Thanks Mr Odd for another great video. Also Nio’s car sales in some way can also grow exponentially as 80% of Nio owners will buy another vehicle from Nio and owners share with family and friends.
Great stuff, mr Odd, beautiful video 🙏 As a swapper for nearly six months (former supercharger), there is no going back. It's like going down to river after our grandparent's experienced the washing machine. Why do it the old way? Waste that time? Get dirty? Discussing who's next in line? Spend 3-5 min @ a PSS for 90 % plus SoC, it's just unheard-of 🔋🔋 People ask me why I don't worry about the battery, swap "my" battery with someone else's? If there's one EV where you don't worry about battery health, it's NIO. And to answer the question, when I swap "my" battery with someone else's, it's as worrying and emotional as when you're swapping your bbq propane tank. Couple of minutes, couple of bucks, bye-bye, everybody's happy and let's hit the road in no time 💯
Thank you for the nice words. You will always find people who reject new concepts. Especially elderly or rich. But, data shows the battery swap is becoming a great business regardless what other say.
Battery swapping is a innovative approach to charging electric vehicles that involves exchanging depleted batteries for fully charged ones at dedicated swapping stations. This method offers several benefits that can have a significant impact on EV costs: 1. **Reduced Upfront Costs**: By decoupling the cost of the battery from the vehicle, battery swapping eliminates a significant portion of the upfront cost of purchasing an electric vehicle. This makes EVs more affordable and accessible to a larger audience. 2. **Lower Cost of Ownership**: Battery swapping can also lower the overall cost of owning an EV by eliminating the need for expensive battery replacements or repairs over time. Swapped batteries are typically well-maintained and regularly serviced, reducing the risk of costly maintenance issues. 3. **Increased Resale Value**: Since the battery is not owned by the vehicle owner, the resale value of the EV may increase as the buyer does not have to consider the cost of an aging battery. This can make second-hand EVs more appealing in the market. 4. **Improved Efficiency**: Battery swapping reduces the time needed to charge an EV, providing a quick and convenient alternative to traditional charging methods. This can lead to increased productivity for users and a more efficient use of their time. 5. **Enhanced User Experience**: The convenience of battery swapping stations located at strategic points can improve the overall user experience of owning an electric vehicle. Users no longer need to plan their routes around charging stations or wait for their vehicle to charge. 6. **Scalability and Flexibility**: Battery swapping technology can be scaled up and adapted to different vehicle models and brands, providing a flexible solution for EV manufacturers and users. This scalability can drive down costs through economies of scale. 7. **Environmental Impact**: By enabling a faster transition to electric vehicles, battery swapping can contribute to reducing greenhouse gas emissions and combating climate change. The sustainability and efficiency of battery swapping can have a positive impact on the environment. Overall, the implementation of battery swapping in the electric vehicle industry has the potential to significantly impact EV costs by making ownership more affordable, efficient, and sustainable. As the technology continues to evolve and advance, battery swapping could play a vital role in accelerating the adoption of electric vehicles and shaping the future of sustainable transportation.
Hello Odd guy, The progress in NIO in deliveries looks like just now, that we are able to hold higher monthly deliveries. According to Mr.P April deliveries being higher was only from BAAS policy charges done in February!! The sub brand announcement, One big swapping partner announcement, & the new updated '24 models will all be good for NIO in the very short term.. All of those auto shows in China recently all have had very nice showings & as a result May deliveries are expected to crack the 20k/mo. Level. So to see NIO at $5.50 range depending on your viewpoint is a blessing or a curse!! For the people getting in now obviously is a blessing, & for us investors being into NIO longer seems like a curse.. Feel your pain odd guy..
Amazing presentation. Can u estimate the franchising and licensing fees already collected by Nio. I expect positive cash flow in the upcoming quarterly reports.
I've been on the "cursed" side of this equation with other stocks, but now I'm on team "blessing" as I have just started my position in Nio. My recent trading friend brought this stock to my attention, and now I'm in love! I also live in China btw. My friend unfortunately is still waiting to break even, while I can start green from the get go! Feels good!
