Yes but not "since this presentation". It was all presented approximately October-December 2021 and was all the culmination so far of the 1st 4 years (with 4 years still to go) of this large project and all presented since autumn 2021 until now February 2022 was all known to the scientists since like autumn 2021.
The volcanic heating contribution of Antarctica is a jaw-droppingly minuscule 0.076% of the causes of ice loss. Anybody browsing who is interested, find my detailed comment here with all-verifiable quantity details & calculations. You're welcome.
Based on the fracture of the Larsen C ice shelf first being noticed in November 2010, its extent and width at that time and its rate of growth the few years following, I suggest the possibility that the fracture of the Larsen C ice shelf might well have been caused by the Indian Ocean tsunami 26 December 2004 following sea bed earthquake. "The tsunami also reached Antarctica, where tidal gauges at Japan's Showa Base recorded oscillations of up to a metre with disturbances lasting a couple of days". ------------------------------ I see "the sea floor is estimated to have risen by several metres, displacing an estimated 30 of water". If I take the tsunami as radiating in a circle then the radius is 13,000 km at Larsen C ice shelf distance so the quantity of tsunami water per metre of impacted face is 30,000,000,000 / (26,000,000 * pi) = 367 m**3 (this assumes negligible settling of the water during travel). For 1 metre of SLR extending to 367m from the ice shelf face I compute 367 * 42,000 * 10,000 = 154,000,000,000 newton-metres of torque per metre of fracture run at the fracture point using a 42km width. If I assume 350m thick then the tensile pull at the bottom of the fracture from 1m SLR lifting at 42 km from the pivot point = 440,000,000 newtons per metre of fracture run. The tensile pull over 350m thick from 1m SLR lifting over 42 km = 1,260,000 newtons per metre of ice depth per metre of fracture run (i.e. per square metre) average throughout ice depth. However, (595-435)/595=27% so the lowest 50m of the ice shelf face is subjected to 27% of the torque force, so tensile pull over the lowest 50m of the ice shelf face = 2,380,000 newtons per metre of ice depth per metre of fracture run (i.e. per square metre). The tensile strength of ice varies from 0.7-3.1 MPa so the fracturing force exerted on the ice shelf at the fracture location from 1 metre of SLR would be anywhere between 0.8x and 3.4x that required to fracture it (if ice were infinitely brittle) so it is definitely of the order of magnitude to be very possible based on the 367 m**3 simultaneously per metre of impacted face. ------------------------------ Of course, ice has some ductility & malleability (not perfectly brittle) and tides there are of order 1m to 1.7m, same as that tsunami or somewhat higher, so the ice shelf could not survive tides if it was perfectly brittle. Davis tide table indicates typically 14 hours for the tide to rise 1m to 1.7m but likely the far more rapid impact force of a tsunami SLR (over a few minutes I assume) would not give the ice shelf sufficient time to respond elastically throughout its length and it fractured along its weakest line on the lower face due to the torque exerted. This would open a fracture 7 mm wide at 42 km back from the face if the ice did not yield anywhere except at the fracture so, for example, if the ice bent 90% of the required amount to relieve stress throughout its length then it would open a fracture 0.7 mm wide. This would need structural analysis to figure it out properly. ------------------------------ The line from the centre of the tsunami origin to the centre of the Larsen C ice shelf is at an angle close to perpendicular at Larsen C so SLR would have been applied across a large width of the face simultaneously. The only significant contraindication is that it appears that a straight line across the ocean from the centre of the tsunami origin to the centre of the Larsen C ice shelf might be interrupted by the western edge of Queen Maude Land, in which case there would be no direct wave front across all of the centre of the Larsen C ice shelf but only the portion of the original wave that spreads southwards. Update: Looks like a southern diversion of only 20 degrees of arc from Queen Maude Land coast, so not much, and that diversion looks to make the arriving ripple even more perpendicular at Larsen C. ------------------------------ Extrapolating back in time from the fracture distance increase between 2010-11 and 2015-10 indicates a fracture date of 2002-05 which is 2.5 years before the tsunami so it doesn't support the December 2004 date strongly but given the uncertainty in that method it doesn't rule it out (perhaps there was some initial length of fracture before it started increasing).
On one hand, the findings already suggest rapid breakdown of Thwaites and the suggested solution is to only reduce CO2 emission. Sounds pretty lame for an answer from a scientist.
Bock Keat I understand your frustration (I mean about this, in general I don't know your situation at all) but they can't suggest the obvious of shoring it up with spruce 2x4s because then the plastics industry complains, and if they restrain with plastic netting then it strangles the polar bears or penguins or mermaids or whatever the fuck it is that swims around there. So scientists like Anna are really jammed between a rock and a hard place. So you have to make allowances and not be too judgemental (at least, super-empaths like myself do).
I was watching the video about Thwaites and the speaker mentioned that the sea level rise would effect the north pole's sea level concurrently due to gravity, Earth's rotation and other factors. This means Thwaites has a great potential to also effect the Atlantic Meridional Overturning Circulation situation which has triggered a northern hemispheric ice age in the past. This is documented to involve a sudden, but temporary, southern hemispheric heating which could last over 200 years. This would race the thawing of Antarctica forward before everything gets chilly everywhere for a bitter bit of time. Are any projections of the future adding the rise triggered by Thwaites with the slowdown of the AMOC which we are observing now? I realize that many of the projections I have seen elsewhere do not mention the possibility of an ice age with all of this carbon in the atmosphere, but the probability of this cold spell still concerns me as it is a possibility in the near term
@@WhirledPublishing The water ice vapor has always been on Earth.It would be like a ice cube in a bath tub.I guess you didnt notice where the water level started.
