Nasty Surprise If You Buy Nvidia (NVDA) Before Q4 Earnings
Вставка
- Опубліковано 30 чер 2024
- The video discusses the upcoming earnings announcement for NVIDIA and analyzes the stock's performance and expectations. The presenter expects a potential 10-20% pullback in the stock after earnings and suggests buying the dip at around $600.
Video Summary
[00:00]( • Nasty Surprise If You ... ) Chris discusses the upcoming earnings announcement for NVIDIA and shares his approach to analyzing the stock before making a buying decision.
- NVIDIA is known for representing AI and has seen significant stock growth.
- Chris explains his approach to managing expectations based on his experiences in middle school.
- By lowering expectations, Chris was able to exceed them and achieve better results.
[02:59]( • Nasty Surprise If You ... ) Chris discusses how high expectations can put selling pressure on a stock, using Nvidia as an example.
- High expectations make it harder for companies to meet or exceed them, leading to selling pressure on the stock.
- Chris has successfully used a simple approach to analyze Nvidia's earnings in the past four quarters.
- The chart shows Nvidia's earnings performance (orange line) and Wall Street's expectations (blue line).
- Nvidia's shift to AI has raised expectations, and the company must now consistently perform to meet them.
[05:58]( • Nasty Surprise If You ... ) NVIDIA stock has seen selling pressure after their report due to high expectations, while Palantir stock experienced a boost in price after low expectations were exceeded.
- NVIDIA's stock has seen selling pressure despite beating expectations.
- Palantir's stock saw a price increase after exceeding low expectations.
- NVIDIA is currently not in a position to benefit from low expectations like Palantir.
- The market has high expectations for NVIDIA, making it a crowded trade.
[08:57]( • Nasty Surprise If You ... ) Chris discusses the stock price of Nvidia and predicts a potential 10-20% pullback after earnings, suggesting a buying opportunity around $600.
- The stock price of Nvidia has crossed above $700, which is considered an important round number.
- Earnings expectations have driven the stock price up to $700, but Chris believes it may tread water around this level.
- In the past, Nvidia experienced a 20% pullback after beating earnings expectations, presenting a buying opportunity around $400-$420.
- Chris predicts a potential 10-20% pullback after the upcoming earnings, suggesting a buying opportunity around $600.
[11:56]( • Nasty Surprise If You ... ) Chris predicts a super cycle for AI, expects NVIDIA stock to reach $1,100, and suggests buying the dip at around $600.
- The market is expected to enter a super cycle for AI, with the aggregate reaching $400 billion.
- NVIDIA, Microsoft, Alphabet, and Apple are mentioned as companies that will be part of this super cycle.
- Comments from management may affect stock prices in the short term, but analysts are likely to defend the stock and raise target prices.
- Chris believes NVIDIA stock will reach $1,100 in the future and suggests buying the dip at around $600.
Hit 200k today. Thank you for all the knowledge and nuggets you had thrown my way over the last months. Started with 17k in last month 2024 Investing with Juliana Heidi
Wow that's huge, how do you make that
much monthly?
Honestly? I'm so excited. Juliana Heidi strategy has normalized winning trades for me also. and it's a huge milestone for me looking back to how it all started
The first time we had tried, we invested $5,000 and after a week we received $23,400. That really helped us a lot to pay our bills.
Most people are retiring this year and has nothing to show for. But I assure you it's never late to get your financial life together again.. All thanks to JuLiana for I and my family...
Wow wow please is there any way to reach her services, I work 3 jobs and trying to pay off my loan for a while now, please help me..
Oops. Did this age well?
Waiting for $600? 😂
I agree that many people are considering NVDA as the "Stock of the year." However, I'm curious about which stocks could potentially become the next Nvidia in terms of growth over the next decade. I've allocated $200k for investment, aiming to retire comfortably.
I think the next big thing will be A.I. For enduring growth akin to Nvidia, it's vital to avoid impulsive decisions driven by short-term fluctuations. Prioritize patience and a long-term perspective consider financial advisory for informed buying and selling decisions.