Peter most have averages above 15 possibly 20, but Nio can run up quickly very quickly. I expect once huge demand circa 25K plus profit comes Nio goes to $30+ very quick. 2025 $30 -$50
@@EnglandUK007 As we know an awful lot can happen in a year or 2. Profitability will be the first big hurtle, US expansion will be another big hurtle probably 2x or 3x as high as the Profitability hurtle imho.. The US right now is/seems very hostile towards China atm. So this is more of a distant dream than a reality.. NIO should lay off all US based employees to save money.. But, obviously I don't know very much vs. The NIO management on these things 100%.
You are one of the big reasons I invest in Nio, of course I do my job research on the company and I am responsible for my own actions and I follow the company every day. And I am sure that Nio is the one even if it returns to the dollar. Thank you for having you. We will all celebrate in the future soon.
Mr Odd, probably one of your best videos to date. Since I first heard of battery swapping I knew this had the potential to be a complete game changer. Thank you for all you do and thank you for always giving us your honest opinion.
Great stuff today Mr. Odd.....love to know how much money NIO makes off the grid power yearly too ....this stock is going parabolic in the next year......Wheels up 🛩🛩🛩
Thank you for sharing this information. How many battery swaps per day must a NIO battery swap station perform to become profitable (swaps breakeven)? In my view, calculation should probably include initial costs, anual fixed costs, costs per swap and revenue per swap.
Great presentation, thank you! Couldn't agree more, it's only the beginning! And I think the pace will accelerate even more with the introduction of new swap station models, for example dual (or later even more) with bigger pools of batteries can be stacked and the capacity usage improved while maintaining better quality of service, availability of charged batteries, minimizing waiting times etc. Trunking efficiency improvements. Add to that some stations with unidirectional drive in & out without reversing and hence speeding up the process, and we have our future "petrol stations". Plus serving cars from other manufacturers with battery swap partnerships.
I use CHAT GPT to get an idea of how big will be NIO Batterie Swap, and here is the reply. NIO Battery Swabs are a revolutionary product designed to improve the ease and efficiency of swapping electric vehicle batteries. The swabs are portable, self-cleaning tools that allow for quick and seamless battery swaps in electric vehicles, eliminating the need for time-consuming charging. This concept has the potential to transform the way electric vehicles are powered, making battery swapping a convenient and practical solution for users. The idea of NIO Battery Swabs has the potential to disrupt the electric vehicle industry and significantly enhance the adoption and usability of electric vehicles on a larger scale.
Great Video. I have a 7 year old Tesla S. I have the same battery with only 225 miles range. I am stuck with my battery. Every electric car in the world, except NIO, is stuck with their original battery. Their cars are slowly devaluing. They are STUCK with their battery. When they eventually buy a new battery, they will spend 15-30K for a new battery from the manufacturer that has a monopoly on prices and this is done every 8-12 years. Technology changes yearly with longer range batteries. NIO is a bargain at this level. Swapping is a huge advantage. Go NIO …
Well, the counter argument is: cars in average only last 17 years. The average battery can sustain that. Though what you will never have is new batt technology in old EVs. Possible only with NIO.
I don’t want to keep for 10 plus years my original battery range. My 7 year battery has a range of less the 225 miles; your asking me to keep my same battery range for another 5 years. No way, NIO now has a battery range of 600 miles…go NIO
Great video thank you for your analysis I'm an old Industrial Engineer after you pointed it out to me I think you are correct which really excites me about the future of battery swap where can this thing go
The number of battery swap is a representation of how many Nio cars that are on the road. So in 2024, you don’t have just 2024 sales that are swapping, but also 2018, 2019, 2020…. So yes it will grow steady until there are as many cars that get off the road (end of life) as new ones on the road. But the thing that comes to mind is how many swap stations will Nio need to suffice demand. It’s not like selling software, they need the infrastructure to support demand…
I once checked the EV sales of NIO partners. We soon have 500k NIO on the road. In a few years with the Salesforce of adopting partners about 6M a year ( it was about that number if I remember correctly)we will have an epic scaling system with millions of cars. I really don't get why people don't have that vision. It's not rocket science to see
Plus NIOs will last much longer than any other car ever (not just EVs). The growing fleet will bring constant revenue through the swap tech. Conventional car manufacturers only earn money by selling expensive replacement parts. That's why a new manufacturer like NIO has a hard time. Because there is no fleet yet that you can earn money with. Now NIO won't be dependent on the repair part business but will make high quality cars that will last for long time instead. They will earn money by selling power. Since they will be able to sell power cheaper than any other competitor soon people will understand that NIOs are premium and at the same time very cheap to run. They have the chance to throw all other premium brands from their podests once the masses understand how it works and how cheap they can drive a premium vehicle. I just saw a German car review where they compares the NIO ET5 with a BMW M340 Diesel. The car testers did not fully comprehend NIOs model and so the BMW won. Once NIO is rolling out the 150 kWh battery the Diesel has no advantage anymore. Imagine: you can drive 7+ hours and then refill fully automatic in under 4 minutes. No other car can do that. NIOs future is great if they continue this way.
