I've built my own model, but it failed. I mean, the data I used, gave no clear answer of what I should bet. Getting the right data is a serious work and the most important step to profit.
We were in the same spot as you when I published this video two years ago. Since then, we've built backtesting engines and defined "Probability Thresholds" to allow our software to pick the bets from all the value bets identified. This project has expanded a lot now, and it's the foundation for my company, Systematic Sports, which I run with my business partner, Estephe. www.systematicsports.co.uk
Yessir! I've been working on it ever since this video! I built it out into a company with my co-founder Estephe and you can find out more about what this project became on our website. www.systematicsports.co.uk
even if the odds are mathematically worse they need to provide better odds to the other team in order to cover the bets. Lets say statistically team A has 70% and team B has 30% chance of winning. If 90% of people bet team B you can't provide the 30% odds because even if that outcome is less likely you would lose too much money in that unlikely event, so they even up the odds depending on the volume of bets.
The data is the secret sauce (source)! It's not something that I can share publicly unfortunately, but you can find out more about what this project evolved into on the Systematic Sports website: www.systematicsports.co.uk
Its fun making models ,there use to be a brilliant website years ago some math professor posted his models for free ,excel related ,if you want to make money make it easier for yourself than footie.
I didn't make this video to gloat. The entire output of this code that I've written is available on my website for everyone's benefit. There's even snippets of it on my Medium page
@@LiamHartley Hi liam thanks for providing this! But I am unable to locate this on your site unless I am being blind. Reason I ask is I want to replicate this but for my own understanding and for me the best way is to learn through already written code. Many thanks
This is the best thing I have ever watched. Over the past few weeks I have flirted with attempting to make my own algorithm, not quite realising how much needs to be done even with my own limited knowledge of coding. I'll learn as I go I suppose. Great work.
I do (@liamjhartley) but I don't really use it. @liamhartley.co.uk on Instagram is the best place to keep up with me and the bets. I've now bet £1,300 and down about 3% at the moment so it swings in roundabouts! All the bets I've made are on my website :)
Absolutely. I put a video out on my tiktok about this the other day. We’re in the middle of getting ready for the next football season right now! vm.tiktok.com/ZMNDQrUVv/?k=1
@@LiamHartley It would be a great idea to improve the current articles with more info. Including, if possible, further details (even if we have to pay for it, that would be great).
I am working on my own algorithm and want to try it on my own, so I don't watch the video yet. I will come back to it after successfully running a code or after giving up. 😂
Would you have any resources on scraping the bookies odds and then importing the data with python? I know you wont give away the secret sauce of the processing but I'm just looking to get started by getting in the odds for horse racing, have limited java knowledge.
Here’s an article I wrote about scraping lineups from an old data source, you should be able to apply the same principles to bookmakers python.plainenglish.io/how-to-scrape-predicted-lineups-from-fantasy-football-scout-with-python-b11e92ea57f2
Whoa man one of the gratest videos I have ever seen! I learning pyhton right now and this is the type of thing I want to do; Amazing job, you will doing a video explaining how u have done it in python or something?? or if it possible could you show the scrpit or something?? Impressive job man Congrats!!!
You can find some more code snippets on my Medium page: medium.com/@liamjhartley I won't be showing all of my code but I will be explaining how you can learn to build your own in the future!
Great video.The only thing i dont understand is in your site in the category with suggestions for value bets how do i calculate how mutch i have to bet? Lest say my bank is 100$ and in the value bet the Kelly Criterion is 0.50. How do i calculate the amount i have to bet?
