An Evening with Niall Ferguson
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- Опубліковано 22 тра 2016
- The Scottish-born Harvard University professor, known for his provocative and contrarian views on international history and economic policy, discusses his life and work. Ferguson is a prolific commentator, a contributing editor to the Financial Times, and is the author of 11 books. In 2011, his film company released its first feature-length documentary, Kissinger, which won Best Documentary at the New York International Film Festival.
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A huge thank you to the Sydney opera house and promoters for making this talk available, I've read all Niall's books and it's great to hear him to live too.
Thank you!
6 months before Trump is elected he foretells what populism would lead to. Anti immigrant, the Wall and Tariffs and followers would accept nothing less. Also says The China tariffs are going to be serious. (Niall also called the subprime crises a couple of years before it crashed) Stock Market investors best not ignore trading war becoming a growing trend and what that entails
half way through, I had to scroll down and knew Trump was the demogod, that is crazy. I will definitely use his analog when speaking about the melting pot, excellent example.
Marvelous to know that he is married to such a brilliant woman and also an intellectual at Hoover.
Thanks. Sadly I was not in the audience.
A
I have all his books. Absolutely fascinating
@1:10:37 I like how he has to bash Paul Krugman even when he travels abroad
He bashes everyone!👎🏼
well I like Niall's understanding. Unfortunately time scales escape peoples broader understanding as they live and think in the moment. What is happening in this year as it gains perspective in your understanding is not what is actually guiding the world. Looking for patterns and key moments shows that we are repeating ourselves over and over. Our countries all like to think they guide events but they are really stumbling through the repeating patterns of history and learning little along the way. But hey! it's good to think you're in the driving seat! And when it goes off course you can always say "no one could see that coming", well not with your eyes closed and no perspective of how history repeats itself.
Genial.
Sempre impecável!.. palestra fenomenal! ☺👌
My gosh, he was right about Trump's election!
He says it wasn't culture but ideas that led to western ascendency. Culture IS ideas. Ideas make up culture.
It can be technology too. The Dutch Golden Age was basically caused by the invention of the wind powered sawmill, making it possible to build a major fleet quickly.
Surely, culture is a *subset* of ideas: it's the ideas and habits which happen to deal with society and relationships. But there is a virtually limitless number of other types of ideas. As UpYours points out, technology is ideas about products. Other ideas are scientific, philosophical, or ideological, recreational, mystical or mythological.
14:30 Not just ideas, but ideas AND institutions, which is where he said he differs from Deidre McCluskey.
Love The Sesrchers! Ferguson was pretty good with a foreigner's analysis of Trump at the time, and aquitted himself well in hindsight. Working class people in my neck of the woods were so fed up with political correctness (which in many ways is a puritanical reaction to the excesses unleashed in the "boomer's" sexual revolution) Trump was a very naughty boy with a sailor's tongue and NBC thought they destroyed him with the release of that hot mic episode. Four years later they are still harpooning their whale, now coated with hydroxychloroquine.
If Chinese can see this speech earlier, they will understand what's happening.
I love Mr Ferguson's work. I have no interest in Trump or increased tariffs but I think Mr Ferguson should come to my village in Norfolk, UK and tell immigration is not a problem. I was racially abused by Turkish man (in the nastiest way..not a joke) in his shop in the town for no reason other than being English. There are serious problems with social cohesion here. It is massive and a genuine concern. But I suppose the negative results he predicts are the same weather or not he has seen the reality on the ground. He just sounds like a "politician historian" who is disconnected from factual events for ordinary people.
National polls as a predictor of election outcomes a year or six months before election day is similar to predicting exchange rates a year ahead. These are genuine unknown, unknowns and to use polls to predict public moods a year ahead is simply infantile.
Niall gets this wrong. Institutions are derived from culture. When the colonial powers gave independence to their non-European colonies, they bequeathed them the infrastructure, the civil service, education, police and other institutions based on the liberal European model. In almost all cases the post-Colonial countries descended into chaos and dictatorship or violent civil-war within a few years. Similarly when new countries were explicitly modelled on the European/US model such as Liberia, the non-European populace destroyed civilization equally quickly. Conversely when European pioneers taking just spades and seeds settled new territories in the Americas and South Africa, the institutions of liberal Western society developed naturally. African-American cities in the US such as Baltimore and Detriot that have not adopted European culture are as corrupt and as violent as cities in Africa, despite modern institutions. Institutions are neither necessary (to start with) nor sufficient for civilization, but culture is.
I agree basically. Culture is underpinned by and produced by religious beliefs; I mean, beliefs about what reality is.
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According to Thomas Sowell, the African American culture destroying many parts of the US is derived not from Africa, but from the Southern hillbilly (Anglo-celtic) culture, which itself is derived from the peasant traditions of north-western Britain.
The cookbook to inequality recipe is the twinkie deal, CEOs pay raise Rises 400% and the Baker's get an unleveling sifting pay cut. ( GOOD OLD AMERICA CAPITALIST DEMOCRACY. )
I'll forgive Ferguson's club tie beause I think it's intentional.
Neil’s description of the retreat and avoidance of intellectuals from popular politics is very telling. The absence of ideas flowing fore critique ( name-calling) is telling. Labour are retreating to ‘nationalisation’ instead or progressive democratisation and decentralisation of politics and the economy. Also digging in when wrong - Remoaners - is the stupid order of the day of so-called intellectuals.
Very enjoyable. However, I think his subtle boast about having read the sub-prime mortgage crisis is a bit a) cringe worthy and b) unsubstantiated. A select few investors bet against the housing market and made a fortune from it, and Mr Ferguson would have us believe he knew from researching his book? I fancy his story there has a fair bit of creative licence applied to it.
