Robotaxi is coming (Ep. 760)
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- Опубліковано 25 лип 2024
- Once Tesla releases their unsupervised Robotaxi platform will adoption be slow or fast?
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Glad to see you back Dave. The Tesla community desperately needs your level headed commentary, insights and common sense.
You make the "Tesla community" sound like they're afraid they've become bag holders 😂
I do enjoy his grounded humble approach very well said
@@opencase9903 they are afraid but the most innovative company in the world most often prevails
Hi Dave, first and foremost I wish you and your family the best in overall health outcome and well being.
Second of all I think you are one of the most trustworthy and level headed people in the Tesla investor community so that should make all of us very pleased to hear from you, welcome
Thanks.
yes, more level-headed, grounded, more consistent and rational rather than those emotional charged and and hard pounding
his voice is quite calming too
Glad to see you making videos again.
Love your work Dave! I believe Tesla needs to first roll out their own Tesla robotaxi fleet for a time… to make sure operations are stable before opening up the platform to the privately owned Tesla fleet
Already happening in China. They have clearance for ten cars from one city to airport I believe ..
Good to see you back
He disappeared like most tes utube guys after its fall from grace for near 4 yr not wanting to be a part of that ,
Or maybe not
The rollout of Tesla insurance should preceed the rollout of Robotaxi.
I've heard very little about the Tesla insurance lately. But it seems that it's very fragmented business in the US, with different rules and hindrances between different states.
We need to know more about that!
Tesla Insurance is still not here in Florida and we have the second most Tesla EV's only second to California. Why is that?
As of March 2024, California had the most Tesla EVs registered in the United States, with 903,620, followed by Florida with 167,990, and Texas with 149,000.
@@allenaxp6259 Because Florida is not insurable. Too risky.
THanks Dave!! Omg I'm so glad you're back and presenting your concise and inspirational insight. A lot of us sense what's going on and what's coming, and it's super awesome to hear it come from you.
Great to see you posting more Dave! Your insights are very helpful and needed in the Tesla investor community, especially after Rob rode off into the sunset.
Hi Dave, I had a thought. Elon talked about the value of being in the robotaxi fleet exceeding the monthly cost of owning the car. Once this is the case you create an incredible amount of demand for the cars because you don’t have to worry about the payment. You can basically get a Model three or model Y for free if you put it on the Robotaxi network for a certain amount of hours each month. This is a way to utilize the entire capacity of all the factories and accelerate the adoption of robotaxi. Love to hear your thoughts.
Love you Dave, delighted you're back
Dave is back 😍😍😍
Flick a switch, instant millions of robotaxis. This in conjunction with dedicated robotaxi form factor means instant robotaxi fleet. Tesla isn't stupid.
Great to have you back Dave
We missed you Dave! Hope you’re doing well my friend
THANKS 🙏 DAVE,FOR SHARING…. AND MAKING GREAT SENSE 🤗🧐💚💚💚
I've been missing you, Dave. Great you're back. Hope all is well with your family.
Just five years away, along with quantum computers and nuclear fusion...
Welcome back Dave! You've been missed!
Thank you Dave
Glad to see you more often lately😊
If the taxi drives FSD-only, insurance will be cheaper oc. But you'll need a little extra insurance if the customer spills a pot of coffee over your white interior ...
Good analysis Dave, thanks
Robo taxis can be deployed instantly by having a driver in the seat to supervise the FSD system and take control when necessary. This approach is similar to the existing Uber model but utilizes Tesla's own platform. This method not only facilitates immediate deployment but also aids in FSD training and provides valuable data for improving the FSD system with human intervention. In other words, launching the Robo taxi on August 8 is feasible, provided there are no legal or licensing requirements from Specific Locations impeding the use of such services like Uber.
Thank you
Love your videos Dave. The format is great and the content is well thought out.
Good to see you Dave, I would love to see u more often, thank you 😊 🙏
영상 자주 올려주세요요 제발~
My question is how is someone supposed to keep the car clean if the person is at work?
Great to see you back in the swing of things again Dave :-)
Wish we had Tesla insurance here in the UK
Why in the world would Tesla sell cars that could just be robo taxies that generate more money than it’s valued in a year or two
Dave!!! So happy you’re doing videos again. Best to your family
Thank you, Dave!
