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If crypto is digital gold, gold is physical crypto. I believe that as the world wises up to the effects of fiat currencies, rising sovereign debt, and governments being unable to meet interest on such debt, demand will actally outpace inflation. Finally, by weighting your allocation according to its valuation (using a model such as Ramin's, gold:silver ratio, etc.), and regularly rebalancing, you also get a boost from trading (no prizes for guessing what I've been doing lately) and it also serves as dry powder during crises. Tyler is spot on.
Hi @minshum as you pay taxes in your domestic currency it will always have value. Governments take their control of money very seriously. And I doubt that we'll have unsustainable debt spiralling out of control in developed markets - that is very much a tail risk given the fact that budgets are transparent and the electorate is unlikely to keep voting for a party that takes its country over the brink and into bond vigilante territory. But I think from a simple diversification perspective in extremis gold makes sense, as Tyler says. Thanks, Ramin.
Crypto is not digital gold. That's just a marketing myth by crypto fanatics. Crypto is a highly speculative and volatile, ponzi-like scheme with no historical proof of any store of value, indeed it's not limited since any number of new and supposedly superior crypto coins can be invented and introduced to the market at any time. Gold however is limited to what is held in the earth's crust and unlike crypto cannot be invented into being. Moreover, gold is a physical reality that can be held in the hand. It doesn't rely on electricity or a digital platform to exist and unlike crypto can't be wiped out by some quantum computer hack. Gold, unlike crypto has a history of store of value over millennia. So in fact, not only is there is no comparison, crypto is virtually the opposite of gold. There's a reason central banks are hoarding gold, not Bitcoin & Co.
Great overview. Despite many finance "experts" saying they dislike gold because it doesn't generate an income, I've been holding Invesco Physical Gold ETC (SGLP) for the last 18 months in my SIPP and ISA and it has easily outperformed everything else in my portfolio. I only wish I'd bought more! Given the global instability with seemingly never-ending wars, natural disasters etc. and the fondness for gold in growing BRICS countries, I can't see gold dropping in value any time soon (...watch it crash now I've said that! 😆).
Investment as a word has been hopelessly abused to the point of being meaningless. Almost any spending (including public sector pay rises) can be framed so.
@@steveaustin1984 well if you bought it a year ago and sold today it produced 30% profit! Certain antiques, artwork, whisky, rolexes and Lego sets are no different to physical gold in that they are a physical object that can go up or down in value, but are sometimes bought as an investment in the hope it will go up in value. The term "gold isn't an investment, it's a store of value" is a trope which is sometimes true, sometimes isn't! Gold can absolutely be bought as an investment to trade or flip! Ergo it's an investment for them! This is 2024 so I don't expect you to say I'm actually correct! By all means double down on being wrong. But if actually digest what I've said you may realise I'm correct in what I'm saying!
You could do a whole video on whether Governments measure inflation correctly. How come the most expensive item most people ever buy (a house) isn't included in the figures? According to the BoE inflation calculator the house I bought in 1986 should be worth about £70000. It is actually closer to three times that ! Rebase house prices to ounces of Gold and you will get a much more sensible value.
I'm late to the investing game and already looking at retirement plans while I learn about finance and portfolios in any depth for the first time! This is one of the most useful videos about gold I've come across and the excellent research article you referenced was a brilliant read - invaluable stuff, my knowledge just shot right up. Now you're my go-to finance ytuber! One (rookie) question about gold: when might the CGT exemption with UK coins sway someone like yourself back from the fund route, if ever?
Hi @andrewvickers4487 thanks for that! I personally can't be bothered with something physical such as capital gains tax free UK gold coins as it introduces storage worries (buried in the garden, safety deposit box, safe...) and liquidity worries (how do I sell?, where do I sell?, what price will I get?). Thanks, Ramin.
@@Pensioncraft Thanks Ramin. The reason I ask is that the Royal Mint's storage fee (as low as 1% + VAT) and their buy-back service would seem to ease the concerns you raise. I guess I'll grab a calculator and head further down the rabbit hole.
@andrewvickers4487 I'd consider 1% a high fee in this day and age. You can buy a global index found for around 0.15-0.2% and even a physical gold fund aka "paper gold" for a similar fee. Even the Royal Mint has got one for only a 0.25% fee.
Nice video. I think I'll add gold when approaching the drawdown phase. Most likely buying a fund. Will consider the CGT benefits of physical gold nearer the time though.
Good video Sven. The distinction I would make is that this gold cycle has been driven by central banks and central banks buy gold and not miners. But, there is plenty of time for sentiment from the retail investor to enter the formula. Also, you showed Barrick's chart, a company that has most of their mines in Africa. If you show Agnico's, Lundin's, Kinross' or WPM's the take will be different. Geopolitics and sentiment also affect the opinion on what a safe jurisdiction is. Cheers!
14:30 Historically high interest rates and strong dollar have been a negative for the price of gold, however, not recently, and that is the point. There is a decoupling underway. Very bullish for gold. BRICS central banks are not wanting to hold a weaponised dollar and a 10y bond with increasing fiscal deficits.
Yes agree, you also have a lot of money in the economy given away by the government over COVID which has now filtered up to the mega wealthy who will need to put their money somewhere (especially when interest rates come down)
Fine, and I kind of agree, but creates a different set of problems - where are you going to keep it ?, are you going to put it on the house insurance ? (good luck with that), what about the costs involved in actually buying and selling even sovereigns ?