@marcusfleuti2672 sorry I have been busy lately, and haven't had the chance to reply. I certainly agree with your comments. The fact the a German review is made for the ET5 is a positive news to Nio.
@@TheOddInvestor There's lots of German reviews about NIO lately. They are mixed. Some are very good, some are critizising that the model is too complex (buy/rent the car, BAAS, Swapping... people don't understand how it works). Then there's issues with like SIXT who rents out NIOs but has no contract with NIO for battery swap and people are stranded in front of the stations. Which is very bad marketing for NIO even though it's not their fault. I think NIO has a hard time in Germany. Especially because if you buy a NIO without the battery and use BAAS, you cannot upgrade/downgrade the battery. For example: You got the car with a 75 kWh battery. So the car registration papers are issued for 75 kWh. Which disallows NIO to swap a 100 kWh battery into this vehicle. Some people who bought a NIO did not know that and are now stranged with the small battery. The EU law has to change but this can take a while. Until then, the big benefit of battery swap is basically inexistent in the EU. Very stupid. And the media is babbling about that making NIO look like a stupid Chinese startup brand and battery swap to be something totally unnecessary. NIO does a lot of things wrong in the EU market and at the moment it seems, that they cannot really solve it.
That would be logical to conclude that battery swap data can be collected daily by NIO. However it was once mentioned that a swap station needs to do more than 60 swaps a day to be profitable. What makes the battery swap a cloudy business to evaluate profitability is the hundreds of thousands of free battery swaps given to customers as incentives to buy NIO evs. William Li may have commented on this in one of his media presentation. He may have alluded that the scaling up of swapping will make it more profitable. I would not be surprised to see the swap partners change the name of the swap stations to avoid giving free swaps to NIO owners, while other EV non NIO models have to pay. The free swaps for NIO owners must surely be detrimental for partnership considerations by other .manufacturers.
Mr Odd, I've been a master black belt in Lean six sigma for many years the stats tools you refer too are used when data is available as in historic, Wall st use real time like design of experiments in that the factors which there are multiple are parameters in which the algorithms are set using real time live data to predict the outcome. That's why Wall st always wins, probability 99.99%. Every outcome is measured and predictable, retail are kinda guessing at best.
I have been in this stock for a looong time and am very disappointed in it's progress due to the shorting! I would like to see daylight but don't know when we can overcome the shorting! I think that with a huge float they can play as desired, I hope I'm wrong!!
for some time now I have been logging at 930 am and keeping a log of swaps and battery swap stations and I see things like swaps starting to go up much faster then a few months prior , like more swaps per day , this is a good thing , what i am loacking is partners they have aquired on builds , I believe the live swap map is only for Nio and not partners so I think they are gen3 only , can you answer if the live map where it shows swaps is also caculation the partners swap stations , I think William li is unlke Elon mushk which boasts about new technology where as William LI is quiet or does not tell us things , I also believe China ia more competetive which is why Nio is hush hush so competors do not steal any technology , I do have more faith in Nio lately
Once partnerships/ franchise start battery swaps & Baas is fully running with Sub brands your battery swap chart will J curve for sure 100%. thnx Odd investor Not long til your thesis statement will be proven correct in mid to late 2025? Or early 2026 when the party 🥳🎉 is in full swing for NIO & battery swapping $$$
Amazing presentation
I just love it
Thank you always
You are very welcome 🙏
Thanks Mr Odd for another great video. Also Nio’s car sales in some way can also grow exponentially as 80% of Nio owners will buy another vehicle from Nio and owners share with family and friends.