1:04:13 - The attitude that made the sexual revolution possible, caused Baby Boomers to try to remove themselves from the normal progression of human life -- they were always to be in the adolescent-to-young-adult category, and never to be fertile in any productive sense.
You think that the protestant work ethic didn't contribute to the legacy of the West? Niall, you don't even understand the protestant work ethic. It had little to do with material gain; that was just a lucky side effect. The purpose was religious asceticism - The new testament battle against the flesh. In older times puritans, protestants and others would fast excessively, whip themselves on the back with lashes till they were bloody, and go to barbarous measures to abstain from sexuality in their battle against the flesh and desire to be one with the Spirit. Most sects of protestants finally settled on a more realistic spiritual ascetic that involved a lifetime of manual labor as a good middle ground. It was spiritual, not capitalistic. Capitalism combined with a religious people who worked hard for spiritual reasons is absolutely a strong part of the West's legacy. The Amish are a living relic of those times.
I'll bet that these hardworking, decent folk would've done much the same sans the rantings of ancient, desert-dwelling schizophrenics...
As are the Quakers, known in Latin America as Los Amigos.
51:19 -- Ferguson was right about this point. Trump really HAS tried to keep his promises, as stupid as they were.
Try, TRY! Any idiot can argue that they have TRIED to keep political promises. It turns out almost all (deliberately or not) do not succeed...
POTUS has kept many of his promises, especially but not exclusively to those who supported him in 2016. Ending the nefarious practice of selling the brains and beating hearts of late term aborted babies may seem stupid to you but to me life begins at conception; so the murders of millions of babies across the world, with the help of Bill and Melinda Gates, is a tragedy equal to the bombing of Hiroshima and Nagasaki.
When one talks about the Empire being 'good on balance', Niall obviously has no idea how India for example, would have developed without being ruled by the British for 200 years. India may have done very well if the country has been just a trading partner. One can never know!
he is right.america soon wont be no1
China numbah wan!
I LIKE NIALL
Tendentious misunderstanding of Trump and his appeal. Trump was not 'anti-immigration' he, like most of his supporters, against unmanaged and unmanageable incursions by hoards of unknowns who could not contribute to the US but would bring their own unproductive impoverished culture, disease, violence and crime. For some Islamic countries he applied a very high bar for entry to the US, but he didn't prevent it.
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On the home front Trump saw a significant reduction in unemployment for the lower paid groups; Biden has seen its reversal, along with hiking in prices of every day staples which hurt those on lower incomes in pursuit of climate and energy fantasies.
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With respect to his foreign policy pronouncements, he was not going to show his plans to his rivals. No negotiator announces his strategy prior to the negotiation. Trump was following that practice along with his personal 'psyops' to keep the enemy off guard. It worked. Now we've got a fumbling fool in the WH, leading an administration of incompetent ideologues and look what we have!
Dagwould, I would have to disagree and Mr. Ferguson quoted some of the diluted quotes from Trump, mind you before he was elected. The Muslim band, the degenerates from Mexico, trying to cancel visa for students, and the Mexican border issues, etc...so saying Trump was not anti-immigration is a lie. Now, looking back at all of the cutting of regulations, we start see the diasterous effects it had...train wrecks, bank collapses, CEOs pay gap divides, spike in hate crimes, Mexico gonna build the wall and diverted DoD funds to start it, botched COVID response, etc.... So you can disagree on what President Biden is doing all day but you can't neglect the fact that those deregulations and trying to keep those campaign promises did't happen in a vacuum, they materialize some day and ask the town in Ohio how that repealing of the brakes is working out. What Mr. Ferguson stated have surprisingly came true, looking back at this 6 years ago. Lastly, I don't want go back and forth about Trump vs Biden, but to highlight the things you point out as just not true, especially how Mr. Ferguson suggested, you have to look at the past to see where you're going in the future and many other thought the same and that is why Trump was a one-time president.
What a guttersnipe.
Went over your head, did it?
Economic shocks like 2008 are quite rare? What a complete load of rubbish. 1870's, 1930s and 2008 - 2013 compromise entire generations and in the context of human lives, 3 massive disturbances in 140 years has GREATLY impacted every second generation at the very least. That's a MASSIVE amount of economic insecurity. Both of my grandfather's careers were destroyed by the great depression and my career was severely affected by the great recession. Only a blind supporter of unfettered captialism who lives in an ivory tower (away from the suffering) could come to such an idiotic conclusion. Some of his analysis is okay, but when he says things like that, It's clear to me how seriously out of touch he is with the every day person.
2020: where is Neil talking about the Recipe for Leftist Totalitarianism?
Re analyzing Trump, Ferguson's IQ drops to 60
Trump 2020.
N. Ferguson may rattle as he will, it makes no difference. He's a fraud.
Suppose I am building an aeroplane. While I’m doing it, N. Ferguson is rattling that it won’t fly. I ignore him. I just keep on building my aeroplane, and it flies. The rattler keeps on rattling. So what?
N. Ferguson may rattle as he will - don’t feed the troll. Paul Krugman said that too. N. Ferguson can’t stand that.
Don't rate the guy at all - he's a seriously over-rated metropolitan who isn't even liked by his own people. Pompous,aloof and pretentious.
One of the most laughable aspects of it is the Oxford accent he ostensibly uses. Once in a while the original Scottish accent faintly comes through, but he tries to conceal it. As a foreigner, I would be OK if he tried to speak a "neutral" kind of English, to facilitate communication as much as possible, but the ostensive use he makes of pronounciation, intonation, etc., in a desperate attempt to "fit into" some kind of cultural paradigm, ring uncannily of sycophancy, turn-coatism, spinelessness and "treason". To think that there are idiots to whom this "style" is captivating... All of this is, of course, independent of the content, in which I am sure he is a solid scholar, but anyway...