Kelly Criterion: F = BP - Q / B , F = percentage of bankroll you should allocate B = payout in terms of odds P = probability of winning Q = probability of losing
We do all of these calculations for you in our new project, Systematic Sports. We use the probability of the outcome that is calculated by our algorithm to generate the value for the Kelly Criterion. Happy to answer any other questions on bankroll management and you can learn more about how this project has evolved here: www.systematicsports.co.uk
nice, i was thinking a sport like basketball might have less variability because number of points is higher vs football where goals scored can be low and have high variability
It’s the % difference between our calculations and the bookies odds. E.g. bookies offer 4.0 and we calculate 2.0 then 4/2 = 100% alpha. Higher alpha indicates more value in the opportunity but not that it’s more or less likely to happen
@@LiamHartley also I wondered if it would be possible for you to put the full game on the betting calculation on your site so that people know they’re looking at the right match and not data from a previous game
Really liked the vid! But just one thing, bookies don't balance their books, it's common for an outcome to result in a large loss. Most errors come from autotraders/model errors!
@@LiamHartley yeah you're right I should have been a bit more explicit, I think most people believe bookies setup odds so that no matter the result of a game they come out with a profit
@@LiamHartley Not at all complaining here, cause this tool has helped me confirm the value i find, but it doesnt seem to up update very often? Also, have you considered adding some calculations for CL?
@@LiamHartley Yeah, im refreshing. But as you can see now on the bundesliga page, last odds update was on 02/09, with games played on the 3rd and 4th. Not too important, just thought i'd let u know. :)
We've got 3,200 players across multiple leagues and seasons to allow for weekly predictions and backtesting. We input new players every transfer window/season. We've also calculated 50,000 outcomes to test our model's accuracy which I'll do a full write up on this summer. There are also 285,000 rows of bookies data and 18,000 value bets identified across all leagues this season.
I've built my own model, but it failed. I mean, the data I used, gave no clear answer of what I should bet. Getting the right data is a serious work and the most important step to profit.
Any updates on this, man? I do agree with your comment above.
We were in the same spot as you when I published this video two years ago. Since then, we've built backtesting engines and defined "Probability Thresholds" to allow our software to pick the bets from all the value bets identified.
This project has expanded a lot now, and it's the foundation for my company, Systematic Sports, which I run with my business partner, Estephe.
www.systematicsports.co.uk
UA-cam is to show how, not to show off. Now I can see why you have less than 1K SUBSCRIBERS. Good luck, I hope your algorithms work for you.
Here’s all my free software and how to videos: ua-cam.com/users/datadrivendecisions0
Is this updated mate? do you have any repo where I can find this?
Yessir! I've been working on it ever since this video!
I built it out into a company with my co-founder Estephe and you can find out more about what this project became on our website.
www.systematicsports.co.uk
Great video!!! Could you explain what you mean by bookies “balancing there books” please?
even if the odds are mathematically worse they need to provide better odds to the other team in order to cover the bets. Lets say statistically team A has 70% and team B has 30% chance of winning. If 90% of people bet team B you can't provide the 30% odds because even if that outcome is less likely you would lose too much money in that unlikely event, so they even up the odds depending on the volume of bets.
Great vid! Could you tell about the data used in the model? There is a source?
The data is the secret sauce (source)! It's not something that I can share publicly unfortunately, but you can find out more about what this project evolved into on the Systematic Sports website:
www.systematicsports.co.uk
Its fun making models ,there use to be a brilliant website years ago some math professor posted his models for free ,excel related ,if you want to make money make it easier for yourself than footie.
Yes, football is definitely a hard sport to get right!
Can you please share your source code??? Please I need it. Good Job anyway! 😃
agreed, no point in making this video to gloat, not cool
I didn't make this video to gloat. The entire output of this code that I've written is available on my website for everyone's benefit. There's even snippets of it on my Medium page
@@LiamHartley Hi liam thanks for providing this! But I am unable to locate this on your site unless I am being blind. Reason I ask is I want to replicate this but for my own understanding and for me the best way is to learn through already written code. Many thanks
@@mars2259 www.liamhartley.co.uk/football
This is the best thing I have ever watched. Over the past few weeks I have flirted with attempting to make my own algorithm, not quite realising how much needs to be done even with my own limited knowledge of coding. I'll learn as I go I suppose. Great work.