I would like a very detailed breakdown of what the cost/profit scenario of using your personal vehicle as a robotaxi using any presently known prices of Musk products. Or better yet, just buying a TSLA car to only use as a robotaxi. That would allow better planning on how to prepare to start a robotaxi business. Allow all likely expenses, such as, insurance, cost of vehicle, cost of electricity, cost of cleaning, maintenance, etc.
Welcome back Dave 😊
Hi Dave, nice to see you back. I am excited at the potential for Tesla Robotaxis but what about the exhaustive regulatory red tape? I see that as a major roadblock.
You guys are always moving the goalpost. Too funny, hope your family is well.
■ 🎹🎹🎹 ■
Dave, the GOAT!! The most balanced, intelligently approached commentary on the reality of Tesla's development and potential in our Tesla investor community! We love our "hope", but I prefer reason and balance, lessening the potential for being let down when ultra bull cases don't quite get there, but also bolstering hope when the bears beat us down into seeming despair. This feels good. Ride the Tesla ride, hang on, and enjoy the view as we go. Progress IS happening! Thank you, Dave!! (I hope the piano lessons/learning/fun is going well! 😊)
I read that Baidu recently expressed an interest in adding teslas to it's robotaxi fleet in China. Maybe they know more about the upcoming compact model than we do.
I look at it this way, since GM Cruise driverless cars were not in big demand for use, why should I think that Tesla will be. Not a game changer.
It was never wide spread it’s a whole different game
Lookin good David. Welcome back.
How is charging and cleaning done for an owners car that is added to the robotaxi network?
A supercharger with a robotaxi section and an Optimus doing charging and cleaning.
@@larsnystrom6698and who is PAYING for the overhead? Robots aren’t gonna be cheap plus you need basic things like soap and construction of the cleaning/charging facilities.
Does it also mean there will be very much empty cars on the road, or standing on the road waiting for parkingspot.
Hi Dave
Dave , thank you for your input always appreciated. I wonder if you have ever come across Lee from Teslaeconomics? Lee was always so positive about Tesla but has now become a Tesla bear, I would love to you produce a video where the two of you discuss Tesla and for you to see if you can come up with counter arguments to his now very bearish opinion of Tesla and his view of Elon Musk. Perhaps if anyone reading this comment could confirm if such an encounter would be of wider interest. Thank you.
I think they’ll be going hard and fast with the robotaxi network early on in China. There’s something like 800 cities with over a million people each in China and their auto fatalities are way higher than in the US. I think the recent news we’ve seen regarding Tesla and China is just the beginning.
I am actually of the belief that the Bot might hit the bottom line before Robotaxi's do. It's just much less complicated. Less legal hurdles. Less media hassle. There is nothing that says Companies can't use Robots in factories. The people there can be trained to work alongside robots (or they are already). And worst case, if anything happens, nobody cares. Accidents with factory robots happen all the time.
Yes I agree. Also Tesla has 140k people atm and Elon said 1000 plus bots by next year in the factory. Once these bots get good enough and start replacing the boring repetitive jobs seen as Tesla owns them and there is little cost that valuable labour should compound and help bottom line
Dave!
In the beginning Robo taxi will most likely be available in very limited areas that have been extensively tested and roll out from there.
Welcome back Dave
Hi Dave, thanks for your great video. What is the chance that the government will get involved to make Robotaxi roll out difficult?
What was her guess on TSLA price by the year 2024 like 1-4 years ago?
If you add your Tesla to the Tesla Network for ridesharing, what's to stop someone from fighting with other passengers?
Only one passenger or a group of friends per ride?
your voice is soothing
Lol what? Bro....
Plain spoken, straight forward no nonsense reasoning. Will it happen? Very likely.
Glad to so you making videos again. Your videos are an important reason that I am invested in Tesla
Informative as always
Most rich people stay rich by spending like the poor and investing without stopping then most poor people stay poor by spending like the rich yet not investing like the rich but impressing them
Exactly! My grandparents were so frugal but they had a TON of money on both sides. I remember my grandfather telling me "you want to make money while you sleep." And I guess that attitude passed down to my dad (RIP), because I remember going to his house one day and I had bought something I really liked, so I wanted to show it to him. So I said "Look at this!