Facing a similar situation, I sought advice from an CFP. Through portfolio restructuring and diversification with good ETFs, S&P 500 and growth stocks, I've turned my portfolio around from $200k to over $800k in a few years.
She goes by ‘’Jessica Annabelle Rupp’ I suggest you look her up. To be honest, I almost didn't buy the idea of letting someone handle growing my finance, but so glad I did.
Thank you! I entered her full name into my browser, and her website came out on top. I filled her form and i hope she gets back to me soon.
@@Shultz4334😂😂😂😂 what da sha😂😂😂
This will not age well
it didn't
and... I was right!
I bought the dip before earnings at $666. And then it shot thru the roof after earnings. If it fell after earnings I’d just buy more. Win no matter the outcome
how about you cant buy the dip and it keeps going up fifty every day then u missed the whole run
after the massive dip 3 days before earnings, this was a clear buying opportunity the big boys set this up for big expectations with a dip pre-earnings to ensure a big run up after earnings.
holding onto 4007 NVDA shares (sold 101 shares last week for $731.42/share, a nearly *400% PROFIT* had to trim a bit as its my largest position taking up more than 38% of my account!!!!) definitely buying MORE (about 150 shares) BEFORE earnings when the NVDA pre earnings DIP kicks in at about 3:30pm EST on Wednesday 2/21/24!!!!! I love me some NVDA and was looking for some extra motivation to buy some shares before the earnings, which you HAVE given me with your 'warning' 🤣😅😂🤣😅🤣😂 thanks bro!!!
Great advice if you like to miss large upsides. Win some and lose some.
Inexperienced investors may not realize that stock movements are not solely influenced by publicly available earnings and revenue forecasts. Instead, they are often driven by "whisper numbers," undisclosed figures shared privately by analysts with select clients. For NVDA, the whispered earnings and revenue projections stand at $5 and $22 billion respectively, surpassing the publicly stated consensus. I’m just a dumb retail investor, but I’m betting on the whisper numbers. And if they are wrong and the share price falls back meaningfully…well…I’ll buy more. But if it doesn’t, at least I’m on the train riding with a great company.
I hear ya, man. Not to mention, if you sell within a year, you're getting hammered by the mafia taxes being extorted from your gains by the feds and likely your state, too. I'm holding for at least a year.
Opps! NVDA is up on earnings. Dang, hate when that happens
I just found your channel and I like what you analyze. Very wise and experienced in my opinion. I subscribed so please continue doing good work👍👍👍
Announce stock split immediately after earnings!!!!!
Hope you are right. I think they announce split after second quarter if we continue to rise, correct then rise again.
Would love to see that, would expect it at current price. But it will probably dip 10-15% after earnings falls short of a split. But then we can’t have the market dictate our split. We gotta just do as planned. Here’s the deal, if we don’t announce a stock split we drop 10-15%, if we do, we’ll bounce 15-20%
@@danbryda3849 guess that didnt happen
If you're up on the stock and you are a "stock trader" then sell before earnings. If you are an investor then don't sell because there is more upside to this stock. NVDA stock pulled back after the last 2 earnings report but yet the stock continues to move higher from those previous earnings report. From $425-ish to it's current price of $739-ish. You can try to time the market . You might get lucky. Then again you might miss the pop to the upside and possibly a stock split announcement. Good luck to all
If the top analysts from 15 banks say Nvidia‘s going to beat the forecast by 10% I would not listen to UA-camrs. Or where have you been in January 2023 to tell us to buy it
Me too
The problem is that they can’t do right at earning no matter what. Unless they best expectations by 40%, and announce immediate resuming of china sales the stock will go down. Way too much expectations. So much for our upcoming stock split opportunity as we’ll be spending the next 3 months trying to get back to 700 again. 😞
@@danbryda3849That may happen. Expectations are high, but listen to what he said. He’s waiting for the dip to buy. He’s not the only one. The shares will most likely come down significantly on the 21st, it just hasn’t been acting right lately, but it won’t stay there for long. I’m not selling a damn thing no matter how low it goes in a week! This is a hold until at least next winter.