The 'no capital gain tax' on british gold bullion actually works in France as well because they have legal tender value in UK (same for other gold coins having legal tender value in their countries, like e.g canadian or south african gold coins have) whereas we have capital gain tax on our Napoleon gold coin because they lost their legal tender value long ago
@@jabberwockytdi8901 if you buy Britannias from Chards, you only pay 1.7% over spot, and get 100% of spot when you sell. That's a bargain with no fees if you store it yourself.
Compare 20 year growth charts of Gold vs FTSE/Large or Small Caps and you'll see volatility in ALL the charts. However, Gold is money. You can exchange it anywhere in the world and will protect your purchasing power against inflationary price rises.
In the October 1987 crash, Rio Tinto Zinc (RTZ) was the only FTSE 100 stock to go up in value. As far as i could tell it did not repeat the trick in the September 1992 Black Wednesday crash
I am surprised you did not mention the risk of Fiat currency and the loss of purchasing power? With funds you cannot get your investment back in the form of physical gold when you cash in. You only get Fiat currency which in today's world of increasing debt could well be worth much less than when you made your investment. This is why you buy physical (digital which can you swap for physical is a good alternate) in the first instance.
The spread between buying physical gold CGT free coins (Britannicas) and selling them again can be as low as 1.7% as of today (best price today Chards). They charge 1.7% premium over spot for these coins, but then back at spot.
@@joshwatts8654 you can sell them at spot price pretty much anywhere at any time in the future. Buying them with the lowest premium is key. 1.7% is a great price.
and today "JP Morgan is currently in custody of 600 tons of gold, which is 70% of the gold backing the world's largest gold exchange-traded fund (ETF)". Last week I was wondering how strong a floor you would need for that.
😆😆 A pretty rock is not real money. Real money is gov't issued & backed dollars, that has an established system behind it, as well as income generation, innovation, ingenuity, the US military, etc., etc. A rock is nothing, lacking such a system in place to back it's value.
@@Spawny500 As you wish. Many empires have come and gone since according to history Croesus issued the first gold coins between 500 & 600 BC, and yes, for a time the empire du jour can force its citizens to use whatever currency they choose but history shows us that it never lasts. BTW how's the purchasing power of that dollar you/your parent/grandparent put in a C.D. on August 15th 1971 working out for you?
Good point, although I think you will find it was the dollar that was linked to gold. Other countries than linked to the dollar. That reminds me of Harold Wilson saying in 1967 "From now the pound abroad is worth 14% or so less in terms of other currencies. It does not mean, of course, that the pound here in Britain, in your pocket or purse or in your bank, has been devalued.” Since the $ was linked to gold I presume the U.K. price of gold jumped.
Careful Ramin, the intermediate cycle correction may be just beginning. may need a 1.5-4 month correction in price and time i think before start going up again.
You can hold physical gold in your pension through the Royal Mint IIRC. Looks like there is a 1% (plus VAT) fee per year plus a 2% sell back fee. It's not exactly cheap, therefore. I'm not sure what problem it solves vs 'paper gold' though.
i think now is the best time to invest in sliver in other to make good profit from it . but hope it stays long upwards , still need more help on guidelines to know how the sliver market will turn out .
Impressive video, the financial landscape is intricate, with forces affecting equities, stocks ,bonds, silver, gold, and Bitcoin. Economic uncertainties add complexity. Technical analysis is crucial for adaptable investment strategies. Monica Lisa Payne, with expertise in cryptocurrency and traditional trading, coupled with her holistic approach and commitment to staying current, is an essential guide in navigating this new era in the ever-evolving financial landscape..
Investing has proven to be an incredibly beneficial decision. My cryptocurrency profits continue to play a substantial role in growing my overall wealth, reducing my reliance on my salary
I am learning the hard way about making decisions with, and through emotions, Emotions driving and pushing that train down the tracks. It will derail it's just a matter of time.
I was told, years ago, to hold 10% of wealth in gold and hope you never ever need to draw on it because that is a nightmare scenario that causes you to do so.
So glad I bought gold back in 2018, been a great buy. I wish I'd bought it back 20years ago though. I'd recommend anyone interested look into miners as usually up 10x vs the metal when it hockey sticks up eventually. Now is a great buying opportunity for miners, if history repeats.
Are you sure about that? GLD etf is up 30% in the last year. Van Eck gold miners GDGB is up 37%. I'd like to add miners to my portfolio but am no expert on gold and thinking I have missed the boat so probably not the best time to buy now?
I bought a small number of Gold Bullion Securities ETF much earlier than that. While the return has been great, annoyingly it is stuck in my Halifax Share Dealing account which won't let me sell it (possibly because it isn't a U.|K. stock).
@@MrDuncl Find a broker that will do a stock transfer and move your account to them. IBKR, IG, II and many others will do this. if Halifax wont play complain. Firstly to them and if you get no joy then the FOS. it's your wealth.
How about holding 50% of gold portion of the portfolio in physical CGT free coins, 50% in funds. When selling to rebalance the overall portfolio only sell units/shares in funds that are very liquid? No need then to worry about large spread involved with the physical CGT free coins as they are intended to be held for a very long time if not forever.
@@jake8077 That would make sense in somewhere like the USA, but if you purchase them in the UK then they would be subjected to capital gains tax upon sale.
