Canadian Job Market Growth SHOCKS Mortgage Rate Forecasts
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- Опубліковано 7 лют 2025
- This week’s episode is packed with crucial updates and insights that could directly affect your real estate decisions in 2025.
A much stronger-than-expected jobs report has thrown a wrench into predictions for interest rate cuts, potentially keeping the Bank of Canada on hold this January. With Canada adding 91,000 jobs last month, (far exceeding expectations) compounded by labour market strength is complicating the case for lower rates. However, not all is as it seems: 62,000 of those jobs went to workers over 55, and a significant portion came from public sector growth (44%!). We break down what this could mean for mortgage rates and why the 5-year bond yield is already climbing.
In Vancouver, affordability continues to be a challenge as recent policies are expected to push home prices higher. On the flip side, there’s good news out of Burnaby, where one of the first multiplex building permits has been approved. The timeline, fees, and offsite costs surprised even the developer-and might give hope to those exploring small-scale development opportunities.
We also tackle the ongoing affordability crisis, exploring how the ban on natural gas in new construction and new net-zero mandates are inflating the cost of homes. For example, a fourplex project now have an additional $150,000 for electrical upgrades, adding roughly $40,000 to the cost of each unit. These policy changes are a stark reminder to “watch what they do, not what they say” when it comes to government claims about building affordable housing.
Meanwhile, mortgage arrears are also starting to climb, with delinquency rates hitting a 9-year high in Toronto. Yet even as the headlines grab attention, the data tells a different story-arrears remain well below pre-pandemic levels, and the overall risk of panic is low. However, with 50% of mortgage holders set to face higher payments over the next two years (in excess of 30+%), it’s clear that financial strain is building for many Canadians.
We also take a closer look at the nearly 30% of homes listed for sale that are vacant. Are they former Airbnbs, second homes, or properties listed to dodge the vacancy tax? It’s a fascinating trend that raises more questions about the current state of the market.
And to cap it off, we’re excited to showcase a stunning family home on Vancouver’s prestigious Golden Mile in Kitsilano. Located on West 1st Avenue, this property boasts breathtaking ocean views, over $1 million in renovations, and one of the most luxurious primary suites you’ll ever see. Don’t miss this incredible listing-check it out at www.3262W1st.com
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This week’s episode is packed with crucial updates and insights that could directly affect your real estate decisions in 2025.
A much stronger-than-expected jobs report has thrown a wrench into predictions for interest rate cuts, potentially keeping the Bank of Canada on hold this January. With Canada adding 91,000 jobs last month, (far exceeding expectations) compounded by labour market strength is complicating the case for lower rates. However, not all is as it seems: 62,000 of those jobs went to workers over 55, and a significant portion came from public sector growth (44%!). We break down what this could mean for mortgage rates and why the 5-year bond yield is already climbing.
In Vancouver, affordability continues to be a challenge as recent policies are expected to push home prices higher. On the flip side, there’s good news out of Burnaby, where one of the first multiplex building permits has been approved. The timeline, fees, and offsite costs surprised even the developer-and might give hope to those exploring small-scale development opportunities.
We also tackle the ongoing affordability crisis, exploring how the ban on natural gas in new construction and new net-zero mandates are inflating the cost of homes. For example, a fourplex project now have an additional $150,000 for electrical upgrades, adding roughly $40,000 to the cost of each unit. These policy changes are a stark reminder to “watch what they do, not what they say” when it comes to government claims about building affordable housing.
Meanwhile, mortgage arrears are also starting to climb, with delinquency rates hitting a 9-year high in Toronto. Yet even as the headlines grab attention, the data tells a different story-arrears remain well below pre-pandemic levels, and the overall risk of panic is low. However, with 50% of mortgage holders set to face higher payments over the next two years (in excess of 30+%), it’s clear that financial strain is building for many Canadians.
We also take a closer look at the nearly 30% of homes listed for sale that are vacant. Are they former Airbnbs, second homes, or properties listed to dodge the vacancy tax? It’s a fascinating trend that raises more questions about the current state of the market.