Isn't it cute? It was on sale...I saved 50%!" My dad replied "Well, if you're spending, you're not saving." Obviously I had no retort, and that has always stuck with me.
Saving and investing wisely while prioritizing necessities and a few small luxuries in relation to one's total assets is a great approach. It helps ensure financial stability and I my for the enjoyment of life's little pleasures without compromising long-term financial goals. It's all about finding a balance that works for you!
very true, a huge part of my portfolio growth has come during this bear market. I've been able to scale from $180K to $572K in a short period of time.
How do you do that? I'm interested
Stephen Milne Ebert
WIth compounding effects of higher miles driven on FSD, larger compute, larger cache of data, etc. the non-linear progress causes crossover to happen sooner than expected. Some of this will be a judgement call - actual cross-over won't be perfectly measurable.
A perfectly trained monkey response.
good point
I think you’re wrong about liability Dave. A human driver killing a pedestrian in a crosswalk already has financial precedence in the payout. There is no precedence for a robot yet. This will be like winning the lottery for an American lawyer. As a Tesla shareholder I want them to minimize liability risk. It was a huge snub to India when Elon postponed the trip and went to China. I think they promised musk a liability cap for the rollout of cyber cab.
You bring up a good point about liability and potential costly litigation.
Can i turn my model y into a robo taxi or only for this specific robo taxi car?
Why hasn't FSD been able to break past level 2 autonomy?
Listened and understand Dave. But, in my life, I can’t even imagine letting strangers ride in my car for the first thing. Let’s assume I get over that (in consideration of the income), I can’t envision the RT being safer among other existing human drivers who are clearly more dangerous. How does one get accountability for accidents and damages? Realistically? I guess we shall see. I know, on paper there are theoretical answers, but in all practicality, I’m struggling. I’m not a total pessimist, just a realist who asks the critical questions and plans for the worst case scenario. In this case, I really think we will need Optimus to double as ‘RoboCop’ to help get criminal and civil accountability and justice for victims. Yep, that’s potentially a RoboCop-Terminator world I’m postulating. And my struggling becomes pessimism. But, I’m still open to hearing better minds red teaming this. Yes, deep.
im bearish on tesla at this time. but in future months and years, i can only see huge upsides to tesla. i plan to invest big in tesla in the near future. i already have a healthy amount of shares but my plan is to increase that 10 fold. some people doesnt seem to understand that nvidia and ai took years to realize and still has alot of potential. Tesla will get there because Elon is the right guy to get it done and do it right. most people will argue that tesla has already missed the mark. but i will argue that the AI technology we are seeing now will improve Tesla computing power by such a huge margin that it is worth the wait.
Elon: Robi taxis will come out in 2020.
Dave: Robi taxis roll out will be much faster than expected
Norms: Yeah yeah yeah
Sane person: what year is this?
@00:12 lots of people assert that a robotaxi service will have "software (as a service) margins", which google suggests is about 80% margins. I'm not so sure, because Elon has stated the need to invest about $10 billion annually in AI just to stay competitive, while traditional (non-AI) software products are several orders of magnitude cheaper to develop and maintain than $10 billion annually. I'm not saying a robotaxi business can't be profitable; merely that I would like to see "$10 billion annual expenses" factored into the profitability analysis.
I’m a Tesla bull, BUT when FSD basically doesn’t work in Colorado for instance,it’s not going to be universally available. As you said Dave, expect well known urban areas with local metro areas and highways between these points, hope things are going well for your wife.
Up the TAM shrinks real quick. San Fran is a wash because they are a war zone now, Everyone trying to leave if they can. NYC is wiped out. It’s basically some parts of Cali:TX and FL. New England is a wash won’t work
Why doesn't it work in Colorado?
@@khuo0219 iNot sure but the reports are from Brian for instance at FutureAZA who tried it after hearing confirmed it. Not sure why exactly but it was very unreliable.
I live in Colorado and I love my FSD! I avoid driving our other EV that doesn't have FSD because the MY with FSD is just so much safer, easier and more enjoyable. Driving in Aurora, Denver, Golden and Boulder. Maybe you don't have v12? It's not perfect, but it's 100x better than driving without it. Curious if you have v12 and if you've tried it lately.