@@jazla111 Are you referring to a "theory" or are you referring to an event that never happened and that has no evidence to substantiate it? If you're confident that you have irrefutable evidence to corroborate the claim of the "ice vapor" that has always been on Earth, I would love to see that evidence. P.S. No such evidence exists.
This would shut down modern society across the world for decades. A billion people displaced (minimum), all world ports under water. Mass famine, war, dogs sleeping with cats, basically the worst of the old testament.
The dogs sleeping with cats is actually pleasant & relaxing (I mean, I assume you're not being rude there because I'm not) like my dear old Mum's Awake & Watchtower that were always taking up room in our wardrobe where my dear old Dad needed room for his boxing gloves & chest expander because he was a talented welterweight amateur. Always the strife for room between the boxing gloves & Jehovah's Witness magazines while I grew up. Anyway it was super bucolic with the dogs, cats, lions, lambs, goats, mouses, pigs, sheeps, cows, wolves & racoons all sleeping together, not like the present Doomsday scenario with Tina Turner at all. Bit crowded though.
With the money being saved on ink for the tiny pictorial scales at 9:13 Anna should have the easy panache of Eric Rignot when Bill Gates decided his slide show was the ideal time to reorganize files for an hour and say "As you don't see here it's far below sea level".
New CO2 added to the atmosphere can last 300 to 1000 years. Every time we drive the car, travel in a plane, buy anything made from far away, eat meat, take a long, hot shower, we are adding CO2. If we committed to de-growth of the economy, that is, buy less of everything and cut our individual CO2 footprint, maybe we can forestall these changes and maybe have a longer time to solve this problem.
This was interesting but not very helpful for our understanding of the Thwaites Glacier. It was quite informative about your methodology. However, and I cannot overemphasize this point, when I turn up the volume to the max, I still must strain to hear the content. Most people don't want to listen to your message, so making it extremely difficult to hear gives folks an easy excuse to ignore you.
To a certain extent over 9 years I've found the videography & audio of climate talks to be almost inversely proportional to the science quality. I've listened to 100 or so of the junk-science drivel ones (packed with time-wasting jokes about cavemen driving SUVs sprinkled with a bit of absurd junk-science rubbish to flesh out the politics-money message) which usually had superb expensive Production Values to accompany their drivel, and listened to several hundred by climate scientists, several of which showed the scientist's mouth or nose as he/she discussed information-packed slides. I recall Dr. Dan Lubin invariably being videoed from the back of the room with persons walking through the view, totally un-focussed slides that looked like they could give you a college education if you could read anything and the occasional sound of a cat in torment interrupting the audio. I think it has generally improved the last few years though, cross fingers.
Geez. Have you guys ever tried to listen to your stuff? A listener can turn the volume all the way up and maybe make out some of the words. Turn. Up. The. Gain. (A lot) Edit: what's the downside? Listeners have to set their volume to "medium"?
@@taterkaze9428 They already said five years - look it up - that was from data gathered a year ago - so guess what the ETA is now - and then remind yourself of what happens when snow is piled up on the roof - a ft thick - ever seen it all slide off in a quick second?
Thwaites glacier is a big glacier in West Antarctica but it is dwarfed by Totten, Lambert, Byrd and some other ice-streams in East Antarctica. A good way to interface science and policy makers is to provide sound science. I think that, when asked about what could be done with more money, Anna Crawford missed the oppportunity to say that to better constrain the futur retreat behavior of Thwaites glacier it would be relevant to precisely characterize the extent of its past retreat and how far it has retreated in the past. I am not sure that constraining the past ice level of the glacier with two reference points which are 250 km apart on either side of the glacier is going to be enough to have a precise idea on this subject. Of course, since she is in the modelisation business, so she thought first to her field.
The research teams are typically relegated to a small region of the Antarctic - they tend to be oblivious to the rapid melting of the other ice shelves and glaciers - they think their region is the one melting faster than all the rest - you're the only person I've seen who seems to be aware of the big picture - the "experts" have numbers, models, guessing games and little else. I've been studying cataclysms for decades and several years ago realized that the domino effect in motion - in the Antarctic - would leave very few survivors - the worst case scenario is far worse than the experts realize.
It's just ridiculous. In my prior Thwaites glacier video Eric Rignot showed a cartoon of what looked like very risque mermaid behaviour at its grounding line while playing the guitar and singing about it. Mind you Eric's a damn sight better than that Justin Bieber or any rappity-hopper so that's a big plus for glaciology in my book.
If the ocean is deeper up-glacier that has a very serious implication. If enough of the under-sea area melts, that could 'float' the glacier up-glacier, and that will massively increase outflows and mobile failure of the glacier.
I thought that could be significant until I got some more info about that glacier and pondered a bit more. The glacier with ~50% of its mass above sea level will have a pressure that's 1.9x the ocean pressure at 1,200 m depth so I think it'll just prohibit water entry beyond a seepage and not be lifted.
so basically you are saying you can predict exactly whats gonna happen when doomsday happens and you get paid to do this work. You sounded optimistic but everything was so negative. All the negative vibes.... I live on the east coast of florida and I feel screwed. Being told this is the size of the UK or Florida doesn't sit well with me and makes me sick. Being told it can break within the next couple years and then more damage after is scary as hell. This will effect everyone eventually!
Sue, this isn't about sea level rise - it's about thousands of colossal glaciers sliding into the sea in a rapid domino effect as they slam into the seafloor and displace massive volumes of seawater that launch colossal tsunami waves - surviving in NZ will be next to impossible.
