is a small concern.
t transactions per account is growing at 13 percent for the past few years.
the last 3 quarters have shown increased eps, narrowed focus and good capital allocation imo.
I cant find the try out link or button on the patreon? It just asks me to upgrade..
You should sign up for the normal full access plan, but it should only bill you the start of next month.
You should make a video about you getting Estée Lauder wrong and what you overlook.
Thanks a lot Joseph! Damm it's going tuff for me... I bought too much Estée Lauder in the beginning of the year and didn't want to sell. Damm. Now I'm so regretted it hurts. It's taking all my gains it's so embarrassing. I agree with you in the sense that's just too much lies and loads of competition, now I'm between selling or keeping. This is a real hard one. Not a good position to be in
Maybe just sell, accept the loss and put it into some sort of etf so you can slowly regain those losses. Then study on what happened to see if you can prevent it from happening again?
Same. Except mine is with SoFi. I used all my house down-payment money, ($38,000), and bought Sofi at $15.18 back in Oct. 2021. Still holding it 2 yrs later waiting for it to get back to $15 just to try to break even.
VGT is a great ETF to make up your money in 2-3 years
Estée Lauder’s still too expensive
@@kingman2332????
Dataroma still lists Terry Smith with almost 5 % of EL. I wonder if he will hold long term, like they like to say
He sold it
@@millennialinvesting3828everyone and his mom
sold)
@@millennialinvesting3828 makes sense, how do you know?
EL is still expensive even after 80% drop I have no idea why anyone would buy it. Loreal is on a different level. Not to mention their CEO sounds delusional.
EL is back to 2018 price, a time when Terry S was buying a lot. PE was then 40-50 range vs today under 40. Assuming business metrics improved for 5yrs (better sales, etc) it should be a better buy today @@samyueldanyo8679
Awesome video. I appreciate that you’ve been talking lately about not only your wins but what you’re learning from previous investing choices that didn’t turn out as you’d hoped. You’re definitely growing trust with that. I hope to see you continue to grow as an investor and help us to grow along with you
One thing I learned from investing is its easy to make money than to keep it
In such recession time, free cash flow from payment company is best 😊 Its dirt cheap.😂
Hasn’t anyone noticed yet he is making more than half a million a year with Qualtrim..? What do u with it Joseph if not putting it in this portfolio? A private one? Just wondering
Up 6.5% now. Going well so far
No context? Are you talking PayPal or EL? Are you talking share price, forecast earnings etc or what?
Dip? 😂😂😂😂 This was anything BUT a dip!
Omg bro mentioned Peru my country... what a legend
merci
Where are the exclusive episodes?
Once you join the Patreon you should be emailed a link to join the discord. Once you join the discord the exclusives are all under the “exclusive” chat. There’s over 100 episodes there.
Time to buy palantir and tesla?
I currently would rather own Palantir than Tesla.
No offense to Elon, I think the guy is a genius. But I also think the auto industry as a whole is super difficult. Higher interest rates haven't helped it. The industry dynamics and valuation scare me with that one.
Palantir may have a bit slower growth with higher interest rates, but they have more contractual type of revenue and a more capital light model.
@@JosephCarlsonAfterHoursthat would make sense if Tesla was just an automotive company
@@chadwickwood984395% of their revenue comes from car sales
No
It's not until you said After Hours in this video did I realize why this channel was called that hh
hi Joseph, New to your show, patreon and discord ecosystem. I just got the subscription. How do we search for the community in discord and get access to the conversation there?
You should have an invite to the discord and a role that gives you access to everything. If you don’t just message me on patreon and I can make sure you’re set up correctly.
If you would add a DCF calculator to qualtrum I'd consider subscribing
It’s almost done.
@@JosephCarlsonAfterHours awesome. Can't wait to try it
What software are you using to make video and do screen recording and writing on screen. I will like to use these features for my tutoring session to students
I think itll pop a little tomorrow, but I see the turnaround for this still being a good ways away.
lol k
pypl to the moon
I’ve got a couple of good ETFs in my portfolio and I still got other share holdings doing incredible numbers. I’m up 37% YTD! I’m also well positioned with good blue chip companies and I have stop losses in place.