@@ddextera Brian at FutureAZA commented on this problem, and claims he heard this and observed it while in the area. Maybe it depends on which part?
Total autonomy will happen eventually, what about charging and cleaning? Jeannine
Coming. But not arriving! 😢
No, that is wrong. Its not that people are "biased" that it will take longer than expected. It has already taken longer then expected. This has already occurred. It is past tense.
Shush don't burst the bubble
Autonomous driving is a lot more difficult than people imagined
Hopefully Elon will read your insightful comment and make the impossible happen more in line with your expectations.
@@JamesBond-qv2ht except it's not "our expectations". It's the expectations Elon set publicly. You're fanboying
@@MokeAnit and you’re an Elon hater.
Was robo taxies not suppose to be out In 2019
Im in Australia and my Tesla insurance has more than doubled No tesla insurance here
3:05 complications- regulatory, FSD etc.
What do you think of size of the robotaxi business projected by Ark? Is there really going to be demand for millions and millions of robotaxis to make the profits they foresee?
Tesla Insurance hasn’t added any states in years
2 years ago you made a video
"Apple car is coming"
It ended not so well
I would not put a relatively new Tesla in the Robo-taxi network. Maybe a older used one…
All this talk about the future - I just want to see an earnings beat. We haven't had one for so long, that's why the share price is depressed
Atp is up over 10% thanks to the ct since Jan 1st of 24. Also tsla has gone 500+days in between aths 3 times now since the ipo.
This is the 2nd 600+day time period between an ath sp. One it pops I bet it does a cork and explodes past $300 in a week to 10 days.
I think that happens late q3 or q4 after the robotaxi is debuted and digested+ct hits decent volumes at over 80k atp. And finally the lathrope megapactory contributes serious money in gwhs to tesla energy revenue.
Also many oems will have had some form of sc access for multiple month's by then likely boosting sc revenues and tesla has 18-24% of ALL approved ira&nevi funds in 24. Powerwall 3 per elon is now ramping. And 4680 could be below competitors cell costs before year's end. 👍🏻😎
Buy the dip
No it's not. For many reasons. Not least of which is:
Dave, would you put your Tesla into the robotaxi pool? QED.
I wouldn't put my new Y in, but my son's old 3 will go in day 1.
@@JoeBrigAI It will be long dead by the time fsd is a thing. Also I think you'll find it more of a hassle than it's worth. It will be a race to the bottom - everyone will be doing it. It will become the same question as "Would you become a taxi driver?". I'm sure you and I won't bother.
I understand the low collission risks but will the insurance comprehensive policy cover loss from vandelism damage by an unknown pax? and who is liable if the car is in accident: Tesla or the taxi owner. I’d be concerned with unlimited liabilities. What about people who smoke in a non-smokers car. Happens all the time in the rental car market.
Assuming that crossover happens and TSLA releases robotaxi, if and when robotaxi gets into a fatal accident, what are implications or effects that would have on the stock? Flying is the safest way to travel, but look at the Boeing stock performance due to safety concerns.
Lots of Uber /Lyft and other drivers that could help launch this right now with the Robo app !
best tesla channel by far. period.
By faaaar ❤
Brighter with Herbert
My insurance is more than 10% cheaper than what Tesla quoted and after using FSD since February I can easily say GOOD LUCK with that. It’s not ready. Los Angeles.
You never mention the biggest hurdle which is regulatory. Also, being safer than a human driver presumably is a statistical statement, whereas we all know that I (yourself) can drive 100x better than the moron that is texting or yabbering in the next lane, so when can the robocar drive better than the best driver? Finally, a couple of high profile mishaps on autopilot could significantly slow things down alah cruize. What bugs me is that Tesla loves to change the thesis. All this time it has been missing deadlines on batteries, cybertrucks, solar tiles, and 25k mainstream e-car. Now we are all supposed to be excited about robots. It is a crowded field and by no means clear that Tesla will maintain its luster.
Quite true. FSD will never drive better than you do. But it will very soon drive better than anyone else!