You are welcome. Yes, Nio word of mouth is probably the best
Great stuff, mr Odd, beautiful video 🙏
As a swapper for nearly six months (former supercharger), there is no going back. It's like going down to river after our grandparent's experienced the washing machine. Why do it the old way? Waste that time? Get dirty? Discussing who's next in line? Spend 3-5 min @ a PSS for 90 % plus SoC, it's just unheard-of 🔋🔋
People ask me why I don't worry about the battery, swap "my" battery with someone else's? If there's one EV where you don't worry about battery health, it's NIO.
And to answer the question, when I swap "my" battery with someone else's, it's as worrying and emotional as when you're swapping your bbq propane tank. Couple of minutes, couple of bucks, bye-bye, everybody's happy and let's hit the road in no time 💯
Thank you for the nice words. You will always find people who reject new concepts. Especially elderly or rich. But, data shows the battery swap is becoming a great business regardless what other say.
Excellent video sir! NIO is a true Unico. 👌
Awesome video and info, thank you! Go NIO 🚀🚀🚀🔥🔥🔥
You are welcome
Battery swapping is a innovative approach to charging electric vehicles that involves exchanging depleted batteries for fully charged ones at dedicated swapping stations. This method offers several benefits that can have a significant impact on EV costs:
1. **Reduced Upfront Costs**: By decoupling the cost of the battery from the vehicle, battery swapping eliminates a significant portion of the upfront cost of purchasing an electric vehicle. This makes EVs more affordable and accessible to a larger audience.
2. **Lower Cost of Ownership**: Battery swapping can also lower the overall cost of owning an EV by eliminating the need for expensive battery replacements or repairs over time. Swapped batteries are typically well-maintained and regularly serviced, reducing the risk of costly maintenance issues.
3. **Increased Resale Value**: Since the battery is not owned by the vehicle owner, the resale value of the EV may increase as the buyer does not have to consider the cost of an aging battery. This can make second-hand EVs more appealing in the market.
4. **Improved Efficiency**: Battery swapping reduces the time needed to charge an EV, providing a quick and convenient alternative to traditional charging methods. This can lead to increased productivity for users and a more efficient use of their time.
5. **Enhanced User Experience**: The convenience of battery swapping stations located at strategic points can improve the overall user experience of owning an electric vehicle. Users no longer need to plan their routes around charging stations or wait for their vehicle to charge.
6. **Scalability and Flexibility**: Battery swapping technology can be scaled up and adapted to different vehicle models and brands, providing a flexible solution for EV manufacturers and users. This scalability can drive down costs through economies of scale.
7. **Environmental Impact**: By enabling a faster transition to electric vehicles, battery swapping can contribute to reducing greenhouse gas emissions and combating climate change. The sustainability and efficiency of battery swapping can have a positive impact on the environment.
Overall, the implementation of battery swapping in the electric vehicle industry has the potential to significantly impact EV costs by making ownership more affordable, efficient, and sustainable. As the technology continues to evolve and advance, battery swapping could play a vital role in accelerating the adoption of electric vehicles and shaping the future of sustainable transportation.
Agree with all points. Did you get them through CHAT GPT?BTY, Nio also listed 9 benefits for battery swap.
@@TheOddInvestor. Yes. All this information I got it through Chat GPT.
@@TheOddInvestor As I mentioned, I just ask CHAT GPT how big was the battery swap for NIO?
Really good information!...I love battery swap...This investment is starting to get fun...Have a great day!...
You are welcome
Hello Odd guy, The progress in NIO in deliveries looks like just now, that we are able to hold higher monthly deliveries. According to Mr.P April deliveries being higher was only from BAAS policy charges done in February!! The sub brand announcement, One big swapping partner announcement, & the new updated '24 models will all be good for NIO in the very short term.. All of those auto shows in China recently all have had very nice showings & as a result May deliveries are expected to crack the 20k/mo. Level. So to see NIO at $5.50 range depending on your viewpoint is a blessing or a curse!! For the people getting in now obviously is a blessing, & for us investors being into NIO longer seems like a curse.. Feel your pain odd guy..