Amazing well done! Which companies have performed best for you?
Thanks and all the best on your investing journey. Personally with insights from my advisor I prefer to invest in large cap companies which have economic moats, large cash flows and strong balance sheets. Some of which are AAPL, MSCI, IUKD, VHYL, SCHD, NVDA and Barclays…
Geez, strong performance in 2023. Congrats! Kick down those Wall Street doors
I’d say your IA is doing a great job protecting your portfolio. More still impressive as you’re making fortunes in these turbulent times!
I’d choose expertise any day because finding the right balance between investing and living is very important to me.
I knew this will happen with Estelle and I sold it. This is what Joseph comment would be
huh
what
American Boy
I have been adding to AMD
Why them and not Nvidia ?
No
Cope
The most significant lesson I gained from the stock market in 2023 is that uncertainty prevails, emphasizing the importance of humility. Adhering to a long-term strategy with a competitive edge is key
Certainty eludes everyone; thus, it's vital to establish your own methodology, handle risk, and adhere to your strategy unwaveringly. This commitment should endure challenges and successes, all while maintaining a commitment to ongoing learning and improvement.
Embracing uncertainty, I realized after five years that attempting to predict market outcomes through chart analysis was futile due to the unpredictable nature. My lack of a mentor led to six years of struggle. I transitioned to following the market's direction and adopting a straightforward, disciplined approach
Who is the professional who is advising you, if you could perhaps tell us? As a novice investing in stocks without the correct direction of a professional, I have lost a lot of money
I'm guided by Camille Anne Hector an experienced coach with extensive financial market knowledge. While you can consider other options, her strategy has yielded positive results for me. She offers valuable insights, including entry and exit points for the securities I concentrate on
Crazy This reference seems really valid.. Just looked up her full name on my browser and found her webpage without sweat, Alot of years experience is certainly striking! very much appreciate it
Hi Joseph, keen to get your thoughts on the overall market given the S&P 500 is up for the year, however take out the top five companies in the green such as Apple and Microsoft, the rest of the market looks down or flat at best, does this mean that the overall US market is actually in a dip at the moment when you exclude the AI boom and big five?
Can somebody explain why the French version of Estée Lauder ( L’Oréal ) is so stable and not getting destroyed as Estée Lauder is ?
Could it be that L’Oréal offers more basic products that are consider staple ?
L'Oreal has a forward PE of around 30. Before this drop, Estee Slaughter had a PE in the triple digits. Valuations are wildly different. One of them is relatively fairly valued, the other one is massively overvalued compared to its revenue growth
@@stefanbucur6472 L’Oréal is 10x the size as well I guess there products are different / more popular as well.
Seems Estée Lauder is much more a niche company than many understand.
1st
You should know it's easy and hard to make that much profit. I say EASY because it's very possible to make that much, and Hard because you'll need professional assistance to do it, I'd suggest you get assisted by a market advisor.
He's called Mr Jasper Strowman
It’s tragic what’s going on in Palestine/Gaza.
You’re nuts
I have been trading for about 6 months now and just about every trade backfires and slaps me in my face. Nearly impossible for me to catch more than a few points I try to do top down analysis but it doesn't work for me . I say to myself, clearly I'm in the 90% that lose money, so I open a demo account, do my analysis, then take the opposite of what I would normally take and get the same result. I'm starting to feel hopeless, any advice for a struggling trader?
Have a good chunk of your portfolio ie 60% into voo or spy it is a good foundation & dollar cost average when you can ,only 15% of hedge funds beat the spy , Joseph hasn’t even beaten the spy ,& use the rest on your personal stock picks
PayPal is a dying company without a moat.
The product is meanwhile more a niche product here in Europe.
Paying in stores is here dominated by Apple Pay, google pay or just by credit card.
Buying online is quite similar but PayPal is an extra option.
Your Apple Pay button is PayPal dude.
@@jeremycheong8036 no it’s connected directly to my bank & my Mastercard
#concurrientebalances #FamiliaTrejo #reposo
@JosephCarlsonAfterHours
thank you so much for your great show
can you also talk about the #Pfizer share
appreciated in advance