Wide Receivers to Target & Avoid in 2024 Rookie Drafts
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- Опубліковано 25 чер 2024
- Wide Receivers to Target & Avoid in 2024 Rookie Drafts
Bush is back to unveil a video that is months in the making, the FSE WR prospect model is officially here and it is revealing some of the biggest WRs to target and avoid in 2024 Dynasty rookie drafts
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Timestamps
00:00 Intro
01:15 The FSE Prospect Model Goal
04:35 Was the Model Predictive
06:00 How I Built the Model
09:00 Benchmarks of Elite WRs
10:30 Grading Ja’Marr & CeeDee to Showcase how the model works
16:10 Prospect Tiers and Hit Rates
17:15 Rookie Draft Tiers based on Draft Capital
18:18 Grading the 2024 WR Class
19:28 Marvin Harrison and Malik Nabers
20:30 Rome Odunze
22:00 Xavier Worthy
23:15 Brian Thomas Jr
25:15 Xavier Legette & Ricky Pearsall
27:10 Ladd McConkey & Keon Coleman
29:50 Ja’Lynn Polk & Adonai Mitchell
31:50 3rd Round WRs
33:35 2024 WR Sleepers
38:45 Comparing 2024 vs 2023
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Tags: fantasy stock exchange,fantasy football advice,2024 dynasty fantasy football,2024 fantasy football,fantasy football 2024,fantasy flock,brian thomas jr,fantasy football sleepers,rookie mock draft,dynasty rookie rankings,fantasy stock exchange rookie draft,wrs to target and avoid,xavier worthy,troy franklin,marvin harrison jr,fantasy football,fantasy football players to draft,dynasty fantasy football strategy,dynasty rookie draft,dynasty decisions - Розваги
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10 minutes into the vid and can confidently say you are putting in more work than any other dynasty creators right now and I guarantee this channel will blow up soon because of it. Good stuff!
I 100% agree, I’m grateful to have found this channel 👍
And doing it while sipping margs in Mexico!!! 🇲🇽 🍹
Thanks boss! means a lot
The best dynasty fantasy content channel by far right here. Keep it up boys!
We will!
THANK YOU FOR PUTTING IN THE WORK TO BRING US THIS VIDEO!
You bet!
Thx for putting in that work man!
Nice work. Thanks for your efforts.
As someone who loves numbers this is amazing!! 🙌
DUDE THANK YOU puttin in the work with it shown
Appreciate the hard work!!!
Great content, thanks for all the work you put in on this!
This was the exact video I had been looking for! Thank you!
Glad it was helpful!
Very good work!
Awesome video, very well researched and presented
This is incredible. Wow
Great content! Thank you.
Very impressed with your quality of work and even more so with your application of these models. Love seeing this level of analysis in this application. I’m a relatively recent subscriber, but this video by itself solidified this channel as a favorite. Keep up the great work!
Thanks boss!
Great video!
Love it man thank you!!
Any time!
Great work!
Thank you! Cheers!
This is some awesome stuff my dude, thank u!!
Glad you like it!
Awesome work as always man! Much love.
Much appreciated!
This video was the hopium I needed after Odunze, Franklin, Polk were my picks
Great vid
Instant subscribe. Great work!
Thanks boss!
Lit video bro. Grinding paying off
Great video
Just subscribed. SUPER impressed by your advanced stats and evals! Glad I found you before I completed the 2nd round of my rookie draft (I can confidently say I didn't need you for round 1 - I got MHJ and Nabers). Because of you, I'm looking to target Polk and Franklin late in my rookie draft. Keep up the great work!
Should be a great option there!
Impressive work!
Thanks a lot!
Amazing work here!
Thanks a lot!
Excellent video wow
This was unbelievably excellent
Some of the best information out there. Well done.
Much appreciated!
This is really an amazing chancel. Subbed !!!
Thanks!!
What a great work and video, help me a lot for my rookie draft list, thank you very much!!! Also gread Hoodie.
Thanks boss! Glad it was helpful
Appreciate the hard work. This video made me make a UA-cam "Fantasy Football" folder to go back to. Thanks!
Hit the Sub!
Put that work in! Subbed!!!!!
Thanks for the sub!
killer info
Great content. Just what I was looking for with my rookie draft coming up in a few weeks. Thanks for putting all the hard work in.
Thanks, will do!
You did a nice job for me personally after round 1 going from being ok with a small group of players to there being guys I want (or avoid) with each pick.
Incredible video brother. You had me at R^2
Good work as always boys!