And to cap it off, we’re excited to showcase a stunning family home on Vancouver’s prestigious Golden Mile in Kitsilano. Located on West 1st Avenue, this property boasts breathtaking ocean views, over $1 million in renovations, and one of the most luxurious primary suites you’ll ever see. Don’t miss this incredible listing-check it out at www.3262W1st.com
Scary that Canada is still adding public sector jobs when that sector is already 40% bigger than it should be. And now we need to double our military spending to meet NATO requirements, adding tens of thousands of extra military positions. Net zero on BC coast is laughably unnecessary. Plus don't forget about the extra $80k cost per home for the new handicapped code requirements for all new houses in BC too.
The Canadian government is creating a false sense of market improvement by adding large amount of unnecessary public sector jobs, while the private sector remains stagnant, indicating continued economic struggles. Compounded by the looming impact of upcoming US tariffs.
enjoyed the show. Nice job on the listing on 1st ave. Impressed!
Thanks Dumm!
Thank you so much!!
The government has counted Canada Post employees going back on the job as new jobs to the economy. This shouldn’t be allowed, but somehow it’s allowed to happen 😮
lol, they just make the rules, it's our job to play by them
@ or work around them… like our tax laws
@@amiramaisy truth
Professionals usually look at things deeper and different
For example as soon as they hear Canadian saving is up or job market did great last month!
Means what to average Joe? Oh rates going up then! Not necessarily……..
So there is a new kind of FIRE now😊
one months unemployment report does not make a trend.
unemployment in 2025 will be much different than unemployment in the past. These reports have little to no influence on BC real estate.
Agreed! We touch on exactly that point in this video
We need Canada's version of DOGE... RIGHT NOW
Agreed!
Smoke and mirrors just like the CPLie. Canadian household debt just reached the $ 3 trillion mark. Canadian household credit card debt is at the highest level in history.
Lol job report is not good look deeper
non issue
Really? It’s a public jobs and seasonal.
It’s far more than just public jobs and seasonality. It’s indicative of the direction of growth. 44% of all jobs coming from the state is a lot. When a large portion of new jobs is concentrated in the public sector, it signals that the government is expanding its workforce. This can strain public finances since these jobs are funded by taxpayers, not by profit-driven activities. Over time, this could lead to higher taxes or larger deficits, which are unattractive to businesses and future investment. The nuance in the data is very telling
Parasitic federal Gov and provincial hybrid job type jobs as well as import pylon jobs are not real GDP jobs!
What's your basis that "government is bloated"? Growth doesn't automatically mean bloated. I keep hearing this from the UA-cam Realtor crowd. We get it, you're business owners, and self employed. Can we get some data instead of this tired argument that growth in the public sector automatically means bloat? TF kind of logic is this?
Sure. It’s not a “realtors” perspective, but rather a macro economic perspective that you’re hearing. Relying heavily on public sector job creation is a short-term solution that can create long-term economic challenges. A balanced approach, where private sector growth that drives job creation & productivity, is typically healthier for sustainable economic growth. Encouraging private investment, fostering innovation, and supporting entrepreneurship will provide a more resilient foundation for the economy and attract international investment.
By contrast, excessive public sector growth can make an economy less competitive, less attractive to investors, and more vulnerable to fiscal crises, ultimately stifling overall economic progress and relying largely on the state instead of innovation and the best ideas.
Here's why we feel the government is bloated, the Canadian federal government has experienced significant and disproportionate growth in its public service workforce in recent years. Between April 1, 2022, and March 31, 2023, the public service population grew by 6.5%, adding 16,642 employees to reach a total of 274,219. Since 2015, the civil service has expanded by more than 40%, far outpacing both the growth of Canada’s population and economy during the same period. For example, regions like Western Canada saw notable increases, with British Columbia experiencing a 30% rise in federal employees, Alberta 36%, and Manitoba 38.7%. From 2010 to 2023, the federal public service grew from 282,980 to 367,772 employees-a 30% increase-compared to Canada’s population growth of only 20% during the same time. By 2023, the public service made up 0.90% of Canada’s population, up from 0.83% in 2010. At a time when the federal government is running persistent deficits and losing billions of dollars annually, adding more expenses through such workforce expansion is unsustainable and irresponsible. Instead, the government should focus on trimming the fat, streamlining operations, and reallocating resources more efficiently to ensure long-term fiscal viability and greater value for taxpayers.