Peter Zeihan: The Next Chapter in the Changing Global Economic Order and Why Geography Matters...
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- Опубліковано 26 лют 2023
- Subscribe for free on all podcast platforms: link.chtbl.com/guidingassets
Geopolitics, demographic trends, and geography are re-shaping the world order and driving changes in global economic power and the free trade system we have known in the recent past. Our host, Mike Wallberg, CFA, sits down with geopolitical strategist, Peter Zeihan, to discuss his new book, The End of the World is Just the Beginning. In this wide-ranging conversation, Zeihan maps out what the next world order will look like, explores how global shifts will shape investment opportunities and risks over the short and medium term, and discusses why inflation is rooted in the labor situation and is likely to persist longer than many expect.
Thank you for listening, if you enjoyed this episode please tell a friend and be sure to leave a review. To find the full line-up of CFA Institute podcasts, visit cfainst.is/podcasts.
There isn't a video of Peter on UA-cam that I didn't listen to! I just can't get enough.
Same here
Thank you for posting this!
A little of comments seem to be reacting to the (laughably incorrect) assertion that the current US regime is nationalist. This is indicative of a flaw in his model but I think you are incorrectly identifying that flaw.
Peter (most geopolitical thinkers) base their models on national interest. So he correctly identifies that the institutions and systems created by the Cold War underlies the international system. He correctly recognizes that it long ago ceased serving our national interest.
The error is in thinking that Washington is motivated by national interest. The beneficiaries of the international system are a constituency. A very wealthy constituency. And even if they cannot vote constituencies will hire lobbyists and petition their government.
THIS!
Agreed
Another massive flaw is his idea that governments can be trusted with regulating information. The curse of governance is that politics attracts those inherently unsuited to public office, and likewise repels those most suited.
Reading past comments, I have one thing to say. You only become as successful as Peter when you specialize in something and be an expert in that field! Do you realize how much he had to study to be the Leading expert in his field? Not just an expert but a leading expert. Even if he was raised with money and parents paid for college. He still had to for years to know every county's history, current events, and future plan for years. I wish I could be this intelligent. So don't hate.
You nailed it!
Best…
too bad he's wrong.
Yes he also gets well paid for giving speech's to some of the top buissnesmen in the world . They don't just go to see anyone and pay for it
@@Zumpage Ho Chi Minh and Mao Zedong did not get well paid.
So, sucker, how did they win hm?
@@QuizmasterLaw please specify china troll
This man is brilliant- I have shared his vids and books with select people who are worthy - they have to actually care about the world around them!
Agreed. When I first heard him it was like many pieces of a puzzle came together, and I could see an image I couldn’t see nearly as clearly before. When you know, you know.
You have to have already done a lot of independent research on geopolitics to know if he is legit. Those who haven’t done the research can’t tell the difference between him and anyone else who talks on these subjects, and he comes off as another overconfident predictor of doom.
He's also wrong on everything political. Incredibly biased which makes him one sided and therefore blind to the truth. I.e. Biden family sold u.s. owned lithium mines to China in 2020-2021.
Biden family has received more than 10 million in Chinese payments through over 20 Biden owned corporations while he was v.p.
What evidence is there where Biden is America first?? Biden has always been pro w.e.f. pro one world order. He is a puppet.
This man is brilliant. A propagandizing player who while not talking politics, is actually right. His logic is sound, another reason he is wrong about politics. Politics is anything but logical. If you disagree, do you not see this fact in the party you dislike most?? If so, what makes your party special / different??
Thank you! Great questions!
Economic investigator Frank G Melbourne Australia is still watching this very informative content cheers Frank
@25m “we are not used to thinking of geography….” TRUE - a problem, but remedially.
CORRECTION : remediable.
Peter Zeihan takes into account numerous factors in presenting assessments.
Keep thinking that… time will tell!
At the end I thought he said 'Mark Wahlberg' and I almost spilled my coffee trying to rewind.
His retirement plan must be doing a lot better than mine.
“Germany”
So Norm MacDonald was right to be most worried…
It almost sounded like the host was AI.
This is the first video I've heard silliness from Peter, sucks. Literal detachment from reality. It happens, the dudes a genius and is a great speaker.