AbyssGnasher Indeed Florida will become increasingly inhospitable over the coming decades and simply increasingly so into centuries. Your best move depends on your age and situation. If you aren't a kid just stick it out and you'll not likely lose much wealth. If you're a kid have a long-term plan to stick somebody else with the problem and move elsewhere before Real Estate prices get onto the steep down slope this century. I base this entirely on I've heard that it can't by diked because of the soil type. Make sure that's correct first.
Herb Wiseman You might be able to find that information with reasonable accuracy but I'll not be searching for you. There's various information around the Interwebby. You're asking about the pinning areas on either edge that extend into the ocean past the general grounding line.
Well I tell you guys it's like you get a mixed drink at the bar that has ice cubes in it you trying to drink to drink before the ice melts problem solved so the ice is melting you just take it in that is tha way it is
Yes, it is very true that the ocean water is warming quite fast. NOTHING on planet earth is eternal. An ancient Holy Living Book foretold us all about very important truthful information. It sounds like this: "Heaven and Earth will pass away BUT HIS HOLY ETERNAL LIVING WORD will remain forevermore." Is anything you know eternal on this planet/universe except the ONE I have told you? Thank you Beloved Scientists for your tireless effort in the name of 'research.'
Very salient information but the presentation was poor. Tiny auditorium (if filmed in Antarctica fair enough, but something of this magnitude deserves a bigger stage), the speaker uses a lot of gestures which isn't useful with a hand held mic (use a hands free), and the presentation itself was poorly constructed and very scatter brained. Start with who the teams are with the land sea and air projects abd structure, then focus on the modeling types, then go into the details of the model and the results. The presentation seemed in the reverse order. The speaker also needs to work on her speaking style, lots of repetition and stuttering.
The information is conclusive and compelling, but environmental groups would do much more good for the planet fitting Darren Woods and his friends with concrete shoes. Hard for fossil fuel companies to profit if they're feeding fish.
If people at large cared as much as these scientists we wouldn’t be living in a world of misery. Too bad these logical people have decided to abandon humanism and live in academic echo chambers.
Well, it's actually extremely time consuming and brain-taxing work to do physical science well (at least, I found that for me at British school & university and for 53 years of engineering where babbling soon leads to bankruptcy) so mostly there's the time and there must surely be some depressing in having to even acknowledge that this species includes a vast portion of totally-self-interested babbling lying Dunning Kruger fuckwits, so you're expecting a lot to expect them to want death threats against them like has happened. Basically, just to please you.
@@hosnimubarak8869 Paul is saying that the Arctic and Antarctic sea ice and ice shelves have been rapidly melting - for over a decade - because of heat rising up from seafloor volcanoes - while the glaciers are rapidly melting due to heat rising up from volcanoes beneath the glaciers - this fact has been known - and reported - going back several years and yet the "experts" continue to be in denial of this conspicuous elephant in the room. We've even seen volcanoes rise up through the Ross Ice Shelf and erupt - I uploaded a video of this years ago - the heat from those volcanic blasts resulted in thousands of surface lakes across West Antarctica. Since this rapidly-escalating glacial melt results in surface lakes, surface rivers, and moulins which result in colossal waterfalls beneath the glaciers, we know the glaciers are no longer resting on the mountains - thousands of colossal glaciers are floating on top of the colossal waterfalls - while the glaciers are held in place by the rapidly-melting ice shelves - you do the math.
Horrible presentation, so unprepared, uninformative, and down right irritating to watch! Please find someone that understands what they are studying and has the ability to articulate it!
Glaciologists don't understand the physics of rapid glacial melt - and they don't have time to figure it out - that leaves me to explain it. To summarize: Those who want to survive have packed, relocated, stocked up and prepared for several months of hell on Earth - very few survivors are expected - this forecast is based on thousands of independent sources of data, written in over a dozen different languages from all across our Earth - the research includes decades of studying Chemistry and Physics, decades of studying Geological Formations, Wave Propagation and Cataclysms and over 50 years of studying historic documents and old literature from all across our Earth - which relay over 1,000 years of cataclysms - which includes the horrific destruction that occurred in the previous Antarctic decimation. As a Doctoral Scholar with over 50 years multilingual research, spanning thousands of years of reports, I'm also a member of an international research group. I previously served as an Expert Witness to the Court Judges - and subsequently realized the courts are corrupted by greedy lawyers and judges - which came after realizing the Chemistry and Geology that is taught to the public is also corrupted - you can find online that numerous geologists have been exposed as corrupt by congressional hearings, federal investigators, etc. - this includes the former Director of the UGSG.