Thanks again!
Dude is putting in work
Awesome stuff! I can't wait to see how the rbs did in your new model!
Gonna be a bit still, haven’t gotten around to building it much, but will drop a rudimentary version on Wednesday
Have drafted Franklin, Cowing, and Coker in all my leagues this year thanks to you. Great video. Let’s hope one or two of them hit
Honestly a tremendously helpful and insightful video. No BS just hard facts and probability
Thanks boss!
Appreciate all your work! Have followed this channel since midway through 2022's season, and the info/presentation is the best FF stuff on youtube imo. Keep it up!
Just finished drafting rookies in my 1QB home league. Got Worthy 1.07, Benson 1.09, Polk 2.04, and Franklin 2.08. Going for a second straight championship this year!
Nice looking pull for the rookie draft!
Outstanding systematic approach! Love the math of it!
Thank you!
Elite information
been waiting for the model videos
Thanks!
Amazing job bud 👏 I am very happy to be adding Nabers and Worthy to my already championship stack wr room of Chase,Lamb, T.Hill,G.Wilson
Great video! Making me feel better about my draft class of Caleb Williams, Malik Nabers, and Trey Benson that I just finished with 😎
Great Video! Wish I had it for my rookie draft yesterday!
Tried to get it out asap!
Great content, I was waiting for you to drop this video because this similar content helped me last year. Rookie draft tomorrow for 1QB and hoping I can track down something similar with RBs
Going to be dropping tomorrow!
@@FantasyStockExchange thanks for the response
Best video I’ve ever watched🔥
Wow thanks!
This is insane work! Appreciate the insights man. Gonna try to grab Worthy and McConkey while having my eye on Johnny Wilson for the Eagles
this is insane homie.. I love this. Drafted a couple days ago and ended up with Nabers, Polk, Javon Baker, Jermaine Burton, Ainis Smith (waivers)
Nice!
Great video! It’s a perfect prospect model - would love if you layered in placements post draft with another numerical rating (maybe projected offensive rankings or QB ranking).
That’s a great idea for the current prospects but the issue would be backdating that to the previous years
This is awesome. Yeah for some reason I get the Metchie vibes with Mitchell and the DGB vibes with BTJ and this model completely helps you see that bust potential.
My guess would be one of those guys hits and one misses
One of the best dynasty vids I have ever seen
appreciate you Marcus!
Above and beyond. You’re a man of the people
Appreciate ya boss!
Great work Bush!!! Got me pumped now!!
In my 12 team SF TEP Start 11 (6 WR's), I had five 24 1sts, and my only legit WR was London.
Just added Lamb via trade (two 1sts), and still had 3 picks left for MHJ/Nabers/Worthy!!!
WR room went from #11 to #1 in the league according to Dynasty Daddy!
Bush hasnt slept in days 😂 love the dedication to the content
Amazing content. Excellent job and thank you so much for sharing this information with us Dynasty nuts.
anytime!
This is legit. Thank you!
You're welcome!
Love video. But still haven’t seen your big board with all your stats on WRs like the rbs.
Made a few trades in the first round of one of my rookie drafts, here is the net:
Sent/used:
1.05, 1.07, 1.08, JSN, Jameson Williams, Kendre Miller.
Received:
MHJ, Drake Maye, Bowers.
Ended up trading Kendre and Jameo for 1.12, then 1.07, JSN, and 1.12 for MHJ. Maybe an over pay since Rome was on the board at 7, but now my WR room is Justin Jefferson, MHJ, Puka, Olave, Smitty, and Aiyuk.
Amazing content! Completely agree with the model on BT being between QJ and Aiyuk as a prospect. I wasn't a fan of him in the early draft process due to his "wind sprints" route tree. But he's grown on me as a prospect. The kicker that makes me draft him constantly is the landing spot in Jacksonville. They desperately looked for a reliable RZ threat last year and Ridley was #1 in RZ targets and is gone now. I think BT can take a bunch of those targets early and continue to grow as a RR
Are you planning on doing something similar for the other positions? That would be awesome. This is super good stuff
That's the plan at RB, did a condensed version the other day called RBs to target and avoid and currently building the RB prospect model
Did you talk about Malik Washingston? or did I miss?
Very interesting video and well thought out process. You model agrees with my suspicions about Troy Franklin. Got it, he has parts of his game that are concerning, as do most rookies. Everyone is loving on Corley and hating Franklin. Watch Corley's tape. He can catch screens
Absolutely
awesome video, I did wanna ask why Roman Wilson is in the Waiver Wire tier? Is that just production and things of that nature? Do you agree with the model in this instance?