The Biden bit made me lmfao, t f 😁
You can see exactly why us is declining rapidly just by listening to this guy! Where are all the good brains this great country used to have???
Peter highlights trade allows more trade, and yet brics keep belly aching even though south Africa is allowed to sell organes to other countries so that should be acknowledged
wishing the worst for others is unworthy
I don't see Peter as "predicting" anything. I regard Peter Zeihan as explaining what is going on and reiterating the conclusion anybody comes to in lieu of the information he's provided.
You can disagree with his predictions (I do with a few), but every new book has several big predictions. His current biggest is that America will stop policing the world's oceans causing the collapse of globalization. That is not a conclusion the majority of analysts are pushing.
The reason he's so hot now is because several predictions he made in his books 8+ years ago came true in the last few years (Russia invading Ukraine, one child policy failure/Chinese demographic crash and inflation caused by baby boomers retirement). He also got some things wrong (like Russia taking most of Ukraine in a year).
Personally, I think he gives too much credit to statistical data for places like China and the Middle East. We've seen too often how corrupt regimes publish false data so any predictions based on them are suspect. He got how well Russia would do in the war because he believed the military data they put out pre-war.
@@derekasato9035 Like I said. He's not predicting anything. He's relaying the data he has and reiterates the conclusions anybody with that information would come to on their own.
As far as analysts deciding America won't police oceans globally being a preposterous claim. We're not policing global oceans. We can't. Our Navy is not equipped to do it. Like he says we need 800 destroyers to do that and we have seventy, and half are the defense ring of the super carriers.
It's like I said. He's not predicting anything. In the case of US Navy ships. We can be in 12 geographical areas at once IF all the battle groups are at sea and at any given time half are in port, generally.
Predicting how well Russia would do in a war they don't have to have air superiority to support it or a logistically practical methodology of traveling to say, this continent, and can just walk to where they're going, their performance is nothing less than should be expected.
@@ElimiXebian Wait, so you agree with him that in the next 5 years globalization will collapse and that China will just break up in the next 10 years?
Yes I'm a Zeihan addict.
Using debt as money in a fractional reserve system, is one of the cruelest forms of fraud the world has ever seen.
It's not as bad as inflation.
@@RogueReplicant Fractional reserve banking and fiat currency inevitably lead to catastrophic inflation.
I have an MBA, speak fluent Spanish, English, and Portuguese. I am a veteran of the US Navy, and have 12 years of experience in defense finance, procurement, acquisition, data analytics, and program management. Would love to network with any of the folks here.
we do have a model it occurred after the Plague in Europe, 30% of Europe's population disappeared and the state put caps on wages
Europe's population recovered from the Plague because they were agrarian economies and had lots of kids.
great point. furthermore, china's aging population really isn't the equivalent of the black death
@@chrishooge3442 still takes decades to recover, last I checked children take years to grow. This is the situation China is in if the young have 8 children each they can recover like Europe after the plague, which was also from Asia lol..
Do you know that natural gas prices in Europe are the same now as in 2015?
Love the guy so far, but why did he say Biden was an improvement over Trump and Obama?
He cares more about Foreign Policy so look at his argument from that angle.
Obama: no trade deal, just dance around. Obamacare is domestic policy, and to Peter, it is a disaster.
Trump: trade war is bad, but NAFTA 2.0 is rated as brilliant from Peter. Also he like Trump's Trade Representative - Robert Lighthizer on hammering on Japan, South Korea's security deal (pays more for American troop present)
Biden: take Trump's trade war to next level by putting them into actual policy (can be good or bad). Inflation Reduction Act even though a domestic policy, it is actually a industrial re-shoring policy. Peter always advocates for re-shoring. Also, he dares to take a huge political loss by pulling all American troops out of Afghan - a move only dreamt of by Obama because he was too chickened to pull. Peter loves American Shale, so pulling out all American troops in Middle East is always his stance
So ranking: Obama < Trump < Biden (to Peter)
Surprised me too… I’m not a partisan but I’m looking at the border crisis, record inflation, insane medical mandates, the draining of the emergency oil reserves, the Nordstream attack and all of our money going to Ukraine/war and the only thing I can compliment Biden on is “no mean tweets!” 🤷♀️
Cuz they didnt like talking to people, according to PZ.