@@oscarrobert4725 Since hundreds and hundreds of historic documents - written in over a dozen languages from all across our Earth - tell us the true timeline for the cataclysms that have decimated our Earth, geologists, glaciologists, volcanologists, etc., are exposed as ridiculous. Their guessing games, wild imaginings, speculation and claims have captivated the public - most of whom are convinced the "scientists" know the true timeline for our Earth's history - but why believe "scientists say ... chemical analysis proves ... millions of years ago" ... when they have nothing to corroborate or substantiate their "theories" while the true timeline is documented by hundreds of independent sources? When you see these hundreds of documents that are equivalent to a piece of the puzzle - and you put them in their proper place on the timeline - you'll see that the true history of our Earth is very different - and much shorter - than the "experts" are telling us. The documentation by hundreds and hundreds our ancestors also tells us the "biblical timeline" of nearly 6,000 years is also nonsense while thousands of other independent sources - from all across our Earth - corroborates the timeline from our ancestors. When you see the thousands of sources that all point to the same time, you will see when Yellowstone and dozens of other supervolcanoes in North America actually erupted - all in the same night as thousands of smaller volcanoes erupted across five continents - you will also see when the Siberian and Deccan Traps were formed, you will see when and how the tectonic plates were broken and subducted, you will see when and how the massive water erosion occurred across our continents and islands was formed, you will see when and how the stratified layers of the Grand Canyon were formed, when and how the Arabian and Iberian Peninsulas were formed, when and how the Floridian, Caribbean, Yucatan and Olympic Peninsulas were formed, when and how the boot of Italy was formed, when and how the Antarctic mountains and volcanoes were formed, when and how the Antarctic glaciers and ice shelves were formed, when and how the mountains and glaciers of Greenland and Iceland were formed and so on. It's is shocking to see all this documented by our ancestors - but many independent researchers have exposed the timeline lies - when you're able to break free of the lies from the "experts" that are programmed with lies and lunacy, propped up and paraded around - propaganda style - by the billionaires and their millionaire minions that control the multi-million dollar publishing houses that print the lies in schoolbooks and university textbooks as their lies in the fake science magazines that are printed worldwide, along with their idiotic peer-reviewed journals that maintain compiance among the unintelligent fake science gods whose shockingly low IQ's are uploaded online by Psychologists while their C average in Chemistry, Geology, Calculus, etc., from low level institutions with minimal entrance requirements is cloaked by the illusion of "scientist" - when you realize all this, you might be more open minded when I tell you that historic documents tell us that when the dozens of supervolcanoes erupted in the western regions of North America, almost everyone who was living in North America died - since these eruptions coincided with the eruption of thousands of smaller volcanoes and colossal tsunami waves - from the Pacific, Arctic and North Atlantic as the South Atlantic, the Indian Ocean and the Antarctic regions were also decimated by huge tsunami waves - huge icebergs were floating in the ocean ... this horror was documented in different languages by people more than 10,000 miles apart - while the "experts" are completely clueless. During that horrific cataclysm, the only people who survived were in southern Quebec and going south down to Florida - because the volcanic ash and the tsunami waves coming from the Antarctic and North Atlantic killed almost everyone else - since the exact date for this horror is documented with several independent sources corroborating the on-going destruction from the eruptions - for decades - we know that surviving the next cataclysm - which is expected to be far more powerful and destructive - will be even more difficult. I packed and left North America because I felt I wouldn't be able to survive there but some of my research friends independently chose various mountains in the Tennessee and other southern states - surviving in the mountains of Virginia might also be possible but anything further north is a bigger gamble - because of the populations will be competing for resources and because winter temperatures will make survival next to impossible. Since blizzards, hail and freezing temperatures in southern regions are indicative of how deadly the weather can be in the future, I can't recommend any region in North America - but some people are expected to survive there - against all odds. Since the horror of the devastation is expected to go on for several months - with some regions being uninhabitable for decades - because of the on-going volcanic eruptions - to survive the rapidly-approaching destruction will require relocation, stocking up and mentally preparing - those who prefer to take their chances are free to do so - but to be in denial of the obvious meltdown as thousands of colossal glaciers are sliding into the sea is not recommended. Further details are available in the videos on my channel.
I am not an expert but do get the impression that Anna Crawford knows what she's talking about; she just needs some good coaching on public speaking/presenting! And she needs to loose her fear of leaving the audience worried. She majorly back-pedalled when the audience member asked if there was anything to be positive about and virtually destroyed all her research, and point of the presentation by saying "there is positive news because ... we're not sure!". That was really unhelpful (I'm being polite here). Also, saying "oh, our actions can make a difference", which Anna meant to be assuring, does the exact opposite as we've all been observing how little the powers to be have been doing while in possession of the worrying facts.
@@zakainparadise8041 She's clueless - just like all the other glaciologists - and geologists and volcanologists and catastrophists - they're all playing guessing games with their insane wild imaginings - trusting them to give us the "science" of the Antarctic ice is equivalent to asking a group of three year olds to provide a forecast for the rapid meltdown.
This Will Be A Most Interesting CENTURY! Many Will Be Amaze What Will Happen!
It is starting to sound like there's no more "if" Thwaites fails but its now more of a "when" it fails. Is this an accurate assessment at this point?
That is accurate
Yep, sell your Florida real estate.
@@taterkaze9428 My friends in Miami are finally paying attention.
@@taterkaze9428 Sell it to Ron DeSantis.
@@massivecumshot We call him Governor DeSatan here
Seems teams found out new info since this presentation: i.e. 3-5 years til the collapse of the shelf. I am thinking 3 years
Yes but not "since this presentation". It was all presented approximately October-December 2021 and was all the culmination so far of the 1st 4 years (with 4 years still to go) of this large project and all presented since autumn 2021 until now February 2022 was all known to the scientists since like autumn 2021.
Thank you
Great presentation. Thanks!
Wow, interesting talk!!!
Well after yesterday, we are seeing a faster due date. Cheers y’all
The volcanic heating contribution of Antarctica is a jaw-droppingly minuscule 0.076% of the causes of ice loss. Anybody browsing who is interested, find my detailed comment here with all-verifiable quantity details & calculations. You're welcome.
Based on the fracture of the Larsen C ice shelf first being noticed in November 2010, its extent and width at that time and its rate of growth the few years following, I suggest the possibility that the fracture of the Larsen C ice shelf might well have been caused by the Indian Ocean tsunami 26 December 2004 following sea bed earthquake. "The tsunami also reached Antarctica, where tidal gauges at Japan's Showa Base recorded oscillations of up to a metre with disturbances lasting a couple of days".