Totally agree. It is a never ending learning curve
Amazing presentation. Can u estimate the franchising and licensing fees already collected by Nio. I expect positive cash flow in the upcoming quarterly reports.
I've been on the "cursed" side of this equation with other stocks, but now I'm on team "blessing" as I have just started my position in Nio. My recent trading friend brought this stock to my attention, and now I'm in love! I also live in China btw. My friend unfortunately is still waiting to break even, while I can start green from the get go! Feels good!
Peter most have averages above 15 possibly 20, but Nio can run up quickly very quickly. I expect once huge demand circa 25K plus profit comes Nio goes to $30+ very quick. 2025 $30 -$50
@@EnglandUK007 As we know an awful lot can happen in a year or 2. Profitability will be the first big hurtle, US expansion will be another big hurtle probably 2x or 3x as high as the Profitability hurtle imho.. The US right now is/seems very hostile towards China atm. So this is more of a distant dream than a reality.. NIO should lay off all US based employees to save money.. But, obviously I don't know very much vs. The NIO management on these things 100%.
You are one of the big reasons I invest in Nio, of course I do my job research on the company and I am responsible for my own actions and I follow the company every day. And I am sure that Nio is the one even if it returns to the dollar. Thank you for having you. We will all celebrate in the future soon.
Thank you for the nice words. I am glad to hear you invested in Nio because of the Odd Investor. Best of luck
Mr Odd, probably one of your best videos to date. Since I first heard of battery swapping I knew this had the potential to be a complete game changer. Thank you for all you do and thank you for always giving us your honest opinion.
Battery swap is so revolutionary and Nio will be huge in the future.
You are very welcome. Glad you liked it.
Super video, thank you very much for taking the effort!
Glad you liked it!
Love the graph and also believe exciting times are ahead for battery swaps🎉🎉$NIO
You are welcome
Great stuff today Mr. Odd.....love to know how much money NIO makes off the grid power yearly too ....this stock is going parabolic in the next year......Wheels up 🛩🛩🛩
You are welcome. I don't think anyone knows how much money Nio makes off the grid at this time
Wow, great video Odd. Hope to see more content like this. Data backed & with just enough education to know it’s significance.
Glad you liked it
Thank you for sharing this information. How many battery swaps per day must a NIO battery swap station perform to become profitable (swaps breakeven)?
In my view, calculation should probably include initial costs, anual fixed costs, costs per swap and revenue per swap.
The number i have in mind is 60 swaps per station.
I believe in every word you say it your opinion is great to me. Thank you 🙏
You are welcome
Great presentation, thank you! Couldn't agree more, it's only the beginning! And I think the pace will accelerate even more with the introduction of new swap station models, for example dual (or later even more) with bigger pools of batteries can be stacked and the capacity usage improved while maintaining better quality of service, availability of charged batteries, minimizing waiting times etc. Trunking efficiency improvements. Add to that some stations with unidirectional drive in & out without reversing and hence speeding up the process, and we have our future "petrol stations". Plus serving cars from other manufacturers with battery swap partnerships.
Absolutely 👍
I use CHAT GPT to get an idea of how big will be NIO Batterie Swap, and here is the reply.
NIO Battery Swabs are a revolutionary product designed to improve the ease and efficiency of swapping electric vehicle batteries. The swabs are portable, self-cleaning tools that allow for quick and seamless battery swaps in electric vehicles, eliminating the need for time-consuming charging. This concept has the potential to transform the way electric vehicles are powered, making battery swapping a convenient and practical solution for users. The idea of NIO Battery Swabs has the potential to disrupt the electric vehicle industry and significantly enhance the adoption and usability of electric vehicles on a larger scale.
Wow. I never used CHAT GPT. But, the information is very impressive
@@TheOddInvestor Hello. Yes, indeed. Is very accurate. I use it a lot.
I like $NIO, so any red day, I buy $NIO for 7 years
Good luck
I will called it the Pandora Box. Great discussion either way unlimited possibilities.
