Gulf states pursue nationalism to achieve internal unity - says Kristin Diwan

* The Arab ‘Spring’ required Gulf governments both to control the new digital spaces and not allow opposition to the ruling families, but also to work with the young people and meet their demands.
* In Saudi Arabia this meant the government had to take on the religious power structure that they had created, while also clamping down on the political voices seeking changes.
* The Arab ‘Spring’ was a diverse coalition in which younger and more liberal Islamists and Salafis worked with social liberals.
* The end of the security guarantees of the Pax Americana means that Gulf states all seek working alliances with regional powers, such as Iran and Israel.
* The Gulf states have become middle powers in a middle space, that focus on their own internal development. They do not want the chaos that is in rest of the Arab world.
* A possible Trump administration will 1.avoid any long-term intervention; 2. be very tough on Iran; 3. see Iraq as a problem; and 4. ratchet up support for Israel.
* The Gulf states will want to get close to Trump, even if they may not support Trump-sanctions on Iran since that may bring them some blow-back.
* The Islamist movement is very weak right now after it lost Egypt. The UAE’s anti-Islamism principles have overtaken Qatar’s idea of working with Islamism.