If, (or should that be when), the world economy goes sideways, would you really trust banks or safety deposit box companies to actually give you access to your gold???...not a chance, I'll keep it "safe" myself.
Why choose a fund at full value (100% to NAV) when you could buy an investment trust (Golden Precious Metals, ticker GPM) at a 18% discount to NAV, that has returned a 70% return over 12 months NET of fees? A rather glaring omission.
He forget to mention that demand and supply drive gold price too, apart from interest rate and USD. I would say the main driver for the gold price increases has been due to strong demand from central banks and institutions. Given the interest rate is likely to come down should lower USD and more geopolitical tensions ahead should continue to power further demand for gold and push its high price even price higher, assuming that supply doesn't outstrip demand.
Years ago I saw a TV programme in which the manager of a gold mine said that their profit margin was only about 10%, the rest going in machinery, fuel, and wages. The price of all of those has gone up a lot since then.
@ - the idea is costs go up at (or around) the rate of inflation. If your end product goes up in value by 20-30% your bottom line should go up considerably more than that. That’s why it’s meant to be a leveraged play on the price of gold! Hopefully, for me, the market catches up 🤷♂️
The big gold mining companies are a horrible choice. Yes they’ve gone up in price when the gold price has but lagging massively. Performance over the last 5 years: GLD: +77% Newmont: +14% Barrick: +12%
"... the gold coin's status as legal British currency ..." The face value of the Sovereign coin is £1. Perhaps I'll trot along to the Bank of England, with £20.00 and ask them to exchange the notes for twenty sovereign coins. That would seem like a good return on £20 🤣
Better than silver. Also, gold is CGT Free if it's LEGAL TENDER of the British Pound. You don't pay VAT on gold either. Also, its like any other investment, you invest in something that could be worthful or worthless in the future. Gold has always been usedfor 2 purposes; jewellery and Currency. And has been for Thousands of years. It's rare and it's the only metal that's pure and naturally yellow created by Stars. Finally, having some gold is good, but putting all eggs in one basket is the worse thing you can do and i think thats what this chap was trying to say 😊
Love this channel but this just sounds like someone who doesn’t like a ‘pet rock’ outperforming a finance PhD 😂 The tailwinds behind gold are presently a mathematical certainty
Wait wut, you can hold gold in an ISA, a stocks and shares ISA, using something like Wisdom tree Physical Gold PHGP, or even Royal Mint RMAP for convertibility into physical if you so wish.
You still don't understand gold at all, Ramin, despite this being your 5th or 6th video on it. You cannot use returns before 1971 in long term returns as we were on a different monetary system. Gold has behaved exactly how it should behave since the gold window closed. Look at long term M2 & M4 growth since then and they are very much in line with the long term gains in gold. Gold is real money, so when they continually dilute fiat money the price of gold continually responds.
Ramin was saying it only tracks inflation rather than being a 'hedge'. What does it do that other commodities don't do insofar as they inflate with inflation?
@@george6977 It's considered the currency of last resort. Sure, it wouldn't work well for the same reasons we no longer use specie as a day to day currency.
Agreed, Back in 2020 I did the calculation of the value of an ounce of gold based on M2, the amount of gold owned by the UK state in the vaults of the Bank of England and based it to the 40% coverage of gold to currency the UK ran at the end of the classical gold standard up until 1931. The figure came out at around £90,000 per oz. I recently rerun the calculation following the unparalleled splurge of Fiat in the post COVID period where 30% of all Fiat in existence was issued in the western world. Now equates to £111,110, 22% higher, so maybe a bit more to go to catch up. I'm not sure if we will ever get back to the level of the classic gold standard but it sure is a brilliant hedge against the lack of fiscal rectitude of the political class and has been for the last 5000 years.
@@stuartrathbone5403 Sure, it's a great store of value for when civilisations collapse. The problem is there won't be anything to buy with it and a shotgun will be more immediately valuable. A bet on gold this is a bet on a tail risk where you lose either way.
Is this is a joke? Should you ever have a need to sell an, what then? You have to go through identity checks to sell if I’m not mistaken and at that point HMRC will probably be alerted. Take your buried gold to the grave if you like but really, what’s the point.
Core inflation does not now, and will never include FOOD or ENERGY - buy Gold ETF's. Wake up peeps. And yes, you can comfortably use the word never in this case.
Your figures at 2:53 are irrelevant to me because I wasn't alive in 1920 - Gold was $40 in 1970 and $2,700 today . The S&P was about $100 in 1970 and is now $6,000 - you do the math - Gold beats the stock market by about 10% - and btw - value investing with 'any dividends' is dead and the stock market's gains since about 2015 have been fueled primarily by about 10 companies - right ? Hope you all picked well .........
I usually agree very much with most of the info you presented... However I think you are not contemplating the actual power of gold specially since 1971 and accounting with the continuous attempts to manipulate its price... It is a monetary inflation hedge... (the Cpi and whatever metrics of governments are fake) and it has working very well since the begging of ages... Compary usd or euro in units of gold... Not gold in units of fake paper... Please.
Hi @ivivivir stocks are a much better inflation hedge. Incorporating the period since 1971 when gold surged after the end of Bretton Woods flatters the return of gold and that isn't a phenomenon that will be repeated. Any commodity is an inflation hedge because any commodity will approximately match inflation over the long-term. However, stocks generate a considerable risk premium that exceeds inflation. Thanks, Ramin.