Thank you
Into the STRATOSPHERE 🚀🚀🚀🚀🚀🚀🚀🚀
There ya go Mr Odd! We can't control the other WS crap! Keep up the good work.... EXCELLENT ANALYSIS!!!!
Thank you!!!! Nio💪💪💪💪💪
You are welcome
Excellent analysis and video!
Thank you kindly!
Thank you Mr Odd
You are welcome
That is an exciting analysis of battery swaps.
Thank you.
Great Video. I have a 7 year old Tesla S. I have the same battery with only 225 miles range. I am stuck with my battery. Every electric car in the world, except NIO, is stuck with their original battery. Their cars are slowly devaluing. They are STUCK with their battery. When they eventually buy a new battery, they will spend 15-30K for a new battery from the manufacturer that has a monopoly on prices and this is done every 8-12 years. Technology changes yearly with longer range batteries. NIO is a bargain at this level. Swapping is a huge advantage. Go NIO …
Totally agree
If you pay a monthly fee for nio battery swapping vs buying the battery for Tesla after about 10 years, the price is about the same.
Well, the counter argument is: cars in average only last 17 years. The average battery can sustain that. Though what you will never have is new batt technology in old EVs. Possible only with NIO.
I don’t want to keep for 10 plus years my original battery range. My 7 year battery has a range of less the 225 miles; your asking me to keep my same battery range for another 5 years. No way, NIO now has a battery range of 600 miles…go NIO
@@ninovaghi3151 totally agree
Great video thank you for your analysis I'm an old Industrial Engineer after you pointed it out to me I think you are correct which really excites me about the future of battery swap where can this thing go
You are welcome. I am glad you found the information useful
Great job! Thank you!
I’ll share your video on X
You are welcome
wonderful analysis
You are welcome
Thank you the great odd ,for another great video sharing with us great information.
You are welcome
Roll on Q1 24 earnings, the beginning starts here!
The number of battery swap is a representation of how many Nio cars that are on the road. So in 2024, you don’t have just 2024 sales that are swapping, but also 2018, 2019, 2020…. So yes it will grow steady until there are as many cars that get off the road (end of life) as new ones on the road. But the thing that comes to mind is how many swap stations will Nio need to suffice demand. It’s not like selling software, they need the infrastructure to support demand…
Good question. One time I did some rough estimates. Maybe will visit again in the future
Gracias amigo!!!!!! 🙏🏼🙏🏼🙏🏼🙏🏼🇲🇽🇲🇽🇲🇽🇲🇽
Perhaps NIO should employ Tesla's supercharging team that were fired! Great analysis btw
Haha. Hey, you never know
Thanks, Ata!
You are welcome
everyone knows that swab is the future, there is no escape from it
I once checked the EV sales of NIO partners. We soon have 500k NIO on the road. In a few years with the Salesforce of adopting partners about 6M a year ( it was about that number if I remember correctly)we will have an epic scaling system with millions of cars. I really don't get why people don't have that vision. It's not rocket science to see
Totally agree
Plus NIOs will last much longer than any other car ever (not just EVs). The growing fleet will bring constant revenue through the swap tech. Conventional car manufacturers only earn money by selling expensive replacement parts. That's why a new manufacturer like NIO has a hard time. Because there is no fleet yet that you can earn money with. Now NIO won't be dependent on the repair part business but will make high quality cars that will last for long time instead. They will earn money by selling power. Since they will be able to sell power cheaper than any other competitor soon people will understand that NIOs are premium and at the same time very cheap to run. They have the chance to throw all other premium brands from their podests once the masses understand how it works and how cheap they can drive a premium vehicle.
I just saw a German car review where they compares the NIO ET5 with a BMW M340 Diesel. The car testers did not fully comprehend NIOs model and so the BMW won. Once NIO is rolling out the 150 kWh battery the Diesel has no advantage anymore. Imagine: you can drive 7+ hours and then refill fully automatic in under 4 minutes. No other car can do that. NIOs future is great if they continue this way.
@marcusfleuti2672 sorry I have been busy lately, and haven't had the chance to reply. I certainly agree with your comments. The fact the a German review is made for the ET5 is a positive news to Nio.