Can we gang up and share ideas?
@@peterwhite9553 you still up for it?
@@memegalore257 You guys still working on it? Would love to join the project!
Have you twitter? Great work up 150%!
I do not have Instagram/tiktok but would love to help out!
I do (@liamjhartley) but I don't really use it. @liamhartley.co.uk on Instagram is the best place to keep up with me and the bets. I've now bet £1,300 and down about 3% at the moment so it swings in roundabouts! All the bets I've made are on my website :)
Found you on Tiktok and I think what you’ve done is absolutely class mate! loving the work!
Buen vídeo, Saludos desde Colombia hermano🙌
Bienvenido tío! Mucho gusto
have you considered to do algorithms on other sports like basketball
Absolutely. I put a video out on my tiktok about this the other day. We’re in the middle of getting ready for the next football season right now!
vm.tiktok.com/ZMNDQrUVv/?k=1
There is no way on the earth you are going to beat betting markets with this.
23% return last year 😤
Will you be posting on your site this weekend...saved your site on the weekend before the break so was hoping u be posting first prem week back
Yes! You can expect next days games to be up by 8pm. Follow my IG stories to see when they’re up @liamhartley.co.uk
The bets usually become less profitable the longer they’re up so you wanna get on them ASAP
After 2 years , how about your result ?
Check out: www.systematicsports.co.uk
Season 4 coming soon.
@@LiamHartley It would be a great idea to improve the current articles with more info. Including, if possible, further details (even if we have to pay for it, that would be great).
where can we find your spreadsheet?
The “personal betting log” button on this page www.liamhartley.co.uk/football
I am working on my own algorithm and want to try it on my own, so I don't watch the video yet. I will come back to it after successfully running a code or after giving up. 😂
Good luck! Let me know how it goes :)
Very cool! Is this an implementation of Dixon and Coles (1997)?
No, but that's a great model too!
really searching for a youtuber who can help me with programming and stuff and dang saw the yeezus cover there
yes you are the one
How do you decide how much to bet? Looks really good
I'll do a full video explaining the theory a bit more but this is a good starting place: en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Kelly_criterion
Like to know more
Check out our website to see how this project has evolved!
www.systematicsports.co.uk
What library and method would you use for machine learning?
Nice project, but it seems a losing one! :(
Sum the results on the spreadsheet.
Big losing!
Thank you! Yeah we are down at the moment but the sample size is still quite small so we're pushing on
I'm lost guy's I can't find anything and I'm sure he has a better version now and I just start learning python
All of the latest updates are on my website!
We're still working on it don't worry. It gets more powerful every day.
www.liamhartley.co.uk/football
@@LiamHartley you the man lol
Would you have any resources on scraping the bookies odds and then importing the data with python? I know you wont give away the secret sauce of the processing but I'm just looking to get started by getting in the odds for horse racing, have limited java knowledge.
Here’s an article I wrote about scraping lineups from an old data source, you should be able to apply the same principles to bookmakers
python.plainenglish.io/how-to-scrape-predicted-lineups-from-fantasy-football-scout-with-python-b11e92ea57f2
@@LiamHartley thanks for the reply, for the bookies I would have to scrape but betfair has an API, is that correct? Thanks again
@@connalreilly we use an api for this project but there are websites you can scrape. APIs are generally easier and more stable though
Really happy i found. More content on tiktok?
Unfortunately I got removed from TikTok. So my website, Instagram, Medium and Telegram channels are the best way to stay up to date!
So have you made any money with this model?
We’ll be announcing our recent backtest results with our Season 3 release!
www.systematicsports.co.uk/season-3
what return have you made betting off your predictions sir?
We made 23% last year! You can find our previous and future season performance reports on our new website for this project:
www.systematicsports.co.uk
goood men!!
Hello, I want the code link, is it available please?