Sprott Physical Gold Trust (and their Silver Trust) is physically redeemable though not nearly as liquid as GLD and the other "paper gold ETFs". It's also a closed-end fund, so somewhat different than the others.
Gold isn't bullish, it's fiat money that is going bearish. The system is collapsing. Because they want it to collapse. If you like sponsoring the bankers (creators of all wars).Buy stocks or keep your money in the bank ,if not ,buy gold
What on earth are you saying? When you say gold coins are not pure enough you are wrong. All sovereign mints ( mints tasked with minting gold coins with their respective countries currency pressed onto the coin ) are 99.99% pure. I feel like you don't fully understand gold making such statements. 99.99% is good enough for every central bank who collectively own many thousands of tons held by every country in the G20. You need to research a little better. There is no such thing as reserves of pure gold that is 100% pure free from impurities from any other element.
If you had $250k, which investments would you go for in terms of maximizing returns and mitigating risks? I'm semi-retired and only work 7.5 hours weekly. Looking for opportunities in the market that can fetch me millions, in order to retire comfortably.
yes. now videos after every tom ,dick and harry is long gold. now its time for suckers to jump in . even a corrective move from here will wipe out loads of last minute get rich quick investors.
Thats why I invest in PEWTER ...I own 16 Franklin Mint Civil War Chess Sets ... and many assorted loose pieces ..they keep going up every year in value ...Pewter is the NEW GOLD . .. get in now before its too late ..I am doing well .... check the Ebay Prices ...once Pewter is no longer manipulated, it will soar
Sounds like a rational approach not to buy gold. I converted all my savings to gold in 2022 because of fear of reckless government borrowing and spending, instigating more wars and neglect of society.
Hi @spencerd9325 as I say in the intro it's best to be clear about what gold is and isn't. And also to base those judgments on facts, which I present in this video. As with _any_ investment there are two sides to the argument about whether to incorporate it in your portfolio and I try to present the pros and cons. Thanks, Ramin.
You cannot compare gold to stocks before and after the end of the Bretton Woods System in 1971. After that decision taken by Nixon to avoid US likely going bankrupt, a sizable allocation in gold (let’s say 10-20% or so) definitely improves risk adjusted return over the long term in any portfolio particularly if one needs periodical withdrawals like a retiree
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3:11 a fair comparison would have been to base line to 1971 when gold became free floating against currencies.4:19 on point 👍
If crypto is digital gold, gold is physical crypto.
I believe that as the world wises up to the effects of fiat currencies, rising sovereign debt, and governments being unable to meet interest on such debt, demand will actally outpace inflation.
Finally, by weighting your allocation according to its valuation (using a model such as Ramin's, gold:silver ratio, etc.), and regularly rebalancing, you also get a boost from trading (no prizes for guessing what I've been doing lately) and it also serves as dry powder during crises. Tyler is spot on.
Wait until AI figures out how to empty your crypto wallet. And countries should do nothing, as they rely on fiat currency.
Hi @minshum as you pay taxes in your domestic currency it will always have value. Governments take their control of money very seriously. And I doubt that we'll have unsustainable debt spiralling out of control in developed markets - that is very much a tail risk given the fact that budgets are transparent and the electorate is unlikely to keep voting for a party that takes its country over the brink and into bond vigilante territory. But I think from a simple diversification perspective in extremis gold makes sense, as Tyler says. Thanks, Ramin.
Crypto is not digital gold. That's just a marketing myth by crypto fanatics. Crypto is a highly speculative and volatile, ponzi-like scheme with no historical proof of any store of value, indeed it's not limited since any number of new and supposedly superior crypto coins can be invented and introduced to the market at any time. Gold however is limited to what is held in the earth's crust and unlike crypto cannot be invented into being. Moreover, gold is a physical reality that can be held in the hand. It doesn't rely on electricity or a digital platform to exist and unlike crypto can't be wiped out by some quantum computer hack.
Gold, unlike crypto has a history of store of value over millennia. So in fact, not only is there is no comparison, crypto is virtually the opposite of gold. There's a reason central banks are hoarding gold, not Bitcoin & Co.
Great overview. Despite many finance "experts" saying they dislike gold because it doesn't generate an income, I've been holding Invesco Physical Gold ETC (SGLP) for the last 18 months in my SIPP and ISA and it has easily outperformed everything else in my portfolio. I only wish I'd bought more! Given the global instability with seemingly never-ending wars, natural disasters etc. and the fondness for gold in growing BRICS countries, I can't see gold dropping in value any time soon (...watch it crash now I've said that! 😆).
It did u called it💀
It is very quick and easy to sell physical gold
I second this.
Subjective.
Semantics, perhaps, but gold isn’t an investment; it is a store of value.
Depends on when you buy it. It' actually can be both or either depending on the individual.
Investment as a word has been hopelessly abused to the point of being meaningless. Almost any spending (including public sector pay rises) can be framed so.
@@bobdigi500 Does it earn interest or produce anything useful?
No?
It's not an investment.
@@steveaustin1984...po toj logici...ni kripto nije investicija....
@@steveaustin1984 well if you bought it a year ago and sold today it produced 30% profit! Certain antiques, artwork, whisky, rolexes and Lego sets are no different to physical gold in that they are a physical object that can go up or down in value, but are sometimes bought as an investment in the hope it will go up in value.