@@TheOddInvestor There's lots of German reviews about NIO lately. They are mixed. Some are very good, some are critizising that the model is too complex (buy/rent the car, BAAS, Swapping... people don't understand how it works). Then there's issues with like SIXT who rents out NIOs but has no contract with NIO for battery swap and people are stranded in front of the stations. Which is very bad marketing for NIO even though it's not their fault. I think NIO has a hard time in Germany. Especially because if you buy a NIO without the battery and use BAAS, you cannot upgrade/downgrade the battery. For example: You got the car with a 75 kWh battery. So the car registration papers are issued for 75 kWh. Which disallows NIO to swap a 100 kWh battery into this vehicle. Some people who bought a NIO did not know that and are now stranged with the small battery. The EU law has to change but this can take a while. Until then, the big benefit of battery swap is basically inexistent in the EU. Very stupid. And the media is babbling about that making NIO look like a stupid Chinese startup brand and battery swap to be something totally unnecessary. NIO does a lot of things wrong in the EU market and at the moment it seems, that they cannot really solve it.
Can you make a video about how much deliveries should NIO make to hit profitability or at least break even (before Onvo starts deliveries)?
I made a video in December, but things changed and I plan to make another video sometime soon
That would be logical to conclude that battery swap data can be collected daily by NIO. However it was once mentioned that a swap station needs to do more than 60 swaps a day to be profitable.
What makes the battery swap a cloudy business to evaluate profitability is the hundreds of thousands of free battery swaps given to customers as incentives to buy NIO evs.
William Li may have commented on this in one of his media presentation.
He may have alluded that the scaling up of swapping will make it more profitable.
I would not be surprised to see the swap partners change the name of the swap stations to avoid giving free swaps to NIO owners, while other EV non NIO models have to pay.
The free swaps for NIO owners must surely be detrimental for partnership considerations by other .manufacturers.
Yes, 60 swaps/day is the right number. Free battery swap is negligible in time.
We will be in the 100's of $$$ in price. You will see.
Haha. I hope so
Based on my numbers, if Nio battery swap grows at this rate, it should reach profitability in a little less than 3 years
No. Much sooner than that
Mr Odd, I've been a master black belt in Lean six sigma for many years the stats tools you refer too are used when data is available as in historic, Wall st use real time like design of experiments in that the factors which there are multiple are parameters in which the algorithms are set using real time live data to predict the outcome. That's why Wall st always wins, probability 99.99%. Every outcome is measured and predictable, retail are kinda guessing at best.
Can't agree more. I stated a few times that the market is controlled every second of every day.
When it is all said and done in a a few years NIO will be able to do 2M swaps in a day. Imagine the revenue.
Totally agree
Battery swapping is the only way by NIO. Swap, Charge, and don't have to worry about the whole team that supports this being laid off and fired.
Totally agree
🎉
We are barely taking off guys...still on the runway...this B is going to sh/t money and profits peeps....buckle up....
True
I have been in this stock for a looong time and am very disappointed in it's progress due to the shorting! I would like to see daylight but don't know when we can overcome the shorting! I think that with a huge float they can play as desired, I hope I'm wrong!!
I agree
for some time now I have been logging at 930 am and keeping a log of swaps and battery swap stations and I see things like swaps starting to go up much faster then a few months prior , like more swaps per day , this is a good thing , what i am loacking is partners they have aquired on builds , I believe the live swap map is only for Nio and not partners so I think they are gen3 only , can you answer if the live map where it shows swaps is also caculation the partners swap stations , I think William li is unlke Elon mushk which boasts about new technology where as William LI is quiet or does not tell us things , I also believe China ia more competetive which is why Nio is hush hush so competors do not steal any technology , I do have more faith in Nio lately
This is basically the best data I was able to collect and analyze. Yes, William Li is quiet while Elon Must is more engaged with the public.
Once partnerships/ franchise start battery swaps & Baas is fully running with Sub brands your battery swap chart will J curve for sure 100%. thnx Odd investor Not long til your thesis statement will be proven correct in mid to late 2025? Or early 2026 when the party 🥳🎉 is in full swing for NIO & battery swapping $$$
Totally agree
Brilliant thought provoking video. BS is the future so is Nio.
Thank you
hellooooooooo odd investor EY….