Good analysis of history. Unfortunately not so good on the future due to his political views. The USA is defending into a Biden created recession, with cities in great disarray.
One critique: The term "populism," especially when juxtaposed to "democracy," is imprecise. For the most part, "populism" seems to be used by people who favor democratic elections in theory but seek to disparage and/or delegitimize the outcome of a particular election.
What did he mean by -competition for people at the entry level has never been this fierce?
had me until (talking about President Biden) "He shows up. He tries to be Presidential" (paraphrased)
He doesn’t even know he’s president.
17.16 - "...Scandinavian...has energy from the North Sea...". Only the Norwegians of the scandinavians has oil and gas from the North Sea.
I agree and have learned much from Mr Zeihan but I don’t understand his positive support of President Biden and disdain for Elon Musk owning Twitter. Please have him explain. Thanks !
Sort of. Kind of.
Germany has been apologizing for the last 70 years. So, don't expect them to take any initiative in international Politics, even if it is expected of them. The Germans have a love/hate relationship with the Russians and that is how far their international policy goes. The rest is either economical, or EU initiatives, which after Brexit, is mainly French politics. The federalization process of the EU was a precondition of the Bush (Sr.) admin in order to embed a unified Germany deeply within Europe.
If you watched multiple videos with this guy, you will notice that there is not a single video where he doesn't say some jaw dropping dramatic prediction which makes me really suspicious of him.
no doubt organized labor could be a kingmaker. but organized labor spends most of its time trying just to survive. people talk about unioning and are fired . period
If Peter is so good, then why hasn't the establishment absorbed him? Answers on a postcard.
Market efficiency theory. If the market is sef efficient, why do we need CFA at all?
One of the very few people who can make statistics interesting. Trouble is if you're Brit, like me, it makes you want to jump off a cliff.
@17m, YES - on the globe, the most optimistic future belongs to SE Asia.
God peter z must have a billion yak episodes, in 333 years ancient aliens digging in the remans of the earth civilizations they will think 🤔 peter was everywhere for hundreds of years lifespan
Labors looks at emigration and the right to work laws needing removed from states that have them. Right to work laws takes work from the qualified local labor and hands it over to foreign labor at well below a living wage. These companies that use low skilled tradesmen to do the work hands over poorly made and dangerous equipment when built or repaired. Do you want Colombians building nuclear plants for half the labor costs when labor costs on a nuclear plant is less then 1% of the cost to build it because material and fueling is 99% of the cost. Labor is the only place to squeeze out more profit on the bid.
Not sure if you saw the article about Russia’s Frey push to recruit Americans and Europeans to migrate. 7,000,000 is the “number” that was advertised. The article made clear that ethnicity matters, “whites only”… Of course the article was not pro Putin and a “telling” comment in the article stated an additional migration detail… BYO - toilet. Hmmm…
Canada and some Scandinavian Nations have already commenced efforts to invite migration. Interesting isn’t it…
Demographics will eschew migration and such will be exasperated by the “acts of man”. Such is clearly evident in Russia’s war on Ukraine. Millions of Ukrainian refugees my never return. The famines that will surely result from disruption of grain supplies and fertilizers from Russia and Ukraine will trigger mass migration.
This disruption will be felt World wide… 1st level impacts = the horror of starvation. 2nd level impacts = desperate refugees. Now… some folks imply warnings from PZ about this pending result of Russian aggression is just fear mongering. I suggest that sort of sensationalism is owned by the major media outlets. Soon… all of them will jump on board the “coverage” of the human suffering. The damage is already done, and the resulting effects can’t be avoided. The poorest of areas will be the first victims and refugees. Many will perish… Ironically, the perceived “poorest areas” are locations where gold, diamonds, and oil are produced. Problems is… that stuff is inedible…
This is not a short term matter. So where do you think these desperate folks will go? How many “richer” Nation States in their part of the world will reject this inevitable mass migration event? What then?