I do yes, his production profile was really sub-par and he’s undersized, basically a much worse version of Marvin Mims on film to me as well
What kind of analysis went into deciding the weights of each statistic or category in the model inputs?
Lot of trial and error, plus leaning on some studies that I’ve done in the past like the WRs to target and avoid vid last year & an article by Ryan Heath of fantasy points that studied stickiness of metrics
In major rebuild mode. Have 1.03, 1.05, 1.06, 1.07
Would you go Nabers at 3 and then Maye, Odunze, Bowers and try to get Penix or Nix in 2nd?
Or go Daniels at 3, then Maye, Odunze, Bowers?
Could also substitute McCarthy for bowers spot I suppose.. curious your thoughts
I got MHjr at 1.03, Jaylen Wright at 2.09, and Jermaine Burton at 3.09, 12tm SF no TEp PPR
Dynasty 1 qb league. Should I trade Puka for Nabers and JSN? I love Puka but this feels too good to pass up.
Best video out there for predicting duds. Its always hard to find the hidden gems but I feel like these videos give you a good idea who to stay away from.
Glad you like them!
Where do you get the data you use to build the model?
Had the 1.02, 2.09, 3.02, and 4.02 in the Dynasty Land Bravo League with very little assets on my team. Couldn’t love back from the 1.02 so I took MHJ to pair with Kyler. Then traded the 2.02 in draft for the 2.07, 2.08, and 3.08. My draft ended up MHJ(1.02), Adonai(2.07), Franklin(2.08), Polk(2.09), McMillan(3.02), Ray Davis(3.08), and Tyrone Tracy(4.02). I was definitely happy with this haul and feel like I have a decent WR room now to go with Dell, Meyers, Mingo.
I'm on the clock at the 2.09. Choices Polk, Leggett and Franklin, who would you suggest?
Legette, Franklin & Polk is how I have it ranked
Can you make a guide on running backs?
Just dropped it off
I have Richardson, Love, and Minshew as my QBs in 12team SF. I’ve been leaning on drafting Nabers at the 1.03 over Daniels. Am I crazy?
Hey Brotha, youre in the flock discord right? Had a couple questions for you if youre in there!
Yessir @Bushfse
Appreciate the hard work and thoroughness, thanks! Curious on your WR rookie dynasty vs. redraft rankings. NFL team context seems to factor big for lower graded prospects who hit (St. Brown, Nacua, Ridley, Metcalf, Dell). WRs who don't flash by Yr2 typically washout, and team context matters for early success. Thoughts on adding NFL team context to model? A few expectations:
1) + M Harrison: expect success game 1, X Worthy not a slam dunk but valuable by 2nd half of 2024 season
2) - M Nabers: landing spot terrifies me... NYG... a place WRs are sent to die
3) - R Odunze: it's going to be a while... rookie QB development, 2 other established star WRs
4) + K Coleman, L McConkey and T Franklin: target share=production, all 3 will play a lot out of necessity
5) ? B Thomas: mix bag of factors in JAX, not sure what to think
6) - X Legette: 2 older possession WRs so decent opportunity.. but CAR track record and B Young... yuck
7) Wildcard R Pearsall: tight distribution in SF -> only 4 skill players will be productive... if D Samuel is traded?
I'd love to be able to find a way, the tough thing would be actually quantifying it
Just spit balling maybe it gives like a "Landing spot grade"
Which could use some of the following factors
1. Average PPG of the offense the previous 2 years
2. Vegas win total entering the year
3. Something for target competition? this one would be tough maybe like average PPR PPG the last 2 years prior of WR1, WR2, TE1 of the offense, etc.
4. Run/Pass Ratios of some kind
Like I said not impossible, but somewhat challenging to do quantitively
I could also just give them a landing spot Letter grade in my own personal opinion the tough thing though is grading prospects from past years landing spots based on their team situation
Probably best if I found 4-5 factors that were numbers based
@@FantasyStockExchange Good short list of quantifiable variables (decent correlation is likely), might like the subjective eyeball test even more though (NFL has become increasingly variable Year-over-Year). Things like coaching changes, player movement, and projected role (like slot vs. X) might make the most impact.