The term "gold isn't an investment, it's a store of value" is a trope which is sometimes true, sometimes isn't!
Gold can absolutely be bought as an investment to trade or flip! Ergo it's an investment for them!
This is 2024 so I don't expect you to say I'm actually correct! By all means double down on being wrong. But if actually digest what I've said you may realise I'm correct in what I'm saying!
You could do a whole video on whether Governments measure inflation correctly. How come the most expensive item most people ever buy (a house) isn't included in the figures? According to the BoE inflation calculator the house I bought in 1986 should be worth about £70000. It is actually closer to three times that ! Rebase house prices to ounces of Gold and you will get a much more sensible value.
I never fall for the fake figures of all govts
I'm late to the investing game and already looking at retirement plans while I learn about finance and portfolios in any depth for the first time! This is one of the most useful videos about gold I've come across and the excellent research article you referenced was a brilliant read - invaluable stuff, my knowledge just shot right up. Now you're my go-to finance ytuber!
One (rookie) question about gold: when might the CGT exemption with UK coins sway someone like yourself back from the fund route, if ever?
Hi @andrewvickers4487 thanks for that! I personally can't be bothered with something physical such as capital gains tax free UK gold coins as it introduces storage worries (buried in the garden, safety deposit box, safe...) and liquidity worries (how do I sell?, where do I sell?, what price will I get?). Thanks, Ramin.
@@Pensioncraft Thanks Ramin. The reason I ask is that the Royal Mint's storage fee (as low as 1% + VAT) and their buy-back service would seem to ease the concerns you raise. I guess I'll grab a calculator and head further down the rabbit hole.
@andrewvickers4487 I'd consider 1% a high fee in this day and age. You can buy a global index found for around 0.15-0.2% and even a physical gold fund aka "paper gold" for a similar fee. Even the Royal Mint has got one for only a 0.25% fee.
Nice video. I think I'll add gold when approaching the drawdown phase. Most likely buying a fund. Will consider the CGT benefits of physical gold nearer the time though.
Thank you!
Good video Sven. The distinction I would make is that this gold cycle has been driven by central banks and central banks buy gold and not miners. But, there is plenty of time for sentiment from the retail investor to enter the formula. Also, you showed Barrick's chart, a company that has most of their mines in Africa. If you show Agnico's, Lundin's, Kinross' or WPM's the take will be different. Geopolitics and sentiment also affect the opinion on what a safe jurisdiction is. Cheers!
As always, thank you for the excellent video!
Glad you enjoyed it!
Thank you for this great video ❤ I would like to see a video on long duration bonds...❤️
Thanks for the idea!
14:30 Historically high interest rates and strong dollar have been a negative for the price of gold, however, not recently, and that is the point. There is a decoupling underway. Very bullish for gold. BRICS central banks are not wanting to hold a weaponised dollar and a 10y bond with increasing fiscal deficits.
Yes agree, you also have a lot of money in the economy given away by the government over COVID which has now filtered up to the mega wealthy who will need to put their money somewhere (especially when interest rates come down)
@ Great point
I would only buy physical gold.
Fine, and I kind of agree, but creates a different set of problems - where are you going to keep it ?, are you going to put it on the house insurance ? (good luck with that), what about the costs involved in actually buying and selling even sovereigns ?
. In an old sock " under the floor boards 😂.
Done ✅.
20k barely fills the palm of your hand.
@@Eddie.Mootsen Not telling you!
@@Lovemy911 Isn't that a good thing?
The 'no capital gain tax' on british gold bullion actually works in France as well because they have legal tender value in UK (same for other gold coins having legal tender value in their countries, like e.g canadian or south african gold coins have) whereas we have capital gain tax on our Napoleon gold coin because they lost their legal tender value long ago
No capital gains tax paid on sovereigns etc. You do on things like jewellery. That can make a huge difference.
@@jabberwockytdi8901 if you buy Britannias from Chards, you only pay 1.7% over spot, and get 100% of spot when you sell. That's a bargain with no fees if you store it yourself.
I always value your thoughts.
Thank you @torgutm
I'm a gold bug and try to keep, at least, 5% of wealth in the real thing.
now that you can buy Gold ETF's 20% has been my minimum for the last 7 years ......
Compare 20 year growth charts of Gold vs FTSE/Large or Small Caps and you'll see volatility in ALL the charts. However, Gold is money. You can exchange it anywhere in the world and will protect your purchasing power against inflationary price rises.
In the October 1987 crash, Rio Tinto Zinc (RTZ) was the only FTSE 100 stock to go up in value. As far as i could tell it did not repeat the trick in the September 1992 Black Wednesday crash
I am surprised you did not mention the risk of Fiat currency and the loss of purchasing power? With funds you cannot get your investment back in the form of physical gold when you cash in. You only get Fiat currency which in today's world of increasing debt could well be worth much less than when you made your investment. This is why you buy physical (digital which can you swap for physical is a good alternate) in the first instance.
When the time comes to selling gold how much less do you get compared to spot price ?
You will generally get spot price, even on coins.
The spread between buying physical gold CGT free coins (Britannicas) and selling them again can be as low as 1.7% as of today (best price today Chards). They charge 1.7% premium over spot for these coins, but then back at spot.