If you thought that seeing migrants bussed from the southern border to other locations was funny or sad, just imagine plane and ship loads embarking for the US… Remember Neil Diamond’s “immigrant song”? The chorus - “We coming to America”…
If it isn’t clear yet, it will be soon… “build the wall” would not serve to stop mass immigration. The advocates promoting the lies of “the replacement theory” are going to implode…
Let’s just assume PZ is correct, his data is correct, and world wide demographics (along with impacts of tragic leadership - notably Xi & Putin, climate change, and the end of Globalization) will render and reveal North America as “The Promised Land”.
Also assume that a “Thermo Nuclear” demise is not on the calendar… The build out of the industrial base in North American could be like “Happy Days are here again”.
The problem is… we need a whole lot of humanity to build, operate, and maintain the new and resurrected industry within our borders, serving the needs of the world.
Per PZ, there will likely be migration from all over the world. Europeans that have engineered and manufactured fabulous machinery will be part of the eventual demographics driven mass migration, and highly desired employees.
Seems to me border security and migration policy could be or should be a high priority for our nation. Properly conceived and implemented, this could be the single largest “industry” in the nation. It will take a lot of high tech innovation and people to buildout, operate, and maintain. We don’t have the Human Resources in America to execute the “Infrastructure projects” approved in 2022.
Labor needs to be out front, moving forward with organizing instead of aligning with those that promote the “replacement theory”.
Beats the hell out of “extinction”…
BEST
Nice
Zeihan's great at understanding supply lines and geography, but unfortunately his political side of things is shaky at best. It's clear by how he phrases things that when he talks about certain aspects of the political scene, he's not really telling you what he thinks the truth is, but what his current and potentially future clients want to hear; after all, his bread and butter are the presentations that he does in front of industry and government figures, so if he doesn't say things publicly to stroke their ego, they might go with a different analyst who will.
It's unfortunate because it calls his overall credibility into question, but I suppose when you're on the other side and you've got yourself and your team's financial future to worry about, little things like embellishing your patrons and diminishing their rivals is to be expected.
we are ethnic Chinese, we are going to ditch Chinese, and kids are going to learn Spanish..
Peter has a healthy dose of clickbait and fear porn going on, but he has a clear view of the forces at play. There is never mention of mitigating factors such as human ingenuity in the face of existential threat, or the productivity boost that technology such as AI could bring. I think the reality is closer to what Patrick Boyle sees. Entertaining, but extreme. I will keep watching Peter's videos.
I agree ☝🏻 the one issue I take with PZ is his marketing strategy of stupid titles everyday “THIS IS THE END I TOLD YOU SO!” However I don’t judge as much I used to because i understand he’s a business man. Clickbait = Paying the bills. So he’s an entrepreneur, and thus I cannot judge him for simply playing the YT game..:)
Btw I checked out Patrick Boyle YT channel. 👌🏻 very interesting 🤔
i think that's more due to the fact that he only forecasts on data that is available NOT on future speculative developments e.g. I work in Biotech and there are some really interesting developments we're working on extending human lifespans and effectively reversing the aging process but its going to be at least 10 years in the future that we start to roll that out at scale. Likewise he deliberately doesn't account for cultural factors e.g. Every ethnic Ukrainian I know is brushing up their language skills to go back to the motherland once the war is over and rebuild. That's not an insignificant number in the US, Canada and Australia.
He fails to take into account a lot of things...
These words don't sound like Peter's words.
He sounds different
i thought it was just sped up.. but he has said a few times that he never gives financial advice..
@@LoscoeLad his voice sounds different
Low-T.
@@Orson2u lol
@@Orson2u I don’t don’t understand can you pleas say again
Great on lots of stuff total shit on COVID and Ukraine... Hope that it is only bad info sourcing that causes this.
To be clear I listen to a lot of PZ and have been a reader for 4 or 5 years. I am making a general statement not specifically pointed at this mini pod
Love Peter but he is giving the same speech over and over🎉🎉
Obama should not be lumped with trump. Hello Biden basically continued Obama politics. Trump and Obama are not the same.
Too many "experts" in our age. He sounds good, but there are big pieces he is missing. The push in this country for Neo-Marxism can not be ignored. He lost me when he praised Biden. I'd have more respect if he praised the people surrounding & holding up Biden. Biden just happens to be standing there.......