------------------------------
I see "the sea floor is estimated to have risen by several metres, displacing an estimated 30 of water". If I take the tsunami as radiating in a circle then the radius is 13,000 km at Larsen C ice shelf distance so the quantity of tsunami water per metre of impacted face is 30,000,000,000 / (26,000,000 * pi) = 367 m**3 (this assumes negligible settling of the water during travel). For 1 metre of SLR extending to 367m from the ice shelf face I compute 367 * 42,000 * 10,000 = 154,000,000,000 newton-metres of torque per metre of fracture run at the fracture point using a 42km width. If I assume 350m thick then the tensile pull at the bottom of the fracture from 1m SLR lifting at 42 km from the pivot point = 440,000,000 newtons per metre of fracture run. The tensile pull over 350m thick from 1m SLR lifting over 42 km = 1,260,000 newtons per metre of ice depth per metre of fracture run (i.e. per square metre) average throughout ice depth. However, (595-435)/595=27% so the lowest 50m of the ice shelf face is subjected to 27% of the torque force, so tensile pull over the lowest 50m of the ice shelf face = 2,380,000 newtons per metre of ice depth per metre of fracture run (i.e. per square metre). The tensile strength of ice varies from 0.7-3.1 MPa so the fracturing force exerted on the ice shelf at the fracture location from 1 metre of SLR would be anywhere between 0.8x and 3.4x that required to fracture it (if ice were infinitely brittle) so it is definitely of the order of magnitude to be very possible based on the 367 m**3 simultaneously per metre of impacted face.
------------------------------
Of course, ice has some ductility & malleability (not perfectly brittle) and tides there are of order 1m to 1.7m, same as that tsunami or somewhat higher, so the ice shelf could not survive tides if it was perfectly brittle. Davis tide table indicates typically 14 hours for the tide to rise 1m to 1.7m but likely the far more rapid impact force of a tsunami SLR (over a few minutes I assume) would not give the ice shelf sufficient time to respond elastically throughout its length and it fractured along its weakest line on the lower face due to the torque exerted. This would open a fracture 7 mm wide at 42 km back from the face if the ice did not yield anywhere except at the fracture so, for example, if the ice bent 90% of the required amount to relieve stress throughout its length then it would open a fracture 0.7 mm wide. This would need structural analysis to figure it out properly.
------------------------------
The line from the centre of the tsunami origin to the centre of the Larsen C ice shelf is at an angle close to perpendicular at Larsen C so SLR would have been applied across a large width of the face simultaneously. The only significant contraindication is that it appears that a straight line across the ocean from the centre of the tsunami origin to the centre of the Larsen C ice shelf might be interrupted by the western edge of Queen Maude Land, in which case there would be no direct wave front across all of the centre of the Larsen C ice shelf but only the portion of the original wave that spreads southwards. Update: Looks like a southern diversion of only 20 degrees of arc from Queen Maude Land coast, so not much, and that diversion looks to make the arriving ripple even more perpendicular at Larsen C.
------------------------------
Extrapolating back in time from the fracture distance increase between 2010-11 and 2015-10 indicates a fracture date of 2002-05 which is 2.5 years before the tsunami so it doesn't support the December 2004 date strongly but given the uncertainty in that method it doesn't rule it out (perhaps there was some initial length of fracture before it started increasing).
Very hard to listen well what a pity...bad sound...
On one hand, the findings already suggest rapid breakdown of Thwaites and the suggested solution is to only reduce CO2 emission. Sounds pretty lame for an answer from a scientist.
Agree . To blame on just one issue is lame .
@@ericafiore1624
What would be other issues.
@@hosnimubarak8869 several issues .
@@ericafiore1624
Can you name them?
Bock Keat I understand your frustration (I mean about this, in general I don't know your situation at all) but they can't suggest the obvious of shoring it up with spruce 2x4s because then the plastics industry complains, and if they restrain with plastic netting then it strangles the polar bears or penguins or mermaids or whatever the fuck it is that swims around there. So scientists like Anna are really jammed between a rock and a hard place. So you have to make allowances and not be too judgemental (at least, super-empaths like myself do).
I was watching the video about Thwaites and the speaker mentioned that the sea level rise would effect the north pole's sea level concurrently due to gravity, Earth's rotation and other factors. This means Thwaites has a great potential to also effect the Atlantic Meridional Overturning Circulation situation which has triggered a northern hemispheric ice age in the past. This is documented to involve a sudden, but temporary, southern hemispheric heating which could last over 200 years. This would race the thawing of Antarctica forward before everything gets chilly everywhere for a bitter bit of time. Are any projections of the future adding the rise triggered by Thwaites with the slowdown of the AMOC which we are observing now? I realize that many of the projections I have seen elsewhere do not mention the possibility of an ice age with all of this carbon in the atmosphere, but the probability of this cold spell still concerns me as it is a possibility in the near term
The rapidly melting Antarctic ice is far more life threatening than you realize.
@@WhirledPublishing The water ice vapor has always been on Earth.It would be like a ice cube in a bath tub.I guess you didnt notice where the water level started.
@@jazla111 Are you referring to a "theory" or are you referring to an event that never happened and that has no evidence to substantiate it? If you're confident that you have irrefutable evidence to corroborate the claim of the "ice vapor" that has always been on Earth, I would love to see that evidence. P.S. No such evidence exists.
@@WhirledPublishing Cliffs world wide???
@@jazla111 Are you saying the cliffs are proof of an ice vapor?
This would shut down modern society across the world for decades. A billion people displaced (minimum), all world ports under water. Mass famine, war, dogs sleeping with cats, basically the worst of the old testament.