@ is that for even 20 years later? Or is there a time frame ?
@@joshwatts8654 you can sell them at spot price pretty much anywhere at any time in the future. Buying them with the lowest premium is key. 1.7% is a great price.
What gold is;
"Gold Is Money. Everything Else Is credit".
Not me but none other than J.P. Morgan as stated in his testimony before Congress in 1912.
and today "JP Morgan is currently in custody of 600 tons of gold, which is 70% of the gold backing the world's largest gold exchange-traded fund (ETF)". Last week I was wondering how strong a floor you would need for that.
😆😆 A pretty rock is not real money. Real money is gov't issued & backed dollars, that has an established system behind it, as well as income generation, innovation, ingenuity, the US military, etc., etc. A rock is nothing, lacking such a system in place to back it's value.
@@Spawny500 If that is the case why does the US Government hold 8134 tons of gold ?
@@Spawny500 As you wish. Many empires have come and gone since according to history Croesus issued the first gold coins between 500 & 600 BC, and yes, for a time the empire du jour can force its citizens to use whatever currency they choose but history shows us that it never lasts. BTW how's the purchasing power of that dollar you/your parent/grandparent put in a C.D. on August 15th 1971 working out for you?
@@MrDuncl much of it was acquired while we were on the gold standard, which makes sense.
Check the same table but starting after 1970. when gold was not linked to the dollar...
Good point, although I think you will find it was the dollar that was linked to gold. Other countries than linked to the dollar. That reminds me of Harold Wilson saying in 1967 "From now the pound abroad is worth 14% or so less in terms of other currencies. It does not mean, of course, that the pound here in Britain, in your pocket or purse or in your bank, has been devalued.” Since the $ was linked to gold I presume the U.K. price of gold jumped.
Gold doesn’t have a fix supply does it?
Careful Ramin, the intermediate cycle correction may be just beginning. may need a 1.5-4 month correction in price and time i think before start going up again.
How about holding physical gold bars in your pension or ISA? What are your thoughts? Thanks
You can hold physical gold in your pension through the Royal Mint IIRC. Looks like there is a 1% (plus VAT) fee per year plus a 2% sell back fee. It's not exactly cheap, therefore. I'm not sure what problem it solves vs 'paper gold' though.
@ I agree. You also have to pay for putting the gold bar in a vault. Not worth it but an option.
OR ..dig a hole in your back yard
@@nighttrain1236Physical in your hand is tax free
Possession is nine tenths of the law.
Excellent review 👍
Thanks! 👍
What are the pros and cons of broad precious metals fund over or under gold fund?
The price of gold is a barometer of monetary ineptitude.
i think now is the best time to invest in sliver in other to make good profit from it . but hope it stays long upwards , still need more help on guidelines to know how the sliver market will turn out .
Impressive video, the financial landscape is intricate, with forces affecting equities, stocks ,bonds, silver, gold, and Bitcoin. Economic uncertainties add complexity. Technical analysis is crucial for adaptable investment strategies. Monica Lisa Payne, with expertise in cryptocurrency and traditional trading, coupled with her holistic approach and commitment to staying current, is an essential guide in navigating this new era in the ever-evolving financial landscape..
Investing has proven to be an incredibly beneficial decision. My cryptocurrency profits continue to play a substantial role in growing my overall wealth, reducing my reliance on my salary
I am learning the hard way about making decisions with,
and through emotions,
Emotions driving and pushing that train down the tracks.
It will derail it's just a matter of time.
I got no stocks/shares no bonds, or bills what i did invest in was gold.
Gold is not an investment.
@carlyndolphin gold is a tier one asset has ETFs and billions are traded in gold everyday in various markets the comex LMA and others.
@@carlyndolphin it's gone up by more than 9% per year since 1970. I'd call that a good investment for the size of the risk.
@@sdpryce Depends what time periods you compare, but in real terms it’s still lacking behind inflation.
@@sdpryce 1980 to 2005 gold did zero. In fact it lost value in real terms.
Most of the gold and silver I own is in the form of jewellery, I have the base metal plus the beauty and I can wear and enjoy it.
I was told, years ago, to hold 10% of wealth in gold and hope you never ever need to draw on it because that is a nightmare scenario that causes you to do so.
Digital gold via the Royal Mint👍
Is that tax free ?
@ Yes👍
When selling do you get the spot price?
I’ve just been on royal mint website and digi gold is not capital gains tax free as your buying part of bullion and not coins
@@joshwatts8654 No CGT if you are not UK resident
So glad I bought gold back in 2018, been a great buy. I wish I'd bought it back 20years ago though. I'd recommend anyone interested look into miners as usually up 10x vs the metal when it hockey sticks up eventually. Now is a great buying opportunity for miners, if history repeats.
Are you sure about that? GLD etf is up 30% in the last year. Van Eck gold miners GDGB is up 37%. I'd like to add miners to my portfolio but am no expert on gold and thinking I have missed the boat so probably not the best time to buy now?
I bought a small number of Gold Bullion Securities ETF much earlier than that. While the return has been great, annoyingly it is stuck in my Halifax Share Dealing account which won't let me sell it (possibly because it isn't a U.|K. stock).
@@MrDuncl Find a broker that will do a stock transfer and move your account to them. IBKR, IG, II and many others will do this. if Halifax wont play complain. Firstly to them and if you get no joy then the FOS. it's your wealth.