I'm a demand planning director by trade, so I know how uncomfortable incorporating subjective variables can be. I also know my gut-instinct expectations have been correct far more often than incorrect. I've watched your channel for a few years, you know what you're doing... I think you'd do a great job landing on a letter grade for NFL team context if you decide to go that route.
this video is fire. can you do this for the running backs now? lol
I'm working on it haha, gonna be an abbreviated version that I do on Wednesday hopefully I can build the full RB model in Italy when I go in 3 weeks
@@FantasyStockExchangeyou are the man. This is the type of videos I live for
💯
I like Baker but I've heard so many conflicting views on Franklin but you definitely swayed him in my direction.
Honestly, they're too cheap to care if they miss
If it comes down to McConkey or Coleman at the 1.12, I’m going to have a tough choice. What do you think?
Will you a similar video for RBs and QBs?
I’m working on the RB model, but unfortunately the RBs to target and avoid video will be last years version, may drop a video in June/July about the RB class if I can
Got AD Mitchell at the 3.06 in my 10 team SF draft last night. Was down to either him or Marshawn Lloyd, so went with AD.
Yeh Mitchell at that point is excellent value
If you're picking at 2.08, do you like Legette or Troy Franklin better? I get the landmine label on Legette but is he a better or worse bet than Franklin?
I would select Legette, can’t quite go that far gotta respect the capital a bit
Is the full model available on the flock site?
It will be yes!
Are there any things you found you wanna tweak for the model now that youve seen the results of it?
Yeh I made some adjustments on the fly based on prospects that were scoring high & low that shouldn’t have definitely would like to see how it performs over the next year or 2 and making tweaks from there
can you explain how lagette is a landmine and ladd is solid even though they were only taken 3 picks apart and have somewhat similar grades?
Legette was drafted round 1 so he's a landmine because he was over drafted, the model viewed him as a boom or bust round 2 WR
That being said about Malik nabers. Should I trade Gibbs and olave for Nabers and Chase Brown?? Dynasty super flex 12 man
No!!!
Would you trade the likely 1.01 or 1.02 1QB league for Rome Odunze?
Next years? I probably would tbh, but it depends where your team is at
12 team superflex.
I give away 1.12, 2.01
Receive
1.03 (Malik Nabers)
My other wr: Olave, Higgins, Aiyuk, Drake London, Quentin Johnston, Godwin, Dontayveon Wicks
I also have the and 1.10 and 1.11 (thinking Worthy and Brooks)
Gimme Nabers by a country mile
I love Jacob Cowing. He still had a great season with the top receiver in 2025 in Arizona. I think he will be a sleeper with Malik Washington as well.
Absolutely!
Where is the model on Flock Fantasy I can’t find it?
Unfortunately I haven't found a good way to post it, gonna make an abbreviated version this week - want to ideally integrate it right into the site, but having some trouble as of now
Tuff I drafted Rome Wilson over Franklin pain.. are you doing this for next years draft?
Absolutely & yeah I definitely wouldn’t have done that personally, we’ll see how it pans out
Love the video, for sure earned my like and subscribe. Looking forward to next years already!
My 2024 dynasty rookie draft:
2024 1st Rd - 1.01 WR Marvin Harrison
2024 1st Rd - 1.02 WR Malik Nabers
2024 1st Rd - 1.06 WR Rome Odunze
2024 2nd Rd - 2.05 RB Blake Corum
2024 2nd Rd - 2.07 WR Keon Coleman
2024 3rd Rd - 3.07 RB Jaylen Wright
2024 3rd Rd - 3.09 RB Ray Davis
2024 3rd Rd - 3.10 RB Braelon Allen
2024 4th Rd - 4.04 RB Tyrone Tracy
2024 5th Rd - 5.01 TE Theo Johnson
2024 5th Rd - 5.04
2024 5th Rd - 5.06
(i drafted in the 4th slot btw... lol)
I netted a ton of this capital from selling mainly Javonte Williams, Brock Purdy, Kyren Williams, Jameson Williams, with a few a bunch of trades during the draft involving moving in every direction and selling off bench players.
It should be noted that my QBs are Mahomes and Burrow in a 10 team super flex, 2 rb, 3wr, 3 flex, 1 te.
I thnk this draft class is special and I think i did well :D
Hey mate, seems youre high here on Franklin going off the model but you talked about how you had some serious issue with his film in his profile video before the draft and that we shouldn't draft purely off the numbers, not meaning to criticize but arent you having a bet each way here? Or is the model score so strong that youre not worried about the film issues as much now? Thanks
I was worried about the film when I thought Franklin would be a top 15 rookie pick, since he slid to day 3 he’s routinely available around pick 2.09-3.03 - nothing changed with his film, I still have those concerns, what changed is the price & at this new price I’m all in