The dogs sleeping with cats is actually pleasant & relaxing (I mean, I assume you're not being rude there because I'm not) like my dear old Mum's Awake & Watchtower that were always taking up room in our wardrobe where my dear old Dad needed room for his boxing gloves & chest expander because he was a talented welterweight amateur. Always the strife for room between the boxing gloves & Jehovah's Witness magazines while I grew up. Anyway it was super bucolic with the dogs, cats, lions, lambs, goats, mouses, pigs, sheeps, cows, wolves & racoons all sleeping together, not like the present Doomsday scenario with Tina Turner at all. Bit crowded though.
With the money being saved on ink for the tiny pictorial scales at 9:13 Anna should have the easy panache of Eric Rignot when Bill Gates decided his slide show was the ideal time to reorganize files for an hour and say "As you don't see here it's far below sea level".
New CO2 added to the atmosphere can last 300 to 1000 years. Every time we drive the car, travel in a plane, buy anything made from far away, eat meat, take a long, hot shower, we are adding CO2. If we committed to de-growth of the economy, that is, buy less of everything and cut our individual CO2 footprint, maybe we can forestall these changes and maybe have a longer time to solve this problem.
This was interesting but not very helpful for our understanding of the Thwaites Glacier. It was quite informative about your methodology. However, and I cannot overemphasize this point, when I turn up the volume to the max, I still must strain to hear the content. Most people don't want to listen to your message, so making it extremely difficult to hear gives folks an easy excuse to ignore you.
To a certain extent over 9 years I've found the videography & audio of climate talks to be almost inversely proportional to the science quality. I've listened to 100 or so of the junk-science drivel ones (packed with time-wasting jokes about cavemen driving SUVs sprinkled with a bit of absurd junk-science rubbish to flesh out the politics-money message) which usually had superb expensive Production Values to accompany their drivel, and listened to several hundred by climate scientists, several of which showed the scientist's mouth or nose as he/she discussed information-packed slides. I recall Dr. Dan Lubin invariably being videoed from the back of the room with persons walking through the view, totally un-focussed slides that looked like they could give you a college education if you could read anything and the occasional sound of a cat in torment interrupting the audio. I think it has generally improved the last few years though, cross fingers.
I am also first time in this channel
Sea level rise is inevitable. Preparing should be the priority.
Still though the more GHGs in the air the faster will be the SLR. But yes preparation should be a high priority.
Abolishing capitalism should be the priority, as nothing short of that can slow climate change.
Humanity won’t change until it becomes a disaster.
Once again the human disgrace. This planet doesn't need us.....
Or until all fossil fuel exec become compost.
This time though it will be too late. Only nuclear fusion will save us.
Still won't change
Is there any reason Dr Crawford didn't mention the 91 new volcanos that were just discovered underneath the Twaites and Pine Island glaciers?
Of course. Just like a used car salesman cherry-picking data to sell a product.
Why would the timing of the discovery of volcanoes change the rate of increase in melt that we're witnessing?
Geez. Have you guys ever tried to listen to your stuff? A listener can turn the volume all the way up and maybe make out some of the words.
Turn. Up. The. Gain. (A lot)
Edit: what's the downside? Listeners have to set their volume to "medium"?
Ty
At the present rate or even slightly slower degradation of the thwaites ice shelf how long before it crumbles into the sea approx time ,thanks.
time is short my friend
They say "10 years", so assume five.
@@taterkaze9428 They already said five years - look it up - that was from data gathered a year ago - so guess what the ETA is now - and then remind yourself of what happens when snow is piled up on the roof - a ft thick - ever seen it all slide off in a quick second?
February 26th, 2024.
@@WhirledPublishing Yep! old geologist.
Thwaites glacier is a big glacier in West Antarctica but it is dwarfed by Totten, Lambert, Byrd and some other ice-streams in East Antarctica. A good way to interface science and policy makers is to provide sound science. I think that, when asked about what could be done with more money, Anna Crawford missed the oppportunity to say that to better constrain the futur retreat behavior of Thwaites glacier it would be relevant to precisely characterize the extent of its past retreat and how far it has retreated in the past. I am not sure that constraining the past ice level of the glacier with two reference points which are 250 km apart on either side of the glacier is going to be enough to have a precise idea on this subject. Of course, since she is in the modelisation business, so she thought first to her field.
The research teams are typically relegated to a small region of the Antarctic - they tend to be oblivious to the rapid melting of the other ice shelves and glaciers - they think their region is the one melting faster than all the rest - you're the only person I've seen who seems to be aware of the big picture - the "experts" have numbers, models, guessing games and little else.
I've been studying cataclysms for decades and several years ago realized that the domino effect in motion - in the Antarctic - would leave very few survivors - the worst case scenario is far worse than the experts realize.
It's just ridiculous. In my prior Thwaites glacier video Eric Rignot showed a cartoon of what looked like very risque mermaid behaviour at its grounding line while playing the guitar and singing about it. Mind you Eric's a damn sight better than that Justin Bieber or any rappity-hopper so that's a big plus for glaciology in my book.
If the ocean is deeper up-glacier that has a very serious implication. If enough of the under-sea area melts, that could 'float' the glacier up-glacier, and that will massively increase outflows and mobile failure of the glacier.
I thought that could be significant until I got some more info about that glacier and pondered a bit more. The glacier with ~50% of its mass above sea level will have a pressure that's 1.9x the ocean pressure at 1,200 m depth so I think it'll just prohibit water entry beyond a seepage and not be lifted.
so basically you are saying you can predict exactly whats gonna happen when doomsday happens and you get paid to do this work. You sounded optimistic but everything was so negative. All the negative vibes.... I live on the east coast of florida and I feel screwed. Being told this is the size of the UK or Florida doesn't sit well with me and makes me sick. Being told it can break within the next couple years and then more damage after is scary as hell. This will effect everyone eventually!
yes everyone
100% correct, move while you still can.