How about holding 50% of gold portion of the portfolio in physical CGT free coins, 50% in funds. When selling to rebalance the overall portfolio only sell units/shares in funds that are very liquid? No need then to worry about large spread involved with the physical CGT free coins as they are intended to be held for a very long time if not forever.
how about diversification??????????????? Half your money in Gold Eagles and HALF in Gold Buffaloes ... dont put all your eggs in one basket
@@jake8077 That would make sense in somewhere like the USA, but if you purchase them in the UK then they would be subjected to capital gains tax upon sale.
If, (or should that be when), the world economy goes sideways, would you really trust banks or safety deposit box companies to actually give you access to your gold???...not a chance, I'll keep it "safe" myself.
Best way is to buy it when Gordon Brown is selling it
"The Brown Bottom" 🙂
Golden Teddy
Is GLDD meant to be GLDW?
Why choose a fund at full value (100% to NAV) when you could buy an investment trust (Golden Precious Metals, ticker GPM) at a 18% discount to NAV, that has returned a 70% return over 12 months NET of fees? A rather glaring omission.
Bit late to the party kid
He forget to mention that demand and supply drive gold price too, apart from interest rate and USD. I would say the main driver for the gold price increases has been due to strong demand from central banks and institutions. Given the interest rate is likely to come down should lower USD and more geopolitical tensions ahead should continue to power further demand for gold and push its high price even price higher, assuming that supply doesn't outstrip demand.
Indians are the biggest consumers of gold . Almost all of Indian middle class have atleast 1kg of gold in their portfolio
The price of miners hasn’t kept up with the price of gold.
If/when the link normalises, miners should do well (assuming gold doesn’t crash!!)
Years ago I saw a TV programme in which the manager of a gold mine said that their profit margin was only about 10%, the rest going in machinery, fuel, and wages. The price of all of those has gone up a lot since then.
@ - the idea is costs go up at (or around) the rate of inflation. If your end product goes up in value by 20-30% your bottom line should go up considerably more than that. That’s why it’s meant to be a leveraged play on the price of gold!
Hopefully, for me, the market catches up 🤷♂️
How to keep big brother from knowing about your purchases?
The big gold mining companies are a horrible choice. Yes they’ve gone up in price when the gold price has but lagging massively. Performance over the last 5 years:
GLD: +77%
Newmont: +14%
Barrick: +12%
"... the gold coin's status as legal British currency ..." The face value of the Sovereign coin is £1. Perhaps I'll trot along to the Bank of England, with £20.00 and ask them to exchange the notes for twenty sovereign coins. That would seem like a good return on £20 🤣
Worth a try
Better than silver.
Also, gold is CGT Free if it's LEGAL TENDER of the British Pound. You don't pay VAT on gold either.
Also, its like any other investment, you invest in something that could be worthful or worthless in the future. Gold has always been usedfor 2 purposes; jewellery and Currency. And has been for Thousands of years. It's rare and it's the only metal that's pure and naturally yellow created by Stars.
Finally, having some gold is good, but putting all eggs in one basket is the worse thing you can do and i think thats what this chap was trying to say 😊
Love this channel but this just sounds like someone who doesn’t like a ‘pet rock’ outperforming a finance PhD 😂
The tailwinds behind gold are presently a mathematical certainty
If you do not HOLD it, you do NOT own it. Third party risk unless you have physical possession or have it vaulted locally.
Wait wut, you can hold gold in an ISA, a stocks and shares ISA, using something like Wisdom tree Physical Gold PHGP, or even Royal Mint RMAP for convertibility into physical if you so wish.
You still don't understand gold at all, Ramin, despite this being your 5th or 6th video on it.
You cannot use returns before 1971 in long term returns as we were on a different monetary system.
Gold has behaved exactly how it should behave since the gold window closed. Look at long term M2 & M4 growth since then and they are very much in line with the long term gains in gold. Gold is real money, so when they continually dilute fiat money the price of gold continually responds.
Ramin was saying it only tracks inflation rather than being a 'hedge'. What does it do that other commodities don't do insofar as they inflate with inflation?
Gold is no longer money; you can’t conveniently carry it around and spend it in shops.
@@george6977 It's considered the currency of last resort. Sure, it wouldn't work well for the same reasons we no longer use specie as a day to day currency.
Agreed,
Back in 2020 I did the calculation of the value of an ounce of gold based on M2, the amount of gold owned by the UK state in the vaults of the Bank of England and based it to the 40% coverage of gold to currency the UK ran at the end of the classical gold standard up until 1931. The figure came out at around £90,000 per oz.
I recently rerun the calculation following the unparalleled splurge of Fiat in the post COVID period where 30% of all Fiat in existence was issued in the western world.
Now equates to £111,110, 22% higher, so maybe a bit more to go to catch up. I'm not sure if we will ever get back to the level of the classic gold standard but it sure is a brilliant hedge against the lack of fiscal rectitude of the political class and has been for the last 5000 years.
@@stuartrathbone5403 Sure, it's a great store of value for when civilisations collapse. The problem is there won't be anything to buy with it and a shotgun will be more immediately valuable.
A bet on gold this is a bet on a tail risk where you lose either way.
