I agree, I can't see estimating the value of a constellation when we don't know what it will be. There is another option that wasn't mentioned, but I'm not sure I can share the news here. At least all my posts have failed so far. :/ Check the news for a new U.S. air defense system. It may include space based interceptors. That would be interesting! I would expect Rocket Lab would be involved in such a project too! =)
I can’t think of many acquisition options right now. Maybe planet labs? Probably not though. EO seems to be stuck with govt and intel contracts currently.
Vince I think RL has its hands full launching enough Neutrons to satisfy the demand claimed. I'm also a huge skeptic of Starlink. Starlink seems to be premised on the idea that the entire world has suffered from a communications regulator failure, like the US has. The reality is that every wealthy nation will have soon have ubiquitous fiber broadband and everyone else will have ubiquitous and cheap 4G. Meaning the market for space based broadband isn't what its cracked up to be. Starlink is making billions in revenue. Its also spending billions. So, we'll see. Secure comms is a serious market. My only quibble is whether the US military has already satisfied itself with previous purchases/stakes. I guess the question there is really technical. Just how secure/robust are we talking? Genuinely "jam-proof" signals are very hard to do. Or maybe PB will be true to his word and wait for the next big thing? My short term ambition is to watch Neutron out-compete Starship. That would be satisfying on several levels.
Just one side note. I'm not entirely sure that Earth imaging is over-fulfilled right now. Sure you can get pretty decent images anywhere on Earth if you're prepared to wait a while. But near real time? Nope. The ultimate high precision mapping solution that you need for the sake of genuine autonomous driving. That needs near real time, high precision imaging. And that needs a lot more satellites. Or a combination of optical and SAR - and better adaptive optics would be neat. So keep an eye on that.
Speculation: I think another potential acquisition for RKLB would be ASTS. AST recently strikes spectrum deal Ligado on top of having access to MNO partners(AT&T, Verizon ) spectrum.
Since AST make their antenna and they it seem like the core tech of their bussiness is the antenna I think you might be right... it would fit what Peter and Adam said about buying a payload company (in telecom a payload is the antenna)... But it feel a little expensif... may be they will wait for the company to run out of cash in the middle of the constallation construction like it happen to so many telecom sat company (Oneweb, iridium...) and then buy the company... by then Neutron would be up and running...
RKLB is ~ 70% of my portfolio now. That said, I like none of these space infrastructure plans. Build the best spacecrafts and space-machines you can. If your business is shovels, build shovels. Don't go digging! TSMC became what it is *because* they made a point to NOT compete with their customers. Those who did went down for obvious reasons. They bet the market they already owned for some greener pastures. Turned out, there was plenty of capable competition already established, their now ex-customers. So they lost in both markets. Be like the TSMC of space industry. The moment I see you digging with your shiny new shovel instead of selling it, I will have to reevaluate my investment.
Hey Vince, how are you. I hope all is well; we made it to 31 again….see you at 35 brother 🚀🚀🚀🚀RKLB---to infinity and beyond🚀🚀🚀🚀🚀😈🎶Rocket Labbbbbb….and I’m going to be holding for a long long time 🎶
I agree, I can't see estimating the value of a constellation when we don't know what it will be.
There is another option that wasn't mentioned, but I'm not sure I can share the news here. At least all my posts have failed so far. :/
Check the news for a new U.S. air defense system. It may include space based interceptors. That would be interesting!
I would expect Rocket Lab would be involved in such a project too! =)
Great video Vince 👍
SPB said on multiple occasions the next major space application hasn't been thought of, let alone implemented. I'll leave it at that
“Some may say This, and some may say That; but I say there’s no knowing and no telling; and mark my words, I am right……”
I'm still here with rocket lab 🚀
I can’t think of many acquisition options right now. Maybe planet labs? Probably not though. EO seems to be stuck with govt and intel contracts currently.
Kepler seems like the best fit.
Or at least that workspace - smaller(relatively) private/secure networks.
Banking in particular.
Vince I think RL has its hands full launching enough Neutrons to satisfy the demand claimed. I'm also a huge skeptic of Starlink. Starlink seems to be premised on the idea that the entire world has suffered from a communications regulator failure, like the US has. The reality is that every wealthy nation will have soon have ubiquitous fiber broadband and everyone else will have ubiquitous and cheap 4G. Meaning the market for space based broadband isn't what its cracked up to be. Starlink is making billions in revenue. Its also spending billions. So, we'll see. Secure comms is a serious market. My only quibble is whether the US military has already satisfied itself with previous purchases/stakes. I guess the question there is really technical. Just how secure/robust are we talking? Genuinely "jam-proof" signals are very hard to do. Or maybe PB will be true to his word and wait for the next big thing?
My short term ambition is to watch Neutron out-compete Starship. That would be satisfying on several levels.
Vince, I would merge AST Space Mobil with RL, and raise $1b in cash at the same time. This is how LMT became the leader in Defense.
Just one side note. I'm not entirely sure that Earth imaging is over-fulfilled right now. Sure you can get pretty decent images anywhere on Earth if you're prepared to wait a while. But near real time? Nope. The ultimate high precision mapping solution that you need for the sake of genuine autonomous driving. That needs near real time, high precision imaging. And that needs a lot more satellites. Or a combination of optical and SAR - and better adaptive optics would be neat. So keep an eye on that.
Speculation: I think another potential acquisition for RKLB would be ASTS. AST recently strikes spectrum deal Ligado on top of having access to MNO partners(AT&T, Verizon ) spectrum.
I highly doubt they would
It doesn’t offer the likely potential for vertical integration, does it?
Since AST make their antenna and they it seem like the core tech of their bussiness is the antenna I think you might be right... it would fit what Peter and Adam said about buying a payload company (in telecom a payload is the antenna)... But it feel a little expensif... may be they will wait for the company to run out of cash in the middle of the constallation construction like it happen to so many telecom sat company (Oneweb, iridium...) and then buy the company... by then Neutron would be up and running...
I brought into global star very recently because I think it is the most viable option for rocket lab to acquire
Are you worried about the reverse split? Typically stocks drop off a good amount after the reverse split.
....GSTAR's market cap is over $3 billion... There is no chance rocket lab acquires them because they can't.
RKLB is ~ 70% of my portfolio now. That said, I like none of these space infrastructure plans.
Build the best spacecrafts and space-machines you can. If your business is shovels, build shovels. Don't go digging!
TSMC became what it is *because* they made a point to NOT compete with their customers. Those who did went down for obvious reasons.
They bet the market they already owned for some greener pastures. Turned out, there was plenty of capable competition already established, their now ex-customers.
So they lost in both markets.
Be like the TSMC of space industry.
The moment I see you digging with your shiny new shovel instead of selling it, I will have to reevaluate my investment.
Hey Vince, how are you. I hope all is well; we made it to 31 again….see you at 35 brother 🚀🚀🚀🚀RKLB---to infinity and beyond🚀🚀🚀🚀🚀😈🎶Rocket Labbbbbb….and I’m going to be holding for a long long time 🎶
This report is already outdated. Spire's market cap has doubled to 491 million!
My bet: a merger with ASTS. They need each other. It will be a win-win situation. As simple as that!😊
100%. Would be a match made in heaven (pun kind of intended).
Nah, within 2-5 years space will be dead. Nobody will want to know, they are going to be very busy surviving.