Yes it will and I live on the island called New Zealand ..😕
Sue, this isn't about sea level rise - it's about thousands of colossal glaciers sliding into the sea in a rapid domino effect as they slam into the seafloor and displace massive volumes of seawater that launch colossal tsunami waves - surviving in NZ will be next to impossible.
AbyssGnasher Indeed Florida will become increasingly inhospitable over the coming decades and simply increasingly so into centuries. Your best move depends on your age and situation. If you aren't a kid just stick it out and you'll not likely lose much wealth. If you're a kid have a long-term plan to stick somebody else with the problem and move elsewhere before Real Estate prices get onto the steep down slope this century. I base this entirely on I've heard that it can't by diked because of the soil type. Make sure that's correct first.
I also take into consideration the very active "RING OF FIRE". It's my understanding lava is hot. Is this also responsible for the ice melt?
It's my understanding lava is hot. No, cold lava here. More like a lava lamp. Excellent question though.
The sun , my dear , the sun !
@@Treeroot2 Reefer Madness !
This fact has been pointed out already by other scientists but being completely ignored to push specific agendas.
How much of the glacier ice shelf is floating and how much is resting on the floor of the seabed?
Sigh.
@@hosnimubarak8869 My feeling exactly.
Herb Wiseman You might be able to find that information with reasonable accuracy but I'll not be searching for you. There's various information around the Interwebby. You're asking about the pinning areas on either edge that extend into the ocean past the general grounding line.
👍👍
This one rates the 2 flippers up.
Please post the video of blue whale
Well I tell you guys it's like you get a mixed drink at the bar that has ice cubes in it you trying to drink to drink before the ice melts problem solved so the ice is melting you just take it in that is tha way it is
Yes, it is very true that the ocean water is warming quite fast. NOTHING on planet earth is eternal. An ancient Holy Living Book foretold us all about very important truthful information. It sounds like this: "Heaven and Earth will pass away BUT HIS HOLY ETERNAL LIVING WORD will remain forevermore." Is anything you know eternal on this planet/universe except the ONE I have told you? Thank you Beloved Scientists for your tireless effort in the name of 'research.'
Umm should you not be on a flat earth site?
I'm also in love with the Scientists. Not so much the bloke though.
Very salient information but the presentation was poor.
Tiny auditorium (if filmed in Antarctica fair enough, but something of this magnitude deserves a bigger stage), the speaker uses a lot of gestures which isn't useful with a hand held mic (use a hands free), and the presentation itself was poorly constructed and very scatter brained. Start with who the teams are with the land sea and air projects abd structure, then focus on the modeling types, then go into the details of the model and the results. The presentation seemed in the reverse order. The speaker also needs to work on her speaking style, lots of repetition and stuttering.
Who came frm a fact video😂😂😂
I also
The information is conclusive and compelling, but environmental groups would do much more good for the planet fitting Darren Woods and his friends with concrete shoes. Hard for fossil fuel companies to profit if they're feeding fish.
If people at large cared as much as these scientists we wouldn’t be living in a world of misery. Too bad these logical
people have decided to abandon humanism and live in academic echo chambers.
Well, it's actually extremely time consuming and brain-taxing work to do physical science well (at least, I found that for me at British school & university and for 53 years of engineering where babbling soon leads to bankruptcy) so mostly there's the time and there must surely be some depressing in having to even acknowledge that this species includes a vast portion of totally-self-interested babbling lying Dunning Kruger fuckwits, so you're expecting a lot to expect them to want death threats against them like has happened. Basically, just to please you.
Under water volcanoes much.
Do explain.
Paul, to hope for intelligent analysis from experts is futile.
@@hosnimubarak8869 Paul is saying that the Arctic and Antarctic sea ice and ice shelves have been rapidly melting - for over a decade - because of heat rising up from seafloor volcanoes - while the glaciers are rapidly melting due to heat rising up from volcanoes beneath the glaciers - this fact has been known - and reported - going back several years and yet the "experts" continue to be in denial of this conspicuous elephant in the room.
We've even seen volcanoes rise up through the Ross Ice Shelf and erupt - I uploaded a video of this years ago - the heat from those volcanic blasts resulted in thousands of surface lakes across West Antarctica.
Since this rapidly-escalating glacial melt results in surface lakes, surface rivers, and moulins which result in colossal waterfalls beneath the glaciers, we know the glaciers are no longer resting on the mountains - thousands of colossal glaciers are floating on top of the colossal waterfalls - while the glaciers are held in place by the rapidly-melting ice shelves - you do the math.
@@WhirledPublishing
But that doesn't explain rapidly warning temperature or the dramatic reduction of arctic sea ice in the arctic.
@@hosnimubarak8869 Check your inbox.
Horrible presentation, so unprepared, uninformative, and down right irritating to watch! Please find someone that understands what they are studying and has the ability to articulate it!
Glaciologists don't understand the physics of rapid glacial melt - and they don't have time to figure it out - that leaves me to explain it.
To summarize: Those who want to survive have packed, relocated, stocked up and prepared for several months of hell on Earth - very few survivors are expected - this forecast is based on thousands of independent sources of data, written in over a dozen different languages from all across our Earth - the research includes decades of studying Chemistry and Physics, decades of studying Geological Formations, Wave Propagation and Cataclysms and over 50 years of studying historic documents and old literature from all across our Earth - which relay over 1,000 years of cataclysms - which includes the horrific destruction that occurred in the previous Antarctic decimation.
As a Doctoral Scholar with over 50 years multilingual research, spanning thousands of years of reports, I'm also a member of an international research group. I previously served as an Expert Witness to the Court Judges - and subsequently realized the courts are corrupted by greedy lawyers and judges - which came after realizing the Chemistry and Geology that is taught to the public is also corrupted - you can find online that numerous geologists have been exposed as corrupt by congressional hearings, federal investigators, etc. - this includes the former Director of the UGSG.