Facts
I am buying a straddle on Tuesday
Thanks for this analysis! I did sell a vertical spread on the stock, but with a May expiration. As such, volatility crush will be huge after the announcement. The only Mag 7 stock that missed expectations so far is Tesla, and it has popped back up almost to resistance. The stock may go down in the short term, but if so it should pop back up quickly! I also subscribed!
Thanks much
SMCI is looking at NVDA saying, "Hold my beer."
get in tuesday ! its going to $3000 EASY!!!!
Lol
small float you dumb boat!!!@@parkerhenry1987
This is not age well. 😂
@jajaja7 At the time though......🤣
This video top of my feed this morning, good job algorithm.
Excellent content
U can buy nvidia 30 percent higher after earnings if was a good forcast. 😂
Nice insight, thank you so much 😊 just one question why’re there so many high expectations on Nvidia? I mean it looks like it’s a once in a lifetime opportunity to invest in like apple, Microsoft, alphabet, Amazon , Tesla etc, what if it doesn’t go down? What should I do then, let it slide? By the way I still waiting for for a Rolex watch from AD… and it doesn’t look like I will get it in any foreseeable future… sad reality…. Anyway looking forward to your recommendations
Spot on. I have low buy orders for APO, Amazon, TSM, and GOOG hoping to do some discount shopping in the near future
Trade the Trend, which is UP, don't sell .. buy the dips. "Wealth comes through accumulation of upward trending stocks."
I'd be willing to bet my eye teeth there is NO chance of a 20% pull back
This aged well 😂😂😂😂😂 NVIDIA just mooned again 🌖. Dear NVIDIA thank you for allowing me to buy my beach front land!!!
Sold my NVDA at 731 got it at 479. Very happy with the gain but NO WAY am I holding through earnings Wednesday. I will buy it back cheaper in the near future.
Seems obvious, but market usually does NOT what is obvious. I gave up years ago trying to time and predict market movements .. if it is a good company, with growth potential and well managed, .. ya buy and HOLD.
@KrustyKlown Yeah I was planning on holding. But the stock went from 479 to 731 very fast so it's time to sell. It got there quickly. Im not looking for a long term gain yet or to be greedy. and wanted to preserve the massive gain.
I basically did the same thing out at $725 got in at 425 if it goes up congrats
im new , so do you actually make that profit difference, how much of the profits are lost in taxes and stuff , specially if im getting it from outside the US ,
Your short-term capital gains taxes, and any state taxes on top of that will destroy your profit. It is better to hold for a year to incur a lower tax bill. Your money, your tax bill 😂
Okay. That will be 30% drop from current $797.00 to $600.00 pull back. mmm no. I don't think so, but we will see. I found other analysts who share your view, and that is what happened last earnings report, big pull back to around $400 from over $500. This time seems different. last time most were bearish on Nvidia, this time the bears seem to be wavering, maybe a oopsie moment. Certainly an interesting one.
Really interesting take. Going to be watching the stock closely for that dip! Love me a discount!
Any dip got bought, I doubt it will go down to 600 unless the whole market has a big correction
Nope it did not fall to $600
Great analysis thank you.
They do say...buy on the rumor and sell on the fact. I agree that there may be a mean selloff after earnings.
Which may last a couple of days or even hours before it rebounds 👍
BUy Nvidia after the earnings, when it's 1500, then its cheap.
Jensen Huang godfather of AI and the Godfather of conference calls. something to keep in mind.👍 Great report 👍
yea till come collapsing down probably to 600, then possibly back up to new highs in a few months
Hope your going to make an update video on Thursday.