Peter approving of Biden ruins his credibility.
Expanding industrialization with a proven socialist Mexican president? I don’t understand. Mexico is going in the same direction as VeneZuela, Brazil and now Colombia. And it is not industrialization and certainly, not massive. How is the guest coming to this conclusion ?
Because all you read is propaganda
Mexican infrastructure is actually pretty good, especially in auto manufacturing. Also, this semi-socialist president is on the way out.
Biden hahaha 10% to the big guy
I know right! "Shows up every day and talks to people." -- Wahahahahahahahahaaaa!!!!
God, I would hate to be Peter's kid. Tells his wife lets make some farm equipment. I would assume not all wars started over population alone also.
You mean husband? Peter has a husband, he’s homosexual which means he likes to s*ck d-ck
Peter is gay. He has no wife or kids.
Youd be right. He also never said that
He's gay.
@@user-ln4gd6hx7emakes sense. The way he pronounced certain words definitely gave that vibe off.
Biden good talking pres? Our Freedoms " don't worry about it? Love peter but not his political views here.
economic instigator Peter lol
I agree with Peter, Biden is massively underrated in how skillfully he is reengineering American success. The production plants are moving back to the US in an unprecedented way. Biden’s ability to work across the isle at home and geopolitically is amazing. Biden is crushing Putin right before our eyes and not losing a soldier in the process. I underestimated President Biden but he will go down in history as the man who saved America.
Not just that but he's made us friends with our allies in indo pacific again. Japan is rearming. We just got new airbase in Philippines, Australia just got nuclear subs. Stuff is happening
Finally someone noticed
@Laci Peter biden will go down in history as a very underappreciated POTUS. Kinda like Eisenhower
You mean whoever is calling the shots in the background lol
@DaveTheBasha are you dumb? He's the one who negotiated the bills that democrats passed. They literally had over 60 meetings on record in front of cameras. You MAGA are so dumb. Biden is one of the most successful presidents on legislation alone. Hate him if you want doesn't matter
He sounds like he god sore throat
ruh roh China.
🥸🥸🥸FAKE expert😝😝😝
😱😱🇺🇲🇬🇧🇦🇺🇨🇦🇯🇵🇪🇺 lead by 🥳🐷🤡🐒🍌🍌🍌🍌😒😒😒😒😒🙏🙏🙏🙏🙏🥸🥸🤞
What a Load.....
@112:00 ~ That's the problem of being politically biased, when you are predicting the future.
You are pretty damn good at history. But, as we close in on the present, the political bent
is more noticeable. I distrust Peter's estimation of the socialists now in power in America.
Socialists do not like to give up power, and they have both the big corporations backing them,
and experienced voter fraud cadres in the big cities. The key question is whether or not
Republicans can win another election with the widespread voter fraud. And politicians are
bought on the cheap. Corporations still plan to expand in China. They still want open borders.
Corporations will do any corrupt thing to make certain there is not another Republican President.
That translates into a declining America, because a declining America cannot afford a military,
A weakened America is the intentional plan of the socialist to bring about the socialist one world order.
no, all that words for nothing. China doesnt have people to give us cheap labor. Look at their minimum wage now. Its cheaper to produce in Mexico than in China.
@@ken1d _ Slave labor is very cheap. And the Chinese market, measuring in the billions is what the corporations lust for. If Mexico is so cheap, why doesn't Apple go there? Mexico has problems with Drug Cartels. The drug cartels are blood thirsty. If they want something from you, they let you know... they know where your children go to school. And every once in a while, they chop up bodies and dispose of them in public places. And the drug cartels control the border. Would you want to do business in Mexico? That's another thing the Peter doesn't talk about.
this is one of the most politically biased comments I have ever read.
@@ryanshout8652 - Let's dare to get specific. What is the 1st thing in my comment that you disagree with?