@@WhirledPublishing Could you say what the disaster(s) will be? Where is a good place to go? How about Pa?
@@oscarrobert4725 Since hundreds and hundreds of historic documents - written in over a dozen languages from all across our Earth - tell us the true timeline for the cataclysms that have decimated our Earth, geologists, glaciologists, volcanologists, etc., are exposed as ridiculous. Their guessing games, wild imaginings, speculation and claims have captivated the public - most of whom are convinced the "scientists" know the true timeline for our Earth's history - but why believe "scientists say ... chemical analysis proves ... millions of years ago" ... when they have nothing to corroborate or substantiate their "theories" while the true timeline is documented by hundreds of independent sources?
When you see these hundreds of documents that are equivalent to a piece of the puzzle - and you put them in their proper place on the timeline - you'll see that the true history of our Earth is very different - and much shorter - than the "experts" are telling us.
The documentation by hundreds and hundreds our ancestors also tells us the "biblical timeline" of nearly 6,000 years is also nonsense while thousands of other independent sources - from all across our Earth - corroborates the timeline from our ancestors.
When you see the thousands of sources that all point to the same time, you will see when Yellowstone and dozens of other supervolcanoes in North America actually erupted - all in the same night as thousands of smaller volcanoes erupted across five continents - you will also see when the Siberian and Deccan Traps were formed, you will see when and how the tectonic plates were broken and subducted, you will see when and how the massive water erosion occurred across our continents and islands was formed, you will see when and how the stratified layers of the Grand Canyon were formed, when and how the Arabian and Iberian Peninsulas were formed, when and how the Floridian, Caribbean, Yucatan and Olympic Peninsulas were formed, when and how the boot of Italy was formed, when and how the Antarctic mountains and volcanoes were formed, when and how the Antarctic glaciers and ice shelves were formed, when and how the mountains and glaciers of Greenland and Iceland were formed and so on.
It's is shocking to see all this documented by our ancestors - but many independent researchers have exposed the timeline lies - when you're able to break free of the lies from the "experts" that are programmed with lies and lunacy, propped up and paraded around - propaganda style - by the billionaires and their millionaire minions that control the multi-million dollar publishing houses that print the lies in schoolbooks and university textbooks as their lies in the fake science magazines that are printed worldwide, along with their idiotic peer-reviewed journals that maintain compiance among the unintelligent fake science gods whose shockingly low IQ's are uploaded online by Psychologists while their C average in Chemistry, Geology, Calculus, etc., from low level institutions with minimal entrance requirements is cloaked by the illusion of "scientist" - when you realize all this, you might be more open minded when I tell you that historic documents tell us that when the dozens of supervolcanoes erupted in the western regions of North America, almost everyone who was living in North America died - since these eruptions coincided with the eruption of thousands of smaller volcanoes and colossal tsunami waves - from the Pacific, Arctic and North Atlantic as the South Atlantic, the Indian Ocean and the Antarctic regions were also decimated by huge tsunami waves - huge icebergs were floating in the ocean ... this horror was documented in different languages by people more than 10,000 miles apart - while the "experts" are completely clueless.
During that horrific cataclysm, the only people who survived were in southern Quebec and going south down to Florida - because the volcanic ash and the tsunami waves coming from the Antarctic and North Atlantic killed almost everyone else - since the exact date for this horror is documented with several independent sources corroborating the on-going destruction from the eruptions - for decades - we know that surviving the next cataclysm - which is expected to be far more powerful and destructive - will be even more difficult.
I packed and left North America because I felt I wouldn't be able to survive there but some of my research friends independently chose various mountains in the Tennessee and other southern states - surviving in the mountains of Virginia might also be possible but anything further north is a bigger gamble - because of the populations will be competing for resources and because winter temperatures will make survival next to impossible.
Since blizzards, hail and freezing temperatures in southern regions are indicative of how deadly the weather can be in the future, I can't recommend any region in North America - but some people are expected to survive there - against all odds.
Since the horror of the devastation is expected to go on for several months - with some regions being uninhabitable for decades - because of the on-going volcanic eruptions - to survive the rapidly-approaching destruction will require relocation, stocking up and mentally preparing - those who prefer to take their chances are free to do so - but to be in denial of the obvious meltdown as thousands of colossal glaciers are sliding into the sea is not recommended.
Further details are available in the videos on my channel.
Dont bother
people say these are fake
DR. Dingbat probably just hurt the effort! Bla Bla Bla, many words that say nothing!
I am not an expert but do get the impression that Anna Crawford knows what she's talking about; she just needs some good coaching on public speaking/presenting! And she needs to loose her fear of leaving the audience worried. She majorly back-pedalled when the audience member asked if there was anything to be positive about and virtually destroyed all her research, and point of the presentation by saying "there is positive news because ... we're not sure!". That was really unhelpful (I'm being polite here). Also, saying "oh, our actions can make a difference", which Anna meant to be assuring, does the exact opposite as we've all been observing how little the powers to be have been doing while in possession of the worrying facts.
@@zakainparadise8041 She's clueless - just like all the other glaciologists - and geologists and volcanologists and catastrophists - they're all playing guessing games with their insane wild imaginings - trusting them to give us the "science" of the Antarctic ice is equivalent to asking a group of three year olds to provide a forecast for the rapid meltdown.
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LOL Fear Fear fear Shame Shame Shame. Propaganda
I heard that she's a member of The Junior Anti-Sex League. Possibly only gossip but there's no smoke without fire.