You are an excellent teacher and distributor of knowledge! I have learned so much from you in past week since I discovered you. I’ve watched some of your videos multiple times even. Thank you so much for presenting the concepts and analysis in such a lucid manner. Your videos are superb!!! 😊 Looking forward to your future content.
I clicked on this video just to tell everyone whatever X amount youre gonna put into Nvidia buy it with 50% cash pile and if it dips on earnings buy 25% 25% on different days odds are if it dips on earnings I can promise you it's gonna get bought back up within days and specially the fact there's 6T$ in money markets about to come back into stocks
Time in the market beats timing the market
Edit: you don't want to be me and do a meta near the money and it jumps 20% in a day or 2 weeks ago writing a 19$ covered call on pltr the night b4 earnings because the premium was to nice, don't wait for a better "premium" aka price over potential gains
So, I think I'm happy I didn't listen to a youtuber
Nvidia will skyrocket after earnings. It will be 850. Im buying and not spending time in fear
@asif9700 You're dumb
@@asif9700 Broadcom hit its one target of $1,100 in approximately 1 week.
Just sold my NVDA for a round 50% profit, stock markets are digesting recent gains and the higher for longer narrative after recent inflation reports and NVDA as the focus of the upswing might well be a catalyst for a broader dip.
Long term I'm very very bullish for late 2024/5, crypto, AI especially so I'll be buying any further downside or picking up the middle if it doesn't come.
Ugh, you didn't make 50% profit, especially if you're paying short-term capital gains and to your state on top of that.
@@shanew7361 Sure if you want to be pedantic, but if the stock dips 15-20% and I buy back in the trade still pays off. I made a > 80% return last year after tax, so I'm doing okay.
In 2023, META ran from $125 to $354. Now is a whopping $473 stock. Everyone said to sell at $350. So many cry babies.
How did SMCI fall under the radar?? 84.00 54 week low to $1000.00
Timing the market is a mugs game ..........that is not investing but gambling .
Took a position on SMGB just after launch and that covers my semiconductor exposure
If you bought Apple stock when the first Iphone came out an argued about the stock price you would feel pretty stupid now looking back at the path it took. Facebook earnings really showed the potential of AI. That is what Nividia needed. A company earnings boosted by use of AI. Nividia is 80% market share. AMD isn't rattled this quarter because Lisa Siu knows it is still early in the game for this year. People are also rebuying the stock after selling it, seeing how much it has gone up. Adding to the stock rise.
I completely agree with your statement.
this could have a run after earning the same as SMCI ???? or a 150 point game and drop as a rock .
Your audio has some static noise
Wait, I'm confused. Are you saying Nvidia will drop exactly the next day after earnings or that it will start dropping a few days after earnings? Can you please clarify my question that would be amazing. Thank you 🙏
Hi Jose, the historical price and earnings data suggests that NVDA stock sees a drop within the two weeks following their earnings report, independent of whether the company beats or misses on their results. This is simply an influence of traders and investors taking profits after the report which can create a "buy the dip" opportunity.
2025 EPS >$30 we will be much higher baby.
Great and wise analysis! there is no way I will buy before earnings... too risky this time. If NVDA overachieves, then the price will go up by 20% max. If it misses however, then it will go down by at least 25% (like PALO today).... Risk-to-reward not attractive . I am out.
Well, this didn’t age very well…
You should have had year-to-date numbers much more accurate like if you said 200 and some odd percent I would have been fine with that but you clearly looked down and looked at a number that you had written down. On the different market something 235.88% however that's when I'm making this comment so slightly off from that would have been reasonable to.
$1,000 next week shorty
This video did not age well at all.😂😂
There are practically no short positions on Nvidia stock. Last I checked, it is 1.x%. The selling is all institutional buyers getting out and likely already positioned themselves with options or other means for a downfall. And probably a whole bunch of retailers who were stupid enough to buy and now realizing oops. Called Buyers Squeeze. At the same time, it seems kind of nuts to be calling for Nvidia dropping down to $500 in a single day. Let's say it ends today at 650 to 630. To Go down to 500 from that is like a 23% drop. I know it's possible over time (which it has done before) but come on people. In a single day?! SMH.