@@mu99ins - Tagging the current American administration as socialists, shows your absolute ignorance on your own country politics, further more, it wouldn’t surprise us if you equate socialism with communism which are two complete different ideologies, as morons in America often do. The United States of America is a democratic republic, one of the oldest uninterrupted democracies in the Western hemisphere, which almost came to an end on January 6th, 2021, with the failed Coup d’état by dictator wannabe Donald Trump and his treasonous supporters. Fortunately the separate branches of government stood against such act of treason (talking about not wanted to give up the power). I was born and raised in a communist country (East Germany), luckily for my family, we emigrated to the United States, where our life, our liberty and the pursuit of happiness is protected. You have no idea what’s like to live in a communist country under a dictatorship of the likes of the Kremlin, an autocratic institution which Donald Trump praises. You, sir, have no clue of what you’re talking about. Let go of your ego and your hate towards your fellow Americans who may think different than you.
I did a google search on dumb American geopolitical analyst, this is the first recommendation. It's not wrong.
Trump didnt show up to work but biden did? Does someone know what hes on? Id love to have some.
Biden trying to be president was a joke right?
"Peter Zeihan is wrong: Here's Why"
Why? The guy is 70% right just go back Listen to him ten years ago. He's not wrong Because you want him to be wrong.
I see you on every PZ video. You don't add any value.
@@alansnyder8448 helping ignorant fanbois of the cult make fewer errors is adding value o genius
And have a no opinion really adds value. Just don't say he's wrong tell me why he's wrong. You just don't like america and you want things to happen the way you wanted to happen. You bring 0 to the table absolutely nothing.
@@QuizmasterLaw Ya'll shoulda had more kids.
Why do you hate Elon? You only think you know him. Your uninformed disdain is going to cost you listeners. It already has. You need to lay off your punching bag mentality on all things Musk...
To say that Sleepy Joe "comes to work and actually tries to be the President" has to be the biggest joke Ive ever heard.I enjoy listening to Peter,but he obviously hasnt been following the facts about our cognitively impaired leader.He barely shows up,and spends most of his time in Delaware,and is about as transparent as a brick wall.give me a break bruh.
Imagine being this intelligent and thinking Joe Biden is a better president than Donald Trump.
Did I hear you say Biden is the best President over Obama and Trump ?
Ffs, I thought you might be intelligent.
Bye, bye
I liked you Peter and thought I had alot of respect for you. But you just said Biden is doing a good job..... I know now that I have to take everything thing you say with a grain of salt. I'm sorry bro but you just lost trust and credibility with me. Your analysis of alot of it is reasonable but your bent for the left has me questioning everything you say now.
"I liked and respeced you, but you said something I disagree with so now you're just a leftist stooge"
Bruh. 💀💀
Well Peter Zeihan's gay, so if you want him to like your fu@k face party, maybe all those anti-LGBTQ laws in red states aren't the greatest tactic.
What a dummy
@Erlend Rooth if anyone thinks Biden is doing a good job or anyone in his administration is doing a good job,they need to have their heads examined. And most far leftists I've ever met have needed to have their heads examined. No commonsense whatsoever.
Hahaha oh man right wingers have no sense.
Zeihan is a grifter. I wish UA-cam would stop promoting his click-bait garbage. They're continually putting his crap into my recommendations even though I downvote each one, mark the channel as "Don't Recommend" and nuke all trace of it from my history. They keep coming back. I bet there's money involved. The sure mark of some sort of scam.
It's all organic. But, Question: Who did Zeihan grift from? He is very original.
I can't help but notice that critics never explain what they think Peter is wrong on
Price to pay for not proactively managing the human population. To reach the 1st billion, it took from the beginning of humanity till 1900. So it took nearly 500,000 years or more for the human population to get the 1st billion. Since 1900, we have added another 6 billion and counting. So we added another 6 billion in just 121 years? Considering a finite amount of resources (including air and water) and land, what makes one think there will be no adverse impact of continued population growth?
@@russozelinsky - Good point, let’s remember that people didn’t live longer lives, 200 years ago, must people died before 50, only the wealthy lived longer, which weren’t the majority, also nations went to war with one another on a larger scale more often than nowadays, we had the 30 year war, the 100 year war, it was constantly war, not to mention famine, pandemics like the Black Death, medicine wasn’t advanced as today’s. This is a good time to be alive.
When you comment you are informing the algorithm that you are engaging with the content. BTW...how is he wrong?