Hold gold buy it cash bury it in the garden. Don't tell any 1.Hrmc can still get hold of your gold. Be old school and keep your mouth shut
Is this is a joke? Should you ever have a need to sell an, what then? You have to go through identity checks to sell if I’m not mistaken and at that point HMRC will probably be alerted. Take your buried gold to the grave if you like but really, what’s the point.
O yes yes but you will always find a way 2 sell it
If general equities fall heavily, the price of gold miners nearly all rises, not go down as stated in this video.
The cheapest U.S. gold etf is IAUM. Expense ratio is .09
Other UA-camrs report that gold has went up 8% each year over last 20 years?
Gold miner ETFs?
Core inflation does not now, and will never include FOOD or ENERGY - buy Gold ETF's. Wake up peeps. And yes, you can comfortably use the word never in this case.
I have wisdom tree physical gold
Your figures at 2:53 are irrelevant to me because I wasn't alive in 1920 - Gold was $40 in 1970 and $2,700 today . The S&P was about $100 in 1970 and is now $6,000 - you do the math - Gold beats the stock market by about 10% - and btw - value investing with 'any dividends' is dead and the stock market's gains since about 2015 have been fueled primarily by about 10 companies - right ? Hope you all picked well .........
"If you can't hold it, you don't own it"
You don't own your stocks then or your pension.
And if you can hold it, it can be stolen!
In an old sock " and under the floor boards 😂.
Done ✅.
@@bobdigi500 why you telling everyone you have gold hidden?
@oblong3039 I literally said the opposite lol. Wake up!
Euro Sun Mining $$$$$
I usually agree very much with most of the info you presented... However I think you are not contemplating the actual power of gold specially since 1971 and accounting with the continuous attempts to manipulate its price... It is a monetary inflation hedge... (the Cpi and whatever metrics of governments are fake) and it has working very well since the begging of ages... Compary usd or euro in units of gold... Not gold in units of fake paper... Please.
Hi @ivivivir stocks are a much better inflation hedge. Incorporating the period since 1971 when gold surged after the end of Bretton Woods flatters the return of gold and that isn't a phenomenon that will be repeated. Any commodity is an inflation hedge because any commodity will approximately match inflation over the long-term. However, stocks generate a considerable risk premium that exceeds inflation. Thanks, Ramin.
"It costs money to hold gold"
:laughs in Monetary Metals:
The suspension of gold/dollar convertibility is only temporary. President Nixon told us so. 😂
Trust the fund manager, ha ha ha. If it isn't in your hand, it isn't yours.
No, you can only give impartial advice on gold if your sponsor is a bullion dealer.
The gold bugs will be out of the woodwork with their “if you don’t hold it you don’t own it” rubbish on this one.
Had 6 Krugerrands 1975...bank held them for me.
Too late
Physically backed but not physically redeemable.
Sprott Physical Gold Trust (and their Silver Trust) is physically redeemable though not nearly as liquid as GLD and the other "paper gold ETFs". It's also a closed-end fund, so somewhat different than the others.
Gold isn't bullish, it's fiat money that is going bearish. The system is collapsing. Because they want it to collapse. If you like sponsoring the bankers (creators of all wars).Buy stocks or keep your money in the bank ,if not ,buy gold
What on earth are you saying? When you say gold coins are not pure enough you are wrong. All sovereign mints ( mints tasked with minting gold coins with their respective countries currency pressed onto the coin ) are 99.99% pure. I feel like you don't fully understand gold making such statements. 99.99% is good enough for every central bank who collectively own many thousands of tons held by every country in the G20. You need to research a little better. There is no such thing as reserves of pure gold that is 100% pure free from impurities from any other element.
Physical is the only way other wise you don’t own it.
Bury it
If you had $250k, which investments would you go for in terms of maximizing returns and mitigating risks? I'm semi-retired and only work 7.5 hours weekly. Looking for opportunities in the market that can fetch me millions, in order to retire comfortably.
yes. now videos after every tom ,dick and harry is long gold. now its time for suckers to jump in . even a corrective move from here will wipe out loads of last minute get rich quick investors.
Nothing like hiding solid gold bars. I love playing the Tom and Jerry game. I won’t fall for the electronic stuff.
The evidence based argument against gold: no cashflow and it relies on a greater fool, so isn't an investment you can rely on.
Thats why I invest in PEWTER ...I own 16 Franklin Mint Civil War Chess Sets ... and many assorted loose pieces ..they keep going up every year in value ...Pewter is the NEW GOLD . .. get in now before its too late ..I am doing well .... check the Ebay Prices ...once Pewter is no longer manipulated, it will soar
Sounds like a rational approach not to buy gold.
I converted all my savings to gold in 2022 because of fear of reckless government borrowing and spending, instigating more wars and neglect of society.
Lol this is an anti gold video. Its not stocks, its money to be saved
Hi @spencerd9325 as I say in the intro it's best to be clear about what gold is and isn't. And also to base those judgments on facts, which I present in this video. As with _any_ investment there are two sides to the argument about whether to incorporate it in your portfolio and I try to present the pros and cons. Thanks, Ramin.
The value of gold is measured in ounces! Not dollars.
Now is the time to sell NOT INVEST!
You cannot compare gold to stocks before and after the end of the Bretton Woods System in 1971. After that decision taken by Nixon to avoid US likely going bankrupt, a sizable allocation in gold (let’s say 10-20% or so) definitely improves risk adjusted return over the long term in any portfolio particularly if one needs periodical withdrawals like a retiree