LMMFAO...it's $800 pps after a blowout earnings report...NVDA isn't just any stock...You guys have left a massive amount of cash on the table...LOL...
my opinion nvda is tesla train 2.0. Everyone is scared as it continues to crush bears. I loaded on 1400c for july. average cost 3.00
So glad I didn’t listen, and bought before earnings.
Kiss $600 goodbye, right now at $736.
many stocks have in the last few months outperformed nvda, how about micro super comp
SMCI is like ROKU or OKTA, off to the moon and then back down to earth.
you better check SMCI
I own NVDA for the long term and bought into SMCI starting 2/2/24 and SCMI has made my portfolio go from $80,000 to $135,000 in ten trading days!
Please do! Did you buy Friday morning at 1065? Then lose 250 in one day?
Perfect setup for profit taking. I wonder what would PLTR do when NVDA drops 5-10%?
Just look at SMCI. It is still enjoying meteoric rally daily since its last earning.😂🎉
This aged well lmao
You are wrong. Rocket 🚀
CJ let’s gooooo
Ooooopps!!!!
2024 AI crab like 2000 tech bubble semi is cyclical things like iPhone after u have one you don't need one for a while
I feel like pypl did this strategy
PayPal is dead money
Oof.
This guy hasn’t seen smci apparently
lol
Stock split or share buyback incoming!
NVDA earnings beat. oops 🤦♂️
you people thinking NVDA is going explode higher right after earnings are setting yourselves up for failure. His analysis is correct. Yes sure it could spike higher but it's more likely to flatline or most likely DROP right after earnings.
BUY SIGNAL
Wrong wrong wrong!!!!
Do a straddle play on NVDA right before the market closes on wednesday February 21st easiest way to make money....
what do you mean ?
@@joel-gf7gh Do you know what a straddle play ?
I trade options on stocks. NVDA It will have a massive drop or a massive run to the upside when it comes out with it's earnings. You do a straddle play on it. You will make money either way doing a straddle play if you trade options on NVDA ok ?
You use the best real life metaphors and examples I’ve ever heard for investing principles. Nice work.
This didn't age well
Nah..buy guys buy
You might get crushed on this video 🤦🏻♂️
Like all these guys who make predictions - they all believe they know; and they have a crystal ball. FAIL another so called expert talking away.....NOBODY KNOWS
Lmao!!!
SMCI has outperformed NVDA in the last year.
Look like it crash every three quarter
Do not buy Nvda 😂😂🤦♀️
Surprise about NVDA:
During the cooling phase of the earth, life evolved from microbial pond scum
I just admit that, I missed the boat on NVDA and I have no desire to buy it at these levels, there are other stocks out there.
Nvda usually drops about 50 points after earnings regardless of how it did. No one knows. Anyone who tells you otherwise is lying. I'm anticipating a stock split announcement. Just my guess. I don't have any inside info or a crystal ball.
Nvidia might drop might sky rocket. There is no competition in their field right now.
you need a different mic.
Dropped over 10% the last few days, before earnings. Now, after earnings if it goes up 10%, thats just where it was a few days ago
What a joke😂
NVDA smashes expectations and drops 10%. I bought the stock in 2020 and there is no reason to hold it anymore. It just went parabolic. I am just in boring stuff and watching the clownery.
🤦♀️🤦♀️🤦♀️
Nvidia is NOT palantire. 🤣🤪
I bought more after seeing your video weeks ago. It’s going up more
Always wrong this channel is worse than Cramer 😂😂😂😂😂😂
down 6%!!!
This lousy stock is making it difficult to profit from covered calls for income lately. These parabolic impulse waves are like chickens running around without their heads
Lol covered calls 😂
Bruh you do know that stocks like Ford exist or just google good stocks for covered calls. It literally tells you all the good ones 🤦♂️
Failed approach