For me it's a question of how long will it take to build a fleet that can handle peak demand in secondary and tertiary cities across the country. Existing fleet is mostly unavailable during peak demand as the owner needs their own vehicle at that time. It will require tens of millions of vehicles to satisfy peak demand, and it will take a lot longer to build that than it will to get the software to an acceptable level.
It would be very helpful if Tesla addresses accordingly to the investors what the biggest hurdle is to release FSD L4 or L5?
Is it still insufficient data gathering or computing capability or regulations,,,,,?
Just think of all the drunk drivers that can push the FSD button or take a robo taxi home and save us all…😊
I expect robotaxis to take off first in China because of government cooperation. We still can't get Tesla insurance and showrooms in many US states.
Good to have you back, Dave. And it’s true that Tesla has built awesome competitive advantages in autonomous driving. That said, I believe the take rate of FSD even after the bargain offer of $99 has not been that great. Happy to be corrected if that’s not the case but if it’s true, that gives me pause. Also even assuming that FSD becomes a reality, not sure if Tesla won’t get stuck as they have with the EV business because of their inability to lead the industry to stimulate demand. That needs astute marketing which they don’t seem to have much of a competence for. Worse, they don’t seem to think it’s necessary and are a bit bullheaded about it. Therefore even if Tesla launches best-in-class FSD, chances are that some others will cash in on the volume segments beyond the early adopters. Let’s hope they’re able to overcome this blind spot in due course.
great video.
One downside to Tesla's current implementation is that it has to train for every new vehicle and hardware combination. Unlike a human who can jump in any car or get new glasses without learning how to drive from ground zero.
FSD isn't trained with many different vehicles yet, so it doesn't learn that.
It might in the future though, or they might keep different versions for different vehicles. It's not like FSD hops into another car after being downloaded, is it? So this isn't necessary.
But driving a semi or bus isn't anything a human can do directly from driving an ordinary car, is it?
Actually, I doubt FSD is ever trained from scratch, nowadays. I think they start out from the old version, the same as we humans do.
@@larsnystrom6698 HW4 on a Model Y has been out for a year and it is still running in HW3 emulation mode. So it's not a trivial task with FSD's current implementation, even with a HW spec bump on the same car. No CyberTruck FSD either. No clue how they will offer FSD in other manufacturers cars.
I'm guessing a redesign is in the works that will componentize separate areas.
Someone pointed out that for Cybertruck, it has steer by wire and rear wheel drive, which means it drivers slightly differently to all their other cars. I would think the others cars drive with FSD fairly similarly, once configured @@JoeBrigAI
It's always seems to be Cathy Wood's future 5 year outlook, but nobody looks at her performance based on the outlook she gave 5 years ago! It becomes a never ending moving target!
I agree. Her 5 year outlook in 2020 is about to hit in 2025 and no one is calling out her promises.
The way musk answered the questions, it was as if they aren’t ready for the self driving to start this year. It looks like he was just guessing on his answers about what if the car randomly stops or car issues. If they were ready they would have answered ready. It’s no wonder the stock tanked the following day.
Also his math on potential and valuation. Potential is infinite but what’s realistic over the next five years given the current trajectory?
TSLA stock chart shows it is in a long term wedge. Resolution of the wedge is due fall of 2025. Before then the sp will have to break a strong falling resistance line. For the next months resistance will be at about $220.
They better perfect FSD if Robotaxi are coming. FSD has put me some dangerous situations at times.
I think Pilot Program might happen same time next year.
Time for something new to happen for the first time in human history is a very big thing! Starting at the Big Bang 13.7 billion years ago and rushing forward to the development of our solar system then man coming on the scene to modern times is a big deal so these last few decades must play out as we develop this new form of automotive technology to take us closer to automation in transportation! Relax and enjoy the journey!
My Tesla Insurance in Nevada is $88.70 per month per car (Tesla and non-Tesla cars). I have had FSD(S) for over two years. I use it daily. 99% of my driving or I should say non-driving is 99%. I simply tell my MY where I want to go. How would you like to own a smart car that drives you to wherever you want to go? Amazing. Autopark - perpendicular and parallel - again amazing.
I think the reason why Tesla came up with insurance is to get high quality data. Because the driver is incentivized to drive as rational as possible, results in the best data to train the AI autopilot
👍