The code is not publicly available, but you can see how this project has evolved into Systematic Sports www.systematicsports.co.uk
Whoa man one of the gratest videos I have ever seen! I learning pyhton right now and this is the type of thing I want to do;
Amazing job, you will doing a video explaining how u have done it in python or something?? or if it possible could you show the scrpit or something??
Impressive job man Congrats!!!
You can find some more code snippets on my Medium page: medium.com/@liamjhartley
I won't be showing all of my code but I will be explaining how you can learn to build your own in the future!
Great video.The only thing i dont understand is in your site in the category with suggestions for value bets how do i calculate how mutch i have to bet? Lest say my bank is 100$ and in the value bet the Kelly Criterion is 0.50. How do i calculate the amount i have to bet?
Kelly Criterion: F = BP - Q / B ,
F = percentage of bankroll you should allocate
B = payout in terms of odds
P = probability of winning
Q = probability of losing
We do all of these calculations for you in our new project, Systematic Sports. We use the probability of the outcome that is calculated by our algorithm to generate the value for the Kelly Criterion.
Happy to answer any other questions on bankroll management and you can learn more about how this project has evolved here: www.systematicsports.co.uk
Are you running it again this weekend?
Yeah. Will post on my IG story when they're up instagram.com/liamhartley.co.uk/
Finally found you here
heyyyy
nice, i was thinking a sport like basketball might have less variability because number of points is higher vs football where goals scored can be low and have high variability
Football is definitely one of the harder ones to make a mathematical model for and I'm keen to do other sports once I've really cracked this one!
New football season coming soon!
@@LiamHartley what do you think about making a boxing one?
What the website?
The project has moved to www.systematicsports.co.uk/ !
Hi mate what does the alpha % mean on your bets?
It’s the % difference between our calculations and the bookies odds. E.g. bookies offer 4.0 and we calculate 2.0 then 4/2 = 100% alpha. Higher alpha indicates more value in the opportunity but not that it’s more or less likely to happen
@@LiamHartley appreciate the reply mate just discovered you tonight and really looking forward to following you and your progress :)
@@DanLaidlaw anytime and thank you! Check out my other socials on my website to keep up with the progress!
@@LiamHartley I’ve dropped a follow everywhere bro, when will the other leagues betting be updated on your website?
@@LiamHartley also I wondered if it would be possible for you to put the full game on the betting calculation on your site so that people know they’re looking at the right match and not data from a previous game
great work
Thank you!
Alright Alright Alright!!!
😂
Love the idea of this mate. Smashing it, keep it up
Really liked the vid! But just one thing, bookies don't balance their books, it's common for an outcome to result in a large loss. Most errors come from autotraders/model errors!
Really? I’m confident that bookies will balance their books on occasion to adjust their risk/reward as well as what you’ve mentioned
@@LiamHartley yeah you're right I should have been a bit more explicit, I think most people believe bookies setup odds so that no matter the result of a game they come out with a profit
How often does the output update on your website?
Before every league game over the five major European leagues
@@LiamHartley Not at all complaining here, cause this tool has helped me confirm the value i find, but it doesnt seem to up update very often? Also, have you considered adding some calculations for CL?
@@DjZitify it runs every hour on the half hour right now but you have to refresh the page. How often would you like it to update?
@@DjZitify we’d love to do other leagues and it’s something we’re considering for the future as well as other sports
@@LiamHartley Yeah, im refreshing. But as you can see now on the bundesliga page, last odds update was on 02/09, with games played on the 3rd and 4th. Not too important, just thought i'd let u know. :)
am here huuuuuuuray
Welcome!
How much data do you use? A team can completely change between seasons, do you primarily use the current seasons data?
We've got 3,200 players across multiple leagues and seasons to allow for weekly predictions and backtesting. We input new players every transfer window/season.
We've also calculated 50,000 outcomes to test our model's accuracy which I'll do a full write up on this summer. There are also 285,000 rows of bookies data and 18,000 value bets identified across all leagues this season.
Share the code fam
Great video! Looking forward to seeing